Musings
As the Mets head into the stretch drive with only 25 games remaining on the schedule, Terry Collins has made it abundantly clear he is going to rely heavily on his veterans down the stretch.
In Michael Conforto‘s first game back from AAA, he was 1-3 with a double and a hit by pitch. He sat the next day. In his second start, Conforto would go 1-3 with another double and a walk. On top of that, he had a game changing diving stop in center field. Despite Collins’ “You hit, you play” mantra, Conforto is sitting.
In his stead, Curtis Granderson is playing. Granderson is playing despite struggling himself most of the season. He’s struggling more so with runners in scoring position. He’s also miscast as a center fielder despite his having been a pretty good one earlier in his career.
With that in mind, the Mets need Granderson out there producing. The team needs the Granderson who was the Mets MVP of the 2015 season. They need the guy who hit three homers in last year’s World Series.
After what has been a season to forget, that Granderson seems to finally be reemerging. In his first at bat with runners in scoring position as the newly and implausibly minted cleanup hitter, Granderson delivered with a two run single.
On Sunday night, Granderson followed with a sacrifice fly scoring Jose Reyes from third. Later in the game, Granderson hit a go-ahead two run home run. In two games as the cleanup hitter, Granderson has five RBI.
If the Mets are going to finish off this run and win the Wild Card, the Mets are going to need this Granderson to help lead the way. They need him because he’s an important part of this team. They need him because the Mets need something resembling lineup protection for Yoenis Cespedes. They need him because no matter what, Collins is going to play him.
Sometimes all you need is a chance.
We saw it in Jacob deGrom in 2014. The 26 year old got a chance due to injuries, and the most of it. He not only showed the Mets he was a better pitcher than then well regarded prospect Rafael Montero, he also showed he was an important part of the Mets rotation going forward. From there, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award, was named an All Star, and pitched the opener of the 2015 postseason. This all happened because he got a chance.
Seth Lugo is getting his chance, and like deGrom, he is making the most of it.
Initially, Lugo was called up to pitch out of the bullpen. He immediately made an impression with his awesome curveball:
In a Mets organization that places such emphasis on the slider and falls in love with fastballs that go over 95+ MPH, you could somewhat understand why Lugo wasn’t more highly regarded. You can really understand it when you consider he had a 6.50 ERA in AAA. Still, Lugo had a good repertoire including that curveball.
According to Statcast, Lugo’s curveball has a higher spin rate than anyone else’s in baseball. Yes, even Clayton Kershaw. The increased spin creates two effects: (1) it created downward movement inducing ground balls; and (2) it induces a number if swings and misses. Lugo’s curveball is a tremendous pitch, and it could very well have been the best pitch in a of the Mets minor league system.
Lugo likes to evenly mix all of his pitches. Even so, the curve is the money pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo generates the highest percentage of his strikeouts on the pitch. Furthermore, the pitch generates the lowest batting average against than any of his other pitches. Perhaps the reason why it’s so effective, other than its spin rate, is the fact that he’s very selective with the pitch. Other than his change, the curveball is the pitch Lugo throws the least often.
This means he mostly relies on his 93 MPH sinker and his 94 MPH fastball. What is impressive about his fastball is his ability to dial it up over 96 MPH in pressure spots. Lugo also has an 88 MPH slider which has been an effective pitch for him. If Warthen is able to help Lugo improve his slider like he has with everyone else on the staff, Lugo’s ceiling will go into the next stratosphere.
Again, the interesting thing breaking down Lugo’s pitches is you’re breaking down the pitches of a pitcher who had the stuff to be in a big league rotation. Prior to this season, there may not have been many who believed that. As Lugo was struggling in AAA, there were probably even fewer. And yet, here he is. He’s not just a major league pitcher, but he’s also an important piece of a rotation that may well be on its way to the postseason.
And all Lugo needed to show us all this was possible was a chance. He got it, and like deGrom, he has made the most of it.
Last night, the Mets received some devastating news when it was discovered that Neil Walker was going to miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disc that is going to require surgery. With Walker done for the year, the Mets are missing not only a good defender, but also a good bat. Someway, somehow the Mets are going to have to replace Walker’s .282/.347/.476 batting line and his 23 homers. It is no easy task.
