Francisco Lindor
During his press conference before the New York Mets first Spring Training game, Sandy Alderson addressed extensions. On that note, he specifically mentioned Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, and Noah Syndergaard as players the team will have discussions.
Going further, Alderson addressed how the offseason impacted building the team. He said James McCann helped allow the Mets to have the capital to bring on Carlos Carrasco and Lindor. He also admitted what impact George Springer could’ve had on the Mets:
Sandy Alderson suggested the Mets had interest in George Springer at five years, but not six. If the Mets had signed Springer, Alderson said, it probably would have precluded them from trying to extend Michael Conforto.
"At some point, even Steve Cohen runs out of money."
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 1, 2021
In that, Alderson admitted it was Conforto or Springer. In some ways, that’s just common sense as Springer was commanding a huge salary, and before his deal was over, he was going to have to move to right field.
That had a direct impact on the Mets ability to keep one of Conforto or Brandon Nimmo. With Conforto hitting free agency first, it was much more likely to be Conforto gone.
Well, Springer has signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. That clears the path for the Mets to keep their core on long term extensions. With Alderson essentially admitting it was Conforto or Springer, that means a Conforto extension must now get done.
It was the Mets who framed it as a Conforto/Springer choice. They now made their choice, and they must now follow through by giving Conforto an extension. After that, they can name him captain and watch on as he makes his attempts to become the Mets best ever position player.
When the New York Mets acquired Francisco Lindor, fans knew they were getting a future Hall of Famer. Well, it appears he is more than just that.
First and foremost, Lindor is just fun. He’s always smiling and seems to love playing more than anyone. Keep in mind, when you play with Brandon Nimmo that is really saying something.
He’s bringing an energy to the Mets much in the same way we once saw with Yoenis Cespedes and his Spring Training antics. For Lindor, that’s been dying his hair blue and donning the Eddie Murphy Mets jacket not only to go to work but later at picture day:
Good morning, my neighbors! #Coming2America @Lindor12BC pic.twitter.com/hUsL8GuDqE
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 25, 2021
“If loving @lindor12bc is wrong, then we don’t want to be right.” ? pic.twitter.com/4CfenchOxH
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 27, 2021
If we think this is fun, wait until he takes the field. When we see that, we’ll see what makes him a great player with an infectious personality. We should also see the Mets winning games.
In terms of that, Lindor is doing all he can to help the Mets be a winner in 2021. He’s already taken on a leadership role. We saw that in action as he worked to help J.D. Davis improve at third:
Francisco Lindor coaching J.D, Davis on the stadium field early this AM. #Mets. pic.twitter.com/nbCW6Ydxav
— David Lennon (@DPLennon) February 28, 2021
If Lindor can truly get Davis to even be competent at third, he will be pulling off a miracle. If miracle worker is part of his skill set, we probably shouldn’t be surprised.
Really, we shouldn’t be surprised by anything with Lindor. He’s fun. He’s a leader. He’s willing to help his teammates improve and raise their games.
All told, so far Lindor is everything promised, and he has already been far more. Just think, it’s already better than we all imagined, and he still hasn’t had the chance to wow us in the field.
As we look at the 2021 Mets, offensively speaking this team is an embarrassment of riches. This team is full of players who can be great hitting lead-off and can make the argument they should be hitting in the middle of the lineup. As you parse through it all, the debate begins over who exactly is the best hitter on this team.
It may come to surprise you the answer is actually Brandon Nimmo.
No, that is not going to be a popular answer, especially among a fanbase who has a contingent who bizarrely believes Nimmo is a fourth outfielder. To that point, if we look since 2017, here are the Mets top hitters according to wRC+:
- Jeff McNeil 139
- Brandon Nimmo 136
- Pete Alonso 136
- Michael Conforto 132
- Francisco Lindor 119
- Dominic Smith 116
- J.D. Davis 115
- Luis Guillorme 93
- James McCann 91
Now, looking at that list, McNeil is ahead of Nimmo, and Nimmo is in a dead heat with Alonso. Really, taking the top four into account the 132 – 139 range isn’t really much of a separation to adjudge who is best among that group. However, there is more to the story when you are looking at Nimmo.
Nimmo’s biggest issue in terms of these rankings is he mostly missed out on the super juiced ball of 2019. While everyone was putting up video game numbers, Nimmo first dealt with a sore hand after a HBP early in the season. Soon thereafter, he was found to have a bulging disc which cost him the vast majority of that season.
