Matt Harvey

Is Now the Time to Extend Matt Harvey?

Back in 2014, Jaime Garcia had surgery to have a rib removed in order to alleviate his thoracic outlet syndrome.  He came back about a year after the surgery was performed, and he had a strong 2015 season going 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.049 WHIP in 20 starts.  So far this year, he has struggled a bit with a 7-6 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.363 WHIP in 19 starts.  On the whole, it would be fair to say Garcia is a success story for players who have had surgery to alleviate their thoracic outlet syndrome.

His former Cardinals teammate, Chris Carpenter, was not as lucky.  He would have the surgery in 2012, and he would never be able to return.  Now, there are a world of differences between Garcia and Carpenter, and this is probably too simplistic a conclusion, but overall the Cardinals franchise has had a 50% success rate in pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

Fact of the matter is, we still don’t know enough to know how a pitcher will return from the surgery.  For every Kenny Rogers, there is a Jeremy Bonderman.  There is the Garcias and the Matt Harrisons of the world who have returned to initially pitch well after the surgery only to see their future performance regress.  Overall, there are a lot of question marks about not only how successful the surgery is in restoring a pitcher to full health, but also what the lasting effects of the surgery is.  This is the point where Matt Harvey is right now.

With Harvey having the surgery, he missed the remainder of the 2016 season, but really he missed more.  Harvey wasn’t right throughout the 2016 season.  Accordingly, the Mets missed out on a real chance to challenge for the division, and for his part, Harvey missed out on his chance to build off of a strong 2015 season that culminated in his great Game 5 World Series start.  While the surgery was successful, and Harvey has been reportedly been long tossing and looks ready to start the 2017 season.  What Harvey will be in 2017 still remains a mystery.

In 2013, Harvey helped make the Mets a much more relevant franchise being a Cy Young contender and staring the All Star Game before his succumbing to a UCL tear requiring Tommy John surgery.  Last year, Harvey was part of a starting rotation that led the Mets to not only winning the National League East, but also the pennant.  The Mets are a better team with him in the rotation, and they will be a better team going forward with a healthy Harvey in the fold.  The question is not only if he will be healthy, but also for how long will he be effective?  These are the questions hanging over the heads of both Harvey and the Mets organization.

The Mets could let Harvey work his way back from the surgery and hopefully return to form ext year when he will be 28 years old.  From there, they could let him pitch for a year and a half before determining whether they want to open the pocketbooks to make Harvey the pitcher they want to extend.  It might be the prudent way to go.  However, it could also prove to be the expensive route as well.

Realistically speaking, there may be no better opportunity for the Mets to discuss an extension with Harvey.  Given his previous comments on the matter and the uncertainty of his future, Harvey may be more open to a contract extension now than he ever was or will ever be.  Scott Boras may not prove to be an impediment as evidenced by the Stephen Strasburg extension with the Washington Nationals.  There may be an opportunity here.

As we have seen, the strength of this Mets team is pitching.  When healthy, the rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz helps overcome the Mets offensive issues.  This is a rotation that helped the Mets go to the World Series last year.  However, this is a rotation that may ultimately need to be broken up as arbitration and free agency may prove too costly to keep them all together.  If you make a move on Harvey now, you would most likely get him at a discount thereby allowing you to allocate that money towards a deGrom or a Syndergaard.  With that in mind, the Mets may be best suited to rolling the dice and making a move to keep Harvey for the long term.

Mets Final Season Grades – Opening Day Rotation

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the sixth set of grades, here are the Mets Opening Day Rotation:

Matt Harvey D

By now, it is readily apparent Harvey never should have pitched in 2016.  First, there was the blood clots in his bladder that led to him having an abbreviated Spring Training.  Then, it was his complaining about his mechanics.  He just wasn’t himself on the mound, and the Mets began to have discussions about sending him down.  Harvey calmed those concerns a bit by carrying a no-hitter into the fifth against the White Sox.

Even with that start, there was something not quite right with Harvey.  As it turns out, he needed season ending surgery to remove a rib to address his thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS).  The TOS was the main culprit for Harvey going 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.468 WHIP.  With Harvey having the surgery, we can expect hi to get back to his dominant form instead of the struggling pitcher we saw in 2016.

Jacob deGrom B

Like Harvey, deGrom had some issues of his own.  He had an abbreviate Spring Training due to his newborn son’s health issues.  He had an oblique injury that robbed him of some velocity and movement.  Finally, he had to have season ending surgery himself to address a nerve irritation that was preventing him from pitching.

Ultimately, deGrom adapted to the reduced velocity and movement by locating, and he dominated in day games like he always has.  However, deGrom was not up for the big game like we saw from him.  That was prevalent in an August match-up against Madison Bumgarner that saw both pitchers fail to live up to the pitcher’s duel billing.  In reality, the nerve issue was too much for him towards the end of the season.

