Carlos Beltran
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.
All signs point to the New York Mets signing Juan Soto. Steve Cohen will not be outdone here, and he’s found a player seemingly eager to be the next great player to come to the Mets.
Arguably, Soto would be THE best hitter to ever don a Mets uniform. When you go to the create a player on MLB the Show, in terms of hitting, it looks like Soto.
At 26, the Mets would be getting their next Mike Piazza, Carlos Beltran, or Francisco Lindor, i.e. a future Hall of Famer in their prime. However, Soto might be the most promising.
That’s from an offensive standpoint. Defensively, it’s an entirely different discussion.
Yes, Soto has been nominated for a Gold Glove the past two years. However, seeing how Lindor can’t get nominated, we see how much stock we should put into that process.
Soto is not a good outfielder. He had a -1 OAA in 2024, and he has a cumulative -25 OAA over the past three seasons. Over that time frame, he has rated as the worst defensive right fielder in all of baseball.
Making matters worse is Soto’s speed. He’s slow. To put it into perspective, DJ Stewart is faster. There were only six right fielders in all of baseball slower than him.
As a result, he’s a poor to middling base runner. Put another way, he’s effectively a one tool player, but that one tool is so worth it.
That goes double for the Mets. Soto hits .333/.466/.709 at Citi Field. That’s Barry Bonds PED level production.
That production takes the Mets to the next level. Instead of losing in six games to the Los Angeles Dodgers they beat them. He’s that much of a difference maker.
Of course, contracts are not made in a bubble. They carry long term risks. As noted, we can argue Soto is already poised to move to DH, and we don’t know his feelings on being a full-time DH.
Of course, some of the concern could be mitigated with opt outs. That creates the drama of revisiting this every few years. It could also hasten a mistake contact in the future.
All told, there are obvious risks with Soto signing a megadeal. We can’t pretend they don’t exist. It’s something that needs to be considered, especially for David Stearns who puts an emphasis on run prevention.
All told, the Mets still should do everything possible to sign him. He’s the perfect fit for this team. They’re blessed to have an owner who won’t hamstring building this roster because of this deal.
Soto should be a Met even if we should stop pretending this deal would carry significant risks.
Good on the New York Mets players for making the decision hard for the front office. What once looked like a team that would be sellers is now a team who is in Wild Card position.
Certainly, the players don’t want to waste this opportunity. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have already publicly put pressure on the front office to be buyers.
However, this is David Stearns at the helm, and he’s cut different. He looks to sustainable winners, not one-and-done teams. Remember, this is the same person who traded Josh Hader when the Milwaukee Brewers were in first place.
Looking at the Mets, they’re on the precipice of building that sustainable winner. They have starting pitching prospects less than three years away. They have position player talent closer than that.
The question for this organization is do they sacrifice the future for this year. Of course, it’s a balancing act. Certainly, the Mets can be on the alert for more Phil Maton type deals. However, the real difference making players come at a real cost.
There’s an argument for an alternative path. That path has been forged already by José Buttó.
For his part, Buttó had struggled in his early Major League starts. He was far better this year, and eventually, partially out of necessity, he was moved to the Major League bullpen.
As a reliever, he is 3-0 with one save and a 0.84 ERA. With him and Maton, the Mets have two reliable arms in front of Edwin Díaz. Obviously, a team with a 4.07 FIP, the tenth worst in the majors, needs more help.
If the Mets aren’t inclined to trade off top prospects to do that, maybe they should be using those top prospects in 2024.
Again, Buttó’s move there has paid dividends. There’s a chance Tylor Megill can help there. Looking at David Peterson, his experience out of the pen last year appears to be helping him as a starter this year.
It’s something we have seen work against the Mets in the past. No one needs to be reminded of Adam Wainwright striking out Carlos Beltran to end the 2006 NLCS.
Keep in mind, Wainwright was struggling in Triple-A with the Cardinals. He had a 4.64 Triple-A ERA. He proved to be a better Major Leaguer.
At the moment, the Mets have a trio of struggling starting pitching prospects in Triple-A: Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil. Looking forward, Hamel and Vasil will need to be added to the 40 man roster before the 2024 Rule 5 Draft this offseason.
Rather than trade these players (or others), why not give them a look in the bullpen. Let’s see Hamel’s high spin rates fool batters. Tidwell’s fastball/slider combination appears ready for a MLB bullpen now. Let’s get Vasil away from the ABS system.
Let’s see what these young arms can do now. We’ve seen teams do this all the time to help them win. For that matter, Stearns did that in Milwaukee with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff.
Stearns knows how to execute this plan. He knows how to take starting pitching prospects and move them to the bullpen with an eye towards eventually using them as Major League starters here.
The plan makes sense for the Mets in the short term. It could payoff in the long term. Perhaps, this is the way to improve the Mets bullpen now while working to develop their top prospects.
Want to know the quickest way to find out someone knows nothing about baseball? Let them tell you Francisco Lindor isn’t worth his contract.
When Steve Cohen officially took over as New York Mets owner, he quickly announced to the world the days of the Wilpons was over. He did that by not only authorizing the trade for Lindor, but also by establishing a personal relationship with the player.
This wasn’t Curtis Granderson and salmon. It was Lindor invited to Cohen’s home to have dinner with his family. Then, the mega deal came.
10 years. $341 million.
The contract was a statement. It’s been a constant talking point. It’s a lightning rod for a Mets team who has underperformed what we expected them to do when Cohen took over.
Make no mistake the contract is not the reason for the Mets relative struggles. It’s hasn’t stopped Cohen from spending. Moreover, Lindor has been great.
Since coming to the Mets, Lindor has an 18.1 WAR, 119 wRC+, and a 21 OAA. People just don’t understand how great these numbers are.
By WAR, Lindor is the 8th best player in all of baseball since joining the Mets. His wRC+ is tied for 36th overall and third among shortstops. His OAA is the third best and second among shortstops.
Lindor is a top 10 player in baseball. At worst, he’s a top two shortstop. He plays everyday giving the Mets a Gold Glove at short a with 30/30 caliber offensive threat.
He’s giving the Mets what Carlos Beltran and David Wright once did. Like with Beltran, he had a slow start to his Mets career before becoming that superstar player forever judged by a massive contract and early animosity with the fans.
With Lindor, it was him and Javier Báez and the thumbs down. For Beltran, it was poor reaction to the booing and the initial unwillingness to answer the curtain calls.
Despite the early difficulties, Lindor has played like a future Hall of Famer with the Mets. He’s been a leader and a superstar. He’s been worth every penny.
When Lindor signed his deal, 1.0 WAR was worth about $9.5 million. At an 18.1 WAR, Lindor has been worth $171.95 million. Through the end of this year, he will be paid $126.4.
That means he’s provided the additional value of a player who has provided a 4.4 WAR per year. That’s essentially what Pete Alonso has provided the Mets in his career.
Think about that for a moment. Lindor providing production at a level equivalent to his play and Alonso’s. He’s providing value equivalent to TWO superstar players.
And yet, somehow, people want to question whether he’s worth the money?!?!?! If you’re paying attention, and actually understand the dynamics, he’s been worth more than he’s being paid.
Lindor is a superstar. He’s a future Hall of Famer. His 12 will be retired by the Mets, and he will have a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. He’s been worth far more money than the Mets have paid him, and that will likely remain the case throughout his Mets career.
According to various reports, the New York Mets are out on Shohei Ohtani. The Mets are not at fault here.
The fact of the matter is Ohtani doesn’t want to come to New York. He doesn’t want the media attention and responsibility that comes along with New York.
Certainly, Ohtani has spent his entire life in the limelight. He gets more attention than just about any baseball player. He understands the responsibilities that comes with being the best player in the game.
And yet, he’s being a bit short-sighted here, and thus, is making a mistake.
Frankly, the Mets history is replete with players who didn’t want to deal with New York. Even worse, it’s full of players who just don’t want the Mets.
However, for the most part, when they come here, they love it here.
The classic example was Keith Hernandez. He was devastated about the trade to the Mets. He was persuaded to stay, and it led to his being a beloved player with his number retired.
Time and again, Darryl Strawberry has said he regrets leaving the Mets. Players like Cliff Floyd and Billy Wagner were at one point skeptical of being a Met only to sign in free agents and cherish being a part of this team.
Mike Piazza was shockingly traded to the Mets. Even more of a shock, he’d get booed by the fans. Despite that, he signed a deal on the eve of free agency, became one of the most beloved players, and dons a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
There was Curtis Granderson who came to the Mets in free agency after his New York Yankees tenure. He talked about how he heard Mets fans were real fans and later said Mets fans were louder.
Even a player like Carlos Beltran keeps finding his way back to the Mets. He didn’t initially want to come. The Wilpons made him want to leave, and yet he’s returned twice.
Point is there’s something special about being a Met. Even the most reluctant end up loving the experience and want to forever be a part of the franchise.
Ohtani is passing on that partially because he doesn’t want the New York media scrutiny and attention. Being fair here, that’s about to follow him anywhere he goes.
He’s also missing out on a city that would allow him to live somewhat in obscurity. After all, this is a city where Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino live. Harry Potter lives there. Hell, Spike Lee not only lives there, but he’s at every New York Knicks game.
New York comes with attention, but it also allows for a somewhat normal life. Being fair, Ohtani gets the same with Los Angeles.
With the Mets, Ohtani would get Steve Cohen who is not afraid to spend. He’s also an owner who wants his players to feel welcome and be like family.
There’s an adoring fanbase desperate to embrace him.
That’s not to say the Mets are the best fit for Ohtani. In the end, only Ohtani can figure that out for himself. To some degree, he has and is nearing a decision.
It’s just unfortunate he’s ruling out a team that could change his life for the better. Yes, the Mets need Ohtani, and he doesn’t need the Mets. That still doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a great experience for him.
In the end, Ohtani should’ve given it more of a chance, and that is mostly why he’s making a mistake.
The expectations were once David Stearns came to the New York Mets the team was going to hire Craig Counsell to be their next manager. That seemed all the more to be the case when the main competition seemed likely to come from the Houston Astros, who didn’t seem as serious about him as the Mets were.
Of course, we now know the Chicago Cubs gave Counsell exactly what the Mets could offer – a large market and a big contract. However, Chicago is closer to home for Counsell, and it doesn’t come with the issues presented by the New York media, who have sometimes been all too happy to run managers out of town.
This is a situation somewhat similar to what we saw with Steve Kerr. He was practically hired to coach the New York Knicks until he wasn’t. Golden State had all of what New York had to offer without the media or front office issues. For the Mets, the front office issues aren’t present.
With Counsell taking the surprise offer from a Cubs team who had not fired David Ross as their manager, the Mets were left looking to hire someone else. Because the Mets did their due diligence, and didn’t just go through the process to hire Counsell, they were able to quickly pivot to Carlos Mendoza.
At this point, we should remember Stearns was entasked with hiring a manager. Not with hiring Counsell, but with hiring a manager. He did that with Mendoza.
The reviews on this hire are all over the place, but that is partially the result of this shocking nature of the turn of events. You’ll see the loudmouths and naysayers killing the decision. The sycophants and optimists love the move.
In reality, no one can really know what to make of this decision.
On the bright side, it’s not Buck Showalter, who was a mediocre manager who fought against the modern game. From here, we don’t know if Mendoza will be Luis Rojas or Kevin Cash. With Rojas and Cash, we see what separated them was the front office.
Rojas was neutered from the start in the wake of the rash Carlos Beltran firing. Rojas was handed scripts from which he couldn’t deviate. In essence, he was never truly allowed to manage, and he became the fall guy for a poorly led and frankly clueless front office.
Cash has succeeded with an exceptionally run Tampa Bay Rays organization. They gave him what he needed to succeed, and to his credit he has. In essence, this means Stearns has to make good on this hire.
It is incumbent on Stearns to first give Mendoza the staff and data to be successful. More importantly, Stearns has to build the right roster. If he does that, we can the strengths and reputation Mendoza had lead to him being a successful Mets manager.
If that is the case, we can see him quickly in the postseason like Willie Randolph (a good name to throw in here for bench coach) did with the Mets. From what we saw in Milwaukee, we can and should expect that. After all, Counsell was a losing manager before he and Stearns turned things around there.
Back in 1998, Nelson Doubleday went down the hall and told Fred Wilpon the New York Mets were going to go out and get Mike Piazza. When Wilpon brought up the injured Todd Hundley (lost for most of that year), Doubleday said they were getting Piazza.
That was the way it was with Doubleday. He made sure the Mets went out and got the best players. He was in charge when they got Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter. Sure, it led to disaster with Bobby Bonilla, Vince Coleman, Eddie Murray, and Bret Saberhagen, but the team was always trying to bring in the best players.
Being fair to the Wilpons here, they did learn their lesson after they let Mike Hampton walk in free agency, and the team refused to go out and get Alex Rodriguez. When that 2000 pennant winner blew up with those decisions, they went out and got Omar Minaya and pivoted.
When Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez were free agents, Minaya made sure they were Mets. Then, the Madoff scandal happened, and the Mets would not bet the Mets again until Steve Cohen took over the franchise.
When the Wilpons were faced with having to sell, they hired Brodie Van Wagenen to completely mortgage the future and try to win one last World Series before they had to hand the franchise to someone else. Their big move and big salary they took on was Robinson Cano.
That was partially because Cano wanted to come back to New York, and Van Wagenen was doing a favor to his former client. It also helped the Seattle Mariners were eating money on the contract regardless of whether or not Cano was eligible to play.
That same offseason, Bryce Harper was a free agent. Harper was a player who belonged on the biggest stage. Harper loved the Mets pitching and was highly complimentary of them during the 2018 All-Star Game:
For a player that wanted to win, the Mets would have been in the conversation if the team pursued him. Instead, the Mets were set with Cano, and then they tried to sell us having no $30 million players is the same thing as having two.
https://x.com/TimBritton/status/1088516450019627008?s=20
With that, Harper went to the Philadelphia Phillies with him really having no other realistic suitors. Since that time, he has won the 2021 NL MVP and 2022 NLCS MVP. He has completely altered the trajectory of the Phillies franchise who is in consecutive NLCSs.
Helping Harper and the Phillies get there is Zack Wheeler. Van Wagenen tried to sell us they replaced Wheeler in the rotation with Marcus Stroman despite both pitching in the same rotation in 2019. He then went on to tell everyone Wheeler was only good for two halves of his entire career despite his being the best free agent starter on the market.
Wheeler asked the Mets to stay after he was almost traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. He asked to stay for less when he hit free agency. He didn’t want to uproot his New Jersey family making it between the Mets and Phillies for him. The Mets didn’t want him. Instead, we got Rick Porcello.
Wheeler has been a Cy Young caliber pitcher with the Phillies. He has been a postseason ace. With Harper, he has the Phillies back in the NLCS.
This never should have happened. This was Wilpon and Van Wagenen incompetence. Fortunately now, the Mets have an owner that is not going to let this type of nonsense happen again.
This probably should be the last straw for Buck Showalter. Every single time you think things can’t get worse, it gets worse.
It all started going bad in Atlanta last year. The Mets needed to win just one game to win the division. Instead, they were swept to complete a historic collapse.
The Mets followed that with a loss in the Wild Card Series. In the decisive Game 3, Showalter waited too long to have Joe Musgrove’s ears inspected, and he looked weak doing it.
This Mets team was supposed to be an NL East contender. At the moment, they’re 30-33 sitting in fourth place 8.5 games out of first place.
The season has hopefully reached its nadir as the Mets got swept by the Atlanta Braves. It marked the first time in Mets history where they lost three straight games they led by three runs.
The Mets are reeling losing six straight. Neither Max Scherzer nor Justin Verlander looked good. The bullpen is a mess. Worse yet, Showalter is proud of the team?
This just feels like the final straw for a souring fanbase. The fanbase was souring well before this senseless quote.
There’s the Daniel Vogelbach fascination. Batting Francisco Álvarez last. His general mistrust of young players leading Mark Vientos from being red hot in Triple-A to ice cold when he’s needed most.
There should be fingers pointed in many different directions, but usually, in these circumstances, it’s the manager who goes.
Admittedly, it’s not likely Showalter is fired. Same goes for Billy Eppler. At least not yet. However, that doesn’t mean the Mets shouldn’t do it.
At the moment, their hopes like with their young players. However, Showalter is reticent to fully deploy them, and we see him trying to hold them back. It’s really time for him to go.
Part of the issue is hiring interim managers is messy. You can’t conduct a full search. Oft times, you’re hiring a coach from a failed staff or shoe-horning a guy atop an existing staff.
If the Mets were to fire Showalter, they should consider hiring Carlos Beltrán as the interim manager.
Beltrán is already with the organization. He’s a name who could excite the fanbase and bring some juice to the team.
