Noah Syndergaard
Steven Matz has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, and the Mets talked him out if having inseason surgery to remove them. Noah Syndergaard also has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, but it appears like it’s nowhere near as serious as Matz’s. Zack Wheeler has had a number of setbacks in his Tommy John rehab, and the best case scenario has him returning to the Mets mid to late August. Now, worst of all, Matt Harvey may have thoracic outlet syndrome.
Anyone one of these pitchers may miss an extended period of time, and the Mets replacements are less than inspiring.
First up as always is spot starter Logan Verrett who has a 5.32 ERA in his five starts this year. Sean Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA in his limited appearances with the Mets this year. Seth Lugo had an electrifying one inning appearance before bring sent back down to AAA where he has a 6.55 ERA. Rafael Montero hasn’t been much better with his 6.31 AAA ERA and his 11.57 major league ERA. Finally, there’s 23 year old Gabriel Ynoa who may not be ready for the majors.
For a team that is built on pitching, these are not viable options. These pitchers are not carrying these Mets back to the World Series like the pitching did in 2015.
No, the Mets need a pitcher like Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has made 13 starts this year going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP. He’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH Warthen slider. If he was in the Mets rotation right now, he would arguably be the best pitcher in their rotation. At the very least, he’s top three. There’s one problem.
Fulmer’s a Tiger. Fulmer was one of 12 pitchers the Mets have traded away since the 2015 offseason. Make no mistake. Fulmer was the best of the lot.
Many have justified his departure as he was traded away to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would go off in August and September with an offensive display Mets fans haven’t seen since Mike Piazza was leading the Mets to back-to-back postseason appearances. The Mets would fall just short of the ultimate goal as they lost the World Series in five games.
Arguably, the Mets needed Cespedes to reach that point. However, in acquiring him, the Mets gave up Fulmer’s entire career. They gave up the very player they may need this year just to get back to the World Series. The Mets may have sacrificed their chances in 2016 and beyond for the run they made last year.
The reason is because pitching is fragile. No matter how good you think you have it there’s a bone spur, a torn collateral ligament, or a shoulder condition that can take an ace pitcher away. It’s why an organization needs as much high end pitching depth as it can get their hands on. Yesterday’s surplus becomes today’s necessity.
Fulmer was seen as surplus last year, and he was moved for Cespedes. With Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and Matz’s medical issues, he’s now a necessity that is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
After getting swept by the Nationals, the Mets feel six games back in the National League East. The offense has been completely inept averaging 3.2 runs per game. The Mets went 11-15 over the course of the month despite playing only eight games against teams with a winning record. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs in their elbows. These days you’d be hard pressed to find a Mets fan that has any hope that the Mets could return to the postseason.
Lost in all of this is the fact that the Mets are only a half a game back in the Wild Card Standings.
Even if you assume the National League East is out of reach (it isn’t), the Mets are in the thick of a pennant race. Better yet, they are going up against the Dodgers, Marlins, and Cardinals. In order to make the postseason, the Mets need only beat out two of those teams. Each of the three teams the Mets are competing with are flawed teams with real problems.
St. Louis Cardinals
Outside of Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals rotation is struggling. Their other four starters have ERAs 4.09 and above, and ERA+s of 1o1 and below. To be at the point they are, they have had to rely on what has been a pretty good bullpen. With that said, their closer, Trevor Rosenthal, is having a horrible season with a 5.19 ERA.
Offensively, the team has a black hole in center field. It has come to the point where they are trying Kolten Wong out there. This is the same Wong the Cardinals had sent down for his inability to produce at second base. The Cardinals were able to move Wong to center because Jhonny Peralta finally came off the disabled list. Peralta is now the third baseman, but he is not hitting after returning from the disabled list.
On top of all of these problems, the Cardinals finish the season with 10 of their final 20 games against the Cubs and the Giants.
Miami Marlins
Barry Bonds has certainly had an impact on this team as seemingly not named Giancarlo Stanton is having a good season offensively. Stanton’s production is troublesome for the Marlins as he is not the same player for the Marlins a year after wrist surgery. Fact is, the Marlins need him as their starting pitching hasn’t been very good outside of Jose Fernandez.
The Marlins really don’t have a viable fifth starter. In reality, they don’t have much of a rotation past Fernandez. Adam Conley is their second best starter, and he is 4-5 with a 1.357 WHIP. The other rotation options have ERAs of 4.45 and above. With a rotation like that, it should come as no surprise that the Marlins are performing above expectations as they have both allowed and scored 326 runs. If the rotation continues to drag down this offense, we can reasonably expect this Marlins team to trek back towards the .500 mark.
