Sometimes, when a player comes to mind, we tend to think of the one breakout year and not the collective body of work. Mark Canha is one of those players.
In 2019, Canha was terrific. He hit .273/.396/.517 with 16 doubles, three triples, 26 homers, and 58 RBI. He had a 146 OPS+ and a 4.1 WAR.
Defensively, Canha was good posting a 2 OAA in left and right. This was as complete and under appreciated and ballplayer as they come.
Canha was this player in 2019 and 2019 only. In all the other years of his career, he’s fallen far short of the OPS+ and WAR numbers. The more we see him, the more we see 2019 as his outlier year.
In many ways, that’s a problem. Remember, 2019 was the last year things were normal, and we tend to remember it more. Moreover, that year featured a juiced ball, and Canha with his career best .244 ISO benefitted.
Since that 2019 season, Canha hasn’t been the same player. He’s really been hurt by the lack the the juiced ball and aging.
Since 2019, when Canha was 30, he’s hit .235/.366/.393. He was a 115 OPS+ and 4.0 WAR player over that 200 game stretch. That’s not the same player.
That’s shown more through the metrics. His exit velocities dropped two straight years. The same goes for his barrels and hard hit rates. Put another way, this is a player making far less quality contact, and he’s at an age where these stats don’t typically improve.
Canha received a two year $26.5 million deal. That’s starter money. More to the point, Canha isn’t signing this early to sit on the bench.
The Mets could’ve and should’ve done better than Canha. Remember, he’s not the player he was in 2019, and he’s been regressing as he nears his mid 30s. Overall, this wasn’t a great move.
There’s a gag on the show Archer wherein Archer is essentially asked what he can’t understand, and the answer is, “Core concept.” Right now, this applies to the New York Mets and free agency.
Noah Syndergaard was a free agent, who had a qualifying offer in hand and wanted to return to the Mets. However, while the Mets were focused elsewhere, the Los Angeles Angels and other teams were making their pitch.
The Mets immediate response to Syndergaard’s signing with the Angels was they weren’t given the last chance to sign him. Of course, to make that request, they’d actually have to talk to the player.
Not even a week went by, and the Mets are once again upset a player who wanted to return to the Mets didn’t give them an opportunity to make the final offer. This time, it was Steven Matz.
As the story goes, Matz first contacted the Mets, and the team’s interest was mutual. It was a wide open field, but for whatever reason, the Mets not only we’re going to get the opportunity to match, but they were willing to match the deal Matz signed with the St. Louis Cardinals.
However, that’s not what happened. Matz liked the deal and the opportunity presented by the Cardinals, so he signed with them. Mets owner Steve Cohen was angry:
I’m not happy this morning . I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent.I guess words and promises don’t matter.
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) November 24, 2021
Keep in mind, this was the same Matz the Mets traded for spare parts (Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Diaz, and Josh Winckowski). The Mets could’ve extended him last year with zero competition, but they instead traded him.
The Mets getting upset over Syndergaard and Matz not giving them the final chance shows they fail to understand the core concept of free agency. Free agents owe no loyalty to anyone, and they can sign with whomever they want.
For the Mets, you can almost write this off as a fluke. After all, it’s not often these situations present themselves, and it’s really infrequent this happens in a week.
The problem is it’s not just this week. Last year, the Mets thought they had Trevor Bauer signed. Honestly, with the website snafu, everyone did.
When Bauer went to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Alderson complained this was the furthest in the process he went in contract negotiations with a free agent and not get the player. As a result, Anderson and the Mets (fortunately) didn’t sign Bauer.
This marks the third time the Mets thought they were in a great position to sign a player only to come up empty. At some point, that’s a Mets problem and not a agents problem.
Argue over whether the Mets should’ve signed these players all you want. The fact is the Mets lost out on all three, and they wanted all three. That’s a huge problem.
Cohen can pretend it’s the agents fault. It’s not. The Mets are failing to sign players, and all they can do is tweet their way through it.
The Mets need to do better. If they want a player give them a strong offer while they’re there and don’t let them go out and leverage your offer. Just get it done, and then tweet out you actually signed the player.
That’s how free agency works.
As previously noted, Steven Matz has defined himself as the old crafty lefty. He’s a back end of the rotation starter who pitches to contact.
As such, he’s going to succeed or fail largely based on the defense behind him. Considering the New York Mets defense behind him was a sick joke, he faltered.
It was so bad, he went to a bad defensive Toronto Blue Jays team, and it seemed like he was a completely different pitcher. Truth be told, the bad defense is a significant improvement over incompetent defense, and so, he thrived.
This is exactly why St. Louis was the prefect landing spot for Matz. His four year $44 million deal with the Cardinals benefits him and that team.
This past year the Cardinals were the first team to boast five Gold Glovers in Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neil, and Harrison Bader. Notably, two-thirds of the Cardinals outfield was golden.
Remember, Matz is a pitcher who yields batted balls in the air roughly 55% of the time. The Cardinals 29 DRS in the outfield helps him immensely.
Fact is, the Cardinals have long been a defense forward thinking organization. Their entire team had an 81 DRS, good for second best in the majors.
Combine this with Mike Maddux being one of the best pitching coaches in the game, and you have the absolute best place for Matz. There was literally no better spot, and he’s going to thrive there unlike anywhere else.
That’s not to say he wouldn’t have thrived with the Mets. We know he can because we saw it. If he came back to the Mets to work with Jeremy Hefner, their vastly developing and improving analytics department, and their improved defense, Matz would’ve done well.
Matz just wouldn’t have done as well with the Mets as he will with the Cardinals. Truth be told, Matz needed a better situation, and the Mets needed a better pitcher. If the Mets do what they need to do this offseason, this is best for all involved.
There can be a debate as to when the New York Mets knew they needed a front office overhaul. It could’ve been since the start of the season since they failed to hire a president of baseball operations last year.
It could’ve been as late as Zack Scott’s DUI arrest. Whatever the case, the Mets knew before the end of the season they needed a front office overhaul.
What ensued was a protracted search which missed the mark. First, the Mets again gave up on hiring a POBO. Then, it was a GM search.
While this was happening, other teams went to work on their offseason plans. That goes double for the Los Angeles Angels.
While the Mets had no leadership and no plan, Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels. While the Mets had radio silence, the Angels were laying out their plan from their assembled front office. The sales pitch and uncertainty had an effect on Syndergaard and his decision:
"This is kind of a make or break time for me. I didn't want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that was going on with them"
Noah Syndergaard after he was asked if the Mets' GM and managerial search impacted his free agency decision pic.twitter.com/qIzgRxwYXz
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 19, 2021
While Syndergaard was due partially to confusion over the front office, Aaron Loup was something else. Loup was great for the Mets, and he wanted to stay. He didn’t.
During the Mets exclusive window to negotiate with Loup, they were trying to assemble a front office. Again, while this was happening, the Angels were making their pitch to Loup. Obviously, it was a successful one.
So, Billy Eppler hasn’t been on the job for a week, and he’s seen Syndergaard and Loup leave. That’s not to say the Mets aren’t moving. After all, they’re pursuing Steven Matz.
Again, the Mets are working from behind. The Angels aren’t and have struck twice. Who knows where this stops, especially with Marcus Stroman still a free agent.
The Mets have time to act, but free agent starters are flying off the board. More to the point, the Angels are taking some of their best pitchers, and it’s possible it’ll happen again soon.
The New York Mets desperately need a third baseman. This has basically been the case since David Wright initially went down in 2015, and it’s the case now.
There’s two issues with filling that vacancy. First and foremost, the third base free agent pool is not great. Case-in-point, Kris Bryant is far and away the best option, and he may not be a third baseman anymore.
The Mets could try to sign a shortstop like or Corey Seager to move them to third, but that’s easier said than done. If you can sign any one of them, you do it.
Yes, that’s the case when the Mets have Mark Vientos and Brett Baty. Neither are guaranteed to succeed in the majors or stick at third. Notably, for a Mets system bereft of outfield talent, both players have played some left field.
This leaves the Mets with a conundrum. They can’t hand the position to a prospect. For some reason, they don’t trust Jeff McNeil. It’ll be difficult to get a shortstop and move him to third.
Well, that leaves them looking for a stopgap. It’s not the solution anyone wants, but it’s the situation they find themselves. Glossing over the free agent list, Kyle Seager jumps off the page.
Seager, 34, is very clearly past his prime. He’s not the 5+ WAR player he was five years ago. The Mets don’t need him to be that. Really, they just need him to be Seager.
In 159 games last year, Seager hit a woeful .212/.285/.438 with good power numbers. Seager had 29 doubles, a triple, 35 homers, and 101 RBI. Ultimately, he had a 100 OPS+ making him the epitome of a league average hitter.
Behind those numbers was a dip in his walk rate, an uptick in his strikeout rate, and a shockingly low .226 BABIP. While he’s traditionally been a lower BABIP guy, he’s never really been that low.
Judging from Baseball Savant, Seager is still able to square up a ball and drive it. After all, you don’t play in Safeco and hit 35 homers without that ability. Still, his exit velocity dipped in three straight years.
With better plate discipline, and his working with a hitting coach (whoever that will be), Seager could be better than he was in 2021. At the very least, he could be back around league average even if the numbers look different.
If that’s the case, that would be great news for a team like the Mets. While Seager is known for his power, the real value lies in his glove. While he’s not the Gold Glover he once was, he’s still very good at the position.
In 2021, Seager had a 4 OAA. That’s a slight uptick from the 3 OAA he had in 2019 and 2020. That 4 OAA ranked tied for eighth in the majors. His 13 OAA since 2019 also ranks eighth.
Seager is a very good glove, and that’s of increased importance with the Mets. While the pitching staff will be rebuilt, they still have ground ball pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation.
Adding Seager at third would improve the Mets. His glove would make the pitching better, and there’s still something in that bat. In the event the Mets can’t convince a Correa to move to third, Seager is definitely the stopgap option which would help improve this team.
Takahashi Kashiwada. Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Satoru Komiyama. Kazuo Matsui. Ryota Igarashi. With all due respect to Masato Yoshii, the New York Mets forays into Japan have typically ended very poorly.
While the process and luck has been bad, it’s meaningless when looking to any players out of Japan. Enter Seiya Suzuki.
The 27 year old Suzuki has been a great hitter in Japan with an OPS over 1.000 in three out of the last four seasons. In terms of age and production, it’s where Hideki Matsui was before coming to the New York Yankees.
Matsui thrived in New York. He was a two Time All-Star and a World Series MVP. Again, this means nothing as compared to Suzuki. All it does is just show a Japanese star in his prime can thrive in New York.
There seems to be a consensus Suzuki will sign for an AAV between $7 – $10 million per year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Suzuki would sign for five years $55 million.
Some believe he’s a five tool player, and he’s the best player in Japan. Some wonder if he can translate his skills to Major League pitching. No one knows, but at that price, it’s worth the gamble for the Mets.
Remember, they don’t just need one outfielder; they need two. Right now, Brandon Nimmo is their only real Major League everyday outfielder on the roster.
As we see, the Mets options are flawed and limited. They need to re-sign Michael Conforto, and they still need another outfielder. No one on the free agent market has Suzuki’s upside.
When you need two outfielders in a thin free agent class, you need to take some calculated risks. If you’re the Mets, and you’re really going to go for it, $10 million to Suzuki is a worthwhile gamble.
Past history with Japanese players should mean nothing. All that matters is the Mets have a desperate need for an outfielder, they have money, and Suzuki could be great for them.
With the deadline to protect Rule 5 players, you’ll typically see some shocking moves. The New York Yankees designating Clint Frazier ranks as a shocking move.
While shocking, it probably wasn’t all that surprising. It never really worked for him with the Yankees, and there are questions about whether he’s really recovered from his concussions and/or if he had other neurological issues.
id love to have the opportunity to talk about this situation publicly and probably plan to do so soon — my issues have been very personal to me and something i've wanted to handle privately but there's been a lot of inaccurate things reported about my injury that i'll clear up. https://t.co/4Ju9ZGUhcA
— Clint Frazier (@clintfrazier) October 11, 2021
Whatever the case, Frazier’s time with the Yankees appears to be over, and he will be with a new organization in 2022. That organization should be the New York Mets.
As constituted, the Mets only have Brandon Nimmo as an outfielder right now. Perhaps, depending on what they do this offseason, Jeff McNeil can slot back in left field. And no, once and for all Dominic Smith is not a LF.
In the minors, Khalil Lee is all the Mets have has Major League ready outfield depth. While we shouldn’t take away too much from an 11 game stint, he didn’t appear ready.
He looked overmatched for the most part. Certainly, he made improvements and should continue to improve. That said, he can’t be counted on as depth on Opening Day.
That’s what Frazier could be. He could be real depth for the Mets with upside. In some ways, he could provide the Mets with what Billy McKinney (another player designated for assignment) provided the Mets in 2021.
The two biggest positives with Frazier is he still hits the ball extremely hard, and his walk rate continues to improve. There is real offensive promise there, and a mixture of a new team, different analytical approach, and a new hitting coach could get Frazier to reach his potential.
On the latter two, we know the Mets are still addressing these needs. With the right people, the Mets could not only get the most out of Frazier, but really anyone on the team.
With Frazier, the bat isn’t the issue. There is enough to but in on the potential. That same probably can’t be said of the defense.
Aside from 2020, Frazier has put up a negative OAA. Part and parcel with that is Frazier’s decreasing spring speed. Even with improved positioning, it’s difficult to see how his defense would improve suddenly.
Of course, Frazier’s defense can improve, as we saw in 2020, but it’s difficult to see it improve to the point where he doesn’t hurt you everyday. With Frazier, that’s not an issue.
If the Mets got Frazier as a fourth outfielder, they can pick and choose his spots in the outfield. An even bigger benefit is he’s a right-handed bat who can complement what the Mets already have.
For this reason alone, this merits putting in a waiver claim on him. Perhaps, the Mets could swing a minor trade to endure they get him. In either event, there’s still real upside with Frazier, and the Mets could use another outfielder.
In the end, Frazier is very low risk with high reward. He’s well worth the gamble. That goes double for a Mets team which desperately needs outfielders.
According to recent rumors, the New York Mets are interested in a Steven Matz reunion. Given Matz’s love of the Mets and his 2021 season, it makes sense.
With the Toronto Blue Jays, Matz made 29 starts going 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA, 150.2 IP, 1.334 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. From an advanced stat perspective, he had a 2.0 WAR, 115 ERA+, and a 3.79 FIP.
Looking at Baseball Savant, Matz success was predicated on control and reducing the quality of contact against him. Put another way, Matz is settling into being that crafty lefty who is a mediocre third starter and quality back end of the rotation arm.
While there were some changes to sequencing and the like, Matz’s improvement was mostly due to the Blue Jays defense. With Matz “pitching to contact,” he needs a quality defense. The Mets were never that in his tenure, and he suffered.
While not outstanding, the Blue Jays team 22 DRS ranked 15th in the majors. Again, it’s amazing how much better a pitcher looks with a competent defense behind him. Ironically, the Mets are now much better than that with a 48 DRS in 2021.
