Noah Syndergaard
After heading into the All Star Break losing three straight to the Nationals and falling six games back in the division, many Mets fans were left in despair. Those feelings were only exacerbated by Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery, Noah Syndergaard leaving a game with a dead arm, and having Yoenis Cespedes go on the shelf with an injured right quadriceps. It was a first half in which the Mets under-performed and suffered many injuries. Still, what is lost in all of that is the fact that the Mets are currently tied with the Miami Marlins for the second Wild Card spot. Even with everything having gone wrong, this is still a playoff caliber team.
They are a playoff caliber team that is going to have their own fate in their own hands.
Right now, the Mets have 74 games left on the schedule. The winning percentage of the teams currently remaining on the Mets schedule is a combined .486. This includes 25 games against the Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and Minnesota Twins, who are the five worst teams in all of baseball heading into the All Star Break, and that is before these teams start trading off their better players heading towards the trade deadline. These games make up about one-third of the Mets remaining schedule. This is a great opportunity to make some headway in both the Wild Card and divisional races by beating up on the weaker teams in baseball.
The Mets will also have an opportunity to make some headway in the Wild Card race as well. The Mets have 10 games remaining against the Miami Marlins and six games remaining against the St. Louis Cardinals. If the Mets were to do well against these two opponents, they will be able to not only solidify their position as the Wild Card, but they will also be in a position to knock one of these two teams out of the Wild Card race. Also, keep in mind the Wild Card leader, the Los Angeles Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw on the disabled list, and the Dodgers are not sure when he will be able to return. The Dodgers are 37-38 in games not started by Clayton Kershaw. If Kershaw remains out for an extended period of time, the Dodgers will fall out of the race.
Of the remaining 41 games, the Mets only have 16 additional games against teams that are currently over .500. This includes tough teams like the Chicago Cubs, who the Mets most recently swept, and the San Francisco Giants, who the Mets have taken two of three games against so far this year. Overall, the Mets biggest challenge is going to be the six games they have remaining against the Nationals.
The other 25 games not previously discussed is against teams .500 and under. With so many games against average to bad baseball teams, the Mets second half schedule is very favorable. With 16 games against Wild Card opponents and six games against the Nationals, the Mets are in a position to beat the teams they are competing against for the Wild Card and National League East. Overall, the Mets could not ask for a better schedule to both win games and prove they are worthy of making the postseason. The only thing left for the Mets to do is to win those games and return to the postseason.
With homefield advantage on the line and the Mets in playoff position, Terry Collins managed the All Star Game like seemingly every other manager has previously managed the All Star Game. He put more of a premium on getting all the players in the game than winning the game. Well, everyone except his own players Jeurys Familia and Bartolo Colon. Other than the Mets players apparently being upset at this, it is hard to criticize Collins for how he managed the All Star Game. Still, there are many managerial decisions Collins has made in the first half of the season that invite scrutiny.
First and foremost, there is the way he handled Michael Conforto. First, he didn’t let him get any time playing right field in Spring Training. The end result of that was Collins putting Juan Lagares in right and Yoenis Cespedes in center on days that Curtis Granderson was given the day off. There really is no excuse for putting Lagares, possibly the defensive center fielder in the game, anywhere but center.
The other mistake is not letting Conforto hit against lefties until Madison Bumgarner took the mound. Collins was hampering his development by doing that. At the end of the day, this is the Mets best position player prospect, and in many ways, he was the second best hitter on the team. Collins was willing to sacrifice all that to get Lagares’ bat in the lineup instead of sitting an older Granderson who had the very platoon splits that worried Collins. By the way, Granderson is also 35 years old and could use the occasional day or two off. Conforto’s season began to fall apart, and he needed to be sent down to AAA. By the way, Collins is making the same mistake with Brandon Nimmo. However, it’s even worse with Nimmo as he’s doing it to get Alejandro De Aza‘s bat in the lineup.
