Matt Harvey
One of the best things about being a parent is you get the opportunity to remedy the perceived wrongs from your childhood. No matter how small or childish they may seem, we all have ones that linger. One of my lingering issues was my parents not going out and getting the Halloween Pail Happy Meals when my brother and I were children.
You see the Mets winning the World Series wasn’t the only major event of October 1986. I’ve never confirmed this, but I’m pretty sure Mookie Wilson got one of these for his stepson and nephew Preston Wilson. Much like the Mets hopes of winning the World Series the following year, my hopes of getting a McDonald’s Halloween Pail were dashed in 1987. My chances of obtaining one in 1989 were as much as nonstarter as the Mets chances were that year. In 1990, Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter were closer to New York than I was to getting my Halloween Pail. In 1992, there were no hopes for me or the Mets. From there, the Halloween Pails all but disappeared.
That was up until last year when the Halloween Pails re-emerged. Despite Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard not being alive in 1986, these trio of arms led the Mets to the World Series in the same year the Halloween Pails returned. Never underestimate the power of the pails. Like the good Mets fan and father (or petulant child) that I am, I made sure to get all four of them for my son who really had no clue who the Minions were or why he needed four of these pails. That changes this year.
My son loves Peanuts. He has loved them since we took him to see The Peanuts Movie, his first ever movie, for his birthday last year, and since he saw A Charlie Brown Christmas last year. Like any child, he loves Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and the whole Peanuts gang:
With that, we have now found the intersection where my son’s love of Peanuts and my need to get these Halloween Pails have met in the parenting Venn diagram. With that, I have checked one thing off my parenting bucket list, and I will now seek out curing other perceived wrongs like never getting the chance to attend a Mets World Series victory parade. I guess that one will just have to wait until next year.
To ensure that will happen, I think McDonalds will need to roll out an Avengers Halloween Pail featuring Thor, Captain America (David Wright), Iron Man (Steven Matz), and The Incredible Hulk (Lucas Duda).
By the way, the Great Pumpkin is on tonight:
It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown airs tonight on @ABCNetwork at 8/7c! pic.twitter.com/e9UOr3mua6
— PEANUTS (@Snoopy) October 19, 2016
Did you ever watch a compilation of the greatest moments in Major Leauge history? If you have, you usually come across Mookie Wilson‘s little roller up the first base line, and as a Mets fan it brings you a smile. If you’re a Red Sox fan, you cringe each and every time you see the ball roll through Bill Buckner‘s legs and watch a delirious Ray Knight cross home plate.
As I learned yesterday, the Mets now have their Buckner moment.
In Game Three of the ALDS between the Rangers and the Blue Jays, the score was tied 6-6 in the bottom of the 10th inning. The Blue Jays had runners at first and second with one out. Russell Martin hit a ball to the third base hole that seemed too slow to turn the double play. That didn’t deter Rougned Odor. After received the throw from Elvis Andrus, he made an offline throw to the first baseman Mitch Moreland, who was unable to handle the ball. While this was occurring reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, did not stop running. He rounded third and headed home. By the time Moreland would pick the ball up and throw home, it was too late. It was just a brutal way for the Rangers to lose the ALDS.
Sure enough, everyone started comparing Donaldson to Eric Hosmer. MLB even did a Vine comparing the two plays:
And now we know that every time a player hustles to make a play, invariably there is going to be a comparison to the infamous Lucas Duda throw home in Game Five of the 2015 World Series.
Duda deserves a better fate that this, as did Buckner. The Mets don’t go to the 2015 World Series without him. As we saw this past season, when Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, the team missed his presence in the lineup, and yes, the team missed his defense at first base. One throw doesn’t change what he has accomplished in his career, nor does it change how much the Mets need him back on the field in 2017.
However, that throw does define him. Years later, all people outside of New York will know about him is he is the guy that made the poor throw. Assuredly, someone is going to invariably blame him for blowing not just the game, but the entire World Series. It’ll be nonsense.