Still, it was a good season for deGrom.  It just wasn’t the one we expected from him after he emerged as the Mets ace in 2015.  Overall, deGrom made 24 starts going 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.203 WHIP.  He should be much better next season.

Noah Syndergaard A

During the second game of the season, Syndergaard showed off a 95 MPH slider.  With that he announced to the world, he was taking the next step forward in a season where he would emerge as the Mets ace.  He would also emerge as a Cy Young candidate.  Syndergaard might have won the Cy Young award too had it not been for the bone spurs he had to learn to pitch with during the middle of the season.

Dealing with the bone spurs was not the only challenges Syndergaard overcame.  He also had to address how he held runners on base.  Gradually throughout the season, and with some help with Rene Rivera behind the plate, he addressed that issue to the point where teams were no longer running at will against him.  He also had to adapt to being able to carry an injury plagued pitching staff.  One of the main things lost in the season was at the end of the year, Syndergaard was really all the Mets had left in the rotation.  He handled the pressure of not just being an ace, but also being the Mets best chance of winning games.  That was most prevalent when he threw seven shutout innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.

For the season, Syndergaard was 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP.  He was the league leader in FIP and home runs allowed per nine innings.  Lost in those numbers was a two home run game in Los Angeles and his getting thrown out of a game for throwing at Chase Utley.  It was an eventful year that saw Syndergaard take the next step.  It will be fascinating to see him improve even more next year.

Steven Matz C

Matz’s season was reminiscent of a scene in the the movie Major League.  Announcer Harry Doyle stated as Willie MaysBar Hayes stepped up to the plate that many say you can tell a lot about how a season is going to go based upon the team’s first at-bat of the season.  Well, if you judged by Matz’s first start of the season, you knew it was going to be a rough year for him.

In his first start, Matz couldn’t get out of the second inning after allowing seven runs to the Marlins.  To his credit, Matz would move past that start, and he would start putting together a season worthy of Rookie of the Year consideration.  In fact, by the end of May, Matz would lower his ERA from the gaudy 37.80 it was during his first start all the way down to 2.28.  It was around this time that Matz began dealing with bone spurs in his elbow that changed the way he pitched.

He couldn’t utilize his slider or breaking pitches as often as it caused him pain.  Accordingly, he was less effective on the mound, and he would pitch to a 4.21 ERA until August.  At that point, Matz just couldn’t do it physically anymore.  He needed season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur.  The surgery put an end to what was an uneven season from him.

Overall, Matz made 22 starts going 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP.  During the season, he did much to confirm people’s preconceived notions about him.  If you saw him as a possible future ace to join an elite rotation, you saw definitive glimpses of that.  If you saw him as an injury prone pitcher that will never put it together, you saw that as well.  Right now, it is difficult to glean exactly what Matz is and what he will be as a major leaguer.  The 2017 should go a long way on that front.

Bartolo Colon B+

Colon was supposed to be removed from the rotation by the All Star Break.  Instead, he was the only pitcher who didn’t need to skip a start this season.  With the Mets rotation getting decimated by injuries throughout the season, they needed a pitcher like Colon to go out there and not only eat innings, but also to be a reliable pitcher when he took the mound.  Colon responded by having his best year as a Met.

The innings was only part of the Colon story.  In April, he tied Pedro Martinez on the all-time wins list meaning he has won the second most games by a Dominican born pitcher.  Colon would then pass Pedro in May.  Also in May, Colon would actually hit a home run off of James Shields.  These are but a few of the highlights that also included Colon being the best defensive pitcher this season.  It was your typical Colon roller coaster ride that fans seemed to love with the exception being that he actually pitched well this season.

Overall, Colon made 33 starts and one relief appearance going 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.210 WHIP.  He led the majors with the fewest walks per nine innings.  It was the type of season that will help fans remember him fondly when he is pitching for the Braves next season.

Zack Wheeler Incomplete

At the Carlos Gomez trade fell through, Wheeler famously called Sandy Alderson and asked him not to trade him.  The rehabbing pitcher wanted to be a part of a Mets team that was poised to win again in 2016.  It didn’t happen as he did not throw one pitch for the Mets in 2016.

Wheeler’s rehab was plagued with setbacks.  First, he needed surgery to remove an undissolved stitch.  He then experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be an irritated nerve requiring a cortisone shot.  In August, he was finally able to start facing batters again, and he again experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be a strained flexor tendon.  With that his season was over before it ever began.

At this point, no one quite knows what to make of Wheeler.  He hasn’t pitched in two seasons, has had two surgeries, and has had a number of elbow issues.  While all indications are that he will be ready to start the 2017, we are at the point that we will believe it when we see it.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

It Was Time For Bartolo Colon To Go

For the past three years, Bartolo Colon has pitched relatively well for the New York Mets, and he has become a fan favorite.  This past season we saw what might have been his best attribute of all – his durability.  With the Mets having a young staff, veterans like Colon, especially durable ones, are worth their weight in gold.  That might be why Colon has been paid well during his Mets tenure.

