Matt Harvey

Trading Dilson Herrera Was a Bad Idea

Coming into the season, the Mets were high on Dilson Herrera, and they viewed him as the second baseman of the near future.  It is why the Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk, and they eschewed other long term free agent options to trade for Neil Walker who was a year away from free agency.  However, the Mets made it perfectly clear they were willing to forego Herrera as the second baseman of the future if the right player came along.  That is why the Mets doggedly pursued Ben Zobrist in the offseason.  For the right piece or for the right price, the Mets were going to move on from Herrera to make the team better.

It is just hard to believe that player was Jay Bruce.

There is a lot to like about Bruce.  He is a traditional slugger who is leading the league in RBI.  He has a very affordable team option.  He is insurance against Yoenis Cespedes missing an extended period of time this year, and quite possibly insurance against him leaving in free agency.  He also helps with a sluggish Mets offense and with the Mets inability to hit with runners for scoring position.  He is also more of the same.

This is a Mets team full of low OBP, high slugging outfielders – Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto.  With the exception of Cespedes, all of the Mets current outfield options are left-handed batters.  What this team doesn’t have is a center fielder.  Currently, the best defensive center fielder on the team is Alejandro De Aza.  While he is the team’s hottest hitter and best defender, it is hard to imagine he is going to be an everyday player while the team sits one of Granderson or Conforto everyday.  In sum, Bruce is a nice offensive upgrade, but he doesn’t solve the teams problems.  With that in mind, it seems like Herrera was a steep price to pay for someone that doesn’t solve what ails the team.

It’s also selling low on Herrera in what has been a tough year for him.  Herrera has gone from a .327/.382/.511 hitter to a .276/.327/.462 hitter in AAA this year.  He has had nagging shoulder issues, and he has fallen into some bad habits at the plate.  It has been the first time the 22 year old has struggled at the minor league level.  However, given the fact that he is still young for his level, and the fact that his struggles are closely associated with an injury, there is every reason to believe Herrera will rebound and become the All Star second baseman the Mets envisioned he would become.  That is a steep price to pay for a duplicative player that does not solve the Mets problems.

We are just seeing it now with Michael Fulmer in Detroit.  Fulmer was the big time prospect the Mets traded last year.  He is the leading Rookie of the Year contender, and he is certainly in the Cy Young conversation with him going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP.  With each and every dominant start, it is a stark reminder how much the Mets need him this year with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery and Zack Wheeler being well behind schedule to return to the rotation.  Overall, the idea behind trading Fulmer was to trade from depth to acquire a missing piece . . . a missing piece that was an imperfect fit.  As we see last year, the Mets supposed depth was an allusion.

Now, the Mets did trade from depth with Herrera.  Gavin Cecchini could move from shortstop to second, which now seems to be his destiny with the meteoric rise of Amed RosarioWilmer Flores could move over there next year.  The Mets could always re-sign Neil Walker or another free agent or make another trade.  Depending on David Wright‘s health, Jose Reyes could move from third to second.  There are any number of factors at play, but as we see again this year, the Mets can never have enough depth as this team seems more snakebitten than any other team in the majors.  With that in mind, the Mets are now less deep at second base, and they are quite possibly without their best second base option for next year.

The Mets traded away another big time prospect for another slugging corner outfielder.  Hopefully, Bruce will have a similar effect on the Mets as Cespedes did last year.  The Mets are going to need that type of performance to help them get back to the postseason.  They are going to need that type of performance to help Mets fans forget about the player they gave away in Herrera.

Jay Bruce Solves Some Problems While Exacerbating Others

Right now, if you were going to list what the Mets problems were, two things that would be discussed ad nauseaum would be the offense and hitting with runners in scoring position.  While it has not been discussed as frequently, Yoenis Cespedes‘ and Juan Lagares‘ injuries also make center field an issue for the Mets.

The Mets acquisition of Jay Bruce presumably solves the first two Mets problems while only further confounding the center field issue.

First, the offense.  There is no doubt that Jay Bruce is your classic left-handed slugger that should be hitting in an RBI position in your lineup.  This year Bruce is hitting .265/.316/.559 with 22 doubles, six triples, 25 homers, and a major league leading 80 RBI.  He also isn’t a Great American Ballpark creation as Bruce has hit better on the road.  In road games, Bruce has slashed .277/.318/.582.  More importantly to Mets fans, Bruce is hitting .360/.406/.719 with runners in scoring position.  Ideally, the Mets would bat him fifth in the lineup as Bruce has been hitting .290/.340/.603 from that spot in the order.

Still, there is some cause for concern with Bruce.  As we see with his stats, he is not nor has he ever been a great on base guy.  He is also a guy who is a platoon type of bat as he is hitting .250/.287/.491 off of lefties this year.  With that in mind, the Mets might have just added a player that is more of the same.

He is also coming off two straight seasons that saw him hit a combined .222/.288/.406 while averaging 22 homers and 76 RBI.  If his July, where he hit .218/.289/.529, is any indication, he might be becoming that type of player again.  Furthermore, Bruce has not hit well at all in Citi Field.  In 21 games, Bruce has hit .186/.275/.443 with five homers and 13 RBI.  Hopefully, some of that is a short sample size and some of that is Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.

