Noah Syndergaard
The year was 1996. The Mets were supposed to open the season with a trio of pitchers dubbed Generation K. Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher were all supposed to usher in the next era of great Mets pitching. They were supposed to win multiple Cy Youngs and World Series titles.
It never happened.
Bill Pulsipher
Pulsipher was the first to arrive on the scene. In his first year in AA, a 20 year old Pulsipher pitched 201.0 innings. The prior year he only pitched 139.2 innings. The following year, 1995, Pulsipher would pitch in AAA and get called up to the majors. He threw 218.1 innings. Pulsipher wouldn’t pitch in 1996 as he had a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.
In Pulsipher’s rookie year, he made 17 starts. He never reached that plateau again. His last major league appearance came in 2005 when he was 31 years old. When Pulsipher made those five appearances, it was the first time he pitched in the big leagues since 2001. Pulsipher finished his career going 13-19 with a 5.15 ERA in 46 starts and 60 relief appearances.
Paul Wilson
Unlike Pulsipher, Wilson burst on the scene in 1996. He was the first overall pick in the 1994 draft after dominating at Florida State. In 1995, Wilson pitched his first season of professional ball, and he pitched well in his 186.2 innings. So well in fact, that the Mets called him up to the majors. He went 5-12 with a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts. His season would end as he needed arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder.
Wilson would never pitch for the Mets again. He would be part of a trade on 2000 for a fourth outfielder in Bubba Trammel and a bullpen arm in Rick White. He finished his career going 40-58 with a 4.86 ERA in 153 starts and 17 relief appearances.
Jason Isringhausen
Without a doubt, Isringhausen had the best career of the Generation K pitchers, and he had to go to the bullpen to do it.
Isringhausen burst on the scene in 1995. In 14 starts with the Mets, he went 9-2 with a 2.81 ERA. Even though he only pitched in half a season, he was so impressive that he finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. While he may not have been the most heralded pitcher of Generation K, he had the most success out of all of them when he was first called up. However, that success would not last as like the other two pitchers, Isringhausen’s arm was a ticking timebomb.
In 1994, the year before Isringhausen pitched in the majors, he threw 193.1 innings. The year before? He threw only 90.1 innings. In his career, Isringhausen would need shoulder surgery and three Tommy John surgeries. This doesn’t even include surgery for a broken wrist because he lost a fight with a water cooler.
Isringhausen would eventually make two All Star teams due to his work as a closer. He would record 300 saves. The last seven were with the Mets in 2011 when he came back on a minor league deal. At that point, he served as a mentor to a young bullpen. It was a nice bookend towards the end of his career. The former young hothead with arm troubles became a veteran leader.
Generation K
These three heralded young pitchers were ruined by the Mets organization. They were needlessly pushed beyond their limits in the minors and majors. As a result, they had a series of shoulder and elbow injuries. The heralded trio would never appear in the same rotation.
Epilogue
It’s been four years since Isringhausen has retired, and now people want to interview him when we talk about how prospects should be handled. Here’s what he revealed about how those Mets handled prospects:
Jason Isringhausen: In the minors if we didn't pitch 9 innings, we got a talking to. We didn't watch pitch counts as much as we do today
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) March 3, 2016
Twenty years later, the Mets have a new trio, who for some reason don’t have a great nickname like Generation K. While Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey have had Tommy John surgery, the Mets handle their young aces much better now. They took better care of their pitchers during the rehabilitation process. Last year, we saw deGrom and Harvey team up with Noah Syndergaard to pitch the Mets into the World Series.
This was supposed to happen 20 years ago. It’s happening now. So next time, the Mets are too patient with a player, or a player or his agent voice concerns over a pitcher’s workload, remember Mets fans were robbed of seeing three aces in one staff due to over usage of the young pitchers.
