Seth Lugo
It started early for the Mets. Steven Matz was injured before Opening Day, and the Mets again wondering what is really wrong with him. Seth Lugo pitched in the World Baseball Classic, partially tore his UCL, and he is going to try to rehab it rather than having Tommy John surgery. Indirectly, this led to Rafael Montero pitching like, well, Montero. It also led to a less than inspiring performance by Adam Wilk.
Noah Syndergaard is gone for an extended period of time with a torn lat. Matt Harvey has been suspended three games for failing to show up at the ballpark. Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda have not played in a few weeks, and there are just rumors that they are soon to return. Travis d’Arnaud is yet again on the disabled list himself, and as usual we are unaware when he can return. Once again, Asdrubal Cabrera has been hobbled in the early part of the season leading everyone to wonder when the Mets finally put him on the disabled list.
Jeurys Familia was suspended for the first few weeks of the season, and he was not sharp immediately upon his return. Addison Reed struggled in his adaption to closer and again in his transition to the eighth inning reliever. Fernando Salas just struggled, and Josh Smoker has probably struggled more than Reed and Salas combined.
Jose Reyes was hitting .095 midway through April. Curtis Granderson entered the month hitting just .128. Neil Walker is under the Mendoza Line against right-handed pitching, and he entered the month of May hitting just .195. Wilmer Flores cannot his right-handed pitching. Juan Lagares can’t hit any pitching.
The end result was the Mets losing six in a row and 10 of 11. Already, people were starting to wonder if this team was similar to the 1992 or the 2009 Mets teams. Despite all of this, the Mets are back at .500 and second place in the National League East. How did it happen?
Well, for starters young and under utilized players have stepped up. Michael Conforto went from the bench to one of the best hitters in baseball. For the second straight season, T.J. Rivera has taken complete advantage of an unexpected opportunity being given to him. Josh Edgin has become a dominant LOOGY in the bullpen. We have even seen Paul Sewald step up pitching terrifically after some initial hiccups.
Then there are the veterans who have had career best seasons so far. Jay Bruce is on base to put up career best numbers in every offensive category. Jerry Blevins has been used almost every game, and he is putting up better numbers than he did last year’s career best season for him. Rene Rivera is hitting over .300. Hansel Robles is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 16 appearances.
More than there, the Mets have exhibited some professional pride. Reyes is hitting .282/.341/.564 with three doubles, a triple, two homers, nine RBI and a stolen base over his last 10 games. Granderson has hit .250/.368/.625 with three doubles, a homer, and four RBI over his last five games. Walker has hit .276/.364/.414 with four doubles and four RBI in the month of May.
In addition, the bullpen has been much better of late. Familia has had five straight scoreless outings. Reed has allowed just two hits with no runs in the month of May. Terry Collins has been more judicious in his use of Salas, and Salas has not allowed any runs in his last five appearances. With Blevins, Edgin, and Robles continuing their outstanding seasons, this has become the dominant bullpen everyone envisioned it would be to start the year.
With the combination of the resurgent veterans and the outstanding young player, the Mets are winning again. In the month of May, the Mets lead the majors in runs scored. They are fifth in the National League in homers. However, unlike last year, the Mets do not need homers to score runs. The Mets .320 team batting average and .517 slugging with runners in scoring position is second best in the majors, and its .419 OBP with runners in scoring position is the best in baseball.
Despite all the noise around the Mets, this team is playing its best baseball of the season. Once their pitching gets relatively healthy, and their current pitchers pitch close to their true talent levels, this team will once again be one of the best teams in all of baseball. Until then, this current group of Mets will make sure the Washington Nationals will be within shouting distance allowing the Mets to compete for the division.
Yet again, the Mets have had to turn to Rafael Montero to make a start because there weren’t better options for the Mets. There weren’t better options because Sandy Alderson believed the Mets had enough starting pitching to never need to sign a veteran signing pitcher. As we have seen, this was a miscalculation.