While injuries of that nature are certainly concerning, Nimmo has done nothing but shown he has overcame that injury. Nimmo was reactivated when rosters were expanded in September. From September 1 through the 2020 season, Nimmo hit .275/.412/.506, and he posted a 151 wRC+. That wasn’t exactly a fluke.
In Nimmo’s breakout 2018 season, Nimmo had a 148 wRC+. It’s of interest to note, Nimmo had the same mark in 2020. That’s elite offensive production, and in his last two healthy seasons, he’s posted that same number. Keep in mind, that’s better than any other player on the Mets has posted over the course of a full 162 game season.
Yes, last season, we did see some Mets players post a better wRC+. Specifically, Smith had a 164, and Conforto had a 157. In terms of both, we have seen enough in their careers to indicate they are capable of producing incredible offensive seasons like that. We know the same for McNeil and Alonso. We haven’t seen it in New York, but we know Lindor is a very good offensive player albeit it one a step behind the rest.
Still, no one on the Mets roster has produced the numbers Nimmo has when Nimmo has been healthy. When healthy, Nimmo has produced at a level commensurate with players like Juan Soto (152), Christian Yelich (147), and Freddie Freeman (146). Since 2017, that’s the level of offensive player Nimmo has been.
Certainly, people refuse to believe it and want to write it off because Nimmo walks too much as if that is a bad thing. They also dismiss his approach citing he’s taking hittable pitches while ignoring his .456 SLG and .850 OPS. Nimmo is a player who makes a pitcher work, he gets on base, and he hits for power. That should be seen as the ideal profile for a hitter.
Also, keep in mind, it’s not just about batting average or homers. It’s about the ability to get on base. Few in all of baseball are better than Nimmo in that department and certainly no one on the Mets.
Overall, when Nimmo is healthy, he is the best offensive player in this lineup. Sure, he could very well be surpassed by players like Alonso or Conforto. That is very well possible given the caliber of player they are. However, keep in mind even with all the great things they do, they still haven’t done what Nimmo when healthy over the course of a 162 game season.
Back in 1988, the New York Mets owned the town, and one of the funniest movies of all-time, Coming to America, hit theaters. In the movie, we saw Eddie Murphy wear what has become an iconic Mets jacket as the the Prince of Zamunda tried to fit-in in Queens:
Well, it is now over 30 years later, and we are getting a sequel to that movie, Coming 2 America, and once again, the New York Mets appear poised to take over New York behind Steve Cohen. In trailers for the movie, we once again see Murphy wearing the coat. Not only that, but we got to see new Mets superstar Francisco Lindor wear it to Spring Training:
Good morning, my neighbors! #Coming2America @Lindor12BC pic.twitter.com/hUsL8GuDqE
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 25, 2021
Between the movie and the Mets about to take-off, there should be any number of Mets fans ready to go out and buy that jacket. Except, right now, they can’t. It’s not for sale on Fanatics or MLB Shop. If memory serves, this was a Starter jacket, but it is not available for sale by that company.
The failure to have this jacket available for sale seems like a missed opportunity. Speaking for myself and presumably every Mets fan, we would love to buy that jacket. It is a reminder of the best era in Mets history, and right now, it could very well be a harbinger for the next great era of Mets baseball. If we are going to need jackets for cold October baseball, is there a better jacket than that to wear?
Look across the diamond. The New York Mets are a significantly better baseball team. It’s not just better in terms of the rotation and starting lineup, but it’s also better in terms of their burgeoning depth. Despite that, somehow, the Mets failed to address their biggest need of the offseason – third base.
J.D. Davis is the incumbent third baseman, and simply put, he has done nothing but prove he has no business playing the position at the Major League level. In his career, he has played 770.0 innings there, and he has amassed a -19 DRS. As previously put in perspective, that was worse than what Wilmer Flores posted as the position, and there was near unanimous consent Flores should never man the position again.
The Mets were well aware of this, and that’s why they seemingly went out of their way this offseason to say they were going to upgrade at third base. He said the position was “up in the air,” and the team went on what seemed to be wild goose chases for Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suarez. For all we know, they are still doing all they can to pry those players loose from their current teams.
When the Mets were unable to acquire a real third baseman before the start of Spring Training, Luis Rojas was reluctant to name anyone as the team’s third baseman. That would appear to be an indictment of Davis, especially with second base becoming vacant with Robinson Cano‘s season long suspension.
