In baseball lingo, a quality start is defined as a start in which a pitcher allows three earned or less in at least six innings pitched. With that said, Steven Matz did indeed have a quality start today allowing six hits, three earned, and four walks with five strike outs over seven innings. Unfortunately, with a Mets offense without Yoenis Cespedes, a quality start isn’t enough.
No, the Mets needed the Matz that existed prior to the one we saw prior to everyone knowing about him being bothered by bone spurs in his elbow. From April 17th to June 7th, Matz was 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.006 WHIP. He was throwing a 94 MPH fastball 62% of the time, an 84 MPH change 11% of the time, an 88 MPH slider, 13% of the time, and a 78 MPH curve 14% of the time.
Since that game we saw him rubbing his elbow, Matz has maintained his velocity. However, he’s almost completely stopped using his slider. He now only throws it 3% of the time. Since he’s stopped throwing the slider, Matz has gone 0-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.430 WHIP. Those numbers include today’s loss.
While Matz was pitching better than he has in over a month, the Cespedesless Mets offense continued to sputter. The only offensive support came in the form of two Jose Reyes solo homers, including his Mets all-time leading 17th home run to leadoff a game. That broke the tie he had with current teammate Curtis Granderson. Reyes was the only Met with a multi-hig game one a day where the Mets only managed four hits. Juan Lagares and Asdrubal Cabrera got the other two hits.
While the Mets were starved for offense, Daniel Murphy continued to try to make the Mets rue the day they decided not to re-sign him. Murphy hit a two run homer in the first inning. The other run was scored off a Wilson Ramos RBI single in the third. Two of the Nationals’ Mets killers did it again.
Somewhat fittingly, it was De Aza who made the last out of the game for the Mets. The Mets lost 3-2 and fell six behind the Nationals after losing three out of four and six out of seven. At the very least, the Mets are still in playoff position as the second Wild Card heading into the All Star Break.
Game Notes: Alejandro De Aza started over Brandon Nimmo with the Nationals starting the lefty Gio Gonzalez.
On a field in Binghamton, New York the shortstop of the Mets’ past played alongside the Mets’ shortstop of the future. As it turns out, it was the the old shortstop, Jose Reyes, who came away impressed by the minor leaguer Amed Rosario saying, “Wow! He’s 20 years old and he looks like a veteran.” (New York Post). This is but one of the many accolades that have been bestowed upon Rosario in his young career.
The latest accolade to be bestowed upon Rosario was him being named the MLB Future’s Game. Earlier in the month it was being named to Baseball America’s All-Prospect Team for June. Somewhat surprisingly, Rosario was named to the team for his bat as he hit .381/.423/.536 with nine doubles and three triples in his time between St. Lucie and Binghamton. Rosario put up these impressive stats while continuing to play the terrific defense that was a major factor in the reason why the Mets signed the 16 year old Rosario out of the Dominican Republic in 2012.
Overall, Rosario has shown a terrific work ethic that has led to his continuous improvement. He’s gone from a .278/.328/.378 hitter for four different A league teams to a .344/.394/.459 hitter in AA. This marked improvement is why he has named the 79th best prospect by MLB.com this year. It’s why Keith Law named him baseball’s 42nd best prospect and has called him a superstar. It’s also why Baseball America named him the 98th best prospect in 2015, the 58th best prospect in 2016, and a member of the All-Prospect Team for June. Overall, it’s why Rosario keeps receiving accolades and drawing “Wows” from the people that come in contact with him. All of this and more is why the Mets aren’t going to trade Rosario.
In many ways, the Mets naming Rosario an untouchable prospect in a year they may need to make a big trade could be the biggest honor of them all. He’s earned that honor as well as all the others he has received. As long as Rosario keeps working hard and keeps improving, he’s going to receive even more.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Nothing encapsulates the difference between the Mets and Nationals right now than Daniel Murphy hitting a two run home run off of Antonio Bastardo.
