Musings
At the end of the month, 29 year old Tim Tebow is going to hold a showcase for all interested major league teams in an attempt to get a professional contract. The Mets should attend the showcase, and regardless of the outcome, the Mets should sign him.
There are those that will tell you he can play baseball. Former Met and current player agent Gary Sheffield called Tebow “a natural” at the plate. Mets hitting coach Kevin Long looked at tape of Tebow’s swing, and he said, “His swing is very simple. Not a whole lot of head or body movement. Chad and Tim did a nice job of simplifying and putting his swing together. It’s short and explosive.” (New York Daily News). Couple that with Tebow’s belief in his own abilities and his raw athletic talent, and Tebow may just very well prove all the doubters wrong and become a major league player.
These are all very well and good reasons why you would take a flyer on Tebow. There’s a bigger reason why you would take a flyer on him – money.
Everywhere Tebow goes, fans follow. When he became a New York Jet, fans went out and purchased his jersey. When he got one last chance with the Philadelphia Eagles, Tebow’s jersey was the 15th best selling jersey in the NFL ahead of players like Tony Romo. Whatever team winds up with him is going to get a major boost in attendance. That matters for teams that own their low level minor league affiliates.
Considering the Mets own the St. Lucie Mets and the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets organization should get a jolt of revenue if Tebow were to play in either location. That holds true for St. Lucie, which is in his native Florida, where he has a huge following. That also holds true for Brooklyn where Tebow has a following among Jets fans. That doesn’t even account for the people who will want to come just to see the spectacle.
Keep in mind, Tebow is not necessarily taking the spot of another prospect. Teams routinely fill out their minor league rosters with depth players who they know will never make it to the majors. However, those players don’t typically draw in revenue the way Tebow most likely will. For that reason alone, Tebow is worth a flyer.
Who knows? He may actually have enough talent to make his way to the majors in the process.
The entire Jon Niese situation is just another unforced error in a series of unforced errors during the entire Mets season in how they have dealt with pitcher injuries.
It started with Matt Harvey. From the beginning of the season when he had his medical issues, there was something wrong with Harvey. However, even with his missing time due to it, he started on Opening Day. He struggled somewhat on Opening Day as he would most of the season. He consistently complained of issues with his mechanics, and on a few occasions, the Mets actually debated whether or not he should be sent down to the minors. Even with his velocity drop, the Mets pinned it on mechanics. As it would turn out, Harvey has thoracic outlet syndrome requiring him to have season ending surgery.
Next up was Steven Matz. Matz has bone spurs in his elbow that are very painful. Matz wanted to have the surgery, but the Mets talked him out of it. Instead, the Mets shot him up with painkillers before every start, and they put him on the mound. The Mets did this despite Matz not pitching anywhere near as well as he had been pitching before the bone spurs became an issue. When Matz finally did seem to turn things around, he went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain and rotator cuff irritation. For what it’s worth, it does not seem like he is going to miss the rest of the season. However, given how the Mets have handled him thus far, it is fair to question if this decision is predicated on trying to win as many games as possible or whether Matz really will be ready to return.
Finally, we are back at Niese, who the Mets brought back because they needed another arm with all of the other injuries the Mets had. When Niese faltered in the bullpen allowing six earned in an inning of relief work, the Mets moved him to the rotation believing starting would be better for him and his knee. They were of course wrong. Niese would only last four batters in his last start against the Cardinals before having to come out of the game. Now, he is going to have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He may very well be done for the season.
The Mets decision to start Niese taxed the bullpen as Mets relievers needed to go 8.2 innings in the game. Speaking of the bullpen, we again circle back at the Jim Henderson decision. Henderson is coming off two shoulder surgeries, and he did not pitch in the majors this year. A day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches in a game, Terry Collins went right back to him in a “must-win” April game. Henderson would have reduced velocity not just in that appearance, but also future appearances. He would eventually have to go on the disabled list with a right should impingement.
Judging from how Collins has used Erik Goeddel both this season, a pitcher who has had a series of arm issues, it appears the Mets have no intention of learning from past mistakes.
There is no doubt the Mets have had some bad luck on the injury front. Harvey’s thoracic outlet syndrome wasn’t caused by anything the team did, and bone spurs is a common issue for pitchers. There is no evidence to suggest the Mets did anything to cause Niese’s injury. So no, the injuries aren’t the Mets fault. The issue is how the Mets have handled those injuries. Instead of the Mets giving these players rest and putting them on the disabled list as a precaution like how the Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg, the Mets told them to go out there and continue pitching. It created the possibility that each and every single one of these pitchers could have been further injured.