Regardless, Bruce is an offensive upgrade for an injured and under-performing Mets team.  However, he is not a defensive upgrade for a team that needs a center field solution.

If reports are true, Bruce is being brought here to play right field rather than to play first base in place of James Loney.  That would shift Granderson from right to center.  As we saw in the one game Granderson played in center this year, there is a reason why he has not played center regularly since 2012.  The other issue is that while Granderson has had a down year defensively in right field, he has been much better than Bruce, who has posted a -11.5 UZR and a -13 DRS this past year.  Over the previous two seasons, Bruce has averaged a -5.2 UZR and a -1 DRS meaning he is worse this year than he has been over his career.

With Bruce’s struggles, Granderson’s inability to play center, and Yoenis Cespedes playing on one leg, this outfield should be reminiscent, if not worse, than the Cliff FloydRoger CedenoJeromy Burnitz outfield that was seen as an unmitigated disaster defensively.

The other issue is where does this leave Michael Conforto?  After everything that has happened this year, are the Mets really going to make him a bench player?  Is he going to platoon with another left-handed batter?  Does he move to first base?  Aren’t you now forced to send him down to AAA until September call-ups?  This really leaves your best young hitter and future of your team in a lurch.  With all that in mind, it is a very curious move, especially when there was no corresponding move to address any of the Mets other needs.

Overall, Bruce solves some of the Mets problems while exacerbating some others.  The best way to deal with all of these issues is for both he and his new teammates to just go out there and hit.

Mets July 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered June six back of the Nationals and a half a game ahead of the Marlins for the second Wild Card.  After a 13-13 month, which was their first month at or above .500 since April, the Mets find themselves 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They not only trail the Marlins in the NL East race, but they are 2.5 games behind them for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (D). It has been more of the same for d’Arnaud in July, and as such, the Mets were forced to inquire on Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline.  On the bright side, he began to hit for some power hitting two home runs.

Kevin Plawecki (F). Plawecki was sent down to AAA, and he began hitting like everyone else in the Pacific Coast League.  The jury is still out on him.

Rene Rivera (B+).  While his defense has dipped a bit, Rivera has been absolutely raking.  He has clearly benefitted from facing left-hand pitching.  Still, he’s here to be the defensive backup, and he hasn’t been as great as he has been in year’s past.

Lucas Duda (Inc). He missed the entire month with his back injuries, and no one knows when or if he will be able to return in 2016.

James Loney (B). Loney has continued to hit, but his power numbers have regressed to the mean.  He still can’t hit lefties a lick.  Furthermore, his defense hasn’t been great.  His error in the Rockies game helped lead to a loss.

Neil Walker (C).  He was actually hitting worse in June than he had been in May and June, which is saying something.  He was even briefly benched by Terry Collins.  Then he woke up in the Rockies series, and yesterday he hit a home run that just might turn his and the Mets season around.

David Wright (Inc.).  Wright is not going to play again in 2016 due to the neck surgery.

Asdrubal Cabrera (C). Cabrera started out hot to start the month, but he cooled off.  As a result, he put up similar numbers that he did in May and June.  On the bright side, he did break his 0-32 streak with runners in scoring position.  He had a nasty injury yesterday that threatens to end his season early.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers.  The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (Inc).  Reynolds only played in one game during the month before getting sent down to AAA.

Ty Kelly (Inc).  Kelly did not play in the majors during the month of July, and his 40 man roster spot appears tenuous.  If the Mets make a move for a position player, he will likely be the first to be removed from the roster.

Michael Conforto (C+)  After an initial hot streak when he came back up, he has cooled off, possibly in part to Terry Collins giving him inconsistent playing time again, and possibly in part to him having to learn center field and right field on the fly given Cespedes’ and Lagares’ injuries.  For what it’s worth, he has handled both defensive positions well.

Yoenis Cespedes (B+). While his power numbers have decreased with his injured quad, he has become more patient at the plate putting up a season high .392 OBP in July.  His power is still there with a .530 SLG; it’s just that those balls are doubles now instead of homers.  His injury has hurt the team as he can no longer play center.

Curtis Granderson (C-). Granderson had his second worst month of the season hitting .235/.337/.410, and he is not playing right field at the Gold Glove level he played it last year.

Juan Lagares (D). It turns out Lagares just couldn’t play through the torn ligament in his left thumb hitting .160/.263/.300.  He has shut it down, and he is going to get surgery to repair the problem.

Alejandro De Aza (A+). De Aza had an amazing month of July .300/.500/.531. As you can plainly see, he’s hitting everything including lefties.  It speaks a lot about both him and the Mets that he was their best offensive player during the month.

Brandon Nimmo (B-).  In 13 games, Nimmo was showed signs he could be a major league player in the near future in his two stints with the Mets.  Overall, he hit .229/.325/.314 with one huge home run.  For some reason, even with the gap in center field, Collins still refuses to let him play there.

