Musings
Matt Harvey having season ending surgery has put the Mets rotation in flux, and it could potentially lead towards the team deciding which one of their prospects should be added to the rotation. With Robert Gsellman only having made one AAA start and his being on the disabled list, there are only two prospects the Mets have to choose from – Gabriel Ynoa and Seth Lugo.
For many, the obvious choice is Ynoa. The 23 year old Ynoa has been regarded as one of the top prospects in the Mets minor league system. He has progressed rather quickly through the Mets minor league system which is all the more remarkable when you consider how conservative this front office tends to be with their prospects. In this his first full season in AAA, Ynoa was named a Pacific Coast League All Star. He is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in his first 17 starts. These are impressive numbers when you consider Ynoa pitches to contact and that he’s pitching in a hitter’s friendly league. Given his status as a Mets top prospect and the fact that he is pitching well in AAA, it seems like he would be the obvious choice to join the Mets rotation over a pitcher like Lugo.
The 26 year old Lugo was the Mets 2011 34th round selection out of Centenary College of Louisiana. That’s a Division III NCAA school. This season he lost his spot in the AAA rotation due to how poorly he had been pitching. Overall, Lugo has made 13 starts and six relief appearances going 3-4 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP. These are ugly numbers that were brought up time and again when the Mets first called him up to the majors to pitch out of the bullpen. However, in his first relief appearance, we quickly found out why we scout a pitcher for their repertoire instead of their stats when he struck out Anthony Rizzo with a filthy curveball:
As you can see, Lugo has a filthy curveball that can get fool even the best major league hitters. Lugo combines that pitch with a fastball in the mid 90s, a slider in the upper 80s, and a developing changeup. This is the repertoire Lugo used to pitch two scoreless innings against a Cubs team that has scored the most runs in the National League. This is the same repertoire Lugo was developing when he went 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP in five AAA starts last year. Overall, you can reasonably argue that Lugo’s fastball and curveball are two plus major league ready pitches. As we have seen with a number of Mets pitchers, time spent with Dan Warthen will only help him further develop that slider. Despite his early season struggles, he’s arguably more ready to succeed in the majors.
In fact, Lugo has had success in his limited work with the Mets this year. In the aforementioned game against the Cubs, Lugo pitched two scoreless innings allowing only two hits while striking out two. When he had to take the place of an injured Noah Syndergaard, Lugo responded with two scoreless and hitless innings against the Nationals. Lugo is clearly proving he can get big league hitters out, and that the Mets should consider him for a rotation spot.
Montero, on the other hand, struggled in his last start. He lasted only four innings allowing 10 hits, five earned, and one walk while striking out only two. In his last three starts, Ynoa has averaged 4.2 innings with a 9.42 ERA and a 2.163 WHIP. Ynoa has hit a bump, and he needs to remain in AAA to make the necessary adjustments.
Right now, Lugo is better equipped to get out major league hitters. He’s a better bet to succeed in the Mets rotation. Lugo should get his shot.
Back in 2010 when Jacob deGrom was drafted out of Stetson University as a shortstop, you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the Mets organization that truly believed deGrom would not only be a future Rookie of the Year, but also one of the top pitchers in baseball. In fact, deGrom wasn’t even seen as such when he was first called-up to the Mets in 2014.
At that point in time, the Mets were in a year of transition, and they were at the point of trying to figure out who could be a part of the team in 2015 when the Mets were really intent on becoming contenders. One of the players called-up was obviously deGrom who was was 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.278 WHIP in seven starts in AAA. This was a marked improvement from the pitcher who was 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.467 WHIP in 14 starts in AAA the previous year. During said 2013 season, deGrom had made 10 starts in AA going 2-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.483 WHIP. Sure, there were reasons to expect he could eventually pitch in the majors. He was a four pitch pitcher that had a mid 90s fastball and a good slider.
When Dillon Gee went down with an injury, the 26 year old deGrom was called up to the majors to make a start in his stead. There was no timetable on how long deGrom was going to either stay in the majors or in the rotation. However, if push came to shove, the Mets were more inclined to move deGrom into the bullpen and let Rafael Montero stay in the rotation. At that point, Montero was seen as a much better and more polished prospect who had good command and was a groundball pitcher. What transpired was deGrom proved that his 2014 AAA season was no fluke. He went on to make 22 starts that season going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.140 WHIP en route to becoming the National League Rookie of the Year.
He had surpassed Montero who had not pitched as well in his opportunity and who dealt with some injuries thereby opening the door for deGrom to forever solidify not only his place in the rotation, but also the Mets plans.
Right now, the Mets have a pitcher in Matt Harvey who is injured, and that is going to open the door for a pitcher to get a chance to show that they are capable of being part of this Mets rotation. Much like in 2014, the prospects that are battling it out is a 26 year old in Seth Lugo who was never expected to be in this position and a 23 year old pitcher in Gabriel Ynoa who relies upon his control and groundballs to get outs. Much like in 2014, the Mets have deemed the younger pitcher to be the better prospect. In many ways, this could be the case of history repeating itself.
So far, Lugo has made one major league appearance. In that one relief appearance, he showed that he has the stuff to get hitters out at this level. Like deGrom, he has seemingly taken his game to the next level once he got called-up to the majors. Right now, the only thing that really separates him and deGrom is the fact that deGrom got his chance to establish himself in the major league rotation. Of course, it was easier for the Mets to give deGrom his shot in 2014 when the team was going nowhere. It’s a lot harder to justify such a decision when the team is in the thick of both the NL East and Wild Card races. And yet, with that in mind, the Mets should want to put the guys in the rotation that have the best chance to get batters out.
Arguably, that pitcher is Seth Lugo. He just needs to get the chance deGrom did to prove it.
On Opening Day 2015, Jenrry Mejia was unavailable due to an elbow injury. As a result, Terry Collins turned to Buddy Carlyle to close out the Mets 3-1 victory. Between Mejia’s elbow injury and his successive steroid suspensions, the Mets would need to turn to Jeurys Familia to become their closer. Familia wouldn’t get a chance to earn a save for about another week. In that April 12, 2015 game, Familia recorded two outs to earn his first save of the season. It would set him on a path where he has become the best closer in the game.
Since 2015, Familia has pitched 118.1 innings in 117 appearances. In those appearances, he has a 2.13 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 183 ERA+, and 72 saves. His 72 saves are second only to Mark Melancon in that time frame. However, unlike Melancon, Familia is more than a three out closer. Familia leads all closers in appearances, innings pitched, and multiple inning saves. Familia has done whatever his team has asked of him to help his team win. These are all part of what makes Familia a great closer. However, what is often overlooked is his durability. It’s his durability that truly makes him great.
We recently saw how important durability is with Wade Davis. Davis was as dominant a closer as there was in baseball. Mets fans need not look any further than the World Series for evidence of that. In the same time frame that Familia has been the Mets closer, Davis has had a 1.02 ERA and a 421 ERA+. That ERA+ is more than double that of Mariano Rivera‘s career mark of 205, which also happens to be the best in major league history. By any measure, Davis could be anointed the best closer in the game. However, he’s not in the conversation right now as he’s currently on the disabled list with a right forearm strain. As Mets fans have seen with Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, a forearm strain in your pitching arm can be an ominous sign.
As we see all the time in sports, one the most important abilities a player must have is availability. Familia has been available more than any other closer in the game, and he has pitched just as well if not better than all of them. This year he was finally recognized as such when he was named to his first All Star team. Given his durability and his ability to close out games, it will be the first of many.
This past week three Mets were named as National League All Stars – Yoenis Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia. Familia is the seventh Mets closer to ever be named as an All Star. Can you name the other six? Good luck!
The news that Matt Harvey may miss a significant amount of time due to the possibility that he may have thoracic outlet syndrom is devastating to not only Harvey himself, but also to the Mets rotation. While Harvey was struggling all year with a 4.86 ERA, he is also a pitcher who can rise up in big games. We have seen it time and time again with him whether it was him almost pitching a perfect game against the White Sox, being named the starter for the 2013 All Star Game, or his Game 5 of the World Series performance. He was an important part of the Mets, and if he has an extended absence, he is going to leave behind some pretty big shoes to fill.
As of right now, the Mets have not announced who will take Harvey’s spot in the rotation for Harvey’s next scheduled start. Fortunately, the Mets organization is fairly deep in major league capable starting pitching talent. Here is a list of the potential candidates:
Last year when the Mets were trying to manage Harvey’s innings, it was Verrett who temporarily took his place in the rotation. In Verrett’s four spot starts last year, he was a very respectable 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA. This included a brilliant performance Verrett had in Colorado limiting the Rockies to four hits and one earned run in eight innings. Unfortunately, Verrett has not had the same success as a spot starter this year. In his five spot starts, he is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA. Part of those struggles may be attributed to the fact that Verrett has not been fully stretched out like he was when he took the ball for the Mets last year. Accordingly, if Verrett was stretched out and able to pitch every fifth day, it would be reasonable to assume he could pitch as well as he did as a spot starter last year – perhaps even better.
Verrett was picked over Gilmartin for the last spot in the Opening Day bullpen, and as a result, the Mets sent down Gilmartin to be a member of their AAA starting rotation. Last year, we saw that Gilmartin knows how to get major league hitters out. In 50 appearances, he was 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, a 2.75 FIP, and a 143 ERA+. When he made multiple inning relief appearances last year, he was 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The only caution with Gilmartin is he has not been as successful this year as he was last year. In his 13 AAA starts, he is 9-3 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.336 WHIP. In his five major league relief appearances, Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP. However, it should be noted Gilmartin’s struggles started when he was being jerked back and forth between Las Vegas and the Mets, between relieving and starting. Before his first call-up, Gilmartin was 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. Overall, Gilmartin has shown he can get major league hitters out and pitch well as a starter.
When Harvey was put on the disabled list, the Mets called-up Lugo who dazzled in his two inning relief appearance. In that outing, Lugo used all five out his pitches to get a potent Cubs lineup out. He featured a 94 MPH fastball and a wicked curveball. He curveball was working so well he was able to get Anthony Rizzo to swing at a pitch that moved so much it would hit him on his back foot. He certainly has the tools to be an effective starter even if he hasn’t had the results in AAA this year. Given his repetoire and the ability to work with pitching coach Dan Warthen, the Mets just might have a pitcher who could blossom on the major league level similar to how Jacob deGrom did when he was called-up to the Mets in 2014.
If the Mets are going to turn to their prospects for a solution, Ynoa deserves some consideration as well. By any measure, the 23 year old Ynoa has been the Las Vegas 51s’ best starting pitcher. In a hitter friendly league, the Pacific Coast League All Star is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in 17 starts. The only questions with Ynoa is if the Mets believe he is ready to make the leap to the majors and whether his ability to enduce groundballs is a good fit for a Mets infield whose players have limited range.
If the Mets are inclined to take a risk with a Lugo or a Ynoa, they may be inclined to give Montero one last shot. However, as we have seen with Montero, it gets harder and harder to justify giving him another opportunity. When he was with the Mets this past year, he had an 11.57 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP in his two appearances thereby more than justifying Terry Collins‘ almost outright refusal to put him into a game. Down in AAA, Montero is 4-6 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.888 WHIP in 16 starts. This isn’t the same guy the Mets once thought had a bright future. Keep in mind, the Mets thought he had a future as far back as last year when he made the Opening Day roster as a member of the bullpen. Maybe just maybe giving this guy one last shot could wake him up, and it could bring out the best in him. It’s possible working closely with Dan Warthen may allow him to fulfill the promise he had when the Mets valued him as a prospect.
Overall, the Mets have many directions they could go. Each of the aforementioned starters could step-up and hold the fort until either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler is able to return from the disabled list to help lead the Mets back to the World Series. Ultimately, this is going to be an opportunity for one or more of these pitchers. It’s up to them to step up and stake a claim to a spot in the rotation. It’s up to them to make it hard for the Mets to remove them from the rotation much like deGrom did in 2014 when he won the Rookie of the Year Award. If one of these pitchers has a run like that, it would give the Mets six or seven terrific starters. That would be an amazing problem to have.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
Steven Matz has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, and the Mets talked him out if having inseason surgery to remove them. Noah Syndergaard also has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, but it appears like it’s nowhere near as serious as Matz’s. Zack Wheeler has had a number of setbacks in his Tommy John rehab, and the best case scenario has him returning to the Mets mid to late August. Now, worst of all, Matt Harvey may have thoracic outlet syndrome.
Anyone one of these pitchers may miss an extended period of time, and the Mets replacements are less than inspiring.
First up as always is spot starter Logan Verrett who has a 5.32 ERA in his five starts this year. Sean Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA in his limited appearances with the Mets this year. Seth Lugo had an electrifying one inning appearance before bring sent back down to AAA where he has a 6.55 ERA. Rafael Montero hasn’t been much better with his 6.31 AAA ERA and his 11.57 major league ERA. Finally, there’s 23 year old Gabriel Ynoa who may not be ready for the majors.
For a team that is built on pitching, these are not viable options. These pitchers are not carrying these Mets back to the World Series like the pitching did in 2015.
No, the Mets need a pitcher like Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has made 13 starts this year going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP. He’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH Warthen slider. If he was in the Mets rotation right now, he would arguably be the best pitcher in their rotation. At the very least, he’s top three. There’s one problem.
Fulmer’s a Tiger. Fulmer was one of 12 pitchers the Mets have traded away since the 2015 offseason. Make no mistake. Fulmer was the best of the lot.
Many have justified his departure as he was traded away to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would go off in August and September with an offensive display Mets fans haven’t seen since Mike Piazza was leading the Mets to back-to-back postseason appearances. The Mets would fall just short of the ultimate goal as they lost the World Series in five games.
Arguably, the Mets needed Cespedes to reach that point. However, in acquiring him, the Mets gave up Fulmer’s entire career. They gave up the very player they may need this year just to get back to the World Series. The Mets may have sacrificed their chances in 2016 and beyond for the run they made last year.
The reason is because pitching is fragile. No matter how good you think you have it there’s a bone spur, a torn collateral ligament, or a shoulder condition that can take an ace pitcher away. It’s why an organization needs as much high end pitching depth as it can get their hands on. Yesterday’s surplus becomes today’s necessity.
Fulmer was seen as surplus last year, and he was moved for Cespedes. With Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and Matz’s medical issues, he’s now a necessity that is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
In 2004, the Mets called up David Wright to play alongside Jose Reyes. At that moment, everyone imagined the pair winning World Series titles, having their numbers retired, and joining one another again in Cooperstown. As it would turn it, they couldn’t spend their careers playing alongside one another. With the Mets financial troubles, the Mets had to choose between the two.
Reyes had been in the Mets organization since he signed as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic. During his tenure with the Mets, he was the team’s sparkplug. He energized the players on the field, and he energized the fans in the stands. He was the team’s single season and all-time leader in stolen bases. He was the all-time leader in triples. His speed on the basepaths was only matched by the speed in which he threw the ball. He was the greatest shortstop in Mets history.
He also played alongside the greatest third baseman in Mets history. Wright was the lifelong Mets fan who was the MVP type talent. He was a Gold Glove third baseman and a 30/30 man. He was the player the Mets seemed to be grooming to become the face of the franchise. In many ways, Wright was the chosen one. It should come as no surprise that with Reyes’ free agency in 2011, the Mets picked Wright over Reyes.
From that point forward, it was a difficult road for both.
Reyes initially signed with the Marlins only to be traded away one season later to the Blue Jays. During his time on the unforgiving turf of the Rogers Centre, Reyes would not only suffer injuries, but he would also lose a step or two. For the first two years, the Blue Jays underachieved. They were unable to make a real push for the postseason. When they were finally able to do so in 2015, the Blue Jays traded him away for Troy Tulowitzki. Reyes was with the Rockies for a last place club. In that offseason, he would be charged with domestic violence. Heading into this season, he would be suspended for 51 games and released by the Rockies.
Wright had his own problems when he was apart from Reyes. He had troubles with Citi Field like most of the Mets hitters did under the original constructs of the outfield walls. Since the Mets moved to Citi Field, Wright seemingly alternated between healthy and injury prone seasons. He alternated between an All Star caliber player and an average third baseman. All the while, the Mets were a sub-.500 team that were going nowhere fast. It was discovered in 2015 that Wright suffered spinal stenosis. He would return to be able to play in the World Series and be the Mets 2016 Opening Day third baseman, but he was no longer the same player. This year, Wright’s body would break down yet again with him requiring a discectomy and cervical fusion. He was all but gone for the season. The Mets were left in a lurch as they needed a third baseman.
With the Mets in need of a third baseman and Reyes in need of a job, the two came together to give Reyes a chance at redemption. In order to make room for Reyes on the 40 man roster, the Mets moved Wright to the 60 day disabled list. Wright and Reyes still aren’t united as both will not take the field aside one another like we all assumed they would do in 2004. Amazingly, Reyes has become Wright’s replacement not just at third base, but also on the roster as Wright was placed on the 60 day disabled list to make room for Reyes.
This was the second time the Mets had to sacrifice one to make room for the other. It was never supposed to be this way. They were supposed to be on the same team for their entire careers. They were supposed to be side-by-side from 2004 until their induction in Cooperstown. It hasn’t worked out that way. In fact, they may never play alongside each other ever again.
There’s a box laying in an empty Mets clubhouse. An unsuspecting Travis d’Arnaud is standing over the box accompanied by Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes. There was an ominous tone to the meeting as Reyes had already committed most of the seven deadly sins prior to this tension filled moment:
Gluttony – in 2010, it was discovered that Reyes suffered from thyroid problems which many attributed to either diet or drug use.
Greed – He bolted the Mets after signing a six year $106 million contract with the Marlins as soon as free agency began.
Sloth – In his last game with the Mets, Reyes bunted for a single and exited the game ensuring he would win the batting title.
Lust – After being traded last year, Reyes openly talked about how desperately he wanted to once again be a member of the New York Mets despite his being a member of the Colorado Rockies.
Pride – In 2007, Reyes set out to get the Mets all time stolen base record even though his sliding headfirst each and every time was taken a toll on his hands and was noted as a factor in his second half decline.
Wrath – Reyes was charge with beating his wife in their hotel room in Hawaii.
The last sin is what brings us here today. If not for that last sin, Reyes isn’t released from the Rockies. He wouldn’t have found himself back with the Mets organization. He certainly wouldn’t have found himself standing in the Mets clubhouse. Now, there is just one thing he wants, but he can’t have it because it because it belongs to another. This is the point we’re at when d’Arnaud is standing over that box in the clubhouse. He bends down, and he opens it up horrified.
It’s an entire box of Mets jerseys with the number 7. All of these jerseys with the number 7 – home, away, blue alternates, and even the 1986 racing stripe jerseys. They all have the number 7. However, now, these jerseys no longer bear d’Arnaud’s name on the back. No. These jerseys now have Reyes’ name on the back. Reyes took his number back; the number he Envied.
In many ways it is fitting that James Loney was assigned the number 28 by the Mets. Loney is a left-handed contact hitter that has been pressed into action at first base by the Mets due to an injury. Throughout their careers, Loney and Daniel Murphy have been very similar hitters.
Coming into this season, Loney was a career .285/.338/.411 hitter who averaged 25 doubles and 10 homeruns. Murphy was a career .288/.331/.424 hitter who averaged 33 doubles and nine homeruns. The similarities do not end at the statistics. If you look at their stances and the approach at the plate, Loney and Murphy are very similar hitters. Here is a James Loney 2014 at bat:
As you can see, Loney stands fairly upright in his stance with his hands held high. Loney stands a little off the plate with a somewhat open stance. Here is a 2013 Daniel Murphy at bat:
Again, Murphy is fairly upright at the plate with his hands held high. He’s a little off the plate with a slightly open stance. Loney’s and Murphy’s stances are not identical, but they are very similar. Unsurprisingly, both had similar approaches at the plate. Both pulled inside pitches with some authority, but they would go the other way with outside pitches just hoping they would find a place to land.
Last year, Murphy linked up with Kevin Long, who has a reputation for unlocking player’s hidden power. Here is a look at Murphy’s updated stance from the 2015 postseason:
Murphy’s stance is now closed, and he’s in more of a crouch at the plate. The results have been terrific as Murphy has been hitting for more power. This year Murphy has been hitting .351/.394/.588 with 20 doubles and 14 home runs. The 14 home runs tie Murphy’s career high, and there is still more than half a season to play.
Kevin Long has now made similar adjustments to Loney’s stance. Here is one of his at bats from his short tenure with the Mets:
Now, the crouch in Loney’s stance is not as pronounced as Murphy’s. However, a crouch is still present, and Loney has closed his stance. From the looks of it, it appears that Kevin Long has applied to same principles he used with Daniel Murphy last year. So far, Loney appears to be hitting the ball with more authority when he makes contact.
The result is Loney hitting .297/.345/.495 with eight doubles and four homers. He hasn’t had a slugging percentage anywhere near this high since 2007.
Long has unlocked the power in Loney’s swing like he did with Murphy last year makes Loney is the perfect stopgap for Lucas Duda. If he keeps it up, the Mets are going to have to keep him on the roster and play him somewhere.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
After getting swept by the Nationals, the Mets feel six games back in the National League East. The offense has been completely inept averaging 3.2 runs per game. The Mets went 11-15 over the course of the month despite playing only eight games against teams with a winning record. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs in their elbows. These days you’d be hard pressed to find a Mets fan that has any hope that the Mets could return to the postseason.
Lost in all of this is the fact that the Mets are only a half a game back in the Wild Card Standings.
Even if you assume the National League East is out of reach (it isn’t), the Mets are in the thick of a pennant race. Better yet, they are going up against the Dodgers, Marlins, and Cardinals. In order to make the postseason, the Mets need only beat out two of those teams. Each of the three teams the Mets are competing with are flawed teams with real problems.
St. Louis Cardinals
Outside of Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals rotation is struggling. Their other four starters have ERAs 4.09 and above, and ERA+s of 1o1 and below. To be at the point they are, they have had to rely on what has been a pretty good bullpen. With that said, their closer, Trevor Rosenthal, is having a horrible season with a 5.19 ERA.
Offensively, the team has a black hole in center field. It has come to the point where they are trying Kolten Wong out there. This is the same Wong the Cardinals had sent down for his inability to produce at second base. The Cardinals were able to move Wong to center because Jhonny Peralta finally came off the disabled list. Peralta is now the third baseman, but he is not hitting after returning from the disabled list.
On top of all of these problems, the Cardinals finish the season with 10 of their final 20 games against the Cubs and the Giants.
Miami Marlins
Barry Bonds has certainly had an impact on this team as seemingly not named Giancarlo Stanton is having a good season offensively. Stanton’s production is troublesome for the Marlins as he is not the same player for the Marlins a year after wrist surgery. Fact is, the Marlins need him as their starting pitching hasn’t been very good outside of Jose Fernandez.
The Marlins really don’t have a viable fifth starter. In reality, they don’t have much of a rotation past Fernandez. Adam Conley is their second best starter, and he is 4-5 with a 1.357 WHIP. The other rotation options have ERAs of 4.45 and above. With a rotation like that, it should come as no surprise that the Marlins are performing above expectations as they have both allowed and scored 326 runs. If the rotation continues to drag down this offense, we can reasonably expect this Marlins team to trek back towards the .500 mark.
In the event they are able to hang in the race, the Marlins are going to have to earn their way into the postseason with nine of their last 13 games coming against the Mets and the Nationals.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are currently leading the Wild Card race with a 43-37 record. That record is mostly driven by the greatness of Clayton Kershaw.
This season Kershaw is 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.727 WHIP. Name the pitching catergory, and you can rest assured that Kershaw is probably leading it. In games that Kershaw pitches, the Dodgers are 14-2 in games that Kershaw starts. If you removed Kershaw from the Dodgers rotation, the Dodgers would be 29-35 this year. That is not a team that would be in the thick of the Wild Card race let alone leading it.
Normally, that type of analysis is done to show why a pitcher like Kershaw should win the Cy Young and/or MVP awards. It is not done as an example to show why his team will not make the postseason. Yet, that’s the position the Dodgers are facing. Kershaw has been having back problems recently. He has received an epidural injection, and he is on the 15 day disabled list. As Mets fans have seen over the past few seasons, back injuries are funny things. Once it starts acting up, you do not really know when a player can returns.
With that in mind, we really don’t have an answer to the Cardinals, Marlins, or Dodgers question marks. As Mets fans, we become myopic in how we assess the Mets chances of making it back to the postseason. Day in and day out, we see the Mets put out a poor offense and begin to believe the Mets aren’t going anywhere. However, when you take a step back and look out over the National League landscape, the Mets are competing against other flawed teams for those two Wild Card spots.
Overall, despite the Mets recent struggles, this can still be a postseason team. As we saw last year, with the Mets pitching, the team just has to get there. Seeing the competition, they very well can.