Matt Harvey

Studies Say Don’t Implement the 20 Second Pitch Clock

Commissioner Rob Manfred has recently announced that he is interested in introducing a pitch clock to Major League Baseball.  The pitch clock was first introduced last year in the upper levels of the minors, and it appears the Commissioner is pleased with it’s progress.

The rule as stated is that a pitcher must starts his windup or motion within 20 seconds of having the ball while stepping on the pitching rubber.  The rule has initiated in the minors to help speed the pace of play which has been the Commissioner’s focus since he took over for Bud Selig.  The Commissioner has considered various routes including limiting the use of relievers.  However, it appears the Commissioner is focusing upon the pitch clock as a means to improve the pace a play.  It’s a bad idea that may lead to pitcher injuries.

According to a recent study from the Journal of Sports Science, there is a link between the amount of time a pitcher takes between pitches and arm injuries.  The researchers, Michael Sonne and Peter Keir analyzed the amount of time between pitches and arm injuries, and from there, they were able to make the correlation.  According to Sonne, “One of the risk factors that we typically look at with muscle fatigue and injury is the amount of time people have to recover from doing effort.”  (Brendan Kennedy, The Star).  When a pitcher experiences fatigue according to Sonne, “you essentially lose the ability to stabliize the (elbow) joint as they throw.”  Overall, when looking at pitchers, Sonne states you need to look “at the duration of exposure to pitching, but also the duration of rest.”

To that end, the researchers have concluded that baseball’s proposed 20 second pitch clock is a bad idea.  Sonne states, “If you put in this pitch clock it’s a very cut-and-dry way of reducing the amount of recovery time that a pitcher has.”Sonne and Keir concluded that the 20 second pitch clock would create muscle fatigue for pitchers who take longer than 20 seconds between pitches, and as a result, it would expose them to injury.  It may not seem like a big deal, but as Sonne points out, “It seems like a small amount, but when a pitcher is throwing at maximum effort, every bit of muscle force matters.”

This proposed rule is a huge problem for the Mets young pitchers.  As per Fangraphs, the young Mets starters have needed more than 20 seconds to throw a pitch

Name Team Pace Pitches
Noah Syndergaard Mets 23.9 2,238
Steven Matz Mets 18.7 2,153
Jacob deGrom Mets 21.1 2,065
Matt Harvey Mets 21.5 1,514

 

It should be noted that according to FiveThirtyEight, a pitcher’s pace is the one statistic that remains consistent each and every year.  A pitchers ERA, WHIP, K/9, etc. will rise and fall each and every year, but pace is the one thing that remains largely unchanged.  This means that Syndergaard’s, deGrom’s, and Harvey’s health would be at risk in the event that the 20 second pitch clock were implemented.

Keep in mind that Harvey, Matz, and deGrom have already had Tommy John surgery.  Additionally, Harvey recently had surgery to remove a rib to help alleviate the symptoms from his thoracic outlet syndrome.  While Syndergaard has not had Tommy John surgery, he has been dealing with bone spurs in his elbow.  Syndergaard also throws the ball at a high velocity, has begun throwing a slider with much more frequency, and he is experiencing a large jump in his innings pitched from 2014.  Adding a pitch clock will only further serve to create another possible avenue by which Syndergaard, and really all young pitchers, could injure themselves.

The pitch clock sounds good in theory as a faster pace of play will certainly be more enjoyable for the fans to watch.  However, the pitch clock will be counterproductive if it prevents the best and most exciting pitchers from taking the mound.  The best fix might be to instill the good habits in the minor leagues and hope they carry those good habits forward.

Is the Mets Window Closing?

Right now, the Mets are four games out of a Wild Card spot, and they are desperately hoping with Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera coming off the disabled list this week that the team goes on a run that will bring them back into the postseason.  Whether or not that works, it is fair to ask if this is the Mets last chance to win the World Series.

The foundation of this team is its starting pitching.  Matt Harvey has gone from Opening Day starter to question mark with his season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome.  There is no telling how effective he will be if he is able to come back.

Zack Wheeler was supposed to be back by the All Star Break.  Now, it appears that he will miss his second consecutive season.  While rehabbing from the surgery, Wheeler has had to have a second surgery to deal with forearm irritation caused by stitches, sensory nerve irritation, and now a flexor strain.  He had been treated by Dr. Dave Altchek, and he sought a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews.  We are continuously assured there are no structural issues, and yet, time and again there is a new excuse why he can’t pitch.  At the end of the day, it does not matter if he is unable to pitch due to his elbow or for other reasons.  Who knows when he can return or how effective he will be when returning.

