Curtis Granderson
Sometimes deals were not a good idea at their inception. At other times, deals don’t just work out as planned. Then there was Alejandro De Aza‘s tenure with the New York Mets.
Back when De Aza signed with the Mets, he was supposed to be the left-handed platoon option to go along with Juan Lagares in center field. It was an extremely unpopular signing at the time beacause it was a clear indication the Mets were not going to sign Yoenis Cespedes. Except the Mets, due to a combination of sheer luck and the depth of top end outfielders on the market, did actually re-sign Cespedes.
Just like that De Aza went from the platoon partner getting the bulk of the at-bats to being the team’s fifth outfielder. Considering the talent level ahead of him, he seemed like he was going to be the team’s seldom used fifth outfielder. Anyone would struggle under those circumstances, and De Aza did.
In the beginning of July, he was only batting .158 with just five extra base hits. Keep in mind, both of those extra base hits came in the same game. Essentially, the irregular to lack of playing time was wrecking havoc with his ability to produce, and it was affecting him mentally. It got to the point where Terry Collins began to question his work ethic.
With all that in mind, De Aza deserves a lot of credit. De Aza went on a tear in July hitting .375/.487/.531 in 21 games and six games started. The tear came at the right time too because it was a Mets team seemingly falling apart. Lagares had a thumb issue. Cespedes would deal with a quad injury. Both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto were struggling as well. In fact, the entire Mets offense including Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera was struggling. The Mets needed this boost from him, and they go it.
De Aza would also step up as the Mets were making a push for the Wild Card. In a crucial late August series against the Cardinals, with Seth Lugo making his second ever major league start, De Aza came up huge not only robbing Matt Carpenter of a home run in the first at-bat in the bottom of the first, but also by hitting his own three run home run. It was all part of how De Aza came up big when the Mets needed in most. In fact, over the final month of the season, he would hit .265/.366/.353 in 25 games.
Overall, De Aza’s tenure with the Mets was a disappointing one with all involved. However, he made significant contributions to the Mets when they needed them most. That should never be overlooked even if ultimately he was usually the outfielder overlooked when Collins was filling out the lineup card.
De Aza’s struggles are a large reason why he was only able to muster a minor league deal with the Oakland Athletics. With that said, he is in a much better situation than he was in 2016. This should allow him to return to being the player he never really got the chance to be with the Mets. Hopefully, he gets back to that point.
Until the 2016 season, Andrew McCutchen was considered a superstar, and given his part in the Pirates resurgence from their 21 consecutive losing seasons, he was one of the most important players in baseball. This is reflected in McCutchen finishing in the Top 5 in National League MVP voting for four consecutive seasons with him winning the award in 2013.
In his career, McCutchen is a .292/.381/.487 hitter who averages 24 homers and 87 RBI. With that type of production from a center fielder, the two years $18.75 million remaining on his contract is an absolute bargain. Arguably, this should make him the most untouchable player in baseball. That should go double when you consider the Pirates are a team that should compete for a playoff spot next year. Despite all of that, the Pirates have let it be known they are willing to trade McCutchen for the right price this offseason. What happened?
For starters, the 29 year old McCutchen had the worst year of his career in 2016. In 153 games, McCutchen hit .256/.336/.430 with 24 homers and 79 RBI. For a player that averaged a 6.4 WAR from 2011 – 2015, McCutchen’s -0.7 WAR in 2016 was startling.
One major reason for the drop-off was McCutchen’s WAR and value was mostly driven by his bat. In reality, aside from 2013, McCutchen has never been an even decent center fielder. In his eight year career, he has averaged a -7 DRS and a -5.9 UZR in center. Over the last three years, those numbers were even worse with him averaging a -16 DRS and a -11.3 UZR in center. Last season was the nadir with his -28 DRS and -18.7 UZR. Overall, these numbers don’t suggest, they scream McCutchen belongs in a corner outfield position.
Now, it has been suggested McCutchen is being positioned too shallow in center, and that has had an impact on his defensive metrics. As a point of reference, the Chicago Cubs moved Dexter Fowler deeper in center field in 2016, and the results were notable. Fowler went from a -12 DRS and a -1.8 UZR in 2015 to a 1 DRS and 1.0 UZR in 2016. While one year defensive metrics are typically unreliable, the results at least suggest there is room for improvement for McCutchen as a center fielder. The question is whether re-positioning him in center is enough, especially with McCutchen having previously dealt with knee issues that affected him at the plate and the field.
There may also be a reasonable explanation for his struggles at the plate last season. While unsubstantiated elsewhere, Pirates blog Rum Bunter suggested McCutchen was dealing with a wrist injury in the beginning of the season. Not knowing when it happened, it is at least plausible McCutchen was dealing with an issue whether it was the wrist, his knees, or some other undisclosed injury. Up until July 31st, McCutchen was hitting .241/.311/.408 with 15 homers and 43 RBI. After taking a few days off in the beginning of August, McCutchen seemed to return to the form we’ve expected from him. From August 5th to the end of the season, he hit .284/.381/.471 with nine homers and 36 RBI.