With that said, there is some danger in keeping Colon around for another year or two.  Colon has become a soft tosser whose fastball averages 90 MPH.  It’s really important to note this because he throws his fastball an astounding 89% of the time.  As he ages and his fastball velocity drops even further, the greater likelihood he is going to get hit and hit hard.  It is not too dissimilar with what happened with another fanbase’s beloved soft tosser.

In 2006, the Phillies acquired Jamie Moyer to help their rotation, and to help them chase the New York Mets.  With the 44 year old Moyer in the rotation, the Phillies would catch the Mets in 2007.  That year, Moyer was 14-12 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.445 WHIP.  The following year, Moyer would not only help the Phillies win the National League East again, he would also help the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years.  It was also his best season in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.

In 33 starts, the 45 year old Moyer was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.329 WHIP.  He had a 117 ERA+, and he also averaged 83 MPH with his fastball.  Moyer would be a free agent after the 2008 season and a Phillies team basking in the glow of a World Series title, and a Phillies team putting too much stock in an outlier season from a 45 year old pitcher, gave Moyer a two year deal.  As it should have been expected, Moyer struggled in 2009 and 2010.  After that, Moyer’s Phillies career was over, and realistically speaking, Moyer’s major league career was basically over too.

This is the position the Mets are now with Colon.  After recording an 84 and 91 ERA+ in his first two seasons as a Met, Colon rebounded to have a 120 ERA+ in 2016.  Colon did it despite him losing some MPH off his fastball.  As with Moyer, the Mets are in a position to ask themselves whether the 2016 season was sustainable or an outlier.  Given Colon’s age and how hard he throws, the chances lie more with Colon’s 2016 season being an outlier than it is what can be expected of him in 2017 or beyond.

By all accounts, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz should be ready for Opening Day.  We know Noah Syndergaard will be ready to go.  Even if Zack Wheeler still needs more time, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo proved to the Mets that they not only can pitch in the major leagues, but also that they can pitch in a pennant race.

And with that, there may no longer be room for Colon on the Mets.  With that Colon decided to take a deal with the Atlanta Braves and join former Met R.A. Dickey in the rotation (it is not known if Josh Thole or Jerry Grote will be signed to catch them). Ultimately, that is a good thing.  It is a sign the Mets young aces are healthy, and it is a sign that the less experienced pitching is ready to contribute.

Many Mets fans will be disappointed in Colon’s leaving the Mets.  It is understandable as he was a fan favorite and good mentor for the young pitchers on the staff.  However, Colon was a 44 year old pitcher, and sooner or later, he is bound to have a precipitous fall-off not too dissimilar from what he saw with Moyer.  This was the right time to part ways, and in the games he doesn’t face the Mets, we should all wish him luck.  We should also hope this rotation is truly healthy and ready to withstand the rigors of the 2016 season without Colon going out and eating up all of those innings.

Mets 2017 First Base Options

One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was the production they received from first base.  The precipitous drop in production was a major factor in why the 2016 Mets scored fewer runs than the 2015 Mets.  Remember, the 2015 Mets once infamously had John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup.  With that in mind, getting improved production out of first base needs to be a priority for the Mets this offseason.  Here is what should be available for the Mets this offseason:

INTERNAL FIRST BASEMAN

Lucas Duda

Duda is exactly the player the Mets need to revive their offense in 2017.  From 2014-2015, Duda hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI.  He is a home run threat in the middle of your order, and he is the classic slugging first baseman.

The issue with Duda is no one knows if he is healthy.  In 2015, he went on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his lower back.  In 2016, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, and he took longer than expected to return from the injury.  While he tried admirably to try to play in the Wild Card Game, he just wasn’t ready.  For the season, he only played in 47 games hitting .229/.302/.412 with seven homers and 23 RBI.

While all indications are Duda is completely healthy, it is unknown whether he can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule.  It is also unknown whether he can return to form after suffering back injuries in consecutive seasons.  At the moment, it is anticipated he will earn approximately $7 million in arbitration.  For the production we know he is capable of producing, that is a steep bargain.  Not knowing if he can produce, $7 million could be an expensive gamble, especially in light of Wright’s situation.

Dominic Smith

Smith is coming off a terrific year in AA where he finally began to fulfill some of the offensive potential he has by hitting for more power in the second half of the season.  He is a a highly regarded prospect who is already a slick defender at first base.  Still, he is just 21 years old, and he has yet to have an at-bat above AAA.  He is not ready to be the Opening Day first baseman, and it is quite possible he may not be ready to play in the majors next year.