Lost in the excitement of the Mets having seven starting pitchers was the fact that pitchers break down. This pitching staff exemplifies this axiom. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz were coming off season ending surgeries. For his part, Matz is seemingly never healthy. Zack Wheeler hadn’t pitched in over two years due to his having Tommy John surgery and the ensuing complications therefrom. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo were terrific in September of last year, but it was against some fairly weak competition. Also, it is likely both were going to be on some form of an innings limit. Finally, there was Noah Syndergaard, who seemed indestructible.
Now, we could have anticipated Matz doing down, but the other manner in which the Mets have turned to Montero and Adam Wilk has been a surprise. No one expected Lugo to suffer a torn UCL. Syndergaard tearing his lat never could have been reasonably anticipated, nor was the Mets needing to suspend Harvey. Still, given the relative injury histories, it was certainly plausible the Mets would be down three plus pitchers at any point of the season. It was also plausible because pitchers break.
Despite this, Alderson moved both Logan Verrett and Gabriel Ynoa to the Orioles in separate deals. Both moves were defensible because the Mets needed space on the 40 man roster to accommodate free agent signings. Still, those arms needed to be replaced by cheap veterans who could be stashed in Triple-A, or the Mets could have signed a swingman who could have served in long relief and be available to make a spot start.
Now, we know players like Doug Fister and Colby Lewis likely weren’t signing unless they got minor league deals. Still, there were pitchers like Jon Niese and Dillon Gee available. Mets fans may not love them, but they are certainly better than Montero. There was also Scott Feldman who has served in both relief and long man roles, and he signed with the Reds for just $2.3 million. There are several other names like Jake Peavy who at least has the veteran guile to gut through five innings. Instead, the Mets stuck with Sean Gilmartin, who they won’t even trust to make a start, and they signed Wilk who is not a viable major league pitcher.
And now, the once vaunted Mets starting pitching is a mess, and it is up to Alderson to fix it. This is the same Alderson who has been very cavalier in moving pitching the past few seasons to help fix the weaknesses in teams he has built. So far, his answer has been Milone who has a 6.43 ERA in six starts this season. That’s hardly an answer.
Likely, Alderson’s real answer is to hope for some health with presumably both Matz and Lugo will be ready by the end of the month. Maybe this time the health plan with work.
It’s apparent Rafael Montero doesn’t have it. He has all the talent in the world. Talent enough to lead the Mets to give him chance after chance after chance. He’s squandered them all. Last night was the latest example with him allowing five earned over 3.2 innings. The Mets cannot in good conscience let him make another start for this team.
Just like the Mets were forced to do last season, it is time to give someone else a chance. Last year meant Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Gsellman thrived, and as a result, he made the Opening Day rotation. Lugo was making a name for himself in the World Baseball Classic until a slight tear in his UCL was discovered. Lugo’s absence has been really felt with the injuries to Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard. With him and Matz still weeks away, the Mets need to figure out who should get a chance to pitch in the rotation.
As noted above, Montero has squandered that chance. It is time to give someone else a shot. Unfortunately, there are no stand outs right now in Triple-A meaning the Mets are going to have to take a chance on someone. That pitcher should be Ricky Knapp.
Knapp is the son of former major league pitching coach Richard Knapp. It should then come as no surprise that Knapp has repeatable and clean mechanics. He’s also a four pitch pitcher that really doesn’t have one outstanding pitch. Accordingly, Knapp is reliant upon location, mixing up his pitches, and pitching to contact in order to get batters out. He has been largely successful in that because Knapp keeps the ball on the ground having a 1.46 ground out to fly out ratio. As a result, Knapp has gone deep into games with him leading the Mets organization with three complete games last year.
As it so happens, Knapp is not the type of pitcher that typically thrives in Vegas. That is quite evident in Knapp’s stats to start the season. Through his first six starts, he is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. This makes him yet another Mets pitching prospect who is struggling in Vegas. Still, there are some signs of hope for him going forward.
