Musings
Hopefully, the Mets will be in peak defensive form as the team is going to send Jon Niese to the mound in a critical three game set in St. Louis. How did we get to this point?
Plain and simple, a mixture of bad luck and bad planning. Niese was never supposed to be a Met in 2016. The Mets traded him for Neil Walker, and with his reasonably affordable option years, it was presumed that he would be a Pirate through the 2018 season. However, Niese was horrendous this season leaving the Pirates to demote him to the bullpen. They were clearly going to let him walk after the season was over. Fortunately for the Pirates, they were able to get rid of him even sooner.
The Mets had to contend with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery which left a hole in the rotation Logan Verrett couldn’t quite fill. Despite know this, the Mets kept turning to Verrett as they did not trust Gabriel Ynoa, Robert Gsellman, or Seth Lugo. Sean Gilmartin went down with a shoulder injury. Additionally, the Mets had the under-performing Antonio Bastardo in the bullpen. The Mets were probably the one team who could use Niese as a bullpen arm and/or a possible fifth starter. They were probably also the one team that believed they could salvage Niese.
As it turns out, the Mets desperately needed Niese. Verrett couldn’t handle being the fifth starter. Ynoa appeared as if the wasn’t ready in his short stint in the Mets bullpen. Gsellman isn’t putting up great numbers in AAA. Worst of all, Steven Matz was just diagnosed with a mild rotator cuff strain. It is quite possible the Mets will need to not only replace Harvey, but also Matz for the rest of the season. That will put Seth Lugo in the rotation. It also means the Mets will have to keep Niese in the rotation for the remainder of the season.
It’s strange to think about it. Niese was the first pitcher removed from the rotation last season. The Mets seemingly wanted to get rid of him. Now? Now, he is a key part of a rotation that is taking the ball to start what is the Mets most critical series to date.
Niese has his fair share of detractors due to his struggles and his inability to accept any blame for his poor pitching. Detractors could also be synonymous with Mets fans in this case. With a big finish to the season, Niese can win over a large group of Mets fans. That all begins tonight.
Somehow, some way, the Niese are relying on Jon Niese yet again. It’s strange how it came to this point, but here we all are. Let’s hope Niese makes the best of it because if the does, the Mets will return to the postseason.
Currently, the Mets outfielders are Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson, and Justin Ruggiano. Not on this list is Michael Conforto as the Mets have no intention of calling him up until September 1st.
Conforto is absolutely raking in AAA. In the 10 games since his demotion, Conforto is 22-40 with four doubles, four homers, eight RBI, and two walks. That is a .550/.581/.950 batting line. Offensive statistics in the Pacific Coast League are typically inflated, but they aren’t that inflated.
Better yet, over his two stints in the minors this year, Conforto is hitting .500/.559/.633 with a double, a homer, and seven RBI in 30 at bats.
No, the Mets have no interest in that production right now even with them playing in a crucial three game set against the Cardinals that will have a dramatic impact upon their chances of winning the Wild Card. Instead, the Mets want to go with the following:
- Bruce who is hitting .169/.263/.282 in 19 games as a Met
- De Aza who is hitting .192/.287/.308 on the season and .133/.264/.311 in August
- Granderson who is hitting .224/.312/.428 on the year and .186/.240/.347 since the All Star Break
- Ruggiano who was released from the Rangers while he was in AAA and is a career .258/.322/.438 hitter
Overall, the only player who deserves to be in the lineup day-in and day-out is Cespedes. After that, the Mets have to pick two other outfielders who are playing best to man center and right. Looking at the Mets 40 man roster, it is hard to believe that Conforto isn’t one of those players right now.
Hopefully, the Mets will sweep the Cardinals and get terrific production from their center and right fielders. If not, we will all be left asking why were the Mets willing to field their best possible team and best possible lineup in the most important series of the year.
Yesterday, both Stephen Strasburg and Steven Matz were placed on the disabled list for very different reasons.