While on the topic of developing players, Kevin Plawecki has faltered for yet another season under Collins’ tutelage. Last year, there were a number of excuses why Plawecki didn’t succeed from his being rushed to the majors to his sinus issues. This year, he had no such excuses, and he still didn’t produce. While Plawecki deserves a large amount of the blame, Collins certainly deserves some of it, especially when his position with Conforto is that he is not here to help players develop as major leaguers when the Mets have a win-now team.
Another major issue this year was Collins’ handing of Jim Henderson. Henderson was a feel good story that turned into a potential nightmare. The day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches, which is puzzling in its own right, Collins used Henderson to pitch in the very next game. He did it despite knowing that Henderson needed to be handled lightly due to his having two shoulder surgeries. He did it even after watching what happened with Johan Santana. Collins knew all of this, and yet he used Henderson in that spot as he said an April 13th game, the eighth game of the season, was deemed to be a must win game. Henderson’s production fell off after that, and now he is on the disabled list.
There was also his handling of Noah Syndergaard. Last year, the Mets wanted to initiate a six man rotation to alleviate some of the early innings Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom pitched early in the season. The idea was to both keep them healthy and keep them fresh for the length of the season. To be fair, Collins use of Syndergaard in any one particular start has not been egregious. However, it was curious how he shoehorned Syndergaard into a relief appearance after Syndergaard was ejected throwing at Chase Utley. The Mets had an opportunity to rest their ace until his next start. Instead, Syndergaard got the adrenaline going and was ramped up in a relief appearance on his throw day. By the way, in Syndergaard’s last start his fastball velocity dropped to 91 MPH, and he left the game with a dead arm.
Speaking of how he is handling pitching, it is amazing that Collins took part in talking Steven Matz out of opting for season ending surgery to address the bone spurs in his elbow that has clearly hampered his pitching. Not only was Collins willing to risk Matz suffering a more severe injury, he’s also willing to put a limited pitcher on the mound every fifth day. Keep in mind that since the bone spurs became an issue, Matz has been 0-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.430 WHIP. His slider usage has dropped from 13% to 3% of the time. It’s always troubling when a manager doesn’t protect his players. It’s even worse when he doesn’t protect the young injured ones.
There is also the curious drop in production this team has had since May 1st. Here’s how some of the Mets best hitters have fared since that point:
April | Since | |
Curtis Granderson | .241/.347/.471 | .238/.335/.453 |
Neil Walker | .307/.337/.625 | .232/.318/.345 |
Asdrubal Cabrera | .300/.364/.400 | .249/.305/.435 |
Michael Conforto | .365/.442/.676 | .148/.217/.303 |
Now, there are many factors to this including some of these players getting nicked up a bit. There’s something to be sad for the natural ebbs and flows of a season as well. There should be some note about the injuries to the players surrounding them. However, with all that said, these players have had a significant drop off in production under Collins’ watch. Whether it was helping them make adjustments and finding days for them to get the rest they needed, Collins didn’t do that as their manager.
There have been other issues dealing with Collins in-game management that could be highlighted as well. To be fair and balanced, it should be pointed out that Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, Matt Reynolds, and Rene Rivera have played far more games than the Mets ever wanted or expected them to play. It’s hard to expect a manager to win under those circumstances. It should also be noted that there were significant injuries to David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey which have further weakened the Mets.
Through all of that, Collins still has the Mets in a position to make the postseason. If he makes better decisions, and the Mets begin playing better, they should be in the postseason, and with that pitching staff, they still have a legitimate chance to return to the World Series.
The only thing that matters about tonight’s game is the fact that Yoenis Cespedes left the game with a strained quad in the third and Noah Syndergaard left the game in the fifth with an apparent injury. It’s worth noting that Syndergaard’s last two fastballs were 93 and 91 MPH. He throws offspeed pitches faster than that.