I’m sure innings limits, six man rotations, and skipped starts will be a story line at some point in 2016. When it does, embrace it because the Mets not using that forward thinking might’ve cost at least one World Series title. Young pitchers are fragile, and they need to he handled as such. If you don’t, the workload could lead to injuries and/or ruined careers. Next thing you know, the window to win a World Series is slammed shut.
I’m not willing to see another chance go by the wayside due to some meaningless starts again.
Last year, the seminal moment of the Spring was David Wright and Bobby Parnell throwing out Noah Syndergaard’s lunch. This year it was Dominic Smith‘s turn to learn a lesson.
This past weekend, Smith got a hold of one, and he thought it was out. He didn’t flip the bat or admire and pose after hitting it. No, he broke right into his homerun trot. He wasn’t hustling out of the box. When the ball hit the wall, Smith wound up with a single instead of a double.
A ten year veteran might get away with it. Not a AA player. It’s why Terry Collins approached him about the moment. For his part, Smith seemed to get it vowing he would never did it again. He said, “there’s no place for me not to hustle out of the box like that. It’s a learning experience.”
Look, this isn’t about taking fun out of the game. He wasn’t chastised for celebrating a homerun. The manager talked to him about a lack of hustle. It was fair for Collins to do so. Smith is a 20 year old kid with a lot of promise. It’s up to Collins in the little time they have together to help point out to Smith what we needs to do to take the next step.
Hustling out of the box is a fair and legitimate concern. It was never an issue for Smith before, and it probably won’t be in the future. However, Collins took advantage of an opportunity to talk to him. Smith will be a better player for it, which is saying something.
Hopefully, this moment will be Thor’s moment. It will be what we will be talking about one day during his rise to greatness.
All winter long, Mets fans seemed strangely resolute that neither Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom should cut their hair. Thor had some fun with the fans on the topic:
This offseason neither Thor nor deGrom chopped off their locks. It wouldn’t make sense. Why? As Archie Bunker would say, “The Bible. If you read it, you’d know.”
In the Bible story of Samson and Delilah (Judges 16), we learned that Samson’s great power was due to his hair. Once his hair was chopped, his power was gone. It would lead to his ultimate demise.
As major leaguers say, part of deGrom’s power comes from his hair. Apparently, hitters are having trouble picking up deGrom’s pitches because either they are distracted by his hair or because the hair temporarily hides the ball. With deGrom’s repertoire, the ability to hide the ball, however he does it, makes his pitches all the more dangerous.
I’m not sure if deGrom cutting his hair would lead to his demise. What I do know is that it’s not wise to tempt God. Please don’t cut your hair deGrom.
In honor of Dr. Seuss’ birthday, here is my adapted Mets Dr. Seuss story to read with your little Mets fan.
“One Strike, Two Strikes, Three Strikes, You’re Out”
One Strike. Two Strikes. Three Strikes. You’re out.
Yes. Some are curves. And some are fast. Some are slow. Some are from Matz.
Some are from Jake. With strikes batters take. Even if these are batters that rake. Why do batters who rake take pitches from Jake? I do not know. Maybe the pitch did break.
Some pitchers are thin. Colon is fat. The fat one can pounce off the mound with the agility of a cat.
From here to there, from here to there, strikeouts are everywhere.
Some strikes bring heat. The heat is neat and sends batters to their seat.
Oh me! Oh my! Oh me! Oh my! What a lot of strikes go by.
Some are two seamers. Some are four. Some are just mean and batters want no more.
How do they do it? I cannot say. But I bet the pitchers trained very hard along the way.
We see the pitches come. We see the pitches go. Some are fast. And some are slow. Some are high. And some are low. Not one of them is like another. Don’t ask us why. Go ask your mother.
Say! Look at the strikeouts? One, two, three . . . . How many strikeouts do I see? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. The pitcher has eleven. Eleven! That’s nothing new. The next pitcher will do it too!