Jose Reyes (C)  Reyes quickly acclimated to third defensively as he appeared to have been a very good defender at the position for years.  At the plate, he had some uncharacteristically good power numbers while struggling to get on base with a .239/.278/.493 batting line.  He has been unable to hit righties doing most of his damage against lefties.  He is currently on the disabled list with an intercostal strain, and it is unknown when he can return.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc). The Texas Rangers AAA castoff has played in only two games for the Mets going 1-4.

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey only made one start in July before the Mets finally discovered he has thoracic outlet syndrome which may explain the struggles he has had all year.  Harvey had season ending surgery, and he will hopefully return in 2017.

Jacob deGrom (B+).  In a month where the Mets needed someone to step up, degrom heeded the call posting a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA including his first shutout.  However, he did have a clunker against the Marlins who are now ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has lost some velocity and movement on his pitches since it was discovered he is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow.  For the month, he was a respectable 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA.  The main cause for concern is his walks have gone up.

Steven Matz (C-). Matz has been clearly bothered by the bone spurs, but he is starting to learn how to pitch effectively with him.  He rebounded from a terrible June to post a 1-4 record with a 3.19 ERA.

Bartolo Colon (D-). Aside from one good start in the second end of the double header against the Cardinals, Colon has had a miserable month with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP.

Logan Verrett (B-). Verrett was thrust into the starting rotation with the Harvey season ending injury.  He has performed well enough as a starter going 0-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.240 WHIP that the Mets did not feel compelled to go out and get a starter during the trade deadline or call up a pitcher like Gabriel Ynoa to take his place in the rotation.

Jeurys Familia (C-) Familia was walking a tightrope for a while with his struggling command, and he finally blew two saves in back-to-back appearances that were just devastating.

Addison Reed (A+).  In 13 innings, only five people reached base against him, and none of them scored.

Jim Henderson (Inc).  Henderson is still on the disabled list, and he suffered a leg injury during his rehab stint.  There is no telling when or if he will be able to return.

Hansel Robles (A+). When the Mets were looking for a veteran seventh inning reliever, Robles just went out there and took the job.  In 10 appearances he was 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA.

Jerry Blevins (A).  Aside from his last game when he had a minor hiccup, Blevins had a terrific July allowing just two hits and one earned run in 13 appearances.

Antonio Bastardo (F). Bastardo seemed to be slowly turning things around in non-pressure situtations.  However, as we saw Carlos Gonzalez launch one near the Shea Bridge, Bastardo cannot be relied upon in any game that is remotely close.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) Didn’t pitch in the majors in June as he’s been demoted to AA.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin is on the seven day disabled list with a shoulder injury.  There is no timetable for his return.

Erik Goeddel (F).  Goeddel really struggled in the month of July posting a 6.10 ERA in 11 appearances.

Seth Lugo (B) He was electric in this first three appearances even making Anthony Rizzo look silly by striking him out with a curveball that hit Rizzo’s foot.  He has been solid since then, but he has come back to earth a bit.  For the month, he has a 2.60 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.  He would be helped by getting regular work.

Terry Collins (F). While it could be argued he has been dealing with an injury plagued roster (he has), Collins still does not make sound decisions on a day-in and day-out basis.  For the man who said, the Mets couldn’t be in a position to both win-now and develop players like Conforto, he has managed to do neither.  He also seemingly alienated his players at the All Start Game.

Latest Mets Trade Rumors

With the trade deadline Monday, there are going to be a number of rumors involving the Mets as the Mets were very active in the trade market last year, and they are in the thick of the Wild Card race.  Now, with the Marlins making the first big deadline trade acquiring Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea, Fox Sports Jon Morosi believes it will get the ball rolling with a number of teams, like the Mets, making a number of deals.

The Jonathan Lucroy Sweepstakes

According to ESPN’s Jerry Krasnick, the Tigers are out on the Jonathan Lucroy Sweepstakes.  This might be one of the reasons the Brewers have re-engaged the Mets on Lucroy.  As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal’s Tom Haudricourt reported, the Brewers aren’t getting the offers they thought they would receive in exchange for Lucroy, and they also want to make sure they canvass the area to make sure they get the best possible return they can get for the catcher.

Lucroy would be a huge upgrade over what Travis d’Arnaud has provided the Mets this season.  So far this year, d’Arnaud is hitting .246/.299/.333 with five doubles, two homers, and 10 RBI.  Additionally, d’Arnaud has already had a stint on the disabled list.  Lucroy has been the second best catcher in baseball this season hitting .300/.361/.486 with 17 doubles, three triples, 13 homers, and 50 RBI.  It is not much of a surprise that the Brewers already rejected a straight up deal of Lucroy for d’Arnaud.  According to Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal, the Brewers informed the Mets that they want some high end prospects in addition to d’Arnaud in exchange for Lucroy.  In order to get those prospects, Haudricourt says the Brewers would consider bundling Lucroy with one or two of their coveted relievers, which include Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith.

The Mets will have to get creative as, according to ESPN’s Adam Rubin, the Mets do not anticipate either Amed Rosario or Dominic Smith.  Further complicating matters is, as MMO and Mets Minors own Michael Mayer reports, Dilson Herrera has been dealing with a sore shoulder causing him to miss the last four games.

