Daniel Vogelbach
If there was anyone who knew what the job entailed, it was Buck Showalter. You are supposed to face the brunt on the criticisms even if they are not of your own doing. You also get credit for things whether or not you deserved it.
In 2022, Showalter was happy to get all of the credit as he won his fourth Manager of the Year Award. He won the award despite his team having an unprecedented late season collapse.
In 2023, things did not go as well. As we saw in the season review on The Athletic, Showalter certainly deserved his fair share of the blame. It painted Showalter as out of touch with a team who didn’t work hard enough and made far too many mental lapses. While that might’ve been the case in 2022, that typically has not been Showalter’s modus operandi throughout his career.
Then again, the Mets are strange. You can thrive with the New York Yankees, but as we saw with Curtis Granderson, it still took a year to adapt to being a Met. For some reason, this team, regardless of ownership, is just a different burden than any other Major League team. With that, we do see people acting out of character, or maybe, their real character coming to light.
Showalter knew things were bad during the season, and that’s why he made a plea to the reporters to help him keep his job. We did see reporters take up the call on multiple occasions, but in the end, they were unsuccessful. Reporters having Showalter’s back is no surprise as he has always had a good relationship with the media, which honestly, was one of the reasons why he was hired in the first place.
With the hiring of David Stearns, it was definitely the end for Showalter, and he would announce his Mets tenure was over before the last game of the season. As a result, we would see Showalter get a tribute from the team and fans.
https://x.com/MBrownstein89/status/1708560255687196795?s=20
The team was careful not to trash him either directly or through back channels. They let him end his Mets tenure with their gratitude for the past two years. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough for Showalter.
There was the absurd charge from the media that the Mets mishandled the firing. Then, there were reports Pete Alonso wanted to go to Steve Cohen directly to voice his displeasure with the decision. That report was gilding the lily a bit as we know the players on this Mets team loved Showalter.
https://x.com/NYPost_Mets/status/1708975007295046124?s=20
However, now, we are starting to get into the problematic areas. Mike Puma of the New York Post had an “unnamed source” who said Showalter disagreed with Billy Eppler over Eppler’s insistence that Showalter kept Daniel Vogelbach in the lineup. We know the source was Showalter or someone very close to him, and it is obvious why he used Vogelbach as he was a lightning rod with the fanbase this season.
Much of what was said doesn’t pass the smell test. The argument Showalter viewed DH as a partial rest position runs in opposition to his 22 year managerial career. Showalter always had a DH for most of his career. Just go ask Danny Tartabull, Rafael Palmeiro, Pedro Alvarez, and yes, Vogelbach.
It would also have us believe Showalter was the one who wanted to play the rookies instead of the veterans. Showalter has always been a manager who plays the veterans over the young players. This year is a classic example.
Put aside his starting Vogelbach over Mark Vientos most games. When Vientos was finally in the lineup against a left-handed starter, Showalter would quickly go to his bench to bring in Vogelbach when a right-handed reliever was in the game to face Vientos. Again, this is what Showalter always was.
However, this is all besides the point. Maybe, all of those non-analytically driven lineups were made by the front office and not Showalter. Maybe Showalter really was doing what was told despite it being in direction opposition to the millions of dollars Steve Cohen is pouring into the analytics program.
Perhaps, Eppler was the one to blame here and in other circumstances. That’s not difficult to believe. However, what is difficult to believe is Showalter and his camp would air their dirty laundry after his termination.
Showalter was happy taking credit when it was a 101 win team that garnered him awards. When it was time to take the blame, he asked for the media’s help, and now, he is telling everyone he wasn’t to blame. In retrospect, maybe this isn’t too surprising as Showalter once told Bill Pennington of the New York Times that George Steinbrenner attempted to rehire him right after the Yankees hired Joe Torre.
In the end, Showalter just wants us to know he was great, and nothing was his fault. It was the Mets, who threw him a lifeline back into the game, who were to blame. That same Mets organization has been careful to give him all the credit and none of the blame. In the end, that is what makes Showalter’s behavior all the more unprofessional.
