Mets Should Not Pursue Tarik Skubal
If this was 2024, the New York Mets should have given everything they had to get Tarik Skubal. He is the best pitcher in the game, and when the best pitcher in the game potentially becomes available, you do all you can to go out and get him.
Short of Nolan McLean, there should not be one untouchable for the Mets in a pursuit of Skubal. He could be what Mike Hampton and Johan Santana were. He’s the left-handed ace that puts the Mets in position to make the postseason (yes, I know the 2008 Mets collapsed, but Santana was brilliant in Game 161).
That all said, the way the Mets have operated this offseason, there is no way this team should pursue Skubal. It would be a massive mistake.
Since taking over as the President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns has been restrained in handing out long-term deals. So far, the longest contract he has handed out to a pitcher has been the three year deal given to Sean Manaea.
Take Juan Soto out of the equation. He was a once in a generation free agent, and he was someone whose contract was handled at the ownership level in conjunction with Stearns. Soto was an outlier and should be treated as such.
Taking Soto out of the equation, Stearns has not handed out one contract longer than three years. Most of the deals have been two years with a player option.
Stearns holding to three years has been impacting the Mets this offseason. Pete Alonso left for a five year deal when the Mets wouldn’t go past three. The Mets unwillingness to go to four years was a reason Edwin Diaz went to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If the Mets are stuck in that mindset trading for Skubal is a non-starter. He is going to have a prospect cost that will require you to sign Skubal to an extension. That is just not going to happen.
First and foremost, Skubal is represented by Scott Boras. Boras does not typically allow his free agents to sign an extension prior to hitting free agency. If you are going to convince Boras and his players to sign an extension, you are going to have to blow them out of the water.
Certainly, we saw with Francisco Lindor and Soto that Steve Cohen is willing to do that. However, we have also seen with Cohen he is willing to mostly sit back and let Stearns do what he wants.
That is not a criticism of Cohen. It is a strength. We see all the years other New York teams have been encumbered by ownership interference. Cohen’s willingness to open his checkbook and listen to the advice of those he employs is why we are lucky to have him running the Mets.
However, with Stearns, there are limitations. That limitation is signing marquee free agents who are not in their early prime. Looking at his entire history as a GM or president of baseball operations, Stearns is not going to give Skubal, a soon to be 29 year old pitcher who has had Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery, the 10 year deal Skubal is going to demand.
If you are not going to go all out to sign Skubal, why drain the farm system you’ve worked so hard to build? It simply doesn’t make sense.
Stearns has been inflexible not giving out more than three years. It’s at the point where they trade away five years of Brandon Nimmo for three years of Marcus Semien even if Nimmo will be the same age Semien will be when their contracts are over.
We an have the discussion over how prudent Stearns’ position has been. We can talk about how it helps or hinders the Mets. At the moment, we just have to acknowledge how that position should mean the Mets cannot pursue Skubal. ‘
Hopefully, with McLean, the Mets have the ace they need. We can envision a rotation led by McLean and buttressed by Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong. With any luck, they can do what Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard did in 2015.
Just like in 2015, that group will need a veteran leader to lead the staff. They most likely won’t have a Skubal or other pitcher of that ilk as they would command too many years.
It’s time to abandon that pipe dream . . . at least until Stearns is ready to show some flexibility in his approach in dealing with giving out contracts.