Trade With the Tampa Bay Rays

According to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, the Rays will trade Steve Pearce prior to the trade deadline, and it appears that Matt Moore is the pitcher they will most likely be willing to trade.

According to Crasnick, the Mets are very interested in Rays’ Steve Pearce.  In his career, Pearce has predominantly played first base and outfield.  However, the Rays have not played him in the outfield this year.  Instead, he has played mostly first base with some time at second, third, an DH.

Pearce would certainly fulfill a need for the Mets as he is hitting .312/.384/.528 with 11 doubles, one triple, 10 homers, and 29 RBI on the year.  He has hit a respectable .288/.348/.452 against righties, but he is flat out mashing lefties hitting .377/.476/.736 against lefties.  The Mets could desperately use him given some of the splits we have seen with the Mets starters against lefties:

This does not even include Neil Walker who is hitting lefties well this year, but is still a career .262/.320/.357 career hitter against lefties.  Given the injuries to Jose Reyes and Yoenis Cespedes as well as Juan Lagares again being put on the disabled list with the torn ligament in his left thumb, the Mets are going to have to play two or more of the aforementioned players against lefties.

The Mets could also have some interest in Matt Moore, who is 7-7 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP in 21 starts.  Moore would be an upgrade over Logan Verrett, and he could be insurance against Steven Matz and the bone spurs in his left elbow.

However, the chances of the Mets acquiring either player is not particularly good at the moment as the Rays intend to drive a hard bargain.  According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the Rays asked for Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto in exchange for Moore and Jake Odorizzi.

Relief Help

The Mets were earlier linked briefly to Jon Niese given Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery.  However, it does not appear as if those talks have gotten anywhere beyond the preliminary stages at this point.  Now, the struggling Niese is in the bullpen alongside Pirates closer Mark Melancon. Melancon is having another strong year as the Pirates closer going 1-1 with a 1.51 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP while recording 30 saves.

According to Rosenthal, the Nationals have been in active trade discussion with the Pirates about Melancon after Jonathan Papelbon has had a rough stretch to the season.  Rosenthal further reports trading the pending free agent Melancon would not signal the team is waiving the white flag.  Instead, the Pirates remain active on the trade market themselves, and they intend to replace Melancon with either Tony Watson or former Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz.

Frankly, it wouldn’t be a trade deadline unless the Nationals were trying to displace their closer.   According to Rosenthal, the Nationals are also in on Royals closer Wade Davis, who is having another great year recording 21 saves while recording a 1.60 ERA and a 1.099 WHIP.

Neither Melancon nor Davis have been linked to the Mets.

The Final Cost

As we see with the ask for Lucroy, the prices are going to be steep at the trading deadline.  In reality, the only thing that helps the Mets chances there is the fact that the Mets are not on Lucroy’s no trade list.    Perhaps the most discouraging sign of all is Passan’s latest report that the Phillies could obtain three to four prospects in exchange for Jeremy Hellickson.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

Who Is the Real Travis d’Arnaud?

With the Mets having just taken two out of three from the Marlins and having gained a game on the Nationals this weekend, the pennant race is in full swing.  The Mets are within striking distance of the division and both Wild Card spots.  This is a team desperate to go back to the postseason and take that one step further and win the World Series.  In order to accomplish that goal, they have to pursue every avenue in an attempt to make the team better.  That could include Jonathan Lucory.

Over the weekend, the latest rumor in what should prove to be a week of crazy rumors was that the Mets were interested in trading Travis d’Arnaud straight up for Lucroy.  The Brewers understandably said no, as Lucroy is among the top three catchers in the sport, and he has an extremely reasonable $5.25 million option for his age 31 years season.  With his production and his contract, every team in baseball should be interested in him except the Giants who have Buster Posey.  Still, it is interesting to see the Mets engaged with the Brewers on a trade for Lucroy, when it is going to cost them d’Arnaud and a good to elite prospect.  Overall, this may say something about how the Mets feel about d’Arnaud.

Overall, it is hard to get a real feel on who the real d’Arnaud is.  Part of that is his injury history.  Part of that is his inconsistent play.

When d’Arnaud was first called up to the Mets, he struggled.  In his first 139 games which spanned across 2013 and 2014, d’Arnaud hit .233/.299/.384 with 25 doubles, three triples, 14 homers, and 46 RBI.  He was having the types of offensive struggles we have seen Kevin Plawecki have in similarly limited duty.  d’Arnaud had really struggled to start 2014 hitting .180/.271/.273 through 39 games.  He left the Mets no choice but to send him down to the minors.  In AAA, d’Arnaud got his head straight, and he came back a much better player for the end of the 2014 season.  He played in 69 games after getting recalled hitting .272/.319/.486 with 19 doubles, three triples, and 10 home runs with 32 RBI.  He seemed on his way to turning the corner.

