Seth Lugo

Callaway’s Third Managerial Test

If you look at the Mets first eight games of the season, Mickey Callaway has already been tested twice.  The first test came in the first five games of the season against the Cardinals and the Phillies.

In those five games, Callaway had to show everyone he wasn’t Gabe Kapler or Aaron Boone.  Put another way, he had to show us and his team he knew what he was doing.  He showed that mettle which has escaped both Kapler and Boone thus far in his putting his team in their best position to win a game.  More than that, he capably sat Brandon Nimmo after a big game and played Juan Lagares by justifying it to the media and his team rather than simply pointing to numbers.  Yes, Callaway used the numbers to inform his decision, but he handled his situation capably with no griping from the fans or team.

The next test came much earlier for Callaway than it comes for most managers. That test was whether he had the ability to manage in a big series.

We can argue whether an April series is ever truly a big series.  What we cannot argue is Callaway managed it like it was one, and his team responded in kind sweeping the Nationals and announcing this was a team to beat in the National League East.

Part of managing this like a big series was riding his bullpen arms hard.  Jeurys Familia pitched 1.2 innings for the save, and he has pitched six innings over his first five appearances.  Robert Gsellman pitched two games in the series, and he has made two two inning appearances over a four day span.

Seth Lugo was given the heaviest workload.  Two days after pitching two innings, he was used for an inning to close out an 8-2 game.  Three days later, he’s pitching three innings and picking up the win in a 12 inning game.

When it is a big series, and when you have short starts from both Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, you can certainly understand why Callaway rode his top guns the way he did.  The Mets had a chance to make a statement in that series, and they did.

Now, the Mets are not sneaking up on anyone.  We know they’re good, and the rest of baseball knows it now too.  The question is how does Callaway handle it.

Does he continue to ask his top relievers to keep going to the well, or do we start to see more innings from Paul Sewald (likely to be demoted when Zack Wheeler is activated), or Jacob Rhame, who made a statement of his own closing out Sunday’s win?  Really, how does this Mets team respond to success?

Do they continue looking like a team having fun grinding the salt and pepper shakers?  Are they going to be alright with splitting playing time or staying on the bench for stretches?

We don’t know the answer to those questions yet.  However, we do see Callaway is the type of manager who can deftly handle these and all questions this team is going to face.  Hopefully, we will see Callaway pass this third test with flying colors like he did with the first two tests.

Mets Let Nationals Know NL East Up for Grabs with Sweep of Nationals

All night long, it appeared Mickey Callaway was content to play with fire.  Tonight, he went too long with both Matt Harvey and Robert Gsellman, and it burned the Mets.  The question was whether it was going to cost the Mets the game.

Heading into the bottom of the fifth, the Mets had a 4-2 lead with both teams scoring runs off of big homers.  The Nationals came in the first when Bryce Harper, who once literally could not hit Harvey, hit a monster two run homer.

In the third, Tanner Roark completely lost the strike zone issuing three straight two out walks.  By the time he straightened himself out and threw a strike, Adrian Gonzalez wiould hit it for a grand slam giving the Mets a 4-2 lead:

The Nationals got a run back in the fourth against a laboring Harvey.  Harvey would allow an RBI double to Pedro Severino, and he had his chance to get out of the inning quickly with a Roark comebacker.  Harvey couldn’t make the play, but he would eventually get through the inning without allowing another run.  Part of the reason why was Anthony Rendon just missed a grand slam off the bat.

In the top of the fifth, Asdrubal Cabrera got a run back with a solo shot giving the Mets a 5-3 lead.

Surprisingly with Harper leading off the fifth, Callaway stuck with Harvey.  Well, Harper walked, and Matt Adams walked putting Harvey in immediate trouble.  For a split second, it seemed like Harvey would get out of it unscathed when Howie Kendrick hit into the 6-6-3 double play.  However, Trea Turner would deliver the RBI single to pull the Nationals within 5-4.

What is interesting is how things would be similar in the seventh inning.

After pitching a scoreless sixth, Callaway sent Gsellman out for a second inning even with Harper set to lead off the inning.  Gsellman wanted not part of him and issued a four pitch walk which set the inning off on the wrong foot.

Soon, it was runners on first and second with two outs, and it looked like the Mets were going to possibly get out of the inning.  Certainly, it seemed that way when a crossed up Todd Frazier was still able to get Harper out at third.  However, this time it was Michael Taylor delivering the key two out RBI single to tie the game at 5-5.

With that, a couple of questionable Callaway decisions helped turn this game into a dogfight and a battle of the bullpens.

The Mets bullpen, Seth Lugo specifically, came up huge in the ninth inning.  Harper led off the ninth because Anthony Rendon was picked off by Jerry Blevins.  This also meant Blevins was getting pulled from the game because his spot in the order was due up.

Like the rest of the Mets staff, and frankly, MLB, Lugo didn’t want Harper, and he walked him.  After throwing away a pickoff attempt and an Adams fly out to center, Harper was on third.  In response, Callaway ordered the bases loaded putting the hands directly in Lugo’s hands.  He responded with back-to-back strikeouts of Taylor and Severino to send the game into extra innings.

