Seth Lugo

Stanton Owns deGrom

Fun fact: Giancarlo Stanton absolutely crushes Jacob deGrom:

How do you hit the scoreboard in that park?  It’s bigger than Yosemite. That ball travelled 441 feet, and it gave the Marlins a 3-2 lead. 

Stanton would follow with an RBI single in the fourth expanding the lead to 4-2. On the year, Stanton is 5-5 with three homers against deGrom this year. 

It was part of a night that saw deGrom get chased early from the game.  In his prior starts, his velocity seemed to be increasing, but in the fourth inning it dropped to the 90-91 MPH range. After he departed in the fourth, Seth Lugo would walk Marcell Ozuna and Derek Dietrich back-to-back thereby walking in a run which was charged to deGrom. deGrom’s final line would be 3.2 innings, 10 hits, five earned, one walk, and five strike outs. This outing would raise deGrom’s ERA from 2.38 to 2.76. 

For his part, Lugo would finally allow his first earned run in the majors when Prado hit a fifth inning RBI single scoring Adeiny Hechavarria. 

It should be noted Lugo was double-switched into the game along with Alejandro De Aza as Terry Collins seems to be the only person remaining who has faith in De Aza. De Aza took over for Juan Lagares, who started the game despite the Marlins starting the right-hander Jose Fernandez. Lagares was presumably starting as Yoenis Cespedes is still dealing with the quad, and the Mets didn’t want to see Curtis Granderson in center again. 

Eventually, the game got out of hand. As a result, we got to see Antonio Bastardo pitch two innings only allowing a run (minor miracle). It got out of hand enough for Collins to put Michael Conforto in center in the bottom of the sixth. He would get only one chance catching an Ozuna pop out with aplomb. 

Conforto getting an opportunity in center was about the only good thing that happened on the night. Jose Reyes continued his struggles against righties going 1-5. Asdrubal Cabrera channeled his inner Gregg Jefferies going 0-2 with runners in scoring position stretching his streak to 0-31 (Jefferies was 0-37). Neil Walker continued to be Neil Walker. All that combined, and you get a 7-2 loss. 

Game Notes: The Mets two runs came off a Cespedes third inning RBI single followed by a James Loney sacrifice fly. 

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Mets Potential Bullpen Targets

Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia have combined to hold the lead in 33 of 34 chances in which they have been given a lead in the eighth inning or later.  Jerry Blevins, the purported LOOGY, has actually held right-handed batters to a lower batting average while pitching to a 2.08 ERA.  Hansel Robles has been a veritable Swiss Army knife in the bullpen.  One day, he’s pitching 3.2 innings to help preserve the bullpen after a starter gets knocked out a game early.  The next, he’s coming into the game to get the Mets out of a no out bases loaded situation unscathed.  With these arms, the Mets have a dominating bullpen.

However, behind these arms is a question mark.  Jim Henderson has started to pitch well in his rehab assignment.  However, he has been a different pitcher since his ill advised April 13th appearance.  Seth Lugo has pitched six scoreless innings over three appearances.  However, each of these appearances were in low pressure situations, and Terry Collins does not appear to trust him enough to try him in a pressure situation.  Erik Goeddel entered the season with a 2.48 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 9.0 K/9, but he has struggled this year pitching to a 4.50 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and an 8.4 K/9.  There remains intriguing options in the minors like Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, and Paul Sewald.  Between this group, the Mets could piece together a fine bullpen.  However, as the Mets are in heat for playoff spot, they do not want to take any chances.

The Mets are even more committed to finding that one bullpen piece considering how the team now has some question marks in the rotation with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery, Steven Matz‘s bone spurs, and Noah Syndergaard‘s dead arm.  According to Marc Carig, the Mets lost out on Kevin Jepsen and believe the pricetag for Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress will be too high.  Further hampering the Mets pursuit are the trades the team has made over the past year and a half.  Still, they are looking to preferably add a reliever who can lock down the seventh inning thereby taking some stress off their starting pitchers.  With that in mind, here are some options the Mets could pursue:

Jeremy Jeffress – As noted the pricetag should be high as Jeffress has the Brewers closer has recorded 23 saves with a 2.35 ERA and a 3.39 WHIP.  He is also under team control until 2020.

