For all the rhetoric and rumors about the Mets possibly shopping Matt Harvey this offseason, we discovered there are 217 million reasons why it’s a bad idea. The cost of elite starting pitching is high on the free agent market. 

David Price got that huge contract because he’s an ace. For his career, he’s 104-56 with a 3.09 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and a 126 ERA+. His average season is 16-9 with 34 starts, 227 IP, and 216 K. He’s won a Cy Young, and he was second in the voting last year after he went 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA, 161 ERA+, and a 2.78 FIP. By any measure, he’s an ace, and he’s getting paid accordingly. 
The Red Sox needed an ace, so they paid a lot to get him. Remember their prior ace, Jon Lester, was traded to the A’s before he signed a free agent deal with the Cubs. The Red Sox got Yoenis Cespedes in the deal, who they flipped for Rick Porcello. They gave him a four year $82.5 million contract extension. Last year, which was year one of the deal, Porcello was 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA, 87 ERA+, and a 4.17 FIP. Not very good.

Essentially, the Red Sox turned their ace into a below league average pitcher. This happened because they got too cute. They really liked their chances to re-sign Lester so they traded him to bring another MLB player back. They should’ve just looked to lock up Lester, who reviewed a 6 year $155 million deal. The Cubs outbid the Red Sox by $22 million. The Red Sox 6 year $22 million offer was much higher than their previous four year $70 million offer before the Cespedes trade. 

The end result was the Red Sox getting outbid for Lester, trading away the player they reviewed for Lester, and overpaying the pitcher they received for that player. Effectively, the Red Sox traded Lester for Porcello. It’s why they had to give such a huge contract to Price. They needed a top of the rotation starter. It’s a warning for the Mets. 

Harvey is an ace. In his young career, he has a 144 ERA+ and a 2.65 FIP. Both numbers are better than Price, who just received $217 million.  Also, Price has been noted as a poor postseason performer. After the World Series, we knew Harvey could rise to the challenge and be dominant when the Mets need him most. 

This is not a guy you trade. Not even if he won’t work out a contract extension with you now. You don’t trade an ace like this because the return may very well become an overpaid Porcello. That’s even worse for the Mets because they don’t have the Red Sox financial wherewithal to overcome such a big mistake. 

There may come a time Harvey leaves the Mets. That time better come when it’s clear the Mets can’t re-sign him and have no hopes of winning anything. I doubt that’ll be the case with this young rotation. 

Harvey needs to stay because the price of his departure would be too high.