There are more question marks in the rotation.  Steven Matz has yet to have a healthy season in the majors.  Bartolo Colon will be 44 years old next year meaning there is no guarantee that he pitches beyond this year.  Even if he does, there is no guarantee he will be this effective.  Logan Verrett has shown he is not capable of being a member of the starting rotation.  Sean Gilmartin‘s season ended early with shoulder problems.  The Mets aren’t going to pick up Jon Niese‘s option, and even if they did bring him back, you should probably expect more of the same from him.

The Mets other options are Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, both of whom are probably not ready to start in the majors.  Even if they are, both realistically project to be middle to back of the rotation starters.  That certainly helps, but that also a huge drop off from someone like Harvey.

As if the starting pitching wasn’t a big enough issue, there is the issue of the Mets offense.

As we saw this year, you cannot rely upon David Wright at all.  The Mets have no internal options to replace his bat in the lineup.  Worse yet, there is a lack of very good options on the free agent market choices available even if the Mets were so inclined to add a bat.  Keep in mind, they may also have to replace Lucas Duda at first base.  In 2015, Duda had a disc issue.  This year, Duda will miss almost the entire season with a stress fracture in his back.  There is a very real chance that he is a non-tender candidate.  The Mets do not have a first base option in the minors who is on track to play in the majors next year, and again, the free agent market is less than promising.  That means James Loney can once again be the Mets best option, and as we have seen, he is not a terribly good everyday option.

This isn’t even the Mets biggest problem, not by a long shot.

Cespedes can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and he will easily become the best free agent available.  The narrative coming out of last offseason was how much Cespedes wanted to be a Met, and that is why he returned.  That’s the hope why he will stay.  However, it’s more narrative than fact.

The fact is Cespedes didn’t get a fair market value offer on the free agent market.  Judging from the free agent contracts handed out, teams placed a higher value on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.  The teams you would think would be interested in Cespedes gave the money to somebody else.  The Nationals were interested, but due to budgetary constraints, they only offered Cespedes a largely backloaded deal. It is possible that after another postseason berth, and Jonathan Papelbon‘s salary off the books, the Nationals could make another run at Cespedes in the offseason.  It is also possible that the Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and/or the Angels could emerge as suitors for Cespedes.  There’s always the phantom mystery team that could join the bidding.

It is certainly plausible the Mets get outbid from Cespedes, or they simply move on from him.  Keep in mind, there were rumblings all over that the Jay Bruce trade was made, in part, as insurance for Cespedes leaving in the offseason.  If that is the case, the Mets outfield will yet again be left without a true center fielder.

The main task may first fall to Curtis Granderson, who has struggled mightily this year and should not be counted on to rebound in 2017.  The Mets could go with a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo platoon in center, but that would leave no room for Michael Conforto to play everyday.

Speaking of Conforto, there is another major issue with this Mets team.  Both Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud have regressed this year.  Certainly, Conforto’s wrist and d’Arnaud’s shoulder are factors, but the fact remains, they have regressed.  Couple that with Kevin Plawecki not progressing at all, there is a major issue.  Either the Mets young talent is not as good as anticipated, or there are impediments at the major league level that is preventing them from reaching their full potential.  In order for the Mets to remain contenders, they will need their young players to step up.

Between the aforementioned free agent market and lack of major league ready prospects, the Mets only real hopes of improving the roster is on the trade front.  The problem there is the cupboard is getting bare.  The Mets have already moved big pieces in Michael Fulmer and Dilson Herrera.  They’re not willing to move Amed Rosario, and they are really unlikely to move Dominic Smith.  The Mets could move Nimmo, but that depletes from their depth for next season, and as we have seen, the Mets need all the depth they can get.

Keep in mind that over the past two seasons, the Mets have also moved Robert Whalen, Luis Cessa, John Gant, Akeel Morris, and Casey Meisner.  They lost Matthew Bowman and Dario Alvarez without getting anything in return.  Their departures leaves a gap of mid-tier prospects the Mets could move for upgrades.

Yes, the Mets can field a very competitive baseball team next year.  As long as you have pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, you are going to have a chance to compete.  With another year of Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia, it is a seven inning game for the Mets.  It’ll become a six inning game if Hansel Robles takes the next step.  But after that?