The obvious solution is a Wilmer Flores – Kelly Johnson platoon. That tandem should be able to replicate Walker’s production as both are incredibly hot at the plate. Flores hit .306/.346/.542 in August with five homers and 19 RBI. Better yet, he is hitting .340/.386/.691 with 10 homers and 26 RBI off lefties this season. For his part, Johnson is hitting .289/.353/.511 with eight homers and 20 RBI in 60 games for the Mets. Over the last month, he is hitting .288/.348/.576 with five homers and 14 RBI. Johnson also had that game winning bases clearing RBI double last night that helped the Mets win the game.
If second base were the only issue, that would be fine. However, the Mets have issues at first base and shortstop that needs to be addressed.
At first base, the Mets have a floundering James Loney. In the month of August, he hit .213/.222/.447 with just one extra base hit. Worse yet, these numbers were with Terry Collins shielding him against left-handed pitching. As we saw last night, Collins is going to be forced to play Flores at first and Johnson at second. When you couple that with Asdrubal Cabrera dealing with a knee injury, the Mets do not have much margin for error.
Even with the rosters expanding today, that remains to be true as the players on the 40 man roster leave a lot to be desired as an everyday replacement.
the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.
Eric Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Yes, four triples. However, this follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.
Ty Kelly is coming off a decent stint in the majors where Collins shielded the switch-hitter against left-handed pitching. Since his demotion Kelly is hitting .258/.314/.290 with only one extra base hit in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.
Finally, there is Matt Reynolds who hit .211/.231/.382 in 37 games with the Mets. After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .255/.333/.294 with only four doubles in 102 at bats.
Keep in mind, T.J. Rivera is not an option at the moment as he needs to remain in the minors until next week because he was sent down to make room for Rafael Montero‘s spot start. This means that even though the Mets have warm bodies available to play the middle infield, they do not have players who can play everyday at the major league level.
With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help. With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.
While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .327/.388/.449 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI. Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .358/.378/.480 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI. While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .929 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 14 games without an error.
For what it is worth, Cecchini has only played one game at secondin his minor league career, and that was Thursday. It should be noted with the rise of Amed Rosario and the trade of Dilson Herrera, Cecchini’s future will be second base. Given the fact that Collins had no issue throwing Reynolds into left field in a game without him having ever played there before, the concerns about him not being a second baseman are a bit overblown.
In reality, the only thing preventing the Mets from calling up Cecchini right now is the fact that he’s not on the 40 man roster. However, with the Jon Niese and Neil Walker injuries, the Mets have the opportunity to move either of them to the 60 day disabled list freeing up a spot for Cecchini. Keep in mind, the Mets are going to have to add Cecchini this offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
With the Mets needing to patch things together on the right side of their infield, they need as many options as possible. They also need some insurance for Cabrera’s knee. They could use another shortstop who could take over for Cabrera late in games to allow him to rest his knee. Furthermore, given the Mets team speed, they could use someone who could be available to pinch run late in games.
Cecchini could fulfill each of these roles quite well. Furthermore, if given the opportunity, he might just prove more valuable than that. At this point, there is really no good reason to keep Cecchini in AAA. He needs to be up in the majors now helping the Mets return to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on Mets Minors
After a long and inexplicable exile, Michael Conforto is finally back with the Mets. He was gone mostly because Terry Collins had to back up this threat “And those that don’t want to get after it, I’ll find some who do. Because in Las Vegas there is a whole clubhouse of guys that want to sit in this room.” (nj.com) after an embarrassing 9-0 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.
Since that time, here is how the outfielders who the Mets decided “really wanted to get after it” have performed between the time of Conforto’s August 12th demotion and his September 1st call-up:
Granderson has been hitting .173/.274/.442 with 11 runs, two doubles, four homers, and seven RBI. Keep in mind, most of that damage started a couple of days ago when Granderson came off the bench to hit two homers against the Marlins. At least with Granderson, Collins followed through on this threat benching him against left-handed pitching.
Bruce has been the team’s main right fielder hitting .190/.277/.259 with four doubles, two homers, and two RBI. Unfortunately, that isn’t too much different than the .183/.262/.290 batting line he has had while joining the Mets. Naturally, since joining the Mets, he has had to deal with nagging leg injuries, which presumably have affected his production at the plate as well as his play in the outfield.