Swing! Swing! Swing! You ever see such a thing? Not one swing hit anything. But we know the pitchers have the ball on the string. The string makes the ball do anything. So . . . if you like to Swing! Swing! at anything just swing at the ball on a string and the strikeouts will sting.
Who am I? My name is Thor. When I strike someone out. I want more. It is so good. It is so right. The batters strike out all day and night. And when I strike them out, Oh Dear! The batters have had it up to here!
We like the strikes. We like them in threes. Each strike sets up a hitter, you see. We like the strikes and this is why: the strikes makes outs and batters go bye-bye.
Hello there, Zack. How do you do? Tell me, tell how do you plan your attack? How did you do that? Was the pitch new? Please tell me Zack. I do not like this batter at all. A lot of strikes the umpire did call. A National, a Phillie, a Marlin, a Brave. Oh! He’s out! The strikeout was my fave!
Oh dear! Oh dear! The batter is in fear. How does the pitcher throw that sphere? Why did the crowd just cheer? It seems another strike out is near. Say look! The ball did reappear. But he is out. So you can cheer. Again, cheer for the strikeouts my dear.
The batter is old. The batter is cold. The pitcher has a pitch that is bold. The pitch is off. The batter will fold. The pitch is off. The batter did fold. The pitcher’s pitch was bold. The batter is cold. The batter is old. And now the story of the at bat has been told.
The batter took a look. His confidence is shook. On the pitch, he did look. On the pitch, he did look. It was a hook, and the confidence was shook. We saw him sit and give a look. He took a look at the hook and he shook. The hook did the deed for the pitch the batter just took. SO . . . what good is a look at the hook he just took?
The batters were out, and they’ll lose some sleep. But not even counting sheep will help them sleep. By the light of the moon, by light of the star, they struck out all night on pitches near and far. They would never walk. Sitting in the dugout they are.
I do not like this ump so well. All he does is yell, yell, yell. This game is turning into a route. When the Mets strike all the batters out. The batters are quiet as a mouse. All they can do now is rouse.
At our house, we have stands. Those stands are full of fans. With two strikes, the fans give the pitcher a hand. Hands from fans is very good. Have you heard a hand from fans? You should.
I like to play. How I like to play! So, if I may, I play everyday. In May, I play everyday. I play everyday in May.
It is fun to win if you win with a grin. I grin and win with pitchers who do everything. I grin wide, and the batters heads hang low, their swings were so bad, and too slow.
This batter I think will blink. His strikeout will be written in ink. He really does stink. He hates to stink, and stink, and stink. The stink makes his face turn pink. The pink from the stink is after a pitcher’s wink. The batter hates the stink, the pink, and the wink. SO . . . if you really stink, the pitcher will give you a wink, after the strikeout is written in ink.
Hop! Hop! Hop! The batter went plop. Familia likes to hop from batter flop to batter flop. Familia hops from the mound and then . . . Hop! Hop! The ball goes from the catcher to third and around. Familia likes to hop all day and night from mound to ground and ground to mound. Why does he hop, hop, hop? The rally did stop.
Shush! Shush! Shush! Shush! Groan! Groan! Groan! Groan! Pitchers have fans making hitters shush and groan. All batters who shush and groan will have better luck when they return home.
Who is this Met? Say! He doesn’t break a sweat. You may never yet met a Met, I bet, who will let a batter make him sweat.
Did you ever make a batter see red? Did you ever strike a batter out and send them to bed? Did you ever have a batter shaking his head wondering how? Well, Mets pitchers can do it. They know how. If you ever did, you should. These things are fun and fun is good.
Hello! Hello! Are you there? Hello? You’re up to bat, hello! I said hello. Can you hear me Joe? Oh no. I can not hear you at all. I did not hear your call at all. I was not paying attention; want to know why. I’m not willing to face a Mets pitcher. Good-bye!
From near to far, from here to there, the Mets are striking batters out everywhere. These young Mets are called aces. They strike out the batters each one faces. Their pitches are fast . . . so fast, they say, they strikeout batters everyday.
Who am I? I’m the Dark Knight. I throw the ball with great might. My slider has bite and the spin is real tight. When I pitch to strikeout a batter without much fight, I pitch the ball at the right height. Then I say, “You have no fight against a slider that will bite!” And I give batters great fright as they strike out all night. So . . . if your plight is my might all night, you might swing with fright at the pitches from the Dark Knight.
Our house is a place called Citi. During each game all we feel for batters is pity. Would opponents like to play against our pitchers in a game? Come down! There’s only one great pitching staff in town.
Look at we did in the park in the dark. We only win at home. A visitor’s chances of winning are stark. We will win at our house. The win totals will grow and grow. All of baseball will take notice. Our pitching prowess will you will soon know.
And now good night. It is time to sleep. Our pitchers will soon put you to sleep as the hole you’re in is too deep. Today is gone. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one. Every day, from here to there, Mets pitchers are striking out batters everywhere.
It is surreal to think it was only 12 years ago that David Wright was walking into Mike Piazza‘s clubhouse. Now, with Piazza being retired, it’s now Piazza’s turn to walk into Wright’s clubhouse:
For the Twitter folks: David Wright welcomes Mike Piazza to #Mets camp on Sunday morning: pic.twitter.com/Yq9k7jLkxz
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) February 28, 2016
Back then, everyone on the team knew how good Wright was going to be. They saw him as their best chance of ever winning a World Series. They all took him under their wing.
Piazza mentored Wright how to handle New York and how he should listen to his body. In he following Spring Training, Carlos Beltran took Wright with him for extra workouts to show him the type of off-the-field work is needed to succeed in the major leagues. Cliff Floyd took him under his wing. Not only did he have Wright carry his luggage, he also showed him how to be a big leaguer.
It’s now Wright’s turn to return the favor. Seeing the Noah Syndergaard lunch incident last Spring, he appears ready, willing, and able. Now, it worked with Syndergaard because he was a player that wanted to get better.
There are still plenty of young Mets players who could learn a lot from Wright. Each of these players should be glued to Wright’s hip learning as much as they possibly can from him. Like Piazza, Beltran, and Floyd, Wright can teach these players how to handle New York, how to listen to your body, how to prepare for a season, and how to be a big leaguer. The one player who j think can most benefit right now from Wright’s wisdom is Michael Conforto.
Conforto is in the same spot Wright once was. He’s on a team with great players. Success in the majors seemingly came easy to him in his first half season. If the Mets do anything going forward, it’s going to be his bat that’s going to be a big part of it. He’s also still young with a lot to learn.
Like David Wright all those years ago, we all see greatness in Michael Conforto. Wright should be helping Conforto prepare himself not just for this season, but for his entire career. Helping Conforto could be the key to Wright getting that elusive World Series ring. Listening to Wright could be the key to Conforto having a long and successful Mets career. They need each other.
Who knows? Maybe 12 years from now, we will get to see Conforto welcoming a retired Wright into his clubhouse.
Last night, my son wanted to watch baseball. Fortunately, YouTube has about every game you could want to watch. For various reasons, I picked Game Three of the 2015 World Series.
What was interesting is that I never saw the telecast because I was at the game. It would not only be the first time I watched the game on TV, it would also be the first time I got to watch it with my son. From what my wife told me, he loved that game. It was great to watch it with him.
My favorite moment wasn’t him celebrating the David Wright or Curtis Granderson homeruns. It wasn’t even his the game inspired him to take out his teeball set. Surprisingly, it wasn’t even when he hit a line drive clear across the living room with him screaming “HOMERUN!” No, it was sinpler than that. It was when Lucas Duda came to bat.
My son looked up at the TV, waived and said, “Hi Duda!”
When I confirmed it was Duda by waving and saying hi to him as well, my son began saying hi to the players he remembered. At one point, I got him to scream:
I was impressed when he recognized Michael Conforto (his new favorite player) and told me he played leftfield. When I called over to my wife to let her know, her response was, “Of course he knows, you’ve been drilling it into his head.”