John Axford – Axford has some ugly numbers this year with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.579 WHIP for the last place Oakland Athletics.  However, it should be noted that his velocity is still there and he still has the same bite on his curveball.  A new voice and a pennant race could rejuvenate him.  It should also be noted in the postseason, Axford has a 1.42 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and a 12.8 K/9.

Brad Hand – Like many relievers, Hand has seemingly figured things out in San Diego after having mostly struggled in his first five years with the Marlins.  He has a 2.94 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP this year as opposed to the 4.71 ERA and 1.424 WHIP he had with the Marlins.  Part of the reason for his success is his increased use of his slider which is a pitch that has generated a high percentage of swings and misses.  Hand does profile as the type of pitcher Dan Warthen has had success with during his tenure with the Mets.

Ryan Buchter – The 29 year old career minor leaguer and Sewell, New Jersey native has taken full advantage of his first read shot in the majors with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.098 WHIP, and a 12.5 K/9 in 44 appearances.  Like what Antonio Bastardo was supposed to be, he is a cross-over lefty.  Like his teammate Hand, he relies upon his fastball and slider to get outs.  However, unlike Hand, he throws it with greater velocity with a 94 MPH fastball and an 87 MPH slider.  Again, he is the type of pitcher that typically fairs well under Dan Warthen’s tutelage.

Chris Withrow – In his first season post-Tommy John, Withrow has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP in 33 appearances for the woeful Atlanta Braves.  He is a Mets kind of pitcher as he is a power pitcher out the bullpen that has a mid nineties fastball and a high eighties slider.  He may not come cheap as he is under team control until 2020, and the Braves consider him their future closer.

Tyler Clippard – The main thing that will prevent Clippard from becoming a Met is his contract.  He is in the first year of a two year $12.25 million contract that will pay him $6.15 million next year.  Further diminishing the chances of a reunion is the fact that Clippard is having a career worst season with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP.  Like with Axford, the much cheaper option, the Mets would be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.  Like with Jose Reyes, the Mets would be hoping he is energized by putting on a Mets uniform again.

Adding one or more of these players should improve the Mets bullpen.  Regardless of whether or not the team adds one of these pitchers, or somebody else all together, they need Familia, Reed, Blevins, and Robles to continue pitching well out of the pen.  They also need Bastardo to figure things out sooner rather than later as it is his struggles that are precipitating this bullpen search. 

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There’s an “S” in RISP

One thing that has become apparent with this Mets offense is they forgot there is an “S” in RISP because time and again runners find their way to second and third only to die. It was more of the same tonight. 

The Mets were 0-7 with RISP. The team left seven runners on base in a game they lost 5-1. This includes, but is not limited to, the two runners left on base when Travis d’Arnaud hit into a 4-4-3 game ending double play. Coming into the night, he was hitting .190 with runners in scoring position. 

This includes Neil Walker striking out in in a critical eighth inning spot where he came to the plate as the tying run. Coming into the game, he was hitting .258 with runners in scoring position. The fact that it is higher than his batting average tells you how his season has gone since April. 

It includes Asdrubal Cabrera grounding into a double play killing a two on no out rally in the second with the score tied at zero. He’s now 0 for his last 28 with runners in scoring position. 

The other Mets who failed to get a hit with runners in scoring position tonight were Juan Lagares (.167), Curtis Granderson (.150), Yoenis Cespedes (.259), and Jose Reyes. As usual, the Mets couldn’t score a run unless someone hit a homer. In fact, the only run the Mets scored on the night was a Wilmer Flores solo shot off Jon Lester in the seventh. Unfortunately, with the Mets not hitting with runners in scoring position, it was too little too late. 

With the Mets struggles with runners in scoring position, the game was effectively over when Anthony Rizzo hit a three run third inning home run off Steven Matz. Matz’s final line would be five innings, eight hits, four earned, one walk, and five strikeouts. Again, he is not the same pitcher with the bone spurs as it is preventing him from incorporating his slider. Matz is now 0-7 in his last seven decisions. 

Making things worse was a ball going through Cespedes’ wickets in the bottom of the eighth. Albert Amora hit a single to left that most likely would’ve scored Matt Szczur, who had previously hit a two out double off Erik Goeddel.  Szczur could walk home easy after the ball went between Cespedes’ legs and continued all the way to the ivy. It should be noted, he had a good throw earlier in the game:

Still, there were some positives to the game other than the Flores’ home run. Seth Lugo remains unscored upon in his young career after pitching another two scoreless innings. Michael Conforto made a pinch hitting appearance, and he had a well struck opposite field single. 

