Curtis Granderson
One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was the production they received from first base. The precipitous drop in production was a major factor in why the 2016 Mets scored fewer runs than the 2015 Mets. Remember, the 2015 Mets once infamously had John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. With that in mind, getting improved production out of first base needs to be a priority for the Mets this offseason. Here is what should be available for the Mets this offseason:
INTERNAL FIRST BASEMAN
Duda is exactly the player the Mets need to revive their offense in 2017. From 2014-2015, Duda hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. He is a home run threat in the middle of your order, and he is the classic slugging first baseman.
The issue with Duda is no one knows if he is healthy. In 2015, he went on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his lower back. In 2016, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, and he took longer than expected to return from the injury. While he tried admirably to try to play in the Wild Card Game, he just wasn’t ready. For the season, he only played in 47 games hitting .229/.302/.412 with seven homers and 23 RBI.
While all indications are Duda is completely healthy, it is unknown whether he can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule. It is also unknown whether he can return to form after suffering back injuries in consecutive seasons. At the moment, it is anticipated he will earn approximately $7 million in arbitration. For the production we know he is capable of producing, that is a steep bargain. Not knowing if he can produce, $7 million could be an expensive gamble, especially in light of Wright’s situation.
Smith is coming off a terrific year in AA where he finally began to fulfill some of the offensive potential he has by hitting for more power in the second half of the season. He is a a highly regarded prospect who is already a slick defender at first base. Still, he is just 21 years old, and he has yet to have an at-bat above AAA. He is not ready to be the Opening Day first baseman, and it is quite possible he may not be ready to play in the majors next year.
PLAYERS CHANGING POSITIONS
Time and again, people state Wright should just move across the diamond and play first base. Saying that presents a clear misunderstanding of the first base position and how taxing it would be on Wright.
Other than catcher, first base is the most demanding physical position for a player. At first base, a player is constantly stretching, turning, and twisting in the hopes of getting a throw from one of his infielders that much quicker to turn a close play into an out. With a runner on first, the first baseman has to spring off the bag and into his defensive position as the pitcher delivers the ball. Like a third baseman, he charges the bunts and dives for balls down the line. According to Dr. Walter P. Jacobsen, DO, a neurosurgeon, these activities that are high impact and require twisting are activities that should be avoided. These activities are more prevalent at first than third base.
Even assuming this was incorrect, that Wright was better suited to first base, when is he going to get the opportunity to transition there? Wright had season ending cervical fusion surgery, and presumably, he is going to need to spend most of his time in the offseason rehabbing and figuring out yet another pregame routine that will permit him to play in as many games as possible. As such, there is no time for him to learn first base.
Without or without Cespedes’ return, the Mets are going to have a glut of everyday caliber outfielders, and one of them may need to find a new home. That new home could be on another team or at another position. With UZR and DRS rating Bruce was the Mets worst outfielder, he would be the likely candidate to move to first base.
The one caution is Bruce has only played three games there in his major league career, and all three of those games were two years ago. Even accounting for that, Bruce may have the athleticism to adapt to first base and succeed there on the major league level. It is also a way to keep him and his 30 home run caliber bat in the lineup every day while also allowing Curtis Granderson, another Mets right fielder who can hit 30 home runs, in the lineup everyday.
Still, before moving someone over to first base, Mike Piazza should always be a caution to Mets fans that not just anyone can move over there. It is a difficult position that requires hard work in the offseason. If this is the plan, the Mets need to implement it sooner rather than later.
None other than Keith Hernandez believes Conforto should be playing first base with him saying, “He more than likely is going to end up at first base, though it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than average there.” (nj.com). While it is far from a ringing endorsement, it is notable when Hernandez, the best defensive first baseman in major league history, states you should play his position.
For his part, Conforto is open to the possibility saying, “I took some reps in college over at first base just for emergency-type situations. I think that’s something that’s very, very interesting, something I’d be open to, obviously. I just want to help the team.” (New York Post).
Moving Conforto there means you won’t have to displace a veteran like Bruce. However, it does create a few problems. First, choosing to move Conforto over Bruce also means choosing to move the better defensive outfielder out of the outfield. Second, moving Conforto there could become a potential barrier to Smith or Peter Alonso at first base in the upcoming seasons. Third, having Conforto change positions to the infield could be yet another obstacle in the young player’s development.
For a myriad of reasons ranging from a wrist injury to uneven playing time to him just falling into slumps like any other player, the 2016 season was a lost one for Conforto. He went from the Mets top hitting prospect to a young player Terry Collins entrusted to little more than pinch hitting duty down the stretch. It is quite possible the best thing for him is for the Mets to pick a position in the outfield and let him stay there and allow him to work with Kevin Long to get back to what worked well for him.
