Jacob deGrom
The Mets have signed Taijuan Walker to join a rotation which already has Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Carrasco. With Noah Syndergaard set to return from Tommy John this season, that means the fifth starter role on the Opening Day rotation is a temporary one.
That is yet another reason why David Peterson should be starting the 2021 season in Syracuse.
Entering 2020, Peterson was the top pitching prospect in the Mets organization, and at one point in his minor league career, he was considered a top 100 prospect. Even though he pitched for the Mets in that bizarre and truncated season, in many ways, Peterson remains a pitching prospect, and he should be treated as such.
If you are an organization, you don’t take your best Major League ready pitching prospect and put him in the rotation for just two months with the plan of moving him back to the minors or even the bullpen. As a plan, that makes zero to no sense. It’s a gross mishandling of a prospect.
That’s before you also consider Peterson still needs to develop. He did walk 11.7% of the batters he faced. Even with the caveat of Wilson Ramos behind the plate, that’s terrible, and it will not be sustainable for the course of a full season. To be fair, this has not been a significant issue during his minor league career, and as Derek Carty, then of Fangraphs, pointed out ground ball pitchers can get away with a higher walk rate.
The control manifested itself in other areas than just walk rate for Peterson. Last year, he was below average in terms of barrel rates and 10.2% of fly balls against him went for homers. That’s a rate which followed him from Double-A, and that is a poor rate. If you are a pitcher who pitches to contact like Peterson does, you cannot yield that high of a home run rate. These are areas Peterson should be able to address and improve. However, that is difficult when you are bouncing between the majors and Triple-A.
The good news for the Mets is they have built depth sufficient to allow Peterson to continue to develop in the minors. They have both Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto. In terms of Yamamoto, he only has one option remaining, and you don’t want to burn it if you don’t need to do it. With Lucchesi, the Mets have a pitcher who had a much better FIP than Peterson.
That’s an important consideration here. Peterson is not definitively better than the pitchers in the Mets organization. Aside from Lucchesi and Yamamoto, the Mets also have pitchers like Jerad Eickhoff, who should not be completely discounted with his now being over a full season being removed from a biceps issue, and Corey Oswalt.
The point is for two months the Mets have options. Those options could also include bullpenning games with them having both Lucchesi and Yamamoto. When you examine all the options, you see the Mets don’t need to force Peterson into the rotation for two months only to remove him and send him down to Syracuse or the bullpen. No, the better course is for Peterson to start the year in Syracuse to develop and be ready for when the first pitcher in the rotation goes down with an injury.
The New York Mets needed to get just one more starter to make this the truly deep rotation they need. This doesn’t mean deep as in going 1-5 in the rotation, but also the type of depth needed to get through the rigors of a 162 game season. The later was of increased importance as pitchers did not throw many innings last season.
While we have seen some players sign with other teams, the Mets obtained Taijuan Walker. Walker, 28, is arguably the perfect fit for this team.
At 28, Walker is in the prime of his career. The once top 10 prospect in baseball dealt with injury issues limiting him to just 14 innings from 2018-2019. Last year, he finally proved healthy in the truncated 60 game season last year. Yes, it was just 37% of the length of a normal season, but it was a positive step.
Last year, Walker made 11 starts going 4-3 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and an 8.4 K/9. He was at his career averages for hard hit rate. Believe it or not, his 30.9% hard hit rate was actually better than what Jacob deGrom yielded last year. This is an indication as to how difficult it can be to square up Walker at times.
Digging deeper into Baseball Savant, Walker was middle of the pack in terms of exit velocity while being above average in terms of hard hit rate. However, it should be noted he was way down the ledger in terms of spin, velocity, and whiff rates. Of course, one of the reasons for this is Walker is a sinkerball pitcher who has typically pitched to contact.
Keep in mind, Walker is evolving as a pitcher. Before the 2021 season, he spoke to Fangraphs about going to Driveline. While there, Walker refined his slider, worked on changing speeds, grips, arm placement, and generally speaking, being a better pitcher. We saw the early effects of that in 2020.
Now, in 2021, he is going to be another year removed from Tommy John allowing him to continue to increase velocity. He also has a better sense of what worked for him in 2020 and what didn’t. He’s also in a really good place for him to succeed.
Jeremy Hefner has had success in Minnesota working with sinkerball pitchers. Walker is reunited with Marcus Stroman, who can served as a mentor of sorts, and who is also blessed with a similar type of game. There is James McCann behind the plate, who has developed not only as an excellent framer, but early on in Spring Training, he has emerged as a true leader.