As had been detailed here when the Mets fired Luis Rojas, Buck Showalter was never the right man to manage the New York Mets. When you’re looking to overall your organization top to bottom to be more analytically driven like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays, you can’t hire someone who never was willing to adapt his style of managing to suit the modern game.
Assuredly, there were people who loved him. He talked a good game. He kept the media in check even despite the Mets collapse of yesteryear. A lesser respected manager would have routinely mocked for the way he handled the Joe Musgrove glistening ear situation in the deciding game three.
Perhaps, that was also the result of low expectations and an unwillingness to recognize just how good and deep the 2022 Mets roster was. Certainly, that was a driving force behind his winning Manager of the Year.
As for this year, he and the Mets were a bit snake bit. Edwin Díaz was injured during the World Baseball Classic. José Quintana had a cancer scare and bone graft surgery. Starling Marte never fully healed from offseason surgery. Justin Verlander was injured to start the season.
There was the Mets inability to adapt to the new rules right away. Max Scherzer had difficulty adapting to the old rules. The list goes on and on with that article from The Athletic doing him no favors in terms of just how ill suited he was for the job this season.
That’s not to say Showalter is too old to adjust. That’s unfair and unwarranted. He still has a sharp mind, and he knows what he knows. The issue is he was taught to manage a certain way, and that worked wonders for decades. He has just been unwilling to change.
Part of the issue is his apparent loyalty and affinity for older players. In the case of Tommy Pham, the Mets were better for it as Pham had a good year, and it led to a great trade at the deadline. However, in the case of Daniel Vogelbach, it severely damaged the team in the short term and the long term.
Maybe the Mets were always going to hire David Stearns. Certainly, it didn’t seem like an accident Craig Counsell‘s contract was up the same time as Stearns’, and Counsell wasn’t looking to sign a contract extension with the Milwaukee Brewers.
To that end, it does seem like Showalter was hired for two years with a chance to force himself upon Stearns. Certainly, if Showalter was more like Dusty Baker in his willingness to balance his strengths while accepting the analytics more, perhaps we would have seen Showalter remain on the job.
However, for better or worse, Showalter wanted to manage this team like he wanted to manage. In the case of players like Francisco Lindor, they loved him for it. Perhaps, they would’ve loved him more if he changed even a little bit, and the Mets won the World Series.
All this said, Showalter does deserve respect for taking this job and not embarrassing the Mets organization in the process. He did come at a time when things were going sideways, and he did in fact restore some public credibility, and he did keep the media pressure off in ways Bobby Valentine and Willie Randolph (two better Mets managers) ever could.
He deserved the dignity of being able to end it publicly on his terms. He earned the respect of his players, and he does deserve some gratitude from the fans, especially with all the damage that had been done to the organization since Brodie Van Wagenen and Mickey Callaway did, and the shadow it cast until Showalter’s hiring.
In all honesty, hopefully, we will see Showalter get one more crack at managing. Hopefully, like Baker, he will accept the game has changed, and we can see his strenghts carry him to that elusive World Series title. With that, he may eventually get into the Hall of Fame.
Even though it was something that needed to happen months ago, all four of the Baby Mets (there needs to be a better nickname than this) are finally on the roster. When looking at each player, it is difficult to grade them out partially because Buck Showalter hasn’t been too eager to play them, and for some reason, he thinks it is more important to play his older players against the teams fighting for the postseason.
With all the caveats and mind and with some injury issues, now is a good time to take a look at where the Baby Mets stand in their first real season in the Major Leagues:
Francisco Álvarez
Stats: .215/.292/.435, 9 2B, 22 HR, 51 RBI
When you look at Álvarez, you see a star in the making. Defensively, he has been phenomenal and has been one of the best framers in all of baseball. He’s been better than advertised, and you see the pitchers praise of him was not all team driven propogranda.
At the plate, he was a middle of the order hitter through July, but his production has completely fallen off. There are reasons for this. First and foremost, he’s never come close to playing these many games, and as a corollary to this, the Mets are playing him more sporadically to combat the fatigue that has set in.
In the end, he looks like a cornerstone player. Don’t let him limping to the end as he’s far surpassed his games played high fool you. We should see him as an All-Star and maybe even the MVP conversation as soon as next season.
Brett Baty
Stats: 208/.279/.314. 11 2B, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB
The short answer is the Mets failed Baty. He should have been on the Opening Day roster. He was called up quickly, and in the beginning, he was terrific hitting ..319/.385/.511 over his first 15 games.
Then, disaster set in. Over his next 71 games, he hit .195/.270/.294. He regressed in every aspect of his game, including his defense where he went from a position OAA to a -4 OAA.
After waiting way too long to demote Baty, he went to Syracuse where he began hitting again. Over 17 games, he hit .246/.329/.493. After that he was promoted back to the majors, where he has hit .143/.172/.143 since the most recent call-up.
Behind the problems are a 27.9 K% and a 49.1 GB%. He’s hit the ball hard at times, but nowhere near at the rate he did in the minors. Moreover, he’s just not barreling the ball up.
Sooner rather than later, the Mets need to figure out the disconnect between the Mets and Syracuse. That applies to both offense and defense. More than that, they need to be less tied down to the notion Baty is the third baseman of the present and maybe even the future.
Ronny Mauricio
Stats: .313/.353/.375, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 4 SB
When looking at Mauricio, you have to question why the hell were the Mets keeping him in the minors for so long. The answer is complicated as there were issues with defense away from short, and Mauricio never did develop any plate discipline. There was also a minor ankle injury.
That said, Mauricio has been unfazed by the promotion. In fact, he’s doing what he did in Triple-A, albeit without the same power numbers . . . yet. Keep in mind, in his first at-bat with the Mets, he had the hardest hit ball in team history during the StatCast Era.
He’s looked awkward at second, but he does have a 1 OAA (small sample size alert). On the bases, while he’s sprint speed is rather pedestrian, he’s stealing bases and taking the extra base when he has the chance.
It’s way too soon to try to guess what he is as a player in the long or short term. The only thing we can say is he needed to put up here instead of the likes of Danny Mendick back when the Mets were trying to salvage this season.
Mark Vientos
Stats: .199/.245/.325, 5 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 13 RBI
Look, the Mets have gone out of their way time and again to let Vientos (and the fans) know how little they value him. In his first call-up, despite a hot start, he was sat because of the whims of Showalter and the need to get Daniel Vogelbach‘s non-producing bat into the lineup.
Like with many young players, he struggled with the limited playing time, and he was eventually sent back down. As a result, he has underperformed, and we still don’t quite know what he can be.
What we do know is he hits the ball very hard, and he shows power to the opposite field. He does have a high strikeout rate. He’s been better than advertised at third even if he’s not really all that good there. He has impressed in limited time at first, but Pete Alonso is there, so forget that.
In the end, one of the biggest mistakes the Mets made in this lost season was not using their time to figure out what Vientos could be. Part of that could be the injured wrist. Most of it was allowing their manager get in the way of what was best for the franchise in the short and long term.
2024 Outlook
The Mets can do a number of things this offseason, which will forever change the outlook of the roster and this group of young players. That all said, it’s clear Álvarez will be the Opening Day catcher.
At the moment, barring some precipitous drop-off, Mauricio will factor into the Opening Day roster as the team’s everyday second baseman. That will likely push Jeff McNeil to left field.
After that, if the Mets were being smart, it would be a third base competition between Baty and Vientos. If the Mets are being honest, Vientos should be ahead, but it seems they made their mind up two years ago that Baty was the guy. Perhaps, that will all change when the team finally hires a President of Baseball Operations.
The New York Mets can call it what they want, but they had a fire sale where they overhauled the organization. Finally, they built the type of farm system which can create the sustainable winner Steve Cohen coveted when he first purchased the team.
Saying the quiet part out loud, the next step in the Mets plan is to lose enough games to get a top six pick in the draft. Put in other words, the Mets are tanking. They need to tank because if they have a pick outside the top six they will drop 10 spots in draft position due to their payroll.
