Lucas Duda

No Need to Panic

Remember when #PanicCity was a thing?  I do too. It was justified then. When Sandy Alderson bestowed the moniker on Mets fans, here was the previous night’s starting lineup:

  1. Curtis Granderson
  2. Ruben Tejada
  3. Lucas Duda
  4. Michael Cuddyer
  5. Wilmer Flores
  6. Darrell Ceciliani
  7. Kevin Plawecki
  8. Jacob deGrom
  9. Dilson Herrera

Look at that lineup. The number two and five hitters rotate in the eighth spot, at least until Tejada went down. The number three hitter bats fifth. The cleanup hitter is on the bench. The seventh hitter is a backup. The sixth and ninth hitters are not on the playoff roster. 

This is a different team than that one. This team was one out away from winning Game One. They had a bad game against an erratic pitcher, who has pitched well against the Mets in the past. Why must it be more than that?  

We just watched our young pitchers now down an incredible Cubs offense. We know good pitching beats good hitting. It’s the reason the Mets are in the World Series. This isn’t the same old Mets offense. They can actually hit now. 

The Mets are getting a needed day off to collect themselves. They’re going to set things straight. They’re going out tomorrow, and they’re going to play their best game of the year. Then they’ll go out in Game 4 and do the same thing, and so on and so on. 

Ya Gotta Believe!

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Cueto Completed Dominant Royals Effort

Honestly, I thought the one run was going to hold up. Lucas Duda had an RBI single in the fourth. Johnny Cueto was starting to get wild. Jacob deGrom was dealing. Then the fifth inning happened. 

When the game started, I lived deGrom’s approach. He established the fastball and used his breaking pitches well. The Royals were making contact, but it wasn’t solid contact. I’m not sure what happened next, but there are some theories:

Whatever it was, it was a slow death for deGrom. The Royals batted around. They had four runs on one leadoff walk and five hits. To put it in perspective, deGrom let up five hits in Game 1 of the NLDS, six hits in Game 5 of the NLDS, and four hits in Game 3 of the NLCS. He practically let up as many hits in that inning as any game this postseason. It certainly leads credence to Adam Rubin’s information when you consider:

Regardless, deGrom didn’t have it in the fifth. Maybe it was Game 5 of the NLDS. Maybe Collins just wanted to outdo yesterday’s ineptitude. In any event, he let the game slip away with Jon Niese ready I the pen. 

Don’t worry, Niese warmed up again after an effective Hansel Robles appearance in the sixth. Collins would go an inning too long with Niese because why not?  The game was within reach at 4-1 going into the bottom of the eighth. It would be out of reach at 7-1 after that. On top of that the Mets probably lost Niese for at least Game 3. I really don’t know what Collins was thinking. 

To make matters worse, the Royals outpitched the Mets in this game. deGrom went five. Cueto pitched a two hit complete game. 

Tonight, the only good news was Duda. He was 2-3 with an RBI. He got the only two hits on the night. I guess the other good news is that the Mets are getting out of town. 

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Duda Busting Out?

There may not be more of a streaky hotter than Lucas Duda. His regular season stats were .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers and 73 RBI, but that’s only part of the story. 

He started the season guns blazing. In April and May he hit .298 with 9 homers. In June, he was ice cold hitting .187 with one homer. July was not better with him hitting .178. However, in a four game stretch at the end of the month he hit six homers. It catapulted him to a good August that saw him hit .304, albeit with only three homers. 

He then had the back injury that the Mets mismanaged. He hit six homers in September, but he only hit .227. The postseason was a nightmare. He was 2-18 in the NLDS. He looked so lost he sat in Game 1 of the NLCS. However, he came back with a vengeance:

In the NLCS, he was 4-10. In the clinching Game 4, he had the aforementioned homerun. He was 3-4 with a homer and 5 RBI. Last night, he came out hitting in the World Series. He was 2-6 with two hard hit balls through the shift. He’s now 5 for his last 10. 

For a hitter as streaky as Duda, this is a great sign in short series. It looks like Duda is breaking out at exactly the right time. 

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Two Things Sticking in My Craw

In the 14th inning, there were two pivotal plays. The first was the David Wright error allowing Alcides Escobar to score. Here’s an image of the play:

 

The next was Escobar scoring the winning run on a sacrifice fly that inning. Here’s why it bothers me. Neither play was reviewed. We didn’t see Terry Collins ask for a review. 

What I don’t know is if the reason was because the team’s agreed to go without replay after the blackout in the telecast:

 https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/659179564585889792
However, we do know that eventually replay again became available during the game:

If it was, then the Mets missed an opportunity. We’ve already seen strange things happen with replay this postseason. Are we 100% sure Lucas Duda wasn’t on the bag. It’s possible he was. We may never know because there was no replay. 

If Collins thought there was replay that call needed to be replayed. It’s the 14th inning. You need to use your challenge at some point. If Collins thought there was no replay, why isn’t he out there arguing. Maybe he forces an umpire huddle and an overturn of the call. It’s not likely, but we’ve seen it happen. 

