With the left-handed Julio Urias starting for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets panicked and sat most of their left-handed hitters. That meant the Mets sat their best hitters.
What’s annoying about it was Urias has reverse splits. It’s all the more annoying because players like Dominic Smith are better against left-handed pitchers than their right-handed hitters.
Well, the Mets shot themselves in the foot. Brandon Drury, Kevin Pillar, and Albert Almora combined to go 0-for-6 with one walk and two strikeouts. In defense of Almora, that walk was a great at-bat, and it began the way towards Luis Rojas substituting players into the game to undo the inane front office lineup.
The irony of the game would be the Mets didn’t do anything until the left-handed bats could themselves in the game.
Down 4-0 after a strong effort from Tylor Megill and some gaffes by James McCann, the Mets rallied starting with a Michael Conforto two out double.
The left-handed batters did their job. Smith followed with an RBI single getting the Mets on the board.
Brandon Nimmo walked (of course), and Alonso was walked to load the bases. Jeff McNeil, another LHP not in the starting lineup, hit a two run single pulling the Mets within one. That run scored on a Will Smith passed ball.
TIE BALLGAME! #LGM pic.twitter.com/H7VGrMG0RW
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 14, 2021
The bats who couldn’t be trusted to be in the starting lineup, the Mets best bats, tied the score with a big two out rally.
Edwin Diaz got into trouble in the ninth starting with his walking former Met Billy McKinney to start the inning. Diaz got out of the inning leading to more platoon based nonsense.
Now, Aaron Loup has been the Mets best reliever all year, and he was fresh pitching just once over the last week. Meanwhile, Jeurys Familia has been heavily worked lately, and he has been starting to show the strain.
Well, despite Loup’s success against right-handed batters over the past two years, and the reverse splits of Smith, the Mets opted for Familia. The end result was a tired Familia giving up a go-ahead two run homer.
The Mets did get one back in the 10th, but it wasn’t enough. They lost 6-5 in a game they severely hampered themselves by being overly beholden to 1960 platoon theory.
It’s annoying the Mets handcuffed themselves like this unnecessarily and really purposefully ran converse to the analytics. They need to be better and do better than this.
There are certain left-handed pitchers where no matter how good your left-handed batters are, you’re sitting them. Names which come up mind include Clayton Kershaw and maybe Madison Bumgarner.
Whatever your list, it’s not going to include Matt Moore. As such, when the New York Mets sit Dominic Smith against him, they’re announcing they see Smith as a platoon bat.
If that’s the case, it’s extraordinarily bad decision making, and really, it’s a poor assessment of the talent on this Mets roster.
Honestly, that is an assessment which should’ve been discounted last year. In 2021, Smith hit .283/.391/.509 against left-handed pitchers.
That wasn’t a one year anomaly either. In 2019, Smith hit .303/.361/.515 against them. Overall, since 2019, Smith has hit .291/.380/.512.
That equates to a 141 wRC+. In that time, only Brandon Nimmo, another left-handed hitter, has a better wRC+. Yes, he’s even better than Pete Alonso (126).
That means not only is Smith one of the Mets best hitters, but he’s one of their best against left-handed pitching too.
For sake of comparison, Kevin Pillar, who started over Smith, has a 119 wRC+. Albert Almora‘s is a woeful 40. All told, while Pillar is good, he’s not better than Smith.
Now, you can argue this is too much of a reaction to just one game. After all, Pillar is going to have to get into games. There are also other factors like his defense why you’d play him.
That said, this was the Mets first game. There was literally no other competing objective than put your best team on the field. That makes their first game a clear indication they believe Pillar is a better player against left-handed pitching than Smith.
That puts Smith in a platoon role where he sits against left-handed pitching. With Smith being one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching, they’re flat out wrong and making a mistake.
Smith is an everyday player. In fact, he’s clearly one of their best, and there’s no reason why he isn’t playing everyday.
Since cracking the Opening Day roster in 2014, Travis d’Arnaud has averaged 90 games per season behind the plate with last year being his high at 112 games. This is because d’Arnaud has not withstood to the day-to-day rigors of catching. Each and every year, he deals with a different injury to another part of his body, and as a result, the Mets have been left scrambling to figure out their Major League catching depth.
With the re-emergence of Kevin Plawecki as the Mets catcher of the future and the minor league signing of Jose Lobaton, the Mets are in a much better position from a catching standpoint than they have been in years past. While the Mets have better depth, the end game should be to keep d’Arnaud healthy for a full season.
And for that matter, with Plawecki finally showing the type of bat the Mets believed he had, the team needs to find a spot for him in the lineup.
To that end, a platoon between the catchers makes sense. Fortunately, both catchers seem inclined to go forward with the plan, and they both thrived under the situation last September with d’Arnaud hitting .297/.343/.656 in 20 games and Plawecki hitting .278/.400/.426 in 19 games.
So based upon their production in an admittedly small sample size, we know it could potentially work. What we don’t know is how it should work next season, especially when you consider both are right-handed hitters.
Perhaps, the Mets should approach this from a different perspective. Instead of focusing on what pitcher is on the mound for the opposing team, the Mets should focus on what pitcher is on the mound for their own team. That is, much like what we saw in 2016 with Noah Syndergaard and Rene Rivera, assign a catcher to a Mets starter based upon whom the pitcher works best.
When you look at the numbers, what is quite startling is just how much better the Mets starters numbers are with Plawecki behind the plate. There is a very important caveat to that. Plawecki did the bulk of the catching of these pitchers back in 2015 when they were all healthy and dealing. It was d’Arnaud who had to deal with each one of them having real injury issues which corresponded with diminished stuff and stats.
Basically, this will come down to comfort, and for starters, we know that likely means Plawecki will be catching Syndergaard because as we saw in 2016, he and d’Arnaud have had difficulty getting on the same page. As an aside, it was somewhat telling Syndergaard was caught by Plawecki and Tomas Nido in his two “starts” at the end of the season.
Coincidence or not, there may be something to Plawecki not catching Jacob deGrom at all last season. Given their track record together, which includes deGrom winning the 2014 Rookie of the Year Award and his amazing 2015 postseason, or their both having lower case ds in their last name, there is a rapport between deGrom and d’Arnaud which should continue.
Likely, you want to get each of the catchers 2-3 days in a row when they do play in order to afford them to maximizing rest and getting in rhythm. To that end, d’Arnaud should catch deGrom with the fourth and fifth starter, whoever they may be. This would set up this type of rotation:
- Jacob deGrom (d’Arnaud)
- Noah Syndergaard (Plawecki)
- Jason Vargas (Plawecki)
- Matt Harvey (d’Arnaud)
- Steven Matz (d’Arnaud)
Really, after deGrom and Syndergaard, you can order the pitchers anyway you want, and you can certainly resort them depending on which catcher and pitcher feel most comfortable as a tandem. In the end, what really matters is Mickey Callaway, Dave Eiland, and Glenn Sherlock communicate with the starters and catching tandem to find the best fit for each pitcher. If done properly, we may see the catchers last a full season, and more importantly, we could see the pitching staff as a whole revert to their 2015 level.
As I wrote in my last post, the Mets have a lot of versatility. After thinking about it, I noticed something:
2B: Kelly Johnson (L) & Wilmer Flores (R)
3B: Daniel Murphy (L) & Juan Uribe (R)
CF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) & Juan Lagares (R)
This is the making of the perfect platoon situation. Last night the lefties played against the right handed Zach Lee. The aforementioned lefties were in the lineup. Once the game was out of control, the better defensive players were the Juans who came out onto the field (can’t wait to use that pun again).
I believe Collins will look to ride the hot hand more than he’ll look to platoon players. However, when the Mets have faced lefties this year, he has loaded the lineup with right handed batters. I think the platoon system is the prudent way to go that unless/until the Mets get reinforcements (trades, players returning from injury).
Remember, the only two times the Mets won the Workd Series, they effectively used a platoon system.
It needs to be reiterated that the New York Mets need to send Mark Vientos back to Triple-A Syracuse. It’s readily apparent Buck Showalter has no intention of playing him.
Since Vientos was recalled, he has started in just nine out of a possible 18 games. He’s only played in the field three times. He came to the Mets red hot at the plate improving defensively (he’s still a bad fielder), and now, he’s not allowed to hit or field.
In September, you understand. Like last season, it’s about exposure and just getting your best guys on the roster to try to take your team over the top. However, it’s June.
Young players aren’t helped by sitting. They need reps to improve, or at the very least, show what they need to work on to ge able to play at the Major League level. Again, Vientos isn’t playing.
This is exacerbated by the fact the Mets are playing two people over Vientos who simply cannot be in the everyday lineup right now.
Daniel Vogelbach has become a DH who can’t hit. He’s been horrid for over a month now. On the season, he is down to a 93 wRC+. To put that in perspective, on May 14, he had a 132 wRC+.
Vogelbach is only making $1.5 million. There is team control though next season, but what’s the point when the 30 year old platoon DH can’t hit anymore.
Showalter won’t stop playing him. The only way to stop it is to DFA Vogelbach.
Now, Brett Baty is a more difficult call. He is a well regarded young player who did surpass Vientos as the third baseman of the future. That said, there are extremely troubling trends.
Baty’s ground ball rate is up to 49.5%. He’s hit onto more double plays (4) than he’s hit homers (3). He can’t hit a breaking ball at the moment (39.3 WHIFF%).
Teams are now exploiting that with Baty striking out in 41.2% of his plate appearances since May 25. Overall, Baty is down to a 90 wRC+, and there aren’t any signs that number will improve anytime soon.
It’s getting increasingly difficult to argue Baty should be in the majors instead of Triple-A. In fact, Baty belongs in Syracuse now. He’s regressing, and he’s at the point where he needs too much work.
There is no reason to play Baty over Vientos now. Vientos isn’t anywhere near the defender, but he could be working with Joey Cora to improve and become more playable.