For the Mets, they now have to decide how they want to tank. Do they want to tank while failing to put a representative and competitive product on the field? Do they want to best use this time to get get a look at and develop young players? Or, do they just want to be horrendous and go through the motions?
Checking into the Mets series finale against the Kansas City Royals, Buck Showalter had his old Baltimore Orioles buddy DJ Stewart batting second. Rafael Ortega was in center. It was at least the first game since the trade deadline Danny Mendick, who played eight of the last nine, wasn’t in the starting lineup.
Stewart and Mendick are 29 years old. Ortega is 32. Up until this point in their careers, none of these players have been able to stick on Major League rosters. Given their age, it is fair to question whether that will ever happen .
Being fair to Stewart, he has made the most of his second chance. You could argue he could carve out a role in the Mets for the next year or two. That goes double with Daniel Vogelbach likely being gone after this year. However, you cannot say the same of Mendick or Ortega.
For an example of what the Mets should be doing, we can look to Jonathan Araúz. He just turned 25, and he was once thought of as a top prospect with the Boston Red Sox organization. There is real value in getting a long look at him to determine if he has a future with the Mets in a utility role.
There is dignity and a purpose getting a long look at Araúz. The same could be said about taking a look at Ronny Mauricio and letting him work with the Mets coaching staff to let them weigh in on whether his future is at second or any one of the three outfield positions.
Luke Ritter is having a big year in the minors, and he will be Rule 5 eligible again this offseason. Jose Peroza will also be Rule 5 eligible. There are others in the organization. Arguably, one of these two could be taken in the draft.
If you may be in a position where you are forced to add them, why not take a look now? The same could be said of some relievers like Dedniel Núñez, who was already once taken in the Rule 5 Draft.
The overriding point here is the Mets have young prospects having big years. There is nothing wrong with giving them a look at the Major League level. If they are drowning, send them down, and let them be better for the experience. You can get an evaluation from the Major League coaching staff. If you’re not impressed, you have more information at your disposal as you move on from them.
Overall, you are going to lose as many games (perhaps more) than you will be with Mendick, Ortega, and Stewart. However, you will be furthering your organizations goals. Mostly, you are giving your fans something to see who have stuck with you during this disappointing season, and you hope will be there next year as you change course from your past offseason strategies.
At the moment, no one should be making a big deal out of beating the New York Yankees. They are without Aaron Judge, and they’re reeling.
Since the Citi Field iteration of the Subway Series, they’re 14-18 dropping to last place in the AL East. Of course, that makes them a much better team than the New York Mets.
Speaking of the Mets, they’ve been nearly unwatchable. There is just so much wrong you don’t even know where to begin. However, on a night where the Mets walloped the Yankees 9-3, you begin to dream again.
In that 9-3 win, you saw exactly what you expected this Mets season to be. It started with Justin Verlander, who was dominant over six shutout innings.
While he was dominating, the offense was clicking. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor each had three hit games with two of Alonso’s being homers.
Alonso is red hot at the plate after struggling once he came off the IL. He’s not the only Met heating up with Jeff McNeil’s bat coming to life.
McNeil had a two hit night. He now has a four game hitting streak and has a hit in six of his last eight games. He’s getting closer to being what he would be all this season.
Brandon Nimmo scored two runs. There was a Daniel Vogelbach sighting. Mark Vientos hit a pinch hit double.
It wasn’t perfect from an offensive standpoint, but there was a lot to like from the offense. That includes scoring two runs off the best bullpen in baseball.
The bullpen wasn’t exactly great. It was one off night for Brooks Raley in an otherwise good season. David Robertson got the Mets out of a bases loaded jam in the eighth, and Adam Ottavino handled the ninth with no problems.
This was the Mets team we expected all season. This had the look of a Mets team who you think could make a miracle run.
After the game, Velander was saying he didn’t want to go anywhere. As a team, the Mets are talking like a team who doesn’t believe their season is over, and Robertson has been rankled by questions over him moving at the deadline.