If you look at the end of the season McCutchen, you see some legitimate hope he could bounce back to the MVP level player he has been for most of his career. Still with knee and other issues, do you gamble on a 30 year old player regaining his superstar form, or do you gamble on your own prospects?
With Rob Biertempfel of Trib Live reporting the Pirates asked the Nationals for Lucas Giolito, who was part of the Adam Eaton trade, and Victor Robles in exchange for McCutchen, you know the price to obtain McCutchen is going to be steep. A comparable offer for the Mets would be Steven Matz and Michael Conforto, which is a price the Mets may not be willing to pay.
Nor should they. Ultimately, the litmus test is whether you are willing to gamble six years of Conforto for two of McCutchen. Do you believe that Conforto can similarly rebound from his wrist injury in the same way McCutchen did in August? Do you believe the McCutchen can improve defensively at 30 years old? Do you believe McCutchen would be better suited to center field than either Conforto or Curtis Granderson?
Even if you answer yes to all of these and many other non-posed questions, are you willing to include a potential front line starting pitcher and possibly other pieces to find out if you’re right? That’s the dilemma in trading for McCutchen. If you’re right, you could have an MVP player that could help the Mets win a World Series. If you’re wrong, you’ve given up a huge part of your future for something you already had in Granderson.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.
On a cold and blustery Christmas Eve night at Citi Field, faithful manager Terry Collins enters Fred Wilpon’s office.
Terry: I just wanted to stop on my way out to wish you and your family a happy holiday, and I just wanted to let you know I look forward to working with you and Sandy to help build a Mets team that can go to the World Series again.
Fred: What do you mean build?
Terry: Well, there are a few areas I was hoping to address. With Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins free agents, we need a couple of relievers in the bullpen, and –
Fred: Relievers? I just gave you two guys last week!
Terry: I know, but those were minor league deals.
Fred: I don’t get it. After Madoff, I’ve done all I could do to get my money back, and now everyone wants me to just give it away.
Terry: Well, we do owe the fans.
Fred: Seriously?
Terry: Well, I guess not. Anyway, happy holidays, and I look forward to next season.
Fred: Bah!
Not long after Terry leaves, Fred Wilpon leaves Citi Field, and he begins his drive to Greenwich. He pulls up to a stately manor that hasn’t been renovated since 2008. He makes his way into the bedroom, and before he can turn on the lights, he hears a ghostly whisper coming from behind him. It sounds like his name, but he initially can’t quite make it out. Suddenly, as if out of nowhere a figure emerges.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is that really you?
M. Donald Grant: It is.
Fred: But, you’re dead. How? How?
M. Donald Grant: I’ve come here to deliver a message.
Fred: What?
M. Donald Grant: Remember when I was alive, I won a World Series, and then I refused pay raises to everyone. Remember when I shipped Tom Seaver and everyone of value out of town?
Fred: All while keeping the team profitable!
M. Donald Grant: Yup, I mean no. No! I was wrong, and now I have to watch the 1962 Mets over and over again. But worse, I have to give the players raises after each and every game despite no one coming to the ballpark!
Fred: The horror.
M. Donald Grant: And if you don’t change, your fate will be worse than mine.
Fred: No . . . NO! . . . You’ve got to save me.
M. Donald Grant: Tonight, you will be visited by three spirits. Listen to them! Do what they say! Or you will be cursed for eternity.
And with that the apparition of Grant faded away leaving Fred frightened in his room. A few times he splashed cold water on his face and pinched himself to make sure he wasn’t dreaming. Still shaken, Fred made his way to bed. After a while, his fatigue got the better of his anxiety, and he faded to sleep. Then there was a loud noise like the roar of the crowd. It jostled Fred from his sleep. Still groggy, he looked out and couldn’t believe the figure before him.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is it really you Gary?
Before Fred was Hall of Fame catcher Gary Carter. Back in 1985, when Fred had just a small interest in the team, the Mets traded for Carter in the hopes that he would put the Mets over the top. Eventually, Carter did with the Mets winning the 1986 World Series. Notably, Carter started the game winning two out rally in the bottom of the 10th to allow the Mets to force a Game 7.
Gary: It’s really me Fred. I’m now the Ghost of Baseball Past.
Fred: Am I dead?
Gary: No, you’re not. I’m here to show you what things used to be like before you changed the way you did business with the Mets.
With that Gary, took a swing of the bat creating a cloud of dust and smoke all over the room. As the dust settled, the Mets found themselves back in a sold out Shea Stadium.
Fred: What a dump!
Gary: You didn’t always think so. In fact, you used to love coming here. Back in the 80s, Shea Stadium was the place to be. Those Mets teams were stacked with players like me, Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, and tonight’s starter Dwight Gooden.
Fred: Those Gooden starts were something special. No one could beat us then, and we knew it. We never could quite capture the magic from those teams again, but that was something special.
Gary: This is how things used to be. It was always this way. You did it again when you signed Mike Piazza, except you didn’t just sign him. You surrounded him with good players like Robin Ventura and Edgardo Alfonzo. That team came close. You did it again with Carlos Beltran. You spent the extra dollar to get a truly great player. You then added players like Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana to try to get it done. It didn’t work, but the fans came. More importantly, everyone respected you for it.
