Addison Reed
For the first time in their history, the Mets can defend their pennant in the postseason. Better yet, the Mets get to defend their National League crown on their own turf.
The Mets are sending their ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Bear in mind, Syndergaard is not the ace by default. From the minute Syndergaard started throwing 95 MPH sliders to accompany his 100 MPH fastball, he was fast on his way to becoming the staff ace regardless of the injuries to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. In the 2016 season, Syndergaard led the major leauges in FIP while also allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings. He also finished .001 behind Max Scherzer for the best K/BB ratio in the National League. All told, even with the every other year narrative and Madison Bumgarner‘s postseason history, the Mets actually have the starting pitching advantage.
That advantage gets amplified when you consider the Giants just do not hit Syndergaard. As a team, the Giants are batting .170/.241/.226 with just one home run against Syndergaard. The Giants projected starting lineup is just 8-44 against Syndergaard with a home run and nine strikeouts. So long as Syndergard goes out there and pitches against the Giants batters like he has done in his short career, he is going to give the Mets every chance to beat Bumgarner and the Giants.
The Mets have a chance to beat Bumgarner too. The first three batters in the Mets lineup, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, have each hit Bumgarner well. Towards the bottom of the lineup, both Riveras, T.J. Rivera and Rene Rivera, have had success in the one game they have faced Bumgarner. This is a big reason why the Mets were able to score four runs off Bumgarner in just five innings. With Syndergaard on the mound, and Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to follow, the Mets are not going to need as many runs this go round against Bumgarner.
Speaking of the bullpen, there has been no better tandem to close out a game than Reed and Familia. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Giants blew the most saves in all of baseball. They came just short of the all-time single season blown saves record. The Giants still don’t know who their closer will be this postseason. If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Mets definitively have the better pen.
Tonight should be baseball at its best. You’re going to see two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of who have had success in the postseason, squaring off in a winner-take-all game. Given the Mets having home field, and the numbers at play, you have to like the Mets chances tonight.
Lets Go Mets!
The IBWAA Rollie Fingers Award is given to the best relief pitcher in the American League. In the history of this award, there has been no easier choice as to who should win the award:
1st – Zach Britton
All Britton did this year was have probably the best season a reliever has probably ever had in major league history. His 2016 season was better than any year Mariano Rivera had. It was better than Dennis Eckersley‘s 1992 Cy Young and MVP season for the Oakland Athletics.
Consider for a second that Pedro Martinez‘s dominant 200 season garnered him the second highest ERA+ ever recorded at 291. This narrowly trailed Tim Keefe‘s 1880 season where he recorded a 293 ERA+. Britton’s ERA+ this season is 827. No, that’s not a typo. It is actually that high. It should be noted that Britton does not have enough innings to qualify to have his ERA+ recorded as the highest ever. Still, it speaks to just how dominant Britton was.
Among major league relievers, he has the lowest ERA (.054) and the highest WAR (4.3), and it wasn’t particularly close in either category. On the season, Britton made 69 appearnces going 2-1 with 47 saves, a 0.836 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 827 ERA+, and a 1.94 FIP. This has now become the gold standard upon which all reliever seasons will be judged.
2nd – Brad Brach
Britton’s season completely overshadowed his own teammate’s incredible season. The irony is Brach’s season actually helped Britton put up some of the dominant numbers he put up this season by locking down the eighth inning.
In 2016, Brach made 71 appearances pitching 79.0 innings. He wouldn’t lead the majors or the American League in holds because quite frankly, the Orioles starting rotation wasn’t good this season. As a result, the Orioles starters would hand the bullpen either deficits or tie games to the bullpen. Brach would do his job to turn these scenarios into victories. In his 71 appearances, Brach earned a eye-popping 10 wins out of the bullpen. For the season, he was 10-4 with two saves, 24 holds, a 2.05 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 216 ERA+, and a 2.92 FIP. Overall, it was either him or Addison Reed as the best set-up man in the major leagues.
3rd – Sam Dyson
Not only did Britton overshadow his teammate, he also overshadowed another dominant closer who had a breakout season. Dyson had about as dominant a season you will see any closer have in baseball. However, if he was looking to get noticed, he had his great season the wrong year.
