Noah Syndergaard

Mets Look Like the Real Deal

In case you forgot why the Mets went on a run last August, you were reminded of it tonight. The Mets got dominant pitching from Noah Syndergaard, a home run from Yoenis Cespedes, and completely dominating an inferior team in a 12-1 victory. 

Overall, Syndergaard seems to be back in a groove after struggling while adapting to pitching with bone spurs. He only made one mistake to Freddy Galvis in the third giving the Phillies a very short lived 1-0 lead. 

Syndergaard would shake it off and dominate the Phillies from there on out. His final line was seven innings, two hits, one run, one earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts.  He is now 12-7 with a 2.55 ERA and close to getting himself back in the Cy Young race. 

He would get a lead in the bottom of the third on an Asdrubal Cabrera two run homer:

It was the first of four Mets homers on the night, and it was another huge game for Cabrera. He was 3-4 with two runs, two RBI, one walk, and the aforementioned homer. 

The Mets next homer would come from Cespedes – who else?  

The three run shot scored Syndergaard and  Jose Reyes, who did his job setting the table tonight going 3-5 with two runs. 

The Mets then blew the doors open in the seventh scoring six runs. Alejandro De Aza hit a two RBI bases loaded double off the center field wall and  just past the leaping Odubel HerreraKelly Johnson then hit a pinch hit grand slam to make it 11-1. 

New dad Neil Walker then hit his 23rd homer on the season in the eight to make it 12-0. The home run ties his career high. 

With that, the Mets are flexing their muscles again, and they are taking advantage of bad baseball teams to beef up their record. Tomorrow the Mets go for the sweep. 

Game Notes: Jay Bruce was given what was called a mental day off. His injure leg had nothing to do with it. Curtis Granderson continued his struggles going 0-4 with a run, walk, and a strikeout. 

Pennant Race: The Nationals lost to the Rockies 9-4. The Cardinals lost to the Athletics 3-2. 

Key to Winning the Wild Card: Beat the Teams You’re Supposed to Beat

There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. 

The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt HarveyLucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs.  Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. 

That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat. 

Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks  can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace. 

The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them. 

The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record. 

The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark. 

Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title. 

In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division. 

Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.  

Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card. 

Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it. 

The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies. 

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

Stop Blaming Travis d’Arnaud for Everything

There is no sugar coating it.  Travis d’Arnaud has had a bad year.  Blame his shoulder.  Blame the hex the Mets have seemingly been under this year.  Blame whatever you want.  The simple fact remains d’Arnaud has had a horrible year.  You can even say he has regressed offensively.

However, behind the plate, he is the same guy he has always been.  He is still a terrific pitch framer that helps his staff by helping ensure that strikes are called strikes and by occasionally getting a ball called a strike.  He allows very few passed balls.  When there is a play at the plate, d’Arnaud is not only adept at fielding a throw, but he does a great job blocking the plate within the terms of the new rules.  As seen last night, he goes a great job in making sure he gets the tag on the runner before they have a chance to touch the plate.

He is slightly below average in throwing out base stealers when there is a pitcher on the mound that bothers holding on runners.  When the pitcher doesn’t hold runners on, like most catcher’s he virtually has no chance to throw out the base runner.  Generally speaking, he seems to call a good game, and there have never been any public complaints from any of his pitchers about his abilities behind the plate.

The reason is on the average d’Arnaud is a good defensive catcher.  While it was anticipated that d’Arnaud’s value would be in his bat, the truth is, as a major leaguer so far, his real value is as a receiver.

With all that said, it seems d’Arnaud has been the scapegoat for this entire 2016 season.  With the Mets struggling offensively, the team sought to upgrade the position by aggressively pursuing Jonathan Lucroy.  Apparently, James Loney and his 86 OPS+ wasn’t hurting the team.  When someone steals a base, it is on him.  Nevermind the fact that Rene Rivera also has a supbar caught stealing percentage (28.6%) or that Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz don’t bother holding on base runners.  On a team where no one is hitting well, he is the guy slated to hit eighth.  Seemingly, d’Arnaud has been blamed for everything.  It is a shock no one has pinned Yoenis Cespedes injuring his quad on d’Arnaud.