You’re counting on Neil Walker returning, which is not a guarantee.  You’re counting on Asdrubal Cabrera developing more range at shortstop while hitting better than .255/.308/.410.  He was a .249/.307/.405 hitter from 2013 – 2015.  You’re counting on Jose Reyes to hit better than his .250/.302/.466 and be healthy all of next year.  Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 while hitting in two of the best hitter’s parks last year.  You’re counting on Wilmer Flores being able to learn to hit righties.  You’re counting on the Mets not having to rely on the Eric Campbells and Ty Kellys on the world for prolonged stretches of time over the next season.  It’s all possible, but it’s not likely.

As things look right now, the Mets better start winning some ballgames and make a run because there is no guarantee that the Mets window to contend will remain open past this season.

The Stolen Bases Are Not Travis d’Arnaud’s Fault

The runner takes off from first, and Travis d’Arnaud pops out of the chute unleashing a throw to second base.  The throw isn’t even close as the runner swipes the bag easily.  Mets fans groan as it is yet another time d’Arnaud has failed to throw out the runner.  It happens all too often, and seemingly most of d’Arnaud’s throws to second are either off line or spiked in front of the base not giving Neil Walker or Asdrubal Cabrera a chance to put down the tag in time.  It should come as no surprise that d’Arnaud has only thrown out 22.6% of would be base stealers.  It should also come as no surprise that d’Arnaud has allowed the seventh most stolen bases in the majors despite a stint on the disabled list.

However, what may come as a surprise is that d’Arnaud is not really to blame at all for these woeful statistics.  It’s really the starting pitcher.  Here is a breakdown on how successful base stealers have been when each of the Mets starting pitchers are on the mound:

Pitcher SB CS Success Rate
Noah Syndergaard 40 4 90.91%
Bartolo Colon 7 6 53.85%
Jacob deGrom 3 3 50.00%
Steven Matz 20 6 76.92%
Matt Harvey 7 3 70.00%
Logan Verrett 3 5 37.50%

As you can see, teams run wild when Syndergaard and Matz are on the mound.  However, when Colon and deGrom are on the mound, teams tend to stay put, and when they do run, they are much less successful when attempting a stolen base.

These results are all the more surprising when you consider that Rene Rivera, who is generally regarded as a much better defensive catcher, has effectively become Syndergaard’s personal catcher.  Here is a breakdown of how successful Mets catchers are trying to throw out base stealers when Syndergaard is on the mound:

Catcher SB CS Success Rate
Travis d’Arnaud 12 1 92.31%
Kevin Plawecki 6 1 85.71%
Rene Rivera 22 2 91.67%

In reality, it doesn’t really matter who is back there, teams are going to run wild when Syndergaard is on the mound.  The catcher is always going to look bad trying to throw out base stealers when Syndergaard is on the mound.  We saw it again last night as the Diamondbacks were a perfect 4/4 in stolen base attempts.   It’s a big reason why Rivera is only throwing out 25.6% of base stealers this season.

It should also be noted that with veteran pitchers who actually hold on baserunners, d’Arnaud throws out more baserunners.  With Colon pitching, d’Arnaud throws out 37.5% of base stealers, and with deGrom on the mound, he has thrown out one of the three players who have attempted a stolen base with him behind the plate.

This isn’t to say d’Arnaud doesn’t have room to improve.  He can certainly work on winding up less on his throws, and he can work on making better throws to second.  However, at the end of the day, the base runners are running on the pitcher and not d’Arnaud’s arm.

Steven Matz’s Near No-Hitter Throws Padres for a Curve 

Regardless of the results what Steven Matz has been doing this season has been admirable. Matz knows he’s going to need surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow, and yet he still goes out there and pitches because his team needs him. 

With that said the results haven’t been pretty.  From June 7th until August 9th, Matz has gone 1-7 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.435 WHIP. That is a precipitous drop from the guy who started the year 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.030 WHIP. The main reason for the dip is he’s getting hit much harder. He’s gone from an 18% line drive rate with batters hitting .225/.272/.294 with four homers to a 28% line drive rate with batters hitting .297/.346/.475 with 10 homers. 

During his slump or whatever you want to call it, Matz has been without his main breaking pitch – the fabled Warthen slider. In the beginning of the year, he threw it 15% of the time. Beginning June 7th, he was only throwing it 8% of the time. 

In place of the change, Matz began throwing more changeups going from throwing it 9% of the time to throwing it 14% of the time. It’s not a wise move as opposing batters hit .340 against the pitch while slugging .630. He’s fooling no one with the changeup and the opposition has been teeing off on the pitch. 

Sunday, Matz effectively scrapped both his changeup and his slider focusing on his fastball and curveball. The result was a near no-hitter. 

Over 7.1 dazzling innings, Matz only allowed the one hit allowing no runs and two walks with eight strikeouts. It was his best start since May. It was a return to the Steven Matz everyone once believed would emerge to join Jacob deGromMatt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard as one of four aces atop the Mets staff. 

Matz did it, in part, because he threw a lot more curveballs. He threw 29% curves on Sunday after throwing it 14% of the time ro start the year. It was the right move as it’s arguably his second best pitch (after his abandoned slider). Matz limits batters to a .235 batting average with his curveball, which is the second lowest batting average allowed against any one of his pitches.

With the fastball and curveball working, the only player who would get a hit off of Matz would be Alex Rios‘ former teammate Alexei Ramirez.  Like Harvey, Matz wouldn’t get the no-hitter. Unlike Harvey, his teammates would score runs did him a get the win. 

Wilmer Flores and Neil Walker hit solo homers in the first two innings respectively off Padres left-hander Clayton Richard giving Matz and the Mets a 2-0 lead. 
In the eighth, the Mets actually scored some insurance runs. Jose Reyes led off the inning with a single. He’d steal second and move to third when Padres catcher Derek Norris threw it into center. Reyes then scored on a Jose Dominguez wild pitch.  All of this happened during Ty Kelly‘s at bat.  It was vintage Reyes. 

The rally continued after the Reyes one man show, and it culminated in a T.J. Rivera two out two RBI double scoring Kelly and Jay Bruce. It was the first extra base hit and RBI in Kelly’s young career. It made the score 5-0. 

The final score would be 5-1 after Gabriel Ynoa allowed a run in the ninth. On the bright side, the Mets are 2-0 in games Ynoa pitched. Speaking of which, the Mets have finally won two games in a row. 

Overall, the story was Matz. He had a magical afternoon, and he made an adjustment to allow him to pitch more effectively. 

Pennant Race: Thr Marlins beat the White Sox 5-4. The Nationals beat the Braves 9-1. Three Cardinals beat the Cubs 6-4.  The Pirates bested the Dodgers 11-4. 

Don’t Blame the Mets Injuries

For the second straight year, it appears that the Mets have been snakebitten.  They have lost Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright to season ending injuries.  It would be easy to blame injuries like these as well as the other injuries the Mets have had for the team underachieving this season.  There’s just one problem with that – the Mets have been amongst the healthiest teams in all of baseball.

According to Spotrac, the Mets rank 15th in the majors and 8th in the National League with the team having placed 13 players on the disabled list.  With those 13 players on the disabled list, the Mets have missed 549 player days, which ranks 23rd in the majors and 12th in the National League.

Now, there are some fair criticisms in pointing just to the disabled list figures.  First, as we have seen with the Mets handling of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets wait too long before putting a player on the disabled list.  Second, this list does not account for players like Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard who are pitching despite having bone spurs in their elbows which will have to be surgically removed in the offseason.  However, this point-of-view is a bit myopic when considering the injuries the Mets main competition for the two Wild Card spots have endured.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The 63-49 Dodgers currently have the top Wild Card spot by four games.  They have also put a major league leading 25 players on the disabled list while losing a major league leading 1,400 player days.

Brett Anderson was gone for the season before he threw a pitch, Hyun-Jin Ryu only made one start, and Alex Wood lasted just 10 starts.  That’s 3/5 of the Dodgers Opening Day rotation up in smoke.  On top of that, the Dodgers have lost important bullpen pieces in Yimi Garcia and Chin-hui Tsao.

The Dodgers have also been decimated in the outfield.  Valuable fourth outfielder and bench bat Andre Ethier was also gone before the season started.  He was needed more than usual considering the Dodgers finally released Carl Crawford, had to deal with Yasiel Puig not producing, and recently losing the pleasantly surprising Trayce Thompson in the outfield.

All of this pales in comparison to the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw to the disabled list.  Kershaw was once again dominating, was the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, and quite possibly an MVP candidate. With his back injury, no one can be quite sure when he will return.  There is no more damaging blow to any team in all of baseball than the Dodgers losing Kershaw.

And yet, the Dodgers keep winning games, and that is why they find themselves the current Wild Card leader.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have put one fewer player on the disabled list than the Mets, but they have also lost 174 more player days to the disabled list.  Like the Dodgers, they are also ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card Standings.

