Brooks Raley
At the moment, no one should be making a big deal out of beating the New York Yankees. They are without Aaron Judge, and they’re reeling.
Since the Citi Field iteration of the Subway Series, they’re 14-18 dropping to last place in the AL East. Of course, that makes them a much better team than the New York Mets.
Speaking of the Mets, they’ve been nearly unwatchable. There is just so much wrong you don’t even know where to begin. However, on a night where the Mets walloped the Yankees 9-3, you begin to dream again.
In that 9-3 win, you saw exactly what you expected this Mets season to be. It started with Justin Verlander, who was dominant over six shutout innings.
While he was dominating, the offense was clicking. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor each had three hit games with two of Alonso’s being homers.
Alonso is red hot at the plate after struggling once he came off the IL. He’s not the only Met heating up with Jeff McNeil’s bat coming to life.
McNeil had a two hit night. He now has a four game hitting streak and has a hit in six of his last eight games. He’s getting closer to being what he would be all this season.
Brandon Nimmo scored two runs. There was a Daniel Vogelbach sighting. Mark Vientos hit a pinch hit double.
It wasn’t perfect from an offensive standpoint, but there was a lot to like from the offense. That includes scoring two runs off the best bullpen in baseball.
The bullpen wasn’t exactly great. It was one off night for Brooks Raley in an otherwise good season. David Robertson got the Mets out of a bases loaded jam in the eighth, and Adam Ottavino handled the ninth with no problems.
This was the Mets team we expected all season. This had the look of a Mets team who you think could make a miracle run.
After the game, Velander was saying he didn’t want to go anywhere. As a team, the Mets are talking like a team who doesn’t believe their season is over, and Robertson has been rankled by questions over him moving at the deadline.
So, for a night, you can believe the Mets have what it takes to make a miracle run. However, it’s just one night. The Mets have effectively run out of time to make a run before the trade deadline.
It will be interesting to see what the Washington Nationals series brings before the deadline. It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets do. Mostly, whatever team is left, let’s see what the Mets do with an August schedule conducive to making a run.
The New York Mets are a disaster at the moment. We have seen the return of the dreaded June Swoon with this team. They are 6-16 this month, and you can only see things getting worse.
The NL East is no longer within reach, and the same may be true for the Wild Card. The Mets are 16 games behind the Atlanta Braves. They are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. In the NL, only the St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, and Washington Nationals have a worse record than the Mets. The Mets have lost a series to all three of those teams.
During this time, Buck Showalter has been a disaster.
The lineups are not analytically driven. Starling Marte has never been the option to bat second, and he’s even less of one when he is not healthy. Really, Showalter has flaunted his disdain for analytics by pointing out how he used them to tell Tommy Pham what they had to say about him.
Showalter is getting testy with reporters who are finally seeking accountability. When pressed as to why he didn’t use David Robertson in the eighth when the game was on the line, Showalter sounded dumbfounded as to how he would use his closer during the most important part of the game.
What made that worse was while Showalter was espousing Adam Ottavino was unavailable, Ottavino was saying he was good to pitch. Fast-forward to the next game, we see Showalter using Robertson, Ottavino, and Brooks Raley in a loss. It would be difficult to argue he wasn’t being passive aggressive.
At this point, you have to start to wonder if Showalter is trying to get fired. Steve Cohen pumped all this money into analytics only for the manager to ignore it. That’s all well and good when you’re winning, but at the moment, no one is playing worse baseball than the Mets.
For some reason, Cohen is not acting. He is sitting idly by as all the money he has invested has been absolutely wasted. The analytics investments have been wasted by the manger. The money for payroll has been wasted by Billy Eppler who built a flawed roster. Moreover, the player development investment is being wasted.
We get back to Showalter here. Showalter would rather lose with veterans than try to win with rookies. He’s gone out of his way to marginalize the young players on this roster.
At some point, the focus needs to be on Cohen,. Why is he so content to allow his GM and manager to just waste hundreds of millions of dollars? Why is he not motivated to take action when the Mets are becoming laughingstocks again?
Yes, Eppler built a poor roster. Certainly, Showalter has gone out of his way to make things worse. However, in the end, Cohen has the ability to make changes, and he is not making them. Sooner or later, we need to hold him accountable for his inaction.
When we discuss the New York Mets bullpen, it always need the caveat that the Mets are without Edwin Díaz. Naturally, not having the best closer in baseball is going to severely impact your bullpen and how it is constructed.
For example, David Robertson was signed to be the eighth inning set-up man. That means he steps up to closer with everyone filling in behind him. That naturally weakens the bullpen even with Robertson being almost as good as Díaz was last season.
Now, if the Mets had Robertson and Díaz, they would have the 8th and 9th innings completely locked down. However, they would still have issues with the earlier innings. That was always going to be the place, but for some reason, that was always going to be the plan.
The Mets are suffering from that plan. Putting aside the plan, here are who the Mets key set-up relievers were supposed to be, and here is how they are performing this season:
- Adam Ottavino 0-2, 4.38 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.79 FIP
- Brooks Raley 1-1, 3.10 ERA, 136 ERA+, 4.52 FIP
- Drew Smith 3-2, 3.74 ERA, 112 ERA+, 4.03 FIP
Raley and Smith have been alright, but they have not been dominant. Ottavino has struggled. What is really concerning with this trio is when you look at their FIP, they are over performing how they are pitching. The last thing the Mets can afford is any of them to regress, and from the looks of it, all of them are due for a regression.
Past them, it’s been a revolving door of relievers. The flavor of the week is Jeff Brigham and Dominic Leone. Previously, it was Jimmy Yacabonis, Denyi Reyes, Dennis Santana, John Curtiss, etc. The only conclusion to be drawn from these names is Billy Eppler and the Mets purposefully opted for relievers who can go back-and-forth instead of one or two more established arms.
The end result of all of this is a bad Mets bullpen. Their 4.17 bullpen ERA is 10th worst in the majors and fifth worst in the NL. The 4.51 FIP is sixth worst overall and third worst in the NL. Overall, the bullpen is just plain bad even with Robertson being dominant.
It needs to be reiterated the Carlos Correa deal fell through. That left the Mets with money to spend on the bullpen, and they didn’t. They instead wanted to go with a bunch of journeymen like Tommy Hunter. Again, this was the plan.
With that being the plan, we should not be surprised the bullpen has not been good. Chances are, it will get worse, at least from what we see with the team FIP. While the Mets didn’t plan on this being the case, that is the end result of their plan, and frankly, they should not be surprised by these results.
Brandon Nimmo was the player of the game for the New York Mets. He knocked in the first run with a sacrifice fly. Later in the game, he hit a two RBI double which put the Mets up for good.
Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil both had a two hit game. Things were going so well for the Mets we even saw Daniel Vogelbach acting like a speed demon around the bases.
Max Scherzer was great for five, but he stumbled in the sixth giving up the three run lead. Still, he got the win because of the aforementioned Nimmo RBI double in the seventh.
There was also some terrific defense from Francisco Lindor. The hitting and defense was expected. The bullpen stepping up for Scherzer and the Mets was a pleasant surprise.
After Edwin Díaz went down for the season, how the Mets were going to finish games was very much in question. At least for the season opener, it was seamless.
Drew Smith was first up. After allowing a lead-off double to Jorge Soler. Smith didn’t allow another hit and would strike out two.
Brooks Raley made his Mets debut in the eighth. He’d pitch a 1-2-3 inning.
That led to David Robertson for the ninth. Robertson was signed to be the eighth inning set-up reliever, but with Díaz out for the year, he’s now the closer.
The good news is Robertson has been a very good closer in his career. More than that, he’s thrived in New York. In many ways, that makes him the perfect stopgap.
Well, he was perfect in his first save opportunity with the Mets. After striking out the first two, he got Soler to fly out to end the game.
The Mets won on Opening Day. That’s what they do. Sooner or later, we will find out if shutting down the opponent is what this bullpen does. At least for this game, the bullpen looked great, and if that’s the case, the Mets will be great.
GAME NOTES: Justin Verlander was put on the IL before the game. Bryce Montes de Oca underwent Tommy John surgery. Jacob deGrom made his first start with the Texas Rangers. He allowed more extra base hits against the Philadelphia Phillies than he had ever allowed in a game.
Back in 2015, the New York Mets made the mistake of trading Michael Fulmer to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. No, it was not a mistake to obtain Cespedes, but rather, Fulmer was far too high a price to pay. As it would turn out, the Mets needed starting pitching the ensuing two seasons where Fulmer was winning Rookie of the Year and being named an All-Star.
Well, from there, Fulmer had some injury prone years and moved to the bullpen. For his part, Cespedes needed double heel surgery, and then, he would have an incident falling off his horse or something with a feral hog during his rehab. The details are still murky.
