Matt Harvey
The entire Jon Niese situation is just another unforced error in a series of unforced errors during the entire Mets season in how they have dealt with pitcher injuries.
It started with Matt Harvey. From the beginning of the season when he had his medical issues, there was something wrong with Harvey. However, even with his missing time due to it, he started on Opening Day. He struggled somewhat on Opening Day as he would most of the season. He consistently complained of issues with his mechanics, and on a few occasions, the Mets actually debated whether or not he should be sent down to the minors. Even with his velocity drop, the Mets pinned it on mechanics. As it would turn out, Harvey has thoracic outlet syndrome requiring him to have season ending surgery.
Next up was Steven Matz. Matz has bone spurs in his elbow that are very painful. Matz wanted to have the surgery, but the Mets talked him out of it. Instead, the Mets shot him up with painkillers before every start, and they put him on the mound. The Mets did this despite Matz not pitching anywhere near as well as he had been pitching before the bone spurs became an issue. When Matz finally did seem to turn things around, he went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain and rotator cuff irritation. For what it’s worth, it does not seem like he is going to miss the rest of the season. However, given how the Mets have handled him thus far, it is fair to question if this decision is predicated on trying to win as many games as possible or whether Matz really will be ready to return.
Finally, we are back at Niese, who the Mets brought back because they needed another arm with all of the other injuries the Mets had. When Niese faltered in the bullpen allowing six earned in an inning of relief work, the Mets moved him to the rotation believing starting would be better for him and his knee. They were of course wrong. Niese would only last four batters in his last start against the Cardinals before having to come out of the game. Now, he is going to have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He may very well be done for the season.
The Mets decision to start Niese taxed the bullpen as Mets relievers needed to go 8.2 innings in the game. Speaking of the bullpen, we again circle back at the Jim Henderson decision. Henderson is coming off two shoulder surgeries, and he did not pitch in the majors this year. A day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches in a game, Terry Collins went right back to him in a “must-win” April game. Henderson would have reduced velocity not just in that appearance, but also future appearances. He would eventually have to go on the disabled list with a right should impingement.
Judging from how Collins has used Erik Goeddel both this season, a pitcher who has had a series of arm issues, it appears the Mets have no intention of learning from past mistakes.
There is no doubt the Mets have had some bad luck on the injury front. Harvey’s thoracic outlet syndrome wasn’t caused by anything the team did, and bone spurs is a common issue for pitchers. There is no evidence to suggest the Mets did anything to cause Niese’s injury. So no, the injuries aren’t the Mets fault. The issue is how the Mets have handled those injuries. Instead of the Mets giving these players rest and putting them on the disabled list as a precaution like how the Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg, the Mets told them to go out there and continue pitching. It created the possibility that each and every single one of these pitchers could have been further injured.
So no, the Mets can’t be blamed for how each of these pitchers got injured. Rather, the Mets can be blamed for these pitchers might have had further injuries with how the Mets have handled them.
There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.
The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs. Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.
That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat.
Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace.
The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them.
The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record.
The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark.
Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title.
In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division.
Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.
Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card.
Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it.
The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
Back in 2007, the Mets collapsed in part due to a rash of pitcher injuries. Pedro Martinez missed most of the year following offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum. An injured Orlando Hernandez (El Duque) had to be moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen. With they myriad of injuries, Mike Pelfrey was put in the rotation before he was truly ready. Brian Lawrence made a few poor starts. With the walls crashing in on the Mets and the Phillies gaining on them, the Mets had to turn to Philip Humber.
Humber was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft. In his career, he never lived up to that billing. It could have been that he was damaged goods coming from Rice University, who is well known for abusing pitcher arms. He did have ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery before his major league debut. It could be that he was rushed through the system never being given proper time to develop. It could any single factor or any combination thereof. It could just be that he just wasn’t good enough to be a top line starting pitcher.
He certainly wasn’t on September 27, 2007. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, two walks, no strikeouts, and one home run allowed. Humber did his best to battle that night, but he either wasn’t ready or wasn’t capable of winning a big game like that. The only reason he didn’t take the loss was the Mets staked him to a 4-0 and a 6-2 lead. It would be his last game as a Met as he would be part of the Johan Santana trade. It was also the last day the Mets would have sole possession of first place as the loss would drop them to only one up in the division.
Like in 2007, the starting pitching is dropping like flies. Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and even Jon Niese have found themselves on the disabled list. Logan Verrett has served as this year’s Lawrence. Robert Gsellman serves as this year’s Pelfrey. However, Lugo isn’t quite this year’s Humber. They really have nothing in common.
Whereas Humber was a high draft pick, Lugo was a 34th round draft pick. While Humber was pushed through the minors without mastering a level, Lugo has performed at each and every level having to prove himself over and over again. During his career, Humber had trouble developing a real outpitch. Conversely, Lugo has a terrific curveball that has already fooled Anthony Rizzo, who is a terrific major league hitter. More importantly, the main difference between Humber and Lugo is Lugo has already had success as a pitcher for the Mets.
In nine appearances as a reliever, Lugo pitched 17.0 innings and had a 2.65 ERA. When injuries forced him to make an unexpected start, Lugo was better than anyone could have imagined. He was not only good, but he was efficient. When Lugo walked off the mound, he had pitched 6.2 innings allowing seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. At a minimum, Lugo has shown everyone he has the capability of being a good and reliable major league pitcher.
During this season, this Mets team has been compared to past Mets teams that have failed. Namely, they have been compared to the 1987, 2001, and 2007 teams. You can go up and down the line and compare different aspects of those teams to this current team. However, those comparisons need to stop with Lugo as everyone should have faith when Lugo steps on the mound.
Ahead of a huge three game set against the St. Louis Cardinals, the 61-61 New York Mets are at .500 and are 4.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. Even with a good series here, nothing is guaranteed as the Mets are one of four teams currently withing five games of the last Wild Card spot. Here is where they all stand:
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are currently the second Wild Card with a 66-57 record. The team is hot having gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Cardinals hot streak is surprising given the fact that they are without Matt Adams, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, Seth Maness, and Trevor Rosenthal. The current Cardinals streak is a testament to their depth, resiliency, and the managing ability of Mike Matheny. Either that or it is a random hot streak, and the Mets are in prime position to take them down.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are at 65-59 and are 1.5 games back of the Cardinals. Over their last 10 games, the Marlins are playing .500 ball. Worse yet for the team, they are starting to deal with some major injury problems. The team is most likely without Giancarlo Stanton and Wei-Yin Chen for the rest of the season. The team is currently without Adam Conley, and they have the prospect of having to shut down Jose Fernandez at some point in the season. Andrew Cashner was supposed to help alleviate some of these issues, but he has remained the same pitcher he was with the Padres. Offensively, first baseman Justin Bour has been on the disabled list for quite a while, but no one quite knows when he will return.
Over the course of the season, the Marlins have been a pleasant surprise (if you’re not a Mets fan). Ichiro Suzuki seems rejuvenated and got his 3,000 hit. Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds have changed the culture while helping young players like Christian Yelich reach their potential. However, now that they are no longer healthy, there is real doubt that they can stay in the race.
Pittsburgh Pirates
As we have seen with the Pirates the past few seasons, the Pirates a second half team. They are currently 62-59, three games back, and have a favorable schedule from here on out.
The Pirates are turning things around by turning over their rotation. They have traded away struggling and underperforming pieces in Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese and have replaced them with top prospect Jameson Taillon and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Nova seems to be the type of pitcher pitching coach Ray Searage thrives with, and it certainly hasn’t hurt him being reunited with his old catcher Francisco Cervelli.
Part of the reason the Pirates are in this position is not just their rotation, but it was also due to the struggles of Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is having a big second half. Coupled with Starling Marte‘s terrific season, and the Pirates suddenly have a potent lineup.
In the end, the big question is if the young Pirates rotation and a bullpen without Mark Melancon can continue a second half charge to claim the second Wild Card spot.