De Aza has had two great games since Conforto’s demotion. On August 16th, he went 2-4 with two runs, two doubles, a walks, and an RBI in a 7-5 win over the Diamondbacks. On August 25th, he went 2-4 with two runs, a homer, a walk, and five RBI in a 10-6 win over the Cardinals. In his other 17 games, De Aza has gone 5-42 with one extra base hit and five RBI.
Ruggiano came off the disabled list, played extremely well in five games, and he has found his way back onto the disabled list. Ruggiano has now been transferred to the 60 day disabled list meaning he’s done for the season. When he initially went on the 15 day disabled list, the Mets called up T.J. Rivera instead of Conforto.
Michael Conforto
Since his demotion, Conforto has played in 15 games hitting .493/.541/.821 with four doubles, six homers, and 13 RBI while playing both center and left field. Against lefties, Conforto has been hitting .488/.553/.732 with a double, three homers, and 11 RBI in 41 AAA at bats this season. He’s been thriving while the outfielder the Mets kept who Collins dubbed “really wanted to get after it” struggled, were injured, or both.
In his first game back, Conforto went 1-3 with a double and a HBP. In the eighth, he hit into a back breaking double play. With that double play, Collins may have his ammunition to bench Conforto again.
It’s a shame too because Conforto can really hit when he is actually given a chance. It’s also a shame because the Mets have shown they’d rather send a group of outfielders hitting below the Mendoza Line rather than let Conforto go out there and hit.
After the Mets taking three of four from the Marlins, Mets fans feel much better about their chances of making the postseason. After that sweep, the Mets are now just two games back of the free falling St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and they are also just four games behind the struggling San Francisco Giants for the top Wild Card spot. While nothing is guaranteed, especially with Neil Walker being definitively done for the season, you have to like the Mets chances of returning to the postseason for a second straight season.
With the Washington Nationals rolling into town, it begs the question – is the National League East really out of reach?
For normal fan bases, the answer would be a definitive no. The current 9.5 game deficit (ten in the loss column) is way too much of a hurdle to overcome in just 28 games. However, Mets fans are the same fans that have seen a team collapse with a seven game lead with 17 games left in the season. With that, Mets fans learned that anything is possible.
For the Mets to win the National League East, a lot of things have to break the right way. With the Mets having six head-to-head matchups, the Mets have a real opportunity to become a factor in the National League East race. If the Mets sweep both series, similar to how they did last August, that 9.5 game deficit becomes a much more manageable 3.5 game deficit (four in the loss column). When viewed through that prism, a 3.5 game deficit is certainly one that can be overcome with 22 games left on the schedule.
It becomes more of a debate if the Mets are only capable of taking four out of the six from the Nationals. In that case, the Mets would the be eight games back in the loss column with 22 games remaining on the schedule. Again, better odds than the seven in 17 route.
In those remaining 22 games, the Mets have 19 games against teams with losing records. Six of those are against a Braves team who are on pace to lose 100 games. Another three are against a Twins team who is also on pace to lose 100 games. Factor in another three games against the Reds who are on pace to lose more than 90 games that’s 12 games against teams that will lose over 90 games this season.
The other team team with a losing record left on the Mets schedule is the Phillies. The Mets have gone 20-9 against the Phillies since the start of the 2015 season. That means the Mets are primed to make up some ground with seven games remaining against the Phillies.
Other than the Nationals, the only team with a winning record on the Mets schedule is the very same Miami Marlins team the Mets just beat three out of four times.
Unfortunately, the Nationals have a very similar schedule to the Mets for the rest of the season. That means if the Mets are going to win the National League East, they are not only going to have to take full advantage of their head-to-head games against the Nationals, and they are going to have to beat up on a really weak September schedule.
The chances of that happening? As we all know, it’s not very good. Fangraphs puts the Mets odds of winning the division at 0.2%. Baseball Prospectus is more optimistic putting the Mets chances at 0.4%. As Lloyd Christmas would say, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance. YEAH!”