Knapp is walking 2.1 batters per nine innings which is lower than his 2.3 BB/9 in his minor league career. In his two road games, Knapp is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His opponents have a .328 BABIP this season which is higher than the .299 BABIP batters have against him in his minor league career or the .274 BABIP Double-A batters had against him. With a normalized BABIP and with Knapp replicating his numbers on the road, there is a strong case that can be made Knapp could succeed at the major league level.
Overall, there are signs for hope for Knapp to be able to succeed with the Mets. Those hopes should be elevated when you consider Knapp will have the opportunity to work with Dan Warthen. At the very least, he can’t be worse than Montero. For that reason alone, the Mets should give him a shot until Lugo or Matz are ready.
With the injuries to Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, Seth Lugo, and Steven Matz, the Mets have not jumped out of the gate quite like we all expected. Entering this three game set with the Nationals, the Mets are 5.5 games out in the division. If they suffer another sweep at the hands of Daniel Murphy and the Nationals, they will fall to 8.5 games out.
And yet, this is not the worst the Mets have ever had it. In each of the six times they have won the division, they have trailed at some point in the season. There are multiple occasions where the Mets trailed in the division by double digit games. Can you name each deficit overcome by the Mets when they have won the division? Good luck!
Given the fact that it was his second start since missing two plus years due to Tommy John surgery and the fact that the Mets were down to five starters with the Steven Matz and Seth Lugo injuries, Zack Wheeler‘s start had more importance attached to it than usual.
After a 13 pitch scoreless first inning, things were looking good. He was hitting his spots, and he was hitting 97 on the gun. Then again that’s what happened in his first start. The real test was from the second inning on.
Wheeler passed the test with flying colors. He maintained both his velocity and control. While he was getting the benefit of some excellent pitch framing from Travis d’Arnaud, Wheeler put the ball where d’Arnaud put his mitt.
Wheeler put together a stretch of eleven straight retired. That ended in the sixth when he finally started to struggle with his location and velocity.
There were runners on first and second with one out. Wheeler reached back and got a huge strikeout of Howie Kendrick, but Wheeler lost it all and walked Odubel Herrera. After 5.2 innings, Collins went to Hansel Robles.
Third straight day of pitching or not, Robles made a horrendous pitch to what amounts to the Phillies only real power threat. The first pitch hung down the middle of the plate, and Maikel Franco launched it for a grand slam.
The grand slam put somewhat of a damper on what was a terrific start for Wheeler. His final line was 5.2 innings, four hits, three runs, three earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
Arguably, it was the best Wheeler has ever looked in a Mets uniform. Certainly, it was his most important start. The effort earned him a well deserved and long awaited win.
The Mets offense was humming once again even if Vince Velasquez was pitching pretty well.
It all got started with surprise lead off hitter Michael Conforto getting the lead-off single and scoring on a Yoenis Cespedes RBI double. The score would become 2-0 when Conforto did this:
Michael Conforto got some extension on that home run. He crushed it a projected 422 feet, off the bat at 108.1 mph. #Mets pic.twitter.com/ElRj8AlVUX
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 13, 2017
Like a true lead-off hitter and table setter, Conforto was in the middle of the next rally.
The fifth inning started with d’Arnaud getting hit by a pitch, and like the smart player he is waiving off Ray Ramirez:
lmao look at Travis d'Arnaud running away from Ray Ramirez…what a smart kid. Wants no part of him #Mets pic.twitter.com/PjtsVm9YMe
— MetsKevin11 (@MetsKevin11) April 13, 2017
Wheeler tried to bunt him over, but the Phillies walked him instead. Velasquez then walked Conforto to load the bases. Asdrubal Cabrera, the same player who had an 0-32 streak with RISP last year, came to the plate.
Cabrera delivered with a two RBI single making him 5-5 with RISP to begin the season. Conforto then scored on a Cespedes sacrifice fly to make it 5-0. As noted above, the Mets needed all of those runs.