As we saw in 1986, it wasn’t just Buckner. It was Gary Carter, Kevin Mitchell, and Knight not willing to go down without a fight. It was Rich Gedman just missing a pitch, that was somehow ruled a Bob Stanley wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score. Furthermore, it was the Red Sox who blew a 3-0 lead in Game Seven of the World Series. Buckner’s error didn’t help things, but it wasn’t the reason why the Red Sox lost.
Last year, it was Terry Collins allowing Matt Harvey to talk him into pitching another inning. It was then Collins sticking with Harvey too long in that ninth inning before turning to Jeurys Familia. It was David Wright cutting in front of Wilmer Flores, to not only make a weak throw to get the out at first, but also to allow Hosmer to aggressively round an abandoned third base. It was also the Mets offense that didn’t score any runs in the bottom of the ninth or extra innings to lead to that loss.
Like Buckner, Duda didn’t help matters, and he will be forever blamed for the loss. Worse yet, people will forget two pretty good careers by letting their worst moments define them. They’ll have that opportunity because their respective errors will be replayed time and time again. In that sense, Duda has now become the Mets version of Buckner.
One thing that is strange about narratives is that they don’t stay static. Rather, narratives are dynamic and are often change wildly with a strong recency bias.
Last year, the narrative was the Mets blew Game 4 of the World Series because Terry Collins didn’t go to his closer to start the eighth inning. Instead, Collins brought in Tyler Clippard, who proceed to walk consecutive batters after retiring the first batter he faced. With runners on first and second with one out, Collins finally went to Jeurys Familia. Familia induced a ground ball that went under Daniel Murphy‘s glove loading the bases. Two singles later, the Mets 3-2 lead turned into a 5-3 deficit.
In Game 5, again Collins was blamed for the loss because he did not go to Familia. After eight absolutely brilliant innings, Collins allowed Matt Harvey to talk himself into pitching the ninth inning. After a leadoff walk and an RBI double, Collins brought in Familia to now protect a 2-1 with a runner in scoring position and no outs. Familia induced the groundout he needed for the second out. On the play, Eric Hosmer famously tried to score from second while Lucas Duda infamously threw the ball away.
With that, Familia technically blew saves in Games 4 and 5 of the World Series. The main reason why Familia blew these saves is his manager brought him into difficult situations and his defense abandoned him. Now, all of a sudden, the narrative has shifted to he’s a choke artist.
In the Wild Card Game, Familia took the loss. It started with a Brandon Crawford opposite field double to left-center. On the play, Yoenis Cespedes, perhaps due to his lingering quad injury, made no effort whatsoever to cut the ball off before it went all the way to the wall. Familia then struck out Angel Pagan, who had been attempting to bunt Crawford to third. Familia then had Joe Panik 2-2, but he couldn’t put him away. With Panik walking, there were runners on first and second with one out. Familia got a sinker up in the zone, and Conor Gillaspie hit a three run go-ahead homer. From there, Familia got out of the inning, but it was too late. After the third out, he was booed off the Citi Field mound.
That’s right. Mets fans booed one of the best closers in the game off the mound. Worse yet, the narrative became Familia can’t pitch the big one anymore.
That’s nonsense. In the World Series, if Murphy fields a ground ball, or Duda makes an even average throw home, Familia saves both of those games. For what it’s worth, Familia had only allowed one earned run in the 2015 postseason, and neither were in that game.
Furthermore, focusing on those games ignores the work he did to get the Mets to the World Series. In Game 1 of the NLDS, Familia came on in the eighth inning to bail out Clippard. Familia would have to go 1.1 innings to get the save. In the Game 5 clincher, Familia pitched the final two innings not allowing a baserunner to send the Mets to the NLCS. In Game 1 of the NLCS, he came on for Harvey, and he pitched the final 1.1 innings to earn the save. Between the NLDS and NLCS, Familia was a perfect 5/5 in save opportunities with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.414 WHIP. This run is conveniently ignore in discussing how clutch Familia is.
What is also ignored is the phenomenal work Familia has done since taking over and becoming the Mets closer. Yes, his work has been phenomenal.
Over the past three seasons, Familia has thrown more innings than any other reliever in baseball. Over the past two seasons, he leads all major league closers in appearances, innings pitched, games finished, saves, and multi-inning saves. Between the 2015 and 2016 seasons, he has made 154 appearances pitching 155.2 innings recording 94 saves with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP. The advanced stats also indicate he’s been great as he has had a 2.56 FIP and an 180 ERA+. In the 2016 regular season, he only allowed one home run.