In any event, on what was a beautiful Spring-like day, I was never more prepared for baseball. My son is prepared too. Hopefully, he will get the chance to say, “Hi Duda” to him at Citi Field this year.
I remember back in 2000, the stories were that Bobby Valentine needed to make the World Series in order to keep his job. The amazing thing is he actually did it.
Just think about everything that had to happen that year for the Mets to make the World Series. First, the Mets had an overhaul of its outfield during the season. On Opening Day, the Mets outfield was, from left to right, Rickey Henderson–Darryl Hamilton–Derek Bell. At the end of the year, it was Benny Agbayani–Jay Payton-Derek Bell. Agbayani was only on the Opening Day roster because MLB allowed the team to have expanded rosters for their opening series in Japan.
On top of that, Todd Zeile was signed to replace John Olerud. Zeile had to become a first baseman after playing third for 10 years. Edgardo Alfonzo had to adapt from moving from the second spot in the lineup to the third spot. The Mets lost Rey Ordonez to injury and first replaced him with Melvin Mora for 96 games before trading him for the light hitting Mike Bordick. More or less, all of these moves worked. Then came the postseason.
A lot happened in the NLDS. After losing Game One, the Mets faced a quasi must win in Game Two. They were leading before Armando Benitez blew a save. I know. I’m shocked too. The Mets regained the lead, and they won the game when John Franco got a borderline third strike call against Barry Bonds. In Game Three, the Mets won on a Agbayani 13th inning walk off homerun. This was followed by Bobby Jones closing out the series on a one-hitter.
The Mets were then fortunate that the Braves lost to the Cardinals in the other NLDS series. The Mets tore through the Cardinals with new leadoff hitter Timo Perez. We saw all that luck run out in the World Series. We watched Zeile’s potential homerun land on top of the fence and bounce back. On the same play, Perez was thrown out at home. In the same game, Benitez blew the save. Unfortunately, there were no more heroics.
We saw this repeated in 2015. The epically bad Mets offense had to have its pitching hold things together until help came. Part of that required the Nationals to underperform while the Mets were fighting tooth and nail just to stay in the race.
In the NLDS, the Mets were on the verge of elimination. They weren’t eliminated because somehow, some way Jacob deGrom pitched six innings with absolutely nothing. The Mets then needed Daniel Murphy to have a game for the ages. He stole a base while no one was looking, and he hit a big homerun. It was part of an amazing run through the postseason for Murphy. Like in 2000, it came to a crashing halt in the World Series.
No matter how good your team is, it takes a lot of luck to win the World Series. Look at the 86 Mets.
In the NLCS, they barely outlasted the Astros. In Game Three, they needed a Lenny Dykstra two run homerun in the bottom of the ninth to win 6-5. In Game Five, Gary Carter hit a walk off single in the 12th to send the Mets back to Houston up 3-2. It was important because they didn’t want to face Mike Scott and his newfound abilities. With that pressure, they rallied from three down in the ninth, blew a 14th inning lead, and nearly blew a three run lead in the 16th inning.
Following this, the Mets quickly fell down 0-2 in the World Series before heading to Boston. After taking 2/3 in Boston, the Mets had to rally in the eighth just to tie Game Six. There are books that can be written not only about the 10th inning, but also Mookie Wilson‘s at bat.
First, they had to have a none on two out rally with each batter getting two strikes against them. For Calvin Schiraldi to even be in the position to meltdown, he had to be traded by the Mets to the Red Sox heading into the 1986 season. In return, the Mets got Bobby Ojeda, who won Game Three and started Game Six. John McNamara removed Schiraldi way too late and brought in Bob Stanley. His “wild pitch” in Mookie’s at bat allowed the tying run to score. You know the rest:
By the way, keep in mind Bill Buckner wasn’t pulled for a defensive replacement. Also, the Mets had to rally late from 3-0 deficit just to tie Game Seven.