Even with that in mind Nelon Figueroa took blaming d’Arnaud to a new level.  After the game, Figureoa pinned part of the blame for Jacob deGrom’s poor outing on d’Arnaud.  Figueroa took issue with d’Arnaud not going out to the mound to calm down deGrom (frankly, a lost art in the game that few catchers do), and with his pitch selection saying d’Arnaud failed to call inside pitchers.  Only that’s not what happened.

According to deGrom, it was on him saying, “It’s hard to get results when you throw everything right down the middle.  That’s what it is. I’m missing down the middle and these are big-league hitters and that’s what they do.”  (New York Post).

There is no amount of pitch calling, pitch framing, or pep talks that can cure a starting pitcher who has just been completely missing his spots for two days now.  There are very fair and valid criticisms of d’Arnaud.  As noted, he doesn’t throw base runners out.  Furthermore, he is having a terrible offensive season.  That’s all on him.  However, things are going overboard with people now blaming him for other player’s poor performance.

Jacob deGrom Needs a Big Start

This will be the third time after the All Star Break that Jacob deGrom is pitching in an important game against a team in the thick of the playoff race.  The first two times did not go well.

On July 23rd, the Mets were coming off a 5-3 victory against the Marlins.  If the Mets were able to win consecutive games for the first time in almost a month, the Mets would’ve jumped a half game over the Marlins and claimed the second Wild Card spot.  However, deGrom faltered in his first start after his career complete game shutout.  He allowed five earned on 10 hits in only 3.2 innings in a game the Mets lost 7-2.  Instead of being a half-game behind the Marlins, the Mets were 1.5 games back, and they have not yet caught up to the Marlins in the standings.

On August 18th, the Mets were at .500 after a terrible nine game stretch against two of the worst teams in baseball.  The Mets sent deGrom to the mound in what was supposed to be a classic pitcher’s duel against Madison Bumgarner.  Neither pitcher lived up to the billing.  For his part, deGrom would only last five innings surrendering a career high 13 hits while allowing eight earned in the Mets 10-7 loss to the Giants.  With the loss, the Mets would fall back under .500, and they would fall 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.

The Mets have been playing much better of late having won three in a row.  With last night’s win over the Cardinals, the Mets are a game over .500 and are 3.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.  With a win, the Mets will have won four in a row, pulled a game closer to the Cardinals, and they will have real momentum.

Tonight’s game won’t be easy.  The Mets are going against Carlos Martinez, who has been the Cardinals’ best pitcher all season.  That means deGrom is going to have to be at his best.  He hasn’t been in these situations since the All Star Break.

However, to say he isn’t capable of going out there tonight and pitching a gem tonight is absurd.  It was deGrom who started off the NLDS last year out-dueling Clayton Kershaw to give the Mets a 1-0 lead in the series.  In that game, deGrom struck out 13 Dodgers over seven shutout innings.  In Game Five of that series, deGrom had nothing, but he outlasted Zack Greinke and kept the Mets in the game over six of the gutsiest innings you will ever see a Mets pitcher throw.  In the NLCS, deGrom effectively ended the series with a dominant Game Three performance.

No matter how you slice or dice it, deGrom is a big game pitcher.  Just because he has faltered in his two chances after the All Star Break doesn’t mean he won’t go out there tonight and shut down the Cardinals.  While Noah Syndergaard could have the best stuff in all of baseball, deGrom is the Mets pitcher you trust most out there.  He is the ace of the staff.  He’s going to have a big game tonight.

Gary Cohen Wins the Hair Contest

With Jacob deGromNoah Syndergaard, and now Robert Gsellman, the Mets feature a team with a number a players with long flowing locks:

None of that could prepare you for the Gary Cohen photo from college during the game last night:

  
Who knew Gary Cohen was a hippy?  Heck, who knew he had hair?  

At this point, seeing Gary Cohen, it’s fair to say none of the Mets will beat either this photo or this hair style. 

