Michael Fulmer
We knew the New York Mets trading David Robertson was coming. After all, Robertson was on a one year deal, and with the Mets completely out of it, he needed to be moved at the trade deadline. With closers traditionally netting good returns, he was a must move.
The shock was that Robertson was moved to the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are surprisingly still in the heat of the race to the postseason. They’re also never a team you think would be adding money at the deadline. All that said, there they were making a huge move at the trade deadline.
For the Mets, the return was a bit of a shock. Perhaps, that is a big reason why much of the reaction has been misplaced.
First thing we need to ignore is the prospect rankings. Those rankings were made before the season, and they do not account for the progress prospects have made, and none of them account for the 2023 draft.
Another important note here is no top 10 or 20 prospect in an organization is the same. A top 10 prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers system is a whole lot different than being a top 10 prospect in the San Diego Padres system. The Dodgers are loaded, and the Padres aren’t.
An example there is when the Mets traded Michael Fulmer to the Detroit Tigers in 2015 for Yoenis Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the talk was the Mets traded a prospect who was rated outside their top 15 prospects.
Well, that wasn’t exactly true. As we discovered soon thereafter, Fulmer was vaulting up lists and would be a top 100 prospect, and he would actually become the Tigers fifth best prospect. The following season he would be the American League Rookie of the Year. This is all a long winded way of saying ignore prospect rankings and generally see what the discussion is on the prospects.
With Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez, the Mets got very high ceiling players. Both make a great deal of contact, don’t strike out, have great plate disciple, and they have very real power potential. On one or both, we may one day be talking about how the Mets absolutely stole these two prospects from the Marlins.
These are prospects who typically are thrown into a deal to try to pry a major leaguer away from a team. An example here was the Mets jumping into the Joe Musgrove trade by sending Endy Rodriguez to the Pittsburgh Pirates so they could get Joey Lucchesi from the San Diego Padres. We have also seen the Mets send Felix Valerio to the Milwaukee Brewers to help grab Keon Broxton.
Put another way, the Mets have been throwing prospects like Vargas and Hernandez away for years for bit players. Now, they’re using a big trade chip to get prospects of this caliber (perhaps even better than that).
Another thing that immediately stood out was this really didn’t address the Mets organizational needs. The team needs pitchers and outfielders at the upper levels of the minors who can contribute in the next year or two at the major league level. The Marlins did not have the outfielders that fit that bill, but they did have the pitching.
Certainly, there were other teams out there who had what the Mets needed. That said, we don’t know if those teams were actively pursuing Robertson, and if those types of prospects were even put on the table.
There are some who like the return for the Mets, and there are many who don’t. It does seem a little underwhelming, but ultimately, the trade is going to be adjudged by the Mets player development’s ability to make Vargas the type of prospect the Mets desperately need him to be.
All that said, this was the type of trade a team makes when they are tearing it down for a rebuild. With Justin Verlander reportedly being shopped at the deadline, perhaps that’s what the Mets are doing. Maybe not.
With the Mets failing the way they have this season, there is much uncertainty surrounding the future of the team. This does not seem to be a team set for a complete rebuild, which makes this type of trade stand out. In the end, the Mets have a lot of work to do before the trade deadline and even more this offseason. Whatever the case, their system is better for having Vargas and Hernandez in it.
Back in 2015, the New York Mets made the mistake of trading Michael Fulmer to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. No, it was not a mistake to obtain Cespedes, but rather, Fulmer was far too high a price to pay. As it would turn out, the Mets needed starting pitching the ensuing two seasons where Fulmer was winning Rookie of the Year and being named an All-Star.
Well, from there, Fulmer had some injury prone years and moved to the bullpen. For his part, Cespedes needed double heel surgery, and then, he would have an incident falling off his horse or something with a feral hog during his rehab. The details are still murky.
Regardless, the Detroit Tigers received a 12.2 WAR out of Fulmer and a prospect at the trade deadline. The Mets received an epic run from Cespedes amounting to a 2.1 WAR and not postseason production at the plate past Game 3 of the NLDS. In essence, the Mets made a win-now trade and didn’t win.
Fast-forward to 2023, and Fulmer is a free agent while Cespedes is trying to get back into the majors. The Mets are also looking to build a bullpen which can get them their first World Series since 1986. It already looks formidable with the following relievers in place:
There are other pitchers in the mix, but these are the relievers who are guaranteed. With five starters, that leaves up to four more relievers who can be added. The presumption is at least two of Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill, and David Peterson will start the season in Triple-A to provide organizational starting pitching depth.
That probably leaves pitchers like Jeff Brigham and John Curtiss on more of a solid footing to make the Opening Day bullpen than they probably should. Even with those names likely to make the bullpen, the Mets are still at least one arm short.
Fulmer, 29, would be an excellent fit. As a reliever, he has a 128 ERA+. As per Baseball Savant, he does an exceptional job limiting hard contact and barrels. We’ve also seen Jeremy Hefner work well with pitchers how have a similar repertoire. All told, he probably remains the best arm remaining on the market.
While we are very confident in this Mets roster, they probably remain an arm short in the bullpen. Fulmer would go a long way to resolving that issue and make this Mets team even better. All this time later, the Mets now need to sign Fulmer instead of trading him to try to help put this Mets team over the top.
The New York Mets thought their offense needing addressing at the trade deadline, and they set out to do it. Apparently, that was really their objective.
It’s undeniable Tyler Naquin, Darin Ruf, and Daniel Vogelbach make this a more potent offensive team. When you look at the high prospect cost, it appeared the Mets were not going to let prospects stand in the way of a World Series.
So, then, how does Billy Eppler and the Mets explain only coming away with Mychal Givens to bolster the bullpen at the trade deadline?
Keep in mind, Colin Holderman was having a better season than Givens. Yes, Givens is having a good season, and he has a good track record, but overall, Holderman was better leaving the Mets in a worse spot than when they entered the trade deadline.
This is where you wonder what Billy Eppler was thinking.
He traded Holderman because of a purported robust relief market. Then, on the trade deadline, he admits it wasn’t all that robust, and that the prices were too high.
This doesn’t pass the smell test.
The Philadelphia Phillies acquired David Robertson from the Chicago Cubs for prospect Ben Brown, a soon to be Rule 5 eligible pitcher who has not reached Double-A. Sure, he’s the Phillies seventh best prospect, but their system is one of the very worst in the game.
The Minnesota Twins made an intra-division trade to acquire Michael Fulmer from the Detroit Tigers. The cost was pitching prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long. He’s a 24 year old former sixth round pick with a 7.17 ERA in Double-A.
Baltimore Orioles All-Star closer Jorge López went to the Twins as well. Admittedly, it took quite a haul to get him. Really, he’s just about the only reliever who came at a steep cost.
Raisel Iglesias was basically a salary dump to the Atlanta Braves. The Mets could’ve thought outside the box to bring Noah Syndergaard back to recreate Game 5 of the NLDS. That Mickey Moniak led return was laughable.
Then again, so is the notion the Mets are going to the postseason with Tommy Hunter and Joely Rodriguez in their bullpen.
Now, it’s imperative Trevor May is healthy, effective, and has the stamina the rest of the way. Seth Lugo needs to further prove he’s all the way back. Adam Ottavino needs to continue this run.
Drew Smith and Tylor Megill may need a miracle to be 100% in time for the postseason, and Megill has to show he can pitch in the pen. David Peterson has shown he couldn’t, but now, he needs to be in that mix again.
That’s hope, and hope is not a plan. Whatever the case, that’s what the Mets are left with after the trade deadline. They just have to hope it’s enough.
That’s a dereliction of duty by Eppler, and that goes double when you consider his excuses in trading Holderman. What makes this all the worse is the relatively low prices at the deadline, and the Mets overpaying for bats.
In the end, we just have to hope the Mets have enough. If not, they’ll forever lament not going all-in as their trades indicated they were. They’ll be left wondering why they didn’t try to do all they could to win the World Series and why they gave up so much just to fall short.
Thanks to the Washington Nationals, we can’t watch New York Mets baseball just yet. What we could do was see former Mets pitchers in action.
Matt Harvey took the ball for the Baltimore Orioles, and he looked good. His slider was moving, and he touched 95 MPH. Unfortunately, he fell one-third of an inning short of the win.
Matt Harvey, 94mph Fastball…and gets the fist pump from Severino. pic.twitter.com/A7rSeI92sG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2021
Zack Wheeler took the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he’d have more hits himself than he allowed. He was 2-for-3 with a double and two RBI.
Zack Wheeler was rollin'. pic.twitter.com/hdXs1mqI3k
— MLB (@MLB) April 3, 2021
On the mound, he struck out 10 over 7.0 innings with the only hit against him coming from Travis d’Arnaud.
