Steven Matz
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a “reset” and looking to part with some of their biggest contracts. As part of that, they’re looking to trade Nolan Arenado, who has named six teams he’s be willing to be traded.
One of those teams is the New York Mets. There’s a lot to consider when contemplating such a trade.
First, Arenado has three years $64 million remaining on his deal for whoever obtains him. The three years are broken down as $27 million (2025), $22 million (2026), and $15 million (2027). That’s not an onerous contract for the Mets.
Addressing Pete Alonso for a second, he turned down a 7 year $158 deal ($22.6 million AAV). As such, he’s likely going to carry a higher cost over the next three years than Arenado.
In theory, executing an Arenado trade would be cheaper than re-signing Alonso. As a result, the Mets could free up money to do other things like sign Sean Manae and rebuild their bullpen (again).
Before getting there, let’s analyze what Arenado is and is not; what he would do for the Mets.
First and foremost, Arenado brings defense. No, he’s not the otherworldly defender he was three years ago. He’s regressed into merely being ONLY the third best defensive third baseman in the game.
That addresses a major problem the Mets had. Mark Vientos’ bat was a revelation which took the Mets to new heights. His glove was better than advertised but still not good.
Vientos was the fifth worst defensive third baseman. Moving him to first already improves the Mets defensively. Replacing him with Arenado is like going from the discovery of the wheel directly to a race car.
Arenado and Francisco Lindor would immediately become the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. It could rival Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. It would be that great.
A defensive upgrade like that makes the pitching staff better. With David Stearns optimizing run prevention, this would seem like the perfect move.
It’s far from a no brainer. After all, if you’re going to part ways with Alonso, you better be sure it’s the right decision.
The biggest hesitation with Arenado is the bat. He will be 34 on Opening Day, and he’s clearly in decline.
In 2022, Arenado posted a career best 149 wRC+. In the subsequent two years, he’s posted a 106 and a 102.
He’s coming off a year with a career worst in nearly every offensive metric. He barely barreled any pitches (3.2%), and he had a career low exit velocity. Both appear part of a career decline.
Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball hard anymore. He’s a league average hitter, and in all likelihood, he will soon be a below average hitter.
Now, Arenado’s defense is at a point where it can offset the dip in offense. He will likely be a productive player, and with his salaries deceasing, he should fulfill his contract.
Still, Alonso is a far superior hitter. In a down year, he had a 122 wRC+. He still has game changing power as evidenced in the NL Wild Card Series. Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.
In an ideal world, the Cardinals would take back Starling Marte in a trade. However, it’s hard to see the Cardinals taking back a 36 year old right fielder making $20.75 million.
That could be the case even if the Mets were also willing to take on Steven Matz and his $12.5 million contract. As an aside, Matz would help in the bullpen.
If the deal makes sense, the Mets should go get Arenado. He will make them better. He probably raises the ceiling more than Alonso would. That all said, if the Mets go this route they better be right.
Top of the ninth. Two outs. 3-2 count. New York Mets trailing the Arizona Diamondbacks 1-0. Andrew Chafin throws a good sinker on the outside part of the plate. Francisco Alvarez takes a huge cut, and . . .
FRANCISCO ÁLVAREZ STRIKES AGAIN!
A GAME-TYING HOMER IN THE NINTH! pic.twitter.com/NC2c0aDlFh
— SNY (@SNYtv) July 6, 2023
If you’re a Mets fan, that clutch opposite field homer is so reminiscent of Mets greats like Mike Piazza and David Wright. We’ve seen Alvarez been compared to Piazza, and Alvarez is actually wearing the number Wright always had wanted to wear.
The Mets seem to rarely produce prospects like this. Yes, there was Tom Seaver and the aforementioned Wright. We know the story of Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry.
We went through Generation K with Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher breaking down. That uber rotation has whimpered. Jacob deGrom is with the Texas Rangers, and he needs a second Tommy John. Noah Syndergaard is with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he says he will give away his first born to be Thor again.
Zack Wheeler is with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Steven Matz‘s career is falling apart with the St. Lois Cardinals. Matt Harvey, who was supposed to be the best of them all, retired after the injuries and the off-the-field problems.
The Mets tales with the can’t miss prospect doesn’t typically end well. We need not look any further than Wright, whose path the to the Hall of Fame was derailed by spinal stenosis.
Despite the past, Alvarez feels different. In fact, he is different than just about any prospect. Seriously, you have to go all the way back to Johnny Bench to find a catcher who has been great on both sides of the ball the way Alvarez has been.