PLAYERS CHANGING POSITIONS

David Wright

Time and again, people state Wright should just move across the diamond and play first base.  Saying that presents a clear misunderstanding of the first base position and how taxing it would be on Wright.

Other than catcher, first base is the most demanding physical position for a player.  At first base, a player is constantly stretching, turning, and twisting in the hopes of getting a throw from one of his infielders that much quicker to turn a close play into an out.  With a runner on first, the first baseman has to spring off the bag and into his defensive position as the pitcher delivers the ball.  Like a third baseman, he charges the bunts and dives for balls down the line.  According to Dr. Walter P. Jacobsen, DO, a neurosurgeon, these activities that are high impact and require twisting are activities that should be avoided.  These activities are more prevalent at first than third base.

Even assuming this was incorrect, that Wright was better suited to first base, when is he going to get the opportunity to transition there?  Wright had season ending cervical fusion surgery, and presumably, he is going to need to spend most of his time in the offseason rehabbing and figuring out yet another pregame routine that will permit him to play in as many games as possible.  As such, there is no time for him to learn first base.

Jay Bruce

Without or without Cespedes’ return, the Mets are going to have a glut of everyday caliber outfielders, and one of them may need to find a new home.  That new home could be on another team or at another position.  With UZR and DRS rating Bruce was the Mets worst outfielder, he would be the likely candidate to move to first base.

The one caution is Bruce has only played three games there in his major league career, and all three of those games were two years ago.  Even accounting for that, Bruce may have the athleticism to adapt to first base and succeed there on the major league level.  It is also a way to keep him and his 30 home run caliber bat in the lineup every day while also allowing Curtis Granderson, another Mets right fielder who can hit 30 home runs, in the lineup everyday.

Still, before moving someone over to first base, Mike Piazza should always be a caution to Mets fans that not just anyone can move over there.  It is a difficult position that requires hard work in the offseason.  If this is the plan, the Mets need to implement it sooner rather than later.

Michael Conforto

None other than Keith Hernandez believes Conforto should be playing first base with him saying, “He more than likely is going to end up at first base, though it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than average there.”  (nj.com).  While it is far from a ringing endorsement, it is notable when Hernandez, the best defensive first baseman in major league history, states you should play his position.

For his part, Conforto is open to the possibility saying, “I took some reps in college over at first base just for emergency-type situations. I think that’s something that’s very, very interesting, something I’d be open to, obviously. I just want to help the team.”  (New York Post).

Moving Conforto there means you won’t have to displace a veteran like Bruce.  However, it does create a few problems.  First, choosing to move Conforto over Bruce also means choosing to move the better defensive outfielder out of the outfield.  Second, moving Conforto there could become a potential barrier to Smith or Peter Alonso at first base in the upcoming seasons.  Third, having Conforto change positions to the infield could be yet another obstacle in the young player’s development.

For a myriad of reasons ranging from a wrist injury to uneven playing time to him just falling into slumps like any other player, the 2016 season was a lost one for Conforto.  He went from the Mets top hitting prospect to a young player Terry Collins entrusted to little more than pinch hitting duty down the stretch.  It is quite possible the best thing for him is for the Mets to pick a position in the outfield and let him stay there and allow him to work with Kevin Long to get back to what worked well for him.

EXPENSIVE OPTIONS

Miguel Cabrera

Tigers GM Al Avila has already announced the Tigers are looking to get younger and shed some payroll this offseason.  With that in mind, the Tigers have a number of interesting trade candidates making big money like Cabrera.

At 33, Cabrera had another terrific season hitting .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI.  Should Cespedes depart this offseason, Cabrera would more than replace Cespedes in the lineup.  However, the Mets chances of obtaining Cabrera are unlikely due to the cost.  First, it is going to take a huge haul of players to obtain them, and in the past, the Mets have shown unwillingness to move one of their big pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Steven Matz.  Given Cabrera’s production, it is likely the Tigers ask for one of these players and/or a big prospect like Smith, Amed Rosario, or both.

Even if there was a middle ground on players the Mets deemed acceptable, it is hard to imagine them adding Cabrera’s contract.  Cabrera still has seven years $132 million left on his deal.  The contract carries through to his age 40 season, and there are two vesting options at the back end of the deal for $30 million a piece.  If Cabrera does not age well, this contract would become the type of albatross Sandy Alderson typically avoids.

Justin Turner

Bringing back Turner would be a page out of the Todd Zeile handbook.  While Turner has not played regularly at first base, he has shown the ability to play over there, and his bat may help the Mets improve in 2016.

Moreover, Turner may need to move to first base to lengthen his career.  Over the past few seasons, he has had knee issues, and he may not be well suited for the third base position in the time of the modern shift era that requires a third baseman to cover more ground than they did a decade or so ago.