Fortunately, the rest of the Mets bullpen locked the game down. Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, and Addison Reed combined to pitch 2.2 scoreless innings to preserve the 2.2 innings, the 5-4 win, and the series sweep.
The Mets certainly got healthy in Philadelphia, and they have momentum as they take their rejuvenated talents to South Beach.
Game Notes: Curtis Granderson was just given the day off. There were no injury issues. Jose Reyes batted seventh again. He went 0-4, and is now 1-10 from the seventh spot in the lineup.
With Opening Day already behind us, it is now time to look forward to see how the rest of the 2017 season will progress. Yes, this is the typically ill-fated projections post. As with anything else, this will likely be wrong by season’s end, and with any luck, I will be reminded of it come October.
AL East – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won the division last year with an MVP caliber season from Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello with a more ways than one surprising Cy Young season, and lots of young talent. The team will be hurt by the loss of David Ortiz, but they will be helped by the addition of Chris Sale, who should help boost a rotation that has David Price as a question mark. Considering the rest of the AL East downgraded as well, it it fair to surmise the downgraded Red Sox roster will stay on top.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
So, the American League Pennant winners add Edwin Encarnacion, get Michael Brantley back, and return Carlos Correa from injury? That’s the rich getting richer. This team is poised to not only win the division again, but they should be poised to return to the World Series.
AL West – Texas Rangers
This team is truly going to benefit from a full season of Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate, and they are also going to benefit from a full season from Yu Darvish. Combine that with a good bullpen, an excellent manager in Jeff Banister, and veteran leaders in Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, you have a team that will get the most of its roster and be able to win those close and tight games like they did last year.
AL Wild Card 1 – Houston Astros
The Astros will probably lose the division due to the lack of depth in their starting pitching. However, with a deep lineup that has George Springer–Alex Bregman–Jose Altuve–Carlos Correa–Carlos Beltran as their top five hitters. Combine that with Beltran’s leadership and mentoring of young players, and this is a team that will give the Rangers all they can give them.
AL Wild Card 2 – Seattle Mariners
The Mariners fell heartbreakingly short last season, and they have improved the roster with Jerry DiPoto suddenly becoming Trader Jack McKeon. To name a few, the Mariners added Jean Segura, Yovani Gallardo, and Drew Smyly to what was already a pretty good team with Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.
NL East – New York Mets
The Nationals are certainly more formidable than they were last year with them having a full year of Trea Turner and with the Adam Eaton acquisition. However, on the pitching side, they do not have the depth they typically have, and that is an issue with Stephen Strasburg‘s medical history and Max Scherzer having questionable health entering the season. Ultimately, it is the Mets depth that should carry the team over the Nationals in what promises to be a tight race.
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
They won the World Series last year, and they get Kyle Schwarber back into the lineup everyday and add Wade Davis to the bullpen. The real question is not whether they win the division, but whether they get to 100 wins again.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
Like with the National League East, the top two teams are very close, and it’s picking hairs to separate them. If you look at it Clayton Kershaw is better than Madison Bumgarner. Kenley Jansen is better than Mark Melancon. Johnny Cueto is better than another other pitcher the Dodgers have, but the Dodgers have a deeper rotation than the Giants. The Dodgers also arguably have the deeper lineup. If it goes in the reverse, no one should be surprised, but ultimately, the Dodgers appear better on paper.
NL Wild Card 1 – San Francisco Giants
When you have Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and two aces atop your rotation, it is hard to believe you are going to miss the postseason in its entirety.
NL Wild Card 2 – Washington Nationals
While the team is not deep and has some issues, there are real strengths. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are as good and as clutch a 3-4 combination as there is. The bullpen with Koda Glover, Joe Blanton, Shawn Kelley, and Blake Treinen could be dominant. Again, their only real question is health.
Postseason Series
AL Wild Card Game – Postseason Beltran and the Astros offense overcomes King Felix in his first ever postseason start.
