Noah Syndergaard
After Noah Syndergaard allowed a fourth inning laser homerun to Yasmany Tomas, it looked like Syndergaard was going to have to take matters into his own hands if the Mets were going to win the game. He did:
The home run was Syndergaard’s third of the year tying him with Tom Seaver and Walt Terrell for the Mets single season home run record. Syndergaard’s homer was a no doubter homer scoring him and Alejandro De Aza giving the Mets a 3-1 lead.
De Aza was on second because Michael Bourn absolutely robbed Rene Rivera of an extra base hit. With runners on second and third, it turned into a sacrifice fly scoring T.J. Rivera. It was part of a huge inning the Mets had off Braden Shiply that saw the Mets bat around scoring four runs.
That Syndergaard home run did more than give the Mets the lead, it sparked the offense. Later on that inning, Jose Reyes tripled and scored on a Curtis Granderson sacrifice fly. In the fifth, Kelly Johnson would lead off the inning with a solo home run. Rivera would then single and score on a De Aza double. De Aza would then come home on a two out RBI infield single by Reyes. Just like that it was 7-1 Mets through the first five and a half innings.
However, it wasn’t a laugher. Nothing is that easy with the Mets.
The Diamondbacks sixth inning rally started on a Rivera “throwing error” allowing Jake Lamb to reach. It wasn’t a great throw, but it was another example of James Loney not making a full stretch at first base. Lamb and Wellington Castillo would score on a Mitch Haniger triple. Haniger would come in to score on a Rivera two out fielding error (that one was on him). Overall, while Syndergaard started the game out strong, he would up struggling again. He pitched 5.2 innings allowing seven hits, four runs, two earned, and two walks with eight strikeouts. He was fortunately bailed out by Jerry Blevins to end the sixth.
In the seventh, Hansel Robles continued his recent shaky play giving up a leadoff double to Paul Goldschmidt and issuing a two out walk to Castillo. Terry Collins would then go to Addison Reed as he is the only person on the planet that does not know the Reed isn’t good with inherited runners. Reed was welcomed with a Haniger (him again) double scoring Goldschmidt. Just like that it was 7-5 Mets, and they were in for a fight.
Fortunately, Reed would settle down in the eighth with a 1-2-3 innings, and Jeurys Familia would slam the door shut in the ninth. With that, the Mets are now a game over .500 again, and they kept pace in the Wild Card race.
Game Notes: Rivera was a surprise late replacement for Neil Walker who had to sit out the game with a sore back. Rivera had the two errors, but he had a strong day at the plate going 4-4 with two runs. Reyes seems closer to his old self going 2-4 with a run, RBI, and a triple. Jay Bruce had his best day as a Met going 2-4 with a walk.
Pennant Race: The Dodgers beat the Phillies 15-5. The Reds beat the Marlins 6-3. The Cardinals beat the Astros 8-5. The Rockies beat the Nationals 6-2. The Pirates beat the Dodgers 4-3. The Mets are in third place in the NL East 10.5 games out, and they are 3 games out of the final Wild Card spot behind the Cardinals, Pirates, and Marlins.
Regardless of the results what Steven Matz has been doing this season has been admirable. Matz knows he’s going to need surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow, and yet he still goes out there and pitches because his team needs him.
With that said the results haven’t been pretty. From June 7th until August 9th, Matz has gone 1-7 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.435 WHIP. That is a precipitous drop from the guy who started the year 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.030 WHIP. The main reason for the dip is he’s getting hit much harder. He’s gone from an 18% line drive rate with batters hitting .225/.272/.294 with four homers to a 28% line drive rate with batters hitting .297/.346/.475 with 10 homers.
During his slump or whatever you want to call it, Matz has been without his main breaking pitch – the fabled Warthen slider. In the beginning of the year, he threw it 15% of the time. Beginning June 7th, he was only throwing it 8% of the time.
