Peter Alonso
When Tim Tebow took the batter’s box against reigning American League Cy Young Award Winner Rick Porcello, we could all guess what was going to happen. Tebow struck out, and he didn’t look particularly good doing it. In fact, Tebow didn’t look particularly good in any aspect of the game on Wednesday. Overall, Tebow was 0-3 with a hit by pitch, two strikeouts, and a GIDP. The only time he got on base via the hit by pitch, he was doubled off of first.
Simply put, Tebow did not look like he belonged out there.
Most Single A players don’t look like they belong out there either. That is traditionally why most players in the lower levels of the minor leagues do not play until towards the end of the Spring Training games. If you put a lower level minors player out there against the Porcellos of the world, they are most likely going to look bad up there. Heck, major leaguers look bad at the plate against Porcello. That’s partially why Porcello won the Cy Young Award.
However, with Tebow it’s different. It’s different because of the attention. Seriously, who gets a round of applause after they hit into a double play? It’s different because Tebow has always been a lightning rod. It’s different because Tebow decided to play baseball after not having played the sport in over a decade and after it was made clear his football career was over. As Terry Collins said, “What he’s attempting to do, not a lot of guys would even try.” (Anthony DiComo, mlb.com).
It’s different because some people believe Tebow is taking someone else’s spot.
That last one simply isn’t true. Minor league systems are full of “organizational guys” who are signed so each team can have enough guys to fill out a roster. In terms of this Spring, Tebow wasn’t even the first prospect to get into a game. David Thompson, Blake Tiberi, Luis Carpio, Kevin Kaczmarski, Luis Guillorme, Patrick Biondi, Wuilmer Becerra, Peter Alonso, Arnaldo Berrios, Gene Cone, John Mora, Colby Woodmansee, and Ricardo Cespedes are all Single A players who got into Spring Training games this year before Tebow. Overall, Tebow’s presence has not prevented anyone from getting into a game that the Mets deem worthy of getting into a game. Guess what? There is no way the Mets are going to let Tebow get in the way of another more deserving prospect. The Mets aren’t dumb.
For one day, Tebow went out there, and he didn’t look good. He looked all the bit of the 29 year old player who hasn’t played a full season of baseball in over 10 years. He looked outmatched, and he looked like he lacked the requisite instincts to play the game. That’s a good thing. Baseball is hard. As the late great Jimmy Dugan once said, “The hard… is what makes it great.”
In reality, the only way Tebow could have made a mockery of baseball was if he went out there and went 3-3 with a couple of extra base hits. Instead, the man struggled like he was supposed to struggle. Now, like many who have struggled, it is incumbent upon him to dust him off and get better. Tebow knows this better than anyone saying, “”There are a lot of things I have to play catch-up on. It’s just, how fast can I catch up?”
If Tebow is willing to put in the work, he just might be able to catch up. If he does catch up, he moves away from being a sideshow the Mets are profiting from to being a minor leaguer who is looking for his next call-up.
With the news that Jay Bruce is likely going to be the Mets Opening Day right fielder, many are pushing the idea that Michael Conforto should start to learn first base in order to make room for himself on the major league roster. Sorry, but that is a poor decision.
Now, there is nothing wrong with Conforto learning another position to increase his utility to the Mets. In fact, if Lucas Duda were to go down to injury, or if he is going to struggle due to any lingering effects from him having gone on the disabled list in consecutive seasons with back injuries, Conforto would be the first person you would want to replace him in the lineup.
With that said, the Mets need to figure out what they want Conforto to be. Do they want him to be the best outfielder this organization has developed since Darryl Strawberry? Or do they want him to become the next Eric Valent?
Simply put, at his age and with this talent, Conforto needs to be playing everyday somewhere. Ideally, that should be at the major league level as we have seen Conforto is ready to play in the majors. During his second stint in AAA, Conforto hit .493/.541/.821 with three homers and 11 RBI in 17 games. Those are video game numbers. A player that can dominate like that at the highest level of the minors does not belong there. He belongs in the majors.
