Earlier posts addressed the Mets postseason pitching experience as well as the Dodgers postseason offense. While it is interesting to see how theses players fared in October’s past, I’m more interested in seeing how the Mets pitchers have performed against the Dodgers (* – not on team, ** – not on projected roster):
July 3, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Noah Syndergaard ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Hansel Robles W, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia S, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K
July 4, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Matt Harvey L, 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4
Alex Torres* 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 5, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Steven Matz W, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Logan Verrett** S, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
July 23, 2015 Citi Field
Bartolo Colon L, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Sean Gilmartin, 0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
July 24, 2015 Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Carlos Torres** 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 25, 2015 Citi Field
Matt Harvey W, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Jenrry Mejia* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 26, 2015 Citi Field
Jacob deGrom ND, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Jeurys Familia, BS, 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Jenrry Mejia, W, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Cumulative
Here are the cumulative stats for the pitchers who are projected to make the playoff roster:
Noah Syndergaard, 0-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Matt Harvey 1-1, 12.0 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 8 K
Steven Matz 1-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Bartolo Colon 0-1, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Jon Niese 0-1, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Jacob deGrom 0-0, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Hansel Robles 1-0, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Jeurys Familia S, BS, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Overall, with the exception of Niese, who will not start in the NLDS, have pitched well against the Dodgers. The Mets pitchers faced most of the Dodgers batters they will face in the playoffs. These stats give me confidence the Mets can win this series.
One of the first ever blog posts I wrote, not for this site, was about CC Sabathia. Honestly, I never thought I would write another post about him again until I read about him going into rehab:
Statement from CC Sabathia: pic.twitter.com/B3BjaOSblD
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 5, 2015
Whenever something like this happens it’s always hard to tell if it’s a good or bad day. Yes, it’s a good thing that he admits there is a problem. It’s a good thing he is getting the help he needs. It’s a good thing he’s not risking his health for a playoff run. However, it’s always sad when someone needs the help.
You know Sabathia wants to go out there. You know he wants to be there for his teammates. However, he’s finally come to the point where he realizes he’s of no use to anyone right now; at least not until he’s sober. This is why I won’t question the timing. There’s always an excuse why it’s not a good time. The truth is the best time to start rehab is immediately.
You’re not going to get better until you start. He’s started. He’s now facing the biggest opponent he’s ever faced. He’s not fighting for a Cy Young, to make the playoffs, or a World Series. He’s fighting for his career. He’s fighting for his team. He’s fighting for his life. He’s fighting for his family.
I don’t make it a point to root for Yankees, but I’ll make an exception here. I’m rooting for him. If he comes back and bests the Mets next year, I won’t be happy with the loss, but I’ll be thrilled he’s still on the road to recovery.
Good luck CC.
The Dodgers pitching staff features the big two of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. They’re the two biggest obstacles to the NLCS. However, as you know and see below, they’ve had uneven performances in the postseason. Here’s how they’ve fared along with the rest of the Dodgers pitching staff:
Clayton Kershaw (8 starts, 3 relief appearances) 1-5, 5.12 ERA, 1.235 WHIP in 51.0 innings
Zack Greinke (7 starts) 2-2, 3.63 ERA, 1.052 WHIP in 44.2 innings
Brett Anderson (1 start, 1 relief appearance) 1-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.947 ERA in 6.1 innings
Luis Avilan (4 appearances) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP in 2.2 innings
Joel Peralta (6 appearances) 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.235 WHIP in 5.2 innings
Jim Johnson (5 appearances) 0-1, 2 saves, 8.44 ERA, 1.688 WHIP in 5.1 innings
Kenley Jansen (7 appearances) 0-0, 3 saves, 3.38 ERA, 1.313 WHIP in 5.1 innings
J.P. Howell (23 appearances) 0-3, 3.26 ERA, 1.397 WHIP in 19.1 innings
Pedro Baez (2 appearances) 0-0, 7.71 ERA, 0.857 WHIP in 2.1 innings
I know Kershaw has not had a great postseason history, but sooner or later, he’s going to figure it out. The Dodgers may ride him and Greinke four out of five games. If that’s the case, the Mets need to work the count and up the pitch counts, they can hit the Dodgers terrible bullpen.
This is the Mets best chance of beating the Dodgers.
