J.D. Davis

J.D. Davis Ready For Great Season

There are reports the deadened ball efforts may not have gone as planned with the new balls looking all the more juiced. That could really benefit J.D. Davis who had a really good second half in 2019 with the juiced ball.

Add to that, his working with Francisco Lindor and Gary Disarcina at third. Certainly, Lindor’s range helps him defensively as he has less ground to cover. We already saw some of the positive results this Spring Training.

When you look at Davis, you see a player who is in a position to succeed. He’s in a deep lineup, and there are players around him who are going to make him a better player. Between that and his willingness to do whatever he needs to do to succeed, no one, especially me, should be counting out his ability to have a great 2021 season.

page top

20/20 Offseason Hindsight: Let The Steve Cohen Era Begin

Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets, and suddenly, everything got better. After Cohen purchased the Mets, things were different, very different:

1. It’s still unbelievable to think the Mets added $92.1 million to the 2021 payroll alone. If nothing else, that announced everything was different.

2. The Francisco Lindor trade was a franchise defining trade. He’s a superstar as future Hall of Famer.

3. It’s still hard to believe a contract extension won’t get done. After him, Noah Syndergaard may get one next.

4. It’s hard to see Scott Boras letting Michael Conforto sign an extension now. However, if he does, he will be poised to be the next captain and break a lot of David Wright’s records.

5. Speaking of breaking records, Jacob deGrom looks primed to have a great year. He cane out in midseason form, and it’ll be a shock if he’s not the Cy Young.

6. When Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco return, this will be an all-time Mets rotation.

7. It’s still curious the plan to start the year is to put David Peterson in a position where he bounces back and forth all year.

8. Speaking of curious decisions, how do the Mets make all of these moves and build a ground ball staff only to trust J.D. Davis at third.

9. They’re also putting a lot of stock in Edwin Diaz being great, and Miguel Castro figuring it out. Although to be fair, it’s not the same with Davis as this was the result of Seth Lugo‘s injury.

10. Dellin Betances looks done. With him, we may find out just how much Cohen can tolerate and whether the Mets know how to handle a sunk cost.

11. With Jordan Yamamoto not making the Opening Day roster and Luis Guillorme not getting a starting job, we see Spring Training competitions are a complete fraud.

12. For all the lip service Sandy Alderson gave to making the Mats a better defensive team, he did what he always did in putting multiple first basemen in the field.

13. They may be deadening the ball, but Pete Alonso looks ready to murder them. He’s completely locked in and looks poised to have a monster year.

14. Marcus Stroman also looks set to have a great year. He may be a surprise Cy Young contender, and it may behoove the Mets to lock him up before his price tag soars.

15. Stroman is a reminder the Mets never needed Trevor Bauer. Bauer may have another great year, but he’d be a fifth starter on this team, and he would’ve prevented the Mets from extending their stars.

16. All told, this is a team who has a deep lineup and a very good starting rotation. There are holes, but the team seems confident they can win.

17. The black jerseys returning does give this team big 1999 vibes.

18. Luis Rojas may emerge as a surprise manager of the year candidate. This team is that good and so is he. The key will Be how well he utilizes his defensive replacements in Guillorme (who should be starting), Albert Almora, and Kevin Pillar.

19. James McCann seems like the perfect addition to this team. The pitchers seem to be raving about his leadership and work behind the plate. If he hits a little (and he can hit a lot), he’s going to be great.

20. Everything about this organization is different. The team is vastly improved. They’re looking to keep their best players. They’re beefing up their analytics and player development. Overall, it’s a great time to be a Mets fan.

page top

Gary DiSarcina Can’t Be Serious

Imagine for a second criticizing Luis Guillorme‘s defense while at the same time praising J.D. Davis. Now, imagine that coming from a Mets coach.

Absurd, right? Well beyond absurd. No one in their right mind would ever do that. Right?