During the 2015 season, when the Mets were not getting any offense due to a mixture of injuries and poor performances, the Mets bullpen had no margin for error. From the time David Wright got injured until the Mets acquired Cespedes at the trade deadline, Familia made 42 appearances pitching 45.2 innings. In that time frame, he recorded 24 saves with a 1.97 ERA and a 0.985 WHIP. Each and every one of those 24 games he saved was important as for much of the summer, the Mets season was on the brink of disaster. If not for Familia, who had been unexpectedly thrust into the role due to the injuries and suspension of Jenrry Mejia, the Mets may not have lasted in the NL East race.
All Familia would do for an encore this season was record the most saves by a Mets closer in a single season. His 51 saves would also stand as the single season record for a Dominican born pitcher. For a Mets team that tied with the Giants in the standings for the Wild Card. By the Mets winning the season series against the Giants, they had the right to host the Wild Card Game. In the three games he pitched against the Giants, Familia recorded two saves without allowing an earned run. Without Familia, the Mets play the Wild Card Game at AT&T Park.
The Mets also finished one game up on the St. Louis Cardinals, each and every single one of these saves were important. If Familia falters just one or two times more, the Mets miss the postseason.
Overall, if Familia is not the best closer in baseball, he’s in the conversation. He’s also more durable than the other closers, and as we have seen with his work throughout the 2015 and 2016 seasons, he is clutch. His defense failing him, and his making one bad pitch to Gillaspie doesn’t change that. It’s a given that he will be the Mets closer next season. And he should be, because if the Mets have any designs on getting back to the postseason, they are going to need Familia to repeat his successes from the 2015 and 2016 seasons.
Then in the 2017 season he can go out there and remind everyone just how clutch he is.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
For the first time in their history, the Mets can defend their pennant in the postseason. Better yet, the Mets get to defend their National League crown on their own turf.
The Mets are sending their ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Bear in mind, Syndergaard is not the ace by default. From the minute Syndergaard started throwing 95 MPH sliders to accompany his 100 MPH fastball, he was fast on his way to becoming the staff ace regardless of the injuries to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. In the 2016 season, Syndergaard led the major leauges in FIP while also allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings. He also finished .001 behind Max Scherzer for the best K/BB ratio in the National League. All told, even with the every other year narrative and Madison Bumgarner‘s postseason history, the Mets actually have the starting pitching advantage.
That advantage gets amplified when you consider the Giants just do not hit Syndergaard. As a team, the Giants are batting .170/.241/.226 with just one home run against Syndergaard. The Giants projected starting lineup is just 8-44 against Syndergaard with a home run and nine strikeouts. So long as Syndergard goes out there and pitches against the Giants batters like he has done in his short career, he is going to give the Mets every chance to beat Bumgarner and the Giants.
The Mets have a chance to beat Bumgarner too. The first three batters in the Mets lineup, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, have each hit Bumgarner well. Towards the bottom of the lineup, both Riveras, T.J. Rivera and Rene Rivera, have had success in the one game they have faced Bumgarner. This is a big reason why the Mets were able to score four runs off Bumgarner in just five innings. With Syndergaard on the mound, and Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to follow, the Mets are not going to need as many runs this go round against Bumgarner.
Speaking of the bullpen, there has been no better tandem to close out a game than Reed and Familia. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Giants blew the most saves in all of baseball. They came just short of the all-time single season blown saves record. The Giants still don’t know who their closer will be this postseason. If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Mets definitively have the better pen.
Tonight should be baseball at its best. You’re going to see two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of who have had success in the postseason, squaring off in a winner-take-all game. Given the Mets having home field, and the numbers at play, you have to like the Mets chances tonight.
Lets Go Mets!
This was a strange year in the National League Manager of the Year race. All the teams that were supposed to be contenders were actually contenders despite most of those teams suffering brutal injuries.