Right now, Alvarez is doing it all. Per Baseball Savant, he’s tied for sixth best in baseball in framing. He’s ninth in baseball in blocking balls in the dirt. Overall, he’s a terrific defensive catcher.
Francisco Alvarez with a nice catch! pic.twitter.com/6le6sD75F1
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) July 7, 2023
In addition to the defense is the bat, more specifically, the power. At the moment, he leads all major league catchers in homers. As we see with him, when they come, they come in bunches. In fact, he homered in all three games of the sweep of the Diamondbacks.
At the moment, he’s seventh among all major league catchers in fWAR (fourth in the NL). Since May 1, around the time when he took over being the everyday catcher, he ranks fifth overall.
Among rookies, his fWAR ranks 11th overall. In the NL, he ranks sixth. Depending on Corbin Carroll‘s injury, he may or may not be in the running for Rookie of the Year along with Elly De La Cruz.
However, in the end, it is not really about the award. Rather, with Alvarez, we see greatness. We see Gary Carter with more power, or Piazza with the ability to throw out base runners. At the moment, the sky is the limit for him.
Maybe this recent Mets run gets them back in the Wild Card race. It probably doesn’t. No matter what happens there, it is still not a lost season. The reason is because Alvarez is emerging as a real star in this league, and we see the next great Met emerging.
On the surface, the New York Mets supposed plans to eat a bad contact to get a good player makes a lot of sense. After all, it’s what we say he Los Angeles Dodgers do when they first started their current run.
It’s also a great way to maximize Steve Cohen’s financial muscle. Go after teams at the mercy of a bad contract and see just how badly they need to get rid of the deal. For an owner like Cohen, that bad contract may be nothing more than a rounding error.
Who knows? Maybe the Mets can turn that bad contract into something too.
Take Steven Matz as an example. He’s had success in the past with the Mets. He’s got a good relationship with Jeremy Hefner. His splits against left-handed batters suggest he could be an effective left-handed reliever/long man.
Who knows how much the St. Louis Cardinals want to me rid of him. Do they give up a decent prospect? Maybe a decent reliever? It’s worth gauging interest.
Going back to the Dodgers, the plan worked beautifully because Andrew Friedman was in charge. Friedman is among the best there is.
As for the Mets, they have Billy Eppler. He’s the same GM who couldn’t win with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. More recently, he’s the one responsible for the current Mets roster issues.
To execute trades like this, you have to trust your current GM. Looking at Eppler’s Mets trade history, the only trade that hasn’t proven to be a debacle has been the Chris Bassitt trade.
Based on that trading history, you really can’t trust Eppler with executing trades of this nature. He is going to be inclined to attach a prospect with real value for what will amount to little more than a salary/contact dump.
The obvious retort is he is the GM, and you need to be able to trust him to make these (or any) trades. However, Eppler has a long history as a GM now, and nothing there suggests he can or should be trusted.
Put another way, Eppler should not be the GM. In fact, he never should have been hired. It’s better to not let him screw things up more and reset in the offseason. After all, Eppler has shown he can make any situation worse.
The 2015 season was great for the New York Mets but a trying one for Zack Wheeler. It was never supposed to be that way.
At the end of the 2014 season, Wheeler was terrific. From June 30 to September 7, he was 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA. In the second half, he was 6-3 with a 3.04 ERA.
That was supposed to be his springboard to a true breakout 2015 season. He was supposed to join reigning Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom and a returning from Tommy John Matt Harvey to form a super rotation.
Except it didn’t work out that way. Wheeler succumbed to a torn UCL in Spring Training. He was eventually supplanted by Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz in the young rotation designed to turn the Mets into World Series contenders.
He was replaced and nearly traded. He and Wilmer Flores were nearly traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. If not for Carlos Gomez’s medicals, Wheeler’s story with the Mets ends there.
While we saw Flores crying, Wheeler was trying to intercede with Sandy Alderson. Given the interest in him and the Mets needs, it’s possible his efforts were the reason he was not traded.
However, that was the days of the Wilpon Mets. Embarrassment and nonsense were sure to follow. Mostly, needless pettiness did.
Wheeler wanted to be a part of that 2015 pennant run. This was his team. He was (once) part of the foundation. Only, the Wilpons didn’t want him there.
Seems like just yesterday the Mets were telling Zack Wheeler to buy his own tickets if he wanted to attend the 2015 postseason games.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) October 19, 2022
Of course, the Wilpons were that cheap. Even their own players had to purchase tickets to see postseason games. After all, these were the owners duped in a Ponzi Scheme and were continuously over leveraging themselves in a desperate attempt to keep the team.
Things were so bad they were a part of Amway. Amway.
Things would get worse for Wheeler. His Tommy John rehab was a nightmare requiring additional surgeries. He would not return until 2017. That season was cut short with bicep tendinitis and a stress fracture in his humerus.
It would not be until the second half or the 2018 season that we finally saw Wheeler fulfill his potential. He was dazzling going 9-1 with a 1.68 ERA.
With him cane hopes for a Mets quick resurgence. Again, the Wilpons are cheap and dumb. They hired an agent who showed no regard for the Mets future or really any clue as to what he was doing.
He tried to sell Marcus Stroman as his replacement. It was a complete farce to replace Wheeler with someone in the same rotation. It’s the Amway of building rotations.
Wheeler wanted to return and was willing to take less. Perhaps, he didn’t purchase enough postseason tickets because the Wilpons were not willing or able to bring him back at a discount.
Rather than be gracious, Brodie Van Wagenen took unnecessary shots at Wheeker. All Wheeler ever wanted was to be a Met, and Van Wagenen wanted no part in that. That goes double for the Wilpons.
Well, the end result was Wheeler with the Philadelphia Phillies. He was the ace he was with the Mets only to be recognized as such now.
He found himself in the postseason and has pitched great. He’s pitched the Phillies to a pennant. This time, he had a front row seat. He was paid to be there and not the other way around.
Wheeler wanted to fully experience this with the Mets. The Wilpons didn’t want that.
Well, Jeff Wilpon is out of baseball. Their GM is now an agent again. Fred Wilpon sold away almost all of his team. Wheeler is pitching for a pennant winner.
Wheeler deserves this moment. Hopefully, he cherishes it and the bit of irony he’s celebrating it with Syndergaard. Congratulations to them both.
Over the course of a 162 game season, there are going to be games like this. Frankly, Carlos Carrasco just didn’t have it, and as a result the New York Mets just weren’t going to win.
With the Mets winning six straight series to open the season, we shouldn’t be dwelling too much on a game like this. That goes double with the Mets resting players in advance of a travel day.
Where the focus needs to be is how the Mets comport themselves and are rattling their opponents.
Again, Mets batters were thrown at by the opposing pitcher. Steven Matz went up-and-in on Brandon Nimmo. J.D. Davis left the game with a foot injury after being plunked by Genesis Cabrera.
Finally, for the first time all season, the Mets responded in a way that wasn’t Starling Marte or Max Scherzer threatening the other team. Yoan Lopez took the ball and buzzed Nolan Arenado.
It was a pitch reminiscent of Noah Syndergaard and Alcidies Escobar. It was up-and-in, but the batter was not in danger of getting hit. Like with the 2015 World Series, an overreaction ensued.
Nolan Arenado's reaction following the pitch from Yoan López: pic.twitter.com/7zCFzGh3pw
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 27, 2022
Arenado chirped, attacked Tomas Nido, and then, he headed for Lopez. He wouldn’t get there as the benches cleared, and Arenado backed off. During the melee, the Cardinals went after Pete Alonso.
Pete Alonso was pulled to the ground by the Cardinals during the incident: pic.twitter.com/RtlmJRk7x1
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 27, 2022
That was done by the Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp, a coach whose name is reminiscent of what Jimmy Duggan advises young boys to avoid. Things might’ve gotten worse, but Albert Pujols stepped in and de-escalated the situation.
At this point, the Cardinals had hit five batters. That included hitting Alonso in the helmet. Then, they went after him in a scrum.
Chris Bassitt tried to throw the Cardinals pitchers a lifeline by blaming MLB. Instead, Miles Mikolas effectively called Bassitt a liar and said Bassitt needed to take responsibility for his own control issues. Again, this was in response to Bassitt trying to absolve Cardinals pitchers of throwing at his teammates.
After the game, Cardinals manager Oli Marmol not only whined after the non-HBP, but he went on to defend attacking someone from behind:
Oli Marmol said he had "no issue" with how Stubby Clapp tackled Pete Alonso during the benches-clearing incident
"I'm okay with it" pic.twitter.com/TWDhdjy8sJ
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 27, 2022
When Buck Showalter was asked about the same course of events, his reaction was markedly different. He noted how when Alonso was ACTUALLY HIT IN THE HEAD, he went to first base.