Other than that, it was a lost night that leaves you scratching your head about the problems with runners in scoring position.  You need to be concerned about Matz’s pitching. And while it is too early to be concerned, it should be noted the Mets fell to third place in the NL East to the Miami Marlins, who also have sole possession of the second Wild Card as of tonight. 

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First Half Mets Minor League Pitching Leaders

Currently, MLB and many of their full season affiliates are at the All Star Break. At each and every level, the Mets had a minor league pitcher named to their level’s All-Star Game. Listed below is a synopsis of the Mets’ organizations leaders at the break:

Class A Full Season – Columbia Fireflies

Class A Advanced – St. Lucie Mets

Double-A – Binghamton Mets

Triple-A – Las Vegas 51s

  • Wins: Sean Gilmartin, Gabriel Ynoa (9)
  • Saves: Paul Sewald (9)
  • Strikeouts: Sean Gilmartin (77)
  • ERA: Gabriel Ynoa (4.19)
  • WHIP: Sean Gilmartin (1.32)
  • Games: Chasen Bradford, Josh Smoker (38)
  • Starts: Gabriel Ynoa (18 – League Leader)
  • Innings: Gabriel Ynoa (109.2)
  • Holds: Josh Smoker (9)
  • All-Stars: Gabriel Ynoa
  • Promotions: Seth Lugo

Organizational Leaders

  • Wins: P.J. Conlon COL & STL (10)
  • Saves: Alex Palsha COL (14)
  • Strikeouts: Joe Shaw COL, Tyler Pill BNG (88)
  • ERA: P.J. Conlon COL & STL (1.97)
  • WHIP: P.J. Conlon COL & STL (1.03)
  • Games: Chasen Bradford LV, Josh Smoker LV (38)
  • Starts – Gabriel Ynoa LV (18)
  • Innings – Gabriel Ynoa (109.2)
  • Holds – Josh Smoker LV (9)

* stats are updated through July 13, 2016

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net

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Jon Niese Could Be a Valuable Reliever

Last year, when it was apparent he was not going to be a part of the postseason rotation, Jon Niese volunteered to go to the bullpen. As it turned out, he became a valuable part of the Mets postseason bullpen. 

In five of Niese’s six postseason appearances, he did not permit a run. He was nearly perfect over 4.1 innings allowing just two hits while striking out five batters. He got a big strikeout of Anthony Rizzo in Game Two of the NLCS:

He kept the Mets alive in Game One of the World Series with two huge scoreless innings in the 10th and 11th innings. He bailed Steven Matz out of a tight sixth inning while seemingly being the only Mets pitcher to get Eric Hosmer out in a big spot. In a do-or-die Game Five, he pitched a scoreless tenth. Overall, Niese was terrific in big spots, and he came through when the Mets needed him most. It really was shocking given his well-earned reputation as a head case. 

In the offseason, the Mets traded him for Neil Walker, and even under the tutelage of arguably the best pitching coach in the game, Niese has been terrible going 7-6 with a 5.13 ERA, 1.574 WHIP, 80 ERA+, and a 5.49 FIP. These are easily the worst stats of his career, and as a result, Niese finds himself back in the bullpen. 

Somewhat surprisingly, the Mets are interested in a reunion with Niese. They’re possibly interested with Logan Verrett failing to recapture the magic he had as a spot starter last year. The Mets have to at least contemplate Niese as Sean Gilmartin and Gabriel Ynoa have pitched poorly over the past few months. Furthermore, the Mets do not seem inclined to stretch out Seth Lugo and give him a chance to start. 

Certainly, you can understand the Mets interest in Niese. However, it is still hard to imagine Niese is a better option for the rotation than the Mets internal candidates. It may be one of the reasons why the Mets are more interested in improving the bullpen than by adding Niese to the rotation. Given his performance last postseason, perhaps Niese could be the bullpen answer. 

There is some evidence from this season that Niese could be a useful bullpen piece.  In his first two innings of work, he has a 2.50 ERA. In his first inning of work, batters are hitting .234/.269/.375. In his second inning of work, batters are hitting .217/.308/.406. With runners in scoring position batters are hitting .250/.332/.352. When there are two outs and runners in scoring position, batters are hitting .093/.170/.140. 

