Dilson Herrera
Today is the deadline for Daniel Murphy to accept or reject the $15.8 million qualifying offer. While I anticipate he will reject it, the possibility remains that he could accept it:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/665195238332452864
Sooner or later, the Mets will have to give the second base job to Dilson Herrera. He’s got the potential to be an All Star one day. He hit .327/.387/.511 in AAA this year. He might not have been ready when he was called up this year, but he’s only 21 years old. He may need another year to be ready. Another year of Murphy helps that.
This will be David Wright‘s first full season after his spinal stenosis diagnosis. We will find out how much he can play. If he’s limited in how much he can play, Murphy has shown he’s more than capable of playing at third for a stretch. It’s possible the Mets could let Wright go on the DL to rest permitting Murphy to play third and get Herrera comes time at second to see if he’s ready. Having Murphy around another year is a nice insurance policy.
It would also give Murphy more time to work with Kevin Long. I’m not expecting Murphy to repeat Murphtober, but it should be noted he had the most homeruns he’s ever had. He did this while hitting 38 doubles, the second highest he’s ever had. It was the highest slugging percentage he’s ever had over a full year. Another year with the Mets should let us know if it was a career year or something else.
I can understand not wanting Murphy on a multi-year deal. He’s still not good defensively at second. You might be paying him for postseason performance rather than what he has been his whole career. However, on a one year deal? It makes too much sense.
I’m not worried about it “ruining” the Mets offseason plans. The bullpen is in good shape. The rotation should be better with a full year of Steven Matz, no Bartolo Colon, and Zack Wheeler scheduled to return. The shortstop options out there aren’t better than Wilmer Flores. The CF market is full of players who shouldn’t play in center. Therefore, Juan Lagares is probably their best option. So with that said, how does Murphy “ruin” their offseason?
It doesn’t. Murphy taking the qualifying offer is the Mets best case scenario. As Sandy Alderson stated himself, you only make the offer if you want the player back. Well, the offer was made. Hopefully, Murphy comes back for 2016.
Through everything that has happened with Ruben Tejada this postseason, one thing gets lost in the shuffle. He’s not a good SS and he’s starting to get expensive. With these things in mind, he’s not a lock to return in 2016:
Also, it doesn't sound as if Ruben Tejada is a slam dunk to be tendered a contract. Could be Matt Reynolds for that spot, competing for SS.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) November 12, 2015
Tejada is expected to receive $2.5 million in arbitration. He cannot be a free agent until 2018. He may have poor range (-5.6 UZR), but he catches everything hit to him. He’s a career .255/.340/.323 hitter. Long story, short. He’s a major leaguer. Maybe not a great one, but a major leaguer nevertheless.
It also means he’s as asset. Yes, this is the second time he’s broken his right leg. I know he’s not what everyone imagined he would be when the other shortstop left in free agency. However, he’s a competent player who is not making that much money. Last time the Mets made a penny wise, pound foolish decision like this was Justin Turner, and we know how that worked out.
Tejada is about to turn 27, so you can argue he’s about to be entering the prime of his career. The Mets seem to be letting Daniel Murphy walk and installing Dilson Herrera at second. If Herrera isn’t ready, Wilmer Flores (the lesser of all evils at SS) would be the most likely candidate to play second. Except he can’t in that situation because the Mets non-tendered Tejada. Also, what happens if Flores repeats his early season SS struggles?
I’m sure the Mets will look to get someone to replace Tejada, but it’s slim pickings. Do you really want to see Jimmy Rollins or Alexei Ramirez there everyday? It’s one thing to bring them in and give them a chance, it’s another to have to rely upon them. This more than anything is the reason why Tejada is so important.
The Mets need to keep Tejada.
I’m sure I’m not breaking any new ground when I say the Mets are not going to re-sign Daniel Murphy. However, it wasn’t until I read the tea leaves that I lost hope.