Does Buck Showalter think Nolan Arenado's reaction was out of line?
"I know our player got hit in the head and went to first base" pic.twitter.com/E8W0XhW1N0
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 27, 2022
This is where the Mets and Cardinals could not be more different. The Mets are angry they keep getting hit by pitches, but they’re channeling that anger towards beating you. So far, it’s not only worked, but it’s also galvanized the team.
With respect to the Cardinals, they couldn’t handle it. They threw with reckless abandon and kept hitting Mets batters.
When the Mets said, we get what’s happening here. It’s not your fault. The Cardinals response was to tell the Mets to take responsibility.
When the Mets three inside, the Cardinals freaked out and attacked Alonso from behind. Then, they went and pretended like all of their actions were justified.
In the end, the Mets are better than the Cardinals because they’re a better and more mature team. Every time you hit them, they get you back by winning. As for the Cardinals, well, they’re there to whine, complain, and point fingers.
The Mets took two of three, and they’ll have the mental edge when the Cardinals come visit Citi Field.
There’s a gag on the show Archer wherein Archer is essentially asked what he can’t understand, and the answer is, “Core concept.” Right now, this applies to the New York Mets and free agency.
Noah Syndergaard was a free agent, who had a qualifying offer in hand and wanted to return to the Mets. However, while the Mets were focused elsewhere, the Los Angeles Angels and other teams were making their pitch.
The Mets immediate response to Syndergaard’s signing with the Angels was they weren’t given the last chance to sign him. Of course, to make that request, they’d actually have to talk to the player.
Not even a week went by, and the Mets are once again upset a player who wanted to return to the Mets didn’t give them an opportunity to make the final offer. This time, it was Steven Matz.
As the story goes, Matz first contacted the Mets, and the team’s interest was mutual. It was a wide open field, but for whatever reason, the Mets not only we’re going to get the opportunity to match, but they were willing to match the deal Matz signed with the St. Louis Cardinals.
However, that’s not what happened. Matz liked the deal and the opportunity presented by the Cardinals, so he signed with them. Mets owner Steve Cohen was angry:
I’m not happy this morning . I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent.I guess words and promises don’t matter.
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) November 24, 2021
Keep in mind, this was the same Matz the Mets traded for spare parts (Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Diaz, and Josh Winckowski). The Mets could’ve extended him last year with zero competition, but they instead traded him.
The Mets getting upset over Syndergaard and Matz not giving them the final chance shows they fail to understand the core concept of free agency. Free agents owe no loyalty to anyone, and they can sign with whomever they want.
For the Mets, you can almost write this off as a fluke. After all, it’s not often these situations present themselves, and it’s really infrequent this happens in a week.
The problem is it’s not just this week. Last year, the Mets thought they had Trevor Bauer signed. Honestly, with the website snafu, everyone did.
When Bauer went to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Alderson complained this was the furthest in the process he went in contract negotiations with a free agent and not get the player. As a result, Anderson and the Mets (fortunately) didn’t sign Bauer.
This marks the third time the Mets thought they were in a great position to sign a player only to come up empty. At some point, that’s a Mets problem and not a agents problem.
Argue over whether the Mets should’ve signed these players all you want. The fact is the Mets lost out on all three, and they wanted all three. That’s a huge problem.
Cohen can pretend it’s the agents fault. It’s not. The Mets are failing to sign players, and all they can do is tweet their way through it.
The Mets need to do better. If they want a player give them a strong offer while they’re there and don’t let them go out and leverage your offer. Just get it done, and then tweet out you actually signed the player.
That’s how free agency works.
As previously noted, Steven Matz has defined himself as the old crafty lefty. He’s a back end of the rotation starter who pitches to contact.
As such, he’s going to succeed or fail largely based on the defense behind him. Considering the New York Mets defense behind him was a sick joke, he faltered.
It was so bad, he went to a bad defensive Toronto Blue Jays team, and it seemed like he was a completely different pitcher. Truth be told, the bad defense is a significant improvement over incompetent defense, and so, he thrived.
This is exactly why St. Louis was the prefect landing spot for Matz. His four year $44 million deal with the Cardinals benefits him and that team.
This past year the Cardinals were the first team to boast five Gold Glovers in Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neil, and Harrison Bader. Notably, two-thirds of the Cardinals outfield was golden.
Remember, Matz is a pitcher who yields batted balls in the air roughly 55% of the time. The Cardinals 29 DRS in the outfield helps him immensely.
Fact is, the Cardinals have long been a defense forward thinking organization. Their entire team had an 81 DRS, good for second best in the majors.
Combine this with Mike Maddux being one of the best pitching coaches in the game, and you have the absolute best place for Matz. There was literally no better spot, and he’s going to thrive there unlike anywhere else.
That’s not to say he wouldn’t have thrived with the Mets. We know he can because we saw it. If he came back to the Mets to work with Jeremy Hefner, their vastly developing and improving analytics department, and their improved defense, Matz would’ve done well.
Matz just wouldn’t have done as well with the Mets as he will with the Cardinals. Truth be told, Matz needed a better situation, and the Mets needed a better pitcher. If the Mets do what they need to do this offseason, this is best for all involved.
There can be a debate as to when the New York Mets knew they needed a front office overhaul. It could’ve been since the start of the season since they failed to hire a president of baseball operations last year.
It could’ve been as late as Zack Scott’s DUI arrest. Whatever the case, the Mets knew before the end of the season they needed a front office overhaul.
What ensued was a protracted search which missed the mark. First, the Mets again gave up on hiring a POBO. Then, it was a GM search.
While this was happening, other teams went to work on their offseason plans. That goes double for the Los Angeles Angels.
While the Mets had no leadership and no plan, Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels. While the Mets had radio silence, the Angels were laying out their plan from their assembled front office. The sales pitch and uncertainty had an effect on Syndergaard and his decision:
"This is kind of a make or break time for me. I didn't want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that was going on with them"
Noah Syndergaard after he was asked if the Mets' GM and managerial search impacted his free agency decision pic.twitter.com/qIzgRxwYXz
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 19, 2021
While Syndergaard was due partially to confusion over the front office, Aaron Loup was something else. Loup was great for the Mets, and he wanted to stay. He didn’t.
During the Mets exclusive window to negotiate with Loup, they were trying to assemble a front office. Again, while this was happening, the Angels were making their pitch to Loup. Obviously, it was a successful one.
So, Billy Eppler hasn’t been on the job for a week, and he’s seen Syndergaard and Loup leave. That’s not to say the Mets aren’t moving. After all, they’re pursuing Steven Matz.
Again, the Mets are working from behind. The Angels aren’t and have struck twice. Who knows where this stops, especially with Marcus Stroman still a free agent.
The Mets have time to act, but free agent starters are flying off the board. More to the point, the Angels are taking some of their best pitchers, and it’s possible it’ll happen again soon.
According to recent rumors, the New York Mets are interested in a Steven Matz reunion. Given Matz’s love of the Mets and his 2021 season, it makes sense.
With the Toronto Blue Jays, Matz made 29 starts going 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA, 150.2 IP, 1.334 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. From an advanced stat perspective, he had a 2.0 WAR, 115 ERA+, and a 3.79 FIP.
Looking at Baseball Savant, Matz success was predicated on control and reducing the quality of contact against him. Put another way, Matz is settling into being that crafty lefty who is a mediocre third starter and quality back end of the rotation arm.
While there were some changes to sequencing and the like, Matz’s improvement was mostly due to the Blue Jays defense. With Matz “pitching to contact,” he needs a quality defense. The Mets were never that in his tenure, and he suffered.
While not outstanding, the Blue Jays team 22 DRS ranked 15th in the majors. Again, it’s amazing how much better a pitcher looks with a competent defense behind him. Ironically, the Mets are now much better than that with a 48 DRS in 2021.
Between the shifting and Francisco Lindor, Matz and his ground ball propensity would truly thrive with the Mets. Maybe now, Matz will pitch more like a three. If so, that would be great for the Mets.
The problem is the Mets really need more than that. Their top two starters in Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are on the wrong side of 30, and they have injury issues heading into 2022. Taijuan Walker was great for the first half, but then he really faltered and ended the year with a 90 ERA+.
In reality, the Mets need two top of the rotation starters. No matter what the adjustments, Matz will never really be that. That’s not a criticism of him. He’s a quality Major League starter, just not the starter the Mets need now.
If deGrom was fully healthy, and if Walker was guaranteed to take the next step, yes, go sign Matz. He’d be a great fit. Honestly, he still might, and no one should be upset if he was signed. That said, the Mets need better.