So no, the Mets can’t be blamed for how each of these pitchers got injured. Rather, the Mets can be blamed for these pitchers might have had further injuries with how the Mets have handled them.
There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.
The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs. Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.
That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat.
Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace.
The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them.
The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record.
The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark.
Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title.
In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division.
Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.
Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card.
Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it.
The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
One of the long forgotten storylines of the early part of the season was the Mets couldn’t hit left-handed pitching. For their careers, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda have mostly struggled against them. That effectively neutralizes two of the best bats in the lineup. Terry Collins ices a third when he refuses to play Michael Conforto against lefties.
With the Mets injuries and Sandy Alderson remaking the roster on the fly, the Mets now destroy left-handed pitching.
It starts with new (and old) leadoff hitter Jose Reyes. In his career, Reyes has always been a slightly better right-hand hitter than he was a left-hand hitter, but this year the splits are even more pronounced. In 25 games against righties, he is hitting .254/.289/.408. However, in the 17 games against lefties, he is destroying them hitting .342/.419/.605. Each and every game, he sets the pace.
Usually playing across the diamond from Reyes is Wilmer Flores who suddenly turns into Babe Ruth when a lefty is on the mound. Flores has played 44 games against lefties, and he is hitting an astounding .344/.392/.678 with three doubles, nine homers, and 22 RBI. Flores OPS+ against lefties is 176. To put how good that is in perspective, that 176 is better than Paul Goldschmidt‘s and Jose Altuve‘s. Goldschmidt and Altuve currently led their respective leagues in those categories.
Rounding out the infield is Neil Walker who has been a completely different hitter against lefties this season. Walker entered the year hitting .260/.317/.338 against lefties. This year, he is hitting .327/.383/.612 against them. He has more than doubled his homers against lefties this year.
In the outfield, with Juan Lagares going down with injury, the Mets eventually replaced him with Justin Ruggiano. He has been the Mets center fielder when a left-handed pitcher starts a game. In his seven games against lefties, Ruggiano has hit .400/.471/.867, and he had a monster home run against Jaime Garcia:
It’s not a fluke for him either. In his eight year career, Ruggiano is hitting .276/.340/.530 against lefties.
When you add these bats to a lineup that already has Yoenis Cespedes, you have a team that mashes lefties. You have a team that knocks Madison Bumgarner out after five innings. You have an offense that can do anything no matter who is on the mound. You have an offense you believe can go the postseason as the second Wild Card.
Back in 2007, the Mets collapsed in part due to a rash of pitcher injuries. Pedro Martinez missed most of the year following offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum. An injured Orlando Hernandez (El Duque) had to be moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen. With they myriad of injuries, Mike Pelfrey was put in the rotation before he was truly ready. Brian Lawrence made a few poor starts. With the walls crashing in on the Mets and the Phillies gaining on them, the Mets had to turn to Philip Humber.
Humber was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft. In his career, he never lived up to that billing. It could have been that he was damaged goods coming from Rice University, who is well known for abusing pitcher arms. He did have ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery before his major league debut. It could be that he was rushed through the system never being given proper time to develop. It could any single factor or any combination thereof. It could just be that he just wasn’t good enough to be a top line starting pitcher.
He certainly wasn’t on September 27, 2007. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, two walks, no strikeouts, and one home run allowed. Humber did his best to battle that night, but he either wasn’t ready or wasn’t capable of winning a big game like that. The only reason he didn’t take the loss was the Mets staked him to a 4-0 and a 6-2 lead. It would be his last game as a Met as he would be part of the Johan Santana trade. It was also the last day the Mets would have sole possession of first place as the loss would drop them to only one up in the division.
Like in 2007, the starting pitching is dropping like flies. Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and even Jon Niese have found themselves on the disabled list. Logan Verrett has served as this year’s Lawrence. Robert Gsellman serves as this year’s Pelfrey. However, Lugo isn’t quite this year’s Humber. They really have nothing in common.
Whereas Humber was a high draft pick, Lugo was a 34th round draft pick. While Humber was pushed through the minors without mastering a level, Lugo has performed at each and every level having to prove himself over and over again. During his career, Humber had trouble developing a real outpitch. Conversely, Lugo has a terrific curveball that has already fooled Anthony Rizzo, who is a terrific major league hitter. More importantly, the main difference between Humber and Lugo is Lugo has already had success as a pitcher for the Mets.