Sadly, it’s true. That’s what Gary Disarcina did. Sorry, Mets INFIELD COACH Gary Disarcina.

Disarcina spoke about how Guillorme has limited range and how he should learn first base to become a more versatile utility player. Yes, it was couched as a positive, but saying your second best defensive infielder has limited range is an unnecessary criticism.

Guillorme wasn’t the only player Disarcina critiqued. He also spoke about Davis’ defense. Now, given how he was critical of Guillorme, you could only imagine what he had to say about Davis.

As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Disarcina said, “he’s been ‘pleased’ with Davis’ work [at third] this spring.” He also spoke about analytics helping Davis and that Davis has “definitely improved.”

The article also spoke about wanting to make Davis work at third because they want to keep his bat in the lineup and Guillorme on the bench.

That’s right. The Mets are actively ignoring Guillorme continuing to prove himself as an everyday player to make something work that hasn’t. Remember, Davis has been among the worst defenders in Mets history.

Now, they have Disarcina saying Guillorme has poor range and needs to learn first to become more versatile while saying he’s pleased with Davis’ progress. Maybe we should consider the source.

Disarcina was the bench coach who couldn’t properly run QC leading to Jay Bruce batting out of order. He’s also been completely unable to help Mets infielders defensively.

Remember, Disarcina has been coaching Davis for two years now, and Davis has only regressed. Jeff McNeil was a good third baseman, and he struggled under Disarcina’s tutelage last year.

There’s also Amed Rosario. Rosario was an exceptionally gifted prospect who many thought could win a Gold Glove one day. Instead, while working with Disarcina, Rosario was actually the worst defensive shortstop in baseball and fourth worst defender overall.

This same coach is now going to say Guillorme has limited range while working on his versatility to be a better bench player? He’s going to say he’s finally getting through to Davis?

It’s an embarrassing series of statements devoid of any credibility. It really only highlights how poor of a coach Disarcina has been and just which direction the Mets want to go.

At this point, they’d rather try to go with someone who is among the worst fielders in Mets history over the better player who has earned the job. For some reason, the Mets and Disarcina thought they should prop up one player while taking subtle shots at the better player.

It’s ridiculous and hopefully dishonest.

page top

Mets Third Base Dilemma

Simply put, third base was the biggest hole the New York Mets had this offseason, and they did nothing to address it. Now, they’re scrambling.

The incumbent, J.D. Davis, is the worst defensive player in baseball. Not hyperbole, his DRS is literally the worst since joining the Mets.

With the Mets not improving, they’re starting to sell he’s improved there. They even point to Francisco Lindor working with him. There are two problems to this.

First, it’s useless talking point we hear every Spring akin to “best shape of their life.” Second, Davis is still quite bad in the videos promoting his defense.

Really, he can’t play the position, and the Mets need to stop trying to make it work. The problem is if not Davis, then who?

Yes, the answer is literally anyone else on the team would be better, but that’s also not a good answer. One early talking point is the idea of a Davis platoon with the left-handed hitting Jonathan Villar.

Villar, too, is a bad defender. Over the last two years, he has a -12 DRS in the middle of the infield. The counter-argument is third may be an easier position to play and a better fit for him.

However, that point ignores the disaster Jose Reyes was at third. Players in defensive decline just don’t automatically stem the tide and thrive at third. That’s an important consideration for a player in Villar who hasn’t played there since 2016. In that year, he played 346.2 innings there and had a -5 DRS.

So, looking at it, we return to Jeff McNeil, a player who has actually been the Opening Day starter there the last two seasons. He also has a career 5 DRS and 3 OAA there in his career.

Yes, he had a tough stretch there last year, and he had a tough Spring Training game. Even with that, he’s still been FAR SUPERIOR than the players who are under consideration for third. If you couple that with the ability to put Luis Guillorme and his Gold Glove caliber defense at second, it’s hard to argue there’s a better option.

