Rafael Montero
Back in 2010 when Jacob deGrom was drafted out of Stetson University as a shortstop, you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the Mets organization that truly believed deGrom would not only be a future Rookie of the Year, but also one of the top pitchers in baseball. In fact, deGrom wasn’t even seen as such when he was first called-up to the Mets in 2014.
At that point in time, the Mets were in a year of transition, and they were at the point of trying to figure out who could be a part of the team in 2015 when the Mets were really intent on becoming contenders. One of the players called-up was obviously deGrom who was was 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.278 WHIP in seven starts in AAA. This was a marked improvement from the pitcher who was 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.467 WHIP in 14 starts in AAA the previous year. During said 2013 season, deGrom had made 10 starts in AA going 2-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.483 WHIP. Sure, there were reasons to expect he could eventually pitch in the majors. He was a four pitch pitcher that had a mid 90s fastball and a good slider.
When Dillon Gee went down with an injury, the 26 year old deGrom was called up to the majors to make a start in his stead. There was no timetable on how long deGrom was going to either stay in the majors or in the rotation. However, if push came to shove, the Mets were more inclined to move deGrom into the bullpen and let Rafael Montero stay in the rotation. At that point, Montero was seen as a much better and more polished prospect who had good command and was a groundball pitcher. What transpired was deGrom proved that his 2014 AAA season was no fluke. He went on to make 22 starts that season going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.140 WHIP en route to becoming the National League Rookie of the Year.
He had surpassed Montero who had not pitched as well in his opportunity and who dealt with some injuries thereby opening the door for deGrom to forever solidify not only his place in the rotation, but also the Mets plans.
Right now, the Mets have a pitcher in Matt Harvey who is injured, and that is going to open the door for a pitcher to get a chance to show that they are capable of being part of this Mets rotation. Much like in 2014, the prospects that are battling it out is a 26 year old in Seth Lugo who was never expected to be in this position and a 23 year old pitcher in Gabriel Ynoa who relies upon his control and groundballs to get outs. Much like in 2014, the Mets have deemed the younger pitcher to be the better prospect. In many ways, this could be the case of history repeating itself.
So far, Lugo has made one major league appearance. In that one relief appearance, he showed that he has the stuff to get hitters out at this level. Like deGrom, he has seemingly taken his game to the next level once he got called-up to the majors. Right now, the only thing that really separates him and deGrom is the fact that deGrom got his chance to establish himself in the major league rotation. Of course, it was easier for the Mets to give deGrom his shot in 2014 when the team was going nowhere. It’s a lot harder to justify such a decision when the team is in the thick of both the NL East and Wild Card races. And yet, with that in mind, the Mets should want to put the guys in the rotation that have the best chance to get batters out.
Arguably, that pitcher is Seth Lugo. He just needs to get the chance deGrom did to prove it.
The news that Matt Harvey may miss a significant amount of time due to the possibility that he may have thoracic outlet syndrom is devastating to not only Harvey himself, but also to the Mets rotation. While Harvey was struggling all year with a 4.86 ERA, he is also a pitcher who can rise up in big games. We have seen it time and time again with him whether it was him almost pitching a perfect game against the White Sox, being named the starter for the 2013 All Star Game, or his Game 5 of the World Series performance. He was an important part of the Mets, and if he has an extended absence, he is going to leave behind some pretty big shoes to fill.
As of right now, the Mets have not announced who will take Harvey’s spot in the rotation for Harvey’s next scheduled start. Fortunately, the Mets organization is fairly deep in major league capable starting pitching talent. Here is a list of the potential candidates:
Last year when the Mets were trying to manage Harvey’s innings, it was Verrett who temporarily took his place in the rotation. In Verrett’s four spot starts last year, he was a very respectable 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA. This included a brilliant performance Verrett had in Colorado limiting the Rockies to four hits and one earned run in eight innings. Unfortunately, Verrett has not had the same success as a spot starter this year. In his five spot starts, he is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA. Part of those struggles may be attributed to the fact that Verrett has not been fully stretched out like he was when he took the ball for the Mets last year. Accordingly, if Verrett was stretched out and able to pitch every fifth day, it would be reasonable to assume he could pitch as well as he did as a spot starter last year – perhaps even better.
