Seth Lugo

Please Televise All Spring Training Games

Ever since T.J. Rivera lined out to Denard Span, it has been an excruciatingly long offseason.  Somehow, we have navigated through the offseason, and now it is Spring Training.  Finally, on Friday, there was a game being played.  On what was a pleasantly surprising Spring day in the middle of February, there was a baseball game being played.  It was the perfect day for baseball.

It gets better.  Michael Conforto was being allowed to hit against a left-handed pitcher.  Gavin Cecchini was playing second base.  Gold Glover Juan Lagares was going to be patrolling center field.  Personal favorite, Seth Lugo, was getting the start.

Wait, it gets better.  Uber prospects Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith were slated to appear in the game.

This is the type of day where you align your lunch with the game.  You get in your car to listen to Howie Rose do the play-by-play.  You find a place to eat where you can watch an inning or two.

Except, you can’t.  With the Mets traveling to Fort Myers to play the Red Sox, the game was not going to be televised.  Typically speaking, road Spring Training games are not telecast for a myriad of very justifiable reasons.  With that said, it would have been nice to watch some of the game during lunch, and it would have been great to watch the replay with my son when I got home.  However, I didn’t get that opportunity because, like the revolution, this game was not televised.

With baseball looking for more and more ways to improve the sport, it should find a way to televise all of their Spring Training games.  At the very least, it would be an olive branch to your most die hard fans who may take real issue with the rule changes you want to put in place.

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Trivia Friday – Most Mets Starts Since 2011

With the Mets trying to decide what to do with pitchers like Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, it is likely the Mets are going to need both of them to make starts at different parts of the year as no team goes through the season with just five starters.  To that end, the Mets have used 31 pitchers since Sandy Alderson took over as general manager.

Can you name the Mets pitchers who have made the most starts in that stretch?  Good luck!


Jon Niese Dillon Gee Bartolo Colon Matt Harvey Jacob deGrom R.A. Dickey Noah Syndergaard Zack Wheeler Mike Pelfrey Jeremy Hefner

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The Case for Seth Lugo As The Fifth Starter

With many analyzing who should be the fifth starter, there seems to be two camps emerging.  The first camp believes Zack Wheeler should be the fifth starter.  The main basis for this argument, and it is a compelling one, is his 12 start stretch from July 6th – September 7th, 2004 where he was 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, and an 8.9 K/9.  Understandably, many believe Wheeler can return to this form.  If so, he is a natural choice for the fifth starter.

The second camp believes Robert Gsellman should be the fifth starter.  Gsellman has vaulted up many top prospect lists due to the stuff he showed at the end of last season.  Like Wheeler, Gsellman was throwing 95 MPH.  Like many young Mets starters, he showed a developing slider.  Unlike Wheeler, Gsellman had the opportunity to pitch in September games that mattered.  With the Mets needing all the wins they could get, he was 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9.  There is every reason to believe the 22 year old can build on this success, and as a result, he should be the fifth starter.

The Mets are justified in going in either direction, and yet, perhaps, the Mets should go in a different direction.  For a multitude of reasons, the Mets should start the year with Seth Lugo in the Opening Day rotation.

The biggest argument you can make for Lugo in the rotation is his curveball.  There has been much written about it this offseason because it could very possibly be the best curveball in the game, at least if you use spin rate metrics.  His curveball naturally belongs on a staff that features some of the best pitches in baseball from Noah Syndergaard‘s fastball to Matt Harvey‘s slider to Jacob deGrom‘s change-up.  And yet, Lugo is more than a curveball.  He has a fastball he can throw as high as 97 MPH if the situation merits.  Like Gsellman, he is improving his slider.

He used this repertoire to pitch extremely well despite extremely difficult circumstances.  With the Mets fighting for the Wild Card, and him not having pitched more than three innings since May, he was thrust into the starting rotation.  Despite those hurdles, Lugo was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, and a 5.6 K/9 as a starter.  With Lugo being put in a better position next season, with him using his curveball more, and him further developing his slider, he promises to be an even better in 2017.