In this past offseason, the Mets determined Bastardo deserved a big contract, and he has rewarded them with a 5.05 ERA. The Mets passed on Murphy, and he has taken every opportunity he has to remind them what a poor decision it was. He has 18 RBI against the Mets this year, which is his most ever against one opponent in a single season. He’s now hit six homers against the Mets, which is only one less than he hit for the Mets last postseason.
Tonight, Murphy was 3-4 with a walk, a run, four RBI, a double, and a homer. This would be all the run support Max Scherzer would need as he just dominates the Mets. He came into the night with a 2.03 ERA, a 0.839 WHIP, and a 12.3 K/9. With Yoenis Cespedes being out, it was a minor miracle that the Mets scored a first inning run off a Neil Walker sacrifice fly. It was all the Mets could reasonably expect to score off Scherzer, who would allow only three hits, one earned, and two walks while striking out nine over seven innings. It would be up to Logan Verrett to make that run hold up.
He didn’t. Verrett, who is taking Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation, allowed four hits, five earned, and five walks with three strike outs over 6.2 innings. All five of the players Verrett walked would come in to score. It was tough to see him pitch almost as tough as it was to see this offense hit tonight.
The Mets only mustered four hits and three walks on the night. To rub salt in the wound, Alejandro De Aza was the Mets best offensive player on the night going 2-2-3 with a walk.
On a night where Scherzer was dominant, Murphy was Murphy, and De Aza was the Mets best offensive player, it’s no wonder the Mets lost 6-1.
Matt Harvey having season ending surgery has put the Mets rotation in flux, and it could potentially lead towards the team deciding which one of their prospects should be added to the rotation. With Robert Gsellman only having made one AAA start and his being on the disabled list, there are only two prospects the Mets have to choose from – Gabriel Ynoa and Seth Lugo.
For many, the obvious choice is Ynoa. The 23 year old Ynoa has been regarded as one of the top prospects in the Mets minor league system. He has progressed rather quickly through the Mets minor league system which is all the more remarkable when you consider how conservative this front office tends to be with their prospects. In this his first full season in AAA, Ynoa was named a Pacific Coast League All Star. He is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in his first 17 starts. These are impressive numbers when you consider Ynoa pitches to contact and that he’s pitching in a hitter’s friendly league. Given his status as a Mets top prospect and the fact that he is pitching well in AAA, it seems like he would be the obvious choice to join the Mets rotation over a pitcher like Lugo.
The 26 year old Lugo was the Mets 2011 34th round selection out of Centenary College of Louisiana. That’s a Division III NCAA school. This season he lost his spot in the AAA rotation due to how poorly he had been pitching. Overall, Lugo has made 13 starts and six relief appearances going 3-4 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP. These are ugly numbers that were brought up time and again when the Mets first called him up to the majors to pitch out of the bullpen. However, in his first relief appearance, we quickly found out why we scout a pitcher for their repertoire instead of their stats when he struck out Anthony Rizzo with a filthy curveball:
As you can see, Lugo has a filthy curveball that can get fool even the best major league hitters. Lugo combines that pitch with a fastball in the mid 90s, a slider in the upper 80s, and a developing changeup. This is the repertoire Lugo used to pitch two scoreless innings against a Cubs team that has scored the most runs in the National League. This is the same repertoire Lugo was developing when he went 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP in five AAA starts last year. Overall, you can reasonably argue that Lugo’s fastball and curveball are two plus major league ready pitches. As we have seen with a number of Mets pitchers, time spent with Dan Warthen will only help him further develop that slider. Despite his early season struggles, he’s arguably more ready to succeed in the majors.
In fact, Lugo has had success in his limited work with the Mets this year. In the aforementioned game against the Cubs, Lugo pitched two scoreless innings allowing only two hits while striking out two. When he had to take the place of an injured Noah Syndergaard, Lugo responded with two scoreless and hitless innings against the Nationals. Lugo is clearly proving he can get big league hitters out, and that the Mets should consider him for a rotation spot.