We also saw the former bullpen arms do well. Darren O’Day pitched 0.2 scoreless and picked up a hold. Michael Fulmer picked up a hold for pitching a scoreless inning while hitting 95 MPH.
All-in-all, it was a pretty good day for former Mets pitchers. Hopefully, that momentum for Mets pitchers will confine when the Mets are finally able to start their season on Monday.
One of the best parts of the Mets organization this past decade was how they drafted. In fact, the only first round draft picks to not make the majors were in the past three years, and all three of those players appear on their way to be Major Leaguers.
It’s difficult picking out who was the best pick.
Matt Harvey started the 2013 All-Star Game and had big starts in the 2015 postseason. Brandon Nimmo has a career .387 OBP, and he was the second best hitter in the National League in 2018. Michael Fulmer won a Rookie of the Year and was an All-Star. There’s also Jarred Kelenic who has quickly made his way through top 100 rankings.
Keep in mind, these are some of the impressive draft picks who didn’t make the top five. Here are those who did:
5. Pete Alonso
In one year, Alonso set the all-time rookie home run record and the Mets single season record. He’d be the first Mets position player named an All-Star in his rookie season, and he’d win the Home Run Derby.
Alonso was more than just the outlandish numbers. He emerged as a young leader. He responded to MLB’s absurd First Responder caps by getting cleats for the entire team.
More than being a great player, he is someone who truly gets it. The fact he was a second round pick makes him an absolute steal of a pick.
4. Seth Lugo
No, Lugo is not the best player on this list, but it’s important to remember he was just a 34th round draft pick.
Players picked in that round are not expected to make it to the majors let alone have a significant impact at the Major League level.
In 2016, he helped save the season pitching to 2.67 ERA as a reliever and starter helping the Mets reach consecutive postseason for the second time in team history.
Over the past two years, he’s emerged as arguably the biggest bullpen weapon in the game. For instance, he was the only reliever last year to finish in the top four in the league in innings pitched and FIP.
3. Jeff McNeil
In short order, McNeil went from “just a second baseman” to a jack of all trades akin to Ben Zobrist in his prime.
On top of that, his 141 wRC+ since his MLB debut is 13th best in the sport. It’s one of the reasons he was an All-Star this year.
When you get a player who is a good defender at multiple positions and is one of the better hitters in the sport with a first round pick, you’re thrilled. Getting that from your 12th round pick in the 2013 draft is the stuff of legends.
2. Michael Conforto
Very rarely is a player ready for the Majors one year after being drafted, but Conforto isn’t most players.
Conforto was a godsend in 2015 providing an offensively starved team with a potent bat. More than that, in the 2015 World Series, he was actually led all players in OPS. That was highlighted by his hitting two homers in Game Four.
While he had some injury issues, he’d be a 2017 All-Star, and he’s now all the way back from his shoulder injury. His value goes beyond his bat as he has played all three outfield positions to help the team with their needs.
So far, he has the ninth best wRC+ among Mets with at least 500 games played. He’s top 20 in WAR among position players, and he’s on the cusp of the top 10 in a number of categories including homers.
So far, he’s been a key figure in a pennant winning team, and he’s already a top 10 offensive player. That’s all before he’s reached his prime.
1. Jacob deGrom
The 2014 Rookie of the Year. Struck out the side on 10 pitches in the 2015 All-Star Game. Beat Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in the NLDS. Won back-to-back Cy Young’s.
Not only has deGrom emerged as a top three pitcher in Mets history, but with him being drafted in the ninth round of the 2009 draft, he’s not only the top draft pick of the decade, he’s also the best draft pick the Mets organization has ever made.
On July 31, the New York Mets obtained Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would become an instant star with the Mets hitting .287/.337/.604 with 14 doubles, four triples, 17 homers, and 44 RBI in just 57 games. After the Mets would win the pennant, fans clamored for his return.
Cespedes would return, and he’d be as impressive in 2016 helping the Mets grab the top Wild Card spot. He’d opt out of that contract, and he would sign a four year deal that has not gone nearly as well. Over the first two years of the deal, he’d hit an impressive .282/.343/.525, but he’d only play 119 games out of a possible 324 games.
With Cespedes having season ending heel surgery in 2018 and his falling into a hole on his ranch, he would not play at all in 2019 meaning he’s only played 119 games out of a possible 486 games over the first three years of his deal. Who knows if he will be able to play at all in 2020?