In nine appearances as a reliever, Lugo pitched 17.0 innings and had a 2.65 ERA. When injuries forced him to make an unexpected start, Lugo was better than anyone could have imagined. He was not only good, but he was efficient. When Lugo walked off the mound, he had pitched 6.2 innings allowing seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. At a minimum, Lugo has shown everyone he has the capability of being a good and reliable major league pitcher.
During this season, this Mets team has been compared to past Mets teams that have failed. Namely, they have been compared to the 1987, 2001, and 2007 teams. You can go up and down the line and compare different aspects of those teams to this current team. However, those comparisons need to stop with Lugo as everyone should have faith when Lugo steps on the mound.
There is no sugar coating it. Travis d’Arnaud has had a bad year. Blame his shoulder. Blame the hex the Mets have seemingly been under this year. Blame whatever you want. The simple fact remains d’Arnaud has had a horrible year. You can even say he has regressed offensively.
However, behind the plate, he is the same guy he has always been. He is still a terrific pitch framer that helps his staff by helping ensure that strikes are called strikes and by occasionally getting a ball called a strike. He allows very few passed balls. When there is a play at the plate, d’Arnaud is not only adept at fielding a throw, but he does a great job blocking the plate within the terms of the new rules. As seen last night, he goes a great job in making sure he gets the tag on the runner before they have a chance to touch the plate.
He is slightly below average in throwing out base stealers when there is a pitcher on the mound that bothers holding on runners. When the pitcher doesn’t hold runners on, like most catcher’s he virtually has no chance to throw out the base runner. Generally speaking, he seems to call a good game, and there have never been any public complaints from any of his pitchers about his abilities behind the plate.
The reason is on the average d’Arnaud is a good defensive catcher. While it was anticipated that d’Arnaud’s value would be in his bat, the truth is, as a major leaguer so far, his real value is as a receiver.
With all that said, it seems d’Arnaud has been the scapegoat for this entire 2016 season. With the Mets struggling offensively, the team sought to upgrade the position by aggressively pursuing Jonathan Lucroy. Apparently, James Loney and his 86 OPS+ wasn’t hurting the team. When someone steals a base, it is on him. Nevermind the fact that Rene Rivera also has a supbar caught stealing percentage (28.6%) or that Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz don’t bother holding on base runners. On a team where no one is hitting well, he is the guy slated to hit eighth. Seemingly, d’Arnaud has been blamed for everything. It is a shock no one has pinned Yoenis Cespedes injuring his quad on d’Arnaud.
Even with that in mind Nelon Figueroa took blaming d’Arnaud to a new level. After the game, Figureoa pinned part of the blame for Jacob deGrom’s poor outing on d’Arnaud. Figueroa took issue with d’Arnaud not going out to the mound to calm down deGrom (frankly, a lost art in the game that few catchers do), and with his pitch selection saying d’Arnaud failed to call inside pitchers. Only that’s not what happened.
According to deGrom, it was on him saying, “It’s hard to get results when you throw everything right down the middle. That’s what it is. I’m missing down the middle and these are big-league hitters and that’s what they do.” (New York Post).
There is no amount of pitch calling, pitch framing, or pep talks that can cure a starting pitcher who has just been completely missing his spots for two days now. There are very fair and valid criticisms of d’Arnaud. As noted, he doesn’t throw base runners out. Furthermore, he is having a terrible offensive season. That’s all on him. However, things are going overboard with people now blaming him for other player’s poor performance.
In the Bergen County Record, Bob Klapisch had this gem regarding whether or not Yoenis Cespedes will exercise his opt out clause after the season:
When asked by The Record’s Matt Ehalt if he intended to honor all three years of his current $75 million contract, without opting out, Cespedes flatly said, “Yes.”
In what has been a trying year for the Mets and Mets fans, this is a brief respite that should give each and every Mets fan reason for joy. However, it is hard to believe Cespedes.
As it stands now, Cespedes stands to be the top free agent on the market this offseason. If he opts-in, he could potentially be losing $100 million, possibly more. There should be several big market teams who want more offense that could offer Cespedes more money than the Mets are able or are willing to offer him.