The Nationals put Strasburg on the disabled list as a precaution as the pitcher complained of elbow stiffness. General Manager Mike Rizzo felt it was the right move saying, “We felt like the prudent thing to do – like we always have with our pitchers – was to give him this reset. We’re going to put him on the DL rather than pitch through some routine inflammation and soreness.” (Washington Post).
These are the things you do when you sign a pitcher to a seven year $175 million contract extension. Teams are afforded this luxury when you enter the day 8.5 game up in the division with a 99.99% chance of making the playoffs.
The Mets, who are in a different position than the Nationals, took a completely different course with Matz.
Matz wasn’t dealing with “routine inflammation or soreness,” rather he was dealing with bone spurs that were affecting his ability to finish his pitches. When asked about how to proceed, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson said, “At this point it’s a function of whether he can tolerate the discomfort while continuing to pitch. What we will do is monitor this discomfort, monitor his mechanics to make sure whatever discomfort he has doesn’t cause him to do something that might lead to something else, and we’ll monitor it on a start-by-start basis.” (ESPN).
Before each and every start, Matz needed to take painkillers before every start to manage the pain in his elbow, and now, Matz’s elbow discomfort has led to a shoulder injury. Matz has gone from pitching through bone spurs to landing on the disabled list with what the Mets are calling a mild strain and inflammation of his rotator cuff.
It should be noted this wasn’t the prudent course with Matz. Quite to the contrary. In fact, according to Jon Heyman, the Mets reportedly talked Matz out of getting surgery to remove the bone spurs despite him pitching with the bone spurs for at least a month with declining production.
At the time the Mets reported Matz’s bone spurs, the Mets were 40-35. They were 4.0 games out in the National League East, and they were a half a game behind the Marlins for the second Wild Card.
Beginning with the start prior to the June 27th announcement, Matz has gone 2-5 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.300 WHIP. Before that date, Matz was 7-3 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP.
During this post-June 27th stretch, the Mets have fine 22-27 slipping to 11.0 games behind in the National League East and 4.5 games behind for the second Wild Card.
The Mets pushed Matz, and they got declining production from him as they fell lower in the standings. Now, the Mets have lost Matz for at least three starts while the team is fighting for their playoff lives.
It makes you question whether things would have gone differently if the Mets took the prudent course in erring on the side of caution to protect their young pitchers arm instead of pushing him into another injury.
Ahead of a huge three game set against the St. Louis Cardinals, the 61-61 New York Mets are at .500 and are 4.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. Even with a good series here, nothing is guaranteed as the Mets are one of four teams currently withing five games of the last Wild Card spot. Here is where they all stand:
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are currently the second Wild Card with a 66-57 record. The team is hot having gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Cardinals hot streak is surprising given the fact that they are without Matt Adams, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, Seth Maness, and Trevor Rosenthal. The current Cardinals streak is a testament to their depth, resiliency, and the managing ability of Mike Matheny. Either that or it is a random hot streak, and the Mets are in prime position to take them down.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are at 65-59 and are 1.5 games back of the Cardinals. Over their last 10 games, the Marlins are playing .500 ball. Worse yet for the team, they are starting to deal with some major injury problems. The team is most likely without Giancarlo Stanton and Wei-Yin Chen for the rest of the season. The team is currently without Adam Conley, and they have the prospect of having to shut down Jose Fernandez at some point in the season. Andrew Cashner was supposed to help alleviate some of these issues, but he has remained the same pitcher he was with the Padres. Offensively, first baseman Justin Bour has been on the disabled list for quite a while, but no one quite knows when he will return.
Over the course of the season, the Marlins have been a pleasant surprise (if you’re not a Mets fan). Ichiro Suzuki seems rejuvenated and got his 3,000 hit. Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds have changed the culture while helping young players like Christian Yelich reach their potential. However, now that they are no longer healthy, there is real doubt that they can stay in the race.
Pittsburgh Pirates
As we have seen with the Pirates the past few seasons, the Pirates a second half team. They are currently 62-59, three games back, and have a favorable schedule from here on out.
