Tylor Megill
Before the New York Mets take the field and try to win a fourth consecutive series to begin the 2022 season, they have emerged as one of the best teams in baseball. In fact, they might even be the best. However, there are going to be ebbs and flows.
We have already seen Tylor Megill and Chris Bassitt go from completely and utterly dominant to struggling against a good San Francisco Giants team. Conversely, we have seen Max Scherzer get better each and every time he has taken the mound.
We have seen the palpable excitement from sweeping the doubleheader against the Giants turn to angst when they lost a frustrating game the following day. What made it even worse was seeing Wilmer Flores absolutely robbing Dominic Smith of an extra base hit which might’ve proven to be a game tying or winning rally.
When things like that and losses like that happen, there tends to be an over-focus on the negative. The fans still don’t quite trust the bullpen even if things look better with Edwin Diaz back from bereavement leave. They become overwrought over how neither James McCann or Tomas Nido are hitting. Even with all that, there are some positives to glean.
Drew Smith has emerged as a true eighth inning guy and possibly future closer. Trevor May has shaken off the rust. Chasen Shreve has been terrific. Right there, you have what you need to win any close game, and that’s before you account for Seth Lugo getting stronger as the season progresses.
With respect to McCann and Nido, no, they aren’t hitting. However, they are framing extremely well. As a result, they are doing exactly what they need to be doing. They are helping this pitching staff immensely, and their respective work behind the plate is a big reason why Mets pitching has been so good to start the season.
Overall, things are very positive right now. This Mets team never seems truly out of it. They battle and fight back. They have pitching and timely hitting. These are the things which tend to last, and as a result, it is a good harbinger for the rest of the season and hopefully the postseason.
We know Zack Wheeler is an ace, and we’re getting the sense Tylor Megill can get there. Tonight, they were on the same level, and truth be told, Megill was better.
Wheeler started out shaky plunking two and walking one to load the bases. However, he’d get out of it by striking out Robinson Cano.
Now, Wheeler got out of that inning unscathed, but it was a heavy toll. He settled in blowing through the Mets until he faced Brandon Nimmo to lead-off the fifth:
👋 GONE! @You_Found_Nimmo pic.twitter.com/856yHGqhon
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2022
Wheeler was done after that, and we would walk off the mound on the losing side of the ledger. That’s because Megill out-pitched him.
Aside from a first inning double from J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies never really got to him. Megill pitched 5.1 brilliant scoreless innings striking out five and walking none.
He was lifted for Chasen Shreve, who did his job getting out of the inning unscathed. After getting Bryce Harper to lead-off the seventh, Drew Smith was greeted by Nick Castellanos with a double.
Smith worked around this double, and he’d pitch 1.2 scoreless as a perfect bridge to Edwin Diaz. Buck Showalter‘s pushing Smith needs to be questioned, especially with Smith’s injury history, but for tonight, it worked.
Diaz would have a two run lead in the ninth because the Mets got an insurance run in the eighth. After doing absolutely nothing against the Phillies bullpen, Nimmo drew a lead-off walk.
Nimmo was erased off the basepaths after a Starling Marte fielder’s choice. Marte got that base back after recording his first steal with the Mets. Francisco Lindor expanded the Mets lead to 2-0 after his RBI single.
Let's go! @Lindor12BC pic.twitter.com/nkb26hdt9h
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2022
Diaz did the job in the ninth to record his first save of the season. It got a little dicey after the Realmuto one out single, but Diaz struck out Harper.
Lindor made a phenomenal grab of a Castellanos hard hit ball, but Realmuto beat the throw. Rhys Hoskins was overmatched and struck out to end the game.
It was a big moment for a Mets team who blew leads in the eighth inning in consecutive games. The Mets now have a rubber game tomorrow looking to win consecutive road series before their home opener.
Game Notes: Phillies again went with the 6:40 start time. Cano was 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Mets had three hits to the Phillies five.
The New York Mets will be led by Buck Showalter as the team sets to try to win their first World Series since 1986. Since this is their 60th season, here are 60 bold predictions for the season.
1. The New York Mets will win the 2022 World Series.
2. Howie Rose will retire after the season. The Mets have already tabbed their replacement in Jake Eisenberg, and Rose could not pass up the opportunity to go out calling a Mets World Series victory.
3. Rose will return in some limited fashion to SNY and will be a fill-in replacement in 2023 and beyond.
4. Francisco Lindor will be the NL MVP. Like Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran, he’s going to have a huge second year. Unlike them, he wont’ be denied the award.