Fred: But they don’t understand.
Gary: Let’s see what happened next.
With a blink of Fred’s eye, Shea Stadium is just a memory. As he reopens his eyes, he is back in Citi Field as it was before it was fully renovated. The fans were angry with the team. It was one thing that the ballpark didn’t fully honor Mets history; it was another that the Mets let Jose Reyes walk in the offseason without so much as an offer. It was an uninspiring 88 loss win team that was seemingly going nowhere.
Fred: When did we put the Great Wall of Flushing back in? Where are all the fans?
Gary: You didn’t. It’s 2012.
Fred: That was an ugly time. Fans constantly complaining and booing. The team and I were personally cash strapped. I had no idea what our future was or could be. Worse yet, no one seemed to understand. The fans, the players, the press. No one. The whole thought of this time is just too much to bear. I can’t . . .
Before Fred could finish the sentence, he was hit in the head by a foul ball off the bat of Daniel Murphy. Next thing Fred knew, he was awake, with a headache back in his bed in Greenwich.
Fred: Man, I really have to lay off the Shake Shack late at night. It gives me the strangest dreams. And man, just remembering those days just gives me a headache. I never want to get back to that point . . .
As the words left Fred’s lips, there was a strange noise. Fred looked over, and he sees beloved former announcer and Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner in what appears to be old set of Kiner’s Korner.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Well hi everybody it’s Ralph Kiner, the Ghost of Christmas Present, on Kiner’s Korner. Well the Mets are in the middle of the offseason after the team failed to win the Wild Card Game. While the team acted quickly and brought back Neil Walker and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets offseason has been marked by inactivity. Recently, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson stated the Mets were going to have to move a contract like Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson before they could sign additional players this offseason. We have Mets owner Fred Wilpon on to talk about it next.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Welcome back to Kiner’s Korners. As you know Kiner’s Koners is sponsored by Rheingold – the Dry Beer!
Ralph: Hi Mr. Wilpon, welcome to Kiner’s Korners.
Fred: I’m not sure what exactly is happening here.
Ralph: Well, Mr. Wilpon, we’re here to talk about your team and what the 2017 roster will look like.
Fred: We’ve given Sandy free reign to do whatever he needs to do to put the best team on the field. We trust in his decision making, and we always demure to him on personnel decisions.
Ralph: Well Mr. Wilpon, there are not many that believe you. In fact, the fans will say that the team isn’t going to spend the money on the players like the Mets should. It reminds me back when I had won another home run title for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I went to Branch Rickey to ask for a raise. During the meeting, Rickey denied me a raise saying, “We finished eighth with you, we can finish eighth without you.” From there of course, I was then traded to the Chicago Cubs. This is the same Chicago Cubs franchise that won their first World Series title since 1908. The Cubs were once defeated –
Fred: Okay, okay. No, we’re not spending any money until we move a contract. That’s just the way things work now. This isn’t the old days where Omar gets free reign.
Ralph: Well, the fans are angry the team isn’t spending money. And I remember as a player how much the team wanted to know the owner supported them. When the team had the support of ownership it had an effect in the clubhouse and the play on the field.
Fred: Let’s be honest. The fans will let me do whatever I want so long as we’re winning. With the team we have now, we’re going to fill the seats because we have Cespedes. We have free t-shirts. We get to hype up the starts of not just Matt Harvey, but also Noah Syndergaard. As for the players, the only thing they really care about is their salary.
Ralph: That’s not true. Here is a videotape of your captain David Wright.
A large screen appears on the set of Kiner’s Korner with an image of Wright at his home talking to Collins about the upcoming season.
Collins: I know it may be a little late, but I wanted to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas. And I wanted to let you know that we’re all pulling for you to get back out on that field.
David: It’s hard skip. I wake up in pain everyday. It was bad enough when it was just the stenosis, but now it is my neck too. I just spend all of my day rehabbing and working out. I do all these special exercises for my back and my neck. It’s almost 24 hours of pure hell. It’s made all the harder by the fact that every minute I spend working out is time away from my wife and daughter. Baseball has always been a sacrifice, and I love it. But it just gets harder and harder.
Collins: You know the whole team is behind you. If there is anything you ever need, you just have to ask. And if you feel as if you can’t go on, you’ll always have a place on my staff.
David: I can’t hang ’em up. Not yet. Not with this team. We’re so close. I’ve come so close to the World Series a few times in my career, and I’ve fallen short. I don’t know if I’ll ever feel right hanging it up without winning one.
Fred: This is costing me $20 million a year.
David: And it’s not just about me. I owe a World Series to Mets fans who have supported me my whole career. They’ve gone out and bought my jerseys. They’ve cheered for me. They’ve always been there for me. And more importantly, I owe it to the Wilpon family. I saw what happened with Reyes and the other players who left. They decided to keep me. They made me the face of the franchise and the team captain. I’ve loved being a Met, and the Wilpons made that possible.
Fred: I just never knew how much he cared and how appreciative he was.
Ralph: Time for another commercial break and word from our sponsor the Ghost of Christmas Future.
