Bartolo Colon
On October 29, 2010, in the wake of the Madoff scandal, Sandy Alderson took over as the Mets General Manager. Alderson inherited a team with some big stars like Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, and David Wright. With that he also inherited a team who finished the 2010 season with a hefty $126 million payroll, which ranked sixth in the major leagues. Due to some backloaded contracts reaching their expiration, the 2011 Opening Day payroll was actually inflated to $143 million.
Alderson went to work dismantling a team that was disappointing on the field in what was the beginning of a real rebuilding process. Luis Castillo was released before the season started. Oliver Perez was not too far behind him. Getting rid of the underperforming players the fans hated was the easy part. The hard part was what ensued.
The Mets first traded Francisco Rodriguez, who was getting dangerously close to having an expensive $17.5 million option vest. Then he traded Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler. Surprisingly, Alderson didn’t trade Jose Reyes, who was the National League leader in batting average. Instead, he would let Reyes become a free agent, and he would recoup a draft pick when Reyes signed a $106 million contract with the Marlins.
And just like that what was once a $143 million payroll became a $95 million payroll in a little more than a year. In subsequent years, the Mets would let Johan Santana‘s contract expire and not reinvest the money. They would release Jason Bay, and again re-invest the money. Then the Mets would shop R.A. Dickey after he won the Cy Young Award. They obtained Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud in exchange for him which was a sure sign the Mets were more invested in rebuilding than contending.
It was also a sign that the Mets were cash strapped due to the Madoff scandal. The payroll would reach its nadir in 2o14 when it was actually $85 million, which ranked 21st in the major leagues. A bewildered and frankly angry fan base was left wondering when, if ever, the Wilpons were going to permit the Mets to have a payroll commensurate with their standing as a big market major league franchise.
Now, over the past two seasons, the Mets payroll has gone from $85 million in 2014 to $101 million to start the 2015 season. In that offseason, the Mets actually went out and signed Michael Cuddyer to help them become a more complete team. When Cuddyer faltered and David Wright would suffer from spinal stenosis, the Mets made moves and added payroll. The team first traded for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe (even if the Braves paid part of their salary). The Mets then acquired Yoenis Cespedes and what was a left of his $10.5 million contract. In 2015, the Mets spent a little more, but more importantly they spent what they needed to spend to compete.
In 2016, the Mets initially put out signs they were not moving off their roughly $100 million payroll when they signed Alejandro De Aza to platoon with Juan Lagares in center. It was perceived as a sign the Mets were not going to spend; it was a sign they were not willing to go the extra mile to get Cespedes. But then something happened. Cespedes didn’t find that massive deal on the free agent market. Instead, he re-signed with the Mets for $27.5 million in 2016. After 2016, Cespedes had the option to opt out of the remaining two years $47.5 million left on his contract.
With the Mets paying Cespedes a hefty salary to start the season, the Mets Opening Day payroll rose all the way to $135 million. Before Cespedes was re-signed, there was some doubt about whether it was really the insurance on Wright’s contract that allowed them to make those in-season moves, the re-signing of Cespedes calmed down a fan base that worried when or if the Mets would be willing to spend. Better yet, when the Mets had some issues scoring runs, they went out and traded for Jay Bruce.
Surprisingly now, we are back at the point of wondering if the Mets are willing to spend. The $135 million payroll was a positive step, but it is still less than the first payroll Alderson had with the Mets, and it was only ranked 15th in the majors. Cespedes is a free agent, and no one is quite sure if the Mets will re-sign him, look to acquire a big name free agent like Jose Bautista, or if they are going to stick with the Michael Conforto–Curtis Granderson-Bruce outfield. The Mets also have a number of other areas to address this offseason.
The first step was Neil Walker accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer. With that, according to ESPN‘s Adam Rubin, the Mets current payroll obligations are $124 million. That is just $10 million under what the 2015 Opening Day Payroll was. If the Mets were to re-sign Cespedes, or another big name free agent, the payroll is going to go well past the $135 million mark.
The problem is the Mets need to go even further than that. Not only do they need Cespedes, or a reasonable facsimile, they also need to re-sign Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas, or again, a reasonable facsimile thereof. The Mets may also want to add another backup catcher given Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury concerns, Rene Rivera‘s lack of offense, and Kevin Plawecki having two disappointing seasons. The Mets may also want to sign a veteran starter considering the health issues of their rotation and Bartolo Colon having signed with the Braves this past week. There’s a lot the Mets need to address here, and it isn’t likely that $10 million is going to cover all of it.