The obvious question is whether he would be a better option than Wheeler or Gsellman.  Arguably, even if Lugo isn’t better, perhaps he should be in the Opening Day rotation anyway.

Based upon the Mets handling of Harvey, the team is likely going to want to limit him somewhere between 160 – 180 innings last year.  Given his not having pitched in two years, there is a real debate if Wheeler can do even that.  Even assuming he can pitch that long, assuming he averages six innings per start, that’s only 27-30 starts.  This would leave the Mets needing to find approximately five more starts.

Then there is Gsellman.  If you subscribe to the Verducci effect, 30 more innings would mean Gsellman’s cap is 189.2 innings.  If he averages six innings per start, he would come close to lasting a full season.  With that said, the Mets would still probably need to find a few more spot starts.  That is even more the case if the Mets plan on using Gsellman in the postseason rotation.

Lugo can take the brunt of these starts to begin the season.  This would permit the Mets to ease Gsellman or Wheeler into the rotation a month or two into the season.  This would allow the Mets to allow either Gsellman or Wheeler to enter the rotation without having to be concerned about their innings.

As for Lugo, he could then move to the bullpen thereby giving the Mets another potentially dominant late inning reliever.  And, if needed, we already know the Mets can rely on him for a spot starter if needed.

Ultimately, the best case scenario for the Mets would be to start the year with Lugo in the rotation.  And who knows?  Based off of what we saw with him last year, he may prove to be the best option for the rotation for the entire season.

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Zack Wheeler Could Be Great In The Bullpen

During Terry Collins‘ first Spring Training press conference, he overtly stated Zack Wheeler is a starting pitcher.  With the Mets publicly considering using Wheeler in the bullpen, at least to start the season, Collins’ statements reminded me of how Bobby Valentine once held a similar opinion about Jason Isringhausen.

Back in 1999, the Mets were using Isringhausen, who had a litany of injuries and surgeries at that point, increasingly out of the bullpen.  It was a natural fit for him with his having only made six major league starts over a two year period.   And yet, Valentine preferred using Isringhausen in the rotation, as only Valentine could so eloquently put it, putting Isringhausen in the bullpen is like “us[ing] an Indy car as a taxi in New York City.”  (New York Daily News).

As we know Isringhausen would be moved later that season in the ill-fated and ill-conceived trade for Athletics closer Billy Taylor.  As an Athletic, Isringhausen would work exclusively out of the bullpen.  From there, he would become an All Star closer amassing 300 career saves.

Given the relative injury histories, the reluctance to put the pitchers in the bullpen, and the hope both pitchers carried with them as part of future super rotations, the Wheeler-Isringhausen comparisons are unavoidable.

To that end, it is important to note one of the supposed issues with Isringhausen in the bullpen was his control.  This is certainly understandable given his career 1.520 WHIP and 4.0 BB/9 as a starter.  And yet, when moved to the bullpen, and allowed to focus on his two best pitches, Isringhausen dramatically cut down on the hits and walks.  As a result, the things that made people believe he was a dominant starter came into focus as he became a dominant closer.

The consistently noted fear with Wheeler in the bullpen is his control.  His 3.9 BB/9 is similar to what Isringhausen’s was as a starter even if his 1.339 WHIP is considerably better.  It should also be noted Wheeler struck out more batters than Isringhausen did as a starter.  That is probably because Wheeler’s pure stuff is probably better than Isringhausen’s.  According to Brooks Baseball, Wheeler’s fastball sits in the mid 90s and he has a slider that almost hits 90.

Understandably, with Isringhause and Wheeler being different pitchers, the comparison may seem a bit contrived or imperfect.  With that said, we have seen how the Royals have transitioned pitchers with similar skill sets to Wheeler, and they converted them into dominant relievers.

Luke Hochevar was a struggling starter who gave up too many walks.  He was not having success in the rotation despite a low to mid 90s fastball and a high 80s cutter.  He was transitioned to the bullpen where he thrived.  Before showing the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, he was dominant in 2013 going 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9.