Everything turns to black like a television screen being turned off. At first, Fred sits there quietly unsure of what is happening. He then finds himself in a strange room with Darryl Hamilton wearing his black Mets jersey. The same jerseys the Wilpons wanted to help drum up fan interest and help increase revenues. At first, Hamilton says nothing. He just looks at Fred before gesturing for Fred to follow him.
Fred follows Darryl down a hallway. Eventually, an image of a badly beaten down Wright emerges. On the walls are different jerseys he wore in his career. A shelf displays all of his awards and his 2015 National League Pennant ring. Wright moves around the room but with great difficulty. Although still relatively young, he moves like an old man. He’s there with another person.
Woman: Look, this is not going to happen overnight. With the beating your body has taken you’re luck you’re even in position to walk.
David: I don’t care. I need you to get me to the point where I can dance again. There is nothing that is going to stop me from dancing at my daughter’s wedding.
Woman: Ok, but we need to take it slowly. You’ve had a number of injuries in your career, especially those last few. Doing things like dancing is going to come with some difficulty for you. The trick is to build everything up so you can do it again.
Fred: What, what happened to him?
Darryl only nods his head in the direction of the trophy case.
Fred: He never won? But we had Harvey and Syndergaard. We had Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz. We had Cespedes. Of course we won at least one. There is no way we let that core go without winning a World Series. Surely, we made a move to get that final piece at least one of those years.
David: On cold days like this, it really makes me wonder how wise it was sticking to the end of my contract rather than just medically retiring the way Albert Belle and Prince Fielder did. I really wonder if Prince has the same problems I have. Still, I would do it all over again because trying to win that ring was important not just for my career, the fans, and Fred.
Woman: What happened?
David: We were so close, but we shot ourselves in the foot in 2015. After that, we always just seemed one or two players short. We gave it the best we could, but it just wasn’t meant to be . . . .
As David drifts off, Darryl gestures for Fred to re-enter the dark hallway. The two make their way down before standing outside the Rotunda entrance to Citi Field. Nearby is a group of men putting up a few statues. In the parking lot adjacent to 126th Street, there are a number of moving vans.
Worker 1: Honestly, it is about time there was a Tom Seaver statue erected at Citi Field. I think adding the Piazza one as well was a nice touch.
Worker 2: Things have been a lot better around here with the new guys came in.
Worker 1: And ain’t no one going to miss the old group.
Worker 2: How can you? They let the whole thing fall apart.
Worker 1: Good riddance!
Fred: What is happening here? What old group? Who authorized these statues?
With that Fred began a dead sprint towards the entrance to the executive offices, but he was distracted by a commotion happening at McFadden’s. Despite wanting to get back to his office, Fred found himself drawn to the bar where he found a group of people in celebration.
Man: Shhh! It’s about to be on the television.
Reporter: After years of seeing homegrown players sign elsewhere, and the Mets having been inactive on the free agent market, Citi Field has become eerily reminiscent of Grant’s Tomb in the 1970s. With fan interest at a nadir and record low revenues for the team, it became time for a change.
Fred: Darryl! What are they talking about?
Man: This is a dream come true for me. As a little boy sitting int he Upper Deck at Shea Stadium, I never imagined I would be in the position I am here today. And yet, here I am.
Cheers spread through McFaddens making the sound from the televisions inaudible.
Man: Back in 1980, the late Nelson Doubleday purchased the New York Mets from the Payson family. From that day, a new era of Mets prosperity began with ownership investing not just in good baseball people, but also its players and its fans. My pledge to the Mets fans is to operate this club much in the same fashion as Mr. Doubleday, and with that, a new era of Mets prominence will begin.
As cheers fill the room and the bartenders try to keep up with the customers needing drinks, a bewildered Fred turns back to Darryl.
Fred: Darryl, what is happening with my team? Was it . . .
As Fred trails off, he can see a sullen Jeff Wilpon standing out on the sidewalk waiting for a driver to take him home. Before Jeff could get into the car, he is ambushed by a group of reporters. Instinctively, Jeff runs out to assist his son.
Reporter: How do you feel today?
Jeff: How do you expect me to feel? The thing that mattered most to my father is now gone.
Reporter: What message do you have for Mets fans?
Jeff: I’m not sure where you guys have been all these years. If you came to the park, we might’ve been able to improve the team and prevent this day from happening.
Fred: Jeff, don’t tell me you did it! Don’t tell me you sold my team!
Reporter: How do you think your father would feel about this moment?
Jeff: Look guys, it’s been a hard day in what has been a hard few years. I just want to go home to my family.
Fred: Jeff! Jeff! I’m over here! Jeff!
With Jeff being worn down by the questioning, and his being unable to hear his father scream, he enters the car. Initially, Fred heads toward Jeff while repeatedly asking him what happened with the Mets. With Jeff being unresponsive, and with Fred knowing he’s not going to be able to get to the door in time, he runs in front of the car in an attempt to stop it. The car pulls from the curb, makes contact with Fred, and everything goes black.
The sun begins to rise, and it begins to light Fred’s room in Greenwich. The sun shines in Fred’s eyes causing him to initially squint. When he realizes that a new day has begun, Fred eagerly jumps from his bed, and he checks his iPhone.
Fred: It’s December 25, 2016! I still own the team! The spirits have given me another chance!
Fred grabs his phone, and he calls his secretary to immediately set up a conference call with Collins, Alderson, and Wright.
Fred: I’m sorry to bother you on Christmas morning, but I felt like this couldn’t wait any longer. We have a window here, and we have to take advantage of it. Sandy, the shackles are off. You have everything you need at your disposal. We owe Terry the best team possible for him to lead the Mets back to the World Series. And we owe it to you David because you stuck by us when times were at their lowest. We can’t let you finish your career without winning a World Series. It wouldn’t be fair, and it wouldn’t be right.
Terry: Thank you, and God bless you Mr. Wilpon!
David: God bless us everyone!
Typically, speaking when fans are frustrated during the offseason it would indicate their team has been largely inactive. After a “flurry” of early activity that included Neil Walker accepting the qualifying offer and Yoenis Cespedes signing a four year deal that team has been the Mets.
The frustrating reason why the Mets have been inactive is they have been unable to move Jay Bruce or even Curtis Granderson this offseason.
When the Cubs traded away Jorge Soler before signing Koji Uehara, I was almost led to believe that a team could not sign a free agent reliever until they traded away an outfielder. Given the relative inactivity on all free agents this offseason, it seemed like this was a bizarre and strange wrinkle added to the newly ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement. Alas, when the Marlins signed Junichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler it proved a team can sign a reliever without trading an outfielder.
That’s what makes this offseason so frustrating. The Mets are letting Bruce and/or Granderson hold their entire offseason hostage while players who can very well help them are going to other teams. Once again, the Mets have signaled they are not quite willing to spend. They are not willing to spend like a team in New York. They are not willing to spend like a team on the cusp of the World Series. Instead, this team is actually looking to cut payroll from its current levels before making another move.
Somewhere, someone is saying that spending doesn’t guarantee a World Series. That person is largely correct. However, this point also neglects the Chicago Cubs, a team that just went to the NLCS, went out last offseason and signed Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, and Jon Lester. The team also took on Aroldis Chapman‘s salary because they needed a closer heading into the offseason. No, the money didn’t guarantee the Cubs the World Series, but the money spent helped them win the World Series. By the way, Zobrist was the World Series MVP.
Somewhere else is a fan urging patience. Admittedly, Chapman and Kenley Jansen making late decisions held up most of the free agent market. This in turn led to a late and slow developing market for the next tier of relievers. However, those relievers are now coming off the board, and the Mets were not really in the discussion for any of them. In reality, the Mets aren’t going to be contenders for any relievers if they are looking to hand out cheap one year deals.
This means a player like Fernando Salas, who was very good for the Mets last year, may very well find himself playing for another team without receiving a competitive offer from the Mets. That really is unacceptable.
Lastly, there is someone saying that signing a reliever now would really hurt Bruce’s trade market. This is of course nonsense because Bruce obliterated much of the trade market by hitting .219/.294/.391 with the Mets. That market took another hit when the Mets re-signed Cespedes. It took yet another hit when Sandy said the Mets had to trade him before making another deal. Essentially, the Mets have forfeited whatever little leverage they had in trade discussions. How can the team re-signing Salas hurt Bruce’s market any more than it has?
Overall, the fact is the Mets are going to eventually be able to move Bruce. Once players like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and even Mark Trumbo sign, there are going to be teams interested in Bruce. However, how long is that going to take in what has been a really slow developing free agent market on almost all fronts? What players that can help the Mets are still going to be available in free agency?
The likelihood is players that would be willing to sign with the Mets are going to be elsewhere which makes this inactivity all the more frustrating. The team has real needs in the bullpen, and they need to address them now especially with the prospect of losing Jeurys Familia for 30 games.
Ultimately, it is time the Mets act like an even mid-sized market team and get the players it needs to compete for a World Series next season. This isn’t a matter of going out there and giving Jerry Blevins a five year deal for the sake of making a move. It is a matter of letting a pitcher like Ziegler go to an in-division rival on a reasonable contract. That’s an error created by the Mets not having the resources they need to compete.
It’s a shame too because with one or two moves this team could have been drastically better.
Last offseason, the Mets re-signing Yoenis Cespedes put the final touches on the team everyone hoped would compete for a World Series. This year, the re-signing of Cespedes is really just a start for a team that still needs to make a number of moves this offseason. Here is a look at the moves the Mets still need to make:
TRADE JAY BRUCE
With Cespedes back, Jay Bruce likely becomes the outfielder the Mets will trade this offseason. In his nine year career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 27 homers and 82 RBI. At $13 million next season, that production is arguably a bargain. That is probably a reason why teams have been in contact with the Mets trying to inquire what the team will want in exchange for Bruce. While it is hard to believe the Mets will be able to bring in a prospect like Dilson Herrera or a player that will have a similar impact that Bruce will have in 2017, it should not be ruled out that the Mets will be able to acquire a player of consequence that will help the team next season.