New York Mets
The Mets have been a mess since April. Most of their players were hurt, stopped hitting, or both. However, now, the team is healthy, or as healthy as they can possibly be. Seeing Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup reminds you of the difference maker he is in the Mets lineup, and it is a reminder of the type of run the Mets are capable of making. For that to happen, the Mets are going to need more of the same from Jacob deGrom, and they are going to need Noah Syndergaard to keep pitching the way he did yesterday. The Mets will also need their other pitchers to step up especially if Steven Matz is going to be out for the season like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are.
In the end, if the Mets are goign to run, they have to start with them taking the Cardinals down a few pegs in this three game set starting tomorrow. If the Mets are not able to at least win two out of three, it is going to be an even steeper hill to climb to make it back to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online.
On August 22, 1973, the Mets won their second game in a row to raise the Mets record to 57-67 leaving them 6.0 games out in the National League East behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.
From that point forward, the Mets would be the hottest team in baseball going 25-12 carrying them to an unlikely division championship. The Mets rode the hot streak to beat the Big Red Machine 3-2 in a best of five NLCS, and they came within a win of disrupting the Oakland A’s dynasty.
The popular story was the Mets were spurred by Tug McGraw screaming “Ya Gotta Believe!” after a M.Donald Grant “pep talk” in July. However, the truth is that team just got healthy at the right time, and when the team was at 100%, they were among the best teams in baseball.
During that year, the team was hampered by injuries. Jerry Grote, John Milner, Bud Harrelson, and Cleon Jones all missed significant time. Rusty Staub player through injuries all year. On top of that phenom Jon Matlack was having a down year a year removed from winning the Rookie of the Year Award. He was joined by Jerry Koosman in having a surprising down year. Willie Mays looked to be every bit of his 42 years of age. Young fill-ins like Don Hahn just were not producing. The Mets were forced to do anything they could do to improve the team like releasing dead weight like Jim Fregosi. About all that went right that season for the Mets was Tom Seaver; that and the fact that no one ran away with the division allowing the Mets to enter the postseason with an 82-79 record.
Isn’t that what this Mets season has been. With Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Adrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, we have seen this Mets team be hampered time and again by injuries. We have seen countless Mets play through injuries like Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz with their bone spurs. We’ve seen replacements like Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds not play up to snuff. Players like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto had surprising down years. About the only thing that has gone right for the Mets this year is the fact that Jacob deGrom has continued to pitch like an ace, and the fact that no one has ran away with the second Wild Card spot.
Maybe, just maybe, this is 1973 all over again. That 1973 team was much further back in both the standings and more teams to leapfrog in the standings. All they needed to do was to get healthy and to get hot. Right now, with Cespedes back and hitting home runs for the Mets again, this team is healthy, and they are on the verge of getting hot. If that happens, the Mets can very well take that second Wild Card spot and get into the postseason.
As we saw in 1973 as well as last year, with great Mets pitching, the Mets can beat anyone in the postseason. They can shock the world. Anything is possible so long as they get hot and get into the postseason.
Overall, if you want to excuse the Mets performance due to injuries, there’s merit to the argument. However, don’t let that excuse away Terry Collins’ and Sandy Alderson’s performance. They chose to go with players have established they can’t do it instead of giving other players a legitimate opportunity.
On the Fourth of July, Matt Harvey made his last start of the season. Despite Harvey’s understandably poor performance, he left behind a gaping hole in the rotation the Mets didn’t fill.
First, the Mets went with Logan Verrett. In seven starts, Verrett went 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA and a 1.541 WHIP while only averaging five innings per start. He then lost his job to “fan favorite” Jon Niese who had been demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates before being traded to the Mets. In his lone start, Niese pitched 4.2 innings allowing four hits, four earned, and two walks with six strikeouts.
Combined, Verrett and Niese were 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. Last night, Seth Lugo walked off the mound after 6.2 terrific innings having only allowed seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. He’d leave being two base runners that Jerry Blevins would allow to score.
When David Wright and Lucas Duda went down with season ending injuries, the Mets first turned to Eric Campbell who hit .159/.270/.222 with one double, one homer, and five RBI.
Next up was Matt Reynolds, who not only helped fill-in for Wright, but also provide some days off for Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. Reynolds hit .211/.231/.382 with seven doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI.
