After needlessly trading Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays an missing out on Trevor Bauer, the Mets are left looking for a depth starting pitcher. Ideally, they want a pitcher who can both allow them to have David Peterson start the year in Triple-A and push Joey Lucchesi when Noah Syndergaard is ready to return to the rotation.
There are still a few options available. There is James Paxton who is coming back from injury and seems eternally injury prone. There is also Taijuan Walker who has had poor velocity and spin on his pitches. The Mets are also talking with Jake Arrieta who has not been the same since leaving the Chicago Cubs.
Seeing the lengths to which the Mets are going to find that one extra starter, you do wonder how long it will take before they consider bringing back Rick Porcello. While it may not be a popular decision, it would be a decision that would make a lot of sense for the Mets.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Porcello was bad in 2020. In 12 starts, Porcello was 1-7 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.508 WHIP. He had a career worst 75 ERA+, and he allowed a 11.3 hits per nine. By nearly every measure, this was the worst season of Porcello’s career, and for many, this happening with Porcello being 31 was an indication he was effectively done being a Major League caliber starting pitcher.
Before addressing that, we should consider his August 5 start. In that game, Porcello earned his one and only win as a member of the Mets. Over seven innings, he would allow one earned on five hits while walking none and striking out four. Aside from his winning that game, there was something else unique and important about that game. In that game, the Mets had Luis Guillorme and Andres Gimenez up the middle, and they were flashing the leather.
That game was an important reminder Porcello is a sinkerball pitcher who pitches to contact. Really, he wasn’t a different pitcher in that game as he was in most of the season. The real difference was the defense behind him.
Again, the Mets defense was terrible in most of 2020. In fact, their -22 DRS was the fifth worst in the majors. That’s one of the reasons why Mets pitchers had a .316 BABIP which was the fourth worst in the majors. All told, the Mets defense was horrible, and it severely impacted not just their pitching, but it really derailed their season. It’s at this point we should revisit Porcello’s 2020 season.
Despite the poor results, Porcello had a 3.33 FIP which is indicative of him pitching SIGNIFICANTLY better than his final 2020 results indicated. Over at Baseball Savant, Porcello posted very good exit velocity numbers and was middle of the pack in terms of hard hit rate. Despite that, he yielded an absurdly high .373 BABIP, which was not just the worst of his career by a preposterous margin, but it was also well above his .308 career mark.
Keep in mind, Porcello generated the weakest contact he ever has in his career, and he did that in what was a Mets schedule facing a number of very good offensive teams. He also had the best HR/9 and HR/FB rate of his career. All told, there was absolutely no reason why Porcello should have had a poor year. He induced weak contact, and he was keeping the ball in the ballpark.
Well, no reason except for the atrocious Mets defense. Keep in mind most of the batted balls against him went to the left side of the Mets infield. As we know, that defense has been significantly improved with the addition of Francisco Lindor‘s Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop, and it will be further improve by having literally anyone other than J.D. Davis at third base.
Suddenly, not matter who is on the mound, those soft balls hit on the left side of the infield will be the sure outs they should have been. Also, those 50/50 balls will suddenly turn in the Mets favor. Maybe, just maybe, they will start getting to some of those balls few teams could ever turn into outs. Put another way, this is now a Mets team built to allow Porcello to be a successful starter.
Keeping in mind Porcello grew up a Mets fan and would be driven for redemption, a reunion could make a lot of sense. This is a Mets team built for him defensively, and this is a rotation in need of just one more starter to sure it up. All told, the Mets should now be looking towards Porcello instead of considering the likes of Arrieta.
With the Mets signing of Albert Almora, it is important to understand what the signing is and is not. The signing wasn’t to find the Mets everyday center fielder. Rather, this was purely a signing for depth and defensive replacement purposes.
Almora, 26, is a defensive replacement for all three outfield positions. Since 2017, he has a 6 DRS and a 11 OAA. Most of those stats were accumulated during an outstanding defensive 2018. Past that season, he has been a slightly above average defensive centerfielder. For the Mets perspective, that makes him a significant upgrade defensively.