In reality, the Mets best chance of returning to the postseason is to get one of the two Wild Card spots. With that said, for a fanbase that saw a seven game lead with 17 games left in the seasons vanish into thin air, we all know no September lead is insurmountable. The Mets have their chance to do the impossible starting tonight with a three game set against the Nationals.
Like last year, the Mets acquired Addison Reed right before the August 31st trade deadline. He quickly assumed the seventh inning role for a pennant winner last year. This year, he has taken over the eighth inning, and he has been as good a setup man as there is in baseball.
The problem is Reed and most of the Mets bullpen is fatigued. With that in mind, enter Fernando Salas.
Salas mostly relies on his fastball, change up, and a knuckle curveball. He has a slider he uses very infrequently, but when he does throw it, it has proven to be an effective pitch. Given the pitching philosophy of his new team and pitching coach, that may change.
Like Reed last year, Salas has struggled for the most part this year. For the season, Salas has a 4.47 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, and a 7.2 K/9. Each of these stats are among the worst in his career.
However, it should be noted Salas has pitched much better of late. After a nightmare June and a bad July, he’s a much better pitcher in August. Batters are only hitting .211/.286/.368 against him this month. He had a 3.48 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. It’s part of the reason he had taken over as the Angels closer.
For what it’s worth, his postseason numbers are a mixed bag. In his postseason career, he is 0-1 with a 3.54 ERA and a 0.984 WHIP in 18 games. Those stats are actually elevated as he had one bad inning in the 2011 World Series. Speaking of the 2011 World Series, Salas does bring championship experience.
Overall, Salas is a pitcher who should help the Mets. He should give pitchers like Reed rest, and before the season is over, he may very well lock down the seventh inning.
In exchange for Salas, the Mets gave up Erik Manoah. The Mets 2014 13th round pick certainly has promise. He has the ability to get his fastball up to the mid-nineties with a developing curveball and change up. Perhaps as important, he has excellent control.
Still, Manoah has a 5.84 ERA for his minor league career. It’s possible the Angels unlock something, and the Mets will rue the day they traded Manoah.
However, Manoah is far from a guarantee. It might be more likely that Salas is the pitcher who makes the necessary adjustments and makes more improvements. Its why the Mets were right to make the deal.
Neil Walker came to the Mets because his hometown team, the team that drafted him, no longer wanted him. They felt they would be better off allocating his salary elsewhere. Worse yet, he was sent away a few weeks before Christmas.
Instead of wallowing in self pity, he came to New York almost immediately. He would serve as an elf at the Mets Holiday Party. He would work with Kevin Long to both maximize his power while becoming a much better right-handed hitter.
Walker jumped out of the gate in April hitting nine homers while becoming a key cog in the Mets offense.
After April, he would slump badly. He was near an automatic out at the plate. Throughout this time, he never complained. He didn’t blame his bad back that flared up on him in June. Instead, he kept grinding, and he actually played some of the best defense in his career.
Between the All Star Break and Terry Collins giving him some days off, Walker was rejuvenated. August was shaping to be his best month of the season, if not his career, with him hitting .389/.450/.667 with two doubles, six homers, and 10 RBI. Then disaster struck.
Walker is going to need season ending surgery because he has a herniated disc in his back. He kept insisting he could play, but eventually it became apparent he couldn’t. Hopefully, he has successful surgery, and he can get back to being the player he was.
With that, Walker’s season is over. He’s not going to be able to help his team go the postseason. There will be no October heroics for him.
Worse yet for him, the new dad is about to become a free agent. He should have been able to cash in on what could be considered the best year of his career. Instead, he enters the offseason not just with uncertainty about just how much money he’s lost on the free agent market, but also how this back injury will affect his career.
By all accounts, Walker was a good guy who played his tail off this year. He played through pain, and he did all he could do to help his team win. Instead of being rewarded for all of this, he’s going to have to sit and wonder what might’ve been.
It’s a shame, and Walker deserved a better fate than that.
For an organization known for its pitching, it should come as no surprise that the Mets have had their fair share of good closers. What may come as a surprise is that Jeurys Familia might just become better than them all.
The Mets first notable closer was Tug McGraw. His contributions extend well past his coining the phrase “Ya Gotta Believe!” Up until the 80’s, in a time when managers began to pitch to the save rule, McGraw was the Mets all-time leader with 86 saves. He is also the only Mets to be a closer to for a team that won a World Series and a Pennant. In 1969, he shared closing duties with Ron Taylor. In 1973, he was not only the man, but in many ways, the vocal leader of the team. The only record McGraw has remaining in the record books is most innings pitched by a Mets reliever with 792.2 innings over his nine year Mets career.
The next Mets closer to appear in multiple postseasons was Jesse Orosco. When discussing Orosco, there are always three things you need to mention: (1) he was part of the return the Mets received when they traded Jerry Koosman to the Twins; (2) Keith Hernandez warned him not to throw a fastball to Kevin Bass (he didn’t); and (3) his glove has still not landed. After his eight year career was over, Orosco was both the Mets all-time leader in saves (107) and the Mets single season saves leader (31 in 1984). To this day, he remains the only Mets closer to save a World series clinching game.
Orosco would eventually be surpassed by John Franco on both the saves list and the Mets all-time saves list. Somewhat ironically, Franco’s entrance song was Johnny B. Goode as his ninth inning appearances were always a high wire act. Still, throughout all of it, Franco has more saves by any left-handed closer in history with 424, and when he retired he was third on the all-time list trailing only Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman. Franco recorded 276 of those saves with the Mets. His 276 saves are the Mets record by a fairly wide margin.
In fact, Franco leads Armando Benitez by 116 saves on the Mets all-time list. Coincidentally, Benitez is the man who replaced Franco as the Mets closer in 1999. With the Mets having made consecutive postseason appearances in 1999 and 2000, Benitez remains the only Mets closer to pitch in consecutive postseasons. While Mets fans loved to hate him, Benitez did show flashes of complete and utter dominance. As of right now, his 43 saves in 2001 still remains the Mets single season record.
However, that record is in jeopardy. Last year, Jeurys Familia, in his first season as the Mets closer, tied Benitez’s single season record. This year, he has tied it again en route to him most likely breaking the tie with Benitez. With Familia having saved 43 games for consecutive seasons, he has already set the mark for most saves by a Mets closer in consecutive seasons. Even with Familia only having been the Mets closer for one plus seasons, he now ranks fifth all-time with 92 saves as a Met. With 16 more saves, he will jump both Orosco and Billy Wagner to put him third all-time.
If the Mets current charge continues, he could join Benitez as the only Mets closer to appear in back-to-back postseasons. If the Mets get into the postseason, anything is possible including seeing Familia join Orosco as the only Mets pitcher to earn a save to close out the World Series.
That’s just the thing with Familia. He’s already a great closer, and he’s already writing his name all over the Mets record books. As long as he is the Mets closer, anything is possible. It’s also possible that we could be watching the best closer in Mets history.
As we have seen with David Wright some injuries are more than just baseball injuries. Some injuries have long lasting effects, and they affect your quality of life away from the game. You want these players to recover not just because you want to see them back on the field, you want to see them recover because you don’t want to see someone suffer.
That may be where we are now with Neil Walker.
Walker has apparently been dealing with a back issue since his day with the Pirates. It flared up in June, and it has flared up again. Only this time, his back problem has apparently gotten worse – much worse.
Despite the Mets being in the thick of the Wild Card race, Walker has been unable to play since Saturday. Coming into last night’s game, the Mets have announced Walker can no longer play every day. Worse yet, he has tingling in his back which is affecting his legs. There are even more dire reports suggesting Walker is experiencing tingling on one side of his body. It’s at the point now where the Mets wonder aloud about whether Walker’s season is over. Terry Collins put it succinctly when he said, “There’s a lot of concern.” (mlb.com)
Right now, the plan is for Walker to get a second opinion to see if he really can play. Because they’re the Mets, and they have all their injured player’s play, the team still intends to have Walker play through the pain. Given the Mets recent history with back injuries, Wright and Lucas Duda, it’s hard to feel optimistic about Walker’s chances of not just being able to play, but also being able to contribute this season.
No matter what happens, Walker has to do what is right for him and his family. While the Mets need his bat in the lineup for the stretch run, no one wants to see him befall what has befallen Wright over the past couple of years.