The key piece going to the Detroit Tigers was Michael Fulmer. Like Cespedes, Fulmer had two strong years after the trade before succumbing to injury. In 2016, Fulmer was the Rookie of the Year, and in 2017, Fulmer was an All-Star.
In 2018, Fulmer had a down year as he dealt with various injuries. After season ending knee surgery that year, he would be diagnosed with a torn UCL before Spring Training this year. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and he would miss the entire season, and like Cespedes, we cannot be sure when he can play in 2020.
That leaves the final piece of the trade – Luis Cessa.
Cessa was traded by the Tigers to the New York Yankees along with Chad Green for Justin Wilson. Green has emerged as a key piece to the Yankees bullpen, and Cessa finally carved out a real role in the Yankees bullpen for himself this year.
Cessa would make his first postseason appearance in Game 3 of the ALCS pitching two scoreless innings against the Houston Astros. That makes Cessa the lone part of that famed Cespedes trade who is not only in the postseason this year, but who actually played a game during the 2019 season.
In the end, the Mets thought they were getting a player who would lead them to their first World Series Championship since 1986. The Detroit Tigers thought they were getting a staff ace who would lead them to their first title since 1984. The Yankees were getting an arm with upside, and that arm who could contribute something in the future.
It’s just funny how that one overlooked pitcher is the one player from a noteworthy deal who is in this postseason. We’ll see how things play out from here.
During Sandy Alderson’s tenure as the Mets General Manager, he did quite well in the first round. Those first round picks included Brandon Nimmo, Michael Fulmer, Gavin Cecchini, Kevin Plawecki, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, Justin Dunn, Anthony Kay, David Peterson, and Jarred Kelenic.
All of the players drafted prior to 2015 have played at the Major League level. They are only one of eight franchises who can say all of their first round picks in that time span reached the Major League level. Of those six players drafted prior to 2015, five of them have established themselves as bona fide Major League players with the jury still being out on Cecchini, who is still just 25 years old.
Nimmo was the second best hitter in the National League last year. Conforto and Plawecki were a part of a pennant winner with Conforto hitting two homers in a World Series game. Conforto and Fulmer have already been named All Stars. So far, this group has a Rookie of the Year and two All-Star appearances.
Fulmer, Dunn, and Kelenic were moved for pieces which were traded to help improve the Major League club. While people have disagreements with the respective trades, the deals brought back Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz, each of whom are established All-Star caliber players.
Looking at the 10 first round draft picks, all but one of them have made some form of a top 100 prospect list since being drafted by the team. It may come as some surprise that includes Cecchini, who was named a KATOH Top 100 pick by Fangraphs, and Peterson, who was named a top 100 prospect by ESPN‘s Keith Law. In fact, the one who hasn’t is Kay, who right now appears on the cusp of getting named to a list on a midseason update or sometime next year.
Overall, the Mets have drafted talented players they have used to both build a strong core to the current Mets roster and to acquire players in the hopes of winning a World Series. With Kay and Peterson in Double-A, they can soon be part of the current core’s push to win the Mets first World Series since 1986.
That’s the legacy in front of Van Wagenen and Baty. For Van Wagenen, he has to show he has the ability to add talent to the organization the way Alderson did during his tenure as the General Manager. For Baty, he has to prove he can be every bit as talented as the players who came before him.
After the Mets home opener, Nelson Figueroa discussed how Noah Syndergaard has too much talent and ability than to need 11 pitches to strike out Yan Gomes. If you have watched the post-game over the past few years, this has been a common refrain with Figueroa, and it is something which has been espoused elsewhere.
Essentially, the gist is Syndergaard is not getting the most out of his talent, and as a result, he is not the dominant ace many expected him to be when he first burst onto the scene in 2015. By and large, this is an unfair characterization.
Just focusing on Thursday’s start, Syndergaard threw 98 pitches over six innings. He allowed just one hit with two walks while striking out six. If that were any other pitcher, even Mets ace Jacob deGrom, we would consider that to be a very good start, and there would not be any ensuing criticism.
If you dig deeper, you realize Syndergaard was even better than the numbers suggest. For those watching, it was obvious Syndergaard was getting squeezed by home plate umpire Pat Hodberg. He’s a notoriously bad home plate umpire.