Looking at these numbers, it’s fair to conclude that Niese has started games well but has fallen apart from the third inning on. These numbers should improve with Niese being reunited with Dan Warthen and with him maxing out for an inning or two. If Niese were to move to the bullpen, he could have a career renaissance similar to Oliver Perez, who was another unpopular Mets lefty starter who faltered. 

With that in mind, Niese could be the exact pitcher the Mets are looking to add. Once he’s in the fold, the Mets can then figure out what to do for the last spot in the rotation. 

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Mets Do Not Need Bullpen Help

As the trade deadline approaches, every team usually states that they need bullpen help, and those that are true contenders usually add an extra arm or two to the bullpen.  For example, back in 1999, one of the biggest strengths for a Mets team fighting for the NL East and the Wild Card was their bullpen.  Armando Benitez had taken over the closer role much earlier than anticipated.  Turk Wendell and Dennis Cook were having excellent seasons.  Pat Mahomes was a revelation as the long man in the bullpen.  Ex-closer John Franco was expected to return form injury to help with the playoff push.  Greg McMichael was having an off year, but he had previously been a valuable bullpen arm in a pennant race from his days with the Atlanta Braves.  On top of that, the Mets had some young promising arms to go to down the stretch with Jason Isringhausen and Octavio Dotel (even if Bobby Valentine thought they were better suited and belonged in the rotation).  Overall, the point being is the Mets did not need bullpen help.

Even with that being the case, a Mets team that was very active during the trade deadline made sure to acquire another arm for the bullpen by sending McMichael and Isringhausen for Billy Taylor.  It turns out Billy Taylor was washed up, and he would not even be on the postseason roster thereby forcing the Mets to make do with the already good bullpen pieces they had.  The Mets find themselves in a similar position than the 1999 Mets did.

The Mets bullpen is led to Jeurys Familia who is the best closer in the game. When needed, Familia can pitch two innings to get the big save that the Mets need.  The primary eighth inning set-up man has been Addison Reed, who is only sporting a 2.26 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP.  This duo has only lost one lead that has been given to them this year in 32 attempts.  Behind them is Hansel Robles who has done everything the Mets have needed in the bullpen.  He can come out and bail the Mets out of a bases loaded no out jam or pitch 3.2 terrific innings to save a Mets bullpen from a first inning injury to a starting pitcher.  Jerry Blevins has been an extremely effective LOOGY allowing lefties to hit .210/.269/.310.  By the way, he has been even better against righties limiting them to a .107/.188/.214 batting line.

Behind these pitchers are some very solid options.  There is Jim Henderson, who was great before Terry Collins abused his arm.  Henderson is currently in AAA on a rehab assignment.  Seth Lugo has been absolutely terrific out of the bullpen in his two appearances.  However, it is only two appearances, and there still remains a (remote) chance that he may wind up in the starting rotation with the Matt Harvey injury.  There is Erik Goeddel, who even despite one poor performance this season, still has a career 2.75 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP.  There is still Sean Gilmartin, who was an essential part of the Mets bullpen last year.  He is a starter in AAA, but if the Mets are that desperate for major league relief help that they will swing a trade, they should pull up a known quantity to help the team where he is needed.

If the Mets will consider calling up players from the minors, there are some good options in AAA.  Josh Edgin has a 2.45 ERA in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.  Paul Sewald has taken over as the closer, and he has recorded nine saves.  There is always the alluring Josh Smoker, who is having a down year but still sports a mid-nineties fastball.

Finally, in addition to all of these players, there is still Antonio Bastardo, who is going nowhere.  It is doubtful a rebuilding team will want to add him into the mix with his high salary and poor production.  The Mets are stuck with him, and they are going to be stuck with him for the full season, regardless of whether they make another move to add a reliever or not.  In essence, Bastardo is the reason why people mistakenly believe the Mets need bullpen help.  With that in mind, the best thing the Mets can do is to find a way to get Bastardo back on track.  That will help the Mets bullpen more than them adding another reliever.