That Nationals lost Stephen Strasburg for a good part of the year and will likely not have him in the postseason. The Mets lost Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, David Wright, and Lucas Duda for a good portion of the season. At one point, the Dodgers entire starting projected rotation was on the disabled list with the most crushing blow being a Clayton Kershaw trip to the disabled list. The Cardinals have had their shortstops, Jhonny Peralta and Aledmys Diaz, on the disabled list with injuries, and they lost their closer Trevor Rosenthal. Even the Cubs suffered a huge injury with Kyle Schwarber going down with a torn ACL. With these teams overcoming those injuries, it could be quite difficult to determine who was actually the best manager in the National League this season. Taking all that into consideration, here is my ballot:
1st Place – Dave Roberts
A large part of his award goes to Roberts because of what he did despite his team being the most injured team in all of baseball. By the first week of the season, he lost two members of his starting rotation with Brett Anderson and Hyun-Jin Ryu. He would also lose important bullpen arms in Carlos Frias, Yimi Garcia, and Chris Hatcher for the year. He’d also deal with the most dramatic injury of all when Kershaw went down with a back injury.
When Kershaw made his last start before heading to the disabled list, the Dodgers were 41-36, eight games behind the Giants in the West and a game behind the Marlins for the second Wild Card. From that point forward, the Dodgers have the second best record in baseball. They have won the NL West for the second year in a row, and they seem poised to make a deep run in the postseason.
That’s not the only reason why Roberts is the Manager of the Year. He’s also capably handled a number of tricky situations that would have the potential to flummox other managers and potentially poison some clubhouses. He had to get Howie Kendrick to accept being a utility player and eventually an outfielder. He had to get one last great season out of Chase Utley. He would pull rookie Ross Stripling while he had a no-hitter going because it was the best thing for the young player’s career and the Dodgers’ future.
Clearly, Roberts has been unafraid to make the tough decisions. He had control of the clubhouse. He avoided near disaster, and he led his team from eight games back to win the NL West. That’s Manager of the Year material.
2nd – Joe Maddon
In reality, any other year this award would go to Maddon. Maddon has established himself as the best manager in the game.
Maddon was handed a roster that was easily a World Series favorite, and he delivered during the regular season. Not only did he get another great season from Jake Arrieta, but he also got better years from Jon Lester and John Lackey. By the way, somehow he got a Cy Young caliber season out of Kyle Hendricks.
We also saw Maddon play mad scientist like he loves to do. When Schwarber went down, Maddon took his budding superstar Kris Bryant and turned him into a Ben Zobrist type of player. It probably helped Bryant that he had the actual Zobrist on the team to give him some pointers. Additionally, never one to stay at the status quo, Maddon experimented using multiple relievers on the field.
On June 28th, Maddon would actually play Spencer Patton and Travis Wood in the outfield in a 15 inning game against the Reds. It actually worked out well for the Cubs. Patton started the 14th inning on the mound and Wood in left field. When Jay Bruce came up to bat, Maddon would switch them around to get Bruce out. After the Bruce at bat, Maddon switched them back so Patton could get Adam Duvall out. This was reminiscent of the 1986 game where Davey Johnson was forced to shift Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell between left field and the pitcher’s mound due to a Ray Knight ejection leaving the Mets without another position player. However, Maddon wasn’t forced into the decision. There wasn’t an injury or an ejection. Rather, Maddon did it because he simply believed it gave the Cubs the best chance to win the game.
That is the type of progressive thinking that has made Maddon the best manager in the game, and it has helped the Cubs to a 100 win season with the best record in baseball. If not for the terrific season Roberts had, Maddon would have won this quite easily.
3rd – Dusty Baker
Last year, the Nationals were done in by a toxic clubhouse and a terrible manager in Matt Williams. In the offseason, the Nationals did what they had to do in firing Williams, and then they had to settle on Baker as their manager.
Baker has always been a curious case. He has never been a favorite of the Sabermetrically inclined. He makes curious in-game decisions (hello Russ Ortiz), and he has a tendency to over rely on veterans over young players that are probably better and can do more to help the team win. Despite all of that, Baker has won wherever he has gone. He has brought the Giants, Cubs, Reds, and now the Nationals to the postseason. The reason is Baker is a manager that gets the most out of his players.
