Terry Collins
With the Nationals starting a left-handed pitcher in Gio Gonzalez, Terry Collins was going to start Juan Lagares no matter what. On the one hand, Collins will tell you he wants Lagares’ bat in the lineup against lefties. In reality, Collins just doesn’t trust young left-handed hitters against left-handed pitching.
With that in mind, when Collins filled out the lineup card yesterday, he had Lagares in center, Curtis Granderson in right, and Alejandro De Aza in left. Collins started De Aza despite the fact that De Aza entered the game hitting .181/.252/.276. He started De Aza despite the fact that De Aza is a career .235/.299/.350 hitter against lefties. Looking at these numbers and just how poorly De Aza has played this entire year, Collins decided to start De Aza. In a shock to no one, De Aza was 0-3 on the day in a game that the Mets lost 3-2. There is really no justification for this decision other than the unsupported notion that Nimmo can not hit lefties.
Before his call-up, Nimmo was hitting .338/.338/.500 in 74 at bats against lefties. Given these stats, it’s fair to assume that Nimmo would be a better bet to hit a lefty than De Aza would. However, Collins isn’t willing to give him the chance. He would rather hamper a player’s development and stick with a veteran who has already proved he cannot do the job. It’s the same thing Collins did last year with Michael Cuddyer and Michael Conforto.
Last year, Cuddyer was just a shell of himself. He needed core muscle surgery. He had a knee injury that plagued him all year. Through all of it, Cuddyer hit just .259/.309/.391. It was a far cry from the career .277/.344/.461 career hitter he was. Despite Cuddyer showing he no longer could play up to the level he once could, Collins decided it was better to play him against lefties than it was to play the rookie Conforto who was hitting well in the majors. Collins made this decision despite the fact that Conforto was hitting .333/.414/.490 against lefties in AA. Still, for whatever reason Collins could conjure, he determined that Conforto was not able to hit lefties at the major league level. The idea got so stuck in his head that Collins followed the same plan coming into this season.
Then suddenly it happened. Conforto was no longer able to hit left-handed pitching he had not seen in quite a while. In 2016, Conforto hit .091/.128/.091 in his 44 at bats against lefties this season. This would then become part of a greater overall issue where Conforto stopped hitting all together. The seminal moment was the time Collins actually let Conforto hit against a lefty. In true Collins’ fashion, the lefty he chose was Madison Bumgarner. Conforto would go 0-5 on the day. He then went into a prolonged slump that saw him hit .148/.217/.303 over his next 44 games. In that span, Conforto went from hitting .365/.442/.676 on the season to hitting .222/.296/.431. The Mets were all but forced to send him down to the minors and call-up the left-hand hitting Nimmo.
Sure enough, Collins is repeating the same mistakes with Nimmo as he did with Conforto. Last year, it was to get Cuddyer at bats. This year, it is to get De Aza at bats. It didn’t make sense then, and it makes less sense now.
On Opening Day 2015, Jenrry Mejia was unavailable due to an elbow injury. As a result, Terry Collins turned to Buddy Carlyle to close out the Mets 3-1 victory. Between Mejia’s elbow injury and his successive steroid suspensions, the Mets would need to turn to Jeurys Familia to become their closer. Familia wouldn’t get a chance to earn a save for about another week. In that April 12, 2015 game, Familia recorded two outs to earn his first save of the season. It would set him on a path where he has become the best closer in the game.
Since 2015, Familia has pitched 118.1 innings in 117 appearances. In those appearances, he has a 2.13 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 183 ERA+, and 72 saves. His 72 saves are second only to Mark Melancon in that time frame. However, unlike Melancon, Familia is more than a three out closer. Familia leads all closers in appearances, innings pitched, and multiple inning saves. Familia has done whatever his team has asked of him to help his team win. These are all part of what makes Familia a great closer. However, what is often overlooked is his durability. It’s his durability that truly makes him great.
We recently saw how important durability is with Wade Davis. Davis was as dominant a closer as there was in baseball. Mets fans need not look any further than the World Series for evidence of that. In the same time frame that Familia has been the Mets closer, Davis has had a 1.02 ERA and a 421 ERA+. That ERA+ is more than double that of Mariano Rivera‘s career mark of 205, which also happens to be the best in major league history. By any measure, Davis could be anointed the best closer in the game. However, he’s not in the conversation right now as he’s currently on the disabled list with a right forearm strain. As Mets fans have seen with Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, a forearm strain in your pitching arm can be an ominous sign.
As we see all the time in sports, one the most important abilities a player must have is availability. Familia has been available more than any other closer in the game, and he has pitched just as well if not better than all of them. This year he was finally recognized as such when he was named to his first All Star team. Given his durability and his ability to close out games, it will be the first of many.
It looked like more of the same for the Mets. Steven Matz allowed a first inning two run home run to Kris Bryant and a solo shot to Javier Baez in the sixth. The Mets were down 3-0 and didn’t seem to have a chance. It was the same old dreary Mets offense. In the bottom of the sixth, Yoenis Cespedes woke everyone up:
The 441 foot shot was the longest in Citi Field history and first into the Promemade Level. It was shades of Tommie Agee.
The Mets looked like a different team after that. Travis d’Arnaud got it started with a one out single off Cubs starter John Lackey. Then a minor miracle happened when Alejandro De Aza worked out a walk against Cubs reliever Joel Peralta. Then Brandon Nimmo had the at bat of the night.
Nimmo was quickly down 1-2 in the count. He would foul off three straight pitches, and he would hit an RBI single on the ninth pitch of the at bat. It narrowed the score to 3-2. He alertly moved to second when center fielder Albert Amora tried to get De Aza at third.
Joe Maddon then went to Pedro Strop to pitch to Neil Walker. Strop quickly went ahead in the count 0-2, and the Cubs pulled the infield in. Walker then hit a hooper at second baseman Baez who had no shot at getting De Aza at home. He tried to get Nimmo at third, but he threw it wild.
Nimmo then scored to make it 4-3. It was a comeback the likes of which the Mets have not made in quite a while.
In the eighth, MLB history was made when Addison Reed pitched to Addison Russell. Russell won the first ever battle of the Addisons by walking. It set up runners at first and second with two outs. Maddon sent up Jason Heyward to pinch hit, and Terry Collins countered with Jerry Blevins. Blevins got Heyward to tap one back to Blevins to end the inning.
Jeurys Familia recorded his 27th straight save this year to secure the 4-3 win. This one wasn’t easy. Ben Zobrist hit a double to make it second a third with no outs. Familia struck out Bryant, and then intentionally walked Anthony Rizzo to face rookie catcher Willson Contreras. Familia struck out the overmatched Contreras. Baez popped it up to end what was a tremendous save by Familia and win for the Mets.
The Mets took the first game of a four game set against the Cubs. By the way, last year’s NLCS was also a four game set.
Game Notes: Matz showed his frustration out there a few times, most notably when Lackey buzzed him on a sac bunt attempt. He also threw his glove after the Baez homer. Erik Goeddel earned the win after pitching 1.2 scoreless innings.
The Mets chance was in the top of the sixth. Yusmeiro Petit walked Neil Walker to load the bases with one out. Dusty Baker then summoned Oliver Perez from the bullpen. The very same Oliver Perez Mets fans love to hate.
After Ollie struck out James Loney and got Wilmer Flores to meekly pop out to center to end the threats hereby earning the win, Mets fans hate him all the more now. In fact, there’s a short list of things Mets fans hate more than him. About the only thing that really comes to mind is the Mets offense, especially after they got shut out tonight.
If you didn’t expect the Mets to have a low offensive output, you didn’t realize Matt Harvey was starting. In Harvey’s 81 career starts, the Mets have scored two runs or less for him 35 times. That’s 43% of the time. It’s absurd.
Like the other 34 times, you can’t pin this one on Harvey. He had allowed one earned on four hits with three walks and three strikeouts in 3.2 innings. He was only pulled due to a length rain delay that lasted over an hour and a half.
After the rain delay, Terry Collins initially went to Erik Goeddel. After Goeddel walked Danny Espinosa, Collins brought Jerry Blevins into the game do face the left-handed pinch hitter Clint Robinson. Naturally, when you have to go deep in your bullpen tonight and have Logan Verrett making a spot start tomorrow, you want to play the match-up game in the fourth inning.
Blevins would get out of the inning unscathed, but Bryce Harper would launch a two run home run in the fifth to make it a 3-0 game. The Nationals would stretch the lead to a 5-0 game in the seventh when Mets killer Wilson Ramos hit a two run double off of Hansel Robles to make it a 5-0 game. The Mets intentionally walked Daniel Murphy to get to Ramos. To add insult to injury, Robles would have to leave the game after a Ryan Zimmerman got him on the knee.
It was a tough night all around. Harvey took the loss dropping him to 4-10 on the season. The Mets also lost another game in the division and remain in third place.
Game Notes: Alejandro De Aza e texted the game in the fourth as Curtis Granderson had trouble getting loose after the rain delay. De Aza was 0-2. Brandon Nimmo had another good game going 1-4. Nationals rookie Lucas Giolito pitched four scoreless in his major league debut.
To put it as succinctly as possible, Alejandro De Aza has not been a good baseball player this year. He rarely plays, and when he does play, he has only served as a detriment. In 52 games, he has hit .169/.221/.247 with a 28 OPS+. To put it in perspective, everyone’s least favorite Met, Eric Campbell, is hitting .159/.270/.222 with a 37 OPS+. When you are incapable of outplaying Campbell, who is currently playing in AAA, you must question what purpose it serves having De Aza on the major league roster.
Initially, Terry Collins wanted De Aza to suceed. It was less than a month ago that Collins said he wanted to get De Aza more playing time so he could get going and put up the numbers he once did. Collins stayed true to his word as De Aza has played more in June than any other month. De Aza has played in a season high 20 games and received a season high 42 plate appearances. He has rewarded Collins by having his worst month of the season hitting .128/.171/.205. Slowly, Collins realized that whatever the reason, this wasn’t working out, and he began to look elsewhere for outfield options in the wake of Juan Lagares on the disabled list and Yoenis Cespedes being a bit nicked up. It has gotten to the point where Collins put Matt Reynolds in left for a game despite Reynolds never having played a game in the outfield as a professional.
Still, De Aza got some starts and at bats as he was the only completely healthy center fielder on the roster. However, at this point, Collins may have had enough of De Aza.
On Satuday, the Mets were locked in a scoreless game in the top of the tenth. De Aza was sent up there to bunt Wilmer Flores over to second base in the hopes that the Mets could FINALLY push a run across the plate. De Aza then popped the bunt in the air and made zero effort to get to first. This led to Braves’ pitcher Jim Johnson astutely letting it drop and completing the double play. Collins was incensed and laid into De Aza. After the game, he said, “I’ve seen [De Aza] play, and the one thing he is known for is how hard he plays. But it goes to show you — everybody gets frustrated when they don’t do the job.” (New York Post). It seems that Collins had finally had enough.
Yesterday, Collins decided to put rookie Brandon Nimmo in right field, a position he has only played 32 times in six minor league seasons and Kelly Johnson in left field. After Saturday, it is no surprise that De Aza was on the bench. In fact, the only surprise would have been if De Aza received any consideration to start.
What is even more surprising is De Aza’s presence on the major league roster. We can all agree De Aza is a much better player he has shown on the Mets, but so did John Mayberry last year. For whatever reason, it hasn’t worked for either player during their time with the Mets. The Mets were wise to cut bait with Mayberry last year, and they should do the same with De Aza this year. In his stead, the Mets have a few good options in the minors that could easily replicate, if not improve, what De Aza has given the Mets this year.
First, there is Travis Taijeron. He is currently hitting .306/.392/.568 in AAA right now. He has shown powers at each level he plays, and he should be able to hit for some power in the big leagues. He is a good defensive corner outfielder that may not be able to handle center that well. However, with Nimmo on the roster, finding a backup center fielder is not as big a priority right now.
If the Mets wanted to go with a true back up center fielder and a player with big league experience, they could go with Roger Bernadina. Bernadina has played a steady center field over his major league career. Over his last three major league seasons, he averaged a -0.2 UZR and a 0.7 DRS in center fielder. These are unspectacular numbers, but it goes to show you he will not hurt the Mets if he is needed to play center field.
At the plate, he is a .236/.307/.354 major league hitter. However, Bernadina played in the minor leagues all of last year. Given what De Aza has done this year you’d be hard pressed to say Bernadina’s career numbers wouldn’t be an improvement. In AAA, he has hit .298/.384/.466, which coincidentally, is very similar to the .276/.383/.466 he put up in the Pacific Coast League last year. At a minimum, you can say that Bernadina is not a player in decline like Mayberry was last year and De Aza seems to be this year.
Given the Mets current World Series aspirations, they can ill afford to wait for De Aza especially since he looks dejected out there. He is forcing the Mets hands to make a move similar to how the Mets made a move on Mayberry last year. With Taijeron and Bernadina in the minors, the Mets can and should release De Aza and call-up a player who promises to put up better production.
Before Thursday night’s disaster, the Mets were 34-1 when they were leading after seven innings. After Addison Reed grooved one down the heart of the plate to Adonis Garcia, the Mets record is now 34-2 when leading after seven innings. It’s hard to get on Reed for the loss as he has been so good this year. In fact, the Mets have not blown a lead in which Reed pitched the eighth and Jeurys Familia pitched the ninth.
Reed is a huge reason why. So far this year, Reed has pitched the best he ever has in his entire career. Up until last night’s blown save, Reed was 1-1 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP. During the month of May, he did not allow one earned run in 12 appearances. He limited batters to a .205/.225/.205 batting line. It seemed that as the season was progressing, he was getting stronger.
Unfortunately, Reed’s success has not carried forward into June. So far, he is 1-2 in the month of June with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP. Batters are hitting .262/.311/.476 against him. He has already made 11 appearances this month (he made 13 in April and 12 in May), and he is starting to show some signs of fatigue. It is showing both in the results and his velocity In April, he threw a 92.9 MPH fastball and an 86.8 MPH slider. In May, he was throwing a 93.8 MPH fastball with an 87.4 MPH slider. In June, his velocity is down. He’s throwing a 92.6 MPH fastball and a 85.3 MPH slider.
Ultimately, this is what Reed has been his entire career. He has typically been a pitcher that wears down over the course of the season. Here are his career monthly splits:
- March/April 2.79 ERA
- May 3.83 ERA
- June 5.54 ERA
- July 3.66 ERA
- August 2.08 ERA
- September/October 5.21 ERA
This is Reed’s typical June swoon. He tires as the season progresses, and he’s rejuvenated with the All Star Break. He’s following the same pattern this year but with far better results.
Overall, Terry Collins may need to watch how he uses Reed for the rest of the season as the Mets will need him at his best for the pennant race and beyond.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
Upon hearing the news that Yoenis Cespedes will not have to go on the disabled list with his sprained wrist, everyone from Terry Collins to Mr. Met to each and every Mets fan breathed a sigh of relief. As soon as everyone realizes that Cespedes is day-to-day and Alejandro De Aza will get more playing time, the trepidation may return even after yesterday’s well played game.
Given that prospect, it might be time to call-up Brandon Nimmo up to the majors now to play center until Cespedes is ready to resume playing everyday.
Nimmo has certainly earned the promotion. He has gotten progressively better as the season as progressed. Here are his monthly splits:
- April .260/.333/.315
- May .326/.421/.565
- June .388/.455/.642
Over his last 46 games, Nimmo is hitting .370/.453/.603 with 14 doubles, seven triples, five homers, and 34 RBI. Nimmo’s production is quickly moving from short sample size to true talent level. No matter the case, he’s playing extraordinarily well. This is the precise point you want to bring a player to the majors.
Furthermore, Nimmo helps the Mets in a lot of ways. On a station-to-station team, he’s a top of the order hitter that had the speed to take the extra base. He’s also a good defensive center fielder, which would permit Cespedes to play left field, his Gold Glove position, when he’s capable of returning to the line-up on a full time basis.
There’s just one problem with this line of thinking. It discounts Michael Conforto. This is the same Conforto that was a vital part of the Mets offense not only last year, but this year as well. This is the same Conforto that has risen to each and every challenge before him.
This is also the same Conforto who has hit .153/.213/.314 in the 42 games he has played since May 1st. Over the past week, he’s 1-14. He’s 4-44 against lefties this year. There are many reasons why he could be hitting this poorly from his injured wrist to his approach at the plate. Whatever the cause, he’s not figuring it out in the majors right now, and he’s hurting the team in the process. The Mets need to do what is best for him and the team by sending him down to AAA. He can correct his approach there and gain some confidence while batting in the hitter’s haven that is the Pacific Coast League.
In the interim, Nimmo gets his well earned shot. Terry Collins can figure out left field until Cespedes is ready. With his recent play and especially yesterday’s game, it may not hurt to give Matt Reynolds some more games in left field. At least for right now, that is what will be best for the Mets.
It will also benefit the Mets in the future. Nimmo and Conforto are a big part of the Mets future. Conforto needs to get himself straight at the plate, and eventually, Nimmo has to be thrown into the deep end to see if he can swim. Both can happen now, and both players could be better for it. It’s time to send down Conforto and call-up Nimmo.
Editor’s Note: this article was first published on metsminors.net
From time to time, if you listen to the Mets telecasts close enough, you will hear Keith Hernandez tell the story of his 1975 season. After getting called-up and playing well in 1974, he thought he was in the majors for good. That wasn’t the case. In 1975, he was hitting .250/.309/.362 in 64 games. He left the Cardinals with little other choice but to send him down to the minors, and they did.
Initially, Hernandez was humiliated by the moment. However, he took advantage of the opportunity. Down in the minors, he got his swing right. He came back to the majors in 1976, and he he hit .289/.376/.428. He was back in the majors, and he was back for good. Hernandez would go on to win the 1979 batting title and MVP Award (shared with Willie Stargell). He had a bat to match his unparalleled defense. From that adversity, Hernandez would become a champion as a member of the 1982 and 1986 World Series teams. In total, Hernandez put together a borderline Hall of Fame career. It is something he might not have done had he not ever gone to the minors. As he has said, it was the best thing that ever happened to his career.
If you listen to Mets telecasts closely enough, you will also notice that Hernandez is a huge fan of Michael Conforto. You will also notice Conforto is struggling mightily like Hernandez did in 1975.
It was not too long ago that Conforto seemed to be a budding superstar. Having never played above AA, Conforto was called-up to the majors last year to hit .270/.335/.506 in 56 games. He hit two home runs in Game 4 of the World Series. He started this season off hitting .365/.442/.676 with four homers in April. The question then wasn’t whether he was major league ready, the question was how high his ceiling could possibly be. It seemed that Conforto was a likely All Star, possibly more. Then the calendar turned to May.
Since May 1st, Conforto has hit .157/.212/.321. There could be a multitude of reasons why this has happened from major league pitchers figuring him out and Conforto failing to make the needed adjustments to the cortisone shot Conforto needed in his wrist. Bottom line is Conforto has gone from playing at an All Star level to being a player who belongs in the minor leagues. Considering the fact that Terry Collins wants to “shake things up” it may be a signal that the Mets are willing to demote Conforto. It may not be the worst thing for Conforto or the Mets.
Conforto can go to Las Vegas and get himself right. He can spend time down there not only working on his swing but also his approach at the plate. Furthermore, hitting in a hitter’s haven like the Pacific Coast League could do wonders for a player that has been struggling for well over a month in the majors. We all saw how well this worked for Travis d’Arnaud back in 2014. He came back a much better player after his time in the minors. We also saw the positive effects of such a demotion with Keith Hernandez.
In the interim, the Mets could choose to give Alejandro De Aza some additional playing time to see if he can start playing like the player they thought he was when the Mets signed him in the offseason. The Mets could decided to turn to Brandon Nimmo who has been raking in AAA. Maybe, just maybe, the Mets could allow Conforto to start taking grounders at first considering James Loney is not the long term answer and no one knows when Lucas Duda can return from the disabled list.
Ultimately, this could be the best thing that has happened to both Conforto and the Mets. If the Mets have designs on returning to the World Series, they are going to need Conforto, who, when right, is the most complete hitter on the team. While he’s finding his stroke in the minors, Nimmo could get his chance to see if he is indeed ready to play in the majors. If Conforto is able to pick up first base, then the Mets could keep Nimmo in left when Conforto is ready to return to the majors. It might be time to send Conforto to AAA for not only his own good, but also for the good of the Mets.
After all, it worked for Keith Hernandez.