In 2015, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina said of him, “He’s a young umpire, and he needs to figure out a better strike zone.” (Jennifer Lagosch, MLB.com). Apparently, things haven’t improved with Michael Fulmer said of Hodberg last year, “I made my fair share of mistakes, but there’s 10 calls about pitches inside the zone that he called balls. I let him know he missed 10.” (ESPN).
Going back and examining that second inning, Hodberg missed a number of calls
Noah Syndergaard's called balls and strikes through two at Citi Field pic.twitter.com/A7okNhm7hJ
— David Adler (@_dadler) April 4, 2019
Going deeper, Juan Soto led off the inning with a walk, but according to Gamecast, at least two of the called balls were strikes. Those types of umpire errors contribute to Syndergaard’s difficult inning and perceived under-performance.
All of that aside, Syndergaard was very good on Thursday as he has been throughout his Major League career.
Since his Major League debut in 2015, he leads all starters in average velocity. He has a 2.69 FIP, which is second in the Majors to just Clayton Kershaw. His HR/9 is second to just Lance McCullers. His 2.97 ERA is fifth behind Kershaw, deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Madison Bumgarner. His K/BB ratio is sixth putting him behind Kershaw, Chris Sale, Josh Tomlin, Scherzer, and Corey Kluber.
Looking at his stats, the biggest knock you have against him is his fWAR since he was called up to the majors ranks just 15th. Considering there are 30 teams in baseball, this definitively shows Syndergaard pitches like an ace. Overall, when you break down his stats his name comes up among pitchers who have won Cy Young awards and who are widely regarded as aces.
As deGrom has shown since the beginning of the 2018 season, any pitcher has room for improvement, and that would certainly apply to Syndergaard. That said, by any measure Syndergaard is a great pitcher who should be celebrated instead of nitpicked after his starts.
Back in 2015, the Mets somehow held onto a Game 5 and series clinching win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite having nothing, Jacob deGrom kept the Dodgers to two runs over six innings. That was more than enough as Daniel Murphy took over that game in what was one of the truly great postseason games a player has ever had.
He’d double home the first run of the game in the first off Zack Greinke. On a fourth inning walk to Lucas Duda, Murphy went first to third against a shifted and lackadaisical Dodgers infield allowing him to score the tying run on a Travis d’Arnaud sacrifice fly.
The big blow came in the sixth when Murphy hit the go-ahead homer putting the Mets up 3-2.
After a scoreless sixth, it was Noah Syndergaard with a scoreless seventh followed by Jeurys Familia recording the six out save to send the Mets to the NLCS and eventually the World Series.
At the time, the Mets seemed to be the young team on the rise. In addition to deGrom, Syndergaard, and Familia, the team had Matt Harvey, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, and eventually Zack Wheeler again.
The team also had a highly rated farm system, albeit one they raided for this one with a myriad of trades including Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes.
In 2016, both teams returned to the postseason. The Mets captured the top Wild Card spot only to be shut out by Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. That year, the Dodgers would lose in the NLCS to the eventual World Series winning Chicago Cubs (two years later and that sentence still seems bizarre).
After that, the Mets have had consecutive losing seasons while the Dodgers have gone to back-to-back World Series. Why?
Well, for starters, the Dodgers build a deep team with a deep bench. They do not have top heavy rosters which crumble when there is one injury. For example, Clayton Kershaw has not thrown over 175.0 innings in a season since that NLDS, and yet, the Dodgers remain a great team.
Also, while the Mets are off purging the Murphys and Justin Turners of the world, the Dodgers are finding them. In addition to Turner, we have also seen Chris Taylor and Max Muncy figure things out in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are also not afraid to take risks or trust their young players. Gone from the 2015 team are Howie Kendrick, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Jimmy Rollins. Instead, the Dodgers have players like Cody Bellinger.
For the Mets part, well, Adrian Gonzalez was their Opening Day first baseman.
Mostly, the separation has been financial. The Dodgers ownership has been willing and motivated to keep this championship window as open as possible, and they have with the largest payroll in baseball.
Looking between the 2015 NLDS and 2018 NLCS, Turner, Joc Pederson, and Yasmani Grandal were the only players in both starting lineups. Pederson and Grandal are still under 30.
On the pitching front, Kershaw, Pedro Baez, Alex Wood, and Kenley Jansen were the only pitchers to pitch in both series.
The Dodgers are not just a financial juggernaut, but they are also a supremely well run organization. This is a complete opposite of what the Mets have been, and judging from their current GM search, will continue to be.
This is all why the Dodgers are competing for World Series while the Mets are once again also-rans.