Between the shifting and Francisco Lindor, Matz and his ground ball propensity would truly thrive with the Mets. Maybe now, Matz will pitch more like a three. If so, that would be great for the Mets.
The problem is the Mets really need more than that. Their top two starters in Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are on the wrong side of 30, and they have injury issues heading into 2022. Taijuan Walker was great for the first half, but then he really faltered and ended the year with a 90 ERA+.
In reality, the Mets need two top of the rotation starters. No matter what the adjustments, Matz will never really be that. That’s not a criticism of him. He’s a quality Major League starter, just not the starter the Mets need now.
If deGrom was fully healthy, and if Walker was guaranteed to take the next step, yes, go sign Matz. He’d be a great fit. Honestly, he still might, and no one should be upset if he was signed. That said, the Mets need better.
Noah Syndergaard shocked New York Mets fans when he accepted a one year deal from the Los Angeles Angels for one year for $21 million. That was worth more than the $18.4 million qualifying offer from the Mets.
Up until this point, Syndergaard had made it clear he wanted to stay with the Mets. That was until free agency began. After that, the Mets cut off all communication, and while the Mets were quick to point out they didn’t get an opportunity to match, they also weren’t going to match.
Noah Syndergaard to the Angels is a significant loss for the Mets, who need to add probably two starting pitchers this offseason.
The Mets had a lengthy, exclusive window to sign Syndergaard, who was open about his desire and expectation to stay in New York. They didn’t take it.
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) November 16, 2021
The response from Mets fans hasn’t been bewilderment over how the team let a rehabbing ace leave. It wasn’t irritation over Sandy Alderson cutting off communication with Syndergaard like he once did with Daniel Murphy, Another Mets star who desperately wanted to stay.
The response was questioning Syndergaard’s loyalty and integrity. The belief now is he never wanted to stay. It’s on Twitter, sports radio, and of course, SNY.
Like many players, free agent Marcus Stroman especially, Syndergaard is very online. He was part of the conversation, and at times, he drove it. We also know he can be sensitive. This is the same Syndergaard who will be a free agent after the 2022 season.
We all should be expecting Syndergaard to have the Zack Wheeler type turnaround at the end of 2022 and heading into 2023. Certainly, money will dictate, like it did here, but seeing the treatment on his way out the door, why would Syndergaard want to return to this fanbase?
This is the same fanbase who had an issue mercilessly booing players this season. Incredibly, that initially happened when the Mets were in first place.
Homegrown player Michael Conforto was booed as he tried to return from COVID. Francisco Lindor was booed as he struggled to adapt to New York and all the things Chili Davis did wrong as a hitting coach.
When Javier Baez was acquired, things went from bad to worse. Baez crossed the line booing back with the thumbs down, and he dragged Lindor into it. That caused the fans to get worse until Báez was great again.
At that point, Báez was cheered and was loved. Keep in mind, Báez is a free agent. He initially talked about wanting to stay to play with his best friend, and we know Alderson has always loved him as a player.
Will Báez return? Who knows? Not everyone is Mike Piazza and wants to deal with the booing and fight to overcome it. No, some players don’t want to have to deal with the negativity which comes with the boos, Twitter nonsense, and sports radio and SNY trying to come up with the biggest nonsense.
Believe it or not, players want to get paid and play. They want to win. They want to be loved and respected by the fans.
They don’t want to deal with fans who turn their back on players because they leave, get hurt/sick, or struggle. They don’t want to deal with fans dumb enough to buy the outright lies Alderson continues to feed them (remember payroll will increase when attendance does?)
As fans, you are permitted to do whatever you want, and you can continue to parrot whatever ownership tells you. However, at some point, you have to question when is your collective behavior going to be counterproductive and keep some players away.
After all, if Syndergaard does break out, why would we want to return in 2022 after the way he was treated? What would he say to other players who are thinking of playing for the Mets? Therein lies the problem.