He belongs in the major leagues where he has already shown glimpses of being a very good hitter. As a rookie who never played a game above AA, Conforto hit .270/.335/.506 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 56 games. In April last year, before he injured his wrist, Conforto hit an astounding .365/.442/.676 with four homers and 18 RBI in 21 games. Even with this subsequent struggles with the wrist injury and Terry Collins giving him irregular playing time, Conforto has shown he can hit at the major league level.
Again, the problem is he needs to play everyday. The problem is Bruce stands in his way.
This is the same Bruce who hit .219/.294/.391 in 50 games with the Mets last year. This is the same Bruce who is a career 109 OPS+ and 107 wRC+ career hitter. The same Bruce who has a career .318 OPB and .295 OBP over the past three seasons. This is the same Bruce who is just a few years removed from a season where he had a knee injury and hit .217/.281/.373 with 18 homers in 137 games. This is the same Bruce who is declining defensively posting a -8.9 UZR and -11 DRS last year and has averaged a -6.4 UZR and a -3 DRS over the past three seasons.
Ideally, Bruce is the guy who should be providing power off the bench. He should be learning first base to provide insurance for Duda. He should be the guy to step into the lineup should Conforto struggle or Curtis Granderson shows his age. However, we don’t live in an ideal world. A guy who has 30 homer 100 RBI potential is going to play everyday. A guy who is making $13 million is going to play everyday. A guy the Mets want to showcase so they can trade him is going to play everyday.
That leaves Conforto on the bench if he is in the majors. With Collins in charge, that leaves you to question when exactly Conforto will play. You know he’s not going to play him against left-handed batters, which is a problem because Bruce, Duda, and Granderson are all left-handed batters. Further complicating the matters is Juan Lagares is going to play against left-handed pitchers, and he is going to be a defensive replacement late in games. On top of that, the Mets are looking to see how Jose Reyes can handle the outfield. Long story short, Conforto’s not going to play, so why are you wasting time trying to get him reps at a position he’s never going to play?
Moreover, why are you wasting time getting him reps at a position he has no future? After the 2017 season Bruce, Duda, and Granderson are free agents. Assuming one or two leave in free agency, there is now a spot for Conforto to play everyday in the outfield whether that be in center or right. The first baseman in 2018 is either going to be Dominic Smith, if he makes strides in 2017 like he did in 2016, or a one year stop gap. Keep in mind that if Smith should falter, Peter Alonso, who has shown he has the potential to be a terrific major league hitter, may not be too far behind.
Overall, the Jay Bruce situtation has put Conforto in a terrible position. He’s either going to be a pinch hitter who gets very little playing time or a minor league player. This is the exact type of situation where you can mess up a prospect. The Mets should not compound this by trying to make him a first baseman when Conforto is likely not going to have a chance to play more than 20 games at first base in his entire career.
No, the Mets should instead use the time to focus on getting Conforto to work on the areas of his game that needs improvement. By doing that, you make him a much better player. By stashing him on the bench and trying to make him a 1B/OF, you are only going to accomplish making him the next Eric Valent.
At the end of the day, which is the better course of action?
One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was the production they received from first base. The precipitous drop in production was a major factor in why the 2016 Mets scored fewer runs than the 2015 Mets. Remember, the 2015 Mets once infamously had John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. With that in mind, getting improved production out of first base needs to be a priority for the Mets this offseason. Here is what should be available for the Mets this offseason:
INTERNAL FIRST BASEMAN
Duda is exactly the player the Mets need to revive their offense in 2017. From 2014-2015, Duda hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. He is a home run threat in the middle of your order, and he is the classic slugging first baseman.