Verrett was picked over Gilmartin for the last spot in the Opening Day bullpen, and as a result, the Mets sent down Gilmartin to be a member of their AAA starting rotation. Last year, we saw that Gilmartin knows how to get major league hitters out. In 50 appearances, he was 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, a 2.75 FIP, and a 143 ERA+. When he made multiple inning relief appearances last year, he was 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The only caution with Gilmartin is he has not been as successful this year as he was last year. In his 13 AAA starts, he is 9-3 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.336 WHIP. In his five major league relief appearances, Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP. However, it should be noted Gilmartin’s struggles started when he was being jerked back and forth between Las Vegas and the Mets, between relieving and starting. Before his first call-up, Gilmartin was 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. Overall, Gilmartin has shown he can get major league hitters out and pitch well as a starter.
When Harvey was put on the disabled list, the Mets called-up Lugo who dazzled in his two inning relief appearance. In that outing, Lugo used all five out his pitches to get a potent Cubs lineup out. He featured a 94 MPH fastball and a wicked curveball. He curveball was working so well he was able to get Anthony Rizzo to swing at a pitch that moved so much it would hit him on his back foot. He certainly has the tools to be an effective starter even if he hasn’t had the results in AAA this year. Given his repetoire and the ability to work with pitching coach Dan Warthen, the Mets just might have a pitcher who could blossom on the major league level similar to how Jacob deGrom did when he was called-up to the Mets in 2014.
If the Mets are going to turn to their prospects for a solution, Ynoa deserves some consideration as well. By any measure, the 23 year old Ynoa has been the Las Vegas 51s’ best starting pitcher. In a hitter friendly league, the Pacific Coast League All Star is 9-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.353 WHIP in 17 starts. The only questions with Ynoa is if the Mets believe he is ready to make the leap to the majors and whether his ability to enduce groundballs is a good fit for a Mets infield whose players have limited range.
If the Mets are inclined to take a risk with a Lugo or a Ynoa, they may be inclined to give Montero one last shot. However, as we have seen with Montero, it gets harder and harder to justify giving him another opportunity. When he was with the Mets this past year, he had an 11.57 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP in his two appearances thereby more than justifying Terry Collins‘ almost outright refusal to put him into a game. Down in AAA, Montero is 4-6 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.888 WHIP in 16 starts. This isn’t the same guy the Mets once thought had a bright future. Keep in mind, the Mets thought he had a future as far back as last year when he made the Opening Day roster as a member of the bullpen. Maybe just maybe giving this guy one last shot could wake him up, and it could bring out the best in him. It’s possible working closely with Dan Warthen may allow him to fulfill the promise he had when the Mets valued him as a prospect.
Overall, the Mets have many directions they could go. Each of the aforementioned starters could step-up and hold the fort until either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler is able to return from the disabled list to help lead the Mets back to the World Series. Ultimately, this is going to be an opportunity for one or more of these pitchers. It’s up to them to step up and stake a claim to a spot in the rotation. It’s up to them to make it hard for the Mets to remove them from the rotation much like deGrom did in 2014 when he won the Rookie of the Year Award. If one of these pitchers has a run like that, it would give the Mets six or seven terrific starters. That would be an amazing problem to have.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
Steven Matz has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, and the Mets talked him out if having inseason surgery to remove them. Noah Syndergaard also has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, but it appears like it’s nowhere near as serious as Matz’s. Zack Wheeler has had a number of setbacks in his Tommy John rehab, and the best case scenario has him returning to the Mets mid to late August. Now, worst of all, Matt Harvey may have thoracic outlet syndrome.
Anyone one of these pitchers may miss an extended period of time, and the Mets replacements are less than inspiring.
First up as always is spot starter Logan Verrett who has a 5.32 ERA in his five starts this year. Sean Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA in his limited appearances with the Mets this year. Seth Lugo had an electrifying one inning appearance before bring sent back down to AAA where he has a 6.55 ERA. Rafael Montero hasn’t been much better with his 6.31 AAA ERA and his 11.57 major league ERA. Finally, there’s 23 year old Gabriel Ynoa who may not be ready for the majors.
For a team that is built on pitching, these are not viable options. These pitchers are not carrying these Mets back to the World Series like the pitching did in 2015.
No, the Mets need a pitcher like Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has made 13 starts this year going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP. He’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH Warthen slider. If he was in the Mets rotation right now, he would arguably be the best pitcher in their rotation. At the very least, he’s top three. There’s one problem.
Fulmer’s a Tiger. Fulmer was one of 12 pitchers the Mets have traded away since the 2015 offseason. Make no mistake. Fulmer was the best of the lot.
Many have justified his departure as he was traded away to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would go off in August and September with an offensive display Mets fans haven’t seen since Mike Piazza was leading the Mets to back-to-back postseason appearances. The Mets would fall just short of the ultimate goal as they lost the World Series in five games.
Arguably, the Mets needed Cespedes to reach that point. However, in acquiring him, the Mets gave up Fulmer’s entire career. They gave up the very player they may need this year just to get back to the World Series. The Mets may have sacrificed their chances in 2016 and beyond for the run they made last year.
The reason is because pitching is fragile. No matter how good you think you have it there’s a bone spur, a torn collateral ligament, or a shoulder condition that can take an ace pitcher away. It’s why an organization needs as much high end pitching depth as it can get their hands on. Yesterday’s surplus becomes today’s necessity.
Fulmer was seen as surplus last year, and he was moved for Cespedes. With Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and Matz’s medical issues, he’s now a necessity that is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
It seemed like disaster struck for the Mets. Both Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes were forced to leave Wednesday’s game due to injuries. For Cespedes, it was his left wrist. For Syndergaard, it was the dreaded elbow complaints. Speaking of elbow complaints, it appeared that Zack Wheeler had a Jeremy Hefner-like setback during his Tommy John rehab.
It was seriousness enough that the Mets weren’t screwing around this time. They immediately sent Cespedes and Syndergaard to see Dr. Altchek.
While these two Mets were getting themselves examined for potential season-ending injuries, Mets fans were left to drive themselves crazy. I spent most of the time trying to talk myself into Sean Gilmartin or Rafael Montero as a viable fifth starter. I looked to see how Brandon Nimmo‘s numbers would translate to the majors. I thought about moves like signing Yusileski Gourriel.
I kept reminding myself that Steven Matz was 7-3. I harkened back to last year when there was a big three of Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Jacob deGrom. We haven’t seen the best of Harvey or deGrom yet, and Matz had shown the ability to potentially replicate what Syndergaard last year. I kept telling myself the Mets were going to be fine. All they have to do is make the playoffs with that pitching staff and bullpen. It was possible.
Fortunately, Syndergaard put our minds at ease:
After that tidbit of good news, we learned neither he nor Cespedes are headed to the DL. Furthermore, tests revealed Wheeler has no structural damages.
We don’t know when Cespedes can return to the lineup, nor do we know if Syndergaard will make his next start. However, we do know they will play again in the near future. We also learned there is still hope for Wheeler returning to the Mets to pitch this year. It’s a huge relief.
Now, instead of staying up all night trying to dream up scenarios where the Mets can compete without their best hitter or pitcher, I can put my head down and go to sleep in peace. I imagine that I’ll dream of the Mets winning the World Series behind Cespedes, Syndergaard, and maybe even Wheeler.
The Mets and Logan Verrett were in a difficult spot. With the doubleheader, some questionable bullpen management during the week, and Jim Henderson‘s torn nail, Verrett was going to have to go past the point he was probably comfortable going.
Verrett’s last appearance was June 7th. His last start was May 14th. He had not thrown more than 75 pitches since April 19th. This was not a recipe for success. It was exacerbated by Verrett going up against a good Brewers offense in a hitter’s park. The results were not good.
Verrett lasted four innings throwing 87 pitches. He was victimized by the walk and the longball. He allowed four walks and three homeruns. The homeruns to Chris Carter and Ryan Braun could be reasonably anticipated. The homerun to opposing pitcher Wily Peralta, even if Verret was absolutely spent, was just plain ponderous. It was an absolute no doubter to dead center.
.@WilyPeralta38 just wanted to remind everyone that #PitchersRake! https://t.co/iFkDx4McUo pic.twitter.com/T2M3TVF0vc
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) June 11, 2016
Verrett finished the inning, but he could go no further. Hansel Robles came in and pitched a scoreless fifth and sixth. Antonio Bastardo pitched the final two innings making sure to put the game out of reach along the way allowing three runs on two homers.
This means the Mets bullpen is down three pitchers tomorrow. It could be four depending on Henderson’s finger nail. Addison Reed has pitched three innings over the last three days. Same goes for Jeurys Familia. The Mets are in need of a fresh arm. To do that, someone has to go down.
Robles and Verrett are the only two players with options. Robles threw far fewer pitches, and he has shown the ability to recover fast in his young career. Therefore, the choice is Verrett. However, the problem isn’t who to send down, it’s who to call up.
The Mets could call up Erik Goeddel who was good with the Mets last year with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.990 WHIP. However, he’s struggling in AAA last year. Josh Edgin has not allowed a run this year, but he’s still coming back from Tommy John surgery. Rafael Montero and Sean Gilmartin could go multiple innings, but they will not be available with each having made a start the past two nights.