Unlike the Mets, the Dodgers have a wealth (pun intended) of postseason experience. Here’s how they fared:
Adrian Gonzalez (18 games) .294/.360/.500 with four homeruns and 10 RBIs
Howie Kendrick (16 games) .186/.197/.288 with one homerun and two RBIs
Jimmy Rollins (46 games) .250/.314/.372 with three homeruns and 15 RBIs
Carl Crawford (35 games) .275/.309/.472 with seven homeruns and 16 RBIs
Yasiel Puig (14 games) .314/.364/.412 with zero homeruns and five RBIs
Andre Ethier (30 games) .231/.333/.407 with three homeruns and six RBIs
Scott Van Slyke (3 games) .000/.000/.000
A.J. Ellis (14 games) .386/.481/.682 with two homeruns and five RBIs
Chase Utley (46 games) .262/.402/.500 with 10 homeruns and 25 RBIs
Justin Turner (2 games) .000/.000/.000
Alberto Callaspo (7 games) .222/.222/.333 with no homeruns and one RBI
Chris Heisey (6 games) .000/.000/.000
From this we learn what we already knew, Gonzalez and Puig (if healthy) are the Mets biggest problems. Shutting them down will the key to winning the NLDS.
With that said, I’m confident in the Mets pitching staff. It’s why I think the Mets will win this series.
Yesterday, the Mets announced the players they are putting on the taxi squad: Eric Young, Jr., Anthony Recker, Logan Verrett, Eric Campbell, and Bobby Parnell. I think we can separate the remaining players into three categories: (1) players definitely on the roster; (2) players who are in consideration for the roster; and (3) players who are just being sent home. The players definitely on the roster has already been addressed. Here’s the other two categories:
Players under Consideration
Juan Uribe – the Mets want him on the roster, but it does not appear he’s healthy enough to play. I hope that August 23rd pinch hitting appearance was worth it.
Steven Matz – had he not slept on a couch, he would’ve been on the roster. Now the Mets have their fingers crossed he can pitch.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – he seems to be the front runner for Uribe’s spot. He plays all three OF positions, has speed, and has some pop in his bat. He’s had a rough year, but he’s had some big hits since returning to the Mets.
Dilson Herrera – he’s the Mets best defensive infielder even if he only plays 2B. He’s got potential offensively and defensively. He has not realized his potential yet, but he’s still a right handed bat with pop going into a series with good left handed pitching.
Erik Goeddel – he seems to be a favorite to get a spot in the bullpen if Matz can’t pitch. In limited time, he’s shown a great splitter which has helped him with a 9.2 K/9. He could help with a strikeout in a big spot.
Sean Gilmartin – he’s been the long man, but he has reverse splits with a series with a series with huge left-handed bats. His spot is tenuous mostly with the presence of Colon, Niese, and possibly Matz on the roster.
Players Done for the Year
Johnny Monell – the Mets made their choice with Recker as the third catcher.
Carlos Torres – he took the ball whenever he was asked until he got hurt. He had a skill that helps in the regular season, but he has no room on the playoff roster.
Dario Alvarez – when he finally got a chance to pitch, he was effective. He got a huge strikeout of Bryce Harper back when the division was still in doubt. He go hurt, fought his way back, and he was ineffective.
Eric O’Flaherty – there’s not enough words to describe how bad he’s been, so I’ll keep it short. He’s horrendous.
There are still important decisions to be made. I know a lot of it hinges on Matz. I anticipate this will be a tight series, and these final choices may have a real impact. I hope they pick the right players.
Right now, it appears that Juan Uribe will miss the NLDS with torn cartilage in his rib cage. He won’t be on the roster, but the better question is, “Will the Mets miss him?”
Despite rumors to the contrary, Uribe is not a good postseason player. He’s hit .204/.241/.338 in 44 postseason games. As a Met, he’s hit .219/.301/.430 in 44 games. He has hit lefties well going .272/.350/.543. As a pinch hitter, he’s 4-21 with a homer, four walks, and nine strikeouts.
He’s 3-11 against Clayton Kershaw with a double, a homerun, and three strikeouts. He’s 5-20 against Zack Greinke with a double, a homerun, a walk, and a strikeout. He’s 1-3 with a strikeout against Alex Wood. He’s 1-2 with a double against Brett Anderson. He’s never faced Kenly Jansen.
Overall, Uribe has not been good with the Mets, even if he’s had his moments. However, he wasn’t going to play in the NLDS even with all of the Dodgers’ lefties. The Mets are not going to sit Daniel Murphy. If they were inclined to sit Lucas Duda, Michael Cuddyer would play first with Juan Lagares in center and Yoenis Cespedes in left. At best, Uribe would be a pinch hitter.