Overall, the Mets bullpen is in fine shape with four outstanding relievers and plenty of good options behind them.  The Mets do not need a reliever.  They need to fix Bastardo since he’s going to be here whether or not the Mets make a trade.  With that in mind, the Mets should leave the bullpen as is and turn their attention to the teams other needs at the trade deadline.

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Seth Lugo Is a Better Choice Than Gabriel Ynoa Right Now

Matt Harvey having season ending surgery has put the Mets rotation in flux, and it could potentially lead towards the team deciding which one of their prospects should be added to the rotation. With Robert Gsellman only having made one AAA start and his being on the disabled list, there are only two prospects the Mets have to choose from – Gabriel Ynoa and Seth Lugo.

For many, the obvious choice is Ynoa. The 23 year old Ynoa has been regarded as one of the top prospects in the Mets minor league system. He has progressed rather quickly through the Mets minor league system which is all the more remarkable when you consider how conservative this front office tends to be with their prospects. In this his first full season in AAA, Ynoa was named a Pacific Coast League All Star. He is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in his first 17 starts. These are impressive numbers when you consider Ynoa pitches to contact and that he’s pitching in a hitter’s friendly league. Given his status as a Mets top prospect and the fact that he is pitching well in AAA, it seems like he would be the obvious choice to join the Mets rotation over a pitcher like Lugo.

The 26 year old Lugo was the Mets 2011 34th round selection out of Centenary College of Louisiana. That’s a Division III NCAA school. This season he lost his spot in the AAA rotation due to how poorly he had been pitching. Overall, Lugo has made 13 starts and six relief appearances going 3-4 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP. These are ugly numbers that were brought up time and again when the Mets first called him up to the majors to pitch out of the bullpen. However, in his first relief appearance, we quickly found out why we scout a pitcher for their repertoire instead of their stats when he struck out Anthony Rizzo with a filthy curveball:

As you can see, Lugo has a filthy curveball that can get fool even the best major league hitters. Lugo combines that pitch with a fastball in the mid 90s, a slider in the upper 80s, and a developing changeup. This is the repertoire Lugo used to pitch two scoreless innings against a Cubs team that has scored the most runs in the National League. This is the same repertoire Lugo was developing when he went 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP in five AAA starts last year. Overall, you can reasonably argue that Lugo’s fastball and curveball are two plus major league ready pitches. As we have seen with a number of Mets pitchers, time spent with Dan Warthen will only help him further develop that slider. Despite his early season struggles, he’s arguably more ready to succeed in the majors.

In fact, Lugo has had success in his limited work with the Mets this year.  In the aforementioned game against the Cubs, Lugo pitched two scoreless innings allowing only two hits while striking out two.  When he had to take the place of an injured Noah Syndergaard, Lugo responded with two scoreless and hitless innings against the Nationals.  Lugo is clearly proving he can get big league hitters out, and that the Mets should consider him for a rotation spot.

Montero, on the other hand, struggled in his last start.  He lasted only four innings allowing 10 hits, five earned, and one walk while striking out only two. In his last three starts, Ynoa has averaged 4.2 innings with a 9.42 ERA and a 2.163 WHIP.  Ynoa has hit a bump, and he needs to remain in AAA to make the necessary adjustments.

Right now, Lugo is better equipped to get out major league hitters.  He’s a better bet to succeed in the Mets rotation. Lugo should get his shot.

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Mets Suffered Four Losses Today

The only thing that matters about tonight’s game is the fact that Yoenis Cespedes left the game with a strained quad in the third and Noah Syndergaard left the game in the fifth with an apparent injury. It’s worth noting that Syndergaard’s last two fastballs were 93 and 91 MPH. He throws offspeed pitches faster than that. 

These injuries came on the heels of Matt Harvey announcing he was electing to have season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome. With Cespedes and Syndergaard leaving the game, Harvey’s season being over, and tonight’s 3-1 loss to the Nationals, the Mets would suffer four losses tonight. 

In the game tonight, Stephen Strasburg was awesome. He had a no-hitter going until Asdrubal Cabrera homered off of him in the fifth. Strasburg’s final line was seven innings, two hits, one earned, three walks, and nine strikeouts. 

Strasburg was able to win because the Nationals’ Mets killers showed up again. Clint Robinson hit a two run homer in the second, and Daniel Murphy, of course, hit an RBI double in the third. 