Look who the Mets have interest in signing as free agents:
My sense of the free agent CF types who are on the Mets’ radar at this point: Span, Fowler, Parra.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
They’re going after two left-handed and one switch hitting CF. Sure, it’s an indictment on how the Mets feel about Juan Lagares because you can’t expect these players to all of a sudden sign on to become a platoon player. It’s also a sign the Mets are not re-signing Murphy.
When and if the Mets lose Murphy, they’re losing a left-handed second baseman and presumably replacing him with one of two right-handed bats: Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. This will make the Mets lineup right handed dominant with only three lefty hitters. This takes away the L-R-L switching in the lineup that Terry Collibs likes to do.
To keep the L-R-L in place the simple solution would be to keep Murphy. He’s seeking comparable money to the free agent CF. He’s insurance against David Wright breaking down, Lucas Duda slumping, Herrera not being ready, and/or Ruben Tejada being physically ready and able to play shortstop.
No, the Mets have announced they want to go with a left-handed CF. That’s how they’ll keep the L-R-L in the lineup. Things could change, but I doubt it. It’s a shame because Murphy was a good Met and the CF options aren’t that great.
So I will begin to make my piece with Murphy going to another team. I wish him the best.
Earlier, I had a case as to why I believed the Mets should try to re-sign Daniel Murphy. I think the Mets should bring him back. However, there are valid reasons why you don’t bring him back.
He’s not a good defensive second baseman, and that’s the only place to play him right now and in the near future. He’s prone to a base running gaffe or two. Re-signing him will be very expensive insurance option for David Wright, especially when you already have Wilmer Flores. You don’t want to create a log jam on the roster and in the infield for when Dilson Herrera is ready to play everyday in the majors.
Whatever the decision, I hope the process happens quickly. The longer it goes on, the more awkward it becomes for everyone. As a result, more questions get asked about why the Mets arent interested, or what’s wrong with Murphy that team’s aren’t interested? It’s better that the process happens quickly. The overall goal is to avoid the he said – she said that followed after Jose Reyes signed with the Marlins. The Mets were good to Murphy, and in return, Murphy was good to the Mets. There’s no need for anyone to look bad here.
As a parting gift, the Mets should get a first round compensation pick, and Murphy should get a huge contract.
The Mets have many tough offseason decisions to make. Right now the most pressing decision is Daniel Murphy. The Mets have until Friday to offer Murphy a qualifying offer of a one year $15.8 million offer.
In my opinion, the Mets need to offer Murphy the qualifying offer. The worst case scenario is Murphy accepts the deal. Yes, you could argue he’s not worth $15.8 million. However, it’s a slight one-year overpay considering he was projected to receive a 4 year $52 million contract ($13 million a year). That was before his huge postseason. In any event, it seems the Mets will extend the offer.
Based upon the prospective offers Murpy will receiving, he’s likely to reject the qualifying offer. If so, and Murphy signs elsewhere, the Mets get another team’s first round pick (top 10 protected). If and when he rejects it, things will begin to get interesting because the Mets need to make a tough decision. Do you re-sign Murphy?
If he departs, Murphy will be leaving a sizeable gap behind him. He was the number three hitter on a pennant winner. On a high strikeout team, he is a contact hitter. His power has increased while working with Kevin Long.
Murphy is also the starting second baseman. Now, second is a position where the Mets may have options. The first option is the 21 year old Dilson Herrera. Reading all the scouting reports, he’s a younger Murphy with potential to be more. Herrera has hit at every level. He has more speed. He is raw defensively and has the tools be be good at second, but right now he isn’t.
Now, Herrera struggled during his call-up this year. He hit .211/.311/.367. It doesn’t mean he won’t eventually hit at the big league level. It may just mean it was a short sample size or he’s not ready. In the event he’s not ready, the Mets could elect to shift Wilmer Flores from SS to 2B.
For his career, Murphy has hit .288/.331/.424. His UZR at second was -1.3, which was by far his best year. In the two years prior, he was around a -5.0 player, which means he’s a below average defensive player, which is a shock to no one.