DETERMINE MICHAEL CONFORTO’S POSITION
If the Mets are going to trade Bruce, it is another sign that the Mets see Michael Conforto as an everyday player. Where he will be an everyday player remains to be seen. With Cespedes returning for four years with a no trade clause, the only thing we know is that Conforto will not be the teams everyday left fielder anytime soon. That leaves center and right field.
During Conforto’s time in AAA last year, he began learning both positions. In his limited time in the majors at both positions, he showed he may very well be able to handle either position on an everyday basis. However, given the presence of Juan Lagares on this team, the best thing for Conforto and the Mets is to transition him to right field. Let him get fully acclimated there and focus on getting back to where he was April of last year. This will also let Lagares and Curtis Granderson handle center field duties next season, which was a platoon that may work very well for the Mets next year.
OBTAIN A LOOGY
Last year, Jerry Blevins had a terrific year out of the bullpen for the Mets as a LOOGY. In fact, he proved to be a bit more as he had a career best year pitching against right-handed batters. However, he is a free agent now, and the Mets do not appear as if they are able or inclined to give him the multi-year deal that he may command in free agency.
The internal left-handed options are Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Edgin did have some success against left-handed batters in limited duty in the majors last year, but with his velocity still not having fully returned after his Tommy John surgery, it is hard to rely upon him in any capacity next year. Smoker had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors and the majors last year, but he has reverse splits. Therefore, the Mets are going to have to look outside the organization to figure out who will be the first lefty out of the pen next season.
OBTAIN ONE OR MORE LATE INNING RELIEVERS
The Mets bullpen really is in a state of flux at the moment due to the Jeurys Familia domestic violence arrest. Pending an investigation by MLB, it is possible that Familia will miss a significant number of games next season. If that is the case, Addison Reed should prove more than capable of closing games in Familia’s absence. This begs the question of who will step up and take over Reed’s role in the short term.
It was a question the Mets faced most of 2016, and they did not find a good answer until they obtained Fernando Salas on the eve of the waiver trade deadline. Given his late inning and closing experience, Salas would be a good option to pitch in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning next year. However, he is a free agent at the moment meaning the Mets are going to have to presumably sign or trade for someone to take over this role. In fact, the Mets may very well need two late inning relievers to address the bullpen.
SIGN A VETERAN STARTER
The one lesson learned from the 2016 season should be that once again you can never have too much pitching. With the return of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz, the Mets rotation is almost complete. The question is who will become the team’s fifth starter.
The first name that will be mentioned is Zack Wheeler. However, after missing all of 2015 and 2016, no one can be quite certain he is ready and able to assume the fifth starter’s role. The next names that will be mentioned are Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Both pitched quite well for the Mets in the stretch run last year, but the Mets may prefer to have a veteran arm who is able to eat up innings and/or can go deeper into the season than any of the aforementioned pitchers. Preferably, the pitcher they do sign would be willing to move to the bullpen in the event Wheeler, Lugo, or Gsellman wins the job in Spring Training or is ready to take over at some point during the season.
FIGURE OUT THE BACK-UP CATCHER SITUATION
Even with Rene Rivera back in the fold and despite his excellent work with Noah Syndergaard, there is still room for improvement on the catching front. Many will mention the recently non-tendered Wellington Castillo, but people should realize he’s an average hitter at best. Moreover, he’s a terrible pitch framer. Mets need to do better than that, but to be fair, that may not be possible.
Whatever the Mets decide to do, they first have to realize that Kevin Plawecki has twice proven he should not be relied upon to be the team’s primary back-up catcher. Next, the Mets have to realize they need a viable backup who can handle playing a number of games due to Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury history.
There are some other matters that need to be figured out as well. For example, do you want Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera competing for the last spot on the bench, or do you want to re-sign Kelly Johnson? The answer to this and many other questions will largely depend on how much money the Mets have to spend the offseason and/or what the Mets are able to obtain in exchange for Bruce.
Cespedes was a great start to the offseason, but the Mets work is far from over.
The Mets ranked dead last in the majors with a .225 team batting average with runners in scoring position. As a result of this and other issues, there was much hand-wringing over the Mets offense, and by natural extension of that, hitting coach Kevin Long. However, lost in all of the hand-wringing and finger-pointing was the fact that many of the Mets batters actually had a good season. In fact, much of this correlated with these batters working with Kevin Long. Here are some examples:
Entering the 2016 season, Cabrera was a career .267/.329/.412 hitter who averaged 28 doubles, 11 homers, and 57 RBI. Last year, the year that enticed the Mets to move quickly on the shortstop in free agency, Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430 with 28 doubles, 15 homers, and 58 RBI. Cabrera was much better than that this season.
Overall, Cabrera, while dealing with a knee injury all season long, hit .280/.336/.474 with 30 doubles, 23 homers, and 62 RBI. Judging on that alone, it was Cabrera’s best year at the plate (and his second best season as per OPS+). However, those numbers don’t tell the full story. After Cabrera came off the disabled list in August, he finished the season hitting .345/.406/.635 with 11 doubles, 10 homers, and 29 RBI. Effectively speaking, a healthier Cabrera helped power the Mets to the postseason.