At least on the surface, it would seem Davis would keep his slot at third with Jeff McNeil becoming the everyday third baseman. However, that’s not entirely possible with Davis not being able to play the position. In fact, Davis is literally the worst fielder in the Major Leagues.
Over the past two seasons, Davis has amassed a combined -29 DRS. That includes a -17 DRS at third and a -12 DRS in left field. Just to put in perspective how bad that is, he is the only player to appear TWICE among the worst 30 fielders over the past two seasons. As we’ve seen, the Mets just can’t hide him in the field. That goes double for third.
Making Davis at third even worse is the current complexion of the Mets pitching staff. Overall, this is a heavy ground ball pitching staff. To wit, here are their GB/FB ratios since 2017:
- Marcus Stroman 2.66
- Noah Syndergaard 1.68
- Carlos Carrasco 1.35
- Taijuan Walker 1.34
- Jacob deGrom 1.34
- Joey Lucchesi 1.33
- David Peterson 1.22
- Jordan Yamamoto 0.80
Looking at the make-up of the Mets top eight starting pitching options, seven of them induce batters to hit the ball on the ground. That makes having a good defensive infield more of an imperative. Yes, Francisco Lindor goes a long way towards doing that, but by playing Davis next to him, the Mets are effectively neutralizing Lindor’s effect.
Digging deeper, the Mets are going to play Pete Alonso at first where he is not a good fielder. That means the Mets are going to trot out a ground ball staff and have the Major League worst defense at the corners. Really, this does not remotely make any sense whatsoever. Really, it’s ponderous the Mets would even consider going in this direction.
When you look at it from that perspective, Davis cannot play third everyday. It only serves to hurt the team. Ideally, the Mets would pull off that blockbuster we’ve been waiting for them to pull off all offseason to acquire a third baseman, or they need to play Luis Guillorme everyday at second pushing McNeil to third, where he is a better fielder.
No matter what the Mets do, they simply cannot make Davis the everyday third baseman. They’ve done far too much this offseason, and they’ve built their team a certain way. Allowing Davis and his defense, or lack thereof, diminish or neutralize it, makes zero to no sense.
As has been reported, Fernando Tatis, Jr. signed a 14 year $340 million contract extension with a full no trade clause. Naturally, when it comes to the Mets, the question is how exactly would this impact a potential Francisco Lindor extension.
Now, there are considerations to take into account. First, Tatis had years of arbitration which needed to be addressed in a deal like this. Tatis is also a little more than five years younger. All of these factors impact the contract.
When looking at the extension to apply to Lindor, there are two key points. The first is what Tatis will be paid entering his age 28 season.
If Tatis had not signed an extension, he would’ve been a free agent after the 2024 season. One of the sites which has the breakdown of the contract is Spotrac.
Looking at his contract at that point, it’s a 10 year $324 million deal with a $32.4 million AAV. Arguably, that’s the vicinity of an extension which Lindor could want from the Mets.
Of course, that takes Tatis from age 26 – 35. Lindor is currently 27, and he would be looking to sign as a free agent entering his age 28 season.
When Tatis enters his age 28 season, his salary jumps from $20 to $25 million. That further impacts his AAV. From age 28 – 35, Tatis’ deal is eight years $266 million. That’s an AAV of $33.25 million.
Basically, when you break it down, Tatis’ extension sets the stage for Lindor to seek a contract extension north of $30+ million a year. In fact, with Tatis making $36 million over the final six years of his deal, Lindor could reasonably seek an AAV in that ballpark.
As an aside, the Mets reportedly offered Trevor Bauer $40 million to pitch for them in 2021 which opt outs in future years. It’s hard to unring that bell if you’re a player and his agent when negotiating a deal with the Mets.
It’s also difficult to unring the $35 million AAV the Mets were willing to pay Bauer if he had signed the contract and opted in all three years.
When it comes to Lindor, he’s a far superior player to Bauer. He’s a future Hall of Famer as well. It’s going to be extremely difficult for the Mets to argue Lindor is worth less than Bauer.
Given track record, it’s also difficult to argue Lindor should be paid less than Tatis. Again, that means the starting point for the Mets and Lindor is a contract north of $30 million per year, and when all is said and done, he could very well be pushing $40 million.
That’s where the Tatis extension put the ballpark of a Lindor one. The Bauer offer makes it all the more difficult for the Mets. Whether the Mets get to that point remains to be seen, but that said, the Mets had to be prepared to do that when they pulled off this trade.