Now, Walker is on a pitching staff where he can thrive. He is also in an organization which is continuing to beef up its analytics department. At 28, he still has upside, and he certainly is putting in the work to get the most out of his talent. In all likelihood, last year was him just scratching the surface.s
As for the Mets, this now adds another established high ceiling starter to their rotation. That also gives them increased depth in the rotation. When Noah Syndergaard returns, the Mets rotation will now undoubtedly be the best in baseball. All told, while he may not have been the top choice by many, Walker fits in perfectly with the Mets.
When Marcus Stroman stepped to the microphone to speak with the media for the first time this season, he reminded everyone why the New York Mets need to extend him past this season. This is a great pitcher born to play in New York.
Watch as @ STR0 speaks to the media live from #SpringTraining. https://t.co/ThAjyjn7Rl
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 18, 2021
In that press conference, Stroman spoke about things we already knew about him. He believes in himself, and a huge reason why is because the man puts in the work.
Call it confidence, or call it ego. Just don’t call it hubris.
Stroman literally turns over every possible stone there is to improve as a pitcher. He trains to make sure he’s in exceptional shape. He focuses on the mental side of not just the game, but also his life. He keeps his family close, protects them, and appreciates them. He also is constantly evolving.
New split-change I’ve been working on. @PitchingNinja @CodifyBaseball https://t.co/wXRgLKbpKo pic.twitter.com/CIYJKPdFb8
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) December 29, 2020
Here’s what’s interesting about the splitter. Back in 2018, when the Toronto Blue Jays signed Matt Shoemaker, part of Stroman’s reaction was he wanted to learn the pitch. We’re seeing that again with the Mets.
Stroman has been unabashedly honest saying Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in the game. Fully knowing that, Stroman takes full advantage watching and learning from deGrom.
Stro don't lie. <audio> pic.twitter.com/8uuVczwHiY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 19, 2021
He’s been actively talking with deGrom how to be a better pitcher. This is exactly who Stroman is. This is a pitcher who does everything he can to go out there to improve and beat the other team.
He really does all he can. Remember, this is an elite defender on the mound. Mets fans saw a glimpse of that in his first start for the team. He also works on varying his delivery and timing to throw off the hitters. Really, he leaves no stone unturned.
Honestly, as he ages, you can see Stroman being the type of guy who reaches out to Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey to learn the knuckleball. If for no other reason, he’ll do it so he knows it for the time in his career when he may need it.
This is also why he’s a big game pitcher. His belief in himself and his teammates manifests itself when he takes the mound. It’s why he was the World Baseball Classic MVP, and why he had some of the guttiest performances you’ll see returning from an ACL injury to pitch for the Blue Jays in the postseason.
Overall, if you look at Stroman, you see a pitcher who will age well because he d constantly working to improve. Yes, every Major Leaguer does that to some degree, but Stroman is at another level.
Stroman is a pitcher who loves and thrives on the big stage. He’s the biggest advocate for his teammates. He loves the game, and he loves improving. This is a man who belongs in New York, and the Mets should do everything they can to ensure he spends the rest of his career here.
With pitchers and catchers reporting today for the New York Mets, it is officially the beginning of Spring Training. This is an important time not just because it is the unofficial start of the 2021 baseball season, but also because the clock is officially ticking on the Mets trying to extend Michael Conforto.
This is Conforto’s last season before entering free agency. While Conforto has publicly stated he is open to signing an extension with the Mets, he has also indicated he wants this matter resolved one way or another by Opening Day. Put another way, Conforto doesn’t want negotiations to be a distraction during the season, and as such, if he is not extended by the start of the season, he will test free agency.
The question for Conforto is what exactly that extension would look like. For a point of reference, George Springer just signed a six year $150 million deal ($25 million AAV) with the Toronto Blue Jays. That was a deal the Mets were apparently unwilling to match, and it was a deal with exceeded Sandy Alderson’s preference for deals five years or shorter.
Now, there are differences between Springer and Conforto. Springer is arguably the better player, but he is also four years older. There’s also the matter of Conforto taking the mantle from David Wright in his being a beloved homegrown player and a leader in the clubhouse. Overall, when it comes to Conforto, he checks all the boxes from a team perspective.
That’s not to say the Mets should extend Conforto. For starters, the organization also has to have extension talks with Francisco Lindor. They also need to do the same with Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman. After this year, they will have to do the same with Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and at some point, Jacob deGrom. It is fair to question where extending Conforto lies in the pecking order.
There are some questions with Conforto. While he exploded at the plate last year returning to his pre-shoulder injury levels, he declined significantly in the field. While he was a 1 DRS in right, he was a -5 OAA which was a steep drop-off from previous seasons. Part of that was Conforto’s sprint speed taking a significant hit from 27.5 ft/sec to 26.8.