The biggest injury the Cardinals have had to deal with is their starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta.  Offseason surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb has limited him to 36 games this season.  When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. Initially, the Cardinals opted to go with Mets cast-off Ruben Tejada as Peralta’s short term replacment, but he was inffective and wounded up on the disabled list himself.  His replacement, Aledmys Diaz was having a terrific rookie season which led to him being named an All Start.  However, he is now on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in this thumb.

The Cardinals have also had a number of key position player injuries.  During the season, the Cardinals have placed Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham on the disabled list at points during the season.  This has left the team looking to find solutions at first base and center field during the season.

The Cardinals pitching staff has also been hit hard.  Lance Lynn went from a member of the rotation to losing the entire 2016 season to Tommy John surgery.  Closer Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness all year, and he has finally wound up on the disabled list.  One of his key set-up men, Jordan Walden, has yet to throw a pitch all season due to a shoulder strain and a lat injury.  The team also had to deal with losing key relievers from last season, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, for a stretch of time.  

Recently, they had Michael Wacha and Matt Holliday go down with what could be season ending injuries. 

Despite these injuries, the Cardinals are 2.5 games up on the Mets this season in the Wild Card standings.

National League East

It is interesting to note that the two teams the Mets are chasing in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals, are two of the healthiest teams in all of baseball.

For the Marlins part, it seems to be a combination of good luck and youth.  Seven of the eight Marlins everyday players are 28 and younger.  The two 28 year olds, Justin Bour (ankle sprain) and Dee Gordon (PED suspension) are the only players from the starting lineup to be placed on the disabled list this season.

Other than Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins pitching staff has been remarkably healthy.  Most importantly, Jose Fernandez has been the dominant starting pitcher he was always supposed to be.

The Nationals being so health is quite remarkable.  Each and every season, players like Daniel Murphy, Anthony RendonStephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman were usually good for at least one disabled list stint during the course of the season.  So far this year, Starsburg had a short stint on the disabled list, and Zimmerman just landed on the disabled list with a wrist contusion.

The reason why the Nationals are in a much better place injury wise is part luck, but it is mostly them doing things differently.  They created a larger and a multi disciplined medical team of experts to address injuries.  They have addressed each and every aspect of player preparation and health.  The result so far is a much healthier Nationals team both on and off the field.

The Nationals changing how they have approached injuries show how other teams have adapted and dealt with injuries better than the Mets – so have the other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots.  The Mets aren’t trailing in the Wild Card race due to their health.  In fact, they may still be in the race because the Dodgers and Cardinals have had to deal with more injuries than they have.

Its Time – The Mets Should Fire Terry Collins

Normally, you don’t fire someone until you have a viable replacement in place. It’s not the prudent course of action, and ultimately, you can make matters worse by acting off raw emotion to quickly fire someone. However, it’s time. The Mets need to move on from Terry Collins despite the lack of an obvious suitable replacement.

This isn’t said lightly. It was his ability to manage the clubhouse that kept the team together last summer until the Mets could make the trades to add Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Despite your impressions of his in-game management, Collins was the manager of a team that went to the World Series last year.

More than that, Collins appears to be a good man. He has written notes to Mets fans who are mourning the loss of a loved one. He stopped Spring Training practice so a young heart transplant survivor could meet his idols. Make no mistake, when you lose a human being of the caliber Collins is, your entire organization is worse off for it.

And yet, there comes a time when being a good person and past results need to be pushed aside. You need to focus on the job he’s doing and how he’s hurting the team.

This isn’t just about the Mets disappointing season thus far. You cannot pin a player underperforming on the manager alone even if Michael Conforto has regressed as the season progressed. Players certainly have to share in their responsibility as well. Furthermore, injuries have certainly played a part in this, and injuries cannot always be blamed on the manager.

It’s also not about Collins in-game management, which can be head-scratching at times. There are many factors at play to which we are not always privy. A player may feel under the weather or not ready to play in a game. Also, even if it may seem strange to people, a manager should be allowed to draw from 48 years of baseball experience to play a hunch every so often.

No, the reason why Collins needs to go is his decision making process and how it has hurt the team.

In April, there was his ill-advised decision to pitch Jim Henderson the day after he threw a career high 34 pitches. It was even worse when you consider Henderson is pitching in his first full season after having had his second shoulder surgery. Eventually, Henderson landed on the disabled list due to a shoulder impingement. Collins’ excuse for pitching Henderson was Henderson telling him before the game that “he felt great.

That signals that what was Collins’ greatest strength is also his biggest weakness. He puts too much trust in his players leading Collins to sometimes play players when they shouldn’t be playing.