EXPENSIVE OPTIONS
Tigers GM Al Avila has already announced the Tigers are looking to get younger and shed some payroll this offseason. With that in mind, the Tigers have a number of interesting trade candidates making big money like Cabrera.
At 33, Cabrera had another terrific season hitting .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI. Should Cespedes depart this offseason, Cabrera would more than replace Cespedes in the lineup. However, the Mets chances of obtaining Cabrera are unlikely due to the cost. First, it is going to take a huge haul of players to obtain them, and in the past, the Mets have shown unwillingness to move one of their big pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Steven Matz. Given Cabrera’s production, it is likely the Tigers ask for one of these players and/or a big prospect like Smith, Amed Rosario, or both.
Even if there was a middle ground on players the Mets deemed acceptable, it is hard to imagine them adding Cabrera’s contract. Cabrera still has seven years $132 million left on his deal. The contract carries through to his age 40 season, and there are two vesting options at the back end of the deal for $30 million a piece. If Cabrera does not age well, this contract would become the type of albatross Sandy Alderson typically avoids.
Bringing back Turner would be a page out of the Todd Zeile handbook. While Turner has not played regularly at first base, he has shown the ability to play over there, and his bat may help the Mets improve in 2016.
Moreover, Turner may need to move to first base to lengthen his career. Over the past few seasons, he has had knee issues, and he may not be well suited for the third base position in the time of the modern shift era that requires a third baseman to cover more ground than they did a decade or so ago.
There does remain some issues for Turner. First and foremost is the aforementioned knee issues. Second, Turner took off when he played in his hometown. There is no telling if he would struggle playing on the east coast again. Third, he regressed from an on base perspective this year. In 2014 and 2015, Turner was a player who had a .384 on base percentage with a .492 slugging. This year, Turner’s OBP dropped to .339 even while his slugging percentage stayed in the same vicinity (.493). This might have been a product of his knee issues or it could have been a product of him swinging for the fences more as evidenced by his career high 27 homers.
In either event, Turner is not the safest choice, especially when you are asking him to play out of position. These fears become magnified when you consider Turner will likely received a qualifying offer, and he will likely get a big contract offer from someone, including but not limited to the Dodgers, to play third base.
THE DESIGNATED HITTERS
Encarnacion may prove to be the biggest power bat on the free agent market. He is coming off a year that saw him hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 homers and a league leading 127 RBI. Over the past three seasons, Encarnacion is hitting .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 homers and 112 RBI.
There are two issues with Encarnacion. First, much of his stats have been generated as a result of him hitting in the Rogers Centre, which is a hitter’s park. In his career, Encarnacion has hit .272/.360/.535 there. Last year, on the road, Encarnaction was a .246/.342/.492 hitter on the road. While it is a drop-off, the Mets would gladly take Encarnacion’s road production from their first base position next year.
Therein lies the real problem with Encarnacion. He’s a DH. Encarnacion has not played more than half a season at first base in his entire career. In his last five years with the Blue Jays, he has split his time between first and DH. While advanced metrics like UZR and DRS rate him to be an average first baseman, it is unknown whether he could withstand the rigors of playing in the field everyday. Those concerns are amplified for a player that will turn 34 next year, will command a large contract, and will most likely recent a qualifying offer.
Seemingly, from the moment Santana came up to the Cleveland Indians as a catcher, the team has sought a position for him. He has proven his best position is DH.
Santana is coming off a terrific year that saw him hit ..259/.366/.498 with 34 homers and 87 RBI. Those were the highest home run and RBI totals of his career. In his six full seasons with the Indians, Santana has averaged 24 homers and 81 RBI. With his on base skills and his switch hitting ability, Santana would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup. However, like Encarnacion, the real question is whether he can be an everyday first baseman.
Like Encarnaction, he rates as average when he does play there. Unlike Encarnacion, he played almost a full season there in 2015. Moreover, he is four years younger than Encarnacion. So while both may receive qualifying offers and large contract offers on the free agent market, Santana may prove to be the better bet for the Mets should they look to upgrade the first base position in free agency.
QUESTIONABLE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION
The best thing you can say about Loney in 2016 was he was a definitive upgrade over the Mets internal options like Campbell. Unfortunately, Loney showed little that would entice the Mets to bring him back next season. Loney finished the year hitting .257/.287/.369 with five homers and 18 RBI in 63 games after the All Star Break. He also showed he had limited range and an inability to stretch far for throws made to first. While he was an improvement over what the Mets had in 2016, the Mets are simply going to have to do better than him in 2017.
The Cleveland Indians took a one year flier on Napoli this offseason, and it has been a boon for them as Napoli has been a major contributor for a team now playing in the World Series. Still, there is caution for Napoli, who has a history of hip problems, and whose numbers were not great this season.
In 150 games, Napoli hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 homers and 101 RBI. In 2015, Napoli bounced around, and he hit .224/.324/.410 with 18 homers and 50 RBI in 133 games. With Napoli turning 35 next year, it is hard to believe he will have another strong campaign. Furthermore, the last thing this Mets offense needs is another low OBP guy who is seemingly all or nothing at the plate.
For a few seasons, Lind had proven himself to be a good on base player who may not have the traditional power you typically want from the first base position. In 2016, Lind played for the Mariners, and his production fell off a cliff. In 126 games, Lind hit .239/.286/.431 with 20 homers and 58 RBI. Historically, Lind has also struggled to hit left-handed pitching. Lind is more of a buy-low candidate in the event there are no better options than he is an upgrade you would seek on the free agent market.
BEST CHOICE
Ultimately, it may behoove the Mets to bring back Duda for one more season. If he produces at his normal levels, he will be exactly what this offense needs. Better yet, if he produces at that level, the Mets could give him a qualifying offer next offseason thereby helping them gain a first round draft pick in the process (assuming no changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement). Furthermore, with Duda, the Mets have a nice bridge to Smith should he take another leap this year and prove himself ready to contribute at the major league level ahead of schedule.
Looking at the BBWAA criteria for MVP voting, which I try to follow, it does not give much guidance on how to evaluate a player in a pennant race against a player who was stuck on a horrendous team but had an incredible season. Overall, this has created a rift between people who interpret MVP to mean “most valuable” and for those who interpret MVP to mean “best player.” While people stand on soap boxes and pound the podium for their side, there really is no wrong answer.
Personally, I tend to look at the “most valuable” side of the spectrum. A player who had a great year for a playoff team certainly had more value than a player who had a great year for a last place club. As the late great Ralph Kiner used to say during Mets telecasts, when he asked for a raise after a season he led the league in home runs (which he would do an impressive seven straight seasons), Branch Rickey told him something to the effect of, “We finished last with you, we could’ve finished last without you.”
While that is a little extreme, there is another factor at play. With the exception of players like Mike Scott and Bobby Richardson, it is generally accepted that the MVP comes from the team that won the postseason series. For example, in hitting three home runs, and big home runs at that, Curtis Granderson was arguably the best player in the 2015 World Series. However, the MVP went to Salvador Perez who had a good World Series for the Kansas City Royals. The guiding principle here is that you need to have an otherworldly type of series (or season) to win an MVP award for a losing team.
This is where it gets dicey as Mike Trout had one of those seasons. In 159 games, Trout hit .315/.441/.550 with 32 doubles, five triples, 29 homers, and 100 RBI. Trout would lead the league in runs (123), walks (116), OBP, OPS+ (174), runs created (148), adjusted batting runs (65), times on base (300), WPA (6.5), and wRC+ (171). His name was also scatterd across the Top 10s of the few categories he did not lead. It should come as no surprise then that he lead the majors in both bWAR (10.6) and fWAR (9.4). With a season like that, how can you justify voting for someone else?
Well, Mookie Betts was just that good. In 158 games, Betts hit .318/.363/.534 with 42 doubles, five triples, 31 homers, and 113 RBI. These are great numbers even if they are not on par with the offensive season Trout had. Betts led the league in at-bats (672) and total bases (359). He would also finish second in batting average, tenth in OBP, eighth in slugging, eighth in OPS (.897), second in plate appearances (730), second in runs scored (122), second in hits (214), third in doubles, tenth in triples, fourth in RBI, sixth in stolen bases (26), third in runs created (133), fourth in extra base hits (78), and eighth in WPA (3.1). Again, these are good numbers, but it is not the type of numbers that would cause Betts to be named MVP over Trout.
What gives Betts the edge is defense. Betts led the majors in DRS (32). He was third in the American League and fifth in the majors in UZR (17.8). Betts far outpaced Trout in both of these categories as Trout had a 6 DRS and a -0.3 UZR. Where Trout outclassed Betts as a hitter, Betts outclassed Trout as a fielder.
