Noah Sydnergaard
If this was 2024, the New York Mets should have given everything they had to get Tarik Skubal. He is the best pitcher in the game, and when the best pitcher in the game potentially becomes available, you do all you can to go out and get him.
Short of Nolan McLean, there should not be one untouchable for the Mets in a pursuit of Skubal. He could be what Mike Hampton and Johan Santana were. He’s the left-handed ace that puts the Mets in position to make the postseason (yes, I know the 2008 Mets collapsed, but Santana was brilliant in Game 161).
That all said, the way the Mets have operated this offseason, there is no way this team should pursue Skubal. It would be a massive mistake.
Since taking over as the President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns has been restrained in handing out long-term deals. So far, the longest contract he has handed out to a pitcher has been the three year deal given to Sean Manaea.
Take Juan Soto out of the equation. He was a once in a generation free agent, and he was someone whose contract was handled at the ownership level in conjunction with Stearns. Soto was an outlier and should be treated as such.
Taking Soto out of the equation, Stearns has not handed out one contract longer than three years. Most of the deals have been two years with a player option.
Stearns holding to three years has been impacting the Mets this offseason. Pete Alonso left for a five year deal when the Mets wouldn’t go past three. The Mets unwillingness to go to four years was a reason Edwin Diaz went to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If the Mets are stuck in that mindset trading for Skubal is a non-starter. He is going to have a prospect cost that will require you to sign Skubal to an extension. That is just not going to happen.
First and foremost, Skubal is represented by Scott Boras. Boras does not typically allow his free agents to sign an extension prior to hitting free agency. If you are going to convince Boras and his players to sign an extension, you are going to have to blow them out of the water.
Certainly, we saw with Francisco Lindor and Soto that Steve Cohen is willing to do that. However, we have also seen with Cohen he is willing to mostly sit back and let Stearns do what he wants.
That is not a criticism of Cohen. It is a strength. We see all the years other New York teams have been encumbered by ownership interference. Cohen’s willingness to open his checkbook and listen to the advice of those he employs is why we are lucky to have him running the Mets.
However, with Stearns, there are limitations. That limitation is signing marquee free agents who are not in their early prime. Looking at his entire history as a GM or president of baseball operations, Stearns is not going to give Skubal, a soon to be 29 year old pitcher who has had Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery, the 10 year deal Skubal is going to demand.
If you are not going to go all out to sign Skubal, why drain the farm system you’ve worked so hard to build? It simply doesn’t make sense.
Stearns has been inflexible not giving out more than three years. It’s at the point where they trade away five years of Brandon Nimmo for three years of Marcus Semien even if Nimmo will be the same age Semien will be when their contracts are over.
We an have the discussion over how prudent Stearns’ position has been. We can talk about how it helps or hinders the Mets. At the moment, we just have to acknowledge how that position should mean the Mets cannot pursue Skubal. ‘
Hopefully, with McLean, the Mets have the ace they need. We can envision a rotation led by McLean and buttressed by Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong. With any luck, they can do what Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard did in 2015.
Just like in 2015, that group will need a veteran leader to lead the staff. They most likely won’t have a Skubal or other pitcher of that ilk as they would command too many years.
It’s time to abandon that pipe dream . . . at least until Stearns is ready to show some flexibility in his approach in dealing with giving out contracts.
The concern with Noah Syndergaard having Tommy John surgery isn’t just his being gone for the 2020 season and a significant portion of the 2021 season. The larger problem from a Mets perspective is this team has not had the best history with Tommy John surgeries and rehabilitation.
Jeremy Hefner
The Mets don’t have to look any further than their pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Back in 2013, he was putting together a promising campaign when it was discovered he had a torn UCL. During his rehab from Tommy John, things were not going well, and it was discovered he would need to undergo a second surgery. He would only pitch one season in the minors after that before retiring.
Matt Harvey
Hefner was rehabbing at the same time as Matt Harvey. When it was discovered Hefner needed the second surgery, the Mets had eased the throttle off of Harvey who was pushing to pitch in 2014. In 2015, despite agreements on his innings limit, the Mets reneged and pushed him to pitch, and Harvey would throw more innings than anyone in the history of baseball after their Tommy John surgery.
In 2016, he was just not good with everyone trying to figure out what was wrong with him. It took a while to discover he had Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Despite noticeable muscle atrophy, the Mets pitched him in 2017 leading to a stress reaction. Really, that was all but it for him as a Met and possibly his career. The big unknown is how the Mets handling of him affected his shoulder and/or aggravated or caused the TOS.
Bobby Parnell
Harvey would not be the only Mets pitcher to return in 2015 from Tommy John. The other notable pitcher to return was Bobby Parnell. After discovering a torn UCL the day after the 2014 Opening Day, Parnell underwent the surgery. A year later, a Mets team hoping to stay in the pennant race activated him well before the end of the 18 month rehabilitation period. Parnell didn’t have his fastball, and his command was shot. By the middle of August, he had pitched to a 6.38 ERA before being put on the DL with arm fatigue. He’d only pitch 5.1 Major League innings after this season.
Zack Wheeler
While Parnell was someone whose injury was discovered a day into the 2014 season, Zack Wheeler‘s torn UCL was discovered on the eve of the 2015 season. Wheeler had surgery, and he was slated to return in the middle of the 2016 season to help the Mets return to the postseason. During his rehab, he’d have issues with his stitches, and he would suffer a flexor strain when he was finally able to step on a mound again.
He wasn’t able to step onto a Major League mound again until April 2017, and he would have to be shut down that season due to a stress reaction in his right arm. Really, Wheeler wasn’t right until the 2018 season, which was three years after the first surgery.
Steven Matz
A Mets pitcher having this level of difficulty in their Tommy John rehab is not anything new. In fact, that was exactly the case with Steven Matz when he was in the minor leagues. After being drafted in 2009, it was discovered he had a torn UCL, and he needed to have Tommy John surgery.
Matz really struggled with the rehabilitation, and there was a significant amount of scar tissue. At one point, they were concerned he was going to need a second Tommy John surgery. The advice was to just pitch through it. Matz would do just that finally making his professional debut in 2012. His Tommy John issues would not re-emerge until 2017 when he needed ulnar nerve transposition surgery.
Jacob deGrom
When Matz underwent the surgery, he joined reliever Erik Goeddel and ace Jacob deGrom in having the surgery. With respect to Goeddel, he had Tommy John when he was in high school well before he was a member of the Mets organization. However, with respect to deGrom, he had his surgery and rehab as a member of the Mets organization.
With deGrom, he had seemingly appeared to be the one Mets pitcher who had a normal Tommy John surgery and rehabilitation. Yes, there were difficult times when he told Frank Viola he wanted to quit, but that was part of the normally grueling rehabilitation process and return. Ultimately, deGrom would become a Rookie of the Year winner, and he would introduce himself to the world with an incredible All-Star Game appearance and a postseason for the ages.
As noted with Harvey and Wheeler, Mets pitchers were dropping like flies in 2016. In addition to Harvey and Wheeler, Matz went down with a massive bone spur. It was then discovered during a pennant race, deGrom needed the ulnar transposition surgery. As we have seen, the surgery went well, and after a pedestrian 2018 season (by his standards), he has returned to be the best pitcher in baseball.
Keep in mind, the Mets checkered Tommy John history isn’t just recent. Jason Isringhausen would have the first of his three Tommy John surgeries with the Mets. Looking back at Generation K, he, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher would all have arm issues leading to them never pitching in the same rotation.
Position Players
The Mets haven’t had Tommy John issues with pitchers only. T.J. Rivera underwent the surgery in 2017, and he attempted to return too soon struggling in 22 at-bats. The Mets would release him, and he would play in the Atlantic Leagues for the Long Island Ducks before landing a minor league deal with the Philadephia Phillies. We will see if he can return.
Last year, we saw the Mets botch the handling of Travis d’Arnaud. Even with the team playing well with a tandem of Wilson Ramos and Tomas Nido, the team rushed d’Arnaud back to the majors before one full year of rehabilitation. He would have one of the worst games you would ever see a catcher have leading to the Mets rage cutting him.
He would first land with the Dodgers and then the Rays. Notably, he didn’t start really playing well until July, which was roughly 15 months after the surgery, which is much closer to the recommended 18 months.
This is not an extensive history, but it is a good snapshot of the struggles the Mets have had dealing with Tommy John surgeries. Perhaps, it is of no coinidence much of this has coincided with the Wilpon taking over majority control of the Mets, and as Pedro Martinez and others have noted, Jeff Wilpon’s interference with medical decision making has been a real issue.
Seeing the Tommy John problems the Mets have had, we get a better sense of why Seth Lugo was so unwilling to go through the process, and we see some of the dangers which may very well face Syndergaard as he attempts to return from the surgery before hitting free agency.
With Thanksgiving this week, we are on the eve of the Christmas season. Black Friday marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season, and with that comes time for parents to have to find time to get pictures of their children with Santa Claus. If you have time, the little Mets fan in your life many want to also get a picture with Mr. Met.
To their credit, the Mets Team Store is offering “Blue Friday” Deals offering items half-off Friday morning, 35% off in the afternoon, and 30% off the rest of the weekend. If you are down there for the deals, you can get discounts on items for your favorite players like Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jacob deGrom, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, or Noah Syndergaard. You could also be the first person on your block to get a Marcus Stroman #0 jersey or shirsey.
You can also bring your kids to get their pictures with Mr. and Mrs. Met. If you are interested, the Mets team mascots will be available at the following times:
11/30 11:00 A.M. – 1:30 P.M.
12/1 11:00 A.M. – 1:30 P.M.
12/8 11:00 A.M. – 1:30 P.M.
12/14 11:00 A.M. – 1:30 P.M.
That’s three separate weekends you can bring your kids down to meet with Mr. and Mrs. Met. Seeing them at the ballpark is always a highlight for the kids, and the free before and during the game is always fun. It should be more fun to get these photos without having to worry about getting back to the game or dealing with the the massive crowds.
Give the Mets credit here. They are doing something fun for the kids, and the photos are free. Hopefully, everyone will be able to bring their children to the ballpark for a photo, and this will become a part of everyone’s holiday traditions.