That belief was only fortified in a strong 2015 campaign.  Although limited due to two injuries, d’Arnaud did hit well throughout the 2015 season hitting .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 41 RBI in 67 games.  If he was healthy, and that is always a big if with him, d’Arnaud was on pace to hit 28 doubles and 24 homers and 82 RBI if he was able to play in 134 games, which is a fair number of games to expect a healthy 26 year old catcher to play.  For what it’s worth, Lucroy has never hit more than 18 homers in a year, has averaged 22 doubles, and 82 RBI is his career high mark in his seven year career.  By the way, Lucroy plays in a great hitter’s park in Miller Park whereas d’Arnaud plays in Citi Field which still plays like a pitcher’s park even with the moved in outfield fences.  Simply put, it was fair to expect d’Arnaud to be every good as Lucroy this year.

It hasn’t happened that way.  So far this year, d’Arnaud is hitting .246/.302/.339 with five doubles, no triples, two homers, and 10 RBI.  He has missed 48 games with a shoulder injury.  It makes you question whether this meager production is related to his shoulder injury, his batting eighth in the lineup most nights, his new stance that has him wrapping his hands, or maybe just maybe, he’s not as good as we thought he was going to be.  It’s possible the 67 games he played last year was an outlier as the production he has put up in his other 173 major league games are more in tune with the the production he has had this year.

Personally, I believe he is the player we saw last year.  He is the catcher who is an excellent pitch framer that handles a very good starting staff very well.  He is a guy with good power at the position who can be a difference maker in the lineup.  You don’t want to move a piece like that especially when that player is under team control until 2020.  It’s one thing to do everything you can do to win a World Series.  It’s another thing to trade a player like d’Arnaud who should have similar, if not better, production to Lucroy and give away a big asset along with him.

And yet, d’Arnaud isn’t the player he was supposed to be.  Given the fact that the Mets pitchers are starting to reach arbitration now and free agency is just on the horizon, the window is now open even with the Matt Harvey injury. The Mets can ill afford to punt a year away when they are in contention.  With that in mind, is it fair to the team and the fans to sit around and wait to find out what d’Arnaud is when there’s a player like Lucroy available who can help you win this year and the next?

It’s not an easy answer especially when that other piece that would be traded along with d’Arnaud could be moved for another piece that could be a much bigger upgrade than what Lucroy would be over what d’Arnaud may be perceived to be.  Either way, it’s telling that the Mets are at least considering the swap.  At a minimum, it tells you they believe d’Arnaud is not as good as Lucroy.  It may also be telling you that they don’t believe d’Arnaud will ever reach his full potential.

 

Potential Starting Pitching Targets

With Steven Matz taking the loss last night, he fell to 0-4 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.475 ERA over his last seven starts. In those seven starts, he has been spotted rubbing his elbow in the dugout between innnigsm and he has thrown his slider less frequently.  He has been clearly affected by the bone spurs in his elbow that need to eventually be surgically removed from his elbow.  Matz’s problems highlight the Mets rotation issues which also include Noah Syndergaard‘s dead arm scare, and Matt Harvey having season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrom.

The options to fill Harvey’s spot in the rotation leave much to be desired.  Logan Verrett currently has a 5.20 ERA as a starter this year.  Both Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin have pitched to an ERA over 6.00 for the past few months.  Zack Wheeler, who was initially slated to rejoin the rotation in the beginning of July, has had a number of setbacks and is still throwing bullpen sessions.  Best case scenario, Wheeler is back around mid-August.  That may be too long to wait given the Mets current hole in the rotation and the health issues the Mets other starters are currently experiencing.  Strange as it may sound, the Mets are actually investigating the possibility of adding a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, including but not limited to Jon Niese.  Ideally, the Mets would look to add a back of the rotation starter who would hopefully not cost much in terms of prospects and who could eat up some valuable innings as the Mets continue fighting in this pennant race.  With that in mind, here are some possible trade targets:

Jon Niese – Niese is having a nightmare of a season with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP that got him banished to the bullpen.  Still, over his Mets career, he had a serviceable 3.91 ERA and a 1.361 WHIP while averaging six innings per start.  In the postseason last year, he was moved to the bullpen where he got many valuable outs.

The Rays

Matt Moore – Moore is not the same pitcher who was an All Star and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting.  After his 2014 Tommy John surgery, he has not been the same pitcher.  With this being his first full season back, he is 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.298 WHIP.  He is primarily a fastball-change up pitcher with a low to mid nineties fastball and a mid eighties change up.  Over the course of this season, he is averaging a little over six innings per game.  He still has some upside, and he has a $7 million team option and $2.5 million buyout for next year.

Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is 4-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.274 WHIP in 20 starts for the Rays this season.  Part of the issues with Odorizzi is he doesn’t go deep into games averaging under 5.2 innings per start, and the fact that he has a higher career ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average in the second half of the season.  The 26 year old is under team control until 2020.

Drew Smyly – Smyly is another member of an underachieving Rays pitching staff that could be moved at the trade deadline.  Smyly has been dealing with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, and he has opted not to have surgery.  He is now in the process of having the worst year of his career going 2-11 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.358 WHIP while averaging almost six innings per start.