5. Dominic Smith will force his way into the lineup. Yes, he’s battling with J.D. Davis and Robinson Cano for the DH spot, but like he did in 2019 and 2020, he’s going to force his way into the everyday lineup and not relinquish his spot.
6. Edwin Diaz will be an All-Star. Diaz has been an every other year pitcher in his career, and following that pattern, this is his year.
7. The Mets All-Stars this season will be Diaz, Lindor, and Max Scherzer.
8. Jacob deGrom will receive some Cy Young votes. Whenever he comes back, he’s going to be deGrom, and he’s going to be so great, he’s going to appear on ballots.
9. Jeff McNeil will finish the season as the left fielder. That is an injury prone outfield, and McNeil will eventually be forced to move out there.
10. Robinson Cano will reclaim a starting job. We forget that when Cano played he was actually good in the field. If the outfield is as injury prone as we think, we will eventually play almost every day at second or DH.
11. Chris Bassitt will have a slow first month frustrating fans, but he will have a terrific stretch starting in the middle of May as he adjusts to working with the new catchers and Jeremy Hefner.
12. Starling Marte is going to have a fast start and quickly become a fan favorite. When he’s snubbed at All-Star time, fans are going to be livid.
13. Mark Vientos will have a thrilling MLB debut. Vientos’ bat is arguably Major League ready, and he’s going to get some run during some point of the season as a third baseman or DH. He may not relinquish a spot.
14. Brett Baty will be moved at the trade deadline. With the emergence of Vientos and the ground ball problems, the Mets feel comfortable moving him for that big piece at the trade deadline.
15. The Mets everyday catcher is not on the Opening Day roster. At some point, the Mets will swing a deal or call up Francisco Alvarez to take over as the everyday catcher.
16. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the Mets main contenders. Last year, the Atlanta Braves were dead in the water until the Mets were too injured. The Mets won’t do that again this year, and the Phillies pitching and hitters will give people more of a run than we think.
17. The Atlanta Braves will not challenge the Mets at all for the division. They’ll really miss Freddie Freeman, the bullpen will falter, and they will not get Ronald Acuna Jr. back in time.
18. Tylor Megill will last the entire season in the rotation. Now that he’s here, it is going to be difficult to remove him from the rotation. If need be, the Mets will go to a six man rotation to keep him in the majors.
19. Carlos Carrasco will rebound and will pitch like he did with Cleveland, but he will not make more than 20 starts.
20. Trevor Williams will become a huge part of the Mets bullpen as he becomes more of a fastball/slider pitcher.
21. Steve Cohen will purchase SNY during the course as the 2022 season as the Wilpons are scared off by the increasing rights deals with streamers.
22. The Mets will have multiple Gold Glove winners with Lindor and Marte.
23. Hefner will get interviews for managerial positions with other teams after this season.
24. So will Eric Chavez.
25. The Mets will not have any player at DH for more than 40 games this season.
26. J.D. Davis will make multiple relief appearances for the Mets this season.
27. The Joely Rodriguez trade will work out as well as the Alex Torres trade did for the Mets.
28. None of the Mets outfielders will play over 135 games this season.
29. Fans will fall in love with Nick Plummer and get more frustrated by Khalil Lee.
30. Mark Canha will play more games than any other Mets outfielder, but he will have the lowest WAR out of all the regular outfielders.
31. There will be an issue over Marcus Stroman not receiving a video tribute when the Chicago Cubs visit the Mets in September.
32. Old Timers’ Day will have one team wearing the 1986 Mets jerseys and the other team wearing the black jerseys.
33. Carlos Beltran will not return to Citi Field for Old Timers’ Day. We also will not see Carlos Delgado.
34. The loudest ovation on Old Timers’ Day will go to Piazza. The second loudest will go to Nolan Ryan, who will be a surprise attendee.
35. The defensive highlight of the season will come from Luis Guillorme.
36. Pete Alonso will take a step back defensively, and he will see more time at DH than initially expected.
37. A week or two into the season, we will hear some rumblings about Michael Conforto looking to return to the Mets. He won’t return, and likely, he will not sign with anyone until after the Major League draft.
38. Some team will crack the frequency on the pitch calling device, and we will eventually know it is them because they will be the surprise team of the 2022 season. It won’t be the Mets.
39. Mets fans will actually enjoy the Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts this season.
40. Showalter will be the 2022 NL Manager of the Year, and it might be unanimous.
41. Seth Lugo will return to his dominant form, but he will only be a one inning reliever. The multiple inning role will be assumed by Williams.
42. The Tom Seaver statue will be perfect.
43. Drew Smith will take over the eighth inning and will be groomed as the next closer. He will not take over the eighth due to any fault of Trevor May who will have another good year.