The only problem is the Mets seem to be reluctant to both put McNeil at third and to play Guillorme everyday. It’s a bizarre thought process with zero sound reasoning given the construction of this roster.

Whatever the case, this is how the Mets built their team. It’s imperative they put their best players on the field in the best position to succeed and help the pitching staff who induces a lot of grounders.

Short of the Mets making that trade for a third baseman, they’re stuck trying to figure out a dilemma they failed to address this offseason. Rather than push sunk costs, lost cases, and poor thought processes, they need to do what helps them win in 2021.

page top

Reaction To Jeff McNeil Rough Day at Third

In his first Spring Training start at third base, Jeff McNeil struggled. He had three errors – a missed catch, a missed grounder, and a bad throw.

The complete overreaction to this should be a really big yawn.

As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets may not be quite reacting that way. In fact, Puma reports J.D. Davis and Jonathan Villar will get the bulk of playing time at third.

If true, it’s a bad plan. Davis is the worst third baseman in the game. Villar is a poor defender who last played third in 2016. Looking at it, McNeil is the Mets best defensive third baseman with a 5 DRS.

McNeil at third would also open up more playing time for Luis Guillorme. If nothing else, Guillorme is a very good defender. He’s also been making significant strides offensively.

Guillorme should ideally start at second where he is Gold Glove caliber. That would move McNeil to third. Notably, Luis Rojas said McNeil has “looked well at third base in the past.” He will again if given the opportunity.

Overall, Guillorme at second with McNeil at third remains the Mets best possible infield. As such, the team should not overreact to one poor day.

The Mets need to be better than that. They need to roll their eyes and do what’s right for the team. Whatever they decide, they need to move forward with their best team and lineup.

page top

Dominic Smith Defense May Be Key To 2021 Season

As Sandy Alderson is wont to do, the New York Mets are going to stick a first baseman in left due to his offense. That means Dominic Smith, the team’s best defensive first baseman, will be out there.

In terms of offense, Smith’s bat definitely plays in left. In 2021, he was the sixth best hitter in all of baseball. Since 2020, he’s had a 148 wRC+. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would’ve ranked him behind only Juan Soto and Christian Yelich.

Seeing that, you certainly understand the impetus to keep him in the lineup. However, to truly justify that, he’s going to have to play well defensively, especially when he’s playing behind J.D. Davis, who is the worst defensive third baseman in all of baseball.

The numbers are a mixed bag for Smith’s ability to actually play left. Since 2019, he has a – 1 DRS. He also has a -5 OAA and a -4.1 UZR. While there has been progress on all three metrics for him, overall, with him playing 380.1 innings out there, those numbers are not very good.

Part of the issue is Smith really doesn’t have the speed to play the outfield. His sprint speed is 26.0+ ft/sec. That rates among the worst at the position. As an aside, that puts him right in line with Soto, who like Smith, appears like he belongs at first.

Despite the poor defensive numbers, there is some legitimate hope for Smith in left.

First and foremost, Smith entered this season knowing he’s going to be the left fielder. That permitted him to spend months preparing to play the position. That’s an advantage he really had not previously had in his career.

Another benefit is Luis Rojas. Rojas had previously worked with Jeff McNeil to help him learn left on the fly, and McNeil would be an All-Star. Rojas is an excellent coach who has previously worked with Smith.

One benefit Rojas and Smith will have this year is better information. Since buying the team, Steve Cohen has made a concerted effort to beef up the analytics department. On that note, Brandon Nimmo spoke about how it will impact defensive positioning.

On top of all that, we have seen Smith is a hard worker who does everything he can to succeed. There’s no doubt he’s done all he could’ve done to make sure he won’t be a question mark or liability in left this year.

Despite that, there still remains a reasonable debate whether Smith can adequately defend left this year. As we see, the numbers all point towards no, but from an intangibles standpoint, no one should be discounting Smith.

In the end, the only thing we know is Smith did everything he could’ve done to be a good left fielder. Time will tell if he actually became one or can become one during the season.