Jeremy Hellickson – Unlike his former teammate Moore, Hellickson, the 2011 Rookie of the Year, never did undergo Tommy John surgery.  The 2017 free agent is putting together a solid season for the Phillies going 6-7 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP while averaging 5.2 innings per start.  These numbers stand to be his best in four years.

The Pending Free Agents

Tyler Chatwood – The 26 year old Chatwood is having a good season with an 8-5 record with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP while averaging six innings per start.  These numbers are all the more impressive when considering the fact that he pitches half of his games at Coors Field, and the fact that this is his first full season after having had Tommy John surgery in 2014.

Andrew Cashner – The pending free agent is having the worst year of this career going 407 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.478 WHIP averaging under five innings per start while pitching a majority of his games in Petco Park, which could be the best pitcher’s park in the majors.

Jorge De La Rosa – The 35 year old De La Rosa is approaching both free agency and the end of his career.  This year he is 6-6 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.573 WHIP while averaging five inning per start.  Surprisingly, he is even worse away from Coors Field going 2-4 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.778 WHIP.

The Angels

Jered Weaver – Once an ace for the Angels, Weaver has seemingly lost it this season.  He has gone from a guy who got guys out with guile, location, and a 90 MPH sinker to a guy who tops out at 84 MPH.  The result is an 8-7 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP.

Tim Lineceum – Weaver’s current Angels teammate has also gone from an ace to an also ran.  In his five starts for the Angels, he is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and a 2.070 WHIP.

Hector Santiago – Santiago is putting together another average season going 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.272 WHIP while averaging a little over five innings per start.  The 28 year old is scheduled to be a free agent after next season.

Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker is another Angel on a staff of mid to the back of the rotation starters.  This year, Shoemaker is 5-9 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.264 WHIP while averaging almost six innings per start.  He may be the player the Angels are least likely to move as he is under team control until 2021.

Overall, the trade options do not stand to be much better than the internal options.  This may be one of the reasons why the Mets are prioritizing adding pieces to the bullpen over adding another starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com 

Mets Potential Bullpen Targets

Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia have combined to hold the lead in 33 of 34 chances in which they have been given a lead in the eighth inning or later.  Jerry Blevins, the purported LOOGY, has actually held right-handed batters to a lower batting average while pitching to a 2.08 ERA.  Hansel Robles has been a veritable Swiss Army knife in the bullpen.  One day, he’s pitching 3.2 innings to help preserve the bullpen after a starter gets knocked out a game early.  The next, he’s coming into the game to get the Mets out of a no out bases loaded situation unscathed.  With these arms, the Mets have a dominating bullpen.

However, behind these arms is a question mark.  Jim Henderson has started to pitch well in his rehab assignment.  However, he has been a different pitcher since his ill advised April 13th appearance.  Seth Lugo has pitched six scoreless innings over three appearances.  However, each of these appearances were in low pressure situations, and Terry Collins does not appear to trust him enough to try him in a pressure situation.  Erik Goeddel entered the season with a 2.48 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 9.0 K/9, but he has struggled this year pitching to a 4.50 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and an 8.4 K/9.  There remains intriguing options in the minors like Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, and Paul Sewald.  Between this group, the Mets could piece together a fine bullpen.  However, as the Mets are in heat for playoff spot, they do not want to take any chances.

The Mets are even more committed to finding that one bullpen piece considering how the team now has some question marks in the rotation with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery, Steven Matz‘s bone spurs, and Noah Syndergaard‘s dead arm.  According to Marc Carig, the Mets lost out on Kevin Jepsen and believe the pricetag for Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress will be too high.  Further hampering the Mets pursuit are the trades the team has made over the past year and a half.  Still, they are looking to preferably add a reliever who can lock down the seventh inning thereby taking some stress off their starting pitchers.  With that in mind, here are some options the Mets could pursue:

Jeremy Jeffress – As noted the pricetag should be high as Jeffress has the Brewers closer has recorded 23 saves with a 2.35 ERA and a 3.39 WHIP.  He is also under team control until 2020.

John Axford – Axford has some ugly numbers this year with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.579 WHIP for the last place Oakland Athletics.  However, it should be noted that his velocity is still there and he still has the same bite on his curveball.  A new voice and a pennant race could rejuvenate him.  It should also be noted in the postseason, Axford has a 1.42 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and a 12.8 K/9.

Brad Hand – Like many relievers, Hand has seemingly figured things out in San Diego after having mostly struggled in his first five years with the Marlins.  He has a 2.94 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP this year as opposed to the 4.71 ERA and 1.424 WHIP he had with the Marlins.  Part of the reason for his success is his increased use of his slider which is a pitch that has generated a high percentage of swings and misses.  Hand does profile as the type of pitcher Dan Warthen has had success with during his tenure with the Mets.

Ryan Buchter – The 29 year old career minor leaguer and Sewell, New Jersey native has taken full advantage of his first read shot in the majors with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.098 WHIP, and a 12.5 K/9 in 44 appearances.  Like what Antonio Bastardo was supposed to be, he is a cross-over lefty.  Like his teammate Hand, he relies upon his fastball and slider to get outs.  However, unlike Hand, he throws it with greater velocity with a 94 MPH fastball and an 87 MPH slider.  Again, he is the type of pitcher that typically fairs well under Dan Warthen’s tutelage.