Offensively, Almora really isn’t a good player. Since 2014, he has declined precipitously at the plate. After posting a 104 wRC+ that season, he dropped all the way down to a 36 in 2020. That 36 wasn’t even fully attributable to the shortened and disjointed season. In fact, when the ball was juiced in 2019, Almora only mustered a 64 wRC+.
However, that doesn’t mean Almora is completely over-matched at the plate. In his career, he has been able to handle left-handed pitching. In his career, he has just an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching as opposed to a 95 against left-handed pitching. Perhaps, he can be more than that. In fact, we know he once was.
On Baseball Savant, we see Almora has been able to hit both fastballs and breaking pitches fairly well at different points in his career. However, he has not been able to do both in the same season. In fact, in 2020, he did neither. Still, that doesn’t mean he can never do it. That is something to keep in mind for a player entering his prime.
In many ways, that makes Almora akin to what Juan Lagares once was for the Mets. He’s a defensive replacement who can be a viable platoon partner when he is hitting well. Of course, the fair question is what can Almora possibly offer if he’s not hitting because as we know, if he’s not hitting, he’s not really a good enough hitter to justify taking up a roster spot.
On that front, Almora has an option remaining. That means, if he’s bad, the Mets can demote him to Triple-A Syracuse. Keeping that in mind, that makes him outfield depth this organization did not have over the course of the past two seasons. Mostly, because of that, this makes signing Almora a relatively risk free move.
If Almora recaptures something, he could emerge as an important part of this Mets team. If not, he’s a good depth piece. Over the last two years, we saw Brodie Van Wagenen trade valuable prospects to try to plug this role. This offseason, the Mets did this by signing him to a free agent deal. It was a good deal at that as well. That is why, in the end, this was a very good move for the Mets. They acquired depth and fulfilled a need without having to part with much.
After the 2013 season, the New York Mets non-tendered Justin Turner for what is still inexplicable reasons. By any measure, it was a mistake to part with a player who was quality and versatile infield depth.
What we couldn’t have fully appreciated was just how much of a giant mistake it was. Really, it was an off the charts horrendous decision.
Since 2014, Turner was an All-Star, NLCS MVP, and part of the 2020 World Series champion Dodgers. While second baseman Daniel Murphy was the NLCS MVP the preceding season, no Mets third baseman accomplished these feats.
Since 2014, Turner has a 141 wRC+, 22 DRS, and a 26.6 WAR.
As a group, Mets third basemen have collectively amassed a 103 wRC+, -57 DRS, and a 17.9 WAR.
Turner has outhit, outfielded, and was just a flat out better player than anything the Mets put out on the field since he left the team. Certainly, that’s not something we ever expected from a team who had David Wright.
No one, and I repeat, no one should have realistically believed Turner would be far superior to Wright. That was absurd then. However, that wasn’t the point.
The Mets were making the claim Turner’s late season improvements weren’t of any value. They were claiming Eric Campbell was a better player. Even in 2013, those were both dubious claims.
With that, the Mets parted on cheap depth. They parted with a player on the cusp of a huge breakout. They parted with a difference maker.
Now, they’re in a position where Turner is STILL a massively better option than what the Mets have in-house. It makes you wonder if the Mets now realize this and try to bring him back, or if they’re going to keep going down this same path.
So, the Mets didn’t get Trevor Bauer. Instead, Bauer went to his hometown Los Angeles Dodgers for what might’ve been less money. Despite Bauer really not being better than the Mets fifth best starter, the over the top criticism started:
— Sal Licata (@sal_licata) February 5, 2021
https://twitter.com/bmonzoradio/status/1357780681670205441?s=21
This is just scratching the surface of what we find at the bottom of the barrel. For their sake, you hope this is just schtick because these are purely horrid opinions.
Yes, we all know the Mets didn’t get Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or George Springer. Instead, they got better players and a much deeper roster. In fact, just look at who they signed/acquired so far this offseason:
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Carrasco
- Marcus Stroman
- James McCann
- Trevor May
- Sam McWilliams
- Aaron Loup
- Joey Lucchesi
- Jordan Yamamoto
That doesn’t include interesting depth options like Jerry Blevins, Jerad Eickhoff, Jose Martinez, Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, and Arodys Vizcaino. There are other moves made on top of that.
We’ve also just learned with the Bauer bidding the Mets have at least $40 million they can invest in the 2021 team. It can also be used to extend players like Michael Conforto, Lindor, Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard.
If someone can take a look at that and what the Mets can still do, and say to you this is the same old Wilpon run Mets, they’re either lying, trying to get attention, think you’re gullible, have no idea what they’re talking about, or some mixture of these.
Make no mistake, this has been a phenomenal offseason. Yes, we can quibble with a move or two, but in the end, calling this anything but a success is dumb. Really, the people pushing these narratives really know better.
Well, at least they should. They should because it’s absurd to think adding a top five player in the game on Lindor on top of everything else they did is disappointing or a failure. It’s really beyond absurd.
This has been nothing short of a great offseason. Arguably, it’s among if not the best the Mets have ever had.
Trevor Bauer signed a three year deal with the New York Mets with an opt out after the first year. That seems to put a capper on a big spending offseason for Steve Cohen and the Mets.
Trevor Bauer and the #Mets have a deal.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 5, 2021
https://twitter.com/craigcartonlive/status/1357465831588958212?s=21
Except, Bauer actually didn’t agree to a deal with the Mets. Rather, he’s still negotiating with the Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Trevor Bauer and the Mets do not have a deal yet, per sources.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) February 5, 2021
Apparently this needs a Retweet ? https://t.co/k3jgoaL4Bn
— Rachel Luba (@AgentRachelLuba) February 5, 2021
Regardless of how you feel about Bauer, this is just the latest in what has been an absolutely exhausting week and year so far for Mets fans. In fact, it’s Tomas Nido who sums it up best by saying:
Wtf Bob
— Tomas Nido (@tnido24) February 5, 2021
Hopefully, we just get a resolution to this soon because the only thing more exhausting than the Mets crises has been Bauer’s entire free agency. In the end, we can only hope the Mets do what is right for 2021 and beyond.
Entering free agency, there were three players who were in the top 20 in wRC+ and the top five in DRS at second base since 2016. The first two, DJ LeMahieu and Kolten Wong signed free agent deals.
The third is Jonathan Schoop.
Schoop is a far superior defender to LeMahieu, and he’s a better hitter than Wong. He’s also the youngest of the trio, and he’s a right-handed hitter.
At 28, Schoop is arguably in the prime of his career, and he just posted a 114 wRC+ with the Detroit Tigers, which was the second best mark of his career. The 2 OAA was also a strong mark at the position in 2020. Seeing all of that, you do have to wonder why he isn’t a more highly pursued free agent.
Looking more broadly, Schoop has posted a 100 wRC+ or better in three out of the past four seasons. He has also seen his walk rate increase slightly which has coincided with a three year improvement in OBP, SLG, and wRC+.
On defense, DRS has shown him having a precipitous drop from a 10 DRS in 2018 to consecutive 0 DRS seasons. Conversely, OAA has him averaging a 3 OAA per season.
All told, he’s a good defender with a good bat and fairly decent speed. Notably, his base running has been consistently improving. Seeing all of this it’s very strange to see how he’s still on the market.
One of the reasons why could be his poor exit velocity, barrel, and walk numbers. Looking at Baseball Savant, those numbers would indicate a player who might not have been anywhere near as good as his 114 wRC+.
One caveat is he did injure his wrist in September after getting hit by a pitch, and he did try to play through it. However, that’s not going to explain away a season’s worth of numbers.
Looking at his career numbers, this seems to be who he actually is. He’s a free swinger who mostly puts the ball in play and has power. Whatever the reason, this approach has yielded fair to good results at least as far as second base is concerned.
On that point, his bat plays at the position. That goes double with how well he plays second defensively.
Looking at the Mets, Schoop would improve the up the middle defense while adding a right-handed bat into a heavy left-handed hitting lineup. This would allow Jeff McNeil to move to third and Luis Guillorme to be a strong pinch hitting and defensive option.
Another important note is Schoop has some versatility. In his career, he has also seen some time at third and short. If nothing else, it could give Luis Rojas options.
Overall, Schoop complements this Mets roster very well. He improves the defense, provides depth, and adds a right-handed hitter. Given the fact he’s very likely looking at a short term deal, he could be an ideal fit for the Mets at this point in the offseason.
The New York Mets are losing out on potential third base and potential depth options, there are reports the Mets are among the teams interested in Marwin Gonzalez. There are some good things Gonzalez can offer, and there are some real problems with Gonzalez.
On the bright-side, Gonzalez is a versatile player. Over the last three seasons, he has a -1 DRS at first, 2 DRS at second, 6 DRS at third, -4 DRS at short, and a 15 DRS in the outfield. Over the past three seasons, he has played every position except pitcher and catcher. He has played some capably, and he has played others at an elite level.
At least defensively, Gonzalez is a player like Jeff McNeil you can stick anywhere on the diamond, and you can feel comfortable with trusting him to play that position for a game or two or for a full season. There is immense value in that, and that is not something which should be overlooked.
However, that is part of the equation with Gonzalez. Since leaving the Houston Astros, who we now know were stealing signs, Gonzalez has not been a remotely good hitter. Over the past two years with the Minnesota Twins, Gonzalez has had an 85 wRC+. He is hitting .248/.311/.387. When you look at his Baseball Savant page, you see this is who he is now as Gonzalez is below average in hard hit rate, barrels, and walk rate.
As an everyday player, this is very problematic. When you break it down, this is someone who really isn’t a better option in the infield than what the Mets already have in Luis Guillorme. Given Gonzalez has been in decline offensively and in terms of his declining speed, it can reasonably be argued he is a step below Guillorme now. In 2021 and beyond, Guillorme is very likely going to be the superior player.
Now, that doesn’t mean the Mets don’t have the need for Gonzalez. They can certainly use the bench depth. If Luis Rojas is adept enough, he can rotate McNeil, Guillorme, and Gonzalez enough to keep them all fresh and very effective. Obviously, McNeil would get the vast majority of the playing time. It should also be noted in the event of an injury in their infield or outfield, it would benefit the team greatly to have a player like Gonzalez able to step in and play everyday.
Overall, Gonzalez would be an improvement for the Mets. If they are looking to add him for depth, it would be an incredible signing. If it is a starting job, it would be a sideways move at best. Much of how to analyze adding Gonzalez is just how the Mets intend to use and deploy him. In some ways, that is a very good problem to have.
Back to our regularly scheduled programming, the New York Mets still do not have a third baseman for the 2021 season. With the Nolan Arenado trade their options are dwindling.
We are not sure as to the realistic chances are of obtaining either Kris Bryant or Eugenio Suarez in a trade. We also know Justin Turner is seeking too many years, and his preference is to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Mets aren’t in on Kolten Wong, and there aren’t any more free agent third base options available. The end result is the Mets running out of time and options to fulfill their massive third base vacancy.
And yes, it’s a massive vacancy as J.D. Davis has proven wholly incapable of playing that or any other defensive position. As we saw last year, without a juiced ball or overly inflated BABIP, he’s not worth playing on an everyday basis.
The end result of all of this means Luis Guillorme is probably the Mets best bet. He’s shown he can be a good everyday option at second base. While some may question his bat still, his defense there is elite and can carry his offense.
This means Jeff McNeil moves to third. Last year aside, he’s proven he can play the position, and as we know, his bat will play anywhere.
If that’s the plan, it’s a good plan. The only problem is the Mets don’t have the depth to cast Guillorme in a starting role. That’s obviously not his fault, and being fair, that shouldn’t preclude him from getting the starting position he’s earned.
Overall, the Mets are nearing Spring Training, and there’s no obvious third base plan. They don’t have the internal depth, and there are very few external options available.
All told, the Mets still have a lot of work to do.
The running joke with Jeff Wilpon was what Nelson Doubleday had to say about him as he was selling away his ownership interest. For those who forgot, Doubleday said, “Jeff Wilpon said he’s going to learn how to run a baseball team and take over at the end of the year. Run for the hills, boys. I think probably all those baseball people will bail.” (Bergen Record).
Well, the joke has officially stopped being funny.
Wilpon was worse than anyone could’ve imagined. Really, who would’ve thought forcing an injured Pedro Martinez to pitch against doctor and manager advice wasn’t the worst thing he’s done. Imagine firing Willie Randolph in the middle of the night after the first game of a West coast trip wasn’t the most embarrassing.
No, Jeff Wilpon has done far worse. He was nothing short of a monster who was enabled by his father, Bud Selig, and Rob Manfred.
Jeff Wilpon was alleged to have tied the ability of a pregnant woman to receive a bonus with her ability to get married. He was also alleged to have said, “I am as morally opposed to putting an e-cigarette sign in my ballpark as I am to Leigh having this baby without being married.”
When she complained to Human Resources, she was advised to quit. Those HR complaints eventually led to a firing and a lawsuit.
When Jose Reyes was cut by the Colorado Rockies after his assaulting his wife leading to his arrest and her going to the hospital, the Mets brought him back. Not just that, Reyes’ family was put on display as Reyes played in a game with the Brooklyn Cyclones as he got himself into game shape.
Even with Reyes performing poorly, he wasn’t cut. In fact, Reyes would get a raise when he hit free agency. In his final year, Reyes was nominated for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year award.
Jeff Wilpon could attempt to explain these away. He can’t explain away or defend what happened with Mickey Callaway. That one is directly on him, and it exhibits who he is as a human being.
As reported by Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic, at the time he was hired by the Mets, Callaway’s harassment of female reporters was “the worst kept secret in baseball.”
Now, this is the Wilpon run Mets, and they weren’t exactly known for their thoroughness or even competence. Really, you can believe the Mets had no idea about Callaway’s behavior as they rushed through the process of hiring him after one interview.
From what we learned about the Jared Porter incident, it at least appeared there was a cover-up by the Chicago Cubs organization. However, by his own admission, Sandy Alderson didn’t reach out to speak to any women before hiring Porter.
Now, we have a second issue with a person Alderson hired. As reported by Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic, former Mets manager Mickey Callaway was a serial and unrepentant sexual harasser of reporters.
Unlike with Porter, Callaway’s disturbing behavior was “the worst kept secret in baseball.” That’s an important point here.
Yes, it needs to be noted Callaway’s first year with the Mets coincided with Alderson’s last. It must also be noted Callaway’s abuse of female reporters while he was acting as the Mets manager was reported to the Mets after Alderson officially left the organization.
Still, it would at least seem as if this should have been something which could’ve been discovered. It’s very possible, like with Porter, the background checks were quite lacking. It’s also possible the Mets simply didn’t care.
Really, it’s clear baseball didn’t care. The Cleveland Indians didn’t care as they kept him on as pitching coach and recommended him for managerial jobs. The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t care as they aggressively pursued him. Apparently, the Mets didn’t care either.
The same can be said for Joe Maddon and the Los Angeles Angels who rushed to hire him as pitching coach.
Right now, at least as the Mets are currently concerned, this is about Sandy Alderson. Alderson has now twice missed egregious behavior.
Now, as we saw with Porter, it’s at least feasible to believe he could have missed that as it was a cover-up. However, on that note, Alderson revealed the country of origin of the reporter despite the great lengths taken by all to conceal it to protect the victim.
We also know who Alderson’s boss was. Jeff Wilpon fired an unwed pregnant woman. He held out Jose Reyes as a role model. He was also aware of what Callaway did in his capacity as Mets manager, and not only did he retain Callaway, but he also was Callaway’s biggest supporter.
It’s eminently possible the Mets found this out at the interview stage and didn’t care. It’s also possible when Callaway “lit up the room,” the Mets jumped the gun before they could do a full vetting.
There’s a lot of things which are plausible explanations which fully exonerate Alderson missing sexual harassment from two of his highest profile hires. However, you look at it, Alderson missed it both times.
Keep in mind, that’s what we know. There may be more in the past, and for all we know, there may be people currently in the organization with similar transgressions. We don’t know, and based on what we’ve seen from the vetting process under Alderson, he may not have known either.
Whatever the case, this happened twice, and that’s twice too many. It’s unfair to call for Alderson’s job right now. However, it is not only fair, but it is absolutely necessary Alderson answer internally and publicly for how he missed this twice.
He also needs to answer for how he’s going to review the current front office as well as how he can ensure this never happens under his watch again.