There does remain some issues for Turner.  First and foremost is the aforementioned knee issues.  Second, Turner took off when he played in his hometown.  There is no telling if he would struggle playing on the east coast again.  Third, he regressed from an on base perspective this year.  In 2014 and 2015, Turner was a player who had a .384 on base percentage with a .492 slugging.  This year, Turner’s OBP dropped to .339 even while his slugging percentage stayed in the same vicinity (.493).  This might have been a product of his knee issues or it could have been a product of him swinging for the fences more as evidenced by his career high 27 homers.

In either event, Turner is not the safest choice, especially when you are asking him to play out of position.  These fears become magnified when you consider Turner will likely received a qualifying offer, and he will likely get a big contract offer from someone, including but not limited to the Dodgers, to play third base.

THE DESIGNATED HITTERS

Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion may prove to be the biggest power bat on the free agent market.  He is coming off a year that saw him hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 homers and a league leading 127 RBI.  Over the past three seasons, Encarnacion is hitting .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 homers and 112 RBI.

There are two issues with Encarnacion.  First, much of his stats have been generated as a result of him hitting in the Rogers Centre, which is a hitter’s park.  In his career, Encarnacion has hit .272/.360/.535 there.  Last year, on the road, Encarnaction was a .246/.342/.492 hitter on the road.  While it is a drop-off, the Mets would gladly take Encarnacion’s road production from their first base position next year.

Therein lies the real problem with Encarnacion.  He’s a DH.  Encarnacion has not played more than half a season at first base in his entire career.  In his last five years with the Blue Jays, he has split his time between first and DH.  While advanced metrics like UZR and DRS rate him to be an average first baseman, it is unknown whether he could withstand the rigors of playing in the field everyday.  Those concerns are amplified for a player that will turn 34 next year, will command a large contract, and will most likely recent a qualifying offer.

Carlos Santana

Seemingly, from the moment Santana came up to the Cleveland Indians as a catcher, the team has sought a position for him.  He has proven his best position is DH.

Santana is coming off a terrific year that saw him hit ..259/.366/.498 with 34 homers and 87 RBI.  Those were the highest home run and RBI totals of his career.  In his six full seasons with the Indians, Santana has averaged 24 homers and 81 RBI.  With his on base skills and his switch hitting ability, Santana would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup.  However, like Encarnacion, the real question is whether he can be an everyday first baseman.

Like Encarnaction, he rates as average when he does play there.  Unlike Encarnacion, he played almost a full season there in 2015.  Moreover, he is four years younger than Encarnacion.  So while both may receive qualifying offers and large contract offers on the free agent market, Santana may prove to be the better bet for the Mets should they look to upgrade the first base position in free agency.

QUESTIONABLE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

James Loney

The best thing you can say about Loney in 2016 was he was a definitive upgrade over the Mets internal options like Campbell.  Unfortunately, Loney showed little that would entice the Mets to bring him back next season.  Loney finished the year hitting .257/.287/.369 with five homers and 18 RBI in 63 games after the All Star Break.  He also showed he had limited range and an inability to stretch far for throws made to first.  While he was an improvement over what the Mets had in 2016, the Mets are simply going to have to do better than him in 2017.

Mike Napoli

The Cleveland Indians took a one year flier on Napoli this offseason, and it has been a boon for them as Napoli has been a major contributor for a team now playing in the World Series.  Still, there is caution for Napoli, who has a history of hip problems, and whose numbers were not great this season.

In 150 games, Napoli hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 homers and 101 RBI.  In 2015, Napoli bounced around, and he hit .224/.324/.410 with 18 homers and 50 RBI in 133 games.  With Napoli turning 35 next year, it is hard to believe he will have another strong campaign.  Furthermore, the last thing this Mets offense needs is another low OBP guy who is seemingly all or nothing at the plate.

Adam Lind

For a few seasons, Lind had proven himself to be a good on base player who may not have the traditional power you typically want from the first base position.  In 2016, Lind played for the Mariners, and his production fell off a cliff.  In 126 games, Lind hit .239/.286/.431 with 20 homers and 58 RBI.  Historically, Lind has also struggled to hit left-handed pitching.  Lind is more of a buy-low candidate in the event there are no better options than he is an upgrade you would seek on the free agent market.

BEST CHOICE

Ultimately, it may behoove the Mets to bring back Duda for one more season.  If he produces at his normal levels, he will be exactly what this offense needs.  Better yet, if he produces at that level, the Mets could give him a qualifying offer next offseason thereby helping them gain a first round draft pick in the process (assuming no changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement).  Furthermore, with Duda, the Mets have a nice bridge to Smith should he take another leap this year and prove himself ready to contribute at the major league level ahead of schedule.