It was the big issue with Game 5 of the World Series. He let Matt Harvey talk his way back into the ninth inning despite Collins belief that the Mets should go to Jeurys Familia in that spot. That moment wasn’t about whether anyone thought it was the right move to let Harvey stay in the game. It was about Collins thinking it wasn’t he right move and his letting the player control the situtation.

Speaking of Familia, Collins recently overworked him as well. Over a six day stretch from July 22nd to July 27th, Familia had worked in four games throwing 76 pitches. He was tiring, and in his last appearance, Familia finally blew his first save. The following game the Mets got seven innings from Jacob deGrom, and the rest of the bullpen was fairly rested and ready to go. Instead, Collins went back to Familia who would blow his second save in a row. Collins’ excuse? He was going to sit Familia until Familia approached him pre-game and told him he was ready, willing, and able to pitch.

With Henderson, Harvey, and Familia, it appears that Collins is losing control to the players. That seemed all the more apparent during the Cespedes golfing drama. The Mets star player and key to their entire lineup had been hobbled for over a month due to a quad injury, and yet he continued to golf everyday. That was news to Collins who said, “I didn’t know he played golf until you guys brought it up. Had it been bothering him then, he would’ve said something about it, but not a word.” (Ryan Hatch, NJ.com).

It is not fair to blame Collins for Cespedes’ injury. It also isn’t fair to blame Collins for Cespedes playing golf. However, your star player is injured, and his injury is severely hampering your team. Doesn’t a manager have an obligation to speak with Cespedes knowing he is an avid golfer that played golf throughout the postseason last year despite having a shoulder injury?

On it’s own the Cespedes golf situation would be overblown as well as the aforementioned pitching decisions. If that was the only issue, you could argue Collins should be permitted to stay on as manager. However, his decision making this past week was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

On August 5th, the Mets lost a game 4-3. The fourth and decisive run was set-up by a J.D. Martinez double. Upon replay, it appeared that Matt Reynolds had held the tag on Martinez appeared to came off the bag. Reynolds looked into the dugout, but there would be no challenge. Now, that’s not necessarily Collins’ fault as he is relying upon the advise of the replay adviser. However, it was important to denote this when setting the stage for what happened the following night.

The Mets trailed the Tigers 7-6 in the top of the ninth. Jay Bruce started a two out rally in the top of of the ninth, and he would try to score from second off a Travis d’Arnaud single. Martinez would throw him out at the plate, and the Mets just walked off the field without challenging the play to see if there was a missed tag or if Jarrod Saltalamacchia was illegally blocking the plate. Why? As Collins said himself, “Because I didn’t think about it — that’s why. Plain and simple.” (Ken Davidoff, New York Post).

The Mets literally lose the game without that challenge. They lost the night before, in part, because they failed to challenge a play where it appeared Martinez was out at second. Even with all of that, Collins still didn’t at least try to challenge the play to try to get the tying run home.

As if that wasn’t enough, there was the matter of why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t pinch running for Bruce in that spot. Collins didn’t choose Nimmo as a pinch runner because he simply doesn’t know which one of his players is faster:

When you cede decision making to the players, when you fail to do everything possible to win games, and when you don’t fully know the capabilities of every player on your roster, it is time to go.

Time to Make a Run

The Mets have not won back-t0-back games since over a month ago.  At that time, they have gone from three back in the division and leading the race for the second Wild Card.  They have seen Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Reyes go on the disabled list.  Matt Harvey had season ending surgery.  The Mets have seen themselves fall to nine back in the division.

Yet, the Mets are still in the thick of the Wild Card race.

After a much needed day off, the Mets begin a six game homestand against two of the worst teams in baseball in the Diamondbacks and the Padres.  After that the Mets begin a West Coast trip starting with the Diamondbacks.  These are nine extremely winnable games.  If the Mets are a playoff team, they will steamroll through the Diamondbacks and the Padres and take possession of the second Wild Card spot.

Even better, they should have some help coming soon.  Jim Henderson, Zack Wheeler, and Reyes are on rehab assignments in St. Lucie.  Adding these health players along with a Michael Conforto, who hit an opposite field home run yesterday, gives you some optimism in what has mostly been a frustrating season for both him and the team.

All that anger and frustration can go away over the next nine games against two bad baseball teams.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online 

It’s Time to Fire Terry Collins

Normally, you don’t fire someone until you have a viable replacement in place. It’s not the prudent course of action, and ultimately, you can make matters worse by acting off raw emotion to quickly fire someone. However, it’s time. The Mets need to move on from Terry Collins despite the lack of an obvious suitable replacement.