The Pirates are turning things around by turning over their rotation. They have traded away struggling and underperforming pieces in Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese and have replaced them with top prospect Jameson Taillon and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Nova seems to be the type of pitcher pitching coach Ray Searage thrives with, and it certainly hasn’t hurt him being reunited with his old catcher Francisco Cervelli.
Part of the reason the Pirates are in this position is not just their rotation, but it was also due to the struggles of Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is having a big second half. Coupled with Starling Marte‘s terrific season, and the Pirates suddenly have a potent lineup.
In the end, the big question is if the young Pirates rotation and a bullpen without Mark Melancon can continue a second half charge to claim the second Wild Card spot.
New York Mets
The Mets have been a mess since April. Most of their players were hurt, stopped hitting, or both. However, now, the team is healthy, or as healthy as they can possibly be. Seeing Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup reminds you of the difference maker he is in the Mets lineup, and it is a reminder of the type of run the Mets are capable of making. For that to happen, the Mets are going to need more of the same from Jacob deGrom, and they are going to need Noah Syndergaard to keep pitching the way he did yesterday. The Mets will also need their other pitchers to step up especially if Steven Matz is going to be out for the season like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are.
In the end, if the Mets are goign to run, they have to start with them taking the Cardinals down a few pegs in this three game set starting tomorrow. If the Mets are not able to at least win two out of three, it is going to be an even steeper hill to climb to make it back to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online.
On August 22, 1973, the Mets won their second game in a row to raise the Mets record to 57-67 leaving them 6.0 games out in the National League East behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.
From that point forward, the Mets would be the hottest team in baseball going 25-12 carrying them to an unlikely division championship. The Mets rode the hot streak to beat the Big Red Machine 3-2 in a best of five NLCS, and they came within a win of disrupting the Oakland A’s dynasty.
The popular story was the Mets were spurred by Tug McGraw screaming “Ya Gotta Believe!” after a M.Donald Grant “pep talk” in July. However, the truth is that team just got healthy at the right time, and when the team was at 100%, they were among the best teams in baseball.
During that year, the team was hampered by injuries. Jerry Grote, John Milner, Bud Harrelson, and Cleon Jones all missed significant time. Rusty Staub player through injuries all year. On top of that phenom Jon Matlack was having a down year a year removed from winning the Rookie of the Year Award. He was joined by Jerry Koosman in having a surprising down year. Willie Mays looked to be every bit of his 42 years of age. Young fill-ins like Don Hahn just were not producing. The Mets were forced to do anything they could do to improve the team like releasing dead weight like Jim Fregosi. About all that went right that season for the Mets was Tom Seaver; that and the fact that no one ran away with the division allowing the Mets to enter the postseason with an 82-79 record.
Isn’t that what this Mets season has been. With Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Adrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, we have seen this Mets team be hampered time and again by injuries. We have seen countless Mets play through injuries like Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz with their bone spurs. We’ve seen replacements like Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds not play up to snuff. Players like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto had surprising down years. About the only thing that has gone right for the Mets this year is the fact that Jacob deGrom has continued to pitch like an ace, and the fact that no one has ran away with the second Wild Card spot.
Maybe, just maybe, this is 1973 all over again. That 1973 team was much further back in both the standings and more teams to leapfrog in the standings. All they needed to do was to get healthy and to get hot. Right now, with Cespedes back and hitting home runs for the Mets again, this team is healthy, and they are on the verge of getting hot. If that happens, the Mets can very well take that second Wild Card spot and get into the postseason.
As we saw in 1973 as well as last year, with great Mets pitching, the Mets can beat anyone in the postseason. They can shock the world. Anything is possible so long as they get hot and get into the postseason.
Overall, if you want to excuse the Mets performance due to injuries, there’s merit to the argument. However, don’t let that excuse away Terry Collins’ and Sandy Alderson’s performance. They chose to go with players have established they can’t do it instead of giving other players a legitimate opportunity.
On the Fourth of July, Matt Harvey made his last start of the season. Despite Harvey’s understandably poor performance, he left behind a gaping hole in the rotation the Mets didn’t fill.