We need to keep all of this is mind when setting expectations for the 2016 season. Terry Collins is right when he says World Series title or bust is unfair. We know way too much can happen between now and the World Series. Right now, the only goal should be winning the NL East. If the Mets do that, they have met their reasonable expectations. After that, the Mets are going to need a little luck to win the World Series.
Fortunately, the Mets are carrying a four leaf clover in the form of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia
No matter how you slice or dice it, the Mets have gone from an under .500 team to taking over New York in one year. How did they do it?
For starters, the Mets went to the World Series. They went on a magical run and came up just short. Additionally, they have assembled a roster that is more than capable of returning to the World Series this year, but also in years to come. Just as important as all of this, the Mets have a team that is good to the fans. Even after a loss in the World Series, they came out to share the moment with the fans. The fans love this team, and the feelings seem mutual.
One major reason why the fans love the team is the larger than life personalities on the team.
Matt Harvey travels across the talk show circuit like he’s got a movie about to be released even though “The Dark Knight Rises” was released in 2012. No, it’s not a coincidence that the movie was released the year he was first called up to the majors.
After the World Series, Noah Syndergaard took his own victory tour going to each New York stadium letting them know he owned the city. He actively accepts and plays off the Thor superhero moniker bestowed upon him. He knows what everyone thinks about when they think if him, and then he goes about playing along on Twitter:
Spring Training packing checklist:
-glove✔️
-spikes✔️
-mjolnir?✔️
-lunch box ?— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) February 4, 2016
RT @statcast Your eyes did not deceive you. @Mets starters just throw harder than the rest.https://t.co/tqILsn0vDg pic.twitter.com/cjnAm0Dl6e
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) February 4, 2016
By the way, before he came to the majors, he was thought of as the quiet one.
Overall though, no one moves the needle more than Yoenis Cespedes. He’s got swagger. Say what you will about him, but he is just cool. There are people and players that have that aura. Whatever you want to call it, Cespedes had it. Speaking of which, did you see that car?!?!?
This is Yoenis Cespedes's vehicle today. Unreal. pic.twitter.com/oUMz9HNEP5
— Robert Brender (@robertbrender) February 23, 2016
More shots of Cespedes's new three-wheel ride. Mets teammates even came out to see it. pic.twitter.com/29CkA5Srqf
— Andrew Beaton (@andrewlbeaton) February 23, 2016
Harvey has a Maserati, and people don’t even notice it. For what it’s worth, Harvey could’ve driven a Honda Civic today. No one noticed. Do you realize how big of a person or personality you need to be to make people not notice Matt Harvey?
That’s why the Mets own New York. They get it. They accept and return the fans’ love. They have a certain cool about them. They’re confident. They’re fun. They’re awesome on and off the field.
That’s why the Mets own New York.
(Photo from Mets Twitter account)
In 2014, the Royals were 90 feet away from scoring the tying run of the World Series. Even though most agreed Alex Gordon made the right decision stopping at third, his decision became a topic of discussion when Madison Bumgarner got Salvador Perez to foul out to end the World Series.
The game tying run was forever stranded at third.
Fast forward to the 2015 World Series.
With the exception of Game 2, the Mets had a late lead in each game. They got to that point despite the Mets starting pitching not having one truly great game. In fact, the Mets starting pitching had been somewhat disappointing. With that said, they pitched well enough to put the Mets in position to win four of the five games.
Then the pitching showed up in Game 5. Matt Harvey shut down the Royals much in the same way Bumgarner had shut down the Royals. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard were ready to go for Games 6 & 7. Before the ninth inning, the Royals had a dejected look in the dugout. Even if they were up 3-1 in the series, they were in real trouble. The Mets great starting pitching had awoken.