Montero, on the other hand, struggled in his last start. He lasted only four innings allowing 10 hits, five earned, and one walk while striking out only two. In his last three starts, Ynoa has averaged 4.2 innings with a 9.42 ERA and a 2.163 WHIP. Ynoa has hit a bump, and he needs to remain in AAA to make the necessary adjustments.
Right now, Lugo is better equipped to get out major league hitters. He’s a better bet to succeed in the Mets rotation. Lugo should get his shot.
The only thing that matters about tonight’s game is the fact that Yoenis Cespedes left the game with a strained quad in the third and Noah Syndergaard left the game in the fifth with an apparent injury. It’s worth noting that Syndergaard’s last two fastballs were 93 and 91 MPH. He throws offspeed pitches faster than that.
These injuries came on the heels of Matt Harvey announcing he was electing to have season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome. With Cespedes and Syndergaard leaving the game, Harvey’s season being over, and tonight’s 3-1 loss to the Nationals, the Mets would suffer four losses tonight.
In the game tonight, Stephen Strasburg was awesome. He had a no-hitter going until Asdrubal Cabrera homered off of him in the fifth. Strasburg’s final line was seven innings, two hits, one earned, three walks, and nine strikeouts.
Strasburg was able to win because the Nationals’ Mets killers showed up again. Clint Robinson hit a two run homer in the second, and Daniel Murphy, of course, hit an RBI double in the third.
The Mets tried to muster a rally in the eighth beginning with a Wilmer Flores double off Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley. Jose Reyes followed with an infield single that Murphy stopped from going into the outfield while rolling over 2-3 times. It was first and third with no outs, and Reyes would just stay there. He stayed there while Oliver Perez got Curtis Granderson to pop out to short. He stayed there when Juan Lagares, who came in for the injured Cespedes, hit into the inning ending 4-6-3 double play. That double play ended the Mets best shot to tie the game.
If you want to take something positive from the day allowing you to smile like you’re Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo had another impressive performance. Lugo pitched two scoreless and hitless innings. Given Harvey’s injury and Syndergaard leaving tonight’s game, Lugo is making a case for himself to join the rotation.
Game Notes: The Mets announced Syndergaard left the game due to arm fatigue and not due to issues related to his bone spurs. That’s not all that comforting either.
Back in 2010 when Jacob deGrom was drafted out of Stetson University as a shortstop, you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the Mets organization that truly believed deGrom would not only be a future Rookie of the Year, but also one of the top pitchers in baseball. In fact, deGrom wasn’t even seen as such when he was first called-up to the Mets in 2014.
At that point in time, the Mets were in a year of transition, and they were at the point of trying to figure out who could be a part of the team in 2015 when the Mets were really intent on becoming contenders. One of the players called-up was obviously deGrom who was was 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.278 WHIP in seven starts in AAA. This was a marked improvement from the pitcher who was 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.467 WHIP in 14 starts in AAA the previous year. During said 2013 season, deGrom had made 10 starts in AA going 2-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.483 WHIP. Sure, there were reasons to expect he could eventually pitch in the majors. He was a four pitch pitcher that had a mid 90s fastball and a good slider.
When Dillon Gee went down with an injury, the 26 year old deGrom was called up to the majors to make a start in his stead. There was no timetable on how long deGrom was going to either stay in the majors or in the rotation. However, if push came to shove, the Mets were more inclined to move deGrom into the bullpen and let Rafael Montero stay in the rotation. At that point, Montero was seen as a much better and more polished prospect who had good command and was a groundball pitcher. What transpired was deGrom proved that his 2014 AAA season was no fluke. He went on to make 22 starts that season going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.140 WHIP en route to becoming the National League Rookie of the Year.
He had surpassed Montero who had not pitched as well in his opportunity and who dealt with some injuries thereby opening the door for deGrom to forever solidify not only his place in the rotation, but also the Mets plans.