The Cubs World Series Win Was Painful to Watch

If you are a diehard Mets fan, or if you are a Mets fan well versed in the history of the team, you know how the Cubs were the Mets first real rival.  You know the stories about how Ron Santo clicked his heels taunting the Mets, and you warmly remember the black cat crossing Santo’s path.  From there, the Mets overtook the Cubs to win the National League East en route to winning the 1969 World Series.

In 1984, the Cubs obtained Rick Sutcliffe, and the team went on an incredible run to win the National League East over the upstart New York Mets who went from 68 to 90 wins with their first full season with Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry.  By the way, it was also the rookie year for phenom Dwight Gooden.

Then there was the NLCS last year that saw Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom dominate a terrific Cubs lineup.  We all knew the Cubs were a great team, but the Mets were their kryptonite.  As a Mets fan, a large part of you had to wonder if the Cubs even make the World Series if the Mets pitching was healthy.

But the angst goes well beyond that.  There was Ben Zobrist as the World Series MVP.  Mets fans watched him be a major contributor to a Kansas City Royals team who beat the Mets in the World Series last year.  In the offseason, he was seemingly all but assured to join the Mets to replace Daniel Murphy.  Instead, literally at the 11th hour, he spurned the Mets, and he signed with the Cubs.  Part of you had to wonder how different the 2016 season would have been had Zobrist signed with the Mets.

The Cubs also overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.  The Mets were in the same position last year, and like the Cubs, the Mets had their starting pitching aligned.  It all seemed to be going according to plan as Harvey carried a shutout into the ninth inning.  As we remember, Terry Collins went against his better instinct, and he sent Harvey out there instead of Jeurys Familia.  Harvey allowed a walk and a double to narrow the gap to 2-1.  Familia then did his job getting the ground ball to get out of the game only for David Wright to cut off a ball he shouldn’t have played allowing Eric Hosmer an extra jump rounding third.  That was important as it gave Hosmer the ability to break for home, and he scored with Lucas Duda making the worst throw of his life.

Watching the 10th inning reminded me of that 12th inning game of that ill fated Game 5.  Watching a cold and tired Joe Shaw helplessly trying to get out of the jam reminded me of an overworked and tired Addison Reed getting hit left and right by the Royals in what was a devastating seven run inning.

In many respects, as a Mets fan it was tough to watch.  It was even tougher to watch when you consider Theo Epstein got his Cubs team to win the World Series before the Mets could win one despite Sandy Alderson having been on the job a year longer than Epstein.  It is all the more frustrating when you consider the Cubs beat out the Mets for Zobrist, and the Cubs spent a lot of money in the past offseason.

The one solace to take out of all of this is the fact that the Mets are built to win not just next year, but in the ensuing years.  And yes, the Mets are built to contend with or without Yoenis Cespedes.  Not only do the Mets have the pitching, but they also have players like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario on the way.  There is still hope for Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud to rebound in 2017 to recapture their 2015 form.  Duda can put together a healthy contract year season.  There is still a lot of hope for the Mets to be World Series contenders the next couple of seasons.  There are also the seeds for a real rivalry between the Mets and the Cubs over the next few seasons.

However, as of right now, all that is left behind is a World Series victory for the Cubs, and the Mets wondering both “what if” and “how do we get back there.”  That is what stings most of all.

This Could Have Been the Mets

Last year, Ben Zobrist was one of the driving forces for a Royals team that beat the Mets in the World Series.  This year, he was more of the same for a Cubs team that is on the verge of winning their first World Series since 1908.  As luck would have it, Zobrist was one of the many “what if” decisions from the 2015 offseason that leads us to where the Mets are today.

Zobrist choosing the Cubs over the Mets led to a series of dominos falling.  It led to the Mets choosing to trade Jon Niese for Neil Walker instead of looking to re-sign Daniel Murphy.  That, coupled with Brandon Phillips rejected a trade, led Murphy to the Washington Nationals.  Murphy would go on to have an MVP caliber season.  Murphy’s season was more than enough to compensate for Bryce Harper having a down year, by his standards, and for Stephen Strasburg having yet another injury plagued year.

There were strange decisions along the way like the Mets initially passing on Yoenis Cespedes and signing Alejandro De Aza to platoon in center field with Juan Lagares.  There was the multi-year deal with Antonio Bastardo despite him being an every other year reliever and Sandy Alderson’s poor history signing relievers to a multi-year deal with the Mets.  Despite all of that, Cespedes re-signed, and the Mets once again looked like they were primed to return to the World Series in 2017.

Even with Cespedes’ return, the real hope was with the pitching.  Now one could compete with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  If Steven Matz could join his teammates as an ace all the better.  Even with this embarrassment of riches, the Mets still had Zack Wheeler returning from Tommy John surgery.  By the way, waiting to close out those games was Jeurys Familia, who had already established himself as a great closer.  As they said pitching wins championships, and the Mets had pitching in spades.