Entering the 2016 season, Walker was a career .272/.338/.431 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 13 homers, and 60 RBI. Despite this being a year in which Walker dealt with numb feet and missed the month of September due to back surgery, Walker hit .282/.347/.476 with nine doubles, 23 homers, and 55 RBI. Overall, Walker tied his career high in homers and had his highest slugging percentage and OPS. He also had his second highest batting average and OBP. It was his third highest OPS+. If Walker was healthy or played in September who knows how much better those numbers would’ve been.
On their own those numbers were great, but there was a significant improvement to Walker’s game. Despite Walker being billed as a switch-hitter, he really wasn’t. Entering the 2016 season, Walker hit .260/.306/.338 with six homers and 75 RBI over seven major league seasons. As a right-handed batter in 2016, Walker hit .330/.391/.610 with eight homers and 16 RBI. He was a completely different hitter from the right side of the plate who more than doubled his career home run total from that side of the plate. With that Walker went from a switch-hitter in name only to a real threat from both sides of the plate.
Entering the 2015 season, Cespedes was a career .263/.316/.464 hitter who averaged 27 doubles, 24 homers, and 87 RBI. He was a batter that struck some fear when he cane to the plate, but he was hardly considered one of the top power hitters in the game.
When Cespedes game to the Mets at the trade deadline last year that all changed. In 57 games, Cespedes hit .287/.337/.604 with 14 doubles, 17 homers, and 44 RBI. The numbers were striking as they were unexpected. This year, Cespedes proved those numbers weren’t a mirage. In 132 games with the Mets, Cespedes hit .280/.354/.530 with 25 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI. It’s all the more impressive when you consider Cespedes did this while dealing with a quad issue for about half the season. During Cespedes tenure with the Mets he has hit for a higher average, OBP, SLG, and homers. He is now one of the most feared power hitters in the game.
Sometimes becoming an effective player is just focusing on the things you do well as a player. As we have seen in Flores’ young career, the two things he does well is hit for power and hit left-handed pitching. Before going down for the season with a wrist injury, Flores was at his absolute best in both departments.
In 107 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Flores hit .340/.383/.710 with four doubles, 11 homers, and 28 RBI. For the season, Flores hit .267/.319/.469 with 14 doubles, 16 homers, and 49 RBI. It was a career best batting average, OBP, and slugging for Flores in a season he tied his career high in homers. It should also be noted that Flores was getting progressively better as 2016 progressed. With that, Flores showed he was not just an improved hitter in 2016, but he was a player who is poised to have an even better 2017.
Before being traded to the Mets yet again, Johnson was hitting .215/.273/.289 for the Braves. When Johnson returned to the Mets, he asked Long to do for him what Long did for Daniel Murphy. The result was Johnson hitting .268/.328/.459 with eight doubles, nine homers, and 24 RBI in 82 games. With the 34 year old Johnson didn’t just turn his season around, he might’ve also lengthened his career.
In response to the positive impact Long had on some key contributors to the 2016 season, many Mets fans will point to some of the perceived failures of Long this season. Just remember the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
With respect to Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto, their numbers will tell you both players took a major step back in 2016. However, Conforto had a wrist injury, and d’Arnaud had a shoulder injury. Those injuries most likely had a big impact on their performances especially when you consider Conforto hit .365/.442/.676 and was the major league leader in hard hit ball percentage.
Another player many fans will point to is Curtis Granderson, who took a step back from his outstanding 2015 season. It should be noted, Granderson hit .302/.414/.615 in the final month of the season, and he became the oldest Mets outfielder to hit 30+ home runs in a season.
As for the rest of the team, many suffered their injuries, and they had their ups and their downs as the season progressed. However, the Mets were able to withstand the injuries and the ups and downs of the season because the Mets got some terrific and unexpected offensive seasons from some of their players. Kevin Long goes a long way in explaining how that happened.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
With reports that the Mets do not expect they will be able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, and that was before Neil Walker accepted the $17.2 million qualifying offer, the question is how do you replace the irreplaceable? Here are some options:
FREE AGENTS
As explained in an earlier MMO article, a rejuvenated Gomez could help the Mets by continuing to play a good center field and by providing another right-handed bat in what protects to be a heavy left-handed Mets lineup.
After not getting a significant contract offer with a qualifying offer attached to him, he bet on himself taking a one year $8 million deal from the Texas Rangers.
Desmond was an All Star who hit .285/.335/.446 with 29 doubles, 22 homers, and 85 RBI. However, Desmond does have some red flags:
- He rated below average defensively in center field (-4.5 UZR);
- He hit only .269/.324/.429 off right-handed pitching; H
- He fell apart in the second half hitting .237/.283/.347; H
- He hit .330/.368/.497 at hitter friendly Ballpark at Arlington and .241/.305/.398 in the road; and
- He may get a qualifying offer.
Infamously, the Mets chose Jason Bay over him heading in the 2009 offseason. Bay would struggle immensely at Citi Field while Holliday would win a World Series with the Cardinals.