What is incumbent on the Mets now is determining how much of that is due to the disjointed nature of the 2020 season, and how much of that is the first step in decline. It’s not an easy answer, but it is one the Mets need to reasonably be able to decipher during Spring Training, which just began today.
Overall, extending Conforto would be extremely popular with the fans, and it will likely be very popular in the Mets clubhouse. There seems to be the appetite for all involved to get it done. The question now is whether they can. With Opening Day on April 1, Conforto and the Mets have 43 days to get it done.
Look, the New York Mets still have work to do this offseason. That’s a result not just of how terrible Brodie Van Wagenen and Jeff Wilpon were, but it’s also representative of where the Mets aspirations are.
To that end, instead of looking at a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, and eventually Noah Syndergaard buttressed by impressive depth, fans see a team in need of another starter. To be fair, the Mets organization does as well.
In light of that, the Mets pursued James Paxton, and they’ve pursued other starters as well. Except, the Mets didn’t get Paxton. He would return to the Seattle Mariners for a little more money to pitch at a place where he’s had success to rebuild his value.
Remember, Paxton has an injury history, and he’s coming off an injury. Would Paxton have made the Mets better? Sure. However, what he provides is fungible as compared to the free agent market.
Right now, pitchers like Taijuan Walker, Jake Odorizzi, and Rick Porcello are still free agents. Arguably, Paxton has the highest ceiling, but he may also have the lowest floor.
If the idea is to add a starter for depth, wouldn’t it be better to add the guy you can count on to be healthy? With that being the case, Paxton and Odorizzi aren’t the answer. Walker and Porcello are.
Regardless, missing out on Paxton is not remotely a big deal when you have these other options.
The same can be said about the Mets missing out on Justin Wilson.
Undoubtedly, with Seth Lugo‘s injury, there is an increased need for the Mets to bring in another reliever. Losing Lugo turns a bullpen which was looking like a strength and turning it into a question mark.
Yes, Wilson was quite good with the Mets, and he’s likely to be quite good next year. To that point, it makes the Aaron Loup signing all the more curious. Wilson would’ve likely been far superior for that role, but for some reason, the organization thought Loup was the better fit.
Even with that, there still remains quality options available. There’s Trevor Rosenthal who seemed to put the injuries behind him to return to his dominant form. David Robertson is coming off Tommy John, and he’s been a dominant late inning reliever in his career. There are other interesting names like MVP vote getter Ryan Tepera.
If the Mets want a strictly left-handed reliever, Oliver Perez is available. Put the old nonsense aside, Perez has been a quality reliever. There’s also Tony Watson, who can provide every bit what Wilson could’ve provided.
In total, there’s still plenty of quality arms on the free agent market who can easily provide what Paxton and Wilson would’ve. In fact, there are pitchers available who are in fact better. Because of this, there is absolutely zero reason to get upset over missing those two or other similarly skilled pitchers.
Really, the only time to get upset is in the event the Mets don’t add another starter or reliever. That said, based on all we’ve seen this offseason, it’s hard to believe that’ll happen.
Once again, there are rumors the New York Mets are pursuing Trevor Bauer, and once again, there is a debate whether Bauer is worth it. While most of those debates focus on the personal, it rarely focuses on the budgetary.
Yes, we all know Steve Cohen has more money than the Wilpons, and he’s far more invested in winning. That said, even he has his limits, and he didn’t get this wealthy by just throwing money around like the Yankees when they see a Boston Red Sox player past their prime.
For the Mets, they have to best decide how to invest in players and the team. Looking at it from that perspective, you really have to wonder why the Mets would even bother contemplating signing Bauer.
MLB Trade Rumors projected Bauer could land a four year deal with a $32 million AAV. There have been claims Bauer could surpass Gerrit Cole‘s record $36 million AAV. Long story short it appears it’ll take approximately $30 million per year to sign Bauer.
Looking at the current Mets pitching staff, both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That means the Mets will need to make a decision whether they want to re-sign one, both, or neither.
With Stroman and Syndergaard missing 2020 for differing reasons, Zack Wheeler is an interesting comp. Entering free agency, Wheeler had a strong season-and-a-half. From June 1, 2018 through 2019, he had a 3.26 FIP, and there was the expectation he would improve.
As a result, entering his age 30 season, he received a five year deal with a $23.6 million AAV. Syndergaard, 27, and Stroman, 29, ate slightly younger than Wheeler when he hit free agency. Syndergaard (3.25) has a better FIP than Wheeler over his last two years, and Stroman’s (3.79) is worse.