44. People will talk about how Scherzer isn’t what they thought he’d be and the contract was a mistake. Those people will be idiots.
45. The Mets are going to have a monster second half with them running away with the division.
46. With the Toronto Blue Jays winning the division, the Mets are going to make a push to get their unvaccinated players vaccinated to ensure their availability for the World Series.
47. Jeurys Familia will receive a tribute video when he returns to Citi Field, and there will be a mix of cheers and boos with probably more boos.
48. The Wild Card round will be a complete dud and fans will be clamoring for the return of the winner-take-all Wild Card Game.
49. We will see David Peterson bounced around between starting and relieving due to the injury issues with the Mets starting staff. He will struggle for it.
50. The Mets will not need to add bullpen pieces at the deadline because we will see pitchers like Colin Holderman and Thomas Szapucki emerge as quality relief options at the Major League level.
51. James McCann will have very similar production to what he had in 2021, and in short order, he will find himself in a catching rotation with Tomas Nido.
52. No New York baseball player will sign an in-season extension. That includes deGrom and Nimmo, and it also includes Aaron Judge.
53. There will be no negative articles written about Showalter this season even during a time in the season where the Mets slump (as even the best teams in baseball always do).
54. Taijuan Walker will make the fewest starts of anyone in the Mets pitching rotation.
55. The Mets will have a no-hitter this season, but it will not be from a starting pitcher going all nine innings.
56. This will be the last Major League season with nine inning double headers. We will see the return of seven inning double headers in 2023.
57. The Mets will announce their next Hall of Fame class, and it will include Al Leiter and Johan Santana.
58. Mets fans will not care about the Apple TV game, but they will be absolutely livid about the game on Peacock. Of course, MLB will not care one iota about the blowback.
59. Showalter is going to get Guillorme in a lot of games for late inning defense.
60. To reiterate, the Mets will win the World Series, and they will not have to wait another three decades for their next World Series.
Well, it didnt’ take long for the New York Mets depth to be tested. Jacob deGrom is out for about half of the season with a stress reaction in his right scapula. Max Scherzer has a hamstring issue. Taijuan Walker has issues with his surgically repaired knee. Brandon Nimmo needs cortisone shots in the neck he injured last season.
Buck Showalter is talking about the Opening Day starter being one of Tylor Megill, David Peterson, or Trevor Williams. Travis Jankowski, Peterson, and Nick Plummer have been put on the taxi squad awaiting the call-up. Without even playing a game, this is far from the situation the Mets thought they would be.
However, this does underscore the job the Mets did this offseason to address their overall depth.
In years past, at least one of Megill or Peterson (;ikely both) would have been guaranteed a rotation spot, and Williams would have been non-tendered. Instead, all three are there to provide innings if needed. More than that, the team still has Jose Butto in the minors. There is depth here allowing the Mets to throw credible Major League starters even in the absence of at least three starting pitchers.
In terms of the outfield, the depth is there to sustain a Nimmo injury. The question is whether the Mets do what needs to be done on that front.
In all honesty, the Mets fourth best outfielder is Jeff McNeil. If Nimmo’s injury is serious enough to necessitate an IL stint, McNeil should shift out to left field allowing the team to see just how much Robinson Cano has in the tank. In some ways, this would be the best test for the team to see what Cano can actually provide to this team.
However, in all likelihood, they will play Dominic Smith in left. On one hand, this underscores just how much the Mets needed Smith and why they were smart not to trade him. On the other hand, Smith isn’t a good left fielder underscoring why the Mets should go out and re-sign Michael Conforto.
Whatever the case, the Mets have versatile players, and they have credible Major League players to plug into the lineup even without 3/5 of their rotation and their starting center fielder. This underscores the good work the team did in the offseason. However, the proof is in the pudding, and we won’t find out just how good of a job the Mets did until we see how it translates on the field.
No one remotely expected the New York Mets to be scrambling for an Opening Day starter, and yet, here we are. The season opens Thursday, and we still don’t know who will pitch.
Jacob deGrom suffered a stress reaction in his scapula. Max Scherzer has a hamstring issue. Now, we’re hearing Buck Showalter is debating a bullpen day.
If the Mets go with the injury replacement, the nod could go to Tylor Megill. With all due respect to Megill who surprised last season, he shouldn’t be getting the nod. He’s hasn’t earned it, not yet.
Looking at the Mets roster, you could argue the one who has earned the spot, the moment, is Taijuan Walker.
Walker came to the Mets last season partially because no one wanted him. That’s not hyperbole. The Mets were literally the only team who offered him a contract, and it was at the beginning of Spring Training.