Accordingly, Betts was just behind Trout in bWAR (9.6) and fWAR (7.8). That was good for second in the American League. Overall, the separation between the two is like the separation between Betts and Trout was the difference between Joe Mauer and Chase Headley.
Looking at it through that prism, was there really that much of a difference between Betts and Trout? In my opinion, there wasn’t. Accordingly, Betts’ team having been in a pennant race all season, and having won the American League East, is a tiebreaker for me. With that Mookie Betts is the American League MVP.
Third – Manny Machado
Machado’s name gets lost in discussions over the young player you would rather have discussions. Most say it’s between Trout and Bryce Harper. However, Machado once again proved he belongs in the discussion. The 23 year old hit .294/.343/.533 with 40 doubles, one triple, 37 homers, and 96 RBI for an Orioles team that squeaked its way into the postseason as a Wild Card despite having next to no starting pitching.
He was his typical Gold Glove self at third base. With a J.J. Hardy injury, Machado had to slide over to shortstop for 45 games where he was above average proving that Machado can do anything in the field.
Fourth – Robinson Cano
In his third year as a Mariner, Cano finally put together a season like the ones he used to have with the Yankees. In 161 games, Cano hit .298/.350/.533 with 33 doubles, two triples, 39 homers, and 103 RBI. He did this while playing a very good second base. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Mariners were in the Wild Card hunt all the way until the final week of the season.
Fifth – Josh Donaldson
The reigning American League MVP put together yet another MVP caliber season. In 155 games, Donaldson hit .284/.404/.549 with 32 doubles, five triples, 37 homers, and 99 RBI. He finished fourth in the American League in WAR (7.4), and he led the Blue Jays to back-to-back postseason berths for the first time since 1992-1993.
Sixth – Adrian Beltre
In the Texas Rangers pre-Beltre history, they had four postseason appearances in their 50year franchise history. With Beltre, the Rangers have gone to the postseason four out of the last six years. Beltre has been a huge part of that as he was again this season. In 153 games, Beltre hit .300/.358/.521 with 31 doubles, 32 homers, and 104 RBI. By the way, the 37 year old still plays a Gold Glove caliber third base.
Seventh – Corey Kluber
Kluber was the best pitcher in the American League this year pitching 215.0 innings in 32 starts going 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 227 strikeouts, 1.056 WHIP, 149 ERA+, 3.26 FIP, and a 6.5 WAR. He led the league in pitching WAR and shutouts. He was the ace for an Indians team that won the Central. While the postseason does not count for regular season awards (and this ballot was submitted prior to the postseason), we have seen just how valuable Kluber is to the Indians.
Eighth – Kyle Seager
If we are being fair, the Mariners were a two-three man group offensively, and that group kept them in the Wild Card race until the last week of the season. Seager was the second best player on the team, and he was almost as responsible for the Mariners success as Cano was. Overall, Seager hit an impressive .278/.359/.499 with 36 doubles, 30 homers, and 99 RBI
Ninth – Jose Altuve
Tenth – Brian Dozier
There are many factors to consider when voting for a candidate today. At this point, they have all be regurgitated and discussed at length, and hopefully, you have made your decision based upon sound criteria. However, if you are looking for a reason to change your mind or reason to have your mind made up for you, or you really want to base this important decision on how the Mets have fared with a Republican or a Democrat in office, you are in luck. Here is how the Mets have performed under each President in their 54 year history:
| President | Seasons | Record | Win % |
| John F. Kennedy | 1962 – 1963 | 91 – 231 | 0.283 |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | 1964 – 1968 | 303 – 506 | 0.375 |
| Richard M Nixon | 1969 – 1974* | 478 – 433 | 0.525 |
| Gerald R. Ford | 1974* – 1976 | 263 – 277 | 0.487 |
| Jimmy Carter | 1977 – 1980 | 260 – 388 | 0.401 |
| Ronald Reagan | 1981 – 1988 | 662 – 573 | 0.536 |
| George H.W. Bush | 1989 – 1992 | 386 – 423 | 0.477 |
| William Jefferson Clinton | 1993 – 2000 | 562 – 506 | 0.526 |
| George W. Bush | 2001 – 2008 | 651 – 643 | 0.503 |
| Barack Obama | 2009 – 2016 | 630-666 | 0.486 |
* Nixon resigned from office August 9, 1974
Here are the cumulative results:
| Party | Record | Win% |
| Democrat | 1,846 – 2,297 | 0.446 |
| Republican | 2,440 – 2,349 | 0.510 |
Here are some interesting Mets postseason facts when there was a Democrat or Republican in the White House.
Democrat Postseason Facts
- The two times the Mets have been to back-to-back postseasons was when there was a Democrat in the White House (1999 & 2000 – Clinton; 2015 & 2016 – Obama)
- The Mets have only had an NLCS MVP when there was a Democrat in the White House (Mike Hampton – 2000; Daniel Murphy – 2015)
- The Mets have only won the division once (2015) with a Democrat in office. The other three postseason appearances were as the Wild Card.
- The Mets have appeared in four total postseasons and two World Series. The Mets are 21-17 in postseason games with the following records per round:
Wild Card Game 0 – 1 NLDS 9 – 4 NLCS 10 – 4 World Series 2 – 8
Republican Postseason Facts
- The Mets have won their only two World Series with a Republican in office (1969 – Nixon; 1986 – Reagan)
- In all five of their appearances in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets were the National Leauge East champions.
- In three of the five appearances, the Mets won 100+ games with the high water mark coming in 1986 with 108 wins
- In four of the five seasons the Mets appeared in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets had the best record in the National League (1973 is the exception). In two of those seasons (1986 & 2006), the Mets had the best record in baseball.
- In total, the Mets have appeared in five postseason and three World Series. The Mets are 30-20 in those postseason games with the following records per round:
NLDS 3 – 0 NLCS 16 – 12 World Series 11 – 8
If you wish to mainly focus on player performance over how the team has fared during each administration, Mets players have received more awards during Republican leadership:
Cy Young Award
- Republican 4 (Tom Seaver 1969, 1973, & 1975; Dwight Gooden 1985);
- Democrat 1 (R.A. Dickey 2012)
Rookie of the Year
- Republican 3 (Seaver 1967; Jon Matlack 1972; Darryl Strawberry 1983; Gooden 1984)
- Democrat 1 (Jacob deGrom 2014)
Rolaids Relief Man
- Republican 2 (John Franco 1990; Armando Benitez 2001)
- Democrat 0
Sports Illustrated Man of the Year
- Republican 1 (Seaver 1969)
- Democrat 0
Gold Gloves
- Republican 14 (Tommie Agee 1970; Bud Harrelson 1971; Keith Hernandez 1983 – 1988; Ron Darling 1989; Carlos Beltran 2006 – 2008; David Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 6 (Doug Flynn 1980; Rey Ordonez 1997 – 1999; Robin Ventura 1999; Juan Lagares 2014)
Silver Sluggers
- Republican 14 (Hernandez 1984; Gary Carter 1985 – 1986; Strawberry 1988; Howard Johnson1989 & 1991; Mike Piazza 2001 – 2002; Jose Reyes 2006; Beltran 2006 – 2007; Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 5 (Piazza 1998 – 2000; Edgardo Alfonzo 1999; Hampton 2000)
Roberto Clemente Award
- Republican 2 (Carter 1989; Carlos Delgado 2006)
- Democrat 2 (Al Leiter 2000; Curtis Granderson 2016)
From the Front Office side, Republicans have a 2-1 edge in executive of the year with Johnny Murphy winning in 1969, Frank Cashen winning in 1986, and Sandy Alderson winning in 2015. Baseball America named the Mets the top organization in baseball once in a Republican (1984) and once in a Democratic (1995) term.
As a general rule of thumb, the Mets and their players have performed better with a Republican in office. As you enter the voting booths today, take that as you will. Hopefully, you have more sound criteria for choosing your candidate.
With the 2016 World Series going seven games, today marks the deadline for Yoenis Cespedes to opt out of the remaining two years of his contract. Once Cespedes opts out of his contract like we all expect him to do, the danger of losing him in free agency will begin to be fully realized.
The Mets have had over a month to negotiate a deal with Cespedes. Over this time period, they were the only team that could negotiate with him, and yet, the Mets haven’t had any real contract discussions with him. Instead, the Mets have let everyone know they are pessimistic about re-signing him because he wants a five year deal. Then they began the process of putting out there the team is concerned about what type of effort Cespedes will give once he receives the five year contract he is looking to obtain in free agency.
This is the beginnings of the same smear campaign the Mets launched against Cespedes last offseason. As you remember last offseason, the Mets quickly moved on from Cespedes by signing Alejandro De Aza to platoon with Juan Lagares in center. It was only after Cespedes didn’t get the deal he was expecting in free agency that he and the Mets were able to negotiate the current deal Cespedes is opting out of today.
There will be no bat signals like De Aza this offseason. The Mets already have a glut of outfielders with Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Lagares. The Mets also have Justin Ruggiano for the moment. With all of those pieces, the Mets are likely going to figure out how to piece those outfielders together. With that in mind, it is likely Cespedes is gone.
And if he is as good as gone, just let him go. He was great for the Mets for the last year and a half. He was a fan favorite, and he was a difference maker in the lineup. If the Mets believe they can build an offense without Cespedes much in the same fashion many of these same front office people did with Oakland after Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi left in free agency, more power to you. This decision right here is exactly why this front office is in place.
However, no matter what your decision, don’t smear the guy on the way out. You’re not changing the fans’ opinion on him, nor are you ever going to convince the fans you are not willing to have a payroll commensurate with the payroll a big market team should have.
With the smear campaign already in place, and the Mets not negotiating with Cespedes when they had the time, the handwriting is on the wall. We just do not know how many more days, weeks, or possibly months lie ahead before Cespedes signs elsewhere. No matter what happens from this point forward, the Mets front office better be right in how they handle this decision.
After Conor Gillaspie hit a three run homer off Jeurys Familia, and Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and T.J. Rivera went down 1-2-3 in the ninth, the Mets closed out another postseason. This one much shorter than the rest. You probably know who was the winning pitcher of the Wild Card Game, but do you know who the pitchers were that won all of the postseason clinching games the Mets have played? Good luck!
Nolan Ryan, Jerry Koosman, Tom Seaver, Ken Holtzman, Jesse Orosco, Roger McDowell, Orel Hershiser, John Franco, Russ Springer, Bobby Jones, Mike Hampton, Mike Stanton, Pedro Feliciano, Randy Flores, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Luke Hochevar, Madison Bumgarner
Do you remember who got the game winning hit in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series? It is one thing that is not often discussed because Jack Morris pitched a game so great that people cannot shake the idea that he should be a Hall of Famer. In the other dugout was a young right-hander named John Smoltz who matched Morris pitch for pitch. There were pivotal plays in that game you can point to as to why the Twins ultimately won. However, the biggest reason was Morris was able to go the distance and the young Smoltz was only able to go 7.1 innings.
Last night wasn’t the World Series. However, it was a winner-take-all game featuring just a tremendous pitching match-up. The Giants had the grizzled veteran, Madison Bumgarner, who has laid claim to the best active postseason pitcher, if not all time. The Mets were sending out Noah Syndergaard, who throws harder than anyone in baseball and is coming off a Cy Young caliber award season. Simply put, you do not get better than this.
Bumgarner and Syndergaard were even more dominant than you would’ve thought they could be. Combined, the two aces threw 227 pitches. Only six of those pitches would result in base hits. The two would combine for 16 strikeouts with just five walks. No one would reach third base against them let alone score a run. In July, this is a game that is game you would call an instant classic. In the postseason, this is a game for the ages.
In the end, what did the Mets in was the fact Syndergaard was only able to go seven, and the Mets didn’t take advantage of their chances to score off Bumgarner.
The best chance came in the fifth when T.J. Rivera hit a leadoff double. After a Jay Bruce strikeout, T.J. was quickly erased when Rene Rivera hit a grounder to the shortstop Brandon Crawford. Being the Gold Glover and smart baseball player he was, Crawford caught T.J. straying just a little too far off second. T.J. did alleviate some of the gaffe by forcing a run down that allowed Rene to get to second. Ultimately, it didn’t matter as James Loney was intentionally walked, and then Syndergaard struck out to end not just the inning, but also the Mets only real threat of the game.
It was important to cash in there as no one was scoring off these pitchers today. Syndergaard had a no-hitter going for 5.2 innings until Denard Span hit a single up the middle. Span would try to turn this into a rally by stealing second (he was caught by Rivera earlier in the game), but it didn’t matter as Curtis Granderson turned into Endy Chavez for one play:
As we would find out later in the game, Endy Chavez was the right analogy.
Overall, the Giants could do nothing against Syndergaard. He would pitch seven innings allowing just two hits while walking three. He just dominated the Giants lineup. Perhaps the best evidence of this is his 10 strikeouts on the night.
The turning point in the game was Syndergaard getting lifted. It was completely the right move, and there should be no one second guessing it. By that point, he had thrown 108 pitches, and he started to look gassed as he put the Giants to rest.
With Syndergaard out of the game, the Giants bats seemed to awaken. Conor Gillaspie (more on him in a minute) greeted Addison Reed with a leadoff single. After a Bumgarner sacrifice bunt, the Giants had a runner in scoring position with the top of their lineup coming up. Reed would get Span to pop out for the second out setting the stage for a battle with Brandon Belt. Reed really got squeezed in this at-bat with him throwing two or three clear strikes that were just not called. Not only was Reed a bit flummoxed, but Rene seemed as if he was as well. On the very next pitch, Reed got one over that Rene just missed (by the way the home plate umpire missed it too as it should have been called a strike).