In place of the change, Matz began throwing more changeups going from throwing it 9% of the time to throwing it 14% of the time. It’s not a wise move as opposing batters hit .340 against the pitch while slugging .630. He’s fooling no one with the changeup and the opposition has been teeing off on the pitch.
Sunday, Matz effectively scrapped both his changeup and his slider focusing on his fastball and curveball. The result was a near no-hitter.
Over 7.1 dazzling innings, Matz only allowed the one hit allowing no runs and two walks with eight strikeouts. It was his best start since May. It was a return to the Steven Matz everyone once believed would emerge to join Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard as one of four aces atop the Mets staff.
Matz did it, in part, because he threw a lot more curveballs. He threw 29% curves on Sunday after throwing it 14% of the time ro start the year. It was the right move as it’s arguably his second best pitch (after his abandoned slider). Matz limits batters to a .235 batting average with his curveball, which is the second lowest batting average allowed against any one of his pitches.
With the fastball and curveball working, the only player who would get a hit off of Matz would be Alex Rios‘ former teammate Alexei Ramirez. Like Harvey, Matz wouldn’t get the no-hitter. Unlike Harvey, his teammates would score runs did him a get the win.
Wilmer Flores and Neil Walker hit solo homers in the first two innings respectively off Padres left-hander Clayton Richard giving Matz and the Mets a 2-0 lead.
In the eighth, the Mets actually scored some insurance runs. Jose Reyes led off the inning with a single. He’d steal second and move to third when Padres catcher Derek Norris threw it into center. Reyes then scored on a Jose Dominguez wild pitch. All of this happened during Ty Kelly‘s at bat. It was vintage Reyes.
The rally continued after the Reyes one man show, and it culminated in a T.J. Rivera two out two RBI double scoring Kelly and Jay Bruce. It was the first extra base hit and RBI in Kelly’s young career. It made the score 5-0.
The final score would be 5-1 after Gabriel Ynoa allowed a run in the ninth. On the bright side, the Mets are 2-0 in games Ynoa pitched. Speaking of which, the Mets have finally won two games in a row.
Overall, the story was Matz. He had a magical afternoon, and he made an adjustment to allow him to pitch more effectively.
Pennant Race: Thr Marlins beat the White Sox 5-4. The Nationals beat the Braves 9-1. Three Cardinals beat the Cubs 6-4. The Pirates bested the Dodgers 11-4.
For the second straight year, it appears that the Mets have been snakebitten. They have lost Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright to season ending injuries. It would be easy to blame injuries like these as well as the other injuries the Mets have had for the team underachieving this season. There’s just one problem with that – the Mets have been amongst the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
According to Spotrac, the Mets rank 15th in the majors and 8th in the National League with the team having placed 13 players on the disabled list. With those 13 players on the disabled list, the Mets have missed 549 player days, which ranks 23rd in the majors and 12th in the National League.
Now, there are some fair criticisms in pointing just to the disabled list figures. First, as we have seen with the Mets handling of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets wait too long before putting a player on the disabled list. Second, this list does not account for players like Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard who are pitching despite having bone spurs in their elbows which will have to be surgically removed in the offseason. However, this point-of-view is a bit myopic when considering the injuries the Mets main competition for the two Wild Card spots have endured.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The 63-49 Dodgers currently have the top Wild Card spot by four games. They have also put a major league leading 25 players on the disabled list while losing a major league leading 1,400 player days.
Brett Anderson was gone for the season before he threw a pitch, Hyun-Jin Ryu only made one start, and Alex Wood lasted just 10 starts. That’s 3/5 of the Dodgers Opening Day rotation up in smoke. On top of that, the Dodgers have lost important bullpen pieces in Yimi Garcia and Chin-hui Tsao.
The Dodgers have also been decimated in the outfield. Valuable fourth outfielder and bench bat Andre Ethier was also gone before the season started. He was needed more than usual considering the Dodgers finally released Carl Crawford, had to deal with Yasiel Puig not producing, and recently losing the pleasantly surprising Trayce Thompson in the outfield.
All of this pales in comparison to the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw to the disabled list. Kershaw was once again dominating, was the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, and quite possibly an MVP candidate. With his back injury, no one can be quite sure when he will return. There is no more damaging blow to any team in all of baseball than the Dodgers losing Kershaw.
And yet, the Dodgers keep winning games, and that is why they find themselves the current Wild Card leader.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have put one fewer player on the disabled list than the Mets, but they have also lost 174 more player days to the disabled list. Like the Dodgers, they are also ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card Standings.
The biggest injury the Cardinals have had to deal with is their starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Offseason surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb has limited him to 36 games this season. When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. Initially, the Cardinals opted to go with Mets cast-off Ruben Tejada as Peralta’s short term replacment, but he was inffective and wounded up on the disabled list himself. His replacement, Aledmys Diaz was having a terrific rookie season which led to him being named an All Start. However, he is now on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in this thumb.
The Cardinals have also had a number of key position player injuries. During the season, the Cardinals have placed Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham on the disabled list at points during the season. This has left the team looking to find solutions at first base and center field during the season.
The Cardinals pitching staff has also been hit hard. Lance Lynn went from a member of the rotation to losing the entire 2016 season to Tommy John surgery. Closer Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness all year, and he has finally wound up on the disabled list. One of his key set-up men, Jordan Walden, has yet to throw a pitch all season due to a shoulder strain and a lat injury. The team also had to deal with losing key relievers from last season, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, for a stretch of time.
Recently, they had Michael Wacha and Matt Holliday go down with what could be season ending injuries.
Despite these injuries, the Cardinals are 2.5 games up on the Mets this season in the Wild Card standings.
National League East
It is interesting to note that the two teams the Mets are chasing in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals, are two of the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
For the Marlins part, it seems to be a combination of good luck and youth. Seven of the eight Marlins everyday players are 28 and younger. The two 28 year olds, Justin Bour (ankle sprain) and Dee Gordon (PED suspension) are the only players from the starting lineup to be placed on the disabled list this season.
Other than Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins pitching staff has been remarkably healthy. Most importantly, Jose Fernandez has been the dominant starting pitcher he was always supposed to be.
The Nationals being so health is quite remarkable. Each and every season, players like Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman were usually good for at least one disabled list stint during the course of the season. So far this year, Starsburg had a short stint on the disabled list, and Zimmerman just landed on the disabled list with a wrist contusion.
The reason why the Nationals are in a much better place injury wise is part luck, but it is mostly them doing things differently. They created a larger and a multi disciplined medical team of experts to address injuries. They have addressed each and every aspect of player preparation and health. The result so far is a much healthier Nationals team both on and off the field.
The Nationals changing how they have approached injuries show how other teams have adapted and dealt with injuries better than the Mets – so have the other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots. The Mets aren’t trailing in the Wild Card race due to their health. In fact, they may still be in the race because the Dodgers and Cardinals have had to deal with more injuries than they have.
Do you wish Terry Collins will become a better manager?
Do you wish Jay Bruce will start hitting like he was hitting for the Reds this year?
Do you wish Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jim Henderson, Juan Lagares, Jose Reyes, Justin Ruggiano and/or Zack Wheeler can get off the disabled list soon?
Do you wish Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz will return to their pre-bone spur form?
Do you wish Curtis Granderson can return to his 2015 form?
Do you wish Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud will stop regressing and start fulfilling their promise?
Do you wish Neil Walker can stay this hot for the rest of the season?
Well for all those that wish for all that and much more like a postseason berth, Grandpa Gustafson has a message for you:
This matchup was supposed to be Justin Verlander versus his heir apparent Noah Syndergaard. Instead, we got to see more of the struggling Syndergaard.
In the first, Ian Kinsler would steal second and third off the battery of Syndergaard and Rene Rivera. He would then score on a Miguel Cabrera RBI ground out.