While Lugo was out there pitching great over three innings, the Nationals Sammy Solis was mowing down the Mets.  Over his two innings of work, he struck out five Mets.  With the way Solis was pitching, the turning point of this game was Brandon Kintzler coming into the game because the Mets have tattoed him in the first two games of this series.

It started again with a Juan Lagares bloop single to start the 12th inning.  He moved to second on a Amed Rosario sacrifice bunt.  The Nationals then walked Conforto to bring up Cespedes in a big spot.  Cespedes would deliver with the game winning RBI single to give the Mets a 6-5 lead.

With the 6-5 lead, Callaway turned to Jacob Rhame.  This was presumably because Jeurys Familia has been worked hard to start the year.  After retiring two straight, he allowed a Wilmer Difo double before getting Adam Eaton out to end the game.

It’s amazing.  The Mets went into Washington on a high after beating up on presumably lesser competition.  Now, they are 7-1 after sweeping the Nationals in their home ballpark.  Better yet, the Nationals had a chance in each game in this series, but the Mets just beat them because maybe, just maybe, the Mets are in fact the better team.

Game Notes: Opposing base stealers are a perfect 11/11 against d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki.

Strange But True Mets Minor League Facts

As we head into the 2018 season, we have seen some of these Mets prospects for a few years now, and we have made some assumptions about these players. Some of those assumptions are right on the money, and some of them, not so much. There may be some facts when brought to life which may surprise many of us. With that in mind, here are some facts about the Mets minor leagues which are sure to surprise you.

No. 1 Sandy’s First Draft Produced 11 Major Leaguers

When Sandy Alderson was entasked with rebuilding the Mets farm system, he and his staff went right to work with the 2011 draft. That draft was quite effective with the Mets producing 11 Major Leaguers from that draft.

1st Round: Brandon Nimmo & Michael Fulmer
2nd Round: Cory Mazzoni
3rd Round: Logan Verrett
4th Round: Jack Leathersich
8th Round: Daniel Muno
13th Round: Robert Gsellman
15th Round: Phillip Evans
21st Round: John Gant
34th Round: Seth Lugo
35th Round: Chasen Bradford

Almost as incredible, between trades and play on the field, nine of those players either played for a Mets team that made the postseason or were traded for a player who contributed to a Mets team that made the postseason.

No. 2 Vientos Same Age As Kranepool Was When Kranepool Debuted in the Majors

Last year, Mets second round pick Mark Vientos was the youngest player drafted at 17 years old. Amazingly, this is the same age Mets Hall of Famer Ed Kranepool was when he made his MLB debut. As a matter of fact, Kranepool was just a little more than four months older in his MLB debut than Vientos was when he made his debut in professional baseball playing in the Gulf Coast League.

No. 3 Alonso Only Player to Homer off Smith Prior to the Trade Deadline

When the New York Mets traded Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed relief prospect Drew Smith, the one stat which immediately jumped off his Baseball Reference page was the fact he had allowed just one home run all season. The person who hit that home run was his future teammate Peter Alonso. On the home run, Smith would tell MMN’s Mathew Brownstein, Alonso “brings it up probably once a week (laughs). But that’s just part of it.”

No. 4 Nimmo Drew More Walks Than Rosario in Triple-A

Last year with all of the injuries, it seemed as if Nimmo spent most if not all of his 2017 season in the majors. To a certain extent that is true with him playing just 42 games in Triple-A. That was actually 52 fewer games than Amed Rosario had in Triple-A last year. Overall, Rosario would have 227 more plate appearances for the 51s than Nimmo would have. And yet, despite all of that, Nimmo would draw 10 more walks than Rosario did in Triple-A.

No. 5 DeFrancesco’s First MLB Win Came Against the Mets

In the offseason, the Mets hired the Houston Astros Triple-A Manager Tony DeFrancesco. DeFrancesco had been a manager in the Astros organization since 2011, and during that time, he did get a 41 game opportunity to manage the Major League club after the team fired Brad Mills. After beginning his managerial career losing five straight, his Astros came to New York to face the Mets. With the Suffern, New York native’s family in the stands, his Astros team won the game 3-1.

Praying and Cheering for Conforto

Last year when Michael Conforto crumpled down to the ground in pain after a checked swing, it was every bit as much of a gut punch as when Matt Harvey‘s magical 2013 season came to an end because he needed Tommy John surgery.  The Mets future and hopes for another World Series was right there.  The bright spot in another wise lost and dismal season dimmed.

When you look up torn posterior capsule, you really feared the worst.  You feared the worst because of what you learned about the injury, but also because this is the Mets.  Things rarely break right for them on the injury front.

As Conforto rehabbed, it seemed as if the timetables for his return kept getting shorter and shorter.  With him and the Mets reporting to Spring Training, the May 1st target date seemed a bit aggressive.  After all, it was just two years ago when the Mets had given Zack Wheeler and early return date from his own Tommy John surgery only to see that date continuously pushed further back and back until the point Bartolo Colon was solidly entrenched as a starter, and the Mets were calling up Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to help save their season.