In the past, Beltrán was definitively not the guy. However, due to current circumstances, he could be exactly what the Mets need.
With much of the Mets hopes tied to Álvarez, Brett Baty, and Vientos, we should remember Beltrán mentored David Wright and Jose Reyes. He is also well aware of what Francisco Lindor is going through this year.
There’s a lot he knows. There’s so much more he doesn’t. It’s a free try for the Mets to see if he can. If he can’t, the season is teetering on lost anyway, and that’s with a manager who has done this for 22 years.
There’s also the karma of giving Beltrán the job after it was wrongly and needlessly taken away from him. If there’s any org that needs good karma right now, it’s the Mets.
Ultimately, this will not happen. Not now. Perhaps not ever.
Just because it won’t doesn’t mean it shouldn’t. We can dicker over Beltrán or the next guy (Eric Chávez?), but what is becoming incredibly clear is the Mets need a change. Showalter needs a change.
If the Mets do pull the trigger and fire Showalter, it will be a decision we can be proud of.
When the World Baseball Classic rolls around, there is a fear it is going to negatively impact the players. Certainly, Buck Showalter has spoken out about that recently. If you are a defeatist New York Mets fan, you can point to J.J. Putz participating in the 2013 WBC before having the worst season of his career.
However, to be fair there, Putz was already injured. As had been reported, Putz wasn’t really given a physical, and that he was pushed to pitch through a painful bone spur which hindered his performance. That was back in the days of Jeff Wilpon making medical decisions which included forcing an injured and shut down Pedro Martinez to pitch and attempting to prevent Carlos Beltran from having career saving knee surgery.
Going back to Beltran, he participated for Puerto Rico in the inaugural 2006 World Baseball Classic. In fact, the Mets had a heavy contingent of players at that event, which included:
- Carlos Beltran (Puerto Rico)
- Endy Chavez (Venezuela)
- Carlos Delgado (Puerto Rico)
- Pedro Feliciano (Puerto Rico)
- Jose Reyes (Dominican Republic)
- Duaner Sanchez (Dominican Republic)
- Jose Valentin (Puerto Rico)
Looking at that list, each and everyone one of these players had a great 2006 season, and their great seasons started by playing in the World Baseball Classic.
Beltran went from the biggest free agent bust in baseball history, even worse than Bobby Bonilla. Beltran probably should have won the 2006 NL MVP as he was an All-Star while winning the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. He probably should have won the MVP award with his finishing second to just Albert Pujols in WAR. Arguably, this remains the single best regular season in Mets history.
Chavez would also have a career year. He was always a great fielder, but he could not hit. He would have a 101 wRC+ while playing great defensively. We still talk about that catch robbing Scott Rolen of a home run to this day.
Delgado had a very good year in his first year with the Mets. However, he would be special in the postseason hitting four home runs.
Feliciano was almost left off the Mets Opening Day roster after returning to the organization after a year in Japan. He stayed on the roster, and he would have a breakout season which led him on a path to becoming the best LOOGY in Mets history.
Sanchez was a reliever Omar Minaya gambled on when he traded Jae Weong Seo to get him. Minaya looked like a genius as Sanchez might’ve been the best set-up man that season, and if he didn’t get in that cab, the Mets probably win the World Series that season.
Entering 2006, Reyes was still this great raw talent who had not been able to harness his ability. That 2006 season was the season which Reyes became that dynamic lead-off hitter and shortstop the Mets knew he could be. He learned plate discipline, hit for power, and of course, stole bases. He was a first time All-Star, and he had what proved to be the best season of his career.
Finally, there was Valentin. In the previous season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the then 35 year old looked done as he hit .170/.326/.265. To be honest, things didn’t look all that great in April for Valentin. However, due to a myriad of injuries at second base, he was given the job, and he was the missing piece that roster needed. He capped off a great season by hitting two homers in the NL East clincher.
That Mets team was a special team, and it still goes down as one of the best regular seasons in team history. For that to happen, they needed almost everything to break right, and it did. That process all started with these Mets players participating in the WBC.
Looking forward to 2023, the Mets are sending a heavy contingent of players including very important ones like Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Jeff McNeil, and Francisco Lindor. If 2006 is any guide, this should be a springboard for these and the other Mets participating meaning we are about to see another great Mets season.