Next up was Ty Kelly. As an infielder, Kelly is hitting .227/.292/.364 with one homer and three RBI.
Combined, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kelly have hit .191/.264/.315 with eight doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI. These are the options the Mets went with while making excuses why T.J. Rivera shouldn’t be called-up to the majors. When Rivera finally fot his shot, he hit .355/.344/.419 with two doubles and three RBI in nine games.
So yes, injuries have impacted the Mets. However, who they chose to replace those injured players had a similar negative impact. The Mets would’ve been much better with a healthy Harvey, Wright, and Duda. It’s possible they would’ve been over .500 and in the Wild Card race if they had given Lugo and Rivera a shot earlier.
Commissioner Rob Manfred has recently announced that he is interested in introducing a pitch clock to Major League Baseball. The pitch clock was first introduced last year in the upper levels of the minors, and it appears the Commissioner is pleased with it’s progress.
The rule as stated is that a pitcher must starts his windup or motion within 20 seconds of having the ball while stepping on the pitching rubber. The rule has initiated in the minors to help speed the pace of play which has been the Commissioner’s focus since he took over for Bud Selig. The Commissioner has considered various routes including limiting the use of relievers. However, it appears the Commissioner is focusing upon the pitch clock as a means to improve the pace a play. It’s a bad idea that may lead to pitcher injuries.
According to a recent study from the Journal of Sports Science, there is a link between the amount of time a pitcher takes between pitches and arm injuries. The researchers, Michael Sonne and Peter Keir analyzed the amount of time between pitches and arm injuries, and from there, they were able to make the correlation. According to Sonne, “One of the risk factors that we typically look at with muscle fatigue and injury is the amount of time people have to recover from doing effort.” (Brendan Kennedy, The Star). When a pitcher experiences fatigue according to Sonne, “you essentially lose the ability to stabliize the (elbow) joint as they throw.” Overall, when looking at pitchers, Sonne states you need to look “at the duration of exposure to pitching, but also the duration of rest.”
To that end, the researchers have concluded that baseball’s proposed 20 second pitch clock is a bad idea. Sonne states, “If you put in this pitch clock it’s a very cut-and-dry way of reducing the amount of recovery time that a pitcher has.”Sonne and Keir concluded that the 20 second pitch clock would create muscle fatigue for pitchers who take longer than 20 seconds between pitches, and as a result, it would expose them to injury. It may not seem like a big deal, but as Sonne points out, “It seems like a small amount, but when a pitcher is throwing at maximum effort, every bit of muscle force matters.”
This proposed rule is a huge problem for the Mets young pitchers. As per Fangraphs, the young Mets starters have needed more than 20 seconds to throw a pitch
| Name | Team | Pace | Pitches |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 23.9 | 2,238 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 18.7 | 2,153 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 21.1 | 2,065 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 21.5 | 1,514 |
It should be noted that according to FiveThirtyEight, a pitcher’s pace is the one statistic that remains consistent each and every year. A pitchers ERA, WHIP, K/9, etc. will rise and fall each and every year, but pace is the one thing that remains largely unchanged. This means that Syndergaard’s, deGrom’s, and Harvey’s health would be at risk in the event that the 20 second pitch clock were implemented.
Keep in mind that Harvey, Matz, and deGrom have already had Tommy John surgery. Additionally, Harvey recently had surgery to remove a rib to help alleviate the symptoms from his thoracic outlet syndrome. While Syndergaard has not had Tommy John surgery, he has been dealing with bone spurs in his elbow. Syndergaard also throws the ball at a high velocity, has begun throwing a slider with much more frequency, and he is experiencing a large jump in his innings pitched from 2014. Adding a pitch clock will only further serve to create another possible avenue by which Syndergaard, and really all young pitchers, could injure themselves.
The pitch clock sounds good in theory as a faster pace of play will certainly be more enjoyable for the fans to watch. However, the pitch clock will be counterproductive if it prevents the best and most exciting pitchers from taking the mound. The best fix might be to instill the good habits in the minor leagues and hope they carry those good habits forward.