It was another low moment in his career. Walker went from a top 100 prospect to dealing with a number of injuries stunting his promising career. Case-in-point, he pitched 18.0 innings total between the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
He appeared to put that all behind him in the 2020 pandemic season. Despite that, the Mets were the only ones who wanted Walker, and he rewarded the team for their trust in him.
Walker immediately embraced being a Met. He opted for the number 99 rather than repeat the mistake Tony Clark made in taking away Mr. Met’s 00. He’d graciously accept a keep the shark tooth necklace from Turk Wendell, the only other Met to wear 99:
Taijuan Walker says he hasn't worn the necklace Turk Wendell gifted him yet due to his superstitions
"I have the licorice and the necklace in my locker. It's gonna go with me everywhere I go" pic.twitter.com/e00ef1lsd1
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 7, 2021
More than that, Walker performed. He would be the Mets only All-Star in 2021 (injury replacement for deGrom). He was more than deserving as he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half.
With his velocity and movement back, he posted the 12th highest first half WAR. He was 10th best by FIP. All-in-all, he was who we once thought he would be.
Then, he’d hit a wall. That’s to be expected from a pitcher who threw 67.1 innings over a three year span. Notably for Walker, he didn’t taper off until he hit the 95 inning mark.
Still, for a Mets team who had starters falling left and right, Walker made 30 starts (technically 29). He gave this team his all, and he’d be an All-Star.
Walker has already overcome so much in his career. He came to New York and became an All-Star. Now, with the injuries to deGrom and Scherzer, he’s the one who should get the Opening Day start.
The New York Mets were the first Major League team to swoop in and take advantage of the Oakland Athletics tear down by obtaining Chris Bassitt for J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller. It was a very strong move for the Mets with Bassitt being a terrific fit for the Mets rotation.
What is interesting with Bassitt is just how overlooked he is. Since 2018, he has a 3.23 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and a 129 ERA+. His ERA is 17th best in the majors over that time frame. His 4.37 FIP ranks 43rd. His 3.22 K/BB ranks 56th. His 32.78% hard hit rate is good for 30th in the majors.
Going to Baseball Savant, Bassitt is among the best in the majors in limiting hard contact despite not having elite velocity or spin. As noted by Owen McGrattan of Fangraphs, Bassitt does this by how he mixes up his pitches as well as his release points. The overall result is his taking average stuff and having it play as a top of the rotation type of pitcher.
While that may sound a bit incredulous by the aforementioned numbers, keep in mind there are 30 teams in the majors. If you are in the top 60 in any category, you’re pitching at the level of a 1-2 starter. That’s where Bassitt has been. He’s pitching like a number two starter in terms of results. We can dicker about his stuff and natural ability, but the end result is Bassitt pitches like a two starter.
Of course, with the Mets, he’s nowhere near that. He’s a very large step behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer because the vast majority of starting pitchers are. There’s not shame in that whatsoever. When healthy, you can argue Carlos Carrasco is one of the best pitchers in baseball. After all, Carrasco was coming off a 153 ERA+ before he was traded to the Mets.
That’s just the thing., Carrasco had an injury riddled season. In each of the last two seasons, deGrom has been nicked up. Taijuan Walker has a lengthy injury history. Scherzer has had good health in his career, but he is also 37. Looking at the Mets rotation, it is both deep and questionable in terms of the ability to get 30 starts from everyone.
It is one thing to have Tylor Megill and David Peterson ready to step into the rotation. That is admirable depth, and it’s all the more admirable with Trevor Williams and Jordan Yamamoto in the mix. However, those are back end of the rotation type of guys. They are not pitchers who can reasonably replicate a top of the rotation starter.
That’s what makes Bassitt so important. By performance, he’s a two starter. However, in this rotation, he’s a number three, and you could argue he’s the fourth starter. When and if an injury occurs, the need to replace a top of the rotation isn’t that much of a concern because the middle to back end of the rotation pitchers on this team are really top to middle pitchers.
The Bassitt acquisition makes this rotation even deeper than it was, and arguably, it makes the Mets rotation the deepest in baseball. When all five of these starters are pitching on the top of their game, something that Jeremy Hefner has helped them do, there is no rotation better in baseball. That’s just how much Bassitt means to this team.
With the collective bargaining agreement stalemate, and Commissioner Rob Manfred announcing the first two series of the Major League season will be canceled, minor league baseball appears to be set to be the only baseball left to be played. This was the case on August 12, 1994 until the end of that season, and right now, we don’t know how long it will be until MLB and the MLBPA reach an agreement.
This begs the question about how this will affect the minor league season. In many ways, the answer is not at all, but in a more global sense, it is a huge impact due to all of the uncertainty.
