Musings
Over the course of the season, Noah Syndergaard has averaged 98 MPH with his fastball. Many times a game, he will throw that fastball in excess of 100 MPH. However in his last start before the All Star break, Syndergaard’s fastball velocity dropped precipitously to 91 MPH. Given the fact that he has already been labeled a risk for Tommy John surgery and the fact that he has bone chips in his elbow, many feared the worst.
Fortunately for Syndergaard and the Mets, it was not the worst case scenario. Instead, Syndergaard has a dead arm which he attributes to the heavy workload he has received in the first half of the season. The best way to handle a dead arm is to give the pitcher an opportunity to rest their arm so they can get regain their velocity. For the time being, Syndergaard says, “I am just picking up a ball and playing light toss, nothing too crazy. I am taking it day by day and see how it goes.” (New York Daily News).
While Syndergaard is seeing how it goes, Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon will start the first two games out of the All Star Break. Syndergaard and the Mets will reassess how to proceed until after he throws a bullpen session on Friday. It is anticipated this bullpen session will be an abbreviated one as Syndergaard said, “I am at the point of the season where I don’t need to be throwing 30-35 pitch bullpens anymore. I am going to taper it back to 15-20, if that.”
This is part of a concerted effort for Syndergaard to be as fresh as possible as he can be for the rest of the season and to avoid succumbing to another dead arm. With that in mind, Syndergaard said, “I am going to take a step back, look at my routine every five days and take a play out of Bartolo’s playbook. He doesn’t throw bullpens, he takes it really light on his arm and every fifth day he is fresh as can be.”
For his part, Syndergaard believes this time off has been beneficial, and he believes he will be ready to pitch when called upon after the All Star Break saying, “I will be back to 100% once this break is over.” If that is the case, Syndergaard will be able to continue his outstanding season that has seen him go 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.079 WHIP.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
With homefield advantage on the line and the Mets in playoff position, Terry Collins managed the All Star Game like seemingly every other manager has previously managed the All Star Game. He put more of a premium on getting all the players in the game than winning the game. Well, everyone except his own players Jeurys Familia and Bartolo Colon. Other than the Mets players apparently being upset at this, it is hard to criticize Collins for how he managed the All Star Game. Still, there are many managerial decisions Collins has made in the first half of the season that invite scrutiny.
First and foremost, there is the way he handled Michael Conforto. First, he didn’t let him get any time playing right field in Spring Training. The end result of that was Collins putting Juan Lagares in right and Yoenis Cespedes in center on days that Curtis Granderson was given the day off. There really is no excuse for putting Lagares, possibly the defensive center fielder in the game, anywhere but center.
The other mistake is not letting Conforto hit against lefties until Madison Bumgarner took the mound. Collins was hampering his development by doing that. At the end of the day, this is the Mets best position player prospect, and in many ways, he was the second best hitter on the team. Collins was willing to sacrifice all that to get Lagares’ bat in the lineup instead of sitting an older Granderson who had the very platoon splits that worried Collins. By the way, Granderson is also 35 years old and could use the occasional day or two off. Conforto’s season began to fall apart, and he needed to be sent down to AAA. By the way, Collins is making the same mistake with Brandon Nimmo. However, it’s even worse with Nimmo as he’s doing it to get Alejandro De Aza‘s bat in the lineup.
While on the topic of developing players, Kevin Plawecki has faltered for yet another season under Collins’ tutelage. Last year, there were a number of excuses why Plawecki didn’t succeed from his being rushed to the majors to his sinus issues. This year, he had no such excuses, and he still didn’t produce. While Plawecki deserves a large amount of the blame, Collins certainly deserves some of it, especially when his position with Conforto is that he is not here to help players develop as major leaguers when the Mets have a win-now team.
Another major issue this year was Collins’ handing of Jim Henderson. Henderson was a feel good story that turned into a potential nightmare. The day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches, which is puzzling in its own right, Collins used Henderson to pitch in the very next game. He did it despite knowing that Henderson needed to be handled lightly due to his having two shoulder surgeries. He did it even after watching what happened with Johan Santana. Collins knew all of this, and yet he used Henderson in that spot as he said an April 13th game, the eighth game of the season, was deemed to be a must win game. Henderson’s production fell off after that, and now he is on the disabled list.
There was also his handling of Noah Syndergaard. Last year, the Mets wanted to initiate a six man rotation to alleviate some of the early innings Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom pitched early in the season. The idea was to both keep them healthy and keep them fresh for the length of the season. To be fair, Collins use of Syndergaard in any one particular start has not been egregious. However, it was curious how he shoehorned Syndergaard into a relief appearance after Syndergaard was ejected throwing at Chase Utley. The Mets had an opportunity to rest their ace until his next start. Instead, Syndergaard got the adrenaline going and was ramped up in a relief appearance on his throw day. By the way, in Syndergaard’s last start his fastball velocity dropped to 91 MPH, and he left the game with a dead arm.
Speaking of how he is handling pitching, it is amazing that Collins took part in talking Steven Matz out of opting for season ending surgery to address the bone spurs in his elbow that has clearly hampered his pitching. Not only was Collins willing to risk Matz suffering a more severe injury, he’s also willing to put a limited pitcher on the mound every fifth day. Keep in mind that since the bone spurs became an issue, Matz has been 0-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.430 WHIP. His slider usage has dropped from 13% to 3% of the time. It’s always troubling when a manager doesn’t protect his players. It’s even worse when he doesn’t protect the young injured ones.
There is also the curious drop in production this team has had since May 1st. Here’s how some of the Mets best hitters have fared since that point:
| April | Since | |
| Curtis Granderson | .241/.347/.471 | .238/.335/.453 |
| Neil Walker | .307/.337/.625 | .232/.318/.345 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | .300/.364/.400 | .249/.305/.435 |
| Michael Conforto | .365/.442/.676 | .148/.217/.303 |
Now, there are many factors to this including some of these players getting nicked up a bit. There’s something to be sad for the natural ebbs and flows of a season as well. There should be some note about the injuries to the players surrounding them. However, with all that said, these players have had a significant drop off in production under Collins’ watch. Whether it was helping them make adjustments and finding days for them to get the rest they needed, Collins didn’t do that as their manager.
There have been other issues dealing with Collins in-game management that could be highlighted as well. To be fair and balanced, it should be pointed out that Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, Matt Reynolds, and Rene Rivera have played far more games than the Mets ever wanted or expected them to play. It’s hard to expect a manager to win under those circumstances. It should also be noted that there were significant injuries to David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey which have further weakened the Mets.
Through all of that, Collins still has the Mets in a position to make the postseason. If he makes better decisions, and the Mets begin playing better, they should be in the postseason, and with that pitching staff, they still have a legitimate chance to return to the World Series.
With the Nationals starting a left-handed pitcher in Gio Gonzalez, Terry Collins was going to start Juan Lagares no matter what. On the one hand, Collins will tell you he wants Lagares’ bat in the lineup against lefties. In reality, Collins just doesn’t trust young left-handed hitters against left-handed pitching.
With that in mind, when Collins filled out the lineup card yesterday, he had Lagares in center, Curtis Granderson in right, and Alejandro De Aza in left. Collins started De Aza despite the fact that De Aza entered the game hitting .181/.252/.276. He started De Aza despite the fact that De Aza is a career .235/.299/.350 hitter against lefties. Looking at these numbers and just how poorly De Aza has played this entire year, Collins decided to start De Aza. In a shock to no one, De Aza was 0-3 on the day in a game that the Mets lost 3-2. There is really no justification for this decision other than the unsupported notion that Nimmo can not hit lefties.
Before his call-up, Nimmo was hitting .338/.338/.500 in 74 at bats against lefties. Given these stats, it’s fair to assume that Nimmo would be a better bet to hit a lefty than De Aza would. However, Collins isn’t willing to give him the chance. He would rather hamper a player’s development and stick with a veteran who has already proved he cannot do the job. It’s the same thing Collins did last year with Michael Cuddyer and Michael Conforto.
Last year, Cuddyer was just a shell of himself. He needed core muscle surgery. He had a knee injury that plagued him all year. Through all of it, Cuddyer hit just .259/.309/.391. It was a far cry from the career .277/.344/.461 career hitter he was. Despite Cuddyer showing he no longer could play up to the level he once could, Collins decided it was better to play him against lefties than it was to play the rookie Conforto who was hitting well in the majors. Collins made this decision despite the fact that Conforto was hitting .333/.414/.490 against lefties in AA. Still, for whatever reason Collins could conjure, he determined that Conforto was not able to hit lefties at the major league level. The idea got so stuck in his head that Collins followed the same plan coming into this season.