While the Royals didn’t try Greg Holland in the rotation, they saw how well his stuff played in the bullpen.  From 2011 – 2014, he was among the most dominant closers in all of baseball.  Over the stretch he was 15-9 with 113 saves, a 1.026 WHIP, and a 12.6 K/9.  Similar to Wheeler, Holland throws a mid to high 90s fastball and a slider in the high 80s.

Basically what we see in Isringhausen, Hochevar, and Holland is pitchers with great stuff can truly succeed in the bullpen.  Moreover, pitchers who have had control issues as starters can better harness their pitches by focusing one the two or maybe three pitches they throw best and work out of the stretch.  By focusing on what makes the pitcher great can, at times, led a pitcher down the path to greatness.  That is even in the event said greatness occurs out of the bullpen.

Given Wheeler’s past control issues, his not having pitched in two seasons, and the emergence of both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, it might be an opportunity for the Mets to move Wheeler in the bullpen where he may truly thrive.  Of course, we won’t know that unless the Mets are willing to try.  At this point, given Collins’ statements, it appears the Mets are not quite at that point yet.  Maybe they should be.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Mets Themed Valentine’s Day

With today being Valentine’s Day, it is only right we get into the spirit of things by being as clever as Bobby Valentine was the time he used eye black to make a fake mustache.  Without further ado, here are some “clever” Mets themed Valentine’s Day lines you may see on one of those cards you used to pass out to your classmates in grammar school:

Jerry Blevins – Jerry?  Hello!  Be my Valentine

Josh Edgin – I’m Edgin my way closer to you.

Jeurys Familia – I want to become Familia with your sexy self.

Matt Harvey – If you thought 50 Shades of Grey was seductive, wait until you see the Dark Knight I have in store for you.

Seth Lugo – Lugo you want to get with this.

Rafael Montero – You might as well be my Valentine because we both know there’s not getting rid of me not matter how awful I am.

Addison Reed – You and Me Addison up to a great Valentine’s Day

Hansel Robles – You’re so hot right now

Fernando Salas – If I had to the same again, I would, my Valentine, Fernando

Josh Smoker – You’re so hot, I can see the Smoker from miles away

Noah Syndergaard – Can you handle this god’s thunder?

Yoenis Cespedes – There’s a lot of Potencia between you and I Valentine

Travis d’Arnaud – d’Arnaud it pains me to be apart from you

Lucas Duda – Duda right thing and be my Valentine

Wilmer Flores – I’ll cry if you put me in the Friends zone

Amed Rosario – Don’t Be Surprised Be Ready

Neil Walker – I would Walker 5,000 miles to be your Valentine

David Wright – It’s only Wright we would be Valentines

Jay Bruce – Let me be the Valentine you regret for years to come.

Michael Conforto – It’s a Conforto to know whether in NY or Vegas we’re Valentines

Curtis Granderson – It’s Grandy being your Valentine

Juan Lagares – You’re the only Juan for me

Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo I’m smiling because of you.

Ron Darling – Be my Darling this Valentine’s Day

Keith Hernandez – I mustache you to be my Valentine’s Day OR How about a Valentine’s Day mustache ride?

Happy Valentine’s Day

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The Five Aces Still May Not Pitch in the Same Rotation

Well, it has finally happened.  With Pitchers and Catchers reporting, the Mets dream rotation all has major league experience, and they are all healthy at the same time.  For a fan base that never got to see Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher all pitch together in the same rotation, this is no small event.

In fact, this is a momentous occasion where some demons can be slain, and yet, there is some debate over whether we will see each and every single one of these pitchers pitch in the same rotation:

Matt Harvey is coming off surgery to alleviate the symptoms of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS).  This surgery does not have the same history as Tommy John, so while there is always reason to believe in Harvey due to his drive and determination, there is some doubt as to how TOS will affect him in the future.