ALDS – In what proves to be a slugfest, the better Astros lineup carries them past the Red Sox. In the other ALDS matchup, the Indians pitching, including the unleashing of Andrew Miller proves to be too much for the Rangers.
ALCS – The Indians pitching proves to be too much for a hot hitting Astros team leading them to consecutive World Series appearances.
NL Wild Card Game – Pick your reason: (1) Bumgarner; or (2) it’s technically a postseason series.
NLDS – This year, the Giants with an improved bullpen won’t be denied as Cueto and Bumgarner led the Giants past the Cubs. The Mets and the Dodgers 2015 NLDS matchup is not as intense as the Dodgers only have Kershaw to match the Mets aces leaving the Mets to be able to get past them a little easier this go-round.
NLCS – Bumgarner and Cueto are offset by Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. After that, the Mets can pick from Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Zack Wheeler, or maybe even Seth Lugo. You’d probably take any of them over the Giants next best starter Jeff Samardzija. As such, the Mets pitching outlasts the Giants pitching.
World Series – As painful as this is to say, Terry Francona just manages his way around Terry Collins and brings the Indians their first World Series title since 1948.
After Matt Harvey‘s terrific start last night, most Mets fans were a little more optimistic about Zack Wheeler‘s first start after missing two years due to his Tommy John surgery.
That optimism crew to a crescendo after Wheeler’s first inning of work. He was getting it up to 98 MPH. He struck out A.J. Ellis and Christian Yelich to end the inning.
Wheeler got his lead in the bottom of the first when Curtis Granderson got a two out RBI single off Marlis starter Wei-Yin Chen to score Asdrubal Cabrera. It was already Granderson’s second two out hit with RISP this season. He had four all of last year.
At this point, the Mets were looking good. It was too soon to say the Mets were in control, but based on the first inning, confidence was building.
Unfortunately, Wheeler would struggle the rest of the game. In the second, Derek Dietrich hit a two run triple giving the Marlins the lead. He later scored on an Adeiny Hechavarria RBI groundout.
The third inning saw Yelich hit a two run homer off the right field could pole increasing the Marlins lead to 5-1. Dating back to last season, Yelich has homered in his last four games at Citi Field.
By the end of the fourth, Wheeler threw 80 pitches, and he was done for the night. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
There were plenty of reasons for the struggles; the least of which was Wheeler hasn’t pitched in over two years. It was a cold and very windy night. The outfielders were fighting every fly ball. Wheeler couldn’t get an off speed pitch over the plate. He seemed to lose his velocity after the first inning. Another factor was he was supposed to be in Extended Spring Training to work on these things.
Still, there were some positive signs for Wheeler, and it is something he can build upon.
Unfortunately, the same thing can’t be said for Josh Smoker who really struggled when he took over for Wheeler in the fifth. By the way, this was the spot for Montero because you’re looking for your long man, but that’s Terry for you.
Smoker was first done in as Yoenis Cespedes misread a ball hit by Yelich. Smoker followed that by issuing back-to-back walks to Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour. Marcell Ozuna and Dietrich followed with RBI singles. After throwing 27 pitches, Smoker was done leaving the bases loaded with one out.
Surprisingly, Rafael Montero bailed out Smoker by getting Hechavarria to ground into the 1-2-3 double play.
If you’re looking for a bright spot on the night, it was definitely Montero. Montero came in and attacked the Marlins hitters. Overall, he pitched 2.2 innings yielding just one hit and two walks while striking out two. This was an important outing for both him and the Mets. He needed this outing considering his previous outing, Wheeler’s struggles, and the injuries to Seth Lugo and Steven Matz.
The Mets had a chance to get back in the game with Granderson and Neil Walker hitting consecutive one out singles. Jay Bruce ended the rally grounding into the inning ending 6-4-3 double play.