Where the Mets Competition Stacks Up Right Now

Ahead of a huge three game set against the St. Louis Cardinals, the 61-61 New York Mets are at .500 and are 4.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.  Even with a good series here, nothing is guaranteed as the Mets are one of four teams currently withing five games of the last Wild Card spot.  Here is where they all stand:

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are currently the second Wild Card with a 66-57 record.  The team is hot having gone 7-3 in their last 10 games.  The Cardinals hot streak is surprising given the fact that they are without Matt Adams, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, Seth Maness, and Trevor Rosenthal.  The current Cardinals streak is a testament to their depth, resiliency, and the managing ability of Mike Matheny.  Either that or it is a random hot streak, and the Mets are in prime position to take them down.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins are at 65-59 and are 1.5 games back of the Cardinals.  Over their last 10 games, the Marlins are playing .500 ball.  Worse yet for the team, they are starting to deal with some major injury problems.  The team is most likely without Giancarlo Stanton and Wei-Yin Chen for the rest of the season.  The team is currently without Adam Conley, and they have the prospect of having to shut down Jose Fernandez at some point in the season.  Andrew Cashner was supposed to help alleviate some of these issues, but he has remained the same pitcher he was with the Padres.  Offensively, first baseman Justin Bour has been on the disabled list for quite a while, but no one quite knows when he will return.

Over the course of the season, the Marlins have been a pleasant surprise (if you’re not a Mets fan).  Ichiro Suzuki seems rejuvenated and got his 3,000 hit.  Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds have changed the culture while helping young players like Christian Yelich reach their potential.  However, now that they are no longer healthy, there is real doubt that they can stay in the race.

Pittsburgh Pirates

As we have seen with the Pirates the past few seasons, the Pirates a second half team.  They are currently 62-59, three games back, and have a favorable schedule from here on out.

The Pirates are turning things around by turning over their rotation.  They have traded away struggling and underperforming pieces in Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese and have replaced them with top prospect Jameson Taillon and former Yankee Ivan Nova.  Nova seems to be the type of pitcher pitching coach Ray Searage thrives with, and it certainly hasn’t hurt him being reunited with his old catcher Francisco Cervelli.

Part of the reason the Pirates are in this position is not just their rotation, but it was also due to the struggles of Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen is having a big second half.  Coupled with Starling Marte‘s terrific season, and the Pirates suddenly have a potent lineup.

In the end, the big question is if the young Pirates rotation and a bullpen without Mark Melancon can continue a second half charge to claim the second Wild Card spot.

New York Mets

The Mets have been a mess since April.  Most of their players were hurt, stopped hitting, or both.  However, now, the team is healthy, or as healthy as they can possibly be.  Seeing Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup reminds you of the difference maker he is in the Mets lineup, and it is a reminder of the type of run the Mets are capable of making.  For that to happen, the Mets are going to need more of the same from Jacob deGrom, and they are going to need Noah Syndergaard to keep pitching the way he did yesterday.  The Mets will also need their other pitchers to step up especially if Steven Matz is going to be out for the season like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are.

In the end, if the Mets are goign to run, they have to start with them taking the Cardinals down a few pegs in this three game set starting tomorrow.  If the Mets are not able to at least win two out of three, it is going to be an even steeper hill to climb to make it back to the postseason.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

Ya Gotta Believe Again

On August 22, 1973, the Mets won their second game in a row to raise the Mets record to 57-67 leaving them 6.0 games out in the National League East behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.

From that point forward, the Mets would be the hottest team in baseball going 25-12 carrying them to an unlikely division championship. The Mets rode the hot streak to beat the Big Red Machine 3-2 in a best of five NLCS, and they came within a win of disrupting the Oakland A’s dynasty.

The popular story was the Mets were spurred by Tug McGraw screaming “Ya Gotta Believe!” after a M.Donald Grant “pep talk” in July. However, the truth is that team just got healthy at the right time, and when the team was at 100%, they were among the best teams in baseball.

During that year, the team was hampered by injuries. Jerry GroteJohn MilnerBud Harrelson, and Cleon Jones all missed significant time. Rusty Staub player through injuries all year.  On top of that phenom Jon Matlack was having a down year a year removed from winning the Rookie of the Year Award.  He was joined by Jerry Koosman in having a surprising down year.  Willie Mays looked to be every bit of his 42 years of age.  Young fill-ins like Don Hahn just were not producing.  The Mets were forced to do anything they could do to improve the team like releasing dead weight like Jim Fregosi.  About all that went right that season for the Mets was Tom Seaver; that and the fact that no one ran away with the division allowing the Mets to enter the postseason with an 82-79 record.

Isn’t that what this Mets season has been.  With Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Adrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, we have seen this Mets team be hampered time and again by injuries.  We have seen countless Mets play through injuries like Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz with their bone spurs.  We’ve seen replacements like Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds not play up to snuff.  Players like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto had surprising down years.  About the only thing that has gone right for the Mets this year is the fact that Jacob deGrom has continued to pitch like an ace, and the fact that no one has ran away with the second Wild Card spot.

Maybe, just maybe, this is 1973 all over again.  That 1973 team was much further back in both the standings and more teams to leapfrog in the standings.  All they needed to do was to get healthy and to get hot.  Right now, with Cespedes back and hitting home runs for the Mets again, this team is healthy, and they are on the verge of getting hot.  If that happens, the Mets can very well take that second Wild Card spot and get into the postseason.

As we saw in 1973 as well as last year, with great Mets pitching, the Mets can beat anyone in the postseason.  They can shock the world.  Anything is possible so long as they get hot and get into the postseason.

Syndergaard and Cespedes Give You Reason to Believe Again

Both Noah Syndergaard and Jeff Samardzjia had no hit type stuff tonight. Syndergaard would lose the no-hitter first after an Eduardo Nunez infield single hit at Asdrubal Cabrera in the fourth. However, it was Syndergaard who would keep the shut out. 

Curtis Granderson finally broke through for the Mets with a leadoff double just past the outstretched arms of Gregor Blanco. The next batter was Yoenis Cespedes, who did this:

Just like that it went from a no-hitter to 2-0 Mets. Yet again, Cespedes showed everyone why no one can count this Mets team out while he’s healthy and producing. 

Those were really the only two mistakes by Samardzjia who was the hard luck loser with a final line of seven innings, three hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. 

Speaking of reasons to believe, Syndergaard pitched into the eighth inning since June 15th. Syndergaard’s final line was eight innings, two hits, no runs, two walks, and six strikeouts. 

Even better, no one got past first. In the third Bruce Bochy ordered a hit-and-run with Samardzjia up due to how hard Jose Reyes and James Loney were charging in on the sacrifice bunt attempt. Samardzjia swung over the pitch, and Rene Rivera nailed Trevor Brown at second. 

Again, Rivera threw out the speedy Nunez trying to swipe second in the fourth. Rivera was a perfect 2/2 in throwing out base stealers. It was the first time all year multiple base stealers were thrown out in a Syndergaard start. 

Finally, in the seventh, Brandon Belt was erased as Brandon Crawford hit into an inning ending 4-6-3 double play. It was the second double play the Mets turned on the night. 

Jeurys Familia recorded his 41st save after pitching a scoreless ninth. 
The Mets earned a split in San Francisco bringing them back to .500 and leaving them 4.5 games back of the Cardinals as they travel to St. Louis for a huge three game set. 

Game Notes: Neil Walker is expected to fly home to be with his wife who is expecting with their first child. It is unknown when he will return. Jay Bruce continued his struggles with the Mets going 0-3 with a HBP. 

Pennant Race: The Dodgers beat the Reds 4-0. The Marlins beat the Pirates 3-2. The Cardinals beat the Phillies 9-0. The Nationals lost to the Braves 7-6 in 10 innings. 

Studies Say Don’t Implement the 20 Second Pitch Clock

Commissioner Rob Manfred has recently announced that he is interested in introducing a pitch clock to Major League Baseball.  The pitch clock was first introduced last year in the upper levels of the minors, and it appears the Commissioner is pleased with it’s progress.

The rule as stated is that a pitcher must starts his windup or motion within 20 seconds of having the ball while stepping on the pitching rubber.  The rule has initiated in the minors to help speed the pace of play which has been the Commissioner’s focus since he took over for Bud Selig.  The Commissioner has considered various routes including limiting the use of relievers.  However, it appears the Commissioner is focusing upon the pitch clock as a means to improve the pace a play.  It’s a bad idea that may lead to pitcher injuries.

According to a recent study from the Journal of Sports Science, there is a link between the amount of time a pitcher takes between pitches and arm injuries.  The researchers, Michael Sonne and Peter Keir analyzed the amount of time between pitches and arm injuries, and from there, they were able to make the correlation.  According to Sonne, “One of the risk factors that we typically look at with muscle fatigue and injury is the amount of time people have to recover from doing effort.”  (Brendan Kennedy, The Star).  When a pitcher experiences fatigue according to Sonne, “you essentially lose the ability to stabliize the (elbow) joint as they throw.”  Overall, when looking at pitchers, Sonne states you need to look “at the duration of exposure to pitching, but also the duration of rest.”

To that end, the researchers have concluded that baseball’s proposed 20 second pitch clock is a bad idea.  Sonne states, “If you put in this pitch clock it’s a very cut-and-dry way of reducing the amount of recovery time that a pitcher has.”Sonne and Keir concluded that the 20 second pitch clock would create muscle fatigue for pitchers who take longer than 20 seconds between pitches, and as a result, it would expose them to injury.  It may not seem like a big deal, but as Sonne points out, “It seems like a small amount, but when a pitcher is throwing at maximum effort, every bit of muscle force matters.”

This proposed rule is a huge problem for the Mets young pitchers.  As per Fangraphs, the young Mets starters have needed more than 20 seconds to throw a pitch

Name Team Pace Pitches
Noah Syndergaard Mets 23.9 2,238
Steven Matz Mets 18.7 2,153
Jacob deGrom Mets 21.1 2,065
Matt Harvey Mets 21.5 1,514

 

It should be noted that according to FiveThirtyEight, a pitcher’s pace is the one statistic that remains consistent each and every year.  A pitchers ERA, WHIP, K/9, etc. will rise and fall each and every year, but pace is the one thing that remains largely unchanged.  This means that Syndergaard’s, deGrom’s, and Harvey’s health would be at risk in the event that the 20 second pitch clock were implemented.

Keep in mind that Harvey, Matz, and deGrom have already had Tommy John surgery.  Additionally, Harvey recently had surgery to remove a rib to help alleviate the symptoms from his thoracic outlet syndrome.  While Syndergaard has not had Tommy John surgery, he has been dealing with bone spurs in his elbow.  Syndergaard also throws the ball at a high velocity, has begun throwing a slider with much more frequency, and he is experiencing a large jump in his innings pitched from 2014.  Adding a pitch clock will only further serve to create another possible avenue by which Syndergaard, and really all young pitchers, could injure themselves.

The pitch clock sounds good in theory as a faster pace of play will certainly be more enjoyable for the fans to watch.  However, the pitch clock will be counterproductive if it prevents the best and most exciting pitchers from taking the mound.  The best fix might be to instill the good habits in the minor leagues and hope they carry those good habits forward.

Is the Mets Window Closing?

Right now, the Mets are four games out of a Wild Card spot, and they are desperately hoping with Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera coming off the disabled list this week that the team goes on a run that will bring them back into the postseason.  Whether or not that works, it is fair to ask if this is the Mets last chance to win the World Series.

The foundation of this team is its starting pitching.  Matt Harvey has gone from Opening Day starter to question mark with his season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome.  There is no telling how effective he will be if he is able to come back.

Zack Wheeler was supposed to be back by the All Star Break.  Now, it appears that he will miss his second consecutive season.  While rehabbing from the surgery, Wheeler has had to have a second surgery to deal with forearm irritation caused by stitches, sensory nerve irritation, and now a flexor strain.  He had been treated by Dr. Dave Altchek, and he sought a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews.  We are continuously assured there are no structural issues, and yet, time and again there is a new excuse why he can’t pitch.  At the end of the day, it does not matter if he is unable to pitch due to his elbow or for other reasons.  Who knows when he can return or how effective he will be when returning.

There are more question marks in the rotation.  Steven Matz has yet to have a healthy season in the majors.  Bartolo Colon will be 44 years old next year meaning there is no guarantee that he pitches beyond this year.  Even if he does, there is no guarantee he will be this effective.  Logan Verrett has shown he is not capable of being a member of the starting rotation.  Sean Gilmartin‘s season ended early with shoulder problems.  The Mets aren’t going to pick up Jon Niese‘s option, and even if they did bring him back, you should probably expect more of the same from him.

The Mets other options are Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, both of whom are probably not ready to start in the majors.  Even if they are, both realistically project to be middle to back of the rotation starters.  That certainly helps, but that also a huge drop off from someone like Harvey.

As if the starting pitching wasn’t a big enough issue, there is the issue of the Mets offense.

As we saw this year, you cannot rely upon David Wright at all.  The Mets have no internal options to replace his bat in the lineup.  Worse yet, there is a lack of very good options on the free agent market choices available even if the Mets were so inclined to add a bat.  Keep in mind, they may also have to replace Lucas Duda at first base.  In 2015, Duda had a disc issue.  This year, Duda will miss almost the entire season with a stress fracture in his back.  There is a very real chance that he is a non-tender candidate.  The Mets do not have a first base option in the minors who is on track to play in the majors next year, and again, the free agent market is less than promising.  That means James Loney can once again be the Mets best option, and as we have seen, he is not a terribly good everyday option.

This isn’t even the Mets biggest problem, not by a long shot.

Cespedes can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and he will easily become the best free agent available.  The narrative coming out of last offseason was how much Cespedes wanted to be a Met, and that is why he returned.  That’s the hope why he will stay.  However, it’s more narrative than fact.

The fact is Cespedes didn’t get a fair market value offer on the free agent market.  Judging from the free agent contracts handed out, teams placed a higher value on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.  The teams you would think would be interested in Cespedes gave the money to somebody else.  The Nationals were interested, but due to budgetary constraints, they only offered Cespedes a largely backloaded deal. It is possible that after another postseason berth, and Jonathan Papelbon‘s salary off the books, the Nationals could make another run at Cespedes in the offseason.  It is also possible that the Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and/or the Angels could emerge as suitors for Cespedes.  There’s always the phantom mystery team that could join the bidding.

It is certainly plausible the Mets get outbid from Cespedes, or they simply move on from him.  Keep in mind, there were rumblings all over that the Jay Bruce trade was made, in part, as insurance for Cespedes leaving in the offseason.  If that is the case, the Mets outfield will yet again be left without a true center fielder.

The main task may first fall to Curtis Granderson, who has struggled mightily this year and should not be counted on to rebound in 2017.  The Mets could go with a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo platoon in center, but that would leave no room for Michael Conforto to play everyday.

Speaking of Conforto, there is another major issue with this Mets team.  Both Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud have regressed this year.  Certainly, Conforto’s wrist and d’Arnaud’s shoulder are factors, but the fact remains, they have regressed.  Couple that with Kevin Plawecki not progressing at all, there is a major issue.  Either the Mets young talent is not as good as anticipated, or there are impediments at the major league level that is preventing them from reaching their full potential.  In order for the Mets to remain contenders, they will need their young players to step up.

Between the aforementioned free agent market and lack of major league ready prospects, the Mets only real hopes of improving the roster is on the trade front.  The problem there is the cupboard is getting bare.  The Mets have already moved big pieces in Michael Fulmer and Dilson Herrera.  They’re not willing to move Amed Rosario, and they are really unlikely to move Dominic Smith.  The Mets could move Nimmo, but that depletes from their depth for next season, and as we have seen, the Mets need all the depth they can get.

Keep in mind that over the past two seasons, the Mets have also moved Robert Whalen, Luis Cessa, John Gant, Akeel Morris, and Casey Meisner.  They lost Matthew Bowman and Dario Alvarez without getting anything in return.  Their departures leaves a gap of mid-tier prospects the Mets could move for upgrades.

Yes, the Mets can field a very competitive baseball team next year.  As long as you have pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, you are going to have a chance to compete.  With another year of Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia, it is a seven inning game for the Mets.  It’ll become a six inning game if Hansel Robles takes the next step.  But after that?

You’re counting on Neil Walker returning, which is not a guarantee.  You’re counting on Asdrubal Cabrera developing more range at shortstop while hitting better than .255/.308/.410.  He was a .249/.307/.405 hitter from 2013 – 2015.  You’re counting on Jose Reyes to hit better than his .250/.302/.466 and be healthy all of next year.  Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 while hitting in two of the best hitter’s parks last year.  You’re counting on Wilmer Flores being able to learn to hit righties.  You’re counting on the Mets not having to rely on the Eric Campbells and Ty Kellys on the world for prolonged stretches of time over the next season.  It’s all possible, but it’s not likely.

As things look right now, the Mets better start winning some ballgames and make a run because there is no guarantee that the Mets window to contend will remain open past this season.