Despite the trepidation many may have had, Conforto continued to get closer and closer to returning.  Away from the lights, he played in minor league intrasquad games where he not only homered twice, but he did it off left-handed pitching.  One of those left-handed pitchers included last year’s first round draft pick David Peterson.

As the Mets started the season we kept hearing that May 1st target date was getting pushed up not by days but by weeks.  And here we are now with Conforto getting activated in advance of the Mets first series against the Nationals.

As luck would have it, he is going to be the first Met to step into the batter’s box against Stephen Strasburg.

Mets fans have quickly become enamored with Brandon Nimmo with his infectious personality, his  smiling all the time, and with his ability to draw more walks than Da Vinci.  However, Conforto is the Mets player you want up against Strasburg to set the tone for the game, the season series, and for the divisional battle between these two teams. That is, of course, assuming Conforto is 100%.

Trusting a Mets player is fully healthy and recovered from injury is really a feeling Mets fans have grown unaccustomed.  Look no further than Harvey whose Tommy John turned to TOS and whose effectiveness and ceiling have fallen off a cliff.

So yes, at the moment, Mets fans should be excited yet cautiously optimistic about the return of Conforto.  That first big swing and miss, that head first slide into a base, and that diving play in the outfield is going to take years off our lives.  That feeling will subside over time and may emerge whenever it seems Conforto takes just that extra half second before getting off the ground or getting back in the batter’s box.

That’s the life of a Mets fan, and as Mets fans we should all take time to pray his shoulder is really 100%, and that he is about to become the superstar he was on the verge of becoming last year.  Once we see he’s really good to go, we can then all cheer with the unbridled enthusiasm we had for him last year.

A Gsell Of A Win

These are the types of games that have traditionally tripped up the Mets.  Day games.  Get away games.  Games with a rain delay.  All of those things combined have always seemed to get in the Mets way.  Harkening back to 2015, these were all present in the fateful loss against the San Diego Padres which nearly derailed the Mets season.  Those conditions were present today.

With rain waiting, the game had a delayed start until 2:45.  Initially, all seemed well for the Mets.

Yoenis Cespedes hit a monster two run homer off Aaron Nola to give the Mets an early 2-0 lead.  Noah Syndergaard would start the game striking out five Phillies over the first two innings.  Then, all of a sudden, everything would come off the rails in a 36 pitch third inning for Syndergaard.

The odd thing for Syndergaard was even though he was in trouble he was so close to getting out of it.  There were runners on first and second with one out after a Carlos Santana double.  After a Nick Williams RBI groundout, Syndergaard was well in position to get out of a tough inning with the Mets still having a 2-1 lead.

Surprisingly, Syndergaard, who typically has excellent control, immediately went 3-0 against Rhys Hoskins.  He battled back into the count in what was an eight pitch at-bat where he then couldn’t put Hoskins away.  On the eighth pitch, he walked Hoskins.  That walk proved important.

With Aaron Altherr down 1-2 in the count, Hoskins broke too early for second, and it looked like he was picked off.  The ball went to second with Asdrubal Cabrera covering, and he walked back Hoskins while keeping an eye on Santana.  After Cabrera flipped it to Adrian Gonzalez, Hoskins ran out of the baseline (not called), and Santana beat Gonzalez’s throw home.

The game was tied at 2-2.  At that point, Syndergaard wasn’t going to be able to make it through five innings, and the Mets offense had just one hit after the Cespedes homer.  This made this the type of game you’d expect the Mets of very recent vintage to blow.

However, Robert Gsellman came out of the bullpen and gave the Mets a lift.  He was nearly as impressive as Seth Lugo was yesterday throwing two hitless innings while striking out three.  Like Lugo, Gsellman gave the Mets a shot in the arm and a real chance to win.

That chance came in the sixth when Nola, who was infamously lifted by Gabe Kapler on Opening Day after 5.2 innings, walked Cabrera to start the sixth.  After a Gonzalez lineout, Andrew Knapp error, and a Kevin Plawecki ground out, Wilmer Flores pinch hit for Gsellman and drew a walk.  That’s where Amed Rosario, who has hit ninth in every game he has started on the young season, was in prime position to deliver the big hit.

Rosario did a nice job going the other way with the pitch, and he was able to line the ball over Williams, who was playing aggressively in in right field.  The end result was a two run triple giving the Mets a 4-2 lead.

The Mets bullpen, who has had an incredibly strong start to the season, stepped up and shut the door.

Believe it or not, that started with Hansel Robles striking out the side in the seventh.  AJ Ramos and Jeurys Familia would each pitch a scoreless inning a piece to preserve the Mets 4-2 win.

And yes, it is April, which is way too early to focus on these things, but the Mets are now traveling to Washington a half game up in the division and with Jacob deGrom on the mound.