In what has been Dyson’s first season as a closer, he has gone 3-2 with 38 saves, a 1.223 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 186 ERA+, and a 3.62 FIP. For a Rangers team that won almost all of their games by a razor thin margin, Dyson’s job as the closer was made all the more important. His 38 saves and 2.9 WAR would have been the best for a closer in the American League this season. However, he happened to have this great year at the same time Britton had his otherworldly season.
The IBWAA Hoyt Wilhelm Award is for the best relief pitcher in the National League. While the National League has had a number of good relievers this past season, there have been three clear standouts over the course of the season that deserves this award:
1st – Addison Reed
Given how Terry Collins has ridden his two best bullpen guys all season, this was a toss up between the two of them. Looking at the numbers, Reed just had a better season.
Time and again, Collins has leaned on Reed in the high leverage eighth inning of games to preserve the Mets lead. For a vast majority of the time, Reed has done that in impressive fashion. In 80 appearances, Reed is 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.940 WHIP, a 10.5 K/9, 209 ERA+, and a 1.98 FIP. Those 78 appearances are the third most in the majors (and National League). His 1.97 ERA is fifth among National League relievers with at least 60 innings pitched. His 2.9 WAR is the highest among relievers. His WHIP ranks fifth among relievers. By the way, Reed has made more appearances than the pitchers that are ahead of him in those categories.
This all speaks to how exceptional Reed has been in his role as the Mets eighth inning guy. In fact, Reed’s 40 holds this season is the most in the majors. In fact, it is 10 more than Kyle Barraclough who is in second place. Reed is a huge reason why the Mets are close to unbeatable when they have the lead after seven innings. In terms of a bullpen role, no one has done their job better than Reed, which is why he should be the Hoyt Wilhelm Award Winner.
2nd – Jeurys Familia
For the second straight season, Familia has been the most used, most durable, and best closer in the National League.
In 2016, Familia made more appearances, more innings pitched, and more saves than any other closer in all of baseball. His 51 saves this season surpassed Francisco Cordero and Jose Valverde for the most saves in a single season by a Dominican born pitcher. He has obliterated the Mets single season save record he once shared with Armando Benitez. Keep in mind, a large part of his breaking the save records was because Familia kept the ball in the ballpark. Over the course of the entire 2016 season, Familia has only allowed one home run.
Familia was also at his best when the Mets needed him to be at his best. With the team needing each and every win possible in August and September, Familia was as dominant as he has ever been. In that two month stretch, Familia made 27 appearances recording 14 saves with a 1.62 ERA, a 1.000 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9 while limiting batters to a .186 batting average.
Overall, for the season, Familia was 3-4 with 51 saves, a 2.55 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 161 ERA+, and a 2.39 FIP. When you put up these numbers while your manager keeps throwing you into games without giving you much time off to rest, you have been the best closer in your league. .
3rd – Seung-hwan Oh
Choosing the third reliever for this vote was a difficult task. Both Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen, who both had outstanding years again as closers for postseason teams. However, the nod here went to The Final Boss for a number of reasons.
First, Oh made the second more appearances than Melancon and Jansen. His 2.8 WAR was also the second highest WAR posted by any relief pitcher in the National League. He also helped saved a Cardinals bullpen and season by first being a dominant set-up man, and then being a dominant closer once Trevor Rosenthal went down with injury. As a closer, Oh was 4-3 with 19 saves, a 2.27 ERA, 0.958 WHIP, and an 11.3 K/9. For the season Oh made 76 appearances going 6-3 with 19 saves, a 1.92 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 214 ERA+, and a 2.13 FIP.
With that, Oh was about as dominant a relief pitcher as there was in the National League. With him mastering multiple roles, and his stepping up to fill a huge void for a Cardinals team in the thick of the Wild Card race, he deserves the last spot on the ballot.
This was a strange year in the National League Manager of the Year race. All the teams that were supposed to be contenders were actually contenders despite most of those teams suffering brutal injuries.
That Nationals lost Stephen Strasburg for a good part of the year and will likely not have him in the postseason. The Mets lost Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, David Wright, and Lucas Duda for a good portion of the season. At one point, the Dodgers entire starting projected rotation was on the disabled list with the most crushing blow being a Clayton Kershaw trip to the disabled list. The Cardinals have had their shortstops, Jhonny Peralta and Aledmys Diaz, on the disabled list with injuries, and they lost their closer Trevor Rosenthal. Even the Cubs suffered a huge injury with Kyle Schwarber going down with a torn ACL. With these teams overcoming those injuries, it could be quite difficult to determine who was actually the best manager in the National League this season. Taking all that into consideration, here is my ballot:
1st Place – Dave Roberts
A large part of his award goes to Roberts because of what he did despite his team being the most injured team in all of baseball. By the first week of the season, he lost two members of his starting rotation with Brett Anderson and Hyun-Jin Ryu. He would also lose important bullpen arms in Carlos Frias, Yimi Garcia, and Chris Hatcher for the year. He’d also deal with the most dramatic injury of all when Kershaw went down with a back injury.
When Kershaw made his last start before heading to the disabled list, the Dodgers were 41-36, eight games behind the Giants in the West and a game behind the Marlins for the second Wild Card. From that point forward, the Dodgers have the second best record in baseball. They have won the NL West for the second year in a row, and they seem poised to make a deep run in the postseason.
That’s not the only reason why Roberts is the Manager of the Year. He’s also capably handled a number of tricky situations that would have the potential to flummox other managers and potentially poison some clubhouses. He had to get Howie Kendrick to accept being a utility player and eventually an outfielder. He had to get one last great season out of Chase Utley. He would pull rookie Ross Stripling while he had a no-hitter going because it was the best thing for the young player’s career and the Dodgers’ future.
Clearly, Roberts has been unafraid to make the tough decisions. He had control of the clubhouse. He avoided near disaster, and he led his team from eight games back to win the NL West. That’s Manager of the Year material.
2nd – Joe Maddon
In reality, any other year this award would go to Maddon. Maddon has established himself as the best manager in the game.
Maddon was handed a roster that was easily a World Series favorite, and he delivered during the regular season. Not only did he get another great season from Jake Arrieta, but he also got better years from Jon Lester and John Lackey. By the way, somehow he got a Cy Young caliber season out of Kyle Hendricks.
We also saw Maddon play mad scientist like he loves to do. When Schwarber went down, Maddon took his budding superstar Kris Bryant and turned him into a Ben Zobrist type of player. It probably helped Bryant that he had the actual Zobrist on the team to give him some pointers. Additionally, never one to stay at the status quo, Maddon experimented using multiple relievers on the field.
On June 28th, Maddon would actually play Spencer Patton and Travis Wood in the outfield in a 15 inning game against the Reds. It actually worked out well for the Cubs. Patton started the 14th inning on the mound and Wood in left field. When Jay Bruce came up to bat, Maddon would switch them around to get Bruce out. After the Bruce at bat, Maddon switched them back so Patton could get Adam Duvall out. This was reminiscent of the 1986 game where Davey Johnson was forced to shift Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell between left field and the pitcher’s mound due to a Ray Knight ejection leaving the Mets without another position player. However, Maddon wasn’t forced into the decision. There wasn’t an injury or an ejection. Rather, Maddon did it because he simply believed it gave the Cubs the best chance to win the game.
That is the type of progressive thinking that has made Maddon the best manager in the game, and it has helped the Cubs to a 100 win season with the best record in baseball. If not for the terrific season Roberts had, Maddon would have won this quite easily.
3rd – Dusty Baker
Last year, the Nationals were done in by a toxic clubhouse and a terrible manager in Matt Williams. In the offseason, the Nationals did what they had to do in firing Williams, and then they had to settle on Baker as their manager.
Baker has always been a curious case. He has never been a favorite of the Sabermetrically inclined. He makes curious in-game decisions (hello Russ Ortiz), and he has a tendency to over rely on veterans over young players that are probably better and can do more to help the team win. Despite all of that, Baker has won wherever he has gone. He has brought the Giants, Cubs, Reds, and now the Nationals to the postseason. The reason is Baker is a manager that gets the most out of his players.
It wasn’t easy for him this year. Bryce Harper had a down year, Jonathan Papelbon wouldn’t last the season as either the closer or as a National, and Ben Revere would show he was not capable of being the center fielder for a good team. Worse yet, Strasburg went down with injury despite Baker actually being someone careful with his young pitcher. So how’d he do it. Well, he got career years from Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos. In a sign of growth, Baker trusted a young player in Trea Turner to not only play everyday, but also to play out of position. Mostly, Baker was Baker.
Overall, it is clear that Baker has some innate ability to get his teams to play well. He did that again this year in turning around a Nationals team that fell apart last year to a team that comfortably won the NL East.
Honorable Mention – Terry Collins
By no means did Collins have a strong year this year. You can point to the injuries, but he did do a lot to exacerbate them by playing players who he knew was injured. He had a year where he messed around with Michael Conforto‘s development and threatened the career of Jim Henderson by abusing his surgically repaired shoulder for a “must-win” game in April. Furthermore, he flat out abused the arms of Hansel Robles, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia. So no, Collins is not deserving of the award.
However, he is deserving of an honorable mention with the class and dignity he comported himself in the aftermath of Jose Fernandez‘s death. He made sure his team was there to console the Marlins, and he prepared his team to win games when some of his own players were devastated by Fernandez’s death. This was one of the many acts of kindness Collins has shown as the Mets manager, and it should be highlighted.
Coming into tonight’s game, the Phillies made overtures they wanted to knock the Mets out if the postseason.
Early on, Cameron Rupp would put the money where his mouth is by hitting a second inning sacrifice fly off Robert Gsellman. With Alec Asher starting with three perfect innings, it appeared that the Mets would have a dog fight on their hands. The Mets were up to the task.
In the fourth, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson would hit back-to-back two out singles to set the stage for Jay Bruce. Two weeks ago, it would be inning and rally over. Now? He’s scorching hot, and he confined the hot streak with an RBI single in this spot. T.J. Rivera followed with an RBI single of his own to make it 2-1.
That’s as close as the Phillies would get despite Jimmy Paredes giving one a ride in the sixth that looked as if it would put the Phillies ahead until Granderson ran his long fly down:
Grand grab‼️ ? #Mets pic.twitter.com/zfY1znQqH7
— New York Mets (@Mets) October 1, 2016
That would close the book on Gsellman who had a terrific slider going all night long. After that second inning rally, the Phillies wouldn’t get much going against him. Gsell man’s final line was six innings, seven hits, one run, one earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. He’d hand the ball off to the unstoppable 7-8-9 combination of Fernando Salas–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia.
Unlike most games where they find themselves walking a tightrope, the Mets would get them some insurance runs.
First, Bruce would chase Asher with a home run in the seventh making it 3-1. Then, in the eighth, the Mets would have one of the more bizarre rallies, you will ever see.
It started innocently enough with an Alejandro De Aza pinch hit single. He’d move to second on a Jose Reyes single, and then he’d find himself on third when Aaron Altherr overran the ball. Then, well, it was one of the more bizarre sequences, you’ll ever see.
While Reyes was running back to first with his hands on his head, Ryan Howard just couldn’t get to it. He couldn’t get to a ball that landed on the first base bag! With that the ball bounced off the bag, with Cespedes reaching safely, Reyes being forced out at second, and De Aza scoring from third.
Granderson would then walk moving Cespedes into scoring position. Bruce then followed this tomfoolery with an RBI single just against the shift to make it 5-1 Mets. Bruce continued the hot hitting going 3-4 with a run, three RBI, and a homer. After his RBI single, he was lifted for Juan Lagares for defense as Collins was taking no chances.
With the Mets looking to potentially lock down a Wild Card spot tonight, Collins stuck with the Reed-Familia plan to close it out. With the appearance, Familia would set a career high in appearances and games finished.
Depending on the outcome of the Cardinals game, the Mets mission for the 2016 season is almost finished.
Game Notes: Lucas Duda returned to the lineup going 0-4. James Loney replaced him for defense in the ninth. This was Ron Darling‘s last game of the year on SNY. Something tells me it won’t be his last Mets game of the year.
That’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from a Seth Lugo start. He’s not going to give up more than two earned runs. He’s going to bear down and be at his best when there are runners on base. Most importantly, he’s going to give the Mets a chance to win.
In the first, Lugo navigated his way out of a jam after a Martin Prado two run homer. Lugo would intentionally walk Justin Bour after a Giancarlo Stanton two out double to get to Jeff Mathis. Lugo struck out Mathis to get out of the inning.
In the third, the Marlins would have runners at first and second with one out and Stanton walking to the plate. Lugo got Stanton to foul out, and then he got Bour to groundout to end the inning.
In the sixth, Collins wouldn’t let Lugo get out if the “jam.” After a Bour one out single, Collins lifted Lugo at 82 pitches so face the same Mathis who Lugo struck out to get out of the first. Hansel Robles would justify Collins decision by striking out Mathis and then inducing an Adeiny Hechavarria grounder to end the inning.
That set up the Fernando Salas–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia 7-8-9 tandem to close out the 5-2 win.
Once again, the Mets scored their runs off the long ball.
In the second, James Loney, who was starting in place of Lucas Duda and his sore back, hit a two run homer off Jose Urena to tie the score.
In the fourth, Lugo started a rally with a two out double. He then came around to score on a Jose Reyes double.
In the fifth, Jay Bruce continued his hit hitting with a two run homer scoring Curtis Granderson. Over Bruce’s last five games, Bruce has gone 7-16 with three homers and five RBI. That accounts for roughly 40% of Bruce’s homers and RBI as a Met.
With that, the Mets magic number to win the Wild Card now stands at three with three games left in the season. The Mets control their own destiny, and as long as they put together three more games like this, they will certainly return to the postseason.
Game Notes: Granderson was 4-4 with a walk. He has now reached on eight straight plate appearances. Asdrubal Cabrera somehow went 0-5. Juan Lagares came on for Bruce for defense, and he was 0-1 at the plate. Familia recorded his 50th save of the season surpassing Francisco Cordero and Jose Valverde for the most saves by a Dominican born pitcher in a season.
Last season, on the eve of September, Sandy Alderson went out and obtained Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up until that point in the season, Reed was having a poor year that included a demotion to AAA. In his 38 appearances with the Diamondbacks, he was 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP while only striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings. When Reed joined the Mets, he became a much different pitcher. In his 17 September appearances, he was 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. With that, Reed locked down the seventh inning a Mets team and bullpen that would go all the way to the World Series.
Fernando Salas could be this year’s version of Addison Reed.
Like Reed, Alderson went out and got Salas right before the waiver trade deadline. Similar to Reed, Alderson pounced on a reliever with a good track record, had some closing experience, and was having a down year. In Salas’ 58 appearances with the Angels, he was 3-6 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP. Now, he had been pitching better in August, but he still had a 3.48 ERA for the month. That’s a nice reliever to have, but that’s not the lockdown seventh inning reliever a team with World Series aspirations needs.
Well, like Reed the year before, Salas has become a better pitcher with the Mets. In his 14 appearances with the Mets, Salas has a sterling 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP. He has gone from striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings to striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings with the Mets. Salas is maintaining this high level with the Mets despite his throwing the fifth most innings in all of baseball in the month of September.
What is interesting bout Salas’ turnaround is that his stuff hasn’t changed all that much from the Angels to the Mets. He is getting slightly more movement, but it’s not so appreciable that he would become a completely different pitcher. He still rarely uses his slider, and he uses his changeup as an out pitch. Looking at these numbers, you would expect a regression. However, there is something different Salas is doing that is not indicated here that gives you hope this tremendous stretch is for real. He’s throwing strikes.
Salas went from walking 3.0 batters per nine innings this year with the Angels to not walking anyone with the Mets. The reason is Salas is throwing more strikes. He’s getting into the games, establishing his fastball quickly, and he is pounding the zone.
A large part of this is Salas making a concerted effort to throw more strikes. Another part of the reason is the difference between the Mets catchers and the Angels catchers. Again, Travis d’Arnaud has shown himself to be one of the better pitch framers in all of baseball. Rene Rivera is also having a better season in that respect than he has had in year’s past. As for the Angels catchers Carlos Perez and Jeff Bandy, they have not been good pitch framers at all this season. The difference between the two sets of catchers is a big one. It is the difference between falling behind early in the count allowing you to set up a batter for a strikeout to trying to get a pitch over so you don’t issue a free pass. It is the difference between a called strike three and a batter getting a free pass.
Overall, Salas has been the beneficiary of the Mets catchers exceptional pitch framing. The Mets have been the beneficiaries of Salas’ pitching. With him, the Mets have a pitcher that has allowed them to ease off the overworked Reed and Jeurys Familia down the stretch. With him, the Mets have a terrific 7-8-9 trio to close out important games.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.