Kelly Johnson gave Syndergaard and the Mets a 2-1 lead with a two run home run off Verlander in the fourth. That 2-1 lead would have been good enough for Syndergaard a couple of months ago. However, this diminished bone-chipped version of Syndergaard would give the lead right back in the bottom of the fourth.
First, he allowed a long two run home run to Victor Martinez. The Tigers would continue the rally scoring another run on a James McCann RBI single. It should be noted that it was J.D. Martinez who scored on the play after doubling to right field.
Jay Bruce made a strong throw to second, but Matt Reynolds laid down an awkward tag. Still, Reynolds held the tag on Martinez. Replays would show Martinez came off the bad, but Terry Collins would not challenge. Martinez would score later making it 4-2. It would prove to be the deciding run in the game.
Syndergaard would make it through six innings throwing 112 pitches. His pitch count rose in part because he has issued a 10 pitch walk to Nick Castellanos and a nine pitch walk to Victor Martinez. It is indicative of Syndergaard’s location being off. Syndergaard’s final line was six innings, seven hits, four runs, four earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts.
In contrast to Syndergaard, Verlander wouldn’t struggle. He dominanted the Mets over six innings allowing four hits, two runs, two earned, and one walk with nine strikeouts. Those nine gives him an American League leading 164 on the season.
The Mets offense only mustered four hits until the ninth. The team had gone 0-3 with runners in scoring position. Even if you were to claim Verlander was that dominant, it does not explain why the Mets couldn’t do anything against a Tigers bullpen that entered the game with a 4.18 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .266 batting average against.
Former Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez would come on and survive a Mets rally in the ninth. Neil Walker had a leadoff single, moved to second on a wild pitch, and to third on a Bruce ground out. He scored on a James Loney ground out ending the rally. The final score was 4-3 with the deciding run being scored Martinez, who would have been out if Collins challenged the play.
Yet again, the Mets have failed to win back-to-back games. They haven’t done so since July 6th – July 7th. The Nationals won moving the Mets back to nine games out in the division. The Cardinals and Marlins are leading in their games. And, oh yeah, Gary Apple is terrible.
Game Notes: Today’s game of center field musical chairs had Brandon Nimmo in center, Alejandro De Aza in left, and Curtis Granderson at DH. Michael Conforto sat even though it was a right-handed pitcher on the mound.
One of the most exciting things about the 2016 season was supposed to be seeing Noah Syndergaard take the next step towards becoming an ace. In his first start, he certainly didn’t disappoint averaging 99 MPH on his fastball and getting his slider over 95 MPH. From the very beginning, Syndergaard established that he was going to be a dominating and intimidating presence.
And that’s just what he was. In his first 15 starts, Syndergaard was averaging 99 MPH on his fastball and 92 MPH on his slider. He was striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings, and opponents were only able to hit .231/.257/.325 off of him. During this impressive stretch to begin the season, Syndergaard emerged as the staff’s ace with an 8-2 record, a 2.08 ERA, and a 0.989 WHIP. He was not only in the conversation with pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta as candidates to start the All Star Game, but also as early season candidates to win the Cy Young Award.
On June 27th, disaster seemingly struck. He would only last three innings allowing seven hits, five runs, five earned, and three walks with only five strikeouts. There was something clearly wrong with him, and it was discovered after the game, Syndergaard had bone chips in his elbow.
Since the bone spurs were discovered, Syndergaard’s velocity has dropped. He has been averaging “only” 98 MPH on his fastball and 91 MPH on his slider. In his subsequent July 8th start, . After that start, it was discovered Syndergaard was dealing with a dead arm. In his last inning of work, his fastball, not his changeup, his fastball would hit 91 MPH. On the day, he would only last 4.2 innings allowing four hits, three runs, three earned, and no walks with four strikeouts. Between the bone chips and the dead arm, Syndergaard would have to miss the All Star Game. He would also miss out on being the same dominant pitcher he was to start the season.