Then suddenly it happened. Conforto was no longer able to hit left-handed pitching he had not seen in quite a while. In 2016, Conforto hit .091/.128/.091 in his 44 at bats against lefties this season. This would then become part of a greater overall issue where Conforto stopped hitting all together. The seminal moment was the time Collins actually let Conforto hit against a lefty. In true Collins’ fashion, the lefty he chose was Madison Bumgarner. Conforto would go 0-5 on the day. He then went into a prolonged slump that saw him hit .148/.217/.303 over his next 44 games. In that span, Conforto went from hitting .365/.442/.676 on the season to hitting .222/.296/.431. The Mets were all but forced to send him down to the minors and call-up the left-hand hitting Nimmo.
Sure enough, Collins is repeating the same mistakes with Nimmo as he did with Conforto. Last year, it was to get Cuddyer at bats. This year, it is to get De Aza at bats. It didn’t make sense then, and it makes less sense now.
The most famed double play trio in Major League history was Joe Tinker, Johnny Evers, and Frank Chance. They were so renown that Franklin Pierce Adams would script a poem about them dubbed Baseball’s Sad Lexicon:
These are the three saddest possible words:
“Tinker to Evers to Chance.”
Trio of bears cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double –
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
“Tinker to Evers to Chance.”
As we all saw in the Future’s Game, the Mets are developing their own trio of young stars that people will wax poetic about for years to come.
For the first time ever, Amed Rosario, Dilson Herrera, and Dominic Smith took the field at the very same time. These are the very same three players that the Mets envision to be their own version of Tinker to Evers to Chance. It was easy to believe this is the future when Mets fans got to see the Future’s Game to watch Rosario make plays like this:
Great play ? @Amed_Rosario of the world team #FuturesGame Can't wait to see him with @Mets #DontBeSurprisedBeReady pic.twitter.com/3BJlYvDtkt
— MVVM Wear (@MvvmWear) July 11, 2016
This of course followed Herrera and Rosario helping the World Team put up a crooked number in the top of the ninth. Herrera hit an RBI single to put the World team ahead 5-3, and Rosario followed him with a single to load the bases. Both would eventually come home to score Seeing Herrera and Rosario get back to back base hits and score runs is something Mets fans will start seeing in the very near future.
Smith did his part to help USA win the game. He was one of the few players on the day that would play the entire game. As anticipated, he played a good defensive first base. He also had an RBI, which at the time had put USA up 2-0.
Overall, we saw each future Mets player contribute and help their teams try to win the game. Within the next few years, they will all take the field at the same time at Citi Field. Given their offensive capabilities, they will help their pitching staff get a lead in a game. Given their defense they will be able to turn a double play or two in the game. There will be excitement amongst the fans at Citi Field while the opposition and their fans will feel dejected as the Mets double play combination will give them “nothing but trouble.” Everyone else will shudder at the words:
Rosario to Herrera to Smith
On a field in Binghamton, New York the shortstop of the Mets’ past played alongside the Mets’ shortstop of the future. As it turns out, it was the the old shortstop, Jose Reyes, who came away impressed by the minor leaguer Amed Rosario saying, “Wow! He’s 20 years old and he looks like a veteran.” (New York Post). This is but one of the many accolades that have been bestowed upon Rosario in his young career.
The latest accolade to be bestowed upon Rosario was him being named the MLB Future’s Game. Earlier in the month it was being named to Baseball America’s All-Prospect Team for June. Somewhat surprisingly, Rosario was named to the team for his bat as he hit .381/.423/.536 with nine doubles and three triples in his time between St. Lucie and Binghamton. Rosario put up these impressive stats while continuing to play the terrific defense that was a major factor in the reason why the Mets signed the 16 year old Rosario out of the Dominican Republic in 2012.
Overall, Rosario has shown a terrific work ethic that has led to his continuous improvement. He’s gone from a .278/.328/.378 hitter for four different A league teams to a .344/.394/.459 hitter in AA. This marked improvement is why he has named the 79th best prospect by MLB.com this year. It’s why Keith Law named him baseball’s 42nd best prospect and has called him a superstar. It’s also why Baseball America named him the 98th best prospect in 2015, the 58th best prospect in 2016, and a member of the All-Prospect Team for June. Overall, it’s why Rosario keeps receiving accolades and drawing “Wows” from the people that come in contact with him. All of this and more is why the Mets aren’t going to trade Rosario.
In many ways, the Mets naming Rosario an untouchable prospect in a year they may need to make a big trade could be the biggest honor of them all. He’s earned that honor as well as all the others he has received. As long as Rosario keeps working hard and keeps improving, he’s going to receive even more.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Matt Harvey having season ending surgery has put the Mets rotation in flux, and it could potentially lead towards the team deciding which one of their prospects should be added to the rotation. With Robert Gsellman only having made one AAA start and his being on the disabled list, there are only two prospects the Mets have to choose from – Gabriel Ynoa and Seth Lugo.
For many, the obvious choice is Ynoa. The 23 year old Ynoa has been regarded as one of the top prospects in the Mets minor league system. He has progressed rather quickly through the Mets minor league system which is all the more remarkable when you consider how conservative this front office tends to be with their prospects. In this his first full season in AAA, Ynoa was named a Pacific Coast League All Star. He is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in his first 17 starts. These are impressive numbers when you consider Ynoa pitches to contact and that he’s pitching in a hitter’s friendly league. Given his status as a Mets top prospect and the fact that he is pitching well in AAA, it seems like he would be the obvious choice to join the Mets rotation over a pitcher like Lugo.
The 26 year old Lugo was the Mets 2011 34th round selection out of Centenary College of Louisiana. That’s a Division III NCAA school. This season he lost his spot in the AAA rotation due to how poorly he had been pitching. Overall, Lugo has made 13 starts and six relief appearances going 3-4 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP. These are ugly numbers that were brought up time and again when the Mets first called him up to the majors to pitch out of the bullpen. However, in his first relief appearance, we quickly found out why we scout a pitcher for their repertoire instead of their stats when he struck out Anthony Rizzo with a filthy curveball:
As you can see, Lugo has a filthy curveball that can get fool even the best major league hitters. Lugo combines that pitch with a fastball in the mid 90s, a slider in the upper 80s, and a developing changeup. This is the repertoire Lugo used to pitch two scoreless innings against a Cubs team that has scored the most runs in the National League. This is the same repertoire Lugo was developing when he went 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP in five AAA starts last year. Overall, you can reasonably argue that Lugo’s fastball and curveball are two plus major league ready pitches. As we have seen with a number of Mets pitchers, time spent with Dan Warthen will only help him further develop that slider. Despite his early season struggles, he’s arguably more ready to succeed in the majors.
In fact, Lugo has had success in his limited work with the Mets this year. In the aforementioned game against the Cubs, Lugo pitched two scoreless innings allowing only two hits while striking out two. When he had to take the place of an injured Noah Syndergaard, Lugo responded with two scoreless and hitless innings against the Nationals. Lugo is clearly proving he can get big league hitters out, and that the Mets should consider him for a rotation spot.
Montero, on the other hand, struggled in his last start. He lasted only four innings allowing 10 hits, five earned, and one walk while striking out only two. In his last three starts, Ynoa has averaged 4.2 innings with a 9.42 ERA and a 2.163 WHIP. Ynoa has hit a bump, and he needs to remain in AAA to make the necessary adjustments.
Right now, Lugo is better equipped to get out major league hitters. He’s a better bet to succeed in the Mets rotation. Lugo should get his shot.
Back in 2010 when Jacob deGrom was drafted out of Stetson University as a shortstop, you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the Mets organization that truly believed deGrom would not only be a future Rookie of the Year, but also one of the top pitchers in baseball. In fact, deGrom wasn’t even seen as such when he was first called-up to the Mets in 2014.