So again, we are back at the point of wondering how far the Mets are willing to go to compete. Will they have a payroll in the upper half of all of baseball? Do they have the funds to spend like a big market club? At this point, no one knows the answers to these questions. While Mets fans may be apprehensive, it is too soon to to pass judgment. That time will come when we see how the Mets handle the Cespedes situation.
Using Statcast data, Mike Petriello of MLB.com determined pitchers have begun throwing not just more curveballs, but also curveballs with a higher spin rate. Moreover, pitchers are more inclined to use a curveball in any point in the count. One of the major reasons for pitchers using more curveballs is the results it generates. According to Statcast, batters do not have a lot of success against the curveball:
Curves above 2,600 rpm in 2016
Average: .196
Exit velo: 86.8 mph
Whiffs per swing: 32.2 percentCurves below 2,600 rpm in 2016
Average: .225
Exit velo: 87.7 mph
Whiffs per swing: 30.2 percent
As noted by Petriello, teams are well aware of the trend, and they have been asking their pitchers to throw more curveballs. Notable examples have included Clayton Kershaw, Collin McHugh, and Rich Hill. Over the past few seasons, pitchers who have gone to an increase usage of their curveball have seen better results.
This data is promising for Seth Lugo. Lugo has the highest curveball spin rate ever recorded. In fact, Lugo actually has 43 of the top 50 spin rates ever recorded in the Statcast Era.
When Lugo has gone to his curveball, he has been extremely successful. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo’s curveball was his toughest pitch to hit. When he threw it, batters whiffed 34% of the time – most notably was the strikeout he recorded on Anthony Rizzo. When batters were actually able to make contact with the curveball, it was a groundball 52% of the time. As a result, batters slugging percentage off of the pitch was a woeful .294.
However, despite the curveball being such a dominant pitch for Lugo, he only threw the pitch 16% of the time. That made it his second least used pitch. Indeed, Lugo mainly threw fastballs, sinkers, and sliders in 2016. Overall, this was effective as Lugo was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Still, there were warning signs Lugo is due for regression as evidenced by his 4.33 FIP. Overall, Lugo’s numbers were mostly fueled by his ability to limit the damage with runners on base and in scoring position. In fact, batters only hit .149 against him with runners in scoring position and .179 with runners on base.
Depending on your point of view, Lugo’s numbers last year were the result of an innate skill, pure luck, or somewhere in the middle. Quite possibly, it was Lugo’s use of the curveball in high leverage situations that helped him out of those jams. As noted above, batters have a high whiff rate and hit many groundballs against the curveball – that goes double for Lugo. Therein lies the key to his success in 2017 and beyond.
With Bartolo Colon leaving in free agency, there may very well be an opportunity for Lugo to pitch in the rotation at some point next season. If Lugo uses his curveball much more frequently, it is possible he could replicate the numbers he produced last season. Perhaps, he could put together an even better season next year.
Hopefully, he will. As it stands now, other than Noah Syndergaard, there are no guarantees as to who will be ready to start the year in the rotation. Early word on Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz are positive. There has been little to no news on Zack Wheeler since he was shut down with elbow discomfort. With that in mind, Lugo could find himself in a competition with Robert Gsellman for the last spot in the rotation. While Gsellman is coming off a good rookie season himself, he doesn’t have one pitch that can match Lugo’s curveball. As it turns out, not many do.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the seventh set of grades, here are the Mets spot starters:
In 2015 with the Mets rotation nearing innings limits on the eve of the postseason, notably Matt Harvey, Verrett rose to the challenge, and he showed himself to be not just a capable bullpen arm, but also someone who can be a reliable spot starter. Unfortunately, as good as Verrett was in 2015, he was that poor in 2016.
Initially, Verrett did well in the rotation after making two April spot starts for Jacob deGrom. In those starts, he pitched six innings and allowed no runs. However, it was when he was called upon to fill-in for an injured Harvey that Verrett really struggled, and he fell apart in August. Overall, Verrett made 12 starts going 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.617 ERA. There’s no sugar coating how poor those numbers are. So why wasn’t his grade lower?
Well, Verrett was useful out of the bullpen. In his 23 relief appearances, he was 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.453 WHIP. His WHIP was quite poor, but overall, he was effective out of the pen, and for the most part, he went multiple innings. There’s value in that, and it should be recognized.
Ultimately, what we learned with Verrett is he may not be as capable bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen as we once thought. It might just be that his stuff will not permit him to go more than two times through a lineup. Ideally, Verrett is no more than a long man in the pen or a AAA starter called-up to make a start. He’s not both.
What was the most surprising part of Montero’s season? Was it his demotion to AA or was it his getting called-up to the majors two times last season? The answer actually is it was Montero getting important September starts for a team trying to claim one of the two Wild Card spots.
It was the same old Montero. In the minors, he pounded the strike zone, and he gave the Mets some hope they could salvage him. In the majors, he was flat out terrible. In his three starts and nine relief appearances, Montero was 0-1 with an 8.05 ERA and a 2.053 WHIP, and he may not have been that good. It is still incredible that he hasn’t been taken off the 40 man roster yet.
Speaking of terrible, the Mets admitted their mistake in signing Antonio Bastardo to a two year deal, and they traded him to the Pirates to bring back Niese. The Mets were desperate for pitching at the time, and there was some hope Niese would improve working with pitching coach Dan Warthen again. The Mets hopes were quickly dashed.
Niese made two starts and four relief appearances for the Mets. In those games, he was 0-1 with an 11.45 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP. He was even worse than he was with the Pirates, and remember, he was amidst the worst year of his career with the Pirates. In his last start, and most likely last appearance ever wearing a Mets uniform, Niese lasted a third of an inning before removing himself from the game with a knee injury. Not too long thereafter, Niese had season ending knee surgery. It will be interesting to see what the market will be for him this offseason.
Lugo went from a struggling pitcher in AAA who was removed from the rotation to being one of the Mets best starting pitchers down the stretch.
During the season, we saw Lugo had the single best pitch out of anyone in the minor leagues when he embarassed Anthony Rizzo with his curveball. As it turns out, if you measure curveballs by revolution, Lugo has one of the best curveballs in the sport. We also saw that when Lugo needed a little extra on his fastball to get out of a jam, he could ramp it up all the way to 96 MPH. In that way, Lugo was a bit of a throwback. Lugo relied mostly on his B fastball and secondary pitches, but when he was in trouble, or he needed to put a batter away, he took his stuff to the next gear. It could be one of the reasons he was so successful limiting the damage with runners in scoring position.
Overall, Lugo made eight starts and nine relief appearances for the Mets. As a starter, he was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP. As a reliever, he was 0-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP. For the season, Lugo was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Not a bad season for a pitcher that got booted from the AAA rotation.
In the aforementioned game Niese left due to injury, it was Gsellman who relieved him. In that game, Gsellman began to make a name for himself. Gsellman would get better and better from start to start culminating in his seven inning, no run, eight strikeout game against the Phillies in the Mets last home regular season game.
During the season, Gsellman featured a power sinker and some still developing, but still effective secondary pitches. That power sinker helped Gsellman go 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.276 WHIP in what was effectively nine starts. Gsellman was better than even the Mets could have hoped he would be. With the departure of Bartolo Colon in free agency coupled with the questions surrounding the rotation, mainly Zack Wheeler, Gsellman may very well be competing with Lugo for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.
Gabriel Ynoa C-
The main thing we learned about Ynoa during the 2016 season was the 23 year old just wasn’t ready to pitch in the major leauges. However, due to a rash of injuries, the Mets brought him up sooner than he should have been, and they immediately put him in a relief role he was ill suited.
Ynoa would make 10 appearances for the Mets. That included three starts in games he frankly should not have been starting. Ynoa was called upon to start games despite not having made a start in nearly a month due to injuries and Montero being Montero. Overall, Ynoa was 1-0 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP. It is too soon to judge what type of career he will have, and the hope is that Ynoa will be better for the experience.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the sixth set of grades, here are the Mets Opening Day Rotation:
By now, it is readily apparent Harvey never should have pitched in 2016. First, there was the blood clots in his bladder that led to him having an abbreviated Spring Training. Then, it was his complaining about his mechanics. He just wasn’t himself on the mound, and the Mets began to have discussions about sending him down. Harvey calmed those concerns a bit by carrying a no-hitter into the fifth against the White Sox.
Even with that start, there was something not quite right with Harvey. As it turns out, he needed season ending surgery to remove a rib to address his thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS). The TOS was the main culprit for Harvey going 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.468 WHIP. With Harvey having the surgery, we can expect hi to get back to his dominant form instead of the struggling pitcher we saw in 2016.
Like Harvey, deGrom had some issues of his own. He had an abbreviate Spring Training due to his newborn son’s health issues. He had an oblique injury that robbed him of some velocity and movement. Finally, he had to have season ending surgery himself to address a nerve irritation that was preventing him from pitching.
Ultimately, deGrom adapted to the reduced velocity and movement by locating, and he dominated in day games like he always has. However, deGrom was not up for the big game like we saw from him. That was prevalent in an August match-up against Madison Bumgarner that saw both pitchers fail to live up to the pitcher’s duel billing. In reality, the nerve issue was too much for him towards the end of the season.
Still, it was a good season for deGrom. It just wasn’t the one we expected from him after he emerged as the Mets ace in 2015. Overall, deGrom made 24 starts going 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.203 WHIP. He should be much better next season.
During the second game of the season, Syndergaard showed off a 95 MPH slider. With that he announced to the world, he was taking the next step forward in a season where he would emerge as the Mets ace. He would also emerge as a Cy Young candidate. Syndergaard might have won the Cy Young award too had it not been for the bone spurs he had to learn to pitch with during the middle of the season.
Dealing with the bone spurs was not the only challenges Syndergaard overcame. He also had to address how he held runners on base. Gradually throughout the season, and with some help with Rene Rivera behind the plate, he addressed that issue to the point where teams were no longer running at will against him. He also had to adapt to being able to carry an injury plagued pitching staff. One of the main things lost in the season was at the end of the year, Syndergaard was really all the Mets had left in the rotation. He handled the pressure of not just being an ace, but also being the Mets best chance of winning games. That was most prevalent when he threw seven shutout innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.
For the season, Syndergaard was 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP. He was the league leader in FIP and home runs allowed per nine innings. Lost in those numbers was a two home run game in Los Angeles and his getting thrown out of a game for throwing at Chase Utley. It was an eventful year that saw Syndergaard take the next step. It will be fascinating to see him improve even more next year.
Matz’s season was reminiscent of a scene in the the movie Major League. Announcer Harry Doyle stated as Willie MaysBar Hayes stepped up to the plate that many say you can tell a lot about how a season is going to go based upon the team’s first at-bat of the season. Well, if you judged by Matz’s first start of the season, you knew it was going to be a rough year for him.
In his first start, Matz couldn’t get out of the second inning after allowing seven runs to the Marlins. To his credit, Matz would move past that start, and he would start putting together a season worthy of Rookie of the Year consideration. In fact, by the end of May, Matz would lower his ERA from the gaudy 37.80 it was during his first start all the way down to 2.28. It was around this time that Matz began dealing with bone spurs in his elbow that changed the way he pitched.
He couldn’t utilize his slider or breaking pitches as often as it caused him pain. Accordingly, he was less effective on the mound, and he would pitch to a 4.21 ERA until August. At that point, Matz just couldn’t do it physically anymore. He needed season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur. The surgery put an end to what was an uneven season from him.
Overall, Matz made 22 starts going 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP. During the season, he did much to confirm people’s preconceived notions about him. If you saw him as a possible future ace to join an elite rotation, you saw definitive glimpses of that. If you saw him as an injury prone pitcher that will never put it together, you saw that as well. Right now, it is difficult to glean exactly what Matz is and what he will be as a major leaguer. The 2017 should go a long way on that front.
Colon was supposed to be removed from the rotation by the All Star Break. Instead, he was the only pitcher who didn’t need to skip a start this season. With the Mets rotation getting decimated by injuries throughout the season, they needed a pitcher like Colon to go out there and not only eat innings, but also to be a reliable pitcher when he took the mound. Colon responded by having his best year as a Met.
The innings was only part of the Colon story. In April, he tied Pedro Martinez on the all-time wins list meaning he has won the second most games by a Dominican born pitcher. Colon would then pass Pedro in May. Also in May, Colon would actually hit a home run off of James Shields. These are but a few of the highlights that also included Colon being the best defensive pitcher this season. It was your typical Colon roller coaster ride that fans seemed to love with the exception being that he actually pitched well this season.
Overall, Colon made 33 starts and one relief appearance going 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.210 WHIP. He led the majors with the fewest walks per nine innings. It was the type of season that will help fans remember him fondly when he is pitching for the Braves next season.
Zack Wheeler Incomplete
At the Carlos Gomez trade fell through, Wheeler famously called Sandy Alderson and asked him not to trade him. The rehabbing pitcher wanted to be a part of a Mets team that was poised to win again in 2016. It didn’t happen as he did not throw one pitch for the Mets in 2016.
Wheeler’s rehab was plagued with setbacks. First, he needed surgery to remove an undissolved stitch. He then experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be an irritated nerve requiring a cortisone shot. In August, he was finally able to start facing batters again, and he again experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be a strained flexor tendon. With that his season was over before it ever began.
At this point, no one quite knows what to make of Wheeler. He hasn’t pitched in two seasons, has had two surgeries, and has had a number of elbow issues. While all indications are that he will be ready to start the 2017, we are at the point that we will believe it when we see it.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
For the past three years, Bartolo Colon has pitched relatively well for the New York Mets, and he has become a fan favorite. This past season we saw what might have been his best attribute of all – his durability. With the Mets having a young staff, veterans like Colon, especially durable ones, are worth their weight in gold. That might be why Colon has been paid well during his Mets tenure.
With that said, there is some danger in keeping Colon around for another year or two. Colon has become a soft tosser whose fastball averages 90 MPH. It’s really important to note this because he throws his fastball an astounding 89% of the time. As he ages and his fastball velocity drops even further, the greater likelihood he is going to get hit and hit hard. It is not too dissimilar with what happened with another fanbase’s beloved soft tosser.
In 2006, the Phillies acquired Jamie Moyer to help their rotation, and to help them chase the New York Mets. With the 44 year old Moyer in the rotation, the Phillies would catch the Mets in 2007. That year, Moyer was 14-12 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.445 WHIP. The following year, Moyer would not only help the Phillies win the National League East again, he would also help the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years. It was also his best season in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.
In 33 starts, the 45 year old Moyer was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.329 WHIP. He had a 117 ERA+, and he also averaged 83 MPH with his fastball. Moyer would be a free agent after the 2008 season and a Phillies team basking in the glow of a World Series title, and a Phillies team putting too much stock in an outlier season from a 45 year old pitcher, gave Moyer a two year deal. As it should have been expected, Moyer struggled in 2009 and 2010. After that, Moyer’s Phillies career was over, and realistically speaking, Moyer’s major league career was basically over too.
This is the position the Mets are now with Colon. After recording an 84 and 91 ERA+ in his first two seasons as a Met, Colon rebounded to have a 120 ERA+ in 2016. Colon did it despite him losing some MPH off his fastball. As with Moyer, the Mets are in a position to ask themselves whether the 2016 season was sustainable or an outlier. Given Colon’s age and how hard he throws, the chances lie more with Colon’s 2016 season being an outlier than it is what can be expected of him in 2017 or beyond.
By all accounts, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz should be ready for Opening Day. We know Noah Syndergaard will be ready to go. Even if Zack Wheeler still needs more time, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo proved to the Mets that they not only can pitch in the major leagues, but also that they can pitch in a pennant race.
And with that, there may no longer be room for Colon on the Mets. With that Colon decided to take a deal with the Atlanta Braves and join former Met R.A. Dickey in the rotation (it is not known if Josh Thole or Jerry Grote will be signed to catch them). Ultimately, that is a good thing. It is a sign the Mets young aces are healthy, and it is a sign that the less experienced pitching is ready to contribute.
Many Mets fans will be disappointed in Colon’s leaving the Mets. It is understandable as he was a fan favorite and good mentor for the young pitchers on the staff. However, Colon was a 44 year old pitcher, and sooner or later, he is bound to have a precipitous fall-off not too dissimilar from what he saw with Moyer. This was the right time to part ways, and in the games he doesn’t face the Mets, we should all wish him luck. We should also hope this rotation is truly healthy and ready to withstand the rigors of the 2016 season without Colon going out and eating up all of those innings.
This offseason, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make. How far should they go to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes? Should they re-sign Neil Walker to play second base, or do you stick with what you have in Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, and/or Jose Reyes? How do you properly prepare for how to deal with the David Wright situation? Once you pick up Jay Bruce‘s option, what do you do with him? Do you move Bruce or Michael Conforto to first base, or do you stick with Lucas Duda, who has now had lower back injuries in consecutive seasons? Do you bring back Bartolo Colon to be the fifth starter again, or do you fully trust one of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to take over that role? Overall, there are many questions on how the Mets should build the 2017 roster.
However, one avenue they don’t have to address is the catcher position.
Let’s start with the one player people will have near unanimous agreement. Rene Rivera should return as the Mets backup catcher. Rivera certainly earned his reputation as not only a good defensive catcher, but also one that serves as a mentor for young starting pitching. Much of the unexpected success both Gsellman and Lugo had were partially the result of them working with Rivera. More importantly, Rivera developed a rapport with Noah Syndergaard. He became the ace’s personal catcher, and we saw Rivera catch seven brilliant innings from Syndergaard in the Wild Card Game. With Rivera being arbitration eligible, he should be a lock to return in his role.
By the way, that role was the backup catcher to Travis d’Arnaud.
There is no sugar-coating it. The 2016 season was a disaster for d’Arnaud at the plate. In 75 games, d’Arnaud hit .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI. He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season. It was as bad as you can possibly imagine. In fact, his numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season. That year, the Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate. The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.
Making everything all the more frustrating was d’Arnaud regressed in his ability to throw out base runners. In 2015, he was actually league average in that department. That is all the more impressive when you consider how the Mets starting pitchers generally do not hold on runners well. This season d’Arnaud went back to only throwing out 22% of base runners.
Part of his offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics. Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his throwing shoulder. Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling, he began to receive irregular playing time. It could be any combination of the three. In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.
However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate. He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s blocking the plate rules. He still calls a good game. He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball. In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look. He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.” (ESPN.com). Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.
With d’Arnaud still excelling behind the plate, and there being valid reasons for his poor performance, it might just be in the Mets best interests to bet on d’Arnaud rebounding in 2017. Remember, d’Arnaud was the same player who hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI in 67 games. Arguably, d’Arnaud was one of the top offensive catchers in the game. With his skills behind the plate, he has the rare ability to be able to hit and catch well. With him turning 28 years old and still being a player with multiple years of control, the Mets would be best suited to count on him getting healthy in the offseason (not always a given with d’Arnaud) and letting him reclaim his 2015 form.
Another reason to bet on d’Arnaud is the weak free agent class. Looking at the list of possible free agents, there does not exist one catcher who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.
The first catcher most people will point to is Wilson Ramos. Even if you buy into his career year being a new norm for him, Ramos isn’t even sure he will be able to play next season after tearing his ACL. As Ramos said himself, “Unfortunately this injury… may affect whether I am able to stay with a NL team.” (cbssports.com). That rules out Ramos entirely.
The next catcher that is consistently mentioned is Matt Wieters. In 2016, despite hitting in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, Wieters hit .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers and 66 RBI. These numbers are partially why he had an 87 OPS+ meaning he was a subpar offensive player. Even if you are willing to overlook some of these stats because he is a switch hitter, he hit .231/.304/.346 with three homers and 15 RBI off lefties this year.
Moreoever, Wieters is nowhere near the pitch framer d’Arnaud is. Wieters is not only unable to steal his staff a strike here or there, he is also unable to ensure that strikes thrown will be called strikes. Another consideration is Wieters is a fairly injury prone player. While he was healthy in 2016, he was not for the previous couple of years. If one of the reasons you are looking to move on from d’Arnaud is health, Wieters is not your guy.
Another factor the Mets should not pursue Wieters, or whoever else you believe should be a target, is money. Ultimately, players like Wieters are going to cost more than d’Arnaud. That’s important when you consider Jacob deGrom is heading to his first arbitration year, and the Mets still have to find the money to re-sign Cespedes. Any money spent this offseason is presumably less money available for the Mets to give Cespedes. Therefore, if you sign a player, you better make sure that both is both a player of need and/or a definite upgrade over what the Mets already have.
There is no one out there who is definitively better than d’Arnaud. In fact, they are probably not as good as him. Worse yet, they are going to be more expensive. With that in mind, the Mets best move would be to let d’Arnaud get healthy so he can contribute to the Mets like he did in 2015.
If he doesn’t, the Mets still have Kevin Plawecki . . . .
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
During his Mets career, there have always been the two Bartolo Colons. There is the loveable oaf that everyone seems to cheer on when he takes the mound, and then there are the statistics that say he has actually been a below average pitcher during his Mets career. However, there was one area where the fascination met reality – Colon’s defense.
The love affair began last year with the nifty behind the back flip in Miami to nail Justin Bour at first base on a little dribbler up the first base line:
It continued into this season with Colon making a number of dazzling plays, but there was none more impressive than Colon’s Willie Mays impersonation:
The play is all the more stunning when you consider that as soon as Little League pitchers are taught to not go anywhere near a pop up. Rather than defer to Neil Walker, and by extension allow the bunt single to happen, Colon ventured back and made a fine play. It was perhaps the best defensive play made by a pitcher this season. Typically, highlight reels plays, as opposed to really good defense, are what gets people nominated for Gold Gloves (just look at Derek Jeter).
The issue with Colon was he was actually more than just pizzazz. In fact, he was the best defensive pitcher all season. His 8 DRS (they do not calculate UZR for pitchers) was the tops in the major leagues. Between the highlight reel plays and his actual defensive numbers, Colon should have won the Gold Glove. As it turns out, he wasn’t even a finalist. It is a shame because Hopefully, Colon will be able to get over the snub by remembering the most improbable moment of the entire 2016 season:
With news that Bartolo Colon has been snubbed for the Gold Glove, no Mets player will be winning any offseason awards. In fact, the last time a Mets player won an offseason award was in 2014, and coincidentally, it was a Gold Glove. With that in mind, can you name every Mets player that has won a Gold Glove? Good luck!
Tommie Agee, Doug Flynn, Bud Harrelson, Keith Hernandez, Ron Darling, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Robin Ventura, Rey Ordonez, Juan Lagares
John Harper makes a case in the New York Daily News that the Mets need to obtain Kenley Jansen to return to the postseason stating, “If the Mets want to take a huge step toward re-claiming that supremacy next year and beyond, they should make a big splash this off-season by signing Kenley Jansen.” He figures the Mets could obtain Jansen for a four year $54 million contract. His reasoning is flawed.
First of all, there is nothing about the Mets to suggest they can win a bidding war against the Dodgers for Jansen’s services. This doesn’t even account for other bigger spenders like the Cubs, Nationals, and Yankees also potentially getting involved. More importantly, there is no underlying need for Jansen.
Furthermore, the Mets already have a dominant closer in Jeurys Familia. Over the past two seasons, Familia has accumulated more appearances, more innings, and more saves than Jansen. Additionally, despite the current narrative floating around, Familia has been better in the postseason. In 13 postseason appearances, Familia has a 2.30 ERA and a 0.638 WHIP. In 15 postseason apperances, Jansen has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP. People forget that because Familia’s defense let him down in the World Series and he threw a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie in the Wild Card Game. They also forget because Jansen has had back-to-back great performances in the postseason. That makes you forget the times Jansen has failed or his 6.75 NLDS ERA.
More important than that, the Mets have Addison Reed in the eighth inning. It is quite possible there was no better reliever in the National League than Reed this year. Reed had an amazing season that saw him shatter the Mets record for holds with him recording 40 this season. It’s all the more impressive when you consider Reed made the third most in the majors with the fifth best 1.97 ERA, and the highest WAR among relievers (2.9). Long story short, Reed has the eighth inning locked down.
Overall, between Familia and Reed the Mets have already made games a seven inning game. With the Mets young starters going 6+ per game, they don’t need the 7-8-9 dominant trio that other teams require. In fact, up until the rash of Mets starting pitching injuries this season, the seventh inning wasn’t an issue at all. Terry Collins was able to utilize his full bullpen, notably Hansel Robles, Jerry Blevins (a pending free agent), and when healthy, Jim Henderson, to get through the inning. It wasn’t until Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman took over starting pitching spots that the seventh inning was an issue. It should be noted by that time, Fernando Salas (a pending free agent) locked it down.
The overriding point is the Mets do not need a three headed monster coming out of the bullpen to return to the postseason. Instead, the Mets need their starting pitchers healthy, and they need to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. Therein lies the rub. As noted by MMO., Mets payroll commitments for the 2017 season already hover around $108 million, and that is before the Mets seek to re-sign Cespedes, Neil Walker, and/or Bartolo Colon.
If the Mets were to re-sign Cespedes to and average annual value commensurate with his 2015 salary figure, the Mets payroll would jump to $135 million. Keep in mind, the Mets 2016 Opening Day payroll was $135 million, and the team had to stretch it to that point to accomodate Cespedes. It is hard to imagine the Mets expanding on this payroll figure when they had a higher payroll in 2016 and didn’t have a long postseason run to offset some of the cost.
If you add Jansen at an average annual value of $13.5 million, that would increase the Mets 2017 payroll to $121.5 million before address the Cespedes, second base, and fifth starter issues. Adding Jansen, a very nice but unnecessary piece, only serves to build a more dominant bullpen at the expense of building a complete team. Adding Jansen overlooks the real need for the Mets, which is their starting pitchers returning next season fully healthy. Overall, the model the Mets shouldn’t be looking at is the three headed monster in the bullpen. Rather, the Mets should be looking at their 2015 model which is being emulated by the Cleveland Indians this postseason:
A dominant young starting pitcher going as deep into the game as possible and then a two-headed monster coming out of the bullpen to win the game.
The Mets already have that in place. What they do not have in place is Cespedes. They cannot do anything to damage their chances to lock him up and return to their 2015 form.
MLB has announced the candidates for the 2016 esurance MLB Awards. MLB and esurance has given fans an opportunity to vote on their favorites from a number of categories with the fan vote accounting for 20% of the decision making in giving out the award. With the Mets having a roller coaster of a year that saw them rally from two games under .500 in August to returning to the postseason for a second straight year, the Mets were prominently featured in this year’s ballot:
Best Social Media Personality – Noah Syndergaard
If you are on Twitter, you are following Syndergaard not just because he is the Mets ace, but also because of his ongoing feud with beloved Mets mascot Mr. Met:
Notice who wasn’t invited to our water fountain frolic…..@MrMet #NOTfriendshttps://t.co/5LyAT7PNzK
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) September 7, 2016
There is also the witty comment he makes after a Mets win, and he usually likes to chide his teammates:
I told Grandy it was past Bartolo's bedtime and then that happened….what a teammate! #LGM
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) September 18, 2016
Overall, Syndergaard deserves this award because he truly does get it:
Baseball has a way of ripping your ❤️ out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training.
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) October 6, 2016
Best Play Offense – Asdrubal Cabrera
As the Mets were fighting tooth and nail to try to return to the postseason, it was Cabrera who got insanely hot and lead them to the promise land. After coming off the disabled list on August 19th, he went on a tear hitting .345/.406/.635 with 11 doubles, one triple, 10 homers, and 29 RBI. His biggest homer and RBI came on a walk-off home run against the Phillies on September 22nd:
If Cabrera didn’t deserve the award for the magnitude of that home run, he certainly did for the epic bat flip.
Best Social Media Post – Noah Syndergaard
Among the many reasons Syndergaard is a beloved social media figure is his embracing the Thor moniker. For those that are not aware, Thor is the Norse god of thunder. It is why Syndergaard would immediately have to go onto Twitter to defend himself:
Dear Empire State Building: Wasn’t me (For liability purposes only) pic.twitter.com/OJvxm5s32B
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) July 26, 2016
Best Performance – Noah Syndergaard
If you recall, Syndergaard’s last appearance against the Dodgers in 2015 was in the seventh inning. He came out throwing over 100 MPH to record a hold and hand the ball to Jeurys Familia to close out the series victory. His May 11th start against the Dodgers this year might’ve been even more impressive than that as he dominated the Dodgers on the mound and at the plate:
On the mound, Syndergaard pitched eight innings allowing just two earned with six strikeouts. At the plate, he was was the whole of the Mets offense in a 4-2 win going 2-4 with two runs, two homers, and four RBI. There is no one in baseball that dominated a game from both the mound and the plate this season.
Best Call TV/Radio – Gary Cohen & Ron Darling
No one, and I mean no one, ever believed that Bartolo Colon was ever going to hit a home run in a game. On May 7th, Colon did the impossible hitting a James Shield pitch over the left field wall. Everyone was bemused and incredulous. As usual, the Mets booth, led by future Hall of Famer Gary Cohen, perfectly captured the moment:
I’m not sure what was better, Gary’s voice cracking or Darling cracking, “I want to say that is one of the longest home run trots I’ve ever seen, but I think that’s how fast he runs.” Either way, a call doesn’t get better than that.
Best Trending Topic – Bartolo Colon Home Run
Simply everyone was talking about it, and everyone was tweeting about it:
Big Sexy! Bartolo Colon Launches First MLB Home Run! https://t.co/GpA43Xn99h #Mets
— Metsmerized Online (@MetsMerized) May 8, 2016
Bartolo Colon Homered?!?!?! https://t.co/zVE0pCuUSz pic.twitter.com/uE20XrzZTu
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) May 8, 2016
Honestly, I don’t know how people don’t bring it up each and every day as with all due respect to Mike Eruzione it is proof that miracles do happen.
Voting for these awards ends on November 11th at 2:00 P.M. As there is no limit on the amount of votes cast, please make sure you go out and vote for your favorite Mets early and often.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.