This past year, his first full season in the majors, Flores hit .265/.302/.425. Overall, Flores is not the hitter Murphy is, even if he shows some promise. His UZR in his limited time at second was 1.7, which means he’s average defensively, better than Murphy, but still average. It also leaves a gap at SS. Flores improved as the year progressed. Additionally, we still don’t know how well Ruben Tejada is going to bounce back.
Despite possibly being the best second base option, the Mets may benefit from his versatility. Murphy can play first and third. With David Wright‘s back, he’s limited. He can’t play more than four games in a row. Also, Lucas Duda is prone to some dry spells. Murphy could offset the gaps created by Wright’s back and Duda’s dry spells.
On the flip side, fellow Mets free agent Kelly Johnson does the same thing. He has the added benefit of playing the corner OF positions. He’s also a left handed bat like Murphy. He’s a .251/.331/.424 hitter, which again is worse than Murphy. However, Johnson is seen as a bench bat that won’t cost much money.
That’s the thing. Johnson is a bench player that won’t cost much money. The Mets should bring him back, but it shouldn’t have any impact upon their Murphy decision.
The main reason I keep thinking that Murphy needs to come back is the fact that the Mets just lost the World Series. They were so close. We know the pitching will be there, and it will be even better. However, the Mets have to keep a competitive offensive team on the field.
We don’t know what the Mets are going to get from Wright over 162 games. Many assume Yoenis Cespedes is all but gone. The Mets will be losing their third and fourth place hitters. Why should anyone expect this team to be any better next year?
There’s not really any upgrades over Murphy on the market. If you won’t spend on Murphy, why are we to believe they’ll sign someone like Ben Zobrist. Yes, Zobrist is the better player now, but he’s going to get a similar contract. Also, he’s five years older than Murphy. Murphy is in his prime. Zobrist is close to retirement.
If someone steps up and offers Murphy a stupid amount of money, you have to let him walk. He’s a nice, not great, player. I’m qualifying a stupid amount as a contract around four years $70 million. Eventually, you’re going to have to pay these pitchers, and Murphy can’t stand in the way of that.
However, if the market is reasonable, Murphy has to return. Hopefully, the qualifying offer will keep it reasonable. I say hope because the market rarely is. I mean, did you see the contract some team gave Michael Cuddyer last year? That’s the thing. All it takes is one team to do something irrational to turn Murphy into an ex-Met.
I’m hoping it doesn’t happen. Im hoping the Mets have the money. If they don’t, maybe they can offset some of the cost by getting a Chapstick sponsorship deal?
All jokes aside, the Mets need to re-sign Murphy.
Remember when #PanicCity was a thing? I do too. It was justified then. When Sandy Alderson bestowed the moniker on Mets fans, here was the previous night’s starting lineup:
- Curtis Granderson
- Ruben Tejada
- Lucas Duda
- Michael Cuddyer
- Wilmer Flores
- Darrell Ceciliani
- Kevin Plawecki
- Jacob deGrom
- Dilson Herrera
Look at that lineup. The number two and five hitters rotate in the eighth spot, at least until Tejada went down. The number three hitter bats fifth. The cleanup hitter is on the bench. The seventh hitter is a backup. The sixth and ninth hitters are not on the playoff roster.
This is a different team than that one. This team was one out away from winning Game One. They had a bad game against an erratic pitcher, who has pitched well against the Mets in the past. Why must it be more than that?
We just watched our young pitchers now down an incredible Cubs offense. We know good pitching beats good hitting. It’s the reason the Mets are in the World Series. This isn’t the same old Mets offense. They can actually hit now.
The Mets are getting a needed day off to collect themselves. They’re going to set things straight. They’re going out tomorrow, and they’re going to play their best game of the year. Then they’ll go out in Game 4 and do the same thing, and so on and so on.
Ya Gotta Believe!