These injuries came on the heels of Matt Harvey announcing he was electing to have season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome. With Cespedes and Syndergaard leaving the game, Harvey’s season being over, and tonight’s 3-1 loss to the Nationals, the Mets would suffer four losses tonight.
In the game tonight, Stephen Strasburg was awesome. He had a no-hitter going until Asdrubal Cabrera homered off of him in the fifth. Strasburg’s final line was seven innings, two hits, one earned, three walks, and nine strikeouts.
Strasburg was able to win because the Nationals’ Mets killers showed up again. Clint Robinson hit a two run homer in the second, and Daniel Murphy, of course, hit an RBI double in the third.
The Mets tried to muster a rally in the eighth beginning with a Wilmer Flores double off Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley. Jose Reyes followed with an infield single that Murphy stopped from going into the outfield while rolling over 2-3 times. It was first and third with no outs, and Reyes would just stay there. He stayed there while Oliver Perez got Curtis Granderson to pop out to short. He stayed there when Juan Lagares, who came in for the injured Cespedes, hit into the inning ending 4-6-3 double play. That double play ended the Mets best shot to tie the game.
If you want to take something positive from the day allowing you to smile like you’re Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo had another impressive performance. Lugo pitched two scoreless and hitless innings. Given Harvey’s injury and Syndergaard leaving tonight’s game, Lugo is making a case for himself to join the rotation.
Game Notes: The Mets announced Syndergaard left the game due to arm fatigue and not due to issues related to his bone spurs. That’s not all that comforting either.
This past week three Mets were named as National League All Stars – Yoenis Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia. Familia is the seventh Mets closer to ever be named as an All Star. Can you name the other six? Good luck!
Steven Matz has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, and the Mets talked him out if having inseason surgery to remove them. Noah Syndergaard also has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, but it appears like it’s nowhere near as serious as Matz’s. Zack Wheeler has had a number of setbacks in his Tommy John rehab, and the best case scenario has him returning to the Mets mid to late August. Now, worst of all, Matt Harvey may have thoracic outlet syndrome.
Anyone one of these pitchers may miss an extended period of time, and the Mets replacements are less than inspiring.
First up as always is spot starter Logan Verrett who has a 5.32 ERA in his five starts this year. Sean Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA in his limited appearances with the Mets this year. Seth Lugo had an electrifying one inning appearance before bring sent back down to AAA where he has a 6.55 ERA. Rafael Montero hasn’t been much better with his 6.31 AAA ERA and his 11.57 major league ERA. Finally, there’s 23 year old Gabriel Ynoa who may not be ready for the majors.
For a team that is built on pitching, these are not viable options. These pitchers are not carrying these Mets back to the World Series like the pitching did in 2015.
No, the Mets need a pitcher like Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has made 13 starts this year going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP. He’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH Warthen slider. If he was in the Mets rotation right now, he would arguably be the best pitcher in their rotation. At the very least, he’s top three. There’s one problem.
Fulmer’s a Tiger. Fulmer was one of 12 pitchers the Mets have traded away since the 2015 offseason. Make no mistake. Fulmer was the best of the lot.
Many have justified his departure as he was traded away to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would go off in August and September with an offensive display Mets fans haven’t seen since Mike Piazza was leading the Mets to back-to-back postseason appearances. The Mets would fall just short of the ultimate goal as they lost the World Series in five games.
Arguably, the Mets needed Cespedes to reach that point. However, in acquiring him, the Mets gave up Fulmer’s entire career. They gave up the very player they may need this year just to get back to the World Series. The Mets may have sacrificed their chances in 2016 and beyond for the run they made last year.
The reason is because pitching is fragile. No matter how good you think you have it there’s a bone spur, a torn collateral ligament, or a shoulder condition that can take an ace pitcher away. It’s why an organization needs as much high end pitching depth as it can get their hands on. Yesterday’s surplus becomes today’s necessity.