The Mets tried to muster a rally in the eighth beginning with a Wilmer Flores double off Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley. Jose Reyes followed with an infield single that Murphy stopped from going into the outfield while rolling over 2-3 times.  It was first and third with no outs, and Reyes would just stay there. He stayed there while Oliver Perez got Curtis Granderson to pop out to short. He stayed there when Juan Lagares, who came in for the injured Cespedes, hit into the inning ending 4-6-3 double play. That double play ended the Mets best shot to tie the game. 

If you want to take something positive from the day allowing you to smile like you’re Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo had another impressive performance. Lugo pitched two scoreless and hitless innings. Given Harvey’s injury and Syndergaard leaving tonight’s game, Lugo is making a case for himself to join the rotation. 

Game Notes: The Mets announced Syndergaard left the game due to arm fatigue and not due to issues related to his bone spurs. That’s not all that comforting either. 

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The deGrom-Lugo Parallel

Back in 2010 when Jacob deGrom was drafted out of Stetson University as a shortstop, you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the Mets organization that truly believed deGrom would not only be a future Rookie of the Year, but also one of the top pitchers in baseball.  In fact, deGrom wasn’t even seen as such when he was first called-up to the Mets in 2014.

At that point in time, the Mets were in a year of transition, and they were at the point of trying to figure out who could be a part of the team in 2015 when the Mets were really intent on becoming contenders.  One of the players called-up was obviously deGrom who was was 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.278 WHIP in seven starts in AAA.  This was a marked improvement from the pitcher who was 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.467 WHIP in 14 starts in AAA the previous year.  During said 2013 season, deGrom had made 10 starts in AA going 2-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.483 WHIP.  Sure, there were reasons to expect he could eventually pitch in the majors.  He was a four pitch pitcher that had a mid 90s fastball and a good slider.

When Dillon Gee went down with an injury, the 26 year old deGrom was called up to the majors to make a start in his stead.  There was no timetable on how long deGrom was going to either stay in the majors or in the rotation.  However, if push came to shove, the Mets were more inclined to move deGrom into the bullpen and let Rafael Montero stay in the rotation.  At that point, Montero was seen as a much better and more polished prospect who had good command and was a groundball pitcher.  What transpired was deGrom proved that his 2014 AAA season was no fluke.  He went on to make 22 starts that season going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.140 WHIP en route to becoming the National League Rookie of the Year.

He had surpassed Montero who had not pitched as well in his opportunity and who dealt with some injuries thereby opening the door for deGrom to forever solidify not only his place in the rotation, but also the Mets plans.

Right now, the Mets have a pitcher in Matt Harvey who is injured, and that is going to open the door for a pitcher to get a chance to show that they are capable of being part of this Mets rotation.  Much like in 2014, the prospects that are battling it out is a 26 year old in Seth Lugo who was never expected to be in this position and a 23 year old pitcher in Gabriel Ynoa who relies upon his control and groundballs to get outs.  Much like in 2014, the Mets have deemed the younger pitcher to be the better prospect.  In many ways, this could be the case of history repeating itself.

So far, Lugo has made one major league appearance.  In that one relief appearance, he showed that he has the stuff to get hitters out at this level.  Like deGrom, he has seemingly taken his game to the next level once he got called-up to the majors.  Right now, the only thing that really separates him and deGrom is the fact that deGrom got his chance to establish himself in the major league rotation.  Of course, it was easier for the Mets to give deGrom his shot in 2014 when the team was going nowhere.  It’s a lot harder to justify such a decision when the team is in the thick of both the NL East and Wild Card races.  And yet, with that in mind, the Mets should want to put the guys in the rotation that have the best chance to get batters out.

Arguably, that pitcher is Seth Lugo.  He just needs to get the chance deGrom did to prove it.

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Potential Matt Harvey Replacements

The news that Matt Harvey may miss a significant amount of time due to the possibility that he may have thoracic outlet syndrom is devastating to not only Harvey himself, but also to the Mets rotation.  While Harvey was struggling all year with a 4.86 ERA, he is also a pitcher who can rise up in big games.  We have seen it time and time again with him whether it was him almost pitching a perfect game against the White Sox, being named the starter for the 2013 All Star Game, or his Game 5 of the World Series performance.  He was an important part of the Mets, and if he has an extended absence, he is going to leave behind some pretty big shoes to fill.