The Mets are going to need it because there are too many players playing out of position already. Someone is going to have to establish themselves and stabilize the defense. Hopefully, that player can be Smith.

page top

Mets 2021 Optimal Lineup

As fans, we are always so critical of the manger about the lineup. Of course, we know managers don’t really set the lineup anymore, and more to the point, there are just so many moving pieces when setting a lineup. While overlooked, there really is a human element at play, which fans are never quite aware.

When it comes to the Mets, there are so many different options on how to set this lineup. For starters, there are four elite lead-off hitters. There are seven middle of the lineup caliber bats. Luis Rojas and the Mets front office have to balance egos as well as how to get the most out of all of their hitters. Taking all of that into account, the 2021 Mets lineup should be:, 3B

  1. Jeff McNeil, 3B
  2. Brandon Nimmo, CF
  3. Francisco Lindor, SS
  4. Michael Conforto, RF
  5. Pete Alonso, 1B
  6. Dominic Smith, LF
  7. James McCann, C
  8. Luis Guillorme, 2B

The caveat here is this is obviously not going to be the lineup. After all, early indications from Spring Training are Nimmo will hit lead-off, and the Mets are going to give J.D. Davis the bulk of the playing time at third despite his being incapable of playing the position.

The reason to bat McNeil lead-off is two-fold. First and foremost, McNeil is at his best batting lead-off. As previously detailed, McNeil is an aggressive hitter at the plate, and he is terrific hitting fastballs. Notably, pitchers throw a fastball to start the game over 99% of the time. That gives McNeil an advantage, and it allows him to get an ideal pitch to swing and put in play. Worst case, pitchers adapt, throw something else, and then fall out of rhythm.

That gives Nimmo the opportunity to be a second lead-off hitter. After the pitcher had to deal with McNeil jumping all over him, Nimmo can then work the deep counts he always does. As an aside, a healthy Nimmo is the Mets best hitter, and at least statistically, a team’s best hitter should bat second in the lineup.

What’s interesting is while your best hitter should bat second, your second best hitter should bat fourth. Some of this is counter-intuitive because we’ve done baseball a certain way for more than a century. Keeping that in mind, the Mets second best hitter is arguably Conforto.

Conforto has the longer and better track record. Like Nimmo and Lindor, he’s also shown the ability to hit without the juiced ball. That’s not an indictment of the younger hitters who have only played with the juiced ball. It’s just a fact.

That means Conforto should bat cleanup. Who should bat third is an interesting debate. Given his stature as a superstar and his being a switch hitter, Lindor slots in well here.

Batting Lindor third, also allows the Mets to begin the L-R alternating through the bottom of the lineup. That gives the Mets the most lethal 5-6 hitters in all of baseball and gives them the deepest lineup in all of baseball.

That leads us to Guillorme eighth. Fact is, he’s Gold Glove caliber at second. With the ground ball heavy pitching staff the Mets have, he definitively needs to be in the lineup over Davis. It should also be noted Guillorme has been improving significantly offensively while Davis is a ground ball machine.

Of course, certain players may feel better or more comfortable in different spots. The Mets may also want to change it up when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. That said, at least on paper, this is the optimal Mets lineup.

page top

Francisco Lindor Already Better Than Advertised

When the New York Mets acquired Francisco Lindor, fans knew they were getting a future Hall of Famer. Well, it appears he is more than just that.

First and foremost, Lindor is just fun. He’s always smiling and seems to love playing more than anyone. Keep in mind, when you play with Brandon Nimmo that is really saying something.

He’s bringing an energy to the Mets much in the same way we once saw with Yoenis Cespedes and his Spring Training antics. For Lindor, that’s been dying his hair blue and donning the Eddie Murphy Mets jacket not only to go to work but later at picture day:

If we think this is fun, wait until he takes the field. When we see that, we’ll see what makes him a great player with an infectious personality. We should also see the Mets winning games.