Early in the season, it worked out.  Even with Harvey struggling, deGrom’s velocity not returning, and Wheeler’s return getting pushed back, the Mets were winning.  Part of the reason why was Syndergaard taking the next step, Matz proving he belonged in the ace discussion, and deGrom adapting well to a lower velocity.

In April, the Mets took two out of three from the Indians in Cleveland.  In a re-match of the NLCS, with a hot Cubs team looking for revenge, the Mets swept them out of Citi Field.  Against this year’s World Series teams, the Mets were 7-3.  This showed the Mets, with their pitching staff in tact, could beat the best of the best.

As we know, the pitching staff never did stay in tact.  Furthermore, despite Walker having a good year, the Mets really missed Zobrist or Murphy as the offense was just one bat short to help carry a dinged up rotation to the finish line.  Still, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman performing better than anyone could’ve anticipated, the Mets made the Wild Card Game.  In reality, the Mets lost that game because Madison Bumgarner was able to go deeper into that game than Syndergaard was.

As we saw in the NLDS, the Giants put a scare into the Cubs by almost sending it back to Wrigley Field for a Game 5.  With the Mets having Addison Reed and Familia, who knows if a Mets-Cubs series would have gone much differently.

Really, that is one of many “what if” situations from the 2016 season that was just disappointing to Mets fans who were dreaming of a World Series this year.  As we saw last year, this Mets pitching staff can beat anybody.  In fact, this Mets pitching staff can demoralize even the best offensive clubs.   When the Mets staff was healthy and in tact this year, which was only a brief snapshot in time (if it really ever was the case), the Mets once again proved that this year.  And with that, there is hope for 2017.  As of the moment, the Mets can expect, Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, and Matz in the Opening Day rotation.  There’s no team in baseball that can match that.

So while Mets fans are sitting there melancholy and wondering “what if” during what should prove to be a great World Series, just remember the Mets have the pitching to win in 2017.  Hopefully, that thought will keep you warm throughout the winter.

Cubs and Indians Haven’t Won Anything Yet

With Yasiel Puig grounding into the game and series ending double play, the National League Pennant was once again won on the grounds of Wrigley Field. 

Understandably, there was pure euphoria. How could you not when you are one step closer to the World Series? That’s the thing – it’s only a step closer. It’s a big and important step, but it’s only a step. 

Everything is different in the World Series. What once worked is not a guarantee. 

Anthony Rizzo and Francisco Lindor are swinging hot bats?  Neither was as hot as Daniel Murphy who was 3-20 in the World Series. 

Andrew Miller and Cody Allen are unhittable?  Jeurys Familia was just as good as them, and he blew three World Series saves thanks to Alex Gordon and the right side of the Mets infield. 

Javier Baez can do no wrong?  Yoenis Cespedes misplayed fly ball out into an inside the park home run on the first pitch Matt Harvey threw. To boot, Cespedes was 3-20 in the World Series. 
Believe your team is the feel good story that is the team of destiny?

What could be better than David Wright not only coming back from spinal stenosis, but also fighting back the ghosts of 2006, 2007, and 2008 to homer in his first home World Seriesat-bat?  Apparently, it was a Royals team that just missed out the year prior who showed a ton a heart, hustle, and determination in a very closely contested five game series. 

The World Series is a reminder that no one has won anything yet. The euphoria of the pennant will soon fade away. What is left is either the true euphoria associated with winning the World Series or the bitter taste of losing the World Series. The loser is left wondering, “What if?”

Getting there is great, but no one has won anything yet. 

Why the Cubs Are Up 3-2 in the NLCS

You can analyze ad nauseum all the different reasons the Cubs are up 3-2 over the Dodgers in the NLCS.  However, Joe Maddon put it best earlier in the postseason when he said, “[The Mets] pitching was unbelievably good,” Maddon said of the Mets’ starting pitching last October. “That’s it. I’m not trying to be smart in any way. They just pitched that well. You would hope to not run into that same method of pitching among the entire group.” (Chicago Tribune). For those that forgot, here is what a healthy Mets rotation looks like in the postseason:

Matt Harvey:

Jacob deGrom:

Noah Syndergaard:

These three pitchers are not only great regular season pitchers, but they are also great postseason pitchers. There is no team in baseball that can match what these three can do. With Harvey and deGrom injured, it just opened the door for someone else. The two teams that couldn’t hit these three aces are now battling it out in the NLCS. For their sake, they better maximize on their opportunity because Harvey and deGrom will not only be healthy, but will also have a chip on their shoulders. With them back, the Mets will reunited the best trio of starting pitchers in baseball, and the Mets will be well on their way to winning the 2017 World Series.

McDonalds Halloween Pails Are Back

One of the best things about being a parent is you get the opportunity to remedy the perceived wrongs from your childhood.  No matter how small or childish they may seem, we all have ones that linger.  One of my lingering issues was my parents not going out and getting the Halloween Pail Happy Meals when my brother and I were children.