Right now, the Mets have a pitcher in Matt Harvey who is injured, and that is going to open the door for a pitcher to get a chance to show that they are capable of being part of this Mets rotation. Much like in 2014, the prospects that are battling it out is a 26 year old in Seth Lugo who was never expected to be in this position and a 23 year old pitcher in Gabriel Ynoa who relies upon his control and groundballs to get outs. Much like in 2014, the Mets have deemed the younger pitcher to be the better prospect. In many ways, this could be the case of history repeating itself.
So far, Lugo has made one major league appearance. In that one relief appearance, he showed that he has the stuff to get hitters out at this level. Like deGrom, he has seemingly taken his game to the next level once he got called-up to the majors. Right now, the only thing that really separates him and deGrom is the fact that deGrom got his chance to establish himself in the major league rotation. Of course, it was easier for the Mets to give deGrom his shot in 2014 when the team was going nowhere. It’s a lot harder to justify such a decision when the team is in the thick of both the NL East and Wild Card races. And yet, with that in mind, the Mets should want to put the guys in the rotation that have the best chance to get batters out.
Arguably, that pitcher is Seth Lugo. He just needs to get the chance deGrom did to prove it.
On Opening Day 2015, Jenrry Mejia was unavailable due to an elbow injury. As a result, Terry Collins turned to Buddy Carlyle to close out the Mets 3-1 victory. Between Mejia’s elbow injury and his successive steroid suspensions, the Mets would need to turn to Jeurys Familia to become their closer. Familia wouldn’t get a chance to earn a save for about another week. In that April 12, 2015 game, Familia recorded two outs to earn his first save of the season. It would set him on a path where he has become the best closer in the game.
Since 2015, Familia has pitched 118.1 innings in 117 appearances. In those appearances, he has a 2.13 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 183 ERA+, and 72 saves. His 72 saves are second only to Mark Melancon in that time frame. However, unlike Melancon, Familia is more than a three out closer. Familia leads all closers in appearances, innings pitched, and multiple inning saves. Familia has done whatever his team has asked of him to help his team win. These are all part of what makes Familia a great closer. However, what is often overlooked is his durability. It’s his durability that truly makes him great.
We recently saw how important durability is with Wade Davis. Davis was as dominant a closer as there was in baseball. Mets fans need not look any further than the World Series for evidence of that. In the same time frame that Familia has been the Mets closer, Davis has had a 1.02 ERA and a 421 ERA+. That ERA+ is more than double that of Mariano Rivera‘s career mark of 205, which also happens to be the best in major league history. By any measure, Davis could be anointed the best closer in the game. However, he’s not in the conversation right now as he’s currently on the disabled list with a right forearm strain. As Mets fans have seen with Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, a forearm strain in your pitching arm can be an ominous sign.
As we see all the time in sports, one the most important abilities a player must have is availability. Familia has been available more than any other closer in the game, and he has pitched just as well if not better than all of them. This year he was finally recognized as such when he was named to his first All Star team. Given his durability and his ability to close out games, it will be the first of many.
This past week three Mets were named as National League All Stars – Yoenis Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia. Familia is the seventh Mets closer to ever be named as an All Star. Can you name the other six? Good luck!
The news that Matt Harvey may miss a significant amount of time due to the possibility that he may have thoracic outlet syndrom is devastating to not only Harvey himself, but also to the Mets rotation. While Harvey was struggling all year with a 4.86 ERA, he is also a pitcher who can rise up in big games. We have seen it time and time again with him whether it was him almost pitching a perfect game against the White Sox, being named the starter for the 2013 All Star Game, or his Game 5 of the World Series performance. He was an important part of the Mets, and if he has an extended absence, he is going to leave behind some pretty big shoes to fill.
