Zack Wheeler
The 2015 season was great for the New York Mets but a trying one for Zack Wheeler. It was never supposed to be that way.
At the end of the 2014 season, Wheeler was terrific. From June 30 to September 7, he was 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA. In the second half, he was 6-3 with a 3.04 ERA.
That was supposed to be his springboard to a true breakout 2015 season. He was supposed to join reigning Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom and a returning from Tommy John Matt Harvey to form a super rotation.
Except it didn’t work out that way. Wheeler succumbed to a torn UCL in Spring Training. He was eventually supplanted by Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz in the young rotation designed to turn the Mets into World Series contenders.
He was replaced and nearly traded. He and Wilmer Flores were nearly traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. If not for Carlos Gomez’s medicals, Wheeler’s story with the Mets ends there.
While we saw Flores crying, Wheeler was trying to intercede with Sandy Alderson. Given the interest in him and the Mets needs, it’s possible his efforts were the reason he was not traded.
However, that was the days of the Wilpon Mets. Embarrassment and nonsense were sure to follow. Mostly, needless pettiness did.
Wheeler wanted to be a part of that 2015 pennant run. This was his team. He was (once) part of the foundation. Only, the Wilpons didn’t want him there.
Seems like just yesterday the Mets were telling Zack Wheeler to buy his own tickets if he wanted to attend the 2015 postseason games.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) October 19, 2022
Of course, the Wilpons were that cheap. Even their own players had to purchase tickets to see postseason games. After all, these were the owners duped in a Ponzi Scheme and were continuously over leveraging themselves in a desperate attempt to keep the team.
Things were so bad they were a part of Amway. Amway.
Things would get worse for Wheeler. His Tommy John rehab was a nightmare requiring additional surgeries. He would not return until 2017. That season was cut short with bicep tendinitis and a stress fracture in his humerus.
It would not be until the second half or the 2018 season that we finally saw Wheeler fulfill his potential. He was dazzling going 9-1 with a 1.68 ERA.
With him cane hopes for a Mets quick resurgence. Again, the Wilpons are cheap and dumb. They hired an agent who showed no regard for the Mets future or really any clue as to what he was doing.
He tried to sell Marcus Stroman as his replacement. It was a complete farce to replace Wheeler with someone in the same rotation. It’s the Amway of building rotations.
Wheeler wanted to return and was willing to take less. Perhaps, he didn’t purchase enough postseason tickets because the Wilpons were not willing or able to bring him back at a discount.
Rather than be gracious, Brodie Van Wagenen took unnecessary shots at Wheeker. All Wheeler ever wanted was to be a Met, and Van Wagenen wanted no part in that. That goes double for the Wilpons.
Well, the end result was Wheeler with the Philadelphia Phillies. He was the ace he was with the Mets only to be recognized as such now.
He found himself in the postseason and has pitched great. He’s pitched the Phillies to a pennant. This time, he had a front row seat. He was paid to be there and not the other way around.
Wheeler wanted to fully experience this with the Mets. The Wilpons didn’t want that.
Well, Jeff Wilpon is out of baseball. Their GM is now an agent again. Fred Wilpon sold away almost all of his team. Wheeler is pitching for a pennant winner.
Wheeler deserves this moment. Hopefully, he cherishes it and the bit of irony he’s celebrating it with Syndergaard. Congratulations to them both.
The Philadelphia Phillies won Game 1 of the NLCS against the San Diego Padres. They’re now three games away from the World Series.
This is as unexpected a run as you could imagine. First and foremost, one year ago, the Phillies would not be in the postseason. However, with the expansion of the postseason under the new CBA, the Phillies made it, and they’ve made the most of their opportunity.
They also took full advantage of the opportunities presented to them by Brodie Van Wagenen’s ineptitude.
When Van Wagenen was hired by the Mets, Bryce Harper was hitting free agency. Due to a multitude of factors, his market wasn’t as bullish as it nearly should’ve been.
Harper was always complimentary of the Mets pitching staff. He was a player who wanted a large market, and he liked what the Mets had. He could have been a missing piece which took them to another level.
Instead, Van Wagenen opted to trade for his former client Robinson Canó. He fulfilled his client’s wishes and brought him back to New York.
Cano came with a $24 million AAV. For the Mets, that was $20.25 million. Harper signed with the Phillies for a $25 million AAV. In terms of overall AAV, Harper was only making one million more per season.
Now, Harper wasn’t a guarantee for the Mets, especially with the Wilpons. However, this illustrates how the Mets opted to allocate their money.
Cano had a second PED suspension last year while Harper was the NL MVP. This year, Harper was an all-star while Cano was playing his way out of the league. Harper homered in Game 1 of the NLCS giving Zack Wheeler all the run support he needed.
Wheeler was very good with the Mets in his final few seasons. He was poised to be the steal of the 2019-2020 offseason. Of course, Van Wagenen thought differently.
He thought Wheeler only had two good halves with the Mets. His player valuation model which said to get Cano determined Wheeler was going to be overpaid.
Somehow, instead, Van Wagenen thought the Mets were better off with Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. He was completely alone in that line of thinking.
Wheeler turned down more lucrative offers to stay local. He wanted to be a Met. He settled on the Phillies at a discount. The Mets just walked away from Wheeler to purposefully get worse.
Since that time, Wheeler was a Cy Young runner up last season, and he was in the top 12 a year before that. He was a first time all-star.
He also won Game 1 of the NLCS pitching seven shutout innings. He has a 1.40 ERA this postseason. He’s doing it all for the Phillies because Van Wagenen didn’t want him.
Harper and Wheeler led the Phillies to the postseason, and they led them to a Game 1 victory. Both are Phillies because Van Wagenen didn’t want them. That goes double for Wheeler
The Mets loss is the Phillies gain. The good news is the Mets have Steve Cohen now instead of the Wilpons and Van Wagenen. This situation will not happen again, and even if it were to happen, the Mets would have a lot more than Porcello and Wacha to show for it.
We know Zack Wheeler is an ace, and we’re getting the sense Tylor Megill can get there. Tonight, they were on the same level, and truth be told, Megill was better.
Wheeler started out shaky plunking two and walking one to load the bases. However, he’d get out of it by striking out Robinson Cano.
Now, Wheeler got out of that inning unscathed, but it was a heavy toll. He settled in blowing through the Mets until he faced Brandon Nimmo to lead-off the fifth:
👋 GONE! @You_Found_Nimmo pic.twitter.com/856yHGqhon
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2022
Wheeler was done after that, and we would walk off the mound on the losing side of the ledger. That’s because Megill out-pitched him.
Aside from a first inning double from J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies never really got to him. Megill pitched 5.1 brilliant scoreless innings striking out five and walking none.
He was lifted for Chasen Shreve, who did his job getting out of the inning unscathed. After getting Bryce Harper to lead-off the seventh, Drew Smith was greeted by Nick Castellanos with a double.
Smith worked around this double, and he’d pitch 1.2 scoreless as a perfect bridge to Edwin Diaz. Buck Showalter‘s pushing Smith needs to be questioned, especially with Smith’s injury history, but for tonight, it worked.
Diaz would have a two run lead in the ninth because the Mets got an insurance run in the eighth. After doing absolutely nothing against the Phillies bullpen, Nimmo drew a lead-off walk.
Nimmo was erased off the basepaths after a Starling Marte fielder’s choice. Marte got that base back after recording his first steal with the Mets. Francisco Lindor expanded the Mets lead to 2-0 after his RBI single.
Let's go! @Lindor12BC pic.twitter.com/nkb26hdt9h
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2022
Diaz did the job in the ninth to record his first save of the season. It got a little dicey after the Realmuto one out single, but Diaz struck out Harper.
Lindor made a phenomenal grab of a Castellanos hard hit ball, but Realmuto beat the throw. Rhys Hoskins was overmatched and struck out to end the game.
It was a big moment for a Mets team who blew leads in the eighth inning in consecutive games. The Mets now have a rubber game tomorrow looking to win consecutive road series before their home opener.
Game Notes: Phillies again went with the 6:40 start time. Cano was 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Mets had three hits to the Phillies five.
It’s Opening Day, so it is time to make some predictions (sure to be wrong) about the 2022 season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East – Toronto Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays have the biggest home field advantage with Canada’s vaccine rules. Opponents will be missing key players whenever they visit. For example, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole.
AL Central – Minnesota Twins
The Chicago White Sox might be better full strength, but losing Lance Lynn is a huge blow. The Twins also made some huge moves adding Carlos Correa, who is among the best in baseball, and they bolstered the rotation with Sonny Gray. With some health from Byron Buxton, they’ll be unstoppable.
AL West – Los Angeles Angels
With Noah Syndergaard, the Angels finally got that big top of the rotation starter, and they addressed the pen adding Aaron Loup. Oh, and by the way, they have the two best players in all of baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
AL Wild Card 1 – Tampa Bay Rays – They’re the Rays. They do this better than everyone, and they will have a full season of Wander Franco and Josh Lowe.
AL Wild Card 2 – Chicago White Sox – Even with the loss of Lynn, there is still more than enough there to get this team back to the postseason.
AL Wild Card 3 – Houston Astros – Many seem to be downplaying the loss of Correa, but in the end, that division appears to be so weak, especially with the Athletics stripping down, they can still make the postseason.
AL MVP – Mike Trout – For those who forgot, this is still Mike Trout. With a healthy season, he’ll remind everyone there is no one better.
AL Cy Young – Alek Manoah – This is a darkhorse candidate for sure, but his spin and velocity numbers are off the charts. Also, if the Blue Jays can make Robbie Ray a Cy Young, they sure can do the same with a former first round pick.
AL Rookie of the Year – Bobby Witt Jr. – He seems the consensus pick and for good reason. He’s got the tools, and he’s playing for a team who will let him play.
AL Manager of the Year – Rocco Baldelli – This usually nothing more than an award for whose team exceeded expectations, and it will likely be the Twins this year.
National League
NL East – New York Mets
Yes, the Mets have lost Jacob deGrom, and Brandon Nimmo is battling injuries. However, this is a much improved club over the team who was atop the Atlanta Braves in the standings most of last year. Remember, that Braves team has lost Freddie Freeman, don’t have Ronald Acuna Jr.. back yet, and that bullpen which carried them was taxed.
NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals were a disappointment for much of last year, but they turned it on late. They are more analytically inclined to match that roster.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are a juggernaut, and they are just going to keep going out and finding ways and players to beat you. Keep in mind, they almost won the pennant, and they added Freeman to an already absolutely stacked roster.
NL Wild Card 1 – Milwaukee Brewers – Aside from the Mets, they have the best rotation in the National League, and that will help carry them to the postseason even in Christian Yelich is still not back to being in his MVP form.
NL Wild Card 2 – San Francisco Giants – They’ll miss Buster Posey and Kevin Gausman, but this was still a very deep team, and they have the players and organization to keep this a postseason caliber team, especially in an expanded postseason format.
NL Wild Card 3 – Philadelphia Phillies – No, the Phillies cannot catch the ball. However, they can absolutely mash, and in that ballpark, they will wear opposing staffs out. They also have the top of the rotation and manager in Joe Girardi to do enough to stay above .500 (again) to claim the last spot.
NL MVP – Francisco Lindor – We’ve seen it time and again with the Mets. The first year is the transition year. The second is the break out year. Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran were denied their MVP, but Lindor will not be this season.
NL Cy Young – Zack Wheeler – Wheeler was an unappreciated ace level pitcher when he was with the Mets, but with the Phillies, he has gotten the chance to shine. He should’ve won last year. He won’t be denied this year.
NL Rookie of the Year – Keibert Ruiz – The Nationals are going to let him play, and he has shown some signs in his brief Major League career.
NL Manager of the Year – Buck Showalter – Again, this is a narrative award, and if the Mets win the division, he is going to get it.
Postseason
Wild Card Round
Astros over Angels
White Sox over Rays
Mets over Phillies
Brewers over Giants
Divisional Round
Blue Jays over Astros
White Sox over Twins
Dodgers over Brewers
Mets over Cardinals
League Championship Series
Blue Jays over White Sox
MVP – George Springer
Mets over Dodgers
MVP – Jacob deGrom
World Series
Mets over Blue Jays
MVP – Brandon Nimmo
There were rumors Dominic Smith wasn’t going to be happy with a bench or part-time role with the New York Mets, and he wanted one elsewhere. As is typically the case, that came around the time he was almost traded. Well, Smith, himself, put those rumors to rest:
🎥 Following a weekend of pretty serious trade rumors, Dominic Smith acknowledges that while he'd love a chance to play full-time somewhere, he's happy to be in New York and happy to be a Met. pic.twitter.com/tDEJHvJjsh
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 4, 2022
Smith has long made the case he should play everyday. We are seeing it again this spring. His shoulder is healthy, and Max Scherzer noted Smith is hitting balls he hasn’t hit before in his career out for homers. Once again, Smith is poised to have a big season.
More than that, Smith is someone who wants to be a Met. In years past, that is not something which the Mets have actually valued. It is an odd thing to see loyalty and allegiance not valued or honored, but that was the way the Mets were operated under the Wilpons.
That’s not to say those values should be treated in higher regard than performance. However, the Mets have taken poor stock of a player’s drive to succeed not just in baseball but with the Mets. They overlooked skills and conditions which served as detriments to performance. Instead, of removing those obstacles, they just removed the player and later lamented why that player is thriving elsewhere.
It is something we have seen time and again. Justin Turner and his new launch angle approach became an All-Star, NLCS MVP, and World Series champion with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Wilmer Flores has been a coveted and very successful role player. The list goes on and on.
That list includes Zack Wheeler. When he and Flores were almost traded for Carlos Gomez, Wheeler went to the Mets and said he wanted to stay. He backed that up by getting healthy and improving each season. In his last season with the Mets, it was apparent he was emerging as an ace.
Wheeler went to the Philadelphia Phillies, and he arguably should have won the Cy Young award in 2021. He was that good, and he will continue to be that good as the Mets continue to try to address pitching depth in their organization. To be fair here, things are much improved under Steve Cohen.
When the Mets have a player who is on the verge of a breakout, and that player wants to be a Met, the Mets need to find a way to get that player to succeed here. Like Wheeler, Smith has. Now, the Mets need to make sure they allow him to succeed in 2022 and beyond. It is the right thing to do for someone who is going to be a very good and impactful player, and it is the right thing to do for someone committed to this franchise.
As the lockout continues, it is becoming increasingly clear this isn’t just about trying to get the best possible deal for the owners. It is also about limiting just how much Steve Cohen can use his pocketbook to try to improve the New York Mets.
As noted by Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, not only is the laughably called Competitive Balance Tax going to remain, but there is going to be another threshold added. That third threshold is supposedly going to be directed at owners who seek to “spend well above the pack.” According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, there may be a fourth tier to address this.
Make no mistake here, this is directly aimed at Cohen. This also comes on the heels of his signing Max Scherzer and Starling Marte. We also know the Mets have inquired on a number of players including Kris Bryant and Freddie Freeman. We know they are looking to add another bat and another starter. When all is said and done, the Mets payroll may very well be a Major League record.
This is something Mets fans have been waiting to see forever. The Mets play in the largest media market in the world. Now that we have the owner to do it, the other MLB teams are actively trying to get them to stop. As Heyman noted, this is directly aimed at the Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Suddenly, after a decade, MLB is concerned about the Mets payroll. This was a team which was leveraged to keep the Wilpons financially solvent, and the product on the field suffered. If the team spent like a large market team, that 2015 run could have been sustained instead of fizzling out after the 2016 season.
We also could have seen the Mets add what they really needed in 2019, and we should have seen the franchise re-sign Zack Wheeler. In many ways, what the Wilpons did led directly to Cohen spending wild this offseason. In fact, MLB being alright with a large market club artificially suppressing wages led to Cohen looking to break payroll records.
For a decade, Mets fans were absolutely cheated. They didn’t get nearly the product or team on the field they deserve, and MLB owners were laughing all the way to the bank as they got to sign the Mets free agents with little to no competition from the franchise. Now, that the Mets can return to their glory days of the 1980s is MLB stepping in to try to fix the Mets financial picture.
This is an outright insult to Mets fans, and it cannot reasonably be taken any other way, especially when Apple TV announces a lucrative deal the day after the New York Yankees were bemoaning just how much MLB is limited in trying to generate new revenue streams.
Our only hope is Cohen treats MLB the same way it treated Mets fans when they allowed the Wilpons to do to the team and the fanbase what they did. Hopefully, Cohen will be laughing all the way to the bank as we revel in multiple World Series titles. That would be the only way to make things right.
Free agency is difficult. Teams need to look not just at track records but also trajectory. Perhaps, the perfect embodiment of this is Kevin Gausman.
Before signing with the San Francisco Giants, Gausman made 154 starts with 37 relief appearances. He was 47-63 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.344 WHIP, and an 8.3 K/9.
Really, he was a below average pitcher. That was reflected in his 99 ERA+ and 4.13 FIP. It’s also reflected in his being designated for assignment by the Atlanta Braves in 2019.
To their credit, the Giants saw something in Gausman. To some extent, it was seeing his FIP and BABIP indicated he pitched better than his stats. It was also getting him to alter his pitch usage and sequencing. Gausman threw fewer fastballs and more splitters.
In the COVID shortened 2020, Gausman posted a 118 ERA+ and a 3.09 FIP. Up until that point of his career, it was his best FIP and second best ERA+ (minimum 60 innings). Much of that was driven by his strikeout rates skyrocketing from his 8.3 K/9 career mark to 11.9.
The problem was that was a shortened season. No one knew if he could do it for a full season. With that, the qualifying offer made sense for both sides.
Gausman responded with a phenomenal Cy Young caliber season. He was a real ace for a Giants team which won 107 games. In 33 starts, he was 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9.
By nearly every measure, this was a career year for the 30 year old hurler. It was his career best in wins, ERA, starts, innings, strikeouts, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, and WAR.
That’s not to say there weren’t some red flags. Gausman’s .275 BABIP and 78.4 LOB% suggests regression. Gausman was also a far better pitcher in the first half.
In the first half, Gausman had a 1.73 ERA while averaging 6.1 innings per start. In the second half, he had a 4.42 ERA while averaging 5.0 innings per start.
Now, considering no one pitched all that much in 2020, there was some drop off expected for all pitchers. After all, there was bound to be fatigue with everyone. That was most likely the cause with Gausman even though he is typically a second half pitcher.
So, here’s the issue. Gausman is turning 31, and he’s had exactly one half of a season pitching like an ace. Essentially, hex was Brodie Van Wagenen miscast Zack Wheeler to be.
Notably, Wheeler was much more than that. Gausman hasn’t been.
There’s other issues as well. The Giants are ahead of most teams on the analytical front. They also had Buster Posey behind the plate. Really, no MLB team can match that. That may go double for a team like the New York Mets.
Essentially, if you’re a team in on Gausman, you are boasting you can help him repeat some of his luck while matching the Giants front office and analytics department. You believe you can make that first half last a full season.
Look, it’s certainly possible. However, that depends on the team. The possibility turns into impossibility depending on the ultimate destination.
Overall, any team interested in Gausman needs to tread extremely carefully. This is the ultimate boom or bust singing. With pitchers like Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman still available, it’s difficult to ascertain why a team would take this risk.