You see the Mets winning the World Series wasn’t the only major event of October 1986.  I’ve never confirmed this, but I’m pretty sure Mookie Wilson got one of these for his stepson and nephew Preston Wilson.  Much like the Mets hopes of winning the World Series the following year, my hopes of getting a McDonald’s Halloween Pail were dashed in 1987.  My chances of obtaining one in 1989 were as much as nonstarter as the Mets chances were that year.  In 1990, Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter were closer to New York than I was to getting my Halloween Pail.  In 1992, there were no hopes for me or the Mets.  From there, the Halloween Pails all but disappeared.

That was up until last year when the Halloween Pails re-emerged.  Despite Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard not being alive in 1986, these trio of arms led the Mets to the World Series in the same year the Halloween Pails returned.  Never underestimate the power of the pails.  Like the good Mets fan and father (or petulant child) that I am, I made sure to get all four of them for my son who really had no clue who the Minions were or why he needed four of these pails.  That changes this year.

My son loves Peanuts.  He has loved them since we took him to see The Peanuts Movie, his first ever movie, for his birthday last year, and since he saw A Charlie Brown Christmas last year.  Like any child, he loves Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and the whole Peanuts gang:

  
With that, we have now found the intersection where my son’s love of Peanuts and my need to get these Halloween Pails have met in the parenting Venn diagram.  With that, I have checked one thing off my parenting bucket list, and I will now seek out curing other perceived wrongs like never getting the chance to attend a Mets World Series victory parade.  I guess that one will just have to wait until next year.

To ensure that will happen, I think McDonalds will need to roll out an Avengers Halloween Pail featuring Thor, Captain America (David Wright), Iron Man (Steven Matz), and The Incredible Hulk (Lucas Duda).

By the way, the Great Pumpkin is on tonight:

Lucas Duda Is Our Bill Buckner

Did you ever watch a compilation of the greatest moments in Major Leauge history?  If you have, you usually come across Mookie Wilson‘s little roller up the first base line, and as a Mets fan it brings you a smile.  If you’re a Red Sox fan, you cringe each and every time you see the ball roll through Bill Buckner‘s legs and watch a delirious Ray Knight cross home plate.

As I learned yesterday, the Mets now have their Buckner moment.

In Game Three of the ALDS between the Rangers and the Blue Jays, the score was tied 6-6 in the bottom of the 10th inning.  The Blue Jays had runners at first and second with one out.  Russell Martin hit a ball to the third base hole that seemed too slow to turn the double play.  That didn’t deter Rougned Odor.  After received the throw from Elvis Andrus, he made an offline throw to the first baseman Mitch Moreland, who was unable to handle the ball.  While this was occurring reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, did not stop running.  He rounded third and headed home.  By the time Moreland would pick the ball up and throw home, it was too late.  It was just a brutal way for the Rangers to lose the ALDS.

Sure enough, everyone started comparing Donaldson to Eric Hosmer.  MLB even did a Vine comparing the two plays:

And now we know that every time a player hustles to make a play, invariably there is going to be a comparison to the infamous Lucas Duda throw home in Game Five of the 2015 World Series.

Duda deserves a better fate that this, as did Buckner.  The Mets don’t go to the 2015 World Series without him.  As we saw this past season, when Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, the team missed his presence in the lineup, and yes, the team missed his defense at first base.  One throw doesn’t change what he has accomplished in his career, nor does it change how much the Mets need him back on the field in 2017.

However, that throw does define him.  Years later, all people outside of New York will know about him is he is the guy that made the poor throw.  Assuredly, someone is going to invariably blame him for blowing not just the game, but the entire World Series.  It’ll be nonsense.

As we saw in 1986, it wasn’t just Buckner.  It was Gary Carter, Kevin Mitchell, and Knight not willing to go down without a fight.  It was Rich Gedman just missing a pitch, that was somehow ruled a Bob Stanley wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score.  Furthermore, it was the Red Sox who blew a 3-0 lead in Game Seven of the World Series.  Buckner’s error didn’t help things, but it wasn’t the reason why the Red Sox lost.

Last year, it was Terry Collins allowing Matt Harvey to talk him into pitching another inning.  It was then Collins sticking with Harvey too long in that ninth inning before turning to Jeurys Familia.  It was David Wright cutting in front of Wilmer Flores, to not only make a weak throw to get the out at first, but also to allow Hosmer to aggressively round an abandoned third base.  It was also the Mets offense that didn’t score any runs in the bottom of the ninth or extra innings to lead to that loss.

Like Buckner, Duda didn’t help matters, and he will be forever blamed for the loss.  Worse yet, people will forget two pretty good careers by letting their worst moments define them.  They’ll have that opportunity because their respective errors will be replayed time and time again.  In that sense, Duda has now become the Mets version of Buckner.