40 Man Roster Issues
First and foremost, this lockout impacts players on the 40 man roster. Keep in mind with Major League rosters being capped at 26 players, the 14 players who were supposed to play in the minors are now not permitted to play with their respective organizations.
This past offseason, the New York Mets added Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Adam Oller, and Jose Butto to their 40 man roster. They’re now not eligible to play in games or participate in Spring Training. The same goes for players like Travis Blankenhorn, Khalil Lee, Patrick Mazeika, and Nick Plummer who were likely ticketed for Triple-A to start the season.
Spring Training Battles
If we look back to the pandemic shortened season of 2020, MLB had a very abbreviated “Summer Camp” with players reporting on July 1 and beginning the season on July 24. In 1995, the strike and lockout meant Spring Training was delayed. When the two sides finally agreed to a deal, Spring Training was just three weeks. We’re very likely to see something akin to that again.
As a result, we are not going to have the opportunity to see Spring Training battles breath. At least at the moment, Tylor Megill and David Peterson appear poised to battle for the fifth starter spot. With no real Spring Training, and both pitchers being shut down because they are on the 40 man roster, it would appear the Mets would be all the more emboldened to sign another starter.
Speaking of Spring Training battles, there are those veterans who signed minor league deals. For example, this offseason the Mets signed Daniel Palka who has played 154 Major League games in his career and Matt Reynolds who has played 130 games. They would be permitted to play in Spring Training, where they would not be paid, and they can then report to play in Triple-A Syracuse regardless of the status of the CBA negotiations.
Rule 5 Draft
As noted, players not on the 40 man roster are permitted to participate in Spring Training, and they can begin their minor league seasons when they are slated to begin. That is an enormous benefit for players like Carlos Cortes, Brian Metoyer, and Hayden Senger. Each of these players were on the bubble for Rule 5 protection, and the Mets opted to expose them to the draft.
This means Cortes, Metoyer, and Senger will get to play and improve. That will also give teams an opportunity to get a better look at those three players in determining whether they should be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that also works in the inverse with the Mets getting a deeper look into players they might be targeting.
Keep in mind, there isn’t much precedent here for this. In 1994, because there was a strike but not a lockout, teams were able to proceed with their business as usual and hold the Rule 5 draft in December (even if it was delayed twice). For the 2020 season, the Rule 5 draft had already taken place in December 2019 because COVID-19 was not yet a concern.
Another important note here is as MLB cancels games, it becomes easier to carry Rule 5 drafted players. As a result, the risk in selecting a Rule 5 player has been greatly mitigated. Another factor at play here is we may see players get drafted based on early season results who may not have been otherwise considered. To sum up, this is a quagmire.
Games
At the moment, the Mets have their minor league mini-camp. Minor League Spring Training is also set to officially begin this week. As of right now, according to their official schedule, the Mets are slated to play their first Spring Training game on March 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Of course, games were supposed to begin February 28, but it was delayed due to the lockout. As of right now, there is no official word if games will be delayed further. That said, there will likely be some form of a Spring Training game schedule even absent a CBA being in place to allow the minor leaguers to prepare for their season. The season for the Mets full season affiliates are set to begin as follows:
- Syracuse Mets – April 5
- Binghamton Rumble Ponies – April 8
- Brooklyn Cyclones – April 8
- St. Lucie Mets – April 8
For those Mets fans who want to attend a baseball game, the Brooklyn Cyclones home opener will be on April 12 at 7:00 P.M. against the Jersey Shore Blue Claws (Phillies).
Coaching
Right now, the Mets are paying Buck Showalter a lot of money to manage a team which is not set to play. That leaves Showalter with the job of preparing to prepare for the season. In some ways, that’s extremely beneficial for the new staff with new coaches like Eric Chavez to come to work together.
It also gives them an opportunity to work with the minor leaguers in Spring Training, and perhaps, depending on the length of the lockout, to travel to work with some of the minor leaguers. This presents an enormous opportunity for players like Brett Baty, who is battling with Vientos for that future third base job. More than that, it allows some of the more unheralded prospects like a Harol Gonzalez to make an impression in camp and get an advocate from the Major League coaching staff in their corner.
That just speaks to just how different everything will be for minor leaugers. Yes, the players not on the 40 man roster will have no change to their schedule. They will report to Spring Training at the same time, and they will play the games like they normally do.
However, they will also get more exposure to Major League coaching, and they have more of an opportunity to distinguish themselves. Moreover, they will get to prepare for their season and work on their games while fellow minor leaugers who are on the 40 man roster will be at home unpaid and without a chance to work with their coaches to improve their game.