Jacob deGrom is coming off surgery to re-position his ulnar nerve.  As far as pitcher elbow surgeries, this is as easy as it gets.  And yet, whenever a pitcher gets elbow surgery, especially when that pitcher has once had Tommy John surgery, it gives you pause.

Steven Matz has pitched in the majors for parts of two seasons, and he was injury prone in both of those seasons.  Last season, it was a surgery to remove what was categorized as a massive bone spur.  Now that it is gone, he should be free and clear to resume being the pitcher we think he can be.  Still, he is one more injury away from us questioning if he, like Travis d’Arnaud, will ever be healthy.

Zack Wheeler has not taken the mound in over two seasons due to his Tommy John and his difficulties and setbacks during the rehabilitation process.  Fortunately, he seems ready to go, but he is at this point, we have no idea.

Noah Syndergaard has largely come through two seasons unscathed, and he has emerged as the staff ace.  And yet, with his being a pitcher, moreover his being a Mets pitcher, you hold your breath.  While you get excited about him adding muscle and his talk about wanting to throw harder, it should also give you some nervousness.

And yet despite all of these concerns and red flags, this is a great day.  The dream that was set in motion with the Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey trades is close to coming to fruition.  And with these five pitchers going to the mound, it is going to be extremely difficult for the opposition to out-pitch this quintet.  It is going to be even harder to beat the Mets when they take the mound.

At some point during the season, we will see all five of these pitchers in the rotation, and if we don’t that might be good news.  The reason?  Well, it could be because either Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo won a job in the rotation, and they pitched well enough the Mets are loathe to move them out of the rotation.

If the Mets truly have seven pitchers capable of being in THIS starting rotation, the Mets should be primed for a great 2017 season.

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Mets May Have Enough Internal Bullpen Options

With Baseball America‘s Adam Rubin reporting the Mets are considering using low A starter P.J. Conlon out of the bullpen, the Mets are really giving the impression that they may not sign any relief pitchers this offseason. This would coincide with earlier reports the Mets may not have the budget to acquire another player unless the team is able to trade an outfielder, namely Jay Bruce. When considering the difficulties the Mets have in trading Bruce, it’s becoming increasingly more likely the Mets will use internal options to build their bullpen.

The Mets should have varying degrees of confidence in returning relief pitchers Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, and Hansel Robles. Last season, Reed and Familia combined to be the best 8-9 combination in baseball. Robles has shown versatility whether it was his bailing Jim Henderson out of a bases loaded no out jam or pitching 3.2 innings because Bartolo Colon left a game in the first inning with an injury.

While the Mets should have confidence in these three pitchers, they still need at least four other arms to complete their bullpen. Here are the leading options:

RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVERS

RHP Seth Lugo – While he should get the opportunity to compete with Robert Gsellman for a spot in the rotation, indications are Lugo will land in the bullpen. In limited bullpen duty last year, Lugo was terrific. In his nine relief appearances, he had a 2.65 ERA, 0.941 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. Pitching out of the bullpen should also permit Lugo to ramp his fastball up to 95 MPH and throw his curveball, which has the best spin rate in the majors, making him an even more dominant pitcher.

RHP Zack Wheeler – Like Lugo, Wheeler may get an opportunity to pitch in the rotation, but early indications are he will start the year in the bullpen. Wheeler’s fastball-slider combination should play well out of the bullpen, and it should lead to him recording a high number of strikeouts. Conversely, he may have a high amount of walks as well. Unfortunately, Wheeler may not be able to sustain the same workload of a relief pitcher as the Mets will likely want to ease him back after Wheeler missed two years due to Tommy John surgery.

RHP Paul Sewald – With a high 80s to low 90s fastball with a slider in the low 90s with a low 80s slider, Sewald doesn’t have the dominating stuff you would typically look for in a major league reliever. However, despite having “lesser” stuff, Sewald has succeeded at every level of the minor leagues including his being an effective closer for the 51s last year. Despite pitching in an extreme hitter’s league, Sewald had 10 saves with a 1.85 ERA, 0.945 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9 in the second half of the season.

RHP Erik Goeddel – If Goeddel can return to his 2014 – 2015 form, the Mets have a reliever they can rely upon. During that time, he was on the New York – Las Vegas shuttle making 41 major league appearances. Over that stretch, he had a 2.48 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 9.0 K/9. For many, it was believed Goeddel did it with smoke and mirrors, an impression that was given credence with his 4.54 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in 2016. With Goeddel able to strike out 9.1 batters per nine last year, he has at least shown he can get batters out, and as a result, should get another chance. His success in 2017 is going to depend on his ability to regain some of his fastball velocity or his ability to adapt to pitching without it.

RHP Chase Bradford – Like Sewald, Bradford has fringy stuff with a low 90s fastball and a low to mid 80s slider. However, unlike Sewald, Bradford has struggled in AAA. Over the past three years, Bradford has pitched to a 4.88 ERA, 1.454 WHIP, and a 7.2 K/9. It should be noted many pitchers, like Lugo, struggle in Las Vegas, only to have success in the majors.

RHP Ben Rowen – The submarine style Rowen was brought in on a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. The hope is that Rowen can be a modern version of Chad Bradford in what was an excellent 2006 Mets bullpen. However, given his low 80s fastball, and with both right-handed batters and left-handed batters hitting him hard in his brief 12 major league appearances, this seems more hope than reality.

RHP Rafael Montero – Despite being terrible for the Mets, he somehow remains a part of the Mets organization. As if his presence on the roster wasn’t baffling enough, Sandy Alderson even mentioned him as a possibility for the bullpen. (ESPN). It figures that this year is the year push comes to shove with Montero. Either he is finally going to trust his stuff and throw strikes at the major league level, or the Mets are going to designate him for assignment for someone who can.

RHP Gabriel Ynoa – Ynoa struggled with the Mets last year, but those struggles could have been the result of him being asked to pitch out of the bullpen when he’s never done that before and the team shifting him between the bullpen and rotation late in the year. Fact is Ynoa has real talent. He has a low to mid 90s fastball that he may be able to consistently get in the mid 90s if he was airing it out in the bullpen. His slider is also effective in generating a number of groundballs. With him in the bullpen as opposed to the rotation, he can primarily utilize his two best pitches to get batters out.

LEFT-HANDED RELIEVERS

LHP Josh Smoker – There are three things we learned about Smoker last year: (1) he strikes out a lot of batters; (2) left-handed batters absolutely crush him; and (3) he is not effective for more than one inning. Now, if Smoker is able to work with Dan Warthen to develop a slider to get help him get left-handed batters out, he’s got closer potential. If not, he’s still an effective arm out of the bullpen so long as Terry Collins acknowledges his limitations.

LHP Josh Edgin – Even with his reduced velocity, Edgin still showed the ability to get left-handed batters out. Until such time he re-gains his velocity, if it ever were to happen, he should primarily be used as a LOOGY. Now, with Familia, Reed, and Robles each being extremely effective against left-handed batters, the Mets are not in dire need of a LOOGY. Still, in a division with Freddie Freeman, Daniel Murphy, and Bryce Harper the Mets could benefit from having more than one pitcher who can get left-handed batters out.

LHP Sean Gilmartin – In 2015, Gilmartin was an important part of the Mets bullpen as the team’s long man. That season, he made 50 appearance pitching 57.1 innings going 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. Surprisingly, Gilmartin had reverse splits allowing a .216 batting average to right-handed batters and a .260 batting average to left-handed batters. Last, year, Gilmartin began the year in Las Vegas as a starting pitcher. Due to some bullpen issues at the major league level, the Mets had him fly on a red eye and pitch on short rest. Eventually, he would suffer a minor shoulder injury, and his promising season would tail off. Ultimately, the Mets will need a long man in 2017, and there is enough evidence here to suggest Gilmartin can competently fill that roll.

LHP David Roseboom – It’s not common for pitchers to go from AA to the Opening Day roster the next year, but Roseboom may just be capable of doing it. While a closer by trade, who is coming off a season with a 1.87 ERA, he is extremely effective against left-handed batters. Last season, he limited left-handed batters to a .141 batting average. Primarily, Roseboom is a sinker/slider pitcher who also has a change that allows him to remain effective against right-handed batters. While Roseboom primarily sits in the high 80s to the low 90s, he remains effective because he is able to effectively locate his pitches, and he induces a high rate of ground balls.

LHP P.J. Conlon – As touched on above, considering Conlon for the Opening Day roster was a surprise given he has not pitched in AA, he consistently throws in the mid to high 80s, and he was used as a starter last season. Another reason this was a surprise is the Conlon is better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters. The main reason for that is while Conlon is a four pitch pitcher, his out pitch is his change-up. Like with most left-handed pitchers, Conlon’s change-up is more effective against right-handed batters than left. Overall, it is highly unlikely he will make the Opening Day roster, but he should still benefit from the opportunity to further develop his slider.

PREDICTION

Barring unforeseen circumstances, Wheeler seems assured of being in the Opening Day bullpen with Familia, Reed, and Robles. Considering the Mets probably want to add another left-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and the fact that he is out of options, Edgin seems to be the next best guess as to a pitcher who will make the r0ster. Based upon their performance in the bullpen last year, it is likely the next two spots go to Lugo and Smoker. Right there, the Mets have a seven man bullpen with an interesting array of arms that can both register strike outs and induce ground balls to try to get a double play to get out of the inning.

If there is an injury, suspension, or someone proves to be ineffective, the Mets have interesting options behind this group in Rowen, Sewald, and Roseboom. There is also Gilmartin and Ynoa who can provide either a spot start or be able to serve in the bullpen if needed.

Ultimately, while you would feel much better with the Mets having at least one more veteran arm in the bullpen like a Jerry Blevins or a Fernando Salas, there is at least enough quality arms in the Mets system that can conceivably build a good bullpen.

 

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Good Luck Alejandro De Aza

Sometimes deals were not a good idea at their inception.  At other times, deals don’t just work out as planned.  Then there was Alejandro De Aza‘s tenure with the New York Mets.

Back when De Aza signed with the Mets, he was supposed to be the left-handed platoon option to go along with Juan Lagares in center field.  It was an extremely unpopular signing at the time beacause it was a clear indication the Mets were not going to sign Yoenis Cespedes.  Except the Mets, due to a combination of sheer luck and the depth of top end outfielders on the market, did actually re-sign Cespedes.

Just like that De Aza went from the platoon partner getting the bulk of the at-bats to being the team’s fifth outfielder.  Considering the talent level ahead of him,  he seemed like he was going to be the team’s seldom used fifth outfielder.  Anyone would struggle under those circumstances, and De Aza did.

In the beginning of July, he was only batting .158 with just five extra base hits.  Keep in mind, both of those extra base hits came in the same game.  Essentially, the irregular to lack of playing time was wrecking havoc with his ability to produce, and it was affecting him mentally.  It got to the point where Terry Collins began to question his work ethic.

With all that in mind, De Aza deserves a lot of credit.  De Aza went on a tear in July hitting .375/.487/.531 in 21 games and six games started.  The tear came at the right time too because it was a Mets team seemingly falling apart.  Lagares had a thumb issue.  Cespedes would deal with a quad injury.  Both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto were struggling as well.  In fact, the entire Mets offense including Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera was struggling.  The Mets needed this boost from him, and they go it.

De Aza would also step up as the Mets were making a push for the Wild Card.  In a crucial late August series against the Cardinals, with Seth Lugo making his second ever major league start, De Aza came up huge not only robbing Matt Carpenter of a home run in the first at-bat in the bottom of the first, but also by hitting his own three run home run.  It was all part of how De Aza came up big when the Mets needed in most.  In fact, over the final month of the season, he would hit .265/.366/.353 in 25 games.

Overall, De Aza’s tenure with the Mets was a disappointing one with all involved.  However, he made significant contributions to the Mets when they needed them most.  That should never be overlooked even if ultimately he was usually the outfielder overlooked when Collins was filling out the lineup card.

