Seth Lugo
The news that Matt Harvey may miss a significant amount of time due to the possibility that he may have thoracic outlet syndrom is devastating to not only Harvey himself, but also to the Mets rotation. While Harvey was struggling all year with a 4.86 ERA, he is also a pitcher who can rise up in big games. We have seen it time and time again with him whether it was him almost pitching a perfect game against the White Sox, being named the starter for the 2013 All Star Game, or his Game 5 of the World Series performance. He was an important part of the Mets, and if he has an extended absence, he is going to leave behind some pretty big shoes to fill.
As of right now, the Mets have not announced who will take Harvey’s spot in the rotation for Harvey’s next scheduled start. Fortunately, the Mets organization is fairly deep in major league capable starting pitching talent. Here is a list of the potential candidates:
Last year when the Mets were trying to manage Harvey’s innings, it was Verrett who temporarily took his place in the rotation. In Verrett’s four spot starts last year, he was a very respectable 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA. This included a brilliant performance Verrett had in Colorado limiting the Rockies to four hits and one earned run in eight innings. Unfortunately, Verrett has not had the same success as a spot starter this year. In his five spot starts, he is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA. Part of those struggles may be attributed to the fact that Verrett has not been fully stretched out like he was when he took the ball for the Mets last year. Accordingly, if Verrett was stretched out and able to pitch every fifth day, it would be reasonable to assume he could pitch as well as he did as a spot starter last year – perhaps even better.
Verrett was picked over Gilmartin for the last spot in the Opening Day bullpen, and as a result, the Mets sent down Gilmartin to be a member of their AAA starting rotation. Last year, we saw that Gilmartin knows how to get major league hitters out. In 50 appearances, he was 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, a 2.75 FIP, and a 143 ERA+. When he made multiple inning relief appearances last year, he was 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The only caution with Gilmartin is he has not been as successful this year as he was last year. In his 13 AAA starts, he is 9-3 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.336 WHIP. In his five major league relief appearances, Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP. However, it should be noted Gilmartin’s struggles started when he was being jerked back and forth between Las Vegas and the Mets, between relieving and starting. Before his first call-up, Gilmartin was 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. Overall, Gilmartin has shown he can get major league hitters out and pitch well as a starter.
When Harvey was put on the disabled list, the Mets called-up Lugo who dazzled in his two inning relief appearance. In that outing, Lugo used all five out his pitches to get a potent Cubs lineup out. He featured a 94 MPH fastball and a wicked curveball. He curveball was working so well he was able to get Anthony Rizzo to swing at a pitch that moved so much it would hit him on his back foot. He certainly has the tools to be an effective starter even if he hasn’t had the results in AAA this year. Given his repetoire and the ability to work with pitching coach Dan Warthen, the Mets just might have a pitcher who could blossom on the major league level similar to how Jacob deGrom did when he was called-up to the Mets in 2014.
If the Mets are going to turn to their prospects for a solution, Ynoa deserves some consideration as well. By any measure, the 23 year old Ynoa has been the Las Vegas 51s’ best starting pitcher. In a hitter friendly league, the Pacific Coast League All Star is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in 17 starts. The only questions with Ynoa is if the Mets believe he is ready to make the leap to the majors and whether his ability to enduce groundballs is a good fit for a Mets infield whose players have limited range.
If the Mets are inclined to take a risk with a Lugo or a Ynoa, they may be inclined to give Montero one last shot. However, as we have seen with Montero, it gets harder and harder to justify giving him another opportunity. When he was with the Mets this past year, he had an 11.57 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP in his two appearances thereby more than justifying Terry Collins‘ almost outright refusal to put him into a game. Down in AAA, Montero is 4-6 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.888 WHIP in 16 starts. This isn’t the same guy the Mets once thought had a bright future. Keep in mind, the Mets thought he had a future as far back as last year when he made the Opening Day roster as a member of the bullpen. Maybe just maybe giving this guy one last shot could wake him up, and it could bring out the best in him. It’s possible working closely with Dan Warthen may allow him to fulfill the promise he had when the Mets valued him as a prospect.
Overall, the Mets have many directions they could go. Each of the aforementioned starters could step-up and hold the fort until either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler is able to return from the disabled list to help lead the Mets back to the World Series. Ultimately, this is going to be an opportunity for one or more of these pitchers. It’s up to them to step up and stake a claim to a spot in the rotation. It’s up to them to make it hard for the Mets to remove them from the rotation much like deGrom did in 2014 when he won the Rookie of the Year Award. If one of these pitchers has a run like that, it would give the Mets six or seven terrific starters. That would be an amazing problem to have.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
Steven Matz has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, and the Mets talked him out if having inseason surgery to remove them. Noah Syndergaard also has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, but it appears like it’s nowhere near as serious as Matz’s. Zack Wheeler has had a number of setbacks in his Tommy John rehab, and the best case scenario has him returning to the Mets mid to late August. Now, worst of all, Matt Harvey may have thoracic outlet syndrome.