Given that and a number of other factors, we could well see Stroman and Syndergaard sign deals with an AAV comparable to Wheeler. For the sake of using round numbers, let’s say it’ll take $25 million per year to extend both Stroman and Syndergaard.
In 2020, because Stroman accepted the qualifying offer, he will make $18.9 million. Syndergaard and the Mets settled his final year of arbitration at $9.7 million.
That means, if the Mets were looking to give Stroman a deal with a $25 million AAV, he’d get a $6.1 million raise. For Syndergaard, that’s a $15.3 million raise. Combined, that’s $21.4 million.
Looking at it purely from a pitching perspective, the Mets could give Bauer $30 million, or they can use $21.6 million to keep Stroman and Syndergaard. That’s $8.4 million which can then be used for a Brad Hand or another area of need.
Keep in mind, that $30 million doesn’t have to be used for starting pitching. In addition to Stroman and Syndergaard, the Mets will see Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, and maybe even Jacob deGrom hit free agency over the next few years.
Taking all that into account, you really have to wonder why the Mets would be pursuing Bauer. In reality, it’s a gross misallocation of resources. For what the Mets could give Bauer, they could keep two better ones and have money left over to further invest in the team.
Maybe the Mets still want Bauer, and maybe, they even sign him. Whatever the case, the Mets really have to make sure he’s worth all that comes with him, and given the expiring contracts, all that will likely go.
In reality, it’s far better to keep Stroman and Syndergaard than to sign Bauer. Hopefully, that’s the path the Mets pursue.
When looking to sign a player, the first question is whether that player would improve the team. Clearly, Trevor Bauer clears that hurdle.
The next is whether that player is a worthwhile investment. That’s where it gets complicated for Bauer.
Bauer is noted to want to pitch every fourth day, and he purportedly is seeking $30+ million. Putting aside, the Mets logjam trying to extend players, the Mets have to justify making Bauer their highest paid player when he’s not that.
Putting aside 2020 for a moment, here’s how Bauer would stack against a fully healthy Mets rotation from 2016 – 2019:
ERA+
- Jacob deGrom 151 ERA+
- Carlos Carrasco 126 ERA+
- Noah Syndergaard 119 ERA+
- Trevor Bauer 119 ERA+
- Marcus Stroman 113 ERA+
FIP
- deGrom 2.82 FIP
- Syndergaard 2.83 FIP
- Carrasco 3.37 FIP
- Bauer 3.70 FIP
- Stroman 3.80 FIP
Looking at it, Bauer is clearly fourth. However, when you compare the relative levels of competition, Stroman has put up his numbers against VASTLY superior competition.
Taking that into account, when Syndergaard returns, that makes Bauer the fifth starter on this Mets team. Yes, he’d be by far the best fifth starter in the league, but a fifth starter nevertheless.
Now, Bauer did have a great 2020. However, it should be noted that came in a shortened season against absolutely dreadful competition. Moreover, Bauer, himself, put into question just how he was able to accomplish it.
If you’re the Mets, how can you possibly sign a pitcher to the highest contract when he’s likely going to be your fifth best starting pitcher? While a team could do whatever they want, this would seem like a mismanagement of resources.
No, the Mets should be better allocating those resources to positions of need like third, center, and the bullpen. They should be looking to extend their players including Stroman and Syndergaard. They should be letting another team roll the dice with Bauer.
The Mets have four pitchers better than Bauer. They should let that quartet led them in 2021 and hopefully well beyond that.
June 1, 2012.
Johan Santana was 10 starts deep into the season as he tried to make the fairly unprecedented step of returning from anterior capsule surgery in his pitching shoulder. On this night, this one glorious night, he would do something no one had ever done before:
The Mets history is one of great pitching. There were great pitchers both before and after Santana. There were many close cases, but Santana was the only one who threw a no-hitter.
This is just one part of his legendary Mets career.
Santana initially came to the Mets after the dismal 2007 collapse. He came to the Mets as the piece meant to not only ensure there wouldn’t be a second collapse, but also to get them to the World Series.
Santana would more than hold up his end of the bargain. That season he was arguably cheated out of the Cy Young after he led the NL in ERA, GS, and IP.
Even if Santana didn’t win the award, he proved himself to be an ace’s ace and arguably the best pitcher in baseball. In a game the Mets had to win, Santana took the ball on the penultimate day of the season despite his being on short rest and his dealing with a knee injury. It was a virtuoso performance:
In that game, Santana registered the last great performance by a Mets pitcher at Shea Stadium. It was the last complete game shut out, and he would pick up the last win by a Mets pitcher in the ballpark.
The Mets were in the position for that heartbreaking loss because Santana was phenomenal down the stretch. In the second half, he was 8-0 with a 2.17 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP.