Remember, Cespedes is a man who missed out on a chance of a lifetime. When Cespedes left Cuba, he left behind his mother, his son, and many more friends and relatives. Instead of going back to Cuba to see his loved ones, he stayed in the United States because he was “a free agent seeking a huge multiyear deal and essentially [had] to attend to business.” (New York Times). Quite possibly, Cespedes missed his last chance to ever see his mother and son again because getting a big multiyear deal was that important to him. This is not to be critical to Cespedes. Rather, it is to show how important the financial security, and yes, being in the right place is to him.
Remember, it’s easy to say you’re staying when it is August and your team is in the thick of the Wild Card chase. It is another thing all together when it’s just you and your agent, and you have a life altering decision to be made. An off-hand comment is not the same thing as purposefully walking away from at least $100 million. Even if he were so inclined. His agent wouldn’t let him. It’s probably why within 24 hours the story changed.
Now, when asked if he made up his mind about staying with the Mets past this season, Cespedes said, “Nope. My focus is just to play baseball and help the team win, hopefully make it to the playoffs. I let my agents worry about all that.” (New York Post).
Cespedes would also say he wants to remain a Met for the reason of his career. I believe Cespedes when he says that. He has seemingly found a home with the Mets. He seems to enjoy it here. He has become a much better player with the team. These are all terrific and very valid reasons why he wants to stay.
However, there are going to be over $100 million reasons that will help him make his decision where he winds up next year and the next few years past that.
He was really focused on that deal last offseason. It meant enough for him to miss seeing his loved ones. It will be just as, if not more important, this offseason.
He’s going to opt out.
This will be the third time after the All Star Break that Jacob deGrom is pitching in an important game against a team in the thick of the playoff race. The first two times did not go well.
On July 23rd, the Mets were coming off a 5-3 victory against the Marlins. If the Mets were able to win consecutive games for the first time in almost a month, the Mets would’ve jumped a half game over the Marlins and claimed the second Wild Card spot. However, deGrom faltered in his first start after his career complete game shutout. He allowed five earned on 10 hits in only 3.2 innings in a game the Mets lost 7-2. Instead of being a half-game behind the Marlins, the Mets were 1.5 games back, and they have not yet caught up to the Marlins in the standings.
On August 18th, the Mets were at .500 after a terrible nine game stretch against two of the worst teams in baseball. The Mets sent deGrom to the mound in what was supposed to be a classic pitcher’s duel against Madison Bumgarner. Neither pitcher lived up to the billing. For his part, deGrom would only last five innings surrendering a career high 13 hits while allowing eight earned in the Mets 10-7 loss to the Giants. With the loss, the Mets would fall back under .500, and they would fall 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.
The Mets have been playing much better of late having won three in a row. With last night’s win over the Cardinals, the Mets are a game over .500 and are 3.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. With a win, the Mets will have won four in a row, pulled a game closer to the Cardinals, and they will have real momentum.
Tonight’s game won’t be easy. The Mets are going against Carlos Martinez, who has been the Cardinals’ best pitcher all season. That means deGrom is going to have to be at his best. He hasn’t been in these situations since the All Star Break.
However, to say he isn’t capable of going out there tonight and pitching a gem tonight is absurd. It was deGrom who started off the NLDS last year out-dueling Clayton Kershaw to give the Mets a 1-0 lead in the series. In that game, deGrom struck out 13 Dodgers over seven shutout innings. In Game Five of that series, deGrom had nothing, but he outlasted Zack Greinke and kept the Mets in the game over six of the gutsiest innings you will ever see a Mets pitcher throw. In the NLCS, deGrom effectively ended the series with a dominant Game Three performance.
No matter how you slice or dice it, deGrom is a big game pitcher. Just because he has faltered in his two chances after the All Star Break doesn’t mean he won’t go out there tonight and shut down the Cardinals. While Noah Syndergaard could have the best stuff in all of baseball, deGrom is the Mets pitcher you trust most out there. He is the ace of the staff. He’s going to have a big game tonight.
With Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and now Robert Gsellman, the Mets feature a team with a number a players with long flowing locks:
Whose flow is best? Reply with who you think rules the #Mets hair game. #LGM pic.twitter.com/aC2Dgbz86S
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 23, 2016
None of that could prepare you for the Gary Cohen photo from college during the game last night:
Who knew Gary Cohen was a hippy? Heck, who knew he had hair?
At this point, seeing Gary Cohen, it’s fair to say none of the Mets will beat either this photo or this hair style.