At that point in time, the Mets were in a year of transition, and they were at the point of trying to figure out who could be a part of the team in 2015 when the Mets were really intent on becoming contenders. One of the players called-up was obviously deGrom who was was 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.278 WHIP in seven starts in AAA. This was a marked improvement from the pitcher who was 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.467 WHIP in 14 starts in AAA the previous year. During said 2013 season, deGrom had made 10 starts in AA going 2-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.483 WHIP. Sure, there were reasons to expect he could eventually pitch in the majors. He was a four pitch pitcher that had a mid 90s fastball and a good slider.
When Dillon Gee went down with an injury, the 26 year old deGrom was called up to the majors to make a start in his stead. There was no timetable on how long deGrom was going to either stay in the majors or in the rotation. However, if push came to shove, the Mets were more inclined to move deGrom into the bullpen and let Rafael Montero stay in the rotation. At that point, Montero was seen as a much better and more polished prospect who had good command and was a groundball pitcher. What transpired was deGrom proved that his 2014 AAA season was no fluke. He went on to make 22 starts that season going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.140 WHIP en route to becoming the National League Rookie of the Year.
He had surpassed Montero who had not pitched as well in his opportunity and who dealt with some injuries thereby opening the door for deGrom to forever solidify not only his place in the rotation, but also the Mets plans.
Right now, the Mets have a pitcher in Matt Harvey who is injured, and that is going to open the door for a pitcher to get a chance to show that they are capable of being part of this Mets rotation. Much like in 2014, the prospects that are battling it out is a 26 year old in Seth Lugo who was never expected to be in this position and a 23 year old pitcher in Gabriel Ynoa who relies upon his control and groundballs to get outs. Much like in 2014, the Mets have deemed the younger pitcher to be the better prospect. In many ways, this could be the case of history repeating itself.
So far, Lugo has made one major league appearance. In that one relief appearance, he showed that he has the stuff to get hitters out at this level. Like deGrom, he has seemingly taken his game to the next level once he got called-up to the majors. Right now, the only thing that really separates him and deGrom is the fact that deGrom got his chance to establish himself in the major league rotation. Of course, it was easier for the Mets to give deGrom his shot in 2014 when the team was going nowhere. It’s a lot harder to justify such a decision when the team is in the thick of both the NL East and Wild Card races. And yet, with that in mind, the Mets should want to put the guys in the rotation that have the best chance to get batters out.
Arguably, that pitcher is Seth Lugo. He just needs to get the chance deGrom did to prove it.
On Opening Day 2015, Jenrry Mejia was unavailable due to an elbow injury. As a result, Terry Collins turned to Buddy Carlyle to close out the Mets 3-1 victory. Between Mejia’s elbow injury and his successive steroid suspensions, the Mets would need to turn to Jeurys Familia to become their closer. Familia wouldn’t get a chance to earn a save for about another week. In that April 12, 2015 game, Familia recorded two outs to earn his first save of the season. It would set him on a path where he has become the best closer in the game.
Since 2015, Familia has pitched 118.1 innings in 117 appearances. In those appearances, he has a 2.13 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 183 ERA+, and 72 saves. His 72 saves are second only to Mark Melancon in that time frame. However, unlike Melancon, Familia is more than a three out closer. Familia leads all closers in appearances, innings pitched, and multiple inning saves. Familia has done whatever his team has asked of him to help his team win. These are all part of what makes Familia a great closer. However, what is often overlooked is his durability. It’s his durability that truly makes him great.
We recently saw how important durability is with Wade Davis. Davis was as dominant a closer as there was in baseball. Mets fans need not look any further than the World Series for evidence of that. In the same time frame that Familia has been the Mets closer, Davis has had a 1.02 ERA and a 421 ERA+. That ERA+ is more than double that of Mariano Rivera‘s career mark of 205, which also happens to be the best in major league history. By any measure, Davis could be anointed the best closer in the game. However, he’s not in the conversation right now as he’s currently on the disabled list with a right forearm strain. As Mets fans have seen with Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, a forearm strain in your pitching arm can be an ominous sign.
As we see all the time in sports, one the most important abilities a player must have is availability. Familia has been available more than any other closer in the game, and he has pitched just as well if not better than all of them. This year he was finally recognized as such when he was named to his first All Star team. Given his durability and his ability to close out games, it will be the first of many.
This past week three Mets were named as National League All Stars – Yoenis Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia. Familia is the seventh Mets closer to ever be named as an All Star. Can you name the other six? Good luck!