This sent runners to second and third. The Mets made the obvious choice there to intentionally walk Buster Posey to get to Hunter Pence. There was an ominous tone to the inning with the umpire missing strike calls, and the Giants seemingly gaining confidence with Syndergaard out of the game. Reed then showed the world why he was the best relief pitcher in the National League this season by striking out Pence to keep the game tied up at 0-0.
After another feckless turn at the plate, the Mets brought in Jeurys Familia.
He was in trouble immediately. Crawford lined an opposite field double. On the play, Yoenis Cespedes didn’t run hard after it. If he was completely healthy, he has the speed to cut that ball off and keep Crawford at first. What we don’t know is how healthy that leg is or whether or not he has that extra gear to cut that ball off. What we do know if that he didn’t even try to do it. With Crawford on second, the Giants had the exact situation the Mets squandered in the fifth inning.
Despite Angel Pagan trying to give himself up, Familia was having issues throwing strikes to him. Many of his pitches landed short of home plate. Still, Familia battled back into the at-bat, and after Pagan was unable to get the bunt down, Familia struck him out. Familia then had similar issues with Joe Panik eventually walking him despite being 2-2 on him. This set the stage for Gillaspie to have his Gene Larkin moment:
For what it’s worth, it was Alejandro Pena that gave up the walk-off hit to Larkin. The Braves had obtained Pena from the Mets and made him the closer in the stretch drive.
Given Granderson’s catch earlier in the game, you could also refer to this as Gillaspie’s Yadier Molina moment. Older Mets fans will call this the Mike Scioscia moment.
This was a crushing blow, not just because it gave the Giants a 3-0 lead, but also because it allowed Bruce Bochy to keep Bumgarner in the game instead of going to a bullpen the Mets were desperate to get into all game long. Bumgarner came out in the ninth and made quick work of Cespedes, Granderson, and T.J.
This would be Bumgarner’s second complete game shutout on the road in the Wild Card Game. He showed the Mets and the entire world why he is the best big game pitcher in all of baseball. Oddly enough, he had been bested by the Mets young ace, Syndergaard. While Syndergaard might’ve bested him, Bumgarner outlasted him. Ultimately, that is why the Giants are going to Chicago and why the Mets season is over.
If you’re not a Mets fan, this has to be one of the best baseball games you have ever seen in your life. If you are a Mets fan, you walk away taking stock in the fact that Syndergaard had the game of his life at a time when the Mets needed him most. This year, Syndergaard didn’t just establish himself as the Mets ace; he established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Last night, he took that a step further by announcing he’s a big game pitcher that’s every bit as good as Bumgarner. In what has been a tough end to the season, Syndergaard gives you hope for the future.
As we head to the Wild Card Game, we already know that we are going to see an epic pitching matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. Presumably, this game is going to be won and lost on which pitcher blinks first and allows a run. It is going to be a daunting task for both offenses.
In Bumgarner’s career, he has made six starts against the Mets going 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP. In four starts at Citi Field, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP. Bumgarner faced the Mets twice this year with very different results.
On a May 1st game at Citi Field, Bumgarner earned the win pitching six shutout innings allowing six hits and three walks while striking out seven. On an August 18th game at AT&T Park, in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel against Jacob deGrom, both pitchers struggled. Bumgarner still got the win despite allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks with six strikeouts over just five innings.
With that in mind, looking at the recent history, the Mets do have something to build their confidence against Bumgarner as they head into Wednesday’s game. There’s reason for confidence because the healthy Mets on the 40 man roster have actually fared well against Bumgarner:
Presumable Starting Lineup
- Jose Reyes 3-9
- Asdrubal Cabrera 3-7, 2 RBI, K
- Yoenis Cespedes 3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB, 3 K
- Curtis Granderson 0-3, BB, K
- Jay Bruce 3-23, HR, 4 RBI, 6 K
- T.J. Rivera 2-3
- Lucas Duda 0-1
- Rene Rivera 2-3, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
- Noah Syndergaard 0-2, K
Bench:
- Eric Campbell 1-5, BB, 3 K
- Michael Conforto 0-3, 2 K
- Travis d’Arnaud 0-4, 2 BB, 3 K
- Kelly Johnson 7-20, 5 K
- Ty Kelly 1-2, BB
- Juan Lagares 1-9, K
- James Loney 2-13, 2B, RBI, BB, 5 K
- Kevin Plawecki 1-3
Have Never Faced Bumgarner (2016 against LHP):
- Gavin Cecchini 1-3, 2B, RBI
- Alejandro De Aza 8-41, 3 2B, RBI, 5 BB, 13 K
- Brandon Nimmo 2-7, BB, K
- Matt Reynolds 8-27, 6 2B, HR, 6 RBI, BB, 6 K
Look, anytime you face Bumgarner in an elimination game, you should not feel comfortable. In the 2014 Wild Card Game, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit, one walk, 10 strikeout shutout. In Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner came out of the bullpen on two days rest to throw five shutout innings to give the Giants their third World Series title in five years.