Today is widely known as Back to Future Day because this was the day Marty McFly went to 2015:
Watching Back to the Future Part II in theaters, I remember thinking 2015 was so far away. I remember watching the Mets during this year, I thought the World Series was so far away. Let’s travel back to see the Mets starting lineups:
April 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Braves 1
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
May 21, 2015 Mets 5 – Cardinals 0
- Juan Lagares CF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- John Mayberry, Jr. RF
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
June 21, 2015 Braves 1 – Mets 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Juan Lagares CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Michael Cuddyer LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Dilson Herrera 2B
- Eric Campbell 3B
- Matt Harvey P
July 21, 2015 Mets 7 – Nationals 2
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Ruben Tejada SS
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
- Jacob deGrom P
- Juan Lagares CF
August 21, 2015 Mets 14 – Rockies 9
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Michael Conforto LF
- Bartolo Colon P
September 21, 2015 Mets 4 – Braves 0
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Jon Niese P
October 21, 2015 (estimated)
- Curtis Granderson RF
- David Wright 3B
- Daniel Murphy 2B
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Michael Conforto LF
- Wilmer Flores SS
- Steven Matz P
Looking over these lineups, it was not until August that anyone could believe the Mets had an offense that could be capable of winning in October. Now, Mets fans believe this team can’t be beat. I hoping that’s the case tonight.
I want to see the Mets Back to the World Series.
I’m sure you’ll hear several times over the next week that the Mets are 0-7 against the Cubs. It’s not indicative of what will happen in the NLCS.
First off, the 1988 Mets beat the Dodgers 10 out of 11 times. Secondly, this is a completely different Mets team. Here is a breakdown of the players who have played against the Cubs this year:
Juan Lagares 1-9 with 1 BB, 1 double, 2Ks
John Mayberry, Jr. 2-12 with 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 K
Daniel Murphy 9-25 with 1 BB, 3 doubles
Michael Cuddyer 2-17 with 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
Lucas Duda 7-25 with 3 R, 2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 HBP, 1 double, 1 HR, 12 K
Wilmer Flores 4-23 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Kevin Plawecki 3-17 with 2 RBI, 4 K
Curtis Granderson 5-24 with 3 BBs, 2 RBI, 1 double, 6 K
Dilson Herrera 2-11 with 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Ruben Tejada 1-18 with 1 BB, 8 K
Johnny Monell 1-8 with 4 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-7 with 2 K
Anthony Recker 2-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K
Darrell Ceciliani 1-7 with 3 K
Eric Campbell 0-3 with 1 BB, 1 K
Overall, the Mets had a combined 70 ABs from players not on the playoff roster. They went 9-70 against the Cubs this year. There were an additional 50 ABs from players on the playoff roster, who are either on the bench or are platoon players. Those players went 6-50. Of a total of 171 ABs, 120 of them went to players who will not be in the starting lineup in the NLCS. Therefore, how can you glean anything from these games.
As you may notice, there are no ABs from David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, or Travis d’Arnaud. That’s half of the position players in the current Mets starting lineup. This is more than enough to turn an 0-7 deficit to a winning record.
I’m confident the Mets changes will be enough to make it to the World Series.
There appears to be two types of Mets fans: (1) those who love Daniel Murphy; and (2) those who don’t. I’m in the former camp. Gary Cohen is in the latter (full audio).
Now, it is way too early to do a postmortem on the Mets season. It’s too early. There’s still an important Game 5. However, I can’t fault Joe & Evan for addressing the topic with Gary Cohen. You don’t get him everyday, so when you get him, you want to address everything with him. That includes addressing the free agency situations of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy.
I don’t disagree with Gary regarding how the Mets will treat the Cespedes and Murphy situations. I agree that neither one will be back. Where I disagree with Gary is his statements about Murphy.
First, he called Murphy a “net negative.” Frankly, that’s nonsense. I understand Murphy’s flaws. He’s not a high .OBP guy. He sometimes makes curious fielding and baserunning mistakes. However, calling Murphy a net negative is a gross overstatement.
If you’re using WAR, he’s generally been between a 2.5 – 3.1 player, which means he’s a solid starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at. If you’re using weighted runs created, or wRC+, his range is between 107-126 in the years he’s been a starter meaning he’s an above average player. Basically, Murphy’s a good player; not a “net negative.”