It was just one of those nights. Simply put when Montero and Josh Edgin are your best pitchers, it’s not going to be a good night. To be fair, Montero and Edgin were quite good. Offensively, the only highlight was Granderson who was 2-4 with an RBI.
Well, that and Cespedes homered in the eighth. It was his first of the year.
.@ynscspds crushes his first homer of the year!
7-2 Miami | Bot-8 pic.twitter.com/gJQmOM9UTp
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 8, 2017
This game was the epitome of “you can’t win ’em all.” The game was so bad, GKR was flipping through baseball cards and discussing pizza toppings. Mets just need to forget about this 7-2 loss and get ready for tomorrow night’s game.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes went 0-5 tonight putting him at 1-18 on the year. Still, it was Lucas Duda who sat in favor of Wilmer Flores. Rene Rivera started in place of Travis d’Arnaud because Terry perceived Rivera and Wheeler worked well together and to combat the Marlins running game. Wheeler allowed five runs over four innings, and Dee Gordon stole a base.
With the injuries to both Steven Matz and Seth Lugo, the safety net was gone. Not only did Matt Harvey have to begin the year in the rotation, but he was going to have to be the Harvey of old to give the Mets a chance to fulfill their hopes of reclaiming the National League East.
During Spring Training, that was far from a certainty. His velocity and confidence were all over the place. It was not until the end of Spring Training that Harvey began to look more like his old self. Still, when he took the mound on a cold wet night, there was doubt as to what we would be.
Harvey was great.
Now, it wasn’t quite the Harvey of old. He featured his two seamer more almost scrapping his four seamer. Instead of being in the upper 90s, he was sitting mostly at 94. He pitched more to contact than rack up the strikeouts. Still, his secondary pitches were there, especially his vaunted slider. With that, he might not have been the 2013 or 2015 Harvey, but he was still great.
His only mistake was a thigh high fastball to Matt Kemp who deposited the pitch into the left field seats giving the Braves a 1-0 lead.
In a rare sight for a pitcher who has historically gotten low run support, the Mets responded right away in the bottom of the fifth.
Neil Walker finally got his first hit of the year. The red hot Jay Bruce followed with a single of his own. Both would score on Travis d’Arnaud‘s RBI double.
It was a huge hit for d’Arnaud bot just because it gave the Mets the lead, but also because it was his first RBI off a left-handed pitcher since September 14, 2015. That’s not a typo – d’Arnaud had no RBIs off a left-handed pitcher last year. In what is a huge year for d’Arnaud, he got his first big hit.
In the sixth, Wilmer Flores, who absolutely kills left-handed pitching, hit a two run homer right down the left field line off Jaime Garcia to give the Mets a 4-1 lead.
https://twitter.com/mets/status/850148178263408640
Those four runs were enough for Harvey. Harvey lasted 6.2 innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, no walks, and four strikeouts. Two of his four strikeouts came in the seventh as he was pushing towards the finish line. He was then chased by Kemp’s second homer of the night.
You honestly could not have expected more from Harvey. He was economical throwing just 77 pitches. He pitched to contact and enduced weak contact. He dominated. With that, the Mets rotation looks great again.
Jerry Blevins got the last out of the inning before turning it over to Fernando Salas and Addison Reed. Salas faced a bases loaded two out jam, but he was able to get out of it by striking out Swanson.
There would be no save opportunity as the Mets added two in the seventh to make it a 6-2 game. Asdrubal Cabrera singled home Michael Conforto, who was hit by a pitch when pinch hitting for Blevins. Later in the inning, Reyes scored when Dansby Swanson threw the ball offline trying to complete a double play on the Yoenis Cespedes grounder.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes got his first base hit after having started the year going 0-12. Flores got the start over Lucas Duda with the left-handed pitcher on the mound. Tim Tebow hit an opposite field home run in his first at-bat for Columbia
Breaking: Tim Tebow homers in his first at-bat. Are you kidding me? pic.twitter.com/tzal9jtvyH
— Mike Uva (@Mike_Uva) April 6, 2017