Game Notes: This game was broadcast only on Facebook with former Phillie John Kruk and former Met Cliff Floyd doing the color commentary.  With Michael Conforto being activated from the disabled list, Phillip Evans was optioned down to Triple-A.  He was 0-3 with a strikeout and a GIDP.

Seth Lugo = Andrew Miller

So far this season, Seth Lugo has been arguably the team’s most impressive pitcher.  Yesterday, he made his season debut, and he completely dominated what may prove to be a decent Philadelphia Phillies lineup.

Lugo would need just 22 pitches to dispatch the Phillies.  Of those 22 pitches, 19 were for strikes.  Mind you, not all of those pitches were in the strike zone.  It wouldn’t matter much as all of his pitches were moving and fooling Phillies batters who actually swung at six pitches outside of the strike zone.  Ultimately, Lugo would strike out four of the six batters he faced, and the two who put the ball in play made weak contact.

The dominating performance has rekindled a debate over what exactly Lugo is.

On the one hand, Lugo has earned the right to be a part of this rotation, at least until Jason Vargas comes off the disabled list.  We have also seen Lugo have success in the rotation.  Remember, he and Robert Gsellman were key parts of the late season 2016 rotation which helped pitch the Mets to the first Wild Card.  For his part, Lugo was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP as a starter that year.

With numbers like that, Lugo should be in the rotation.  However, that success did not carry forward into last year with Lugo having an injury and his posting a 4.76 ERA in his 18 starts.  The biggest culprit for that is Lugo has allowed opposing batters to hit .297/.350/.422 off of him the third time through the order.

Those inconsistency as a starter and the struggles the third time through the lineup are reminiscent of Andrew Miller.

For years, Miller wasn’t the relief ace he is now.  Instead, he was a top pitching prospect who was one of the key pieces the Marlins obtained when they traded Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers.  Only problem is Miller never pitched like the top pitching prospect he was.  Instead, he struggled as a starter going 20-27 with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.732 WHIP.

Many of us don’t remember that because that was seven years ago.  Since that time, he has moved to the bullpen full time where he has gone from intriguing arm to Yankees closer to ALCS MVP.  Instead of the “bust” he was once known as, he is now known as perhaps the most feared reliever in all of baseball.

He doesn’t need that third or even fourth pitch to help him get through the lineup a third time.  No, he just needs a devastating fastball/slider combination to mow through opposing lineups for one, two, or maybe even three innings.

Looking at Lugo’s career to this point and his performance last night, that’s who he is. He’s the National League, the right-handed, and the Mets version of Andrew Miller.  And who better to unleash Lugo in the bullpen but Miller’s former pitching coach and current Mets manager Mickey Callaway

In the bullpen, we have seen Lugo be able to ramp up his fastball to the mid 90s.  In a shorter relief appearance, he can unleash curveball after curveball after curveball.  With each curveball he throws, he can make the opposing batters look quite foolish much like his first signature moment when he struck out Anthony Rizzo swinging on a curveball with so much movement it hit Rizzo’s foot.

Really, every time the Mets have looked for Lugo out of the bullpen he has just impressed.  Even with Lugo doing everything he could do to prove he should be in the rotation, the Mets need him in the bullpen.  After all, when you have a weapon as good as Miller in your bullpen, you make sure you use him in your bullpen.

Somewhat Vintage Harvey in Mets Win

It’s been a few years since Matt Harvey was Matt Harvey.  However, there was hope we would see him again because now the Mets had Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland.  That was not only the tandem who you wanted to help fix a pitcher, but they also believed in Harvey.  Their belief was enough to convince the Mets not to consider trading him.  That faith was something to help give the Mets fans faith in him and the team again in 2018.

For one night, we saw a glimpse of Harvey being a very good pitcher for the Mets yet again.

No, it was not quite vintage Harvey, but he was real good.  Instead of pumping it up to the high 90s to near triple digits, he was living in the lower 90s.  It didn’t matter because it was a good moving and well located fastball.  Put another way, it was good enough to generate a number of swings and misses.  Really, he had all of his pitches working for him including his change-up which looked like a real weapon for him.

However, in some sense this actually was vintage Harvey.  Through his 86 pitches, he walked just one and struck out five.  He limited the Phillies to just one hit and no runs.  Like vintage Harvey, he got no run support.

For a while, it looked like it was going to be the Phillies who plated the first run.  AJ Ramos was in immediate danger after a Cesar Hernandez bunt single and a Carlos Santana walk.  Ramos bore down getting some luck on a hard hit liner hit by Aaron Altherr right at Todd Frazier, and he struck out Rhys Hoskins.

Callaway then went to Jerry Blevins in the sixth inning because that was the moment it called for his LOOGY to get the biggest out of the game.  Blevins did just that by getting Odubel Herrera to pop out.

Having weathered the storm, the Mets offense began to go to work against Ben Lively.  Before the sixth, Lively had actually matched Harvey zero for zero.  However, in the bottom of the sixth, he would be done in by his control and his defense.

Lively put on Yoenis Cespedes by plunking him.  Initially, it looked like Lively was going to stop a rally from building as he got Jay Bruce to hit what should have been a double play ball.  The only problem for the Phillies is third baseman Scott Kingery stayed home at third.  With no one there to field a throw, the only play was at first.

Frazier would make the Phillies pay by ripping an RBI double to left field.  After an Adrian Gonzalez ground out, Travis d’Arnaud would deliver an RBI single giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.

With the previous snow out, the Mets decided to skip Seth Lugo in the rotation.  With him stretch out to start, and with him having no obvious chance to start over the upcoming week, he was in great position to pitch multiple innings.  Lugo did just that by mowing down the Phillies.  In his two innings of work, he struck out four of the six batters he faced.  The two who did manage to make contact didn’t get it out of the infield.

That left Jeurys Familia his old familiar spot in the ninth inning looking to save a close Mets game.  It wasn’t an easy one.  A leadoff walk to Altherr quickly turned to first and third with one out.  Kingery battled, but he eventually fouled out with Wilmer Flores making a nice play by the dugout.  That led to a game ending ground out, and Familia saving the 2-0 win.

One of the things which really stood out in the game was the difference between the Mets and the Phillies choices for manager.  Callaway seems in charge, and he has the Mets playing good baseball.  More than that, his bullpen management tonight was phenomenal.  Gabe Kapler has been a mess, the Phillies are failing to be in position to turn double plays, and the Phillies are now 1-3.

It certainly doesn’t hurt Callaway and the Mets when Harvey is pitching this well.

Game Notes: Jose Reyes got the start making him the last Mets position player to make a start this season.  After drawing a walk in his first at-bat, he was thrown out in his stolen base attempt.  Frazier had another good game going 2-4 with a run, double, and an RBI.

Mets Season Really Begins Now

If you break it down, the Mets clearest path to the postseason is for the team to win at least 60% of Noah Syndergaard‘s and Jacob deGrom‘s starts.  These are the Mets c0-aces, and they are the surest bet each time the Mets go through their rotation.  Assuming they make 30 starts a piece, and the rest of the rotation pitches at least .500, the Mets will win at least 87 games, which should be good enough for one of the two Wild Card spots.

While wins are not pitcher dependent, there is usually a correlation between a pitcher pitching very well and his team having a chance to win the game.  More often than not, if a pitcher is going to dominate the opposing offense, you are going to see your team win games.  Overall, while you may not see Syndergaard or deGrom walk off the mound with the “W,” you may see the team have one once the game is over, and that’s what matters for this discussion.

We have seen both starters accomplish the feat.  Back in 2015, the Mets were 20-1o (67%) in games started by deGrom.  In 2016, the Mets were 19-12 (61%) in games started by Syndergaard.  This isn’t to say it will happen. Rather, it suggests it is possible, and it looked all the more possible in their respective starts.

Still, for the formula to work, the rest of the rotation has to pull together to give the Mets at least a combined .500 record.  With the injuries and struggles the past few seasons, that is far from a certainty.

Steven Matz‘s first start had to give you some reason for concern.  Yes, he was squeezed by CB Bucknor, but the home plate umpire was not the reason why Matz was leaving pitches up in the hitting zone.  Bucknor was just reason why Matz walked three and needed 89 pitches to get through just four innings.

Normally, you say Matz can only go up from here, but that would ignore how the Mets pitching performed in 2016 and 2017.

Where Matz failed, the Mets now need Matt Harvey to step up.  Perhaps more than anyone Harvey has symbolized the Mets rise and fall and hopefully their rise again. There was hope with the Mets when Harvey returned in 2015.  His ineffectiveness and further injury was a part of the 2017 despair.

Now, Harvey has a manager in Mickey Callaway and pitching coach in Dave Eiland, who believe in his talent.  Neither wanted to see Harvery traded, and they gave him one of the top four spots in the starting rotation.  Purportedly, they found and fixed the mechanical issue Dan Warthen has been talking about for years and had not been able to fix.

Is Harvey really fixed?  We don’t know, and until Harvey puts together a significant number of good starts together, there will be doubters.  Understandably, there may be doubters long after that.

What we do know is the Mets need to piece together wins in the games Syndergaard and deGrom do not pitch.  Yesterday, Matz didn’t step up to prove he’s the next guy.  Jason Vargas won’t pitch for a while, and there are questions after his second half last year.  Seth Lugo won the job out of Spring Training, but there are issues about his long term viability in the rotation with his inability to go three times through the order.

That leaves Harvey, and that is why in many ways, the 2018 season truly begins today.

Who’s Better: 2015 or 2018 Mets?

Entering the season, Yoenis Cespedes made the bold declaration the 2018 Mets were better than the 2015 Mets.  Now, if you recall that 2015 team, it did feature players like Eric Campbell and John Mayberry.  However, those players were not on the team at the same time as Cespedes.  When Cespedes joined the Mets, he was on a much better roster, a roster which went all the way to the World Series.