In the event they are able to hang in the race, the Marlins are going to have to earn their way into the postseason with nine of their last 13 games coming against the Mets and the Nationals.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are currently leading the Wild Card race with a 43-37 record. That record is mostly driven by the greatness of Clayton Kershaw.
This season Kershaw is 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.727 WHIP. Name the pitching catergory, and you can rest assured that Kershaw is probably leading it. In games that Kershaw pitches, the Dodgers are 14-2 in games that Kershaw starts. If you removed Kershaw from the Dodgers rotation, the Dodgers would be 29-35 this year. That is not a team that would be in the thick of the Wild Card race let alone leading it.
Normally, that type of analysis is done to show why a pitcher like Kershaw should win the Cy Young and/or MVP awards. It is not done as an example to show why his team will not make the postseason. Yet, that’s the position the Dodgers are facing. Kershaw has been having back problems recently. He has received an epidural injection, and he is on the 15 day disabled list. As Mets fans have seen over the past few seasons, back injuries are funny things. Once it starts acting up, you do not really know when a player can returns.
With that in mind, we really don’t have an answer to the Cardinals, Marlins, or Dodgers question marks. As Mets fans, we become myopic in how we assess the Mets chances of making it back to the postseason. Day in and day out, we see the Mets put out a poor offense and begin to believe the Mets aren’t going anywhere. However, when you take a step back and look out over the National League landscape, the Mets are competing against other flawed teams for those two Wild Card spots.
Overall, despite the Mets recent struggles, this can still be a postseason team. As we saw last year, with the Mets pitching, the team just has to get there. Seeing the competition, they very well can.
As the 2015 season began, the Mets finally had reason to hope. The main reason for that hope was Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. At that time, there was the hope the Mets would eventually get contributions from Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, but no one knew what, if anything, either could contribute in 2015. No, the 2015 season was about deGrom and Harvey.
Seemingly out of nowhere, deGrom had a spectacular 2014 season that saw him win the Rookie of the Year Award. Due to his performance, Terry Collins slated him ahead of Harvey in the rotation. Throughout the 2015 season, deGrom justified that season going 14-8 with a 2.54 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP. He would be the lone Mets All Star, and he would be the story of the All Star Game striking out three batters on 10 total pitches. In the NLDS, he out-dueled both Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke to pitch the Mets into the NLCS. During that season, deGrom established that he is as good as any pitcher in baseball including his teammate Matt Harvey.
In his first start of the 2015 season, Harvey declared he was back by shutting down the Nationals over six innings allowing only four hits and walking one while striking out nine. Future MVP Bryce Harper would go hitless. He defeated former first overall pick Stephen Strasburg. That start set the tone for a season in which Harvey would go 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP. Harvey carried this greatness forward in the postseason. In Game 5 of the World Series, Harvey showed the world why he’s a great pitcher. He shut down the Royals over eight innings while striking out nine. Once again, he gave Mets fans hope that the team could win the World Series.
The Mets need Harvey to give them hope again.
The Mets were absolutely bludgeoned last night with Noah Syndergaard on the mound. After the game, Syndergaard denied rumors that he is dealing with a bone spur issue in his pitching elbow. For his part, Steven Matz did not deny the issue. The question surrounding him was not only whether he could make his start tomorrow, but also whether he needed surgery. On a day like last nigh, you tend to focus on all the negativity surrounding the the Mets. The team is struggling offensively. They feel hour games back of the Nationals and back to third place in the National League East. There are questions abound about what is wrong with the Mets.
With a strong start tonight, Harvey can remind everyone what is right with the Mets. Harvey has a chance to turn around the Mets season like he has turned around his own season.
Harvey’s 2016 season got off to a nightmare of a start. In his first 11 starts, he was 3-7 with a gaudy 6.08 ERA and a 1.688 WHIP. Batters were teeing off on him to the tune of a .330/.376/.525 batting line. He was having difficulty striking anyone out. Finally, the mechanical flaw was found and fixed. In the five starts he made since fixing the mechanical flaw, Harvey has a 2.25 ERA and a 0.875 WHIP. Opposing batters have only hit .205/.237/.286 in that stretch. Simply put, Harvey is back. It’s a good thing too because the Mets desperately need him.