In the fateful ninth inning, Eric Hosmer was on third base. He was 90 feet away. Then this happened:
Hosmer had no business running there. None. He was the last out of the game. However, when 90 feet separated you from a World Series championship the previous year.
Yes, we heard it was about the scouting reports on Duda. The Royals scouts said the team should test Duda’s arm when they got the chance. However, that’s not what really happened. Hosmer described it somewhat differently:
We think about [losing the World Series] often. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think that’s kind of something we turn to mentally . . . . Everyone kind of relates to that and relates to how much that hurt.
***********
You’ve got to try to take a chance. With who was on the mound, Familia, hits are hard to come by, so, you know, you had to be aggressive. If it hadn’t worked out, I’d be answering some hard questions right now, but that’s the way we’ve been doing it all year. We’ve been taking chances, and found a way to get it done.
Hosmer admitted the end of the 2014 World Series impacted and drove the Royals throughout the 2015 season and World Series. The team was not going to let the tying run be stranded on third base. In 2015, the Royals strived to be more aggressive.
It’s now 2016, and now it’s the Mets turn to answer questions about why they lost the World Series. Naturally, one of the issues that arise is Lucas Duda’s throw:
Duda says the throw home in the World Series haunted him. Watched the play a few times on film. Still believes good throw gets him.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) February 18, 2016
In reality, Duda’s throw didn’t cost the Mets the World Series. Overall, it was their defense. You can pinpoint to problems in each and every game the Mets lost.
The Mets have to let this fuel them in 2016 much in the same way the Royals were fueled by the way they lost in the 2014 World Series. They need to use it to be better defensively, to pay better attention to detail in the field. If the Mets do this, they can do what the Royals did. They can return to the World Series.
And when they return chances are Lucas Duda makes that throw home helping thereby helping the Mets win the 2016 World Series.
There are legitimate reasons why you would say the Mets will not win the NL East. Fangraphs used its projection system to predict the Mets will finish behind the Nationals in the NL East.
Agree or disagree, at least we know Fangraphs has a rationalization for its conclusions. On the other hand, USA Today proudly flaunts they have no such projection formula. They just use the “human element” necessary in such projections to proclaim not only that the Nationals will win the NL East, but also that the Mets will miss the playoffs altogether.
Mets Aging Offense
One reason why USA Today sees the Mets falling behind the Nationals is an aging lineup with “six regulars on the wrong side of 30.” For what it’s worth, here’s a look at the Mets 2016 Opening Day starters:
- Travis d’Arnaud (27)
- Lucas Duda (30)
- Neil Walker (30)
- David Wright (33)
- Asdrubal Cabrera (30)
- Michael Conforto (22)
- Yoenis Cespedes (30)
- Curtis Granderson (35)
If we adhere to the axiom that a player’s prime is between 27-32, another way of saying what USA Today said was six of the eight Mets regulars are in their prime. Another way of saying what USA Today said is six of the eight Mets regulars are 30 and younger.
To put this in perspective, lets look at the Nationals 2016 projected lineup:
- Wilson Ramos (28)
- Ryan Zimmerman (31)
- Daniel Murphy (30)
- Anthony Rendon (25)
- Danny Espinosa (28)
- Jayson Werth (36)
- Ben Revere (27)
- Bryce Harper (23)
Three of the Nationals players are “on the wrong side of 30.” The average age of the eight Nationals regulars is 28.5. The Mets is 29.6. According to USA Today, that extra year is an indication that the Mets are in decline and the Nationals are on the rise.
Bartolo Colon: Fifth Starter
Personally, I am not the biggest Bartolo Colon fan. With that said, I can’t think of him making around 15 starts next year as a reason why the Mets will miss the playoffs.
Last year, Colon had an ERA+ of 89, and an FIP of 3.84. This makes him a below average starter. Keep in mind, he will only be in the rotation until July when Zack Wheeler has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery.