In terms of that, Lindor is doing all he can to help the Mets be a winner in 2021. He’s already taken on a leadership role. We saw that in action as he worked to help J.D. Davis improve at third:

If Lindor can truly get Davis to even be competent at third, he will be pulling off a miracle. If miracle worker is part of his skill set, we probably shouldn’t be surprised.

Really, we shouldn’t be surprised by anything with Lindor. He’s fun. He’s a leader. He’s willing to help his teammates improve and raise their games.

All told, so far Lindor is everything promised, and he has already been far more. Just think, it’s already better than we all imagined, and he still hasn’t had the chance to wow us in the field.

page top

Brandon Nimmo Is Mets Best Hitter

As we look at the 2021 Mets, offensively speaking this team is an embarrassment of riches. This team is full of players who can be great hitting lead-off and can make the argument they should be hitting in the middle of the lineup. As you parse through it all, the debate begins over who exactly is the best hitter on this team.

It may come to surprise you the answer is actually Brandon Nimmo.

No, that is not going to be a popular answer, especially among a fanbase who has a contingent who bizarrely believes Nimmo is a fourth outfielder. To that point, if we look since 2017, here are the Mets top hitters according to wRC+:

  1. Jeff McNeil 139
  2. Brandon Nimmo 136
  3. Pete Alonso 136
  4. Michael Conforto 132
  5. Francisco Lindor 119
  6. Dominic Smith 116
  7. J.D. Davis 115
  8. Luis Guillorme 93
  9. James McCann 91

Now, looking at that list, McNeil is ahead of Nimmo, and Nimmo is in a dead heat with Alonso. Really, taking the top four into account the 132 – 139 range isn’t really much of a separation to adjudge who is best among that group. However, there is more to the story when you are looking at Nimmo.

Nimmo’s biggest issue in terms of these rankings is he mostly missed out on the super juiced ball of 2019. While everyone was putting up video game numbers, Nimmo first dealt with a sore hand after a HBP early in the season. Soon thereafter, he was found to have a bulging disc which cost him the vast majority of that season.

While injuries of that nature are certainly concerning, Nimmo has done nothing but shown he has overcame that injury. Nimmo was reactivated when rosters were expanded in September. From September 1 through the 2020 season, Nimmo hit .275/.412/.506, and he posted a 151 wRC+. That wasn’t exactly a fluke.

In Nimmo’s breakout 2018 season, Nimmo had a 148 wRC+. It’s of interest to note, Nimmo had the same mark in 2020. That’s elite offensive production, and in his last two healthy seasons, he’s posted that same number. Keep in mind, that’s better than any other player on the Mets has posted over the course of a full 162 game season.

Yes, last season, we did see some Mets players post a better wRC+. Specifically, Smith had a 164, and Conforto had a 157. In terms of both, we have seen enough in their careers to indicate they are capable of producing incredible offensive seasons like that. We know the same for McNeil and Alonso. We haven’t seen it in New York, but we know Lindor is a very good offensive player albeit it one a step behind the rest.

Still, no one on the Mets roster has produced the numbers Nimmo has when Nimmo has been healthy. When healthy, Nimmo has produced at a level commensurate with players like Juan Soto (152), Christian Yelich (147), and Freddie Freeman (146). Since 2017, that’s the level of offensive player Nimmo has been.

Certainly, people refuse to believe it and want to write it off because Nimmo walks too much as if that is a bad thing. They also dismiss his approach citing he’s taking hittable pitches while ignoring his .456 SLG and .850 OPS. Nimmo is a player who makes a pitcher work, he gets on base, and he hits for power. That should be seen as the ideal profile for a hitter.

Also, keep in mind, it’s not just about batting average or homers. It’s about the ability to get on base. Few in all of baseball are better than Nimmo in that department and certainly no one on the Mets.