The Mets need Harvey to go out there tonight and shut down the Nationals like he’s done throughout his career. He needs to have a start like he did last April where he announces to the world that both Harvey and the Mets are back. He needs to combine with deGrom and carry the Mets rotation and team like everyone knows they can. As long as deGrom and Harvey pitch the way that they are capable, the Mets will have a legitimate shot at not only the postseason, but also another run to the World Series.
It’s time for Harvey to go out there tonight and remind everyone of that.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
Going into the season, the major concern was Tommy John. There was the fear that Noah Syndergaard would need Tommy John surgery due to his velocity and work load. There was concern over whether Zack Wheeler would be able to successfully return from Tommy John surgery. There was less of a concern about whether Josh Edgin could as well. There were concerns over how Matt Harvey would handle his second year post Tommy John surgery. All of that concern was misplaced.
As it turns out, everyone should have been concerned over bone spurs even if Syndergaard won’t admit he has one.Both Syndergaard and Steven Matz have gone from All Star Cy Young caliber seasons to everyone wondering if they need surgery, if their seasons are over. We don’t know when the problems began, but we do know that something is affecting them now.
Starting with Matz, who has admitted an elbow problem, there has been a precipitous drop off in his pitching. In a nine start stretch, Matz was 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP while averaging roughly 6.2 innings per start. He was limiting batters to a .222/.266/.282 batting line. At that point, Matz was the favorite for the Rookie of the Year award. He was putting up All Star caliber numbers. His last three starts present a much different pitcher.
In Matz’s last three starts, he is 0-1 with a 6.61 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP while only averaging roughly 5.1 innings per start. Batters are teeing off on him to the tune of a .324/.338/.529 batting line. What is really troubling in each of these starts is that Matz falls apart in the fifth inning. In each of the aforementioned three starts, he has no allowed one run through the first four innings of a game. The worst of it was when the woeful Braves offense chased Matz from the game after allowing six runs in two-thirds of an inning. Now, he’s missing today’s start, and the Mets are debating whether or not he needs surgery.
Syndergaard is a more interesting case as he’s denying the bone spurs rumors, but again like Matz something is wrong. As the season began, all we could talk about what Syndergaard’s new 95 MPH slider, and his emergence as the ace of the Mets pitching staff. Up until his last two starts, Syndergaard was 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and a 0.965 WHIP. He was averaging roughly 6.2 innings per start. He stymied batters limiting them to a .223/.252/.312 batting line. If Clayton Kershaw were not alive, we would have been talking not just about the Cy Young award but also the possibility that Syndergaard is the best pitcher in baseball.
In Syndergaard’s last two starts we saw something uncharacteristic from him. He struggled. While his pitching line from his June 22nd start against Kansas City didn’t raise any red flags his pitching did. Syndergaard didn’t seem to have the pinpoint command he has had all year, and on a couple of occassions, he crossed up his catcher Rene Rivera. At the time, it was seen as a blip on the radar, but after last night’s start and the reports from yesterday, there is a real reason for concern.
The Nationals, who are no offensive powerhouse themselves, took Syndergaard to the woodshed. Syndergaard only lasted three innings allowing five earned runs. To put it in perspective, Syndergaard only allowed five earned runs in all of April. He had a season high three walks. Runners were stealing bases left and right off of him and Travis d’Arnaud. Now Ron Darling did point out that he didn’t seem in sync with Travis d’Arnaud, but was that really the problem? This is the second straight start Syndergaard has had trouble locating pitches. There are a numbers of explanations why that could be the case, but after the reports of his having a bone spur in his elbow, the bone spur seems to be the most likely reason for Syndergaard’s recent struggles.
Overall, Matz and Syndergaard might be fine and be able to finish out the year. Right now, that proposition is a little hard to believe seeing them struggle recently and hearing news about bone spurs in their elbows. If Syndergaard and Matz are unable to pitch effectively through these bone spurs, the Mets are going to be in trouble. If that is the case, it will be bone spurs, not Tommy John, that will damage the Mets chances of going back to the World Series.
In the top of the third, the Mets went up 4-0, and it seemed like the game was over. The Mets were hitting Nationals’ starter Joe Ross hard. The Mets had Noah Syndergaard on the mound who never loses with a four run lead:
Noah Syndergaard is 13-1 in his career when the @Mets score 4+ runs in a game
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 28, 2016
Then the bottom of the third happened. The Nationals would send nine men to the plate. The Nationals scored five runs on five hits, one walk, and four stolen bases. Like most of baseball, the Nationals ran wild on Syndergaard:
.@Nationals running wild on division rivals with 6 stolen bases. https://t.co/KQ4dixHN7L pic.twitter.com/8XsZ3CS3Nz
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2016
Syndergaard just didn’t have it tonight. As Ron Darling would say, Syndergaard looked flustered. For a pitcher that rarely walks anyone, he issued three walks. He threw a wild pitch in the fateful third. With him previously complaining of some elbow soreness, and the recent Steven Matz news, there will be some Mets fans who panic. Mercifully, Collins pulled Matz after three innings after he threw 71 pitches allowing seven hits, five earned, and three walks with five strikeouts.
In true Mets fashion, an embattled Ross would settle down. Neither he nor the other Nationals pitchers would allow another run.
However, Sean Gilmartin and Erik Goeddel would. Gilmartin pitched two innings allowing seven hits, five earned, and one walk with one strikeout. Goeddel allowed a run on three hits with a walk and a strikeout in two innings. Amazingly, Antonio Bastardo was the only Mets pitcher that didn’t allow a run.
The only thing worse than the Mets pitching tonight was James Loney‘s defense. To say he had fall-down left, fall-down right range would’ve been complimentary. During the key rallies, there were a few balls hit by him that a first baseman with range could’ve fielded. He also made a mental error in the fifth inning. With the infield in, he fielded a ball off the bat of Ben Revere. Instead of stepping on first, he threw home to try to get Danny Espinosa, who he had no chance of throwing out at the plate. Revere would later score on a Jayson Werth double.
The fifth inning might still be happening if not for Werth’s classless play. With the score 10-4, Werth broke home on a Bryce Harper infield single, and Loney easily threw him out.
Overall, the Nationals beat the Mets in every way possible. It was an 11-4 laugher for them:
#Nats lead 6-4 heading to Bottom 5 thanks to Murph's 50th RBI of the season.#VoteMurph: https://t.co/H43Xregbxb pic.twitter.com/2u5qMfyJzI
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) June 28, 2016
Game Notes: Brandon Nimmo collected his first career hit and run scored. He finished the night 2-4 with a run.
When the Mets activated Travis d’Arnaud from the disabled list, they decided to send Kevin Plawecki down to AAA and keep Rene Rivera. Obviously, Rivera is going to serve as d’Arnaud’s backup, but there is also a possibility that he could have an expanded role with the team as Noah Syndergaard‘s personal catcher. It is a move that makes a lot of sense for both the Mets and Syndergaard.
It is no secret that Syndergaard struggles holding runners on base. This became painfully obvious on April 25th when the Reds were a perfect five for five in stolen base attempts. In Syndergaard’s next start, Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy each stole a base while he was pitching. Coming into that game, Crawford had stole 14 bases over five years and Duffy had not stolen a base all year. For his career, base runners were 27 for 30 in stolen base attempts when he was on the mound. Through May 1st, base stealers were 12/13 in five games This was something that could have become a mental issue for a pitcher that was on the brink of realizing his full potential as an ace.
After that game, Terry Collins began to have River catch Syndergaard. With In fact, Rivera has caught eight of Syndergaard’s last nine starts. In those eight starts, there have been fewer stolen base attempts. Part of this has been Syndergaard making adjustments. A larger part of that was Rivera’s arm behind the plate. While base runners are still having success on the base paths, Rivera’s presence has at least allowed Syndergaard to focus on the batter instead of being overly concerned with the running game.
Overall, Rivera’s presence is a big reason why he should be Syndergaard’s personal catcher. With the Rays, Rivera was a part in the development of Chris Archer, who is a pitcher with every bit of the potential and ability as Syndergaard. With Rivera behind the plate, opposing batters hit for a 93 OPS+ as opposed to a 100 OPS+ with other catchers. With Rivera gone this year, Archer is struggling. He is 4-9 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.442 WHIP. Rivera has had a similar effect on Syndergaard this year. When River is behind the plate, Syndergaard has a 2.12 ERA and 1.026 WHIP. This is the lowest ERA and WHIP combination Syndergaard has with any Mets catcher who has caught him for more than one game.