The issue with Duda is no one knows if he is healthy. In 2015, he went on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his lower back. In 2016, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, and he took longer than expected to return from the injury. While he tried admirably to try to play in the Wild Card Game, he just wasn’t ready. For the season, he only played in 47 games hitting .229/.302/.412 with seven homers and 23 RBI.
While all indications are Duda is completely healthy, it is unknown whether he can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule. It is also unknown whether he can return to form after suffering back injuries in consecutive seasons. At the moment, it is anticipated he will earn approximately $7 million in arbitration. For the production we know he is capable of producing, that is a steep bargain. Not knowing if he can produce, $7 million could be an expensive gamble, especially in light of Wright’s situation.
Smith is coming off a terrific year in AA where he finally began to fulfill some of the offensive potential he has by hitting for more power in the second half of the season. He is a a highly regarded prospect who is already a slick defender at first base. Still, he is just 21 years old, and he has yet to have an at-bat above AAA. He is not ready to be the Opening Day first baseman, and it is quite possible he may not be ready to play in the majors next year.
PLAYERS CHANGING POSITIONS
Time and again, people state Wright should just move across the diamond and play first base. Saying that presents a clear misunderstanding of the first base position and how taxing it would be on Wright.
Other than catcher, first base is the most demanding physical position for a player. At first base, a player is constantly stretching, turning, and twisting in the hopes of getting a throw from one of his infielders that much quicker to turn a close play into an out. With a runner on first, the first baseman has to spring off the bag and into his defensive position as the pitcher delivers the ball. Like a third baseman, he charges the bunts and dives for balls down the line. According to Dr. Walter P. Jacobsen, DO, a neurosurgeon, these activities that are high impact and require twisting are activities that should be avoided. These activities are more prevalent at first than third base.
Even assuming this was incorrect, that Wright was better suited to first base, when is he going to get the opportunity to transition there? Wright had season ending cervical fusion surgery, and presumably, he is going to need to spend most of his time in the offseason rehabbing and figuring out yet another pregame routine that will permit him to play in as many games as possible. As such, there is no time for him to learn first base.
Without or without Cespedes’ return, the Mets are going to have a glut of everyday caliber outfielders, and one of them may need to find a new home. That new home could be on another team or at another position. With UZR and DRS rating Bruce was the Mets worst outfielder, he would be the likely candidate to move to first base.
The one caution is Bruce has only played three games there in his major league career, and all three of those games were two years ago. Even accounting for that, Bruce may have the athleticism to adapt to first base and succeed there on the major league level. It is also a way to keep him and his 30 home run caliber bat in the lineup every day while also allowing Curtis Granderson, another Mets right fielder who can hit 30 home runs, in the lineup everyday.
Still, before moving someone over to first base, Mike Piazza should always be a caution to Mets fans that not just anyone can move over there. It is a difficult position that requires hard work in the offseason. If this is the plan, the Mets need to implement it sooner rather than later.
None other than Keith Hernandez believes Conforto should be playing first base with him saying, “He more than likely is going to end up at first base, though it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than average there.” (nj.com). While it is far from a ringing endorsement, it is notable when Hernandez, the best defensive first baseman in major league history, states you should play his position.
For his part, Conforto is open to the possibility saying, “I took some reps in college over at first base just for emergency-type situations. I think that’s something that’s very, very interesting, something I’d be open to, obviously. I just want to help the team.” (New York Post).
Moving Conforto there means you won’t have to displace a veteran like Bruce. However, it does create a few problems. First, choosing to move Conforto over Bruce also means choosing to move the better defensive outfielder out of the outfield. Second, moving Conforto there could become a potential barrier to Smith or Peter Alonso at first base in the upcoming seasons. Third, having Conforto change positions to the infield could be yet another obstacle in the young player’s development.
For a myriad of reasons ranging from a wrist injury to uneven playing time to him just falling into slumps like any other player, the 2016 season was a lost one for Conforto. He went from the Mets top hitting prospect to a young player Terry Collins entrusted to little more than pinch hitting duty down the stretch. It is quite possible the best thing for him is for the Mets to pick a position in the outfield and let him stay there and allow him to work with Kevin Long to get back to what worked well for him.