Overall, when Nimmo is healthy, he is the best offensive player in this lineup. Sure, he could very well be surpassed by players like Alonso or Conforto. That is very well possible given the caliber of player they are. However, keep in mind even with all the great things they do, they still haven’t done what Nimmo when healthy over the course of a 162 game season.

page top

Mets Probably Don’t Need Another Reliever

Like it always seems to be, the New York Mets entered the offseason with the need to rebuild their bullpen. As the Mets entered Spring Training without Seth Lugo, there seemed to be a renewed emphasis on the need to add more relievers to the bullpen. However, when you break it down, the Mets may not need to actually add another arm.

Typically speaking, we will see the Mets carry a 12 man pitching staff which means seven relievers. Right off the bat, the Mets are set at closer with Edwin Diaz. He will certainly be joined in the bullpen by recent signees Trevor May and Aaron Loup. That trio right there takes care of the Mets closer, the eighth inning, and their LOOGY.

That leaves them having to figure out the other four relievers in the bullpen. Based upon the moves of Brodie Van Wagenen, three of those spots are occupied by Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, and Jeurys Familia. This trio could very well become the core of what might be an excellent bullpen.

As previously detailed, Betances induced very weak contact last season, and he would miss a lot of bats. Looking at Baseball Savant, there was also a lot of promise with Jeurys Familia‘s season as he also induced a lot of weak contact, and he had terrific velocity. What really hampered each of their seasons was a mixture of walks and plain old bad defense.

Betances had a 1.56 GB/FB last year, but despite the weak contact, he yielded a .353 BABIP. Familia didn’t have the same issues with ground balls turning into outs as Betances, but he did see a career worst walk rate come back to bite him. Keep in mind, in only two of the 10 appearances where he didn’t walk a batter did the opposition score off of him.

Both relievers will be helped by the improved infield defense we should see with Francisco Lindor at short. Also, while we may see J.D. Davis start at third, in all likelihood, he should be removed late in games for Luis Guillorme thereby making the Mets defense elite for these groundball pitchers who induce weak contact.

Keep in mind, while Betances and Familia have typically had higher walk numbers, neither had really posted numbers that poor in their careers. Part of that could easily be explained by them trying to regain their prior form in a disjointed offseason. Really, both pitchers needed to hone a number of things, and the pandemic really cost them the opportunity to work with Jeremy Hefner like they needed.

Given a normal offseason and Spring Training, it is reasonable to assume both could be reasonably relied upon to at least easily handle the middle innings. Perhaps, they could eventually be reasonably be able to be relied upon for the seventh and eighth. In fact, we should be able to see them close a game or two here and there.

In terms of Castro, no one throws it harder. Really, that makes him a bit of a wild card not too dissimilar to what Hansel Robles used to be for the Mets. If you can harness him, you have an elite reliever. If you don’t you have an interesting mop up reliever. Either which way, he is out of options, and he is going to get every chance for the Mets to be the team to finally unlock his abilities.

When you add Lugo to these relievers, this bullpen could be the envy of every team in the majors. The question for the Mets is what to do in his absence. In terms of that, the Mets have plenty of options.

Joey Lucchesi profiles as a potential elite reliever. We have seen Robert Gsellman be elite out of the bullpen for stretches. If nothing else, we know he can absorb innings. The same could also be true for Jordan Yamamoto. The Mets also have a number of interesting young relievers to throw at the problem with Jacob Barnes, Yennsy Diaz, Sam McWilliams, Sean Reid-Foley, Drew Smith, Stephen Tarpley, and Daniel Zamora. Of course, there is also Mets fan favorite Jerry Blevins here on a minor league deal.

The moral of the story is the Mets have the talent in the bullpen. The real challenge is going to be for Hefner to work with them to get the most out of them. Then, perhaps the even bigger challenge is for Luis Rojas to deploy them properly. Overall, if Hefner and Rojas are successful, the Mets will get the most out of what is an extremely talented group, and we will begin to wonder why exactly we were so overly concerned about adding a big name reliever in the offseason.

page top