Aside from the positive effect of a Syndergaard/Rivera pairing, there is another consideration. Throughout his career, d’Arnaud has had trouble staying on the field. If the Mets were to give him every fifth day off during a Syndergaard start, it might allow him to be fresher as the season progresses. As he’s fresher, he may be less prone to injury. Presumably, not having his top hitting hand abused by Syndergaard’s 100 MPH fastballs could be beneficial to d’Arnaud when he’s at bat. Overall, this could be a very successful strategy that other pitching dependent teams have used in the past.
During the Braves run with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, Maddux used a personal catcher. It was mostly Eddie Perez who puts up similar offensive numbers to Rivera. Maddux felt comfortable with Perez behind the plate. Judging from Maddux’s Hall of Fame statistics, it’s hard to fault him for wanting his personal catcher. Meanwhile, Glavine, Smoltz, and the rest of the Braves’ starting staff used the Braves’ starting catcher which was the offensively superior Javy Lopez. With Lopez getting those additional days off, he was stronger as the season progressed, and he put up terrific offensive numbers. Given how similarly these Braves teams are built to the current Mets team, the Mets should really consider following this model especially when you see how well a Syndergaard-Rivera pairing has worked.
It seemed like disaster struck for the Mets. Both Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes were forced to leave Wednesday’s game due to injuries. For Cespedes, it was his left wrist. For Syndergaard, it was the dreaded elbow complaints. Speaking of elbow complaints, it appeared that Zack Wheeler had a Jeremy Hefner-like setback during his Tommy John rehab.
It was seriousness enough that the Mets weren’t screwing around this time. They immediately sent Cespedes and Syndergaard to see Dr. Altchek.
While these two Mets were getting themselves examined for potential season-ending injuries, Mets fans were left to drive themselves crazy. I spent most of the time trying to talk myself into Sean Gilmartin or Rafael Montero as a viable fifth starter. I looked to see how Brandon Nimmo‘s numbers would translate to the majors. I thought about moves like signing Yusileski Gourriel.
I kept reminding myself that Steven Matz was 7-3. I harkened back to last year when there was a big three of Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Jacob deGrom. We haven’t seen the best of Harvey or deGrom yet, and Matz had shown the ability to potentially replicate what Syndergaard last year. I kept telling myself the Mets were going to be fine. All they have to do is make the playoffs with that pitching staff and bullpen. It was possible.
Fortunately, Syndergaard put our minds at ease:
After that tidbit of good news, we learned neither he nor Cespedes are headed to the DL. Furthermore, tests revealed Wheeler has no structural damages.
We don’t know when Cespedes can return to the lineup, nor do we know if Syndergaard will make his next start. However, we do know they will play again in the near future. We also learned there is still hope for Wheeler returning to the Mets to pitch this year. It’s a huge relief.
Now, instead of staying up all night trying to dream up scenarios where the Mets can compete without their best hitter or pitcher, I can put my head down and go to sleep in peace. I imagine that I’ll dream of the Mets winning the World Series behind Cespedes, Syndergaard, and maybe even Wheeler.
All throughout the 2015 postseason, Alcides Escober swung at the first pitch of the game. In Game 1 of the World Series it led to an inside-the-park home run due largely in part to a Yoenis Cespedes misplay in center. In Game 2 of the World Series, he flew out to right field. In Game 3 of the World Series, Escobar didn’t swing at the first pitch:
Instead, Escobar took at step back at a pitch that was up and in from Noah Syndergaard.
After the game, when asked about the pitch, Syndergaard informed the Royals, and frankly all of baseball, that if anyone has a problem with the way he pitches, teams can meet him on the mound.
The next time Syndergaard pitched was in the second game of the regular season in Kansas City. There was no controversy at the time as he never moved any of the Royals off the plate. Also, since he never came up to bat, there was no fear of retribution from the Royals whatsoever. Today is a different story. Today, Syndergaard takes the mound against the Royals at Citi Field. At some point during the first three innings, he is going to dig in at the batter’s box, and the Royals are going to have an opportunity to exact revenge against Syndergaard the way he tried to exact revenge against Chase Utley this season.
Keep in mind, the Royals don’t shy away from throwing at batters. It was just this month that Yordano Ventura sparked a brawl by continuously throwing inside to Manny Machado until he finally hit him. Even with the Royals starting Danny Duffy, the chance for retribution remains. This is the same Royals team that was involved in five benches clearing incidents last year. They’re not afraid of another. They won’t be afraid of plunking Syndergaard.
If it does, it will be very interesting to see how Syndergaard, the umpires, and the Mets respond.