First, the Mets went with Logan Verrett. In seven starts, Verrett went 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA and a 1.541 WHIP while only averaging five innings per start. He then lost his job to “fan favorite” Jon Niese who had been demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates before being traded to the Mets. In his lone start, Niese pitched 4.2 innings allowing four hits, four earned, and two walks with six strikeouts.
Combined, Verrett and Niese were 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. Last night, Seth Lugo walked off the mound after 6.2 terrific innings having only allowed seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. He’d leave being two base runners that Jerry Blevins would allow to score.
When David Wright and Lucas Duda went down with season ending injuries, the Mets first turned to Eric Campbell who hit .159/.270/.222 with one double, one homer, and five RBI.
Next up was Matt Reynolds, who not only helped fill-in for Wright, but also provide some days off for Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. Reynolds hit .211/.231/.382 with seven doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI.
Next up was Ty Kelly. As an infielder, Kelly is hitting .227/.292/.364 with one homer and three RBI.
Combined, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kelly have hit .191/.264/.315 with eight doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI. These are the options the Mets went with while making excuses why T.J. Rivera shouldn’t be called-up to the majors. When Rivera finally fot his shot, he hit .355/.344/.419 with two doubles and three RBI in nine games.
So yes, injuries have impacted the Mets. However, who they chose to replace those injured players had a similar negative impact. The Mets would’ve been much better with a healthy Harvey, Wright, and Duda. It’s possible they would’ve been over .500 and in the Wild Card race if they had given Lugo and Rivera a shot earlier.
Commissioner Rob Manfred has recently announced that he is interested in introducing a pitch clock to Major League Baseball. The pitch clock was first introduced last year in the upper levels of the minors, and it appears the Commissioner is pleased with it’s progress.
The rule as stated is that a pitcher must starts his windup or motion within 20 seconds of having the ball while stepping on the pitching rubber. The rule has initiated in the minors to help speed the pace of play which has been the Commissioner’s focus since he took over for Bud Selig. The Commissioner has considered various routes including limiting the use of relievers. However, it appears the Commissioner is focusing upon the pitch clock as a means to improve the pace a play. It’s a bad idea that may lead to pitcher injuries.
According to a recent study from the Journal of Sports Science, there is a link between the amount of time a pitcher takes between pitches and arm injuries. The researchers, Michael Sonne and Peter Keir analyzed the amount of time between pitches and arm injuries, and from there, they were able to make the correlation. According to Sonne, “One of the risk factors that we typically look at with muscle fatigue and injury is the amount of time people have to recover from doing effort.” (Brendan Kennedy, The Star). When a pitcher experiences fatigue according to Sonne, “you essentially lose the ability to stabliize the (elbow) joint as they throw.” Overall, when looking at pitchers, Sonne states you need to look “at the duration of exposure to pitching, but also the duration of rest.”
To that end, the researchers have concluded that baseball’s proposed 20 second pitch clock is a bad idea. Sonne states, “If you put in this pitch clock it’s a very cut-and-dry way of reducing the amount of recovery time that a pitcher has.”Sonne and Keir concluded that the 20 second pitch clock would create muscle fatigue for pitchers who take longer than 20 seconds between pitches, and as a result, it would expose them to injury. It may not seem like a big deal, but as Sonne points out, “It seems like a small amount, but when a pitcher is throwing at maximum effort, every bit of muscle force matters.”
This proposed rule is a huge problem for the Mets young pitchers. As per Fangraphs, the young Mets starters have needed more than 20 seconds to throw a pitch
| Name | Team | Pace | Pitches |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 23.9 | 2,238 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 18.7 | 2,153 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 21.1 | 2,065 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 21.5 | 1,514 |
It should be noted that according to FiveThirtyEight, a pitcher’s pace is the one statistic that remains consistent each and every year. A pitchers ERA, WHIP, K/9, etc. will rise and fall each and every year, but pace is the one thing that remains largely unchanged. This means that Syndergaard’s, deGrom’s, and Harvey’s health would be at risk in the event that the 20 second pitch clock were implemented.