This isn’t said lightly. It was his ability to manage the clubhouse that kept the team together last summer until the Mets could make the trades to add Kelly JohnsonJuan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Despite your impressions of his in-game management, Collins was the manager of a team that went to the World Series last year.

More than that, Collins appears to be a good man. He has written notes to Mets fans who are mourning the loss of a loved one. He stopped Spring Training practice so a young heart transplant survivor could meet his idols. Make no mistake, when you lose a human being of the caliber Collins is, your entire organization is worse off for it.

And yet, there comes a time when being a good person and past results need to be pushed aside. You need to focus on the job he’s doing and how he’s hurting the team.

This isn’t just about the Mets disappointing season thus far.  You cannot pin a player underperforming on the manager alone even if Michael Conforto has regressed as the season progressed.  Players certainly have to share in their responsibility as well.  Furthermore, injuries have certainly played a part in this, and injuries cannot always be blamed on the manager.

It’s also not about Collins in-game management, which can be head-scratching at times.  There are many factors at play to which we are not always privy.  A player may feel under the weather or not ready to play in a game.  Also, even if it may seem strange to people, a manager should be allowed to draw from 48 years of baseball experience to play a hunch every so often.

No, the reason why Collins needs to go is his decision making process and how it has hurt the team.

In April, there was his ill-advised decision to pitch Jim Henderson the day after he threw a career high 34 pitches.  It was even worse when you consider Henderson is pitching in his first full season after having had his second shoulder surgery.  Eventually, Henderson landed on the disabled list due to a shoulder impingement.  Collins’ excuse for pitching Henderson was Henderson telling him before the game that “he felt great.

That signals that what was Collins’ greatest strength is also his biggest weakness.  He puts too much trust in his players leading Collins to sometimes play players when they shouldn’t be playing.

It was the big issue with Game 5 of the World Series.  He let Matt Harvey talk his way back into the ninth inning despite Collins belief that the Mets should go to Jeurys Familia in that spot.  That moment wasn’t about whether anyone thought it was the right move to let Harvey stay in the game.  It was about Collins thinking it wasn’t he right move and his letting the player control the situtation.

Speaking of Familia, Collins recently overworked him as well.  Over a six day stretch from July 22nd to July 27th, Familia had worked in four games throwing 76 pitches.  He was tiring, and in his last appearance, Familia finally blew his first save.  The following game the Mets got seven innings from Jacob deGrom, and the rest of the bullpen was fairly rested and ready to go.  Instead, Collins went back to Familia who would blow his second save in a row.  Collins’ excuse?  He was going to sit Familia until Familia approached him pre-game and told him he was ready, willing, and able to pitch.

With Henderson, Harvey, and Familia, it appears that Collins is losing control to the players.  That seemed all the more apparent during the Cespedes golfing drama.  The Mets star player and key to their entire lineup had been hobbled for over a month due to a quad injury, and yet he continued to golf everyday.  That was news to Collins who said, “I didn’t know he played golf until you guys brought it up. Had it been bothering him then, he would’ve said something about it, but not a word.”  (Ryan Hatch, NJ.com).

It is not fair to blame Collins for Cespedes’ injury.  It also isn’t fair to blame Collins for Cespedes playing golf.  However, your star player is injured, and his injury is severely hampering your team.  Doesn’t a manager have an obligation to speak with Cespedes knowing he is an avid golfer that played golf throughout the postseason last year despite having a shoulder injury?

On it’s own the Cespedes golf situation would be overblown as well as the aforementioned pitching decisions.  If that was the only issue, you could argue Collins should be permitted to stay on as manager.  However, his decision making this past week was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

On August 5th, the Mets lost a game 4-3.  The fourth and decisive run was set-up by a J.D. Martinez double.  Upon replay, it appeared that Matt Reynolds had held the tag on Martinez appeared to came off the bag.  Reynolds looked into the dugout, but there would be no challenge.  Now, that’s not necessarily Collins’ fault as he is relying upon the advise of the replay adviser.  However, it was important to denote this when setting the stage for what happened the following night.

The Mets trailed the Tigers 7-6 in the top of the ninth.  Jay Bruce started a two out rally in the top of of the ninth, and he would try to score from second off a Travis d’Arnaud single.  Martinez would throw him out at the plate, and the Mets just walked off the field without challenging the play to see if there was a missed tag or if Jarrod Saltalamacchia was illegally blocking the plate.  Why?  As Collins said himself, “Because I didn’t think about it — that’s why. Plain and simple.”  (Ken Davidoff, New York Post).