It’s a tough position to be in, but it’s no tougher than scoring three runs in five innings against a truly terrible pitcher:
Blame Verrett all you want but the Mets did nothing against a pitcher who entered the game with a 6.79 ERA & a 1.934 WHIP
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) June 11, 2016
It’s frustrating to watch even with Curtis Granderson having a great game:
Granderson just became the 3rd Met with a single, triple, homer & stolen base in the same game, joining @20Hojo (8/4/89) & Reyes (6/23/10).
— Ed Leyro (@Studi_Metsimus) June 11, 2016
It’s still not as frustrating as watching the Mets constantly playing short-handed. It’ll continue with Neil Walker leaving the game with back problems. It’ll continue with a spent and somewhat injured bullpen. The Mets could solve one problem by sending down Verrett and caling someone else up.
They won’t. It’s frustrating, even more frustrating than watching the Mets not take advantage of a very bad pitcher.
There is no such thing as a bad time to get called-up to the majors. Everything about the majors is better. The money. The travel. The women have long legs and brains. Mostly, it’s what you’ve worked for your entire life.
You don’t want to blow your shot. It’s why now may not be the best time for Matt Reynolds to get called-up.
In Reynold’s last 10 games, he’s hit .175/.214/.275 with no homers and four RBI. He has struck out 15 times. That means Reynolds has struck out 37.5% of the time over his last 10 games. He’s 0-1 in stolen base attempts. After this slump, Reynolds is now hitting .238/.303/.369. Simply put, Reynolds has not played well enough to earn a promotion.
However, he’s getting the promotion because it’s a numbers game. Wilmer Flores is on the DL, and the Mets need a reserve infielder that can play second, third, and short. Reynolds is the only minor league player on the Mets 40 man roster who can do that. So now with Reynolds playing the worst ball he ever has, he’s getting called up.
This is his shot to impress. Considering who the Mets manager is, he’s going to have to impress if he’s going to have a future with the Mets.
Terry Collins has some shortcomings as a manager. The first is he typically relies heavily upon his veterans. The second is that he’s quick to put players in his doghouse. We’ve seen it this season with Collins potentially dangerous use of Jim Henderson rather than using Rafael Montero.
Montero has been in Collins’ doghouse for being injured last year and not pitching effectively this Spring Training. Collins only used Montero when he absolutely had to use him and no more. Montero didn’t produce in his limited chances, and he moved into Collins’ doghouse.
Right now, Reynolds is scuffling. He’s going to get very limited chances, especially with six of the next nine against the Nationals. When Reynolds does get his shot, it’s going to leave a huge impression with his manager. If he gets a basehit, Collins may be inclined to use him more. If he doesn’t get hits, Collins will bury him on the bench. If and when he’s recalled, Collins will again bury him on the bench.
Whether it’s fair or not, Reynolds’ performance will have a big impact on the rest of his Mets career. With the way he’s been playing lately, this chance could not have come at a worse time.
Yesterday’s 0-3 with a strikeout certainly isn’t going to help his cause.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
It’s only been 20 games, but there’s a lot to talk about with the Mets. There’s Neil Walker turning into Postseason Daniel Murphy. There’s Noah Syndergaard becoming the ace of the staff. Michael Conforto is already batting third, and he’s already become the Mets best hitter.
Also, the bullpen has been dominant. Really dominant.
The Mets bullpen has recorded with nine saves with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 69 appearances. They’ve recorded 78 strikeouts in 63.2 innings pitched. That’s good for a 11.03 K/9. All these numbers are all the more impressive when you consider it includes Rafael Montero‘s 11.57 ERA and 2.571 WHIP. When you back out Montero’s stats, the Mets bullpen would have a 2.20 ERA and an 1.17 WHIP.
Of particular note, Jim Henderson, Hansel Robles, and Addison Reed have been outstanding. They have combined to pitch 29.2 innings with a 1.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 12.74 K/9. The group of them have created the perfect bridge to Familia.
All the more impressive is that the Mets bullpen has performed this well without Jeurys Familia getting going. He has a 2.45 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP. However, even with his relative struggles, the he’s still a perfect 7/7 in save opportunities. Even better, he seems to have settled down, and he’s starting to pitch better. Over his last two appearances, he hasn’t allowed a baserunner. Once Familia returns to form, and there is no doubt he will, the Mets bullpen will become even more dominant.
That’s bad news for teams that are trying to get into the Mets bullpen after 6-7 innings against one of the Mets aces. Overall, the Mets not only have the best starting pitching staff in the majors, they really have the best pitching in the majors period.
Editor’s Note: this article was also published on metsmerizedonline.com