As of right now, the Mets have not announced who will take Harvey’s spot in the rotation for Harvey’s next scheduled start.  Fortunately, the Mets organization is fairly deep in major league capable starting pitching talent.  Here is a list of the potential candidates:

Logan Verrett

Last year when the Mets were trying to manage Harvey’s innings, it was Verrett who temporarily took his place in the rotation.  In Verrett’s four spot starts last year, he was a very respectable 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA.  This included a brilliant performance Verrett had in Colorado limiting the Rockies to four hits and one earned run in eight innings.  Unfortunately, Verrett has not had the same success as a spot starter this year.  In his five spot starts, he is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA.  Part of those struggles may be attributed to the fact that Verrett has not been fully stretched out like he was when he took the ball for the Mets last year.  Accordingly, if Verrett was stretched out and able to pitch every fifth day, it would be reasonable to assume he could pitch as well as he did as a spot  starter last year – perhaps even better.

Sean Gilmartin

Verrett was picked over Gilmartin for the last spot in the Opening Day bullpen, and as a result, the Mets sent down Gilmartin to be a member of their AAA starting rotation.  Last year, we saw that Gilmartin knows how to get major league hitters out.  In 50 appearances, he was 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, a 2.75 FIP, and a 143 ERA+.  When he made multiple inning relief appearances last year, he was 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.  The only caution with Gilmartin is he has not been as successful this year as he was last year.  In his 13 AAA starts, he is 9-3 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.336 WHIP.  In his five major league relief appearances, Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP.  However, it should be noted Gilmartin’s struggles started when he was being jerked back and forth between Las Vegas and the Mets, between relieving and starting.  Before his first call-up, Gilmartin was 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.  Overall, Gilmartin has shown he can get major league hitters out and pitch well as a starter.

Seth Lugo

When Harvey was put on the disabled list, the Mets called-up Lugo who dazzled in his two inning relief appearance.  In that outing, Lugo used all five out his pitches to get a potent Cubs lineup out.  He featured a 94 MPH fastball and a wicked curveball.  He curveball was working so well he was able to get Anthony Rizzo to swing at a pitch that moved so much it would hit him on his back foot.  He certainly has the tools to be an effective starter even if he hasn’t had the results in AAA this year.  Given his repetoire and the ability to work with pitching coach Dan Warthen, the Mets just might have a pitcher who could blossom on the major league level similar to how Jacob deGrom did when he was called-up to the Mets in 2014.

Gabriel Ynoa

If the Mets are going to turn to their prospects for a solution, Ynoa deserves some consideration as well.  By any measure, the 23 year old Ynoa has been the Las Vegas 51s’ best starting pitcher.  In a hitter friendly league, the Pacific Coast League All Star is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in 17 starts.  The only questions with Ynoa is if the Mets believe he is ready to make the leap to the majors and whether his ability to enduce groundballs is a good fit for a Mets infield whose players have limited range.

Rafael Montero

If the Mets are inclined to take a risk with a Lugo or a Ynoa, they may be inclined to give Montero one last shot.  However, as we have seen with Montero, it gets harder and harder to justify giving him another opportunity.  When he was with the Mets this past year, he had an 11.57 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP in his two appearances thereby more than justifying Terry Collins‘ almost outright refusal to put him into a game.  Down in AAA, Montero is 4-6 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.888 WHIP in 16 starts.  This isn’t the same guy the Mets once thought had a bright future.  Keep in mind, the Mets thought he had a future as far back as last year when he made the Opening Day roster as a member of the bullpen.  Maybe just maybe giving this guy one last shot could wake him up, and it could bring out the best in him.  It’s possible working closely with Dan Warthen may allow him to fulfill the promise he had when the Mets valued him as a prospect.

Overall, the Mets have many directions they could go.  Each of the aforementioned starters could step-up and hold the fort until either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler is able to return from the disabled list to help lead the Mets back to the World Series.  Ultimately, this is going to be an opportunity for one or more of these pitchers.  It’s up to them to step up and stake a claim to a spot in the rotation.  It’s up to them to make it hard for the Mets to remove them from the rotation much like deGrom did in 2014 when he won the Rookie of the Year Award.  If one of these pitchers has a run like that, it would give the Mets six or seven terrific starters.  That would be an amazing problem to have.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com

 

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