The Mets literally lose the game without that challenge.  They lost the night before, in part, because they failed to challenge a play where it appeared Martinez was out at second.  Even with all of that, Collins still didn’t at least try to challenge the play to try to get the tying run home.

As if that wasn’t enough, there was the matter of why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t pinch running for Bruce in that spot.  Collins didn’t choose Nimmo as a pinch runner because he simply doesn’t know which one of his players is faster:

When you cede decision making to the players, when you fail to do everything possible to win games, and when you don’t fully know the capabilities of every player on your roster, it is time to go.

Applying the “A Time to Kill Test” to Cespedes’ Golfing

In the movie, A Time to Kill, an all white jury in the deep South was set to convict Carl Lee Hailey, a black man, until his young white lawyer, Jake Brigance, stood before the jury of his peers and gave the closing argument of a lifetime:

What he did was absolutely brilliant.  He took the same exact story and presented it to the jury exactly how it happened to a group of people that know what happened.  The only thing he changed was the person.  Instead of it being Carl Lee Hailey’s daughter, it was a little girl that could very well be close to them.  Ultimately, that is what made the story hit home; that was what made them change their opinion.

Overall, the “A Time to Kill Test” is a good test to use whenever passing judgment on anything including how you feel about a player in a particular situation.

If you do not think it was a big deal that Yoenis Cespedes was playing golf with an injured quad, ask yourself would your opinion have changed if that was Matt Harvey?  If you had a problem with Cespedes playing golf, would you have had the same opinion if you discovered David Wright was the one playing golf or taking part in any other activity that would have hampered his injury?  Would it even matter if Jose Reyes or Asdrubal Cabrera were taking part in recreational activities that could have possibly had an effect on their ability to get back on the field from their perspective injuries?  Essentially, no matter what the situation, choose another player, preferably one on the other end of the spectrum, and see if your opinion would change.

Overall, from looking at things from that perspective, it would be fair to say Cespedes shouldn’t have been playing golf while he was injured as it could have prevented him from getting back on the field.  It would be fair to say his playing golf was ill advised because the possibility remained that he could have exacerbated the injury.

Sure, it is possible that your perspective may change if it was Harvey or Wright in the same situation, but that’s the issue.  If it was the same situation, your opinion on the matter shouldn’t change.

Cespedes Put Golf Before the Mets

Yesterday, Yoenis Cespedes began his day with a round of golf with Kevin Millar . . . 

. . . and he ended the day on the disabled list. 

By all reports, Cespedes has been playing golf each and every day since he’s been injured. 

Cespedes’ injury was painful enough to prevent him from flying out and participating in the All Star Game. It was so bad he told the Mets he could no longer play center field. It was so painful he would miss games. Overall, his quad injury would affect his ability to play baseball, but he would not let it interfere with him playing golf each and every day. 

Did the Mets botch this?  Sure, they always mishandle injuries. It’s why they talked Steven Matz out of getting surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. They also talked Juan Lagares out of surgery initially. The solution for Matt Harvey was him roughing it out without getting a full examination. They wouldn’t put a hobbled Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera immediately on the disabled list. There are more injuries they’ve mismanaged both this year and in the entire Ray Ramirez Error, sorry Era. 

The Cespedes situation is yet another example of the Mets mismanaging injuries. They could’ve out him on the disabled list at the All Star Break to minimize the amount of games he would miss. They could’ve told him not to play golf. 

However, they shouldn’t have to tell a 30 year old man making $27.5 million to rest his legs so he could return to the field as soon as possible. They shouldn’t have to tell him not to let down his teammates in the middle of a pennant race so he could hang out with Kevin Millar on the golf course. No, this is something Cespedes should just no. He either didn’t know, or he knew it and didn’t care.  

Cespedes showed a complete lack of self awareness saying he needed to stop playing for 10 days to get healthy:

It wasn’t clear from that statement if he meant golf or baseball. Given his actions over the past month, he probably meant baseball. 

Yes, the Mets mismanaged this injury like they mismanage all of their injuries. However, Cespedes prioritized his golf game over the game he is paid to play. Hopefully, Cespedes will refrain from playing golf these next 15 days to let him get back on the field. 

After a month of golf and his sporadic play, it’s difficult to be optimistic that Cespedes will now treat this injury seriously and put baseball first.