Mostly, the Mets can give him a chance. Maybe he succeeds. Maybe he fails. Whatever the case, he has upside and promise. At the very least, he couldn’t possibly be worse than Baty or Vogelbach have been.
With Omar Narváez set to come off the IL, the New York Mets were going to have to make a move., While it seemed like sending Mark Vientos down was the obvious move since he’s not playing, the Mets instead opted to designate Tomás Nido for assignment.
On the surface, it makes sense. After all, Francisco Álvarez has played so well the Mets were not going to send him back down to Triple-A Syracuse. As such, Narváez is really just taking over Nido’s spot on the roster. However, that is such a grossly over simplistic view it needs to be disregarded outright.
With the catching situation, the first caveat is Álvarez has not caught more than 81 games in a season. That presents a challenge for the Mets to get him through a full season healthy and without mental or physical fatigue. As a result, the team will have to look to buy Álvarez time here or there.
Honestly, that is something the Mets did with Álvarez in Syracuse by having him DH on occasion. It’s at least one of the reasons why the Mets assigned three catchers to Triple-A Syracuse to start the season.
However, for that to work, Buck Showalter has to show a willingness to DH one of his catchers. You can hear him saying you can’t take the risk of a catcher getting injured and having your team lose the DH for the game. More to the point, Showalter very infrequently did it with Matt Wieters. Going through each of his stops, it is something he would do far less than 20 times a season.
Put another way, the odds are Álvarez isn’t going to DH. In fact, so far this season, we have not seen Álvarez DH in any games.
Instead, we are likely going to see Daniel Vogelbach be the primary DH for the Mets. Anytime there is a right-handed pitcher, we should expect to see Vogelbach. That is the case even with Vogelbach hitting Vogelbach is hitting .158/.284/.246 since May 3. On the season, Vogelbach has a 99 wRC+. In essence, he’s a below average hitter at a position where the only job is to hit.
Now, those Vogelbach at-bats could have gone to Álvarez on the days he’s not catching. Again, Álvarez will need time off here and there. Also, we should not expect Showalter to just allow Álvarez to get the vast majority of starts over Narváez.
Remember, this is the same Showalter who continues to bat Álvarez ninth and is still somewhat of the belief Álvarez is a platoon bat. That is to say the left-handed hitting Narváez is going to get his starts and his plate appearances. Showalter’s default is to appease the veterans. That should lead us to see more Narváez than we originally contemplated.
Again, this could have been a good thing because it would permit Álvarez to DH. However, that role isn’t open with Vogelbach still on the team. The odds of Showalter doing it without Nido as a third catcher are diminished. Because of the totality of the circumstances, we see the Mets opted to DH Vogelbach over creating more opportunities to have Álvarez in the lineup.
There is just so much to talk about with the New York Mets at the moment. On the good, we have Pete Alonso on pace for 60 home runs, and Francisco Álvarez increasingly looks like a lock for the National League Rookie of the Year.
The rotation is all over the place. At least, we know Kodai Senga can pitch at home. Max Scherzer appears to have turned a corner, and we will just have to see from there.
Buck Showalter can’t seem to help himself. He threw Mark Vientos into a platoon for no good reason. Daniel Vogelbach looks done, and Tommy Pham may just be pushing past Vogelbach as the player to keep.
While the focus is everywhere and anywhere, we all seem to overlook just how good of a season Brandon Nimmo is having. Nimmo was out there in the last game to remind us how good and important he is:
Another phenomenal play from Brandon Nimmo in CF. pic.twitter.com/Nx83lPEDtB
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) May 31, 2023
Nimmo made yet another great defensive play in center. That play was important too because his robbing Nick Castellanos of a home run kept the game tied at zero in what would eventually be a 2-0 Mets win. Considering it was a deep dive to left for Castellanos, we probably also avoided something horrible happening.
Defensively, Nimmo has been very good for a few seasons now. This year, Nimmo has a 2 OAA which ranks sixth in the National League. Since the start of last season, Nimmo has a 6 OAA which rates him as the sixth best in the National League.
Offensively, Nimmo has a 134 wRC+. That rates as the 33rd best in all of baseball. Among center fielders, Nimmo behind just Aaron Judge and Mike Trout. Of course, Nimmo rates ahead of both of them defensively. He’s also much closer to them as an overall player as you may think.
Nimmo’s 2.0 fWAR trails Judge’s 2.9, but it is ahead of Trout’s 1.9. Like with wRC+, they are the top three center fielders in the game. Overall, Nimmo’s 2.0 fWAR is tied for 14th overall. That rates him as the fourth best NL outfielder. That should mean he’s an All-Star, but every year, he just seems to get overlooked.
In terms of bWAR, Nimmo’s 1.7 is second on the New York Mets only to Alonso. It rates him as 34th overall and 15th among outfielders. He’s eighth among center fielders and third among NL center fielders.
Overall, Nimmo is having another great year, and he should be an All-Star for the first time in his career. Of course, he may not be as people tend to overlook all the great things he does. After all, with everything going on with the Mets, we tend to have our focus in other directions even if we need to take time to acknowledge Nimmo.