Whether or not he can play, Uribe still has an important role on this team. He has won two World Series. He’s a veteran leader. He keeps the clubhouse loose. I appreciate players feel more a part of a team while being able to play, but Uribe has shown he’s a special clubhouse guy. He’s needed in the dugout and in the clubhouse.
So no, the Mets aren’t hurt by Uribe’s inability to play. That still doesn’t mean he’s not needed.
UPDATE: Uribe is definitely out
Sandy Alderson says Juan Uribe out for division series.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) October 6, 2015
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
AL MVP
- Josh Donaldson
- Mike Trout
- Lorenzo Cain
- Manny Machado
- Jose Bautista
- Mookie Betts
- Xander Bogaerts
- Jason Kipnis
- David Price
- Dallas Keuchel
AL Cy Young
- Chris Sale
- David Price
- Dallas Keuchel
- Corey Kluber
- Chris Archer
AL Rookie of the Year
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Correa
- Aaron Sanchez
AL Manager of the Year
- Joe Girardi
- Terry Francona
- Jeff Banister
AL Reliever of the Year
- Dellin Betances
- Huston Street
- Bryan Shaw
NL MVP
- Bryce Harper
- Jayson Heyward
- Anthony Rizzo
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Zack Greinke
- Curtis Granderson
- Buster Posey
- Kris Bryant
- Clayton Kershaw
- Joey Votto
NL Cy Young
- Zack Greinke
- Clayton Kershaw
- Jake Arrieta
- Gerrit Cole
- Jacob deGrom
NL Rookie of the Year
- Kris Bryant
- Matt Duffy
- Jung Ho Kang
NL Manager of the Year
- Bruce Bochy
- Joe Maddon
- Clint Hurdle
NL Reliever of the Year
- Jeurys Familia
- Mark Melancon
- Kevin Siegrist
After releasing my AL choices earlier, here are my NL choices:
NL MVP – Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper lead the NL in runs, homeruns, slugging, OPS, OPS+, and WAR. He was second in batting average. He’s the main reason the Nationals even competed in the NL East.
NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke
This was a tight race, but I ultimately selected Zack Greinke. He lead the league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, adjusted pitching runs, and WAR. He’s second in hits per nine. He’s fifth in walks per nine, innings pitched, and FIP. Overall, he had a great year.
NL Rookie of the Year – Kris Bryant
With all the awards votes this year, I thought this one was the easiest. Kris Bryant lead all rookies in WAR, runs, hits, doubles, homeruns, and RBIs. With all that, there’s nothing else that needs to be said.
NL Manager of the Year – Bruce Bochy
Bruce Bochy is considered the best manager in baseball. He’s done nothing to disprove that this year. He’s dealt with players leaving and injuries. He kept the Giants competitive into October. If this award is truly supposed to go to the best manager, it should go to the best manager. That’s Bruce Bochy.
NL Reliever of the Year – Jeurys Familia
Jeurys Familia has been a dominant closer this year. He lead the league in one plus inning saves. He was third in appearances, but he was first in reliever innings pitched. He was third in saves. Of all the relievers in the NL, he made the biggest impact on his team.
I will publish my entire ballot later, but I’m only going to do a write-up on why I chose people to win these awards. I will also publish something on the Mets I selected on my ballots. Here are my AL selections:
AL MVP – Josh Donaldson
Josh Donaldson has been amazing this season hitting .300/.375/.577 with 41 homeruns and 123 RBIs. He leads the league in runs scored, RBIs, and total bases. He’s second in WAR. He’s the best player on the best team.
AL Cy Young – Chris Sale
I didn’t buy into the whole it’s either David Price or Dallas Keuchel. They’re being discussed because they’re on winning teams, but this isn’t a pitcher MVP Award. Chris Sale leads the league in strikeouts, FIP, and K/9. This is evident that he’s pitching in front of a weaker team than Price or Keuchel. I don’t think he should be penalized for it.
AL Rookie of the Year – Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor has been incredible this year hitting .319/.357/.491 with good defense. He leads all AL rookies in WAR. He’s having a better overall year than Carlos Correa. The overall stats were close enough that the defense of Lindor’s defense put him over the top.
AL Manager of the Year – Joe Girardi
Joe Girardi previously won this award in the NL. He is a good manager. He’s had to deal with the first post-Derek Jeter season and the return of A-Rod. He’s managed old players on the decline. He’s managed through injuries. He brought a Yankee team predicted to finish under .500 and brought them to the playoffs.
AL Reliever of the Year – Dellin Betances
Dellin Betances leads the league in appearances. He’s second in K/9. Hes got a FIP of 2.11. He’s set-up and closed. He’s been the best reliever in the AL two years running.