While Holliday has been injury prone the past few years, he has still hit. He has always been an average to below average left fielder, and the 37 year old is coming off his worst year out there. It is part of the reason he began transitioning to first base with the Cardinals. If the Mets were to sign him, he could fulfill the role the Mets envisioned Michael Cuddyer would have.
Of all the available free agents, Bautista is the one who is best suited to replicate the offensive production Cespedes provided the Mets. Over the past three seasons, Bautista has hit .259/.383/.508 while averaging 32 homers and 95 RBI. If you are looking for a difference maker in the lineup, Bautista fits the bill.
However, there are some reason to be hesitant to sign Bautista. First, he is a 36 year old coming off his worst season since 2009 (as per OPS+). Second, he has been in decline as an outfielder over the past three seasons. Third and most importantly, he is going to be expensive. It is anticipated Bautista will received a qualifying offer, and he reportedly wants 5 years $150 million in free agency.
Trumbo certainly enjoyed hitting at Camden Yards for a full season. Trumbo went from a career .251/.301/.460 hitter who averaged 26 homers to a .256/.316/.533 hitter who led the majors with 47 homers. Naturally, when there is a jump like that with a player, there are a number of reasons why a team like the Mets should shy away.
Throughout his career, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching. This isn’t exactly appealing when you consider he would be joining an outfield with three other left-handed hitters. Furthermore, he did most of his damage this past season at Camden Yards showing much of his career year was generated by his home ballpark. Lastly, Trumbo is really a 1B/DH masquerading as an outfielder.
Reuniting with Beltran certainly seems like it would be a stretch considering he has already stated his intentions that he wants to DH next year, and he wants to return to the Texas Rangers. It is certainly understandable considering he will be 40 next season, and he has been a below average right fielder the past three years.
Still, Beltran can his positive attributes. Over the past three years, Beltran has hit .271/.327/.468 while averaging 21 homers and 70 RBI. We know from his time with the Mets, he is great in the clubhouse, and he helps younger players with the preparation and conditioning aspect of the game. It is something Beltran did with both David Wright and Jose Reyes immediately upon joining the Mets. Finally, Beltran is one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time. For a team with World Series aspirations, Beltran could help on that front.
THE TIGERS
As luck would have it, the Padres rejected the Mets offer of Michael Fulmer for Upton leading the Mets to offer him in exchange for Cespedes. Once again, the Tigers are looking to trade an outfielder, and the Mets may have interest in a player like Upton.
Upton has always been a good hitter in his major league career. In his nine years as a starter, he is a .270/.349/.476 hitter who averages 24 homers and 77 RBI in his nine years as a starter. Generally speaking, he has never been a guy that will hurt you in the outfield even if he is coming off a poor year offensively. Between his offense, his defense, and his friendship with Wright, you could make a very good case why the Mets should purse Upton.
There is also over $110 million reasons why you would want to avoid Upton. If Upton were not to exercise he opt out clause, which he would use after the 2017 season, the Mets would be on the hook for the full amount of the remaining $110.625 million remaining on his contract. Typically speaking, the Mets have not shown the interest in adding contract like that to the payroll.
Now, Upton could also opt out of his contract, which would put the Mets in the same position as they are this offseason. They will likely be unable to re-sign him, and in return, all they can recoup for him is a compensatory first round draft pick. Compensatory draft picks are great when they become players like Fulmer who are real assets that can help the major league team. They are also suspect when they become players like Anthony Kay, who failed a physical and needs Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a professional pitch.
Over the last three seasons, Martinez has blossomed into a terrific hitter. In Detroit, he has hit .299/.357/.540 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. Up until this year, he has also been a solid outfielder. You can do a lot worse than Martinez in trying to replace Cespedes.
That’s part of the reason why he will be difficult to obtain. Next year is the final year of his contract that pays him $11.75 million. While the Tigers are looking to shed payroll, they will likely seek a king’s ransom in exchange for a player that has a very favorable contract for next season. With the Mets having traded away some many big pieces over the past two seasons, and with them being reluctant to trade players like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, it is hard to see them pulling off a trade for a cheap outfielder who has terrific production.
INTERNAL OPTIONS
As it stands right now, the Mets have two corner outfielders in Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson who are coming off 30 home run seasons. With them at the corners, it is possible the Mets feel as if they are already set in left and right field even with one of them having to change positions.
The Mets may even have more faith in their outfield as is with Michael Conforto. In his young career, he has shown the Mets glimpses of his being a brilliant hitter. He was undaunted as a rookie in 2015. He was perhaps the best hitter in baseball in April 2016. He responded to a demotion after a wrist injury and his slumping by hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI in 17 August games in AAA. With Conforto having shown glimpses of what his true talent level is, and with him showing the willingness to put in the work, the Mets may very well gamble on Conforto in 2017.
The fact that Granderson and Conforto can also play center field gives the Mets options on a game to game basis. It allows them to put all three out there, and it allows them to sit one for rest or to avoid a tough left-handed pitcher to get Lagares’ glove in the outfield. Overall, the Mets may very well stay internal to replace Cespedes’ production. It is a gamble, and that gamble may be the difference between going to the postseason or staying home in 2017.
Editor’s Note: a version of this article was first published on Mets Merized Online