Once again, this is an even numbered year, and the Giants are once again sending Bumgarner out to the mound to begin the run to another World Series. Standing in his way is 60’6″ postseason Syndergaard and a collection of Mets bats that have hit him well. The Mets have a good chance to win this game.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.
With the addition of John Olerud and the emergence of Rick Reed, the 1997 Mets made a tremendous leap forward going 88-74 to be a factor in the Wild Card race. However, they would eventually lose out to a Florida Marlins team that was literally built to win the World Series that one season.
After that season, the Marlins disbanded because, as we were first learning out, that’s what the Marlins do when they win. The Mets were one of the main beneficiaries of the the offseason sell-off with them obtaining Al Leiter and Dennis Cook. Then the real boon came when the Marlins had swung a deal with the Dodgers to obtain Mike Piazza to unload a bunch of big contracts. With the Mets struggling, due in large part to Todd Hundley‘s elbow injury, the Mets moved quickly and added Piazza. With a week left in the season, the Mets won to go to 88-68. All the Mets needed to do in the final week of the season was to win one more game to at least force a playoff with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs for the Wild Card. They didn’t. Once again, finishing the year 88-74 was not good enough for the Wild Card.
Entering the final game of the 2016 season, with the Mets having already clinched the Wild Card, the Mets needed just one more win to finish the year at 88-74.
There was a version of me 20 years younger that wanted to see the Mets get that win to erase some of the bad feelings that an 88-74 record created. It was going to be a difficult task because the Mets objective wasn’t to win this game. The sole objective was to just get through it with everybody healthy so as not to compromise the team for the winner-take-all Wild Card Game this Wednesday at Citi Field.
For starters, it was Gabriel Ynoa who took the mound instead of Noah Syndergaard. Terry Collins would also give an at-bat a piece to Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes. Jay Bruce would get two. T.J. Rivera, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera, and Travis d’Arnaud would not play. This was a full-on keep people fresh and don’t get anyone injured operation.
Ynoa would acquit himself well even if he couldn’t go five. He would only throw 52 pitches in 4.2 innings allowing five hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with two strikeouts. Collins would lift him for Jerry Blevins, who is probably the one Mets reliever who could’ve used some work, to get out of the fifth. At that point, the Phillies were only up 1-0 on a third inning Maikel Franco RBI single.
The Mets would eventually go ahead in this game making the 88-74 season a reality. In the sixth, Matt Reynolds doubled, and he would score on an Alejandro De Aza RBI singles. In the seventh, Kelly Johnson hit a leadoff single, and he would score on a Kevin Plawecki two out RBI double.
The lead would not last long as the Phillies went to work against Erik Goeddel in the bottom of the seventh. After an Andres Blanco single, an Aaron Altherr walk, and a Lucas Duda throwing error, the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs. Cesar Hernandez brought home the first two runs on an RBI single, and then Jimmy Paredes knocked in the third run of the inning with a sacrifice fly. That Paerdes sacrifice fly was an extra base hit if anyone other than Juan Lagares was manning center field. Lagares once again reminded everyone that he is the best fielding center fielder in baseball, and that if he can at least manage one at-bat per game, he needs to be on the postseason roster.
The Phillies then added a run in the eighth off Jim Henderson to make the game 5-2. That would be the final score of a game where both teams reached their primary objective. The Phillies were able to provide a fitting send-off for Ryan Howard removing him from the game in the eighth so he could leave to a standing ovation. The Mets just got through the game without suffering any injuries, and also got much needed reps for Duda and Lagares.
The Mets weren’t able to get that final win to erase the angst of the past when 88 wins just wasn’t good enough for the postseason. Ironically, 87 was good enough this year. With those 87 wins, the Mets put the capper on a mostly frustrating season. However, in the end, they were able to go to make consecutive postseason appearances for only the second time in their history. When viewed through that prism, this was a successful and enjoyable season.