With that consideration, it is certainly bold for Cespedes to make that declaration, but is he right?  Let’s take a look:

CATCHER

2015: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki
2018: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki

Just looking at those names, you may be quick to think not much has changed in the catching situation.  In reality, everything is different, and the main difference is these catchers stand on much different footing.

The 2015 season was d’Arnaud’s best as a player with him posting a 126 OPS+ and emerging as an elite pitch framer.  Plawecki was overmatched at the plate, but he did handle the pitching staff exceptionally well.  Since that time, both had gone on to disappoint in 2016 and much of 2017.

Things changed at the tail end of 2017.  Plawecki finally looked like the player the Mets once thought he would become.  d’Arnaud would finish the season with a strong September.  As a result, they will look to begin the 2018 season in a unique time sharing agreement designed to keep both healthy and effective all year long.

VERDICT: 2018if both replicate their Septembers, this won’t even be close

FIRST BASE

2015: Lucas Duda
2018: Adrian Gonzalez

In 2015, Duda hit .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers and 73 RBI.  He was as streaky as he ever was unable to carry the team when they needed his bat most, and he almost single-handedly beat the Nationals in a key late July series.

Gonzalez is coming off the worst year of his career, and he is still dealing with back issues which requires him to warm up two hours before the game starts.

VERDICT: 2015 Gonzalez may not be around long enough to make a bad throw

SECOND BASE

2015: Daniel Murphy
2018: Asdrubal Cabrera

We got a glimpse of what Murphy would became with him slugging .533 over the final two months of the season. Even with the increased power, no one could predict the home run barrage he’d unleash in the postseason.

For his part, Cabrera finds himself at second a year after protesting moving there or anywhere. He’s been a good hitter with the Mets, and he’s been terrific in the clutch. We’ll see if the injuries will permit him to be that again.

VERDICT: 2015 – Murphy’s postseason was an all-time great one

THIRD BASE

2015: David Wright
2018: Todd Frazier

This was really the last hurrah for Wright in a Mets uniform. He was very good in the 30 games he played after coming off the DL hitting .277/.381/.437. He’d hit two emotional homers: (1) his first at-bat since coming off the DL; and (2) his first World Series at-bat at Citi Field.

Frazier has been a solid to somewhat underrated player. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 34 homers, 88 RBI, and a 110 OPS+. He’s been a good fielder averaging a 5 DRS over that stretch.

VERDICT: 2018 – Frazier is no Wright, but he’s healthy

SHORTSTOP

2015: Ruben Tejada
2018: Amed Rosario

Tejada was not supposed to be the starting shortstop in 2015.  After wasting a few chances which led to Omar Quintanilla getting the bulk of the playing time over him, the Mets moved on to Flores.  Eventually, Collins and the Mets went back to Tejada because: (1) he had steadier hands; and (2) he had a .362 OBP in the second half.  Who knows how everything would have turned out had Chase Utley not broken his leg with a dirty slide/tackle.

Rosario is the future of the Mets.  Yes, there are flaws in his game like his very low walk rate.  However, this is a uniquely gifted player who is dedicated to being better.  He’s electric, and he’s got the skill set to be a superstar for a very long time.  For now, we will settle for him being a good defensive shortstop who brings real speed and upside to the table.

VERDICT: 2018 Rosario’s ceiling is just way too high

OUTFIELD

2015: Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson
2018: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Cespedes was just an otherworldly player when he joined the Mets.  Despite his only being a Met for a few months, he finished in the Top 15 in MVP voting.  Really, the MVP for the Mets that year was Granderson who was a leader in the clubhouse on the lineup.  He had the most homers from a lead-off hitter, and he was a Gold Glove finalist.  Conforto jumped from Double-A to post a 133 wRC+ and a much better than expected 9 DRS in left.

With respect to the 2018 outfield, we see Conforto is a much better play (when healthy), and Cespedes is nowhere near as good as he was when he joined the Mets.  To be fair, there’s no way he could, but he’s still an All Star caliber player.  This means the main difference between the squads is Bruce and Granderson.

VERDICT: 2015 – That Cespedes was just that much better.

BENCH

2015: Michael Cuddyer, Wilmer Flores, Kelly Johnson, Juan Lagares
2018: Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes

From the moment Uribe and Johnson joined the Mets, they were game changers.  They both brought a winning attitude and game winning hits.  In addition to the two of them, Lagares was the defensive specialist, a role to which he is best suited, and Cuddyer was a platoon partner with either Conforto or Duda depending on whether Lagares started the game as well.  Overall, it was a veteran bench who provided needed leadership.

The Mets current bench is similar to the 2015 bench with Reyes trying to emulate the Uribe role even if he’s not as productive a player.  Flores is Flores, but a better hitter, and believe it or not, a worse fielder.  Lagares rediscovered his range he lost in 2015.  Nimmo should be in the everyday lineup and leading off, but early indications are he won’t.

