Francisco Lindor
When the New York Mets pulled off that surprise blockbuster deal with the Cleveland Indians, they obtained Carlos Carrasco to be a mid-rotation starter. For the Mets, Carrasco is a perfect fit.
The 33 year old pitcher is on an extraordinarily team friendly deal. He’s owed just $12 million per year for each of the next two years with a third year option for $14 million. Historically, he’s outperformed that.
From 2016 – 2018, Carrasco averaged 15 wins a season posting a 3.39 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9. He averaged 6+ innings per start.
In terms of advanced stats, he had a 134 ERA+ and a 3.21 FIP. That FIP was the 10th best in baseball meaning he was pitching like a number one starter.
Carrasco struggler in 2019, but that was due in large part to his battling leukemia. Carrasco entered 2020 healthy, and he was great again with a 157 ERA+ and a 3.59 FIP. In essence, he was Carrasco.
Looking at it Carrasco being Carrasco is being a better pitcher than Bauer.
For that same 2016 – 2018 period, Bauer averaged 14 wins per season posting a 3.57 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9. He also had a 125 ERA+ and a 3.45 FIP. Basically, across the board, Carrasco was better.
Now, if we shift the three year period to incorporate Bauer’s Cy Young winning 2020, things change a bit.
From 2018 – 2019, Bauer had a 3.18 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and an 11.2 K/9. He had a 144 ERA+ and a 3.38 FIP. Across the board, these stats are better than Carrasco, and more to the point, Bauer showed a level in 2020 which Carrasco has never come close to reaching.
It should be noted that Bauer’s 2020 season came against really poor competition, and it was over the course of a 60 game season. Still, it did happen, and Bauer is four years younger.
The question is what is that worth.
With Carrasco, he’s being paid a relatively paltry $12 million per year. According to projections, Bauer is seeking to make north of $20 million more than that.
Yes, the Mets parted with players in the deal to get Carrasco and Francisco Lindor. Looking at that deal, Carrasco was almost treated as a throw-in. Of course, given his ability as a mid to top of rotation pitcher, you can never say he’s a throw-in.
And yet, the deal the Mets made to obtain him and Lindor was such a bargain you could perceive it as such. Taking that into account, Carrasco is a far better option than Bauer.
That goes double when you consider that $20 million difference can be utilized to try to extend Michael Conforto, Lindor, Noah Syndergaard, and Marcus Stroman.
Taking everything into account, Carrasco was a far superior option for the Mets than Bauer. Not only is Carrasco arguably a pitcher who will provide similar production, but he will also do so at a much cheaper price.
Getting Carrasco over Bauer means the Mets have the ability to keep their core as well as add to this team. Every way you break it down, obtaining Carrasco was a stroke of genius and a far, far better move than signing Bauer.
With the New York Mets making a mega-deal with the Cleveland Indians to obtain Francisco Lindor, the Mets understandably parted ways with Amed Rosario. It is disappointing to see Rosario go, and it is going to be hard to see him breakout with a new team.
Rosario initially came to the Mets after signing what was then the largest ever bonus given by the Mets to an international player. Rosario sure seemed to live up to the billing when he rose to the level of coming the top prospect in the game, and he made his Major League debut at the age of 21.
What was clear from the outset with Rosario was he was an exciting and hard working player. He was someone who readily lived up to his mantra of “Don’t Be Surprised, Be Ready.” No, he may not have lived up to his potential immediately, but in the beginning of his career, you saw a player who had the skills to be as exciting as there was in baseball:
From there, we saw growing pains, which is understandable given his age and the state of the organization. Through all of that, we saw a player who made significant improvements in his defense, and we saw a player who made strides in terms of his pitch recognition. Here and there, we saw real glimpses of the superstar we all thought he was going to be. For example, there was his five hit game against the Atlanta Braves in 2019:
It’s probably in large part due to the difficulties presented by COVID19 and the limitations of the shortened 60 game season, but unfortunately, Rosario didn’t truly get the opportunity to build on that 2020 season. He struggled for the most part, but to his credit, he didn’t take those struggles onto the field. Like a real veteran and mature player, he continued to make strides defensively. He would also show us the potential was still there. In many ways, his unique walk-off homer against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium serves as his good-bye present to Mets fans:
It wasn’t the first walk-off hit in his Mets career, but it would prove to be the last. As Mets fans, we had hoped to see more of those moments during the course of his career, but now, he is a member of the Cleveland Indians.
For Rosario, this is a great situation for him personally. He gets to go play for a Hall of Fame manger in Terry Francona as he starts to enter the prime of his career. He gets to move on from being a franchise savior to being just another player on the team being given room to grow, develop, and shine. In this situation, he may well grow to be the All-Star and potentially the superstar we all hoped he would one day be.
If that happens, all Mets fans should be happy for him. Rosario was as hard working and as exciting a player as there is. He tried everything he could do to be a great player, and each year, he made definitive improvements. He gave the Mets all he had, and that deserves nothing put our respect and admiration. Good luck to him, and hopefully, we will see him be all the things we all thought he could be.
Thank you Rosario, and good luck to you.
In case you were skeptical this was indeed a new era of New York Mets baseball, the Mets just acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians. With that, the Mets added a top five player in the game at short, and they added a top of the rotation caliber pitcher to pair with Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman.
When you add these players to a core with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, James McCann, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith. Whether or not the Mets add another starter, bullpen arm, third baseman, or center fielder, the Mets already have the pieces in place to be a true World Series contender.
Just think about it for a moment. Assuming Noah Syndergaard returns this season, this is currently the Mets rotation:
Even if the Mets don’t go out there and sign a George Springer or add a third baseman, this is what the Mets lineup could look like during the course of the 2021 season:
- Brandon Nimmo, CF
- Michael Conforto, RF
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Dominic Smith, LF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Jeff McNeil, 3B
- James McCann, C
- Luis Guillorme 2B
Sure, this Mets team could definitively stand to get better defensively in the outfield. That said, that infield defensive alignment is quite good, especially up the middle, and that lineup is as strong and deep as they come. This is a team who can go toe-to-toe with the defending division champion Atlanta Braves and the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now, this is a great baseball team.
What’s even better is the Mets are not done with their offseason. They are still going to add more pieces. That could include Springer, and it could be a reliever like Brad Hand. There are are likely going to be depth pieces added beyond this group. When all is said and done, the Mets with Steve Cohen, Sandy Alderson, and Jared Porter have already done and will continue to do what Jeff Wilpon and Brodie Van Wagenen could never even dream of doing.
Today is a great day in Mets history. Today is just like the day the Mets acquired Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza. The Mets got a future Hall of Famer in his prime, and they completely changed the trajectory of the franchise both this year and in the years to come.
Lets Go Mets!