With pitchers and catchers reporting today for the New York Mets, it is officially the beginning of Spring Training. This is an important time not just because it is the unofficial start of the 2021 baseball season, but also because the clock is officially ticking on the Mets trying to extend Michael Conforto.
This is Conforto’s last season before entering free agency. While Conforto has publicly stated he is open to signing an extension with the Mets, he has also indicated he wants this matter resolved one way or another by Opening Day. Put another way, Conforto doesn’t want negotiations to be a distraction during the season, and as such, if he is not extended by the start of the season, he will test free agency.
The question for Conforto is what exactly that extension would look like. For a point of reference, George Springer just signed a six year $150 million deal ($25 million AAV) with the Toronto Blue Jays. That was a deal the Mets were apparently unwilling to match, and it was a deal with exceeded Sandy Alderson’s preference for deals five years or shorter.
Now, there are differences between Springer and Conforto. Springer is arguably the better player, but he is also four years older. There’s also the matter of Conforto taking the mantle from David Wright in his being a beloved homegrown player and a leader in the clubhouse. Overall, when it comes to Conforto, he checks all the boxes from a team perspective.
That’s not to say the Mets should extend Conforto. For starters, the organization also has to have extension talks with Francisco Lindor. They also need to do the same with Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman. After this year, they will have to do the same with Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and at some point, Jacob deGrom. It is fair to question where extending Conforto lies in the pecking order.
There are some questions with Conforto. While he exploded at the plate last year returning to his pre-shoulder injury levels, he declined significantly in the field. While he was a 1 DRS in right, he was a -5 OAA which was a steep drop-off from previous seasons. Part of that was Conforto’s sprint speed taking a significant hit from 27.5 ft/sec to 26.8.
What is incumbent on the Mets now is determining how much of that is due to the disjointed nature of the 2020 season, and how much of that is the first step in decline. It’s not an easy answer, but it is one the Mets need to reasonably be able to decipher during Spring Training, which just began today.
Overall, extending Conforto would be extremely popular with the fans, and it will likely be very popular in the Mets clubhouse. There seems to be the appetite for all involved to get it done. The question now is whether they can. With Opening Day on April 1, Conforto and the Mets have 43 days to get it done.
When the New York Mets obtain a star, some have some trepidation. There are bad memories associated with the 1992 Mets as well as with future Hall of Famers like Roberto Alomar and All-Stars like Carlos Baerga.
Yes, those names were specifically chosen. They were not just chosen because they were great players before joining the Mets. They were also great Cleveland Indians players traded to the Mets.
What does that have to do with Francisco Lindor? In reality, absolutely nothing.
Alomar was 34 when the Mets obtained him. Baerga was hitting .267/.302/.396 with the Indians when the Mets obtained him.
Lindor is the best shortstop in baseball. In fact, since his debut in 2015, only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have a higher WAR. That’s it. That’s the list.
No one asked if Trout should get the $426.5 million he received. There wasn’t a question about Betts’ $365 million extension. Yet, somehow, we see fans and articles question whether Lindor should receive an extension at all.
Really, it’s nonsense hand-wringing. It’s assuming everything goes wrong for the Mets. It’s remembering only the bad while conveniently forgetting Keith Hernandez, Mike Piazza, and even Johan Santana.
The Mets traded for those stars and gave them extensions. Hernandez led to the best stretch in Mets history and the team’s second World Series.
Piazza set records for homers as a catcher, led the Mets to consecutive postseasons for the first time in their history, the homer after 9/11, and he became the second player to wear a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Santana had the last great moment in Shea Stadium history, and to date, he’s thrown the only no-hitter in Mets history.
The point is for every Alomar, there’s a Piazza. For every Jason Bay or Bobby Bonilla, there’s a Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson.
There’s also the matter of next year’s free agent class. Lindor should find himself the biggest target, but Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, and Trevor Story will also be available.
Do the Mets want to sort through this class and have the Los Angeles Dodgers run up the bidding like they did with Trevor Bauer, or the way the Toronto Blue Jays did with George Springer. That’s nothing to say of the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox who are resetting under the luxury tax to position themselves to attack free agency next year.
That’s whenever free agency does begin. Remember, the CBA expires at the end of the season, which very well may lead to a strike or lockout. In those circumstances, it makes it all the more difficult to navigate your way through the offseason.
Regardless, all of that distracts from the main point. Francisco Lindor is a top three player in the sport and future Hall of Famer who is in his prime. Instead of inventing reasons to try to justify not extending him, we should all just demand the Mets extend him.