Sadly, it was the last chance for him to pitch in a pennant chase for the Mets. Poor roster decisions, an ill conceived ballpark, a Ponzi scheme, and flat out bad ownership cost the Mets and Santana the opportunity to again compete for a postseason berth.
Despite that, Santana was good when his health allowed him to pitch for the Mets.
To this day, he is still the Mets best left-handed pitcher in the Citi Field era. Since the ballpark opened, he leads all left-handed pitchers in ERA and FIP. Overall, he’s fourth and sixth in those categories respectively.
Looking past that with an eye towards Mets history, Santana still rates well. He’s sixth all-time in ERA+ and 10th in K/BB%. He’s 11th in pitching WAR despite having fewer starts than anyone in the top 10. In fact, he has the second fewest starts out of any Mets pitcher in the top 20.
As if this convincing enough, Santana’s impact on the Mets is still felt to this day. Back when Santana was rehabbing his shoulder injury, a then unknown prospect by the name of Jacob deGrom was rehabbing from Tommy John.
As detailed by Tim Rohan, then of the New York Times, Santana taught deGrom how to throw his change-up. That helped deGrom set on the path to not only make the majors but also become the best pitcher in all of baseball.
In a nutshell, that shows how much of a profound impact Santana has had on the Mets organization.
He delivered the last great moment in Shea Stadium history. He’s thrown the only no-hitter. He and his change-up helped deGrom. When you break it all down, it’s just impossible to tell the history of the Mets without Santana.
Overall, he’s one of the best starters in team history, and he’s done things no one has done in Mets history. As a result, he belongs in the Mets Hall of Fame.
Now that Francisco Lindor is a member of the New York Mets, the team now has to try to find a way to sign the 27 year old superstar to a contract extension. This is the move the Los Angeles Dodgers made with Mookie Betts just last year.
Its also what the Mets once did with Keith Hernandez and Mike Piazza. Those moves resulted in a World Series, two pennants, two NL East titles, and four postseason appearances. Keeping Lindor can very well have the same impact on the Mets going forward.
However, it’s more than just Lindor. The Mets have key pieces of their core ready to hit free agency after this year.
First and foremost is Michael Conforto. In 2020, Conforto emerged as a true leader for this team and a potential future captain. Since moving past his shoulder injury, he’s re-established himself at the plate with a 135 OPS+ over the past two seasons.
Another homegrown Mets player who will be up for free agency is Noah Syndergaard, who will be returning from Tommy John at some point in 2021. Before suffering that injury, he was arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball.
From his debut in 2015 – 2019, Syndergaard was 10th best in the majors in FIP and WAR while having the second best hard hit rate. He’s also a pitcher who thrives on the big stage. He was the last Mets pitcher to win a postseason game, and in the last Mets postseason game he arguably out-pitched Madison Bumgarner over seven innings.
At 28, he’s still young and in his prime. This is the type of pitcher teams usually move to make a part of their franchise for as long as they possibly can.
Joining Syndergaard near the top of the Mets rotation and free agency is Marcus Stroman. Like Syndergaard, the 2017 World Baseball Classic MVP was born to pitch in the big game and on the biggest stage.
What truly stands out with Stroman is not just his positivity, but his tireless pursuit to improve as a pitcher. That is exactly the type of pitcher who not only tends to improve as years progress, but he’s the type of pitcher who has a positive impact on teammates.
New split-change I’ve been working on. @PitchingNinja @CodifyBaseball https://t.co/wXRgLKbpKo pic.twitter.com/CIYJKPdFb8
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) December 29, 2020
In terms of advanced stats like FIP and WAR, he lines up as a number two starter. However, he’s someone who you trust against another team’s ace. He’s not good, and he’s not getting outworked by anyone.
Right there, the Mets have four extremely important pieces due for an extension. After 2020, their two best position players, and two of their best three starters hit the free agent market. If the Mets truly want to rival the Dodgers, they need to move to lock these pitchers up long term.
That’s easier said than done. Some of these players may want to test the free agent market. Steve Cohen’s pockets aren’t bottomless. There’s also the matter of other players on the team.
Steven Matz will also be a free agent. After the 2022 season, Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo will be free agents. Jacob deGrom can opt out of his contract after 2022, and the Mets have a team option on Carlos Carrasco.
Overall, the Mets have to make a number of extraordinarily important decisions on players on their roster over the ensuing two seasons. They need to balancing being able to extend those players with adding another huge contract.
By the looks of it, obtaining Lindor hasn’t completed the big moves for this Mets offseason. Rather, it means their work really has just begun.