So, for a night, you can believe the Mets have what it takes to make a miracle run. However, it’s just one night. The Mets have effectively run out of time to make a run before the trade deadline.
It will be interesting to see what the Washington Nationals series brings before the deadline. It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets do. Mostly, whatever team is left, let’s see what the Mets do with an August schedule conducive to making a run.
You knew it was coming. After two good games where Mark Vientos was 3-for-6, he was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.
In the top of the eighth, the New York Mets were trailing 6-1 with two on and two out. A big swing would get the Mets back into it.
Naturally, Buck Showalter turned to Daniel Vogelbach with his .361 SLG and all of six homers on the season. To his credit, Vogelbach battled (cue Art Howe) in an 11 pitch at-bat, but ultimately, he struck out like we all expected he would.
Therein lies the problem for the Mets this season, and it’s something that needs to be addressed for now and as the Mets look towards 2024.
It’s not worth re-litigating the Vogelbach for Colin Holderman trade and it’s after effects. We’re now at what is best for the Mets, and when assessing it, this is all about Vogelbach’s performance.
Before Vientos was first called up, Vogelbach was hitting .250/.376/.369 with four doubles, two homers, and 13 RBI. This was one of the reasons the Mets felt compelled to call up Vientos.
From May 17 – June 18, both Vientos and Vogelbach were on the roster with Vogelbach getting the majority of the playing tone. Over that stretch, Vogelbach hit .122/.280/.220 with a double, homer, and two RBI. This time frame included the one week stretch where Vogelbach sat for a week to mentally reset and get going again.
Despite Vogelbach regressing, the Mets decided Vientos should go down with Vogelbach “resuming” the primary DH duties. He certainly didn’t improve despite Showalter continuing to lean on him.
In the time Vientos was back in Triple-A, Vogelbach hit .259/.298/.409 with two doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI. As we can see with the declining OBP, Vogelbach has not only stopped hitting, but he has also stopped walking.
All told, Vogelbach is hitting .224/.330/.361 with seven doubles, six homers, and 28 RBI. He has a -0.2 WAR, 93 OPS+, and a 98 wRC+.
For a position where your only job is hitting, Vogelbach isn’t. He’s below average. This season, Major League DHs have a combined 106 wRC+. Vogelbach is behind that mark while simultaneously driving it down.
The same can be said for the Mets. Even with Vogelbach getting the vast majority of starts at DH, the team has been at league average with a 106 wRC+. That means the Mets other options have greatly outperformed Vogelbach.
The caveat is Vientos hasn’t been one of those players outperforming Vogelbach. In his limited and disjointed playing time, he has truly struggled as evidenced by his 41 wRC+ this season.
However, Vientos has been hitting in Triple-A with regular playing time. With Syracuse, he has a 141 wRC+ displaying power only Pete Alonso can match (from a Mets organizational standpoint).
At the moment, the Mets are 46-53. They’re 18.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves and 7.5 games back of the last Wild Card. They’re at a point where they’re looking to sell.
When you look at trade pieces, no one wants Vogelbach. There’s zero reason why the Mets would try to showcase him. It’s over and done, and it’s time to move forward.
That said, there is reason to try to showcase Vientos. He’s blocked at first by Alonso and at third by Brett Baty. That leaves the DH spot for him as the Mets head to an offseason where they plan on heavily pursuing Shohei Ohtani.
If the Mets get Ohtani, that puts them in a spot where they need to start looking to trade Vientos. If Vientos goes on a tear, his trade value increases.
If they don’t get Ohtani, it would look like Vientos is one of the options they should look towards for 2024. Getting him more up to speed with a longer look would give then more of a sense as to whether Vientos should get the job next year.
All told, Vogelbach has hurt the team this year and will not be in the Mets plans next year. The Mets 2024 plans at DH at least partially hinge on Vientos or what the Mets want to do with him.
The team is past the point where they need to make the switch. They need to take Vogelbach away from Showalter and start Vientos at DH the rest of the season.