If there was replay, how do you not challenge the last play of the game?  I’m 99.999% sure Escobar didn’t leave early, but if he did it’s no two outs and the Mets can get out of the inning. The replays may not have changed anything, but don’t you have to at least try?

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Granderson Starting it All

First pitch is slated for 8:07, which means the game will probably start around 9:00. It doesn’t matter the time because Mets fans have been waiting for that pitch seemingly all their lives. Stepping up to the plate will be Curtis Granderson. 

It’s fitting that it’ll be Granderson. Granderson was the first offensive player to sign on. Yes, the Mets had David Wright, but he had not signed his extension yet. We didn’t know if Daniel Murphy would be traded or not. Lucas Duda had not yet wrestled first base away from Ike Davis. Seriously, all we knew at that time was Granderson was going to be the RF for four years. 

Granderson was the first offensive player to really sign on for all of this. Except for Wright and Murphy, the team has changed all around him. He has been the Mets regular season MVP. He has been terrific this postseason. This year he’s been everything you could’ve asked him to be. 

He’s going to step in the box and kick off the World Series for the Mets. It’s fitting since he was the first position player to sign on for this. 

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Mets Against Edison Volquez

The Royals named Edison Volquez as their Game One starter. The Volquez-Johnny Cueto decision wasn’t like what the Mets faced before in the playoffs. However, it merited consideration, and the Royals went with Volquez. 

This year Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.308 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9. That’s where the good ends for Volquez. In his career, he is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s been slightly better this postseason going 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.1 K/9. In the end, what matters most is how he’s pitched against the Mets:

Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB and 2 K
Combined 18-99 (.182 BA), 12 BB (.270 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.253 slugging), 11 RBI, and 22 K

Here’s how the bench has fared against Volquez:

Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double
Kelly Johnson 4-14 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-0
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench 6-23 (.263) with 3 BB (.346 OBP), 2 double (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, 1 K

In essence, Volquez had pitched well against the Mets. However, the Mets players have gotten to him. When the Mets have made contact, they’ve hit homeruns. It’ll be tough to hit homers in a stadium like Kauffman. 

Fortunately, the Mets have better pitching than the Royals. If the Mets pitch how they should, they will need just one of those blasts to win the game, similar to the NLDS. 

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Cueto is Hittable

Sometimes, there’s no rhyme or reason for things. I think this sums up Johnny Cueto‘s 2015 season. He went from a hitters’ ballpark with poor defense to a pitchers ballpark with terrific defense and got worse. It doesn’t make sense especially when you consider he left the best division in baseball for one of the worst. 

With the Reds, Cueto averaged 6.2 innings per start going 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.934 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. With the Royals, he averaged 6.0 innings per start with a 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.461 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9. Sure, he was incredible in the clinching game of the NLDS, but his two other starts were terrible. In Game Three of the ALCS, he took the loss allowing six hits, eight earned, four walks, and two strikeouts over two innings. 

Historically, Cueto hasn’t faired well against the Mets either. In his career, he is 3-4 against the Mets with a 4.02 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At Citi Field, he is slightly better with a 2-2 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. The Mets will face him at Kauffman Stadium in Game One. There he is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. He’s prime to get hit by the Mets. The only issues is how do these Mets hit him?

Here’s the numbers against the presumed Game One starting lineup:

Curtis Granderson 3-12 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
David Wright 6-25 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K
Daniel Murphy 3-17 with 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Yoenis Cespedes 0-2 with 1 K
Lucas Duda 3-15 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K
Travis d’Arnaud 0-0
Michael Conforto 0-0
Wilmer Flores 1-6 with 1 double 
Juan Lagares 2-12 with 1 BB, and 2 K
Combined 17-89 (.191 BA) with 12 BB (.287 OBP), 1 double, 4 HR (.337 slugging), 11 RBI, and 21 K

Here’s how the projected bench has hit against him:

Kelly Johnson 1-6 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K
Michael Cuddyer 1-6 with 1 double 

Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1-3 with 2 K
Kevin Plawecki 0-3 with 1 K
Matt Reynolds 0-0
Bench Combined 3-15 (.200 BA) with 2 BB (.294 OBP), 1 double, 1 HR (.467 slugging), 2 RBI, and 4 K

In case the Mets make a roster change, here’s Uribe’s numbers:

Juan Uribe 2-6 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K

Overall, the Mets have not hit Cueto well. However, prior to Cueto being a Royal no one did. Just last year, Cueto limited batters to a triple slash line of .195/.261/.313. So, where’s the discrepancy in all this?  Where’s the hope for Mets fans tomorrow?  It’s that Cueto’s numbers are actually no fluke at all. In his career, as the year progresses, he tired and gets hit harder:

March/April .208/.269/.349

May .222/.282/.364

June .235/.298/.367

July .252/.324/.365

August .243/.305/.412

September/October .275/.335/.426

Given these numbers, it’s clear that Cueto can be hit . . . hard. This gives the Mets a Game One advantage. When the goal is to split in Kansas City, the Mets need to utilize this advantage. I think they can and will. 

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How’d You Celebrate?

When the Mets went to the 2000 World Series, I was jumping up and down alone in my dorm room. Not many Mets fans in Western New York. 

When the Mets won the 2006 NLDS, I was at a bar down the road from my apartment. My brother and I ran down there after the end of the seventh inning. I remember the bar erupting, and people spraying beer all over like it was the locker room. It was awesome. 

Last night, I woke my 22 month old so up to see the final out. I had a much ore romantic idea of what was going to happen. We were going to cheer and high five. We would then call my Dad and brother. Instead, he watched the last out and got really, really cranky. While I was over the moon, I was trying to get a cranky kid back to bed. 

Once I accomplished that, I went downstairs, and I talked to my Dad and brother in hushed tones. They’re excited and talking loud. I’m talking in a loud whisper. I then went back to bed and watched all of the postgame coverage.

Side note: as I noted in an earlier post, my son has been on the money in his predictions. I’ve been keeping him up later with the playoffs. When Lucas Duda came up, he said, “Duda homerun!”  We know what happened next:

Right after the homerun, my Dad texted me “J4 called that for Duda?”  When I replied he did, his next text was, “Tell him to keep it up and speak for Wright.”  I’m trying folks. 

This morning, my son didn’t want to get out of bed. He was tired. I wonder why?  When he woke up, he said to me, “Mets HOMERUN!”  It certainly was. It was the celebration I was looking forward to last night. It’s okay that I had to wait for it. 

Now, I just need to follow my Dad’s request and get him to predict a homerun for Wright. 

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THE METS HAVE WON THE PENNANT!

The Mets came out tonight and made sure they were going to quash any notion they were going to blow a 3-0 series lead. The opening salvo came off the bat of Lucas Duda:

Travis d’Arnaud finished the inning off by going back-to-back, apple-to-apple:

The Mets batted around in the first and had a 4-0 lead. This series, nay postseason, has belonged to NLCS MVP Daniel Murphy, but tonight belonged to Duda. Duda came alive in this game. In addition to the three run homer, he would hit a two run RBI double in the second. It would be a record tying hit:

It was all the Mets pitchers need. Steven Matz no-hit the Cubs through three. However, he allowed a run in the fourth, and he got in trouble in the fifth prompting Terry Collins to replace him with two outs in the inning. Bartolo Colon came in and struck out Kris Bryant with runners on first and second. 

Colon would pitch a clean sixth before being lifted for Addison Reed. Because Matz couldn’t get out of the fifth, Colon earned the win. It’s strange that the 42 year old Colin would get the pennant clinching win on a team with all of this dominant young pitching. The answer to the trivia question is Jeurys Familia struck out Dexter Fowler. 

  
As for Murphy?  He had an off night only going 3-4 with a double and a run scored in the first seven innings. In the eighth with his streak on the line he did this:

Overall, the Cubs had some fight in them, but it wasn’t enough. They lost 8-3 tonight. The only damage inflicted was Yoenis Cespedes leaving the game early with a sore shoulder. Hopefully, it’s not series because he’ll be needed in the WORLD SERIES!

The Mets swept the Cubs.  The Cuba never had a lead in the series. It is the first time the Mets have ever swept a best of seven series. I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Mets are going to the World Series!  There’s no way to describe this amazing feeling. There may be only one way to describe this:

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Back to the Mets Future 

Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:

  
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:

April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Juan Lagares CF 
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Daniel Murphy 2B
  6. Eric Campbell 3B
  7. Kevin Plawecki C
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Jon Niese P

May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0

  1. Juan Lagares CF
  2. Wilmer Flores SS
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Daniel Murphy 2B
  6. John Mayberry, Jr. RF
  7. Eric Campbell 3B
  8. Kevin Plawecki C
  9. Jacob deGrom P

June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Juan Lagares CF
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Michael Cuddyer LF
  5. Wilmer Flores SS
  6. Kevin Plawecki C
  7. Dilson Herrera 2B
  8. Eric Campbell 3B
  9. Matt Harvey P

July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Ruben Tejada SS
  3. Lucas Duda 1B
  4. Daniel Murphy 3B
  5. Wilmer Flores 2B
  6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
  7. Kevin Plawecki C
  8. Jacob deGrom P
  9. Juan Lagares CF

August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Daniel Murphy 3B
  3. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  4. Lucas Duda 1B
  5. Wilmer Flores SS
  6. Kelly Johnson 2B
  7. Travis d’Arnaud C
  8. Michael Conforto LF
  9. Bartolo Colon P

September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. Daniel Murphy 3B
  3. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  4. Lucas Duda 1B
  5. Travis d’Arnaud C
  6. Kelly Johnson 2B
  7. Michael Conforto LF
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Jon Niese P

October 21, 2015 (estimated)

  1. Curtis Granderson RF
  2. David Wright 3B
  3. Daniel Murphy 2B
  4. Yoenis Cespedes CF
  5. Lucas Duda 1B
  6. Travis d’Arnaud
  7. Michael Conforto LF
  8. Wilmer Flores SS
  9. Steven Matz P

Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight. 

I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series. 

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