Keep in mind that Harvey, Matz, and deGrom have already had Tommy John surgery. Additionally, Harvey recently had surgery to remove a rib to help alleviate the symptoms from his thoracic outlet syndrome. While Syndergaard has not had Tommy John surgery, he has been dealing with bone spurs in his elbow. Syndergaard also throws the ball at a high velocity, has begun throwing a slider with much more frequency, and he is experiencing a large jump in his innings pitched from 2014. Adding a pitch clock will only further serve to create another possible avenue by which Syndergaard, and really all young pitchers, could injure themselves.
The pitch clock sounds good in theory as a faster pace of play will certainly be more enjoyable for the fans to watch. However, the pitch clock will be counterproductive if it prevents the best and most exciting pitchers from taking the mound. The best fix might be to instill the good habits in the minor leagues and hope they carry those good habits forward.
With Travis d’Arnaud missing time with a shoulder injury and struggling at the plate all season, the Mets were all but forced to inquire about Jonathan Lucroy.
The Mets interest in Lucroy was understandable as the team needed another bat in the lineup with Lucas Duda and David Wright being gone for the season, Yoenis Cespedes being hobbled with a quad injury, and Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and yes, d’Arnaud having down seasons. The Mets needed another bat, and Lucroy seemed to be the answer with him hitting .299/.359/.482 with 17 doubles, three triples, 13 homers, and 50 RBI. That was the type of production the Mets were hoping to add at the trade deadline.
For whatever reason, the Mets were not able to swing a trade for Lucroy at the trade deadline. However, they were able to get Lucroy’s production.
Since the trade deadline passed, d’Arnaud is hitting .311/.354/.444 with two homers and three RBI. It is exactly what the Mets were hoping to get from him after a season in which d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 41 RBI in 67 games last year. It seems that d’Arnaud has turned his season around.
It could be that his shoulder is feeling better. It could be a mechanical adjustment he has made at the plate. It could also be that he is able to just relax and go out there and hit now that the trade deadline has passed. Whatever the case may be, the important thing from the Mets perspective is they seem to have d’Arnaud back.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online
Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are supposed to come off the disabled list, but that doesn’t mean that the Mets are getting healthy for the stretch run. Not in the least. Seth Lugo will make his first career start as Steven Matz is going to miss tonight’s start due to his bone spurs. Sorry, he is going to miss the start due to shoulder discomfort.
Matz started feeling shoulder discomfort the day after his last start. Matz felt this shoulder discomfort after having gone 7.1 innings in his prior start and throwing 120 pitches over six innings the start before that. In his last start, Matz had all but scrapped his slider, and he started relying more on his curveball as a weapon to get batters out.
It is important to note the Mets pitched Matz because they believed there was no structural damage. As Sandy Alderson said, “Continuing to pitch will not cause any structural damage. We will continue to monitor his situation, but at this point it’s a function of if he can tolerate the discomfort while continuing to pitch.” (New York Post). It should also be noted that, according to Jon Heyman, the Mets talked Matz out of getting surgery to remove the bone spur. Instead, the Mets decided it was best to have their young lefty try to pitch through the pain and help the Mets win another World Series.
One thing that stood out in Matz’s last start was how everyone seemed to believe he turned a corner. Not just this season, but possibly his career. Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez talked a few times about how important it was for young players to learn the ability to pitch while being hurt, while having pain. As Darling would say, pitchers always have pain, and therefore, they need to learn how to deal with it if they are going to take that next step.
That begs the question – was Matz pitching through pain or was he pitching through injury? Matz is going to miss this start, and according to Terry Collins, he may very well miss his next start as well. What if Matz pitching with the bone spurs led to his shoulder injury? There will be many theories bandied about, but at the end of the day, no one knows quite for sure. However, what we do know is that the Mets best chances to win both this year and the years going forward is keeping their starting pitchers healthy. They haven’t been healthy this year.
For what it’s worth, after his last start, Matz didn’t feel there was an issue saying, “My arm’s been feeling great. I have no complaints there.” (Newsday). Except, now he does, and we don’t know why. The only thing we do know is that the Mets pressured him into pitching with an injury in his elbow, and now, they are sitting him with a shoulder injury.