The Nationals counter-part? Tanner Roark Roark is thrust into the starting rotating from the bullpen as the Nationals lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, to free agency. Roark had an ERA+ of 92 and a 4.70 FIP. In theory, Roark is keeping the spot warm for uber-prospect, Lucas Giolito. However, it should be noted Giolito has not yet pitched above AA.
Considering which statistic you choose, you can argue Roark is either just as bad or worse than Colon. As such, Colon is not a reason to say the Mets will finish behind the Nationals.
Thor’s Innings
One factor USA Today cited in saying the Mets should finish behind the Nationals is the scary prospect of Noah Syndergaard having to throw 50% more innings.
This is plain wrong. Last year, Syndergaard threw 150.0 innings in 24 major league starts. In the minors, he threw 29.2 innings in five starts. Does USA Today reay believe Syndergaard will throw 359.1 innings next year? The last pitcher to throw over 300 innings was Steve Carlton, and that was 36 years ago. The last pitcher to throw over 350 innings was Wilbur Wood in 1973.
No, Syndergaard threw 179.2 innings in 29 starts. If he averages roughly the same 6.1 innings per starts next year, and he makes 32 starts next year, he will only throw 19 more innings or 10% more innings.
Instead of Syndergaard’s innings, USA Today should’ve focused on Nationals starter Joe Ross. Last year was Ross’ first year in the majors. He made 13 starts with three relief appearances throwing 76.2 innings. In the minors, Ross made 14 starts and threw 76.0 innings. Between the two stints, he made 27 starts while pitching 152.2 innings. Next year, he will see a much greater percentage work increase than Syndergaard will.
Overall, if the increased workload is an issue for Syndergaard, it’ll be a bigger issue for Ross.
Matz’s Durability
Another factor mentioned for the Mets apparent downfall is the fact that Steven Matz has never thrown more than 140 innings in a season.
Well that is true. You know what else is true? In his entire pro career, Matz has a 2.25 ERA, including a 2.27 ERA in six starts with the Mets last year. Keep in mind, this is the Mets fourth starter and a favorite in the Rookie of the Year race.
Overall, USA Today is throwing cold water on the Mets rotation while ignoring the Nationals rotation issues. There are the aforementioned problems with Roark and Ross. Additionally, the Nationals saw Gio Gonzalez being to regress with a 1.423 WHIP last year. That’s an ugly number for a guy who has a reputation for struggling with command. Furthermore, he just hit that dreaded age 30 season.
Also, while Max Scherzer had an outstanding year last year, it should be noted it wasn’t perfect. Scherzer went 10-7 with a 2.11 ERA in the first half of the year. In the second half, he went 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA. Also, at age 31, he’s “on the wrong side of 30.”
Dusty Baker is a Magician
Last year, Matt Williams was worse than Jimmy Dugan was before he got into that fight with Dottie Henson as to whether or not Marla Hooch should bunt. Note, Jimmy Dugan was right. It very rarely makes sense to have a position player lay down a sac bunt.
Baker had earned the right to be a well regarded manager. However, he’s not a miracle worker.
He doesn’t make Anthony Rendon healthy for a full year as USA Today suggests. He also doesn’t make Steven Strasburg completely fulfill his potential making him a Cy Young winner. He doesn’t make Zimmerman or Werth healthy and productive. Yes, he can get the most from this admittedly talented Nationals team, but no, his presence alone doesn’t help this team overcome all of its issues. The only thing I would hazard a guess at is he would probably prevent Jonathan Papelbon from choking anyone in the dugout.
Picking Nits
Overall, USA Today has teams having a combine record of 2347-2430. Since baseball has no ties, any projection system should have teams as a whole with a .500 record. It’s an error. We all make them. With that said, with the decidedly one-sided analysis of the NL East, I believe it shows the attention to detail provided.
Conclusion
I’m not the typical Mets fan. The Nationals do scare me. You can concoct many a scenario in which the Nationals win the division. I just don’t think the one-sided analysis USA Today did was one of them.