VERDICT: 2015 – Uribe and Johnson were just that important

ROTATION

2015: Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
2018: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Jason Vargas

When you consider Vargas was basically brought in to replicate what Colon did in 2015, the question is whether you believe the Mets top four starters are better as a group now or then.  Looking at it objectively, Syndergaard is the only one who has improved with no one knowing what Harvey and Matz can still provide.

VERDICT: 2015 – they were just healthier then

BULLPEN

2015: Jeurys Familia, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Jon Niese, Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel
2018: Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald

Familia was that good in 2015 that he was able to cover many of the warts in the 2015 bullpen.  This resulted in Collins using him for multiple innings more than any other closer that year.  Reed would begin his emergence as a great reliever, but a back injury would cost Clippard of his effectiveness.  One surprise was Niese performing well as a lefty in the bullpen.

When you include Sewald’s Triple-A experience, this is a bullpen with three closers, six pitchers with closer’s stuff, and a very good LOOGY in Blevins.  Even if Familia is not as good as he was in 2015, it won’t matter because there is enough depth here for the Mets to not need to rely upon him as much.

VERDICT: 2018 – they’re just deeper and with more upside

MANAGER

2015: Terry Collins
2018: Mickey Callaway

For all the warts and problems Mets fans discovered with Collins, he had his finest year as a manager in 2015.  When the ship could have sunk multiple times, he pulled the team together and kept things afloat until the team got healthy and reinforcements arrived.  Of course, he followed this up by helping cost the Mets the World Series with a series of baffling decisions which all blew up in the Mets faces.

Right now, Callaway looks like a genius.  He’s innovative batting Cespedes second and Rosario ninth.  He came down hard on Dominic Smith for being late.  His players seem to love him, and the baseball world roundly believes the Mets made an excellent hire.  However, the season isn’t even a week old.  Even if everyone is a fan at the moment, let’s check back in a couple of months to see if he’s an innovative genius or if he’s a know-it-all who can’t leave good enough alone.

Verdict: 2018 – Collins did cost the Mets a World Series

VERDICT

If you break it down, the 2015 Mets were better at first, second, outfield, bench, and rotation.  The 2018 version is better at catcher, third, short, bullpen, and manager.  Looking at the breakdown, you can say it’s a 5-5 draw.  However, in reality, it’s not.  That 2015 team pitching rotation was just so dominant, and hypothetically, if these teams were going to step on the same field, the 2015 rotation would dominate the 2018 version.

That said, there is a lot of talent on this 2018 team, and from what we have seen so far, this is a roster tailor made to what we presume is Callaway’s talents as a manager.  If Callaway is indeed as good as we hope it will be, we can see him and Dave Eiland taking this pitching staff as a whole to the next level.  If that can happen, and with a little help, this Mets team could accomplish what the 2015 version didnt – win the World Series.

2018 Mets Player by Player Projections

As I do from time to time, we need a “completely serious” analysis and projection of each and every Mets player who is expected to contribute during the 2018 season.  While there are many prjoection systems which claim to be fool-proof, there are none that will be this accurate about the Mets:

Sandy Alderson – The other 29 GMs in baseball will be left in complete hysterics when Alderson is calling around for a right-handed reliever to help boost the team’s chances to making the postseason.

Mickey Callaway – The writers will overwhelmingly vote him as the National League Manager of the Year.  The most cited reason for giving him the award will be the fact he didn’t insist on playing his worst players or forcing his players to play through crippling injuries.

Dave Eiland– Multiple Mets pitchers will hug him for actually fixing their mechanics and for listening to them when they say they’re hurting.

Tyler Bashlor – When someone notices how similar his name is to the ABC reality show hit The Bachelor, they’ll say how “The Bashlor” is handing out strikeouts like they’re roses. We should all hate that person.

Jerry Blevins– Until he eats a sandwich, the socks given away in his honor will hang around his ankles

Bryce Brentz– He’s going to be the guy who has one or two at-bats this season, and someone is going to invoke his name as a former Met to try to sound like he knows more about the Mets than you know anything.

Jay Bruce– After a four home run game, all Mets fans will want to talk about is when he is going to move to first base.

Asdrubal Cabrera – After a slump, Callaway will move Cabrera down in the lineup causing Cabrera to bring his kids to the clubhouse and have them ask why Callaway doesn’t want them to eat.

Jamie Callahan– His wearing #43 will serve as a constant reminder that not only was he part of the return for Addison Reed, but also how the Mets turned quality MLB players into six right-handed relief prospects. That will be the worst possible sequel to I Know What You Did Last Summer.

Yoenis Cespedes – After an MVP caliber first half, he will feel like he has earned just one game of golf as a reward during the All Star Break.  He will immediately be vilified.

Michael Conforto – After a huge cut and a swing and miss, Conforto will wince for a moment thereby causing a passionate Mets fans behind home plate to have a heart attack.  This will led to a call for the netting to be filled in and for fans to have to watch the game on a tape delay.

Travis d’Arnaud– During a remarkably healthy season, he will finally be forced to catch Syndergaard, who had spent most of the seaosn with Plawecki as his personal catcher.  On the first pitch of the game, Syndergaard throws a 101 MPH fastball which immediately shatters d’Arnaud’s hand.

Jacob deGrom– After a slump, he’s going to look to grow his hair out.  Once he realizes his hair cannot possibly reach it’s old length during the 2018, he’s going to grow a really long beard and change his entrance music to “Legs” by ZZ Top.

Phillip Evans– When he cashes in his check for his postseason share, Evans will fondly remember that April pinch hitting appearance.

Jeurys Familia – After he gives up a seventh inning homer to Conor Gillaspie costing the Mets a game, fans will scream for him to pitch in the ninth inning again.

Wilmer Flores – He will be in such hysterics during his struggles in his first game in the outfield his crying on the field in 2015 will look like a case of the sniffles.

Todd Frazier– It will take many Mets fans a long time to come to grips that Jersey Boy Todd Frazier does not use a Bruce Springsteen song as his walk-up music.  That point will finally come when they realize Frank Sinatra is from Hoboken and not NYC.

Adrian Gonzalez – He will become James Loney2.0.  He will hit well enough for the Mets to stick with him, and the front office will continue to stick with him long after he has since been useful.

Robert Gsellman – As he continues to wait in Las Vegas for his opportunity to get back to the Majors, he will eventually care what Sandy Alderson thinks of him.

Matt HarveyHe’s going to pull a reverse Ben Affleck by going from The Dark Knight moniker to Daredevil.  He will earn that name by following Eiland’s instructions to throw inside with such reckless abandon to the point where people start to question if he’s gone blind.

Juan Lagares – After once again injuring his thumb on a diving attempt, the Mets will finally realize Lagares’ injures were the result of him literally using a gold glove to try to play center.  While they found the answer and solution for the thumb injuries, they will still be perplexed on how to fix his hitting.

Seth Lugo– We won’t know if people keep referring to the hook with him because of his incredible curveball or because of how Callaway won’t let him face a lineup for a third time.

Steven Matz– In addition to the sandwich he has named after him at the Se-port Deli, he will have one named after him at the cafeteria at the Hospital for Special Surgery.

Brandon Nimmo– Despite putting up great numbers, the Mets will inform Nimmo they unfortunately have to send him down to Triple-A due to a temporary roster squeeze.  When he’s still smiling through the ordeal, they will force him to seek psychological counseling.

Kevin Plawecki– On a day when the Mets are getting blown out, the frustrated Plawecki will use the last of his six mound visits to derisively tell his pitcher he can pitch better than this. The pitcher will remind him he has a better batting average than Plawecki.

AJ Ramos – After striking out Giancarlo Stanton in a Subway Series game, he’s going to go home and find his friend has moved out of their shared apartment.  Odd Couple style hilarity ensues.

Jose Reyes– One day, he will hit a triple and score on a mad dash to home plate.  He will have that old Reyes smile, and it will electrify the crowd.  It will also cause everyone to forget that he is one of the worst position players in all of baseball.

T.J. Rivera – After he comes off the disabled list, he’ll deliver in the clutch for the Mets and his teammates will honor him as the player of the game.  The Mets will make sure he’s not standing in front of Plawecki’s locker when they take a photo to tweet out.

Hansel Robles– Many will credit him with the discovery of extra terrestrials by his discovery of a UFO in the Vegas night.  Years later, Robles will sheepishly admit all he was doing was pointing up at another homer he allowed.

Amed Rosario– To the surprise of us all, Rosario will strike out looking when the pitcher throws him a pitch which he was surprised at and was not ready to swing at. Entire belief systems will be shattered.

Jacob Rhame– Like Jason Phillips, he will soon realize fans may first like you for the googles and smile in your photo, but really, they’re only going to love you if you produce.

Paul Sewald– After having spent a year with Terry Collins, he’s going to be the player most comfortable with having no defined role in the bullpen.  However, it will be an adjustment for him not having to warm up multiple times per game.

Dominic Smith – When he gets called up to the Majors as part of September call-ups, he will be late on a pitch causing his manager to believe he learned nothing from Spring Training.

Anthony Swarzak – The jokes about not knowing how to spell his name will get old by mid-April.  The jokes will be rediscovered in August when more fans tune it to a Mets team that is a surprising contender.  The jokes will continue to not be funny.

Noah Syndergaard– He will continue his “Twitter Feud” with Mr. Met.  It will be discussed ad nausesum during nationally televised games.  America will think it’s amusing only fueling the spat even further and giving no hope to Mets fans who have long since found this to be unfunny.

Jason Vargas – When Reyes introduces himself, Vargas will remind him they were teammates in 2007.  Both recall that season and will agree it never happened.

Zack Wheeler– He will be converted to a reliever, and in a surprise to us all, he will lead the league in saves. In a surprise to him that league will be the Pacific Coast League.

David Wright– He will apologize and sheepishly admit the Mets crown was an embarrassingly bad idea.  He will try to come up with a way to rectify it, but no one will listen to his ideas on the topic anymore.