Anyone one of these pitchers may miss an extended period of time, and the Mets replacements are less than inspiring.
First up as always is spot starter Logan Verrett who has a 5.32 ERA in his five starts this year. Sean Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA in his limited appearances with the Mets this year. Seth Lugo had an electrifying one inning appearance before bring sent back down to AAA where he has a 6.55 ERA. Rafael Montero hasn’t been much better with his 6.31 AAA ERA and his 11.57 major league ERA. Finally, there’s 23 year old Gabriel Ynoa who may not be ready for the majors.
For a team that is built on pitching, these are not viable options. These pitchers are not carrying these Mets back to the World Series like the pitching did in 2015.
No, the Mets need a pitcher like Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has made 13 starts this year going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP. He’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH Warthen slider. If he was in the Mets rotation right now, he would arguably be the best pitcher in their rotation. At the very least, he’s top three. There’s one problem.
Fulmer’s a Tiger. Fulmer was one of 12 pitchers the Mets have traded away since the 2015 offseason. Make no mistake. Fulmer was the best of the lot.
Many have justified his departure as he was traded away to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would go off in August and September with an offensive display Mets fans haven’t seen since Mike Piazza was leading the Mets to back-to-back postseason appearances. The Mets would fall just short of the ultimate goal as they lost the World Series in five games.
Arguably, the Mets needed Cespedes to reach that point. However, in acquiring him, the Mets gave up Fulmer’s entire career. They gave up the very player they may need this year just to get back to the World Series. The Mets may have sacrificed their chances in 2016 and beyond for the run they made last year.
The reason is because pitching is fragile. No matter how good you think you have it there’s a bone spur, a torn collateral ligament, or a shoulder condition that can take an ace pitcher away. It’s why an organization needs as much high end pitching depth as it can get their hands on. Yesterday’s surplus becomes today’s necessity.
Fulmer was seen as surplus last year, and he was moved for Cespedes. With Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and Matz’s medical issues, he’s now a necessity that is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
Mother Nature provided the rain, but it was the Mets bats that provided the thunder. The Mets hit five home runs within the first five innings going ahead 10-1.
It started in the second inning with James Loney and Asdrubal Cabrera going back-to-back off Cubs starter Jason Hammel. Cabrera would hit another homer off Hamel in the fifth. That would be the second homer in the inning. The first was a Yoenis Cespedes laser shot. Cespedes needed to hit that homer as Brandon Nimmo hit a home run in the fourth inning that was one foot farther than Cespedes’ shot yesterday:
.@You_Found_Nimmo will remember this one forever. His 1st career homer was crushed into the bullpen. #Mets #LGM pic.twitter.com/PXtfed68Bv
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 2, 2016
It was Nimmo’s first career home run and curtain call. He followed it up by making a nice defensive play in the fifth:
It was a terrific night for Nimmo and the Mets.
By the way, since I do point this out when it happens
Brandon Nimmo: 410th player in Mets history to hit a HR, has as many as Bartolo Colón
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) July 2, 2016
The beneficiary of all these runs was Jacob deGrom. It was about time the Mets scored some runs for him too. The Mets had not given him more than two runs of support since May 27th. He’s had the fourth worst run support in the majors this year with the Mets scoring 2.89 runs per game for him (Matt Harvey has the second least with 2.79).
deGrom would finally get his first win since April 30th. His ability to get this win was in doubt as there was a rain delay for over an hour before the third inning. Terry Collins sent him out there anyway, and deGrom lasted five innings allowing three hits, one earned, and one walk with seven strikeouts. The lone run he allowed was a solo home run off the bat of Kris Bryant. It’s possible deGrom could’ve gone more than five as he was only up to 85 pitches. However, once there was another rain delay in the sixth, the third one of the game, deGrom was done for the night.
Needless to say, deGrom pitched much better out of the delay than Hammel did. The Mets pummeled Hammel in this 10-2 win like they did in Game 4 of the NLCS.
Game Notes: Loney was 3-4 with two runs, three RBI, a double, and a homer. He was a triple short of a cycle. He actually hit one this year. It was a June 18th game against the Braves. Seth Lugo made his major league debut in the eighth inning wearing number 67. He became the first Met to ever wear that number. Lugo got it up to 97 MPH showing real promise out of the pen. He pitched two scoreless innings allowing two singles, a HBP, and striking out a batter. He also had his first balk falling off the mound before delivering a pitch.
David Wright attended his second straight game. For safety reasons, he watched the game from the bullpen.