Overall, each and every single one of his pitches have been less effective, and he has had a more difficult time putting people away. From June 27th on, batters are hitting .299/.369/.417 off of him. During this six start stretch, he has gone 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.577 WHIP. A large part of all of this is he is having difficulty locating his pitches. Keep in mind that in his first 15 starts, he walked a total of 12 batters over 91.0 innings. In his most recent six start clip, he has walked 13 batters over 32.1 innings. Jacob deGrom has eclipsed him to reclaim his position as the Mets ace.
The Mets are now in the dog days of August, and they are still in the heat of the Wild Card race. With all the injuries the team has sustained, they need all of their healthy players to perform at the highest possible level they can in order to make the postseason. However, given the dead arm and the bone chips, it is questionable if Syndergaard can return back to form and lead the Mets back to the postseason.
Right now, if you were going to list what the Mets problems were, two things that would be discussed ad nauseaum would be the offense and hitting with runners in scoring position. While it has not been discussed as frequently, Yoenis Cespedes‘ and Juan Lagares‘ injuries also make center field an issue for the Mets.
The Mets acquisition of Jay Bruce presumably solves the first two Mets problems while only further confounding the center field issue.
First, the offense. There is no doubt that Jay Bruce is your classic left-handed slugger that should be hitting in an RBI position in your lineup. This year Bruce is hitting .265/.316/.559 with 22 doubles, six triples, 25 homers, and a major league leading 80 RBI. He also isn’t a Great American Ballpark creation as Bruce has hit better on the road. In road games, Bruce has slashed .277/.318/.582. More importantly to Mets fans, Bruce is hitting .360/.406/.719 with runners in scoring position. Ideally, the Mets would bat him fifth in the lineup as Bruce has been hitting .290/.340/.603 from that spot in the order.
Still, there is some cause for concern with Bruce. As we see with his stats, he is not nor has he ever been a great on base guy. He is also a guy who is a platoon type of bat as he is hitting .250/.287/.491 off of lefties this year. With that in mind, the Mets might have just added a player that is more of the same.
He is also coming off two straight seasons that saw him hit a combined .222/.288/.406 while averaging 22 homers and 76 RBI. If his July, where he hit .218/.289/.529, is any indication, he might be becoming that type of player again. Furthermore, Bruce has not hit well at all in Citi Field. In 21 games, Bruce has hit .186/.275/.443 with five homers and 13 RBI. Hopefully, some of that is a short sample size and some of that is Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.
Regardless, Bruce is an offensive upgrade for an injured and under-performing Mets team. However, he is not a defensive upgrade for a team that needs a center field solution.
If reports are true, Bruce is being brought here to play right field rather than to play first base in place of James Loney. That would shift Granderson from right to center. As we saw in the one game Granderson played in center this year, there is a reason why he has not played center regularly since 2012. The other issue is that while Granderson has had a down year defensively in right field, he has been much better than Bruce, who has posted a -11.5 UZR and a -13 DRS this past year. Over the previous two seasons, Bruce has averaged a -5.2 UZR and a -1 DRS meaning he is worse this year than he has been over his career.
With Bruce’s struggles, Granderson’s inability to play center, and Yoenis Cespedes playing on one leg, this outfield should be reminiscent, if not worse, than the Cliff Floyd–Roger Cedeno–Jeromy Burnitz outfield that was seen as an unmitigated disaster defensively.
The other issue is where does this leave Michael Conforto? After everything that has happened this year, are the Mets really going to make him a bench player? Is he going to platoon with another left-handed batter? Does he move to first base? Aren’t you now forced to send him down to AAA until September call-ups? This really leaves your best young hitter and future of your team in a lurch. With all that in mind, it is a very curious move, especially when there was no corresponding move to address any of the Mets other needs.
Overall, Bruce solves some of the Mets problems while exacerbating some others. The best way to deal with all of these issues is for both he and his new teammates to just go out there and hit.