Regardless, the Detroit Tigers received a 12.2 WAR out of Fulmer and a prospect at the trade deadline. The Mets received an epic run from Cespedes amounting to a 2.1 WAR and not postseason production at the plate past Game 3 of the NLDS. In essence, the Mets made a win-now trade and didn’t win.
Fast-forward to 2023, and Fulmer is a free agent while Cespedes is trying to get back into the majors. The Mets are also looking to build a bullpen which can get them their first World Series since 1986. It already looks formidable with the following relievers in place:
There are other pitchers in the mix, but these are the relievers who are guaranteed. With five starters, that leaves up to four more relievers who can be added. The presumption is at least two of Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill, and David Peterson will start the season in Triple-A to provide organizational starting pitching depth.
That probably leaves pitchers like Jeff Brigham and John Curtiss on more of a solid footing to make the Opening Day bullpen than they probably should. Even with those names likely to make the bullpen, the Mets are still at least one arm short.
Fulmer, 29, would be an excellent fit. As a reliever, he has a 128 ERA+. As per Baseball Savant, he does an exceptional job limiting hard contact and barrels. We’ve also seen Jeremy Hefner work well with pitchers how have a similar repertoire. All told, he probably remains the best arm remaining on the market.
While we are very confident in this Mets roster, they probably remain an arm short in the bullpen. Fulmer would go a long way to resolving that issue and make this Mets team even better. All this time later, the Mets now need to sign Fulmer instead of trading him to try to help put this Mets team over the top.
The New York Mets acquired Brooks Raley from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Keyshawn Askew. It’s the type of trade where you really have to wonder what the Mets are doing.
First and foremost, you never trade with the Rays. That goes double when it comes to pitching. They always come up on top.
On that front, the Mets have the GM who grossly overpaid for Tyler Naquin and Darin Ruf at the trade deadline. He also couldn’t build a winner with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
There may be a GM out there who will get the better of the Rays, but Billy Eppler is just about the least likely candidate. On the subject of Eppler, Naquin, and Ruf, Eppler has been far too cavalier trading prospects for moderate gains (if that).
Raley will turn 35 next season. In his career, he’s been a LOOGY, but we’re in the era of the three batter rule which neutralizes LOOGYS. In reality, it should make them an endangered species.
The counter is Raley was good against RHB last season, and that’s true. However, that came with a .281 BABIP. His career mark against RHP entering the season was .296.
That’s not too surprising with Park Factors rating Tropicana Field as an extreme pitchers park. Another factor is how well the Rays shift. On that note, there’s no more shifting next season.
Digging deeper, the 2022 season was an anomaly for Raley in total. It was his only season with an ERA lower than 3.94 and one of only two under 4.78. It was one one of his two seasons with an ERA+ higher than 94 and an FIP lower than 3.94.
Again, to buy this trade as a good idea, you’re buying he finally discovered it at 34 well past the prime of normal players. There is something to be said for his increased slider use, and it is a great slider.
Brooks Raley, Disgusting 83mph Slider. 🤮
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 18, 2022
19 inches of horizontal break. pic.twitter.com/c3cxSg5G49
However, batters and teams catch up over time. His 5.00 ERA over the last month of the season could be evidence of that already happening (or not).
Looked at another way, this is still a gamble. With pitchers like Andrew Chafin still available, Joey Lucchesi appearing ticketed to the bullpen, and Raley’s age, you really have to question the gamble.
There’s also the matter of Raley not wearing the Rays rainbow flag patch during Pride Night. Notably, Raley would not speak to the media personally about his decision.
We can have a whole debate about the stand inclusive of how Raley showed he’s not always going to follow organizational decisions. Beyond that is a very clear message the Mets sent to their fans.
Agree or disagree with Raley’s stance (which he couldn’t himself defend), the Mets made a clear message they don’t care about that portion of their fanbase. This is a far cry from when Steve Cohen removed the Chick-fil-A advertisements from the foul poles.
Again, was a 35 year old LOOGY in an era of the rules made against the use of LOOGYS worth sending that message to part of your fanbase?
There’s also the matter of Askew. He throws 95+ MPH, and he generates a high number of strikeouts (33.7 K%). Askew was an interesting and soon to be fast rising prospect. Instead, he’s gone to an organization who has a GM better equipped to analyze prospects.
In the end, the Mets gave up a lot for Raley. That’s in terms of prospect value and how fans view the team. Doing that for a reliever in his mid 30s with one good season in his career is highly suspect. In fact, it’s senseless. M