De Aza’s struggles are a large reason why he was only able to muster a minor league deal with the Oakland Athletics.  With that said, he is in a much better situation than he was in 2016.  This should allow him to return to being the player he never really got the chance to be with the Mets.  Hopefully, he gets back to that point.

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New Year’s Resolutions

We are headed for another season of Mets baseball where we hope that once again these Mets can make it all the way back to the World Series.  Since 2015, we have seen a definite pattern emerge with the Mets, and I think as Mets fans, we should all try better this year to not react, some would say overreact, when one of the following things we know will happen, happens:

  • The Mets are not going to sign another big name free agent this offseason.  It’s not going to happen, and it just may happen that Jose Bautista winds up in the division and on a fairly discounted deal;
  • Jerry Blevins will sign an extremely reasonable two year deal . . . with another team;
  • Instead of fortifying the bench, the Mets are going to go with this year’s version of Eric Campbell -> Ty Kelly;
  • Terry Collins is going to use and abuse Addison Reed to the point where his arm may actually fall off.  This will go double if Jeurys Familia gets suspended;
  • Hansel Robles is going to go through a stretch in one week where he pitches five innings, 1/3 of an inning, two innings, and three innings, and everyone is going to wonder why his production has fallen off;
  • The infield of Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, David Wright, and Asdrubal Cabrera will be ridden hard despite their injury histories and capable backups like Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes on the bench;
  • Just pick a random player on the roster – he’s going to be on the DL for over two months with a back injury;
  • There will be a game with Reyes in center and Juan Lagares in right;
  • Travis d’Arnaud is going to get injured, and Kevin Plawecki is not going to be able to replace his bat in the lineup;
  • Matt Harvey will complain about the six man rotation that will be implemented at some point during the season;
  • Robert Gsellman will make an appearance throwing well over 100 pitches in five innings or less;
  • Rene Rivera will hit under the Mendoza Line;
  • T.J. Rivera will be raking in AAA and not get called up despite the Mets needing some offense;
  • Michael Conforto will not face one left-handed pitcher all season;
  • Yoenis Cespedes will not dive for a ball, run out a pop up, or run hard to first on a dropped strike three;
  • Curtis Granderson will have a better OBP than Reyes, but Collins will continue to lead off Reyes and his sub .330 OBP;
  • Collins will not know if Brandon Nimmo is faster than Flores and it will cost them a game;
  • No matter where he winds up this offseason, and no matter how poor his year is going, Chase Utley will hit two home runs in a game he faces the Mets;
  • Sandy Alderson will mortgage a part of the Mets future because he didn’t make a move in the offseason that he should have made;
  • Paul Sewald will pitch well in AAA, but the Mets won’t call him up because they would rather rip Sean Gilmartin or Gabriel Ynoa from the Vegas rotation to make a relief appearance on 2-3 days of rest;
  • Both Josh Smoker and Robles will be fully warmed up, and Collins will go to Smoker to pitch to the lefty;
  • For reasons the Mets themselves can’t quite explain, Rafael Montero will spend the full season on the 40 man roster;
  • d’Arnaud will come off the disabled list, play well for a stretch, and the Mets will lose him and Steven Matz in the same game;
  • Matz will have appendicitis, but the Mets will talk him out of the surgery because they need him to start against the Reds;
  • Dilson Herrera will tear it up every time he plays the Mets;
  • Wherever he lands, Jay Bruce is going to hit 30 homers and 100 RBI;
  • Collins will show up in the dugout without wearing pants, and the Mets still won’t fire him;
  • Noah Syndergaard will get ejected from a game for throwing inside.  A player who takes a bat to one of the Mets infielders in retaliation won’t;
  • Fans will clamor for Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith to get called up all season long;
  • Seth Lugo will bounce between the bullpen and rotation so much, MLB is actually going to test him to see if his arm is actually made out of rubber;
  • Bartolo Colon will pitch so poorly against the Mets, fans will wonder why they wanted a bum like him back;
  • R.A. Dickey will not only beat the Mets, but he will throw the team into a week  long offensive funk causing some fans to decry the trade;
  • One or more pitchers will get hurt, and fans that even question if the Warthen Slider could be an issue will be mocked mercilessly;
  • Some way some how Jon Niese will pitch for this team;
  • Rather than build Tom Seaver a statue, the Mets will issue #41 to Niese upon his return to the team;
  • Daniel Murphy will have another terrific year for the Nationals, and some Mets fans will still defend the decision to let him go;
  • Ricky Knapp will make a solid spot start for the Mets causing fans to think he is the second coming;
  • Mets will trade a good prospect for Kelly Johnson; and
  • Despite all of this the Mets will make it to the postseason

Honestly, I give it until April 9th when Collins declares the last game in a three game set against the Marlins is a must-win game.

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Michael Conforto Should Play For Team Italy

Team Italy is recruiting Michael Conforto to play for them in the World Baseball Classic.  They have gone so far as to name Conforto to their preliminary roster, along with fellow Met Brandon Nimmo, despite not having heard back from Conforto regarding his willingness to play in the tournament.

By many accounts, it seems doubtful Conforto will play in the tournament.  Earlier, Conforto had listened to his advisers in rebuffing Terry Collins‘ request that Conforto play Winter Ball.  The decision was grounded in many factors included risk of injury and level of competition.  Arguably, the same concerns would present itself with the WBC leading to Conforto ultimately deciding not to play for Italy.

That would be a mistake.

The first reason why it would be a mistake is Conforto would miss out on an opportunity to work closely with Mike Piazza.  In 1998, Piazza struggled with the Mets, and he was booed by the fans.  Piazza was able to overcome the booing, and he helped bring the Mets to the precipice of the Wild Card.  In subsequent years, Piazza was the superstar who led the Mets to consecutive postseason appearances.  He is also the first Mets position player to have his number retired and be inducted in the Hall of Fame.

Considering Conforto’s struggles in 2016, there are few people on this planet who can better help him than Piazza.  Piazza understands what is means to struggle with the Mets, and how to overcome those struggles to become one of the best and most beloved players in Mets history.  Essentially, Piazza understands what Conforto has gone through, and better yet, he understands what it takes to get to that next level.  That next level is where Conforto wants to be as a player.

However, it is more than mental.  Piazza has widely credited for Team Italy’s unexpected run in the 2013 WBC.  Cubs first baseman, Anthony Rizzo said of Piazza, “In my opinion, he’s a Hall of Famer. When he opens his mouth, you listen. He just makes you so relaxed.  He’d be a great hitting coach.” (USA Today).

While Piazza is not the hitting coach for Team Italy anymore, the effect Piazza has on players is well noted.

Speaking of Rizzo, another important factor is Conforto will get to experience being the focal point of an offense as he is bound to be one of the better players on Team Italy.  Conforto is likely going to be pitched tough by some of the best pitchers in the world.  As it stands, Italy is in Pool D with Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela.  It’s already been confirmed that Oliver Perez, Roberto Osuna, Felix Hernandez, and Francisco Rodriguez, and Seth Lugo will pitch.  As we have seen in year’s past, there will be many more quality pitchers Conforto will have to contend with in real pressure packed situations.  That is a good thing for a player still developing into a middle of the order bat.  It’s also better thatn getting on a bus to face another team’s AA, AAA, and AAAA pitchers.

Another factor for Conforto is the WBC gives him an opportunity to get out from the pressure of New York for a while and try to improve as a player.  It could be helpful to get out from under the constant, and at times difficult, New York media, and go play for Team Italy.  With Team Italy, it may be easier to focus on improving as a ballplayer. Furthermore, with coaches like Piazza, it may be helpful to hear another voice that can help him either mechanically or mentally.

Overall, there are many benefits for Conforto playing in the WBC.  It is an opportunity that is in front of him, and it is one he should probably take, especially when you consider how much someone like Piazza can help him.

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