EXPENSIVE OPTIONS
Tigers GM Al Avila has already announced the Tigers are looking to get younger and shed some payroll this offseason. With that in mind, the Tigers have a number of interesting trade candidates making big money like Cabrera.
At 33, Cabrera had another terrific season hitting .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI. Should Cespedes depart this offseason, Cabrera would more than replace Cespedes in the lineup. However, the Mets chances of obtaining Cabrera are unlikely due to the cost. First, it is going to take a huge haul of players to obtain them, and in the past, the Mets have shown unwillingness to move one of their big pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Steven Matz. Given Cabrera’s production, it is likely the Tigers ask for one of these players and/or a big prospect like Smith, Amed Rosario, or both.
Even if there was a middle ground on players the Mets deemed acceptable, it is hard to imagine them adding Cabrera’s contract. Cabrera still has seven years $132 million left on his deal. The contract carries through to his age 40 season, and there are two vesting options at the back end of the deal for $30 million a piece. If Cabrera does not age well, this contract would become the type of albatross Sandy Alderson typically avoids.
Bringing back Turner would be a page out of the Todd Zeile handbook. While Turner has not played regularly at first base, he has shown the ability to play over there, and his bat may help the Mets improve in 2016.
Moreover, Turner may need to move to first base to lengthen his career. Over the past few seasons, he has had knee issues, and he may not be well suited for the third base position in the time of the modern shift era that requires a third baseman to cover more ground than they did a decade or so ago.
There does remain some issues for Turner. First and foremost is the aforementioned knee issues. Second, Turner took off when he played in his hometown. There is no telling if he would struggle playing on the east coast again. Third, he regressed from an on base perspective this year. In 2014 and 2015, Turner was a player who had a .384 on base percentage with a .492 slugging. This year, Turner’s OBP dropped to .339 even while his slugging percentage stayed in the same vicinity (.493). This might have been a product of his knee issues or it could have been a product of him swinging for the fences more as evidenced by his career high 27 homers.
In either event, Turner is not the safest choice, especially when you are asking him to play out of position. These fears become magnified when you consider Turner will likely received a qualifying offer, and he will likely get a big contract offer from someone, including but not limited to the Dodgers, to play third base.
THE DESIGNATED HITTERS
Encarnacion may prove to be the biggest power bat on the free agent market. He is coming off a year that saw him hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 homers and a league leading 127 RBI. Over the past three seasons, Encarnacion is hitting .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 homers and 112 RBI.
There are two issues with Encarnacion. First, much of his stats have been generated as a result of him hitting in the Rogers Centre, which is a hitter’s park. In his career, Encarnacion has hit .272/.360/.535 there. Last year, on the road, Encarnaction was a .246/.342/.492 hitter on the road. While it is a drop-off, the Mets would gladly take Encarnacion’s road production from their first base position next year.
Therein lies the real problem with Encarnacion. He’s a DH. Encarnacion has not played more than half a season at first base in his entire career. In his last five years with the Blue Jays, he has split his time between first and DH. While advanced metrics like UZR and DRS rate him to be an average first baseman, it is unknown whether he could withstand the rigors of playing in the field everyday. Those concerns are amplified for a player that will turn 34 next year, will command a large contract, and will most likely recent a qualifying offer.
Seemingly, from the moment Santana came up to the Cleveland Indians as a catcher, the team has sought a position for him. He has proven his best position is DH.
Santana is coming off a terrific year that saw him hit ..259/.366/.498 with 34 homers and 87 RBI. Those were the highest home run and RBI totals of his career. In his six full seasons with the Indians, Santana has averaged 24 homers and 81 RBI. With his on base skills and his switch hitting ability, Santana would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup. However, like Encarnacion, the real question is whether he can be an everyday first baseman.
Like Encarnaction, he rates as average when he does play there. Unlike Encarnacion, he played almost a full season there in 2015. Moreover, he is four years younger than Encarnacion. So while both may receive qualifying offers and large contract offers on the free agent market, Santana may prove to be the better bet for the Mets should they look to upgrade the first base position in free agency.
QUESTIONABLE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION
The best thing you can say about Loney in 2016 was he was a definitive upgrade over the Mets internal options like Campbell. Unfortunately, Loney showed little that would entice the Mets to bring him back next season. Loney finished the year hitting .257/.287/.369 with five homers and 18 RBI in 63 games after the All Star Break. He also showed he had limited range and an inability to stretch far for throws made to first. While he was an improvement over what the Mets had in 2016, the Mets are simply going to have to do better than him in 2017.
The Cleveland Indians took a one year flier on Napoli this offseason, and it has been a boon for them as Napoli has been a major contributor for a team now playing in the World Series. Still, there is caution for Napoli, who has a history of hip problems, and whose numbers were not great this season.
In 150 games, Napoli hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 homers and 101 RBI. In 2015, Napoli bounced around, and he hit .224/.324/.410 with 18 homers and 50 RBI in 133 games. With Napoli turning 35 next year, it is hard to believe he will have another strong campaign. Furthermore, the last thing this Mets offense needs is another low OBP guy who is seemingly all or nothing at the plate.
For a few seasons, Lind had proven himself to be a good on base player who may not have the traditional power you typically want from the first base position. In 2016, Lind played for the Mariners, and his production fell off a cliff. In 126 games, Lind hit .239/.286/.431 with 20 homers and 58 RBI. Historically, Lind has also struggled to hit left-handed pitching. Lind is more of a buy-low candidate in the event there are no better options than he is an upgrade you would seek on the free agent market.
BEST CHOICE
Ultimately, it may behoove the Mets to bring back Duda for one more season. If he produces at his normal levels, he will be exactly what this offense needs. Better yet, if he produces at that level, the Mets could give him a qualifying offer next offseason thereby helping them gain a first round draft pick in the process (assuming no changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement). Furthermore, with Duda, the Mets have a nice bridge to Smith should he take another leap this year and prove himself ready to contribute at the major league level ahead of schedule.
Like the Mets, the minor league affiliates’ seasons are long over, and over at Mets Minors, organizational leaderboards are being compiled, and awards are being handed out:
Full Season Batting Leaders – statistically speaking Brandon Nimmo might’ve had the best year especially with him missing out on the Pacific League batting title by .001 points and him having the top OBP in the farm system.
Short Season Batting Leaders – Despite having had the shortest season, Peter Alonso might’ve had the biggest impact
Minor League Best Starting Pitchers – Statistically speaking, the Mets best minor league pitchers were P.J. Conlon, Thomas Szapucki, Harol Gonzalez, Ricky Knapp, and Andrew Church.
Full Season Pitching Leaders – Naturally, the above-referenced pitchers were listed throughout.
Short Season Pitching Leaders – Gonzalez and Gary Cornish dominated for the Brooklyn Cyclones while Szapucki continued to show why he is becoming a big time prospect.
Here is how all the 2015 draft picks fared with Alonso and Justin Dunn as standouts. And nowadays, you would be remiss without mentioning the fact that Tim Tebow homered in his first professional at-bat.
However, here are the bigger awards everyone is most curious about:
Position Player of the Year – Amed Rosario with honorable mention to Dominic Smith
Pitcher of the Year – P.J. Conlon
Reliever of the Year – David Roseboom
As you saw this season, there were major contributors from the Mets minor league system this year. If not for Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Josh Smoker, T.J. Rivera, and others, the Mets may not make the postseason this year. It is not only good to know the Mets minor league system has been this beneficial, but also that there is a significant amount of talent behind the players we have already seen contribute.