Chris Withrow – In his first season post-Tommy John, Withrow has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP in 33 appearances for the woeful Atlanta Braves.  He is a Mets kind of pitcher as he is a power pitcher out the bullpen that has a mid nineties fastball and a high eighties slider.  He may not come cheap as he is under team control until 2020, and the Braves consider him their future closer.

Tyler Clippard – The main thing that will prevent Clippard from becoming a Met is his contract.  He is in the first year of a two year $12.25 million contract that will pay him $6.15 million next year.  Further diminishing the chances of a reunion is the fact that Clippard is having a career worst season with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP.  Like with Axford, the much cheaper option, the Mets would be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.  Like with Jose Reyes, the Mets would be hoping he is energized by putting on a Mets uniform again.

Adding one or more of these players should improve the Mets bullpen.  Regardless of whether or not the team adds one of these pitchers, or somebody else all together, they need Familia, Reed, Blevins, and Robles to continue pitching well out of the pen.  They also need Bastardo to figure things out sooner rather than later as it is his struggles that are precipitating this bullpen search. 

Mets Most Popular Pitcher

Back in the 1980s, there was no doubt that Dwight Gooden was the most popular starting pitcher on the team.  There was just a different buzz when he was on the mound as opposed to when Ron Darling, Bob Ojeda, or Sid Fernandez took the mound.  The reason was that Gooden had unparalleled and electric stuff.  As a result, it seemed Gooden was always pitching before a sellout crowd at Shea.  It didn’t matter if it was a 10:00 A.M. game on a Monday against the Flushing Little League team, Shea Stadium would be sold out to see him pitch.  Without a doubt, Gooden was a fan favorite.

As we saw with Gooden, attendance is a good measure to determine who the Mets fans favorite pitcher is.  It is a measure which shows who the fans will pay to go see pitch.  So far this season, the Mets have played 46 home games drawing 1,582,503 fans, which averages out to 34,402 fans per game.  On average, Mets fans have paid to see Jacob deGrom over any other Mets pitcher this season:

Average Differential
deGrom 38,107 3,704
Syndergaard 35,582 1,180
Harvey 34,925 523
Colon 33,685 -717
Matz 30,240 -4,162

To be fair, there are a number of factors that drives attendance other than the night’s starting pitcher.  For example, fans are more apt to attend games over the weekend and on holidays (Memorial Day and the Fourth of July).  For the purposes of this analysis, weekend games are classified as Friday through Sunday games.  Over the course of the first 46 home games, the Mets have played 23 weekday games and 23 weekend and holiday games. In the Mets 23 home weekend and holiday games, the Mets have averaged 38,060 fans per game as opposed to 30,745 fans during the Mets 23 weekday games.  Looking at weekend games, deGrom is still the pitcher that Mets fans are more likely to pay to see pitch:

Average Differential
deGrom 41,248 3,188
Syndergaard 38,529 469
Harvey 36,536 -1,524
Colon 36,297 -1,763
Matz 35,979 -2,081

With weekday games, the ones that take a little more effort to attend, we begin to see a shift away from deGrom.  In fact, fans have come out to see Matt Harvey more than any other pitcher on weekday games:

Average Differential
Harvey 32,777 2,032
Syndergaard 32,635 1,890
Colon 31,944 1,199
deGrom 31,825 1,080
Matz 26,414 -4,332

There are other factors to keep into consideration as well.  For example, one driving force behind attendance has been the Mets games against some of the better teams in baseball.  In the Mets 30 home games against teams with a record over .500, the Mets average attendance is 35,415 per game.  As we have already seen in some of the above analyses, more fans come out to see deGrom pitch against the better teams in baseball than any other Mets starter:

Average Differential
deGrom 36,266 852
Harvey 36,086 671
Syndergaard 35,675 260
Colon 35,564 149
Matz 33,707 -1,708

If teams that are over .500 are going to be of interest, it should come as no surprise that the Mets home games agains their 2015 postseason opponents have also driven attendance.  In the Mets nine home games against their postseason rivals, the Mets average attendance has been 39,432.  It should be noted that Harvey has not pitched against any of those opponents, nor will he with his season ending surgery.  Furthermore, Steven Matz only made one start against such an opponent.  With those factors in place, the starting pitcher the Mets fans paid most to see in the rematch games was Bartolo Colon:

Average Differential
Colon 41,187 1,755
Matz 40,122 690
deGrom 38,828 -604
Syndergaard 37,850 -1,582

Astoundingly, the Mets attendance against their NL East opponents has been poor.  While the Mets have averaged 34,042 fans per game through the first 46 games of the season, they are only drawing an average of 33,044 fans for NL East opponents.  Much of that is attributable to how bad the Braves and Phillies are.  The Marlins aren’t exactly driving fans to the park either despite the Mets being in a Wild Card race with them.  With that in mind, the fans want to see deGrom pitch against NL East opponents more than any other pitcher:

Average Differential
deGrom 37,289 4,244
Harvey 34,931 1,887
Syndergaard 33,551 507
Matz 30,698 -2,346
Colon 30,653 -2,391

Looking at the attendance figures, the Mets have had 16 such games, and they are only drawing 32,504 fans per game.  With respect to the other subset of games, this is the group the fans want to see the least.  Generally speaking, there needs to be an incentive for the fans to go to the ballpark.  Looking at the attendance figures more in depth, deGrom taking the mound seems to be an incentive for the fans to go out and see the Mets play a bad baseball team:

Average Differential
deGrom 41,788 9,284
Syndergaard 35,212 2,708
Harvey 34,055 1,551
Colon 29,301 -3,203
Matz 25,039 -7,465

Weighing each of these factors, the attendance figures suggest that Jacob deGrom is the Mets fans favorite starting pitcher with Noah Syndergaard not too far behind. These numbers shouldn’t be that surprising as deGrom and Syndergaard have been the Mets two best pitchers all year, and will likely be the starters for Game One and Game Two of this year’s NLDS.

 

 

Mets May Be Intersted in Jon Niese

Last year, the Mets had released Kirk Nieuwenhuis after he had hit .079/.125/.132 with no homers and two RBI in 27 games. Nieuwenhuis would go to the Angels where he would be similarly ineffective causing them to release him. The Mets then jumped on the chance to bring him back due to injuries and the ineffective play of players like Darrell Ceciliani.

Now, a year later the Mets are facing a similar situation with Jon Niese. According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the Mets are internally debating whether or not the Mets should reunite with Niese. 

This move speaks more about the Mets options than Niese’s performance as Niese is 7-6 with a 5.13 ERA, 1.574 WHIP, 80 ERA+, and a 5.49 FIP. He’s performed so poorly he recently lost his spot in the rotation and caused his General Manager Neil Huntington to quip, “In hindsight, maybe two fringe prospects [in exchange for Neil Walker] and trying to figure out how to reallocate the money might have been a better return.”  Even with all this is mind, the Mets are still deliberating over whether they should bring back Niese to take Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation.  

He is a consideration as Logan Verrett is 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.649 WHIP as a starter this year. Sean Gilmartin has had a 6.17 ERA and a 1.447 WHIP in his last 10 starts with one relief appearance. Gabriel Ynoa has a 6.65 ERA and a 1.630 WHIP in his last eight starts. 

As for now, the Mets plan on starting Verrett tonight against the Phillies. Furthermore, the team intends to prioritize pursuing a right-handed reliever who can pitch the seventh inning before turning their sights onto Niese. 

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com

Mets Control Their Own Destiny

After heading into the All Star Break losing three straight to the Nationals and falling six games back in the division, many Mets fans were left in despair.  Those feelings were only exacerbated by Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery, Noah Syndergaard leaving a game with a dead arm, and having Yoenis Cespedes go on the shelf with an injured right quadriceps.  It was a first half in which the Mets under-performed and suffered many injuries.  Still, what is lost in all of that is the fact that the Mets are currently tied with the Miami Marlins for the second Wild Card spot.  Even with everything having gone wrong, this is still a playoff caliber team.

They are a playoff caliber team that is going to have their own fate in their own hands.

Right now, the Mets have 74 games left on the schedule.  The winning percentage of the teams currently remaining on the Mets schedule is a combined .486.  This includes 25 games against the Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and Minnesota Twins, who are the five worst teams in all of baseball heading into the All Star Break, and that is before these teams start trading off their better players heading towards the trade deadline.  These games make up about one-third of the Mets remaining schedule.  This is a great opportunity to make some headway in both the Wild Card and divisional races by beating up on the weaker teams in baseball.

The Mets will also have an opportunity to make some headway in the Wild Card race as well.  The Mets have 10 games remaining against the Miami Marlins and six games remaining against the St. Louis Cardinals.  If the Mets were to do well against these two opponents, they will be able to not only solidify their position as the Wild Card, but they will also be in a position to knock one of these two teams out of the Wild Card race.  Also, keep in mind the Wild Card leader, the Los Angeles Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw on the disabled list, and the Dodgers are not sure when he will be able to return.  The Dodgers are 37-38 in games not started by Clayton Kershaw.  If Kershaw remains out for an extended period of time, the Dodgers will fall out of the race.

Of the remaining 41 games, the Mets only have 16 additional games against teams that are currently over .500.  This includes tough teams like the Chicago Cubs, who the Mets most recently swept, and the San Francisco Giants, who the Mets have taken two of three games against so far this year.  Overall, the Mets biggest challenge is going to be the six games they have remaining against the Nationals.

The other 25 games not previously discussed is against teams .500 and under.  With so many games against average to bad baseball teams, the Mets second half schedule is very favorable.  With 16 games against Wild Card opponents and six games against the Nationals, the Mets are in a position to beat the teams they are competing against for the Wild Card and National League East.  Overall, the Mets could not ask for a better schedule to both win games and prove they are worthy of making the postseason.  The only thing left for the Mets to do is to win those games and return to the postseason.