My other dispute with Gary is that Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera can take Murphy’s spot. First of all neither of them is the hitter Murphy is now. Murphy is a career .288/.331/.424 hitter. This year he hit .281/.322/.449. This year Flores hit .263/.295/.408, and Herrera hit .211/.311/.367. These two are young (22 and 20 respectively) with potential, but they’re not in Murphy’s league as a hitter yet.
This is a playoff team now. Next year regardless of their free agency maneuvers, they will be a possible contending team with their pitching staff. It would be better to have some proven hitters like Murphy. It would also be nice to have Murphy as an insurance policy.
This year the SS situation was never fully resolved. It seemed like Ruben Tejada finally wrestled the position away until Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide.” It’s the second time he’s broken his right leg. Flores may be forced to play more SS than anyone would like next year.
Also, who knows about David Wright? The Mets want to limit him to four games in a row. That means you need someone capable of playing third base on a semi-regular basis. It would be preferable to have someone like Murphy who can move other there and competently play the position.
That doesn’t mean I think the Mets should give Murphy a huge free agent deal. Rather, I would start by offering him the $15.8 million qualifying offer. If he accepts it, great. You have him for one year while you wait for Herrera to develop and you find out about Wright’s back over a 162 game season. It’s an expensive insurance policy, but it may be a necessary one.
If he rejects it, you at least get a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere. Alternatively, it will limit is market allowing the Mets to negotiate with him on their terms. With all that said, I don’t want to be talking about this. I want to talk about his two homeruns this postseason. I want to talk about Game Five. I want to be talking about the NLCS.
So, let’s focus on what’s important here. That’s Game Five. The only Murphy discussion now should be how he can help the Mets win that game.
Yesterday, the Mets announced the players they are putting on the taxi squad: Eric Young, Jr., Anthony Recker, Logan Verrett, Eric Campbell, and Bobby Parnell. I think we can separate the remaining players into three categories: (1) players definitely on the roster; (2) players who are in consideration for the roster; and (3) players who are just being sent home. The players definitely on the roster has already been addressed. Here’s the other two categories:
Players under Consideration
Juan Uribe – the Mets want him on the roster, but it does not appear he’s healthy enough to play. I hope that August 23rd pinch hitting appearance was worth it.
Steven Matz – had he not slept on a couch, he would’ve been on the roster. Now the Mets have their fingers crossed he can pitch.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – he seems to be the front runner for Uribe’s spot. He plays all three OF positions, has speed, and has some pop in his bat. He’s had a rough year, but he’s had some big hits since returning to the Mets.
Dilson Herrera – he’s the Mets best defensive infielder even if he only plays 2B. He’s got potential offensively and defensively. He has not realized his potential yet, but he’s still a right handed bat with pop going into a series with good left handed pitching.
Erik Goeddel – he seems to be a favorite to get a spot in the bullpen if Matz can’t pitch. In limited time, he’s shown a great splitter which has helped him with a 9.2 K/9. He could help with a strikeout in a big spot.
Sean Gilmartin – he’s been the long man, but he has reverse splits with a series with a series with huge left-handed bats. His spot is tenuous mostly with the presence of Colon, Niese, and possibly Matz on the roster.
Players Done for the Year
Johnny Monell – the Mets made their choice with Recker as the third catcher.
Carlos Torres – he took the ball whenever he was asked until he got hurt. He had a skill that helps in the regular season, but he has no room on the playoff roster.
Dario Alvarez – when he finally got a chance to pitch, he was effective. He got a huge strikeout of Bryce Harper back when the division was still in doubt. He go hurt, fought his way back, and he was ineffective.
Eric O’Flaherty – there’s not enough words to describe how bad he’s been, so I’ll keep it short. He’s horrendous.
There are still important decisions to be made. I know a lot of it hinges on Matz. I anticipate this will be a tight series, and these final choices may have a real impact. I hope they pick the right players.