As of right now, the Mets have not announced who will take Harvey’s spot in the rotation for Harvey’s next scheduled start. Fortunately, the Mets organization is fairly deep in major league capable starting pitching talent. Here is a list of the potential candidates:
Last year when the Mets were trying to manage Harvey’s innings, it was Verrett who temporarily took his place in the rotation. In Verrett’s four spot starts last year, he was a very respectable 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA. This included a brilliant performance Verrett had in Colorado limiting the Rockies to four hits and one earned run in eight innings. Unfortunately, Verrett has not had the same success as a spot starter this year. In his five spot starts, he is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA. Part of those struggles may be attributed to the fact that Verrett has not been fully stretched out like he was when he took the ball for the Mets last year. Accordingly, if Verrett was stretched out and able to pitch every fifth day, it would be reasonable to assume he could pitch as well as he did as a spot starter last year – perhaps even better.
Verrett was picked over Gilmartin for the last spot in the Opening Day bullpen, and as a result, the Mets sent down Gilmartin to be a member of their AAA starting rotation. Last year, we saw that Gilmartin knows how to get major league hitters out. In 50 appearances, he was 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, a 2.75 FIP, and a 143 ERA+. When he made multiple inning relief appearances last year, he was 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The only caution with Gilmartin is he has not been as successful this year as he was last year. In his 13 AAA starts, he is 9-3 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.336 WHIP. In his five major league relief appearances, Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP. However, it should be noted Gilmartin’s struggles started when he was being jerked back and forth between Las Vegas and the Mets, between relieving and starting. Before his first call-up, Gilmartin was 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. Overall, Gilmartin has shown he can get major league hitters out and pitch well as a starter.
When Harvey was put on the disabled list, the Mets called-up Lugo who dazzled in his two inning relief appearance. In that outing, Lugo used all five out his pitches to get a potent Cubs lineup out. He featured a 94 MPH fastball and a wicked curveball. He curveball was working so well he was able to get Anthony Rizzo to swing at a pitch that moved so much it would hit him on his back foot. He certainly has the tools to be an effective starter even if he hasn’t had the results in AAA this year. Given his repetoire and the ability to work with pitching coach Dan Warthen, the Mets just might have a pitcher who could blossom on the major league level similar to how Jacob deGrom did when he was called-up to the Mets in 2014.
If the Mets are going to turn to their prospects for a solution, Ynoa deserves some consideration as well. By any measure, the 23 year old Ynoa has been the Las Vegas 51s’ best starting pitcher. In a hitter friendly league, the Pacific Coast League All Star is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in 17 starts. The only questions with Ynoa is if the Mets believe he is ready to make the leap to the majors and whether his ability to enduce groundballs is a good fit for a Mets infield whose players have limited range.
If the Mets are inclined to take a risk with a Lugo or a Ynoa, they may be inclined to give Montero one last shot. However, as we have seen with Montero, it gets harder and harder to justify giving him another opportunity. When he was with the Mets this past year, he had an 11.57 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP in his two appearances thereby more than justifying Terry Collins‘ almost outright refusal to put him into a game. Down in AAA, Montero is 4-6 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.888 WHIP in 16 starts. This isn’t the same guy the Mets once thought had a bright future. Keep in mind, the Mets thought he had a future as far back as last year when he made the Opening Day roster as a member of the bullpen. Maybe just maybe giving this guy one last shot could wake him up, and it could bring out the best in him. It’s possible working closely with Dan Warthen may allow him to fulfill the promise he had when the Mets valued him as a prospect.
Overall, the Mets have many directions they could go. Each of the aforementioned starters could step-up and hold the fort until either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler is able to return from the disabled list to help lead the Mets back to the World Series. Ultimately, this is going to be an opportunity for one or more of these pitchers. It’s up to them to step up and stake a claim to a spot in the rotation. It’s up to them to make it hard for the Mets to remove them from the rotation much like deGrom did in 2014 when he won the Rookie of the Year Award. If one of these pitchers has a run like that, it would give the Mets six or seven terrific starters. That would be an amazing problem to have.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com