Fulmer was seen as surplus last year, and he was moved for Cespedes. With Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and Matz’s medical issues, he’s now a necessity that is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
After getting swept by the Nationals, the Mets feel six games back in the National League East. The offense has been completely inept averaging 3.2 runs per game. The Mets went 11-15 over the course of the month despite playing only eight games against teams with a winning record. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs in their elbows. These days you’d be hard pressed to find a Mets fan that has any hope that the Mets could return to the postseason.
Lost in all of this is the fact that the Mets are only a half a game back in the Wild Card Standings.
Even if you assume the National League East is out of reach (it isn’t), the Mets are in the thick of a pennant race. Better yet, they are going up against the Dodgers, Marlins, and Cardinals. In order to make the postseason, the Mets need only beat out two of those teams. Each of the three teams the Mets are competing with are flawed teams with real problems.
St. Louis Cardinals
Outside of Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals rotation is struggling. Their other four starters have ERAs 4.09 and above, and ERA+s of 1o1 and below. To be at the point they are, they have had to rely on what has been a pretty good bullpen. With that said, their closer, Trevor Rosenthal, is having a horrible season with a 5.19 ERA.
Offensively, the team has a black hole in center field. It has come to the point where they are trying Kolten Wong out there. This is the same Wong the Cardinals had sent down for his inability to produce at second base. The Cardinals were able to move Wong to center because Jhonny Peralta finally came off the disabled list. Peralta is now the third baseman, but he is not hitting after returning from the disabled list.
On top of all of these problems, the Cardinals finish the season with 10 of their final 20 games against the Cubs and the Giants.
Miami Marlins
Barry Bonds has certainly had an impact on this team as seemingly not named Giancarlo Stanton is having a good season offensively. Stanton’s production is troublesome for the Marlins as he is not the same player for the Marlins a year after wrist surgery. Fact is, the Marlins need him as their starting pitching hasn’t been very good outside of Jose Fernandez.
The Marlins really don’t have a viable fifth starter. In reality, they don’t have much of a rotation past Fernandez. Adam Conley is their second best starter, and he is 4-5 with a 1.357 WHIP. The other rotation options have ERAs of 4.45 and above. With a rotation like that, it should come as no surprise that the Marlins are performing above expectations as they have both allowed and scored 326 runs. If the rotation continues to drag down this offense, we can reasonably expect this Marlins team to trek back towards the .500 mark.
In the event they are able to hang in the race, the Marlins are going to have to earn their way into the postseason with nine of their last 13 games coming against the Mets and the Nationals.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are currently leading the Wild Card race with a 43-37 record. That record is mostly driven by the greatness of Clayton Kershaw.
This season Kershaw is 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.727 WHIP. Name the pitching catergory, and you can rest assured that Kershaw is probably leading it. In games that Kershaw pitches, the Dodgers are 14-2 in games that Kershaw starts. If you removed Kershaw from the Dodgers rotation, the Dodgers would be 29-35 this year. That is not a team that would be in the thick of the Wild Card race let alone leading it.
Normally, that type of analysis is done to show why a pitcher like Kershaw should win the Cy Young and/or MVP awards. It is not done as an example to show why his team will not make the postseason. Yet, that’s the position the Dodgers are facing. Kershaw has been having back problems recently. He has received an epidural injection, and he is on the 15 day disabled list. As Mets fans have seen over the past few seasons, back injuries are funny things. Once it starts acting up, you do not really know when a player can returns.
With that in mind, we really don’t have an answer to the Cardinals, Marlins, or Dodgers question marks. As Mets fans, we become myopic in how we assess the Mets chances of making it back to the postseason. Day in and day out, we see the Mets put out a poor offense and begin to believe the Mets aren’t going anywhere. However, when you take a step back and look out over the National League landscape, the Mets are competing against other flawed teams for those two Wild Card spots.
Overall, despite the Mets recent struggles, this can still be a postseason team. As we saw last year, with the Mets pitching, the team just has to get there. Seeing the competition, they very well can.