It wasn’t easy for him this year. Bryce Harper had a down year, Jonathan Papelbon wouldn’t last the season as either the closer or as a National, and Ben Revere would show he was not capable of being the center fielder for a good team. Worse yet, Strasburg went down with injury despite Baker actually being someone careful with his young pitcher. So how’d he do it. Well, he got career years from Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos. In a sign of growth, Baker trusted a young player in Trea Turner to not only play everyday, but also to play out of position. Mostly, Baker was Baker.
Overall, it is clear that Baker has some innate ability to get his teams to play well. He did that again this year in turning around a Nationals team that fell apart last year to a team that comfortably won the NL East.
Honorable Mention – Terry Collins
By no means did Collins have a strong year this year. You can point to the injuries, but he did do a lot to exacerbate them by playing players who he knew was injured. He had a year where he messed around with Michael Conforto‘s development and threatened the career of Jim Henderson by abusing his surgically repaired shoulder for a “must-win” game in April. Furthermore, he flat out abused the arms of Hansel Robles, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia. So no, Collins is not deserving of the award.
However, he is deserving of an honorable mention with the class and dignity he comported himself in the aftermath of Jose Fernandez‘s death. He made sure his team was there to console the Marlins, and he prepared his team to win games when some of his own players were devastated by Fernandez’s death. This was one of the many acts of kindness Collins has shown as the Mets manager, and it should be highlighted.
Tonight marks Seth Lugo‘s last start in what has been an already incredible season for him. More than any other pitcher in the Mets organization, it was unlikely that Lugo would find himself in this position.
After 14 starts and a 6.93 ERA for AAA Las Vegas, the Mets organization decided Lugo should not be a starting pitcher. It was certainly understandable. The Mets major league team was flush with young starting pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. Zack Wheeler was supposed to join them soon as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Mets needed a spot starter, there was Logan Verrett, who did the job quite admirably last year, and Sean Gilmartin, who pitched well in the majors last season. When you also consider the Mets had well regarded pitching prospects in Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, it was seemingly time to move Lugo to the bullpen. At 26 years old, it was probably his best chance to make it to the majors.
Lo and behold, that’s exactly how he would make it to the bigs. In his first major league appearance, he unleashed what was then the best curveball ever thrown in the Statcast Era. The pitch fooled Anthony Rizzo, a player who finished in the top four in MVP voting last year, is a three time All Star, and is hitting .305/.395/.579 with 23 homers and 72 RBI off right-handed pitching. Right then and there Lugo not only showed that his curveball may be the best pitch in the entire Mets system, but that he belongs in the major leagues.
Lugo would continue to show he was a major leauger in his next nine appearances. In those appearances, he pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP. In those appearances, he limited batters to a .185/.273/.222 batting line.
Then disaster struck – not to Lugo, but to the Mets starting rotation. With Lugo pitching well out of the bullpen, he soon found himself in the one place no one thought he was ever going to be. The starting rotation. In his first start, Lugo was much better than anyone ever imagined pitching 6.2 innings against the Giants. He was able to be economical with his pitches thereby allowing him to go deep into the game despite it being his first start in two months.
From there, Lugo has shown he belongs in the rotation. In Lugo’s seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP. When there are runners in scoring position, Lugo has shown the ability to bear down (some would call it luck) adding a few extra MPH to his fastball and relying a little more heavily on a curveball that generates both swings and misses as well as groundballs. As a result, batters are only hitting .163/.259/.233 off of him in those situations.
That’s where Lugo finds himself on his last start of the regular season. He’s taking the mound against the Marlins in the hopes of dropping the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots from four to three or two. He’s also making his case that he should pitch the Wild Card Game in the event Syndergaard has to pitch in the regular season finale on Sunday. He’s also making the case he should be the third starter over Gsellman this postseason.
He’s also making the case that he belongs in the long term plans of the New York Mets. He’s already done a terrific job of doing that so far. Another strong start here and a good postseason, it’ll be a guarantee.
When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran.
That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets.
With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets.
These underperforming veterans coupled with the Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters.
T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492.
Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI. In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch.
It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well.
When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery.
With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.
First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP.
He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP.
In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings.
Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot.