Noah Syndergaard
This year marks the seventh year Terry Collins has been the Mets manager. In those seven years, he has left a wake of horrible decisions and the careers of some players, namely Scott Rice and Jim Henderson.
Collins seems to be in rare form in what he had previously said was going to be his last before retirement. Already this year, he has made some poor and dangerous decisions.
Now, some like starting Jay Bruce over Michael Conforto is an organizational decision. Some decisions are designed to give players a mental and physical day of rest, and they should not be over-analyzed. However, many others, as you’ll see below, fall under the purview of Collins poor managing:
Opening Day – 4/3
Mets 6 – Braves 0
Collins sets out a lineup that makes little sense including batting his second worse OBP guy in Jose Reyes lead-off. He also made a strategical blunder hitting Bruce ahead of Lucas Duda. The issues there are more detailed here.
After Noah Syndergaard left the game with a blister, Collins turned to fifth starter Robert Gsellman for an inning in a 6-0 blowout instead of Rafael Montero, who could have benefited from a pressure free outing to build his confidence.
April 5th
Braves 3 – Mets 1
It’s not Collins’ fault the bullpen blew the lead, and he had to rip through his pen in an extra inning game. However, going to Montero over Josh Smoker was a poor decision. Smoker is just a one inning pitcher. He can’t be the last guy up. Also, he’s better than Montero, and as such, he shouldn’t pitched first.
Also, in extras, Collins turned to Ty Kelly over T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores with two outs and the winning run on second. In 2016, Kelly hit .179 off right-handed pitching to Flores’ .232 and Rivera’s .386. Another factor is with Conforto already having pinch hit, Kelly was the last OF on the bench.
April 6th
Mets 6 – Braves 2
No issues.
April 7th
Marlins 7 – Mets 2
You could argue Collins should’ve lifted Zack Wheeler before the fourth as he labored in ever inning except the first, but focusing too much on this may be picking nits at this point. What was really peculiar was it was obvious the Mets were going to need someone to soak up innings with Wheeler’s short outing. Last year, Smoker proved he is not a multiple inning reliever. Despite that being the case, Collins turned to Smoker over Montero or Hansel Robles, who are two pitchers that can go deep in relief. These are the types of decisions that exhaust bullpens.
April 8th
Marlins 8 – Mets 1
With Gsellman going five, Collins had to go deeper in the pen that he would’ve liked. He went too deep when he brought in Montero. The previous day Montero threw 35 pitches over 2.2 innings. On Wednesday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 1.2 innings. That’s 70 pitches over 4.2 innings without much rest. Montero struggled leading Collins to bring in Fernando Salas who has now appeared in four of the Mets five games himself.
April 9th
Mets 5 – Marlins 2
No issues.
April 10th
Mets 4 – Phillies 3
In the top of the seventh with the score tied at two, Collins put Conforto in the on deck circle, and the Phillies countered by having Joely Rodriguez warm-up. By Collins tipping his hand a bit, he was forced to make the choice of Conforto against the left-handed pitcher or to go with one of his right-handed bench options to pinch hit for Jacob deGrom.
Now, there is a lot of small sample size bias, but Collins options where Conforto (.129/.191/.145 vs. LHP), Flores (.252/.286/.372 vs. RHP), and Rivera (.386/.397/.600 vs. RHP). Again, there are small sample sizes, but based upon the information you would say your best bet is Rivera against Jerad Eickhoff. Instead, Collins went with Flores, who flew out to end the inning and the rally.
One other small note. Based upon the relative production of the Mets players, putting Bruce in the clean-up spot was a defensible and probably the smart move. It’s more than just production, Bruce just looks better at the plate than anyone in the lineup right now. However, according to Collins, Bruce was moved up in the lineup because he was hot. Of course, Bruce wasn’t as he was in the midst of a 2-14 streak.
It’s a problem when the manager is making a move predicated on a faulty premise. It does not matter if it was the right move or it worked out. The problem is the reasoning behind it was flawed.
April 11th
Mets 14 – Phillies 4
No issues.
April 12th
Mets 5 – Phillies 4
To be fair, the following isn’t necessarily a critique of Collins. It really is a critique of most baseball managers. With the Mets up 5-0, and Zack Wheeler loading the bases, Collins summoned Hansel Robles to the mound. While Gary and Ron Darling were harping on it being his third consecutive game, he had only pitched two innings and threw just 20 pitches in that stretch. It’s really difficult to infer Robles was tired.
Rather, the issue is why don’t you use Fernando Salas in that spot? He’s well rested, and he’s arguably your second best reliever right now. This really was the biggest out of the game. The Mets get the out here, and they go to the seventh up 5-0. From there, you can go with some of your lesser arms to close out the game.
Instead, Collins went with his best reliever that wasn’t his 7th, 8th, or 9th inning guy. This is what every manager does in this spot, so this is not unique to Collins. Another point to be made here is Collins going to Robles is justifiable as Robles is a good relief pitcher, and he has bailed the Mets out of similar situations in the past. Again, this is more of a critique of major league managers as a whole than just Collins.
April 13th
Mets 9 – Marlins 8 (16)
Well, this was a long game leaving Collins to make a lot of curious moves that helped lead to this being a 16 inning game that exhausted the Mets bullpen.
Despite the Mets facing a left-handed pitcher in Wei-Yin Chen, the Mets playing a large outfield, and the Mets rushing him back from the disabled list, Juan Lagares was not in the starting lineup.
After four innings, Collins lifted T.J. Rivera from the game for no reason at all. There were no injury issues or defensive problems. This move indirectly led to Rene Rivera playing first base in extra innings and Jacob deGrom having to make a pinch hitting appearance.
In the fifth, despite Gsellman not having anything, Collins pushed him, and the results were terrible. Collins then turned to his worst reliever in Josh Edgin to help Gsellman get out of the jam. The end result was the Marlins not only erasing a three run deficit, but also taking an 8-7 lead.
The Mets tied it and the game went 16 innings. Over the course of those innings, the bullpen was absolutely exhausted which will have far reaching implications in the short and long term.
April 14th
Marlins 3 – Mets 2
To be fair, after a 16 inning game, the Mets did not have a lot of options available in the bullpen. However, it is puzzling why Collins would go with Edgin, who has struggled most of the season, over a fully rested Sean Gilmartin who was brought up for the sole purpose of helping the bullpen. Putting Edgin in for two innings essentially conceded the game. That’s effectively what happened.
April 15th
Marlins 5 – Mets 4
After ONE decent game this season, Collins just rushed ahead and put Reyes back in the lead-off spot. In response, Reyes was 0-3 with a walk. It didn’t prevent the Mets from taking a lead, but again, it shows Collins’ poor though process.
In the eighth, the Mets had Jerry Blevins warming in bullpen when Christian Yelich walked to the plate. Now, you can argue that Salas is the eighth inning reliever until Jeurys Familia returns, and this is his spot. However, when you have Blevins warming up, you have him pitch to the left-handed batter in key situtations. Instead, Salas allowed a game tying home run followed by a go-ahead home run to Giancarlo Stanton.
April 16th
Marlins 4 – Mets 2
No issues.
April 18th
Phillies 6 – Mets 2 (10)
For most of the game, it appeared as if Collins was managing a pretty good game. The most egregious error was batting d’Arnaud behind Reyes, who can’t hit right now, and Walker, who can’t hit as a left-handed batter right now. However, you can excuse that when you consider Collins has to manage a clubhouse and respect veterans.
I’d go so far as to argue Collins deftly managed the bullpen last night. That was until the 10th inning. With a fully rested Sean Gilmartin and a Montero who seemingly gets worse with each and every outing, you simply cannot go to Montero in that spot. It is essentially waiving a white flag. And you know what, that’s exactly what Collins did.
The Phillies quickly had runners on first and second because, well, Montero was pitching. You’re in the 10th inning, and the Mets have no hit at all in the game, you absolutely have to bring your infield in. For some reason, Collins didn’t. It would up not mattering because Montero allowed a sacrifice to the deepest part of right field, but still, how do you not bring your infield in in that spot? It’s an egregious error perhaps more egregious than the Reyes one that lead to the game going into extra innings.
April 19th
Mets 5 – Phillies 4
You could argue that Reyes hitting seventh in front of d’Arnaud is a pressing issue, or his presence in the lineup might be one as well. However, you have to consider Collins has to manage personalities in that clubhouse, and he has to at least consider the impact batting Reyes eighth may have. Right now, this is an area where Collins should get some latitude.
Another thing to note, keeping Gsellman in to bunt and pitch to the first batter in the eighth was a defensible move. The bench was short with Duda and d’Arnaud coming out of the game due to injury. Also, the bullpen has been overworked. Even saving them from having to get one batter is a help right now.
Accordingly, there were no issues with last night’s game.
April 20th
Phillies 6 – Mets 4
People want to harp on Familia throwing 30 pitches in the ninth, but the bullpen has been exhausted, and the Mets really didn’t give him work in the minors. There were no issues with this game.
April 21st
Nationals 4 – Mets 3 (11)
Collins was extremely limited because of the injuries, and yet, he still managed to work a way around that excuse. In the ninth, Collins used Gsellman to pinch run for Rene Rivera. With Lagares in the game already due to the Cespedes’ injury, Collins had to go to his pitchers for pinch running and pinch hitting opportunities, so this was certainly understandable. What happened after wasn’t.
First and foremost, Collins asked T.J. Rivera to lay down a bunt. Now, analytical people would say this was the wrong move because the sacrifice bunt in that situation actually decreases the chances of your scoring. They’re right, but there’s more to that. Behind Rivera is the pitcher’s spot meaning you are going to have to have one of your players too injured to start the game enter as a pinch hitter. That player was Cabrera.
Cabrera worked out a walk. Once his foot touched second, Kevin Plawecki was already coming into the game as a pinch runner. Why Collins just didn’t put Plawecki, the more experienced base runner, in for Rivera is certainly questionable. There’s another matter to consider. Plawecki was the last player on the bench who could play the field. This meant that if the Mets didn’t score here, the pitcher’s spot in the order was going to come up sooner. This meant that d’Arnaud had to pinch hit in the bottom of the 11th.
It should be noted d’Arnaud was so injured he couldn’t start the game. It should also be noted when the game was tied in the seventh, Collins had turned to Wheeler to pinch hit. There’s not congruent thought that can come from all of this.
April 22nd
Nationals 3 – Mets 1
Collins playing Cabrera in this game was a poor decision. Cabrera was so hobbled the night before he couldn’t run the bases. In this game, you saw why. He was clearly hobbled and had even more difficulty getting around than he usually does. He was noticeably in pain, and he was playing on a slick field. There was an incident in the fifth inning where he tried to leg out an infield single, and it looked like he was going to need help to get off the field. Cabrera would come out to take his position just before the beginning of the next half inning.
April 23rd
Nationals 6 – Mets 3
Other than a clearly hobbled and limited Cabrera playing again, no issues.
April 26th
Braves 8 – Mets 2
There were two off days due to the rainout, but Collins having Salas warm up on multiple occasions was a poor decision. It is bad enough Salas is on pace for over 100 appearances. It is worse when he warms up multiple times a game. After having warmed up multiple times, Salas came in and pitched poorly again allowing two earned run in his inning of work.
April 27th
Braves 7 – Mets 5
We’ve all seen the video by now. Cespedes was hobbled and wincing while taking batting practice. If he’s a bench player or the most important player on the team, you cannot put a compromised player in the lineup. You are only asking for whatever injury is there to be exacerbated. That’s exactly what happened. On Cespedes’ fourth inning double, he pulled up to second base lame. He had to be helped off the field. Instead of him sitting out a day game after a night game, now he is sure to miss a lot of time. Sandy Alderson deserves his fair share of blame for allowing the decision to happen. Collins may deserve more after his post game meltdown where he effectively stated he won’t second guess the decision to not put Cespedes on the disabled list.
In his opinion, if you put every injured player on the disabled list, you’ll run out of people to play. Of course, it doesn’t work that way. If you put injured people on the disabled list, you can call up healthy players to play. Instead, the Mets keep injured players on the team who can’t even pinch hit. Then, when they get in a game, they get injured more meaning they’re out for a longer period of time. It is really disconcerting that this needs to be explained.
The real gem from Collins was Cespedes did all he needed to do to get into the lineup. Really? He couldn’t even take batting practice without complication. What did he need to do? Put on the correct hat and jersey combination for that game?
By the way, since Cespedes’ injury, he’s played 13 innings. Lets see how many more he plays in the first half of the season after he was helped off the field.
One good thing about baseball is momentum is your next day’s starting pitcher. Therefore, even with the Marins having dominated the Mets two days in a row, the Mets had all the momentum with Noah Syndergaard taking the mound.
Syndergaard delivered. His final line was seven innings, five hits, two runs, two earned, no walks, and nine strikeouts. The outing actually raised his ERA to 0.69.
The Marlins only threatened twice, and they both surrounded the 7-8 hitters Derek Dietrich and Miguel Rojas who had the best at-bats against Syndergaard. In the third, they scored off a Dee Gordon one out double. In the fifth, they were stranded when Gordon struck out to end the inning.
There could have been more damage in the third, but Rene Rivera nailed him trying to steal third. The inning ended with J.T. Realmuto getting caught trying to steal second.
Got heeem! #LGM pic.twitter.com/jvcqMSK7LI
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 10, 2017
The Marlins did not have a successful stolen base attempt against Syndergaard. This is the same pitcher that let the Giants run wild on him last year. He has made a conserted effort to better hold on runners, and we saw tangible effects tonight. A large part of that has been him working with Rivera. As long as nights like this continue, there is no reason to break up this tandem.
Now with the two runs scored, you would be lead to believe the Mets lost with the way the Mets have been struggling on offense. Not tonight with both Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto (playing center in place of Curtis Granderson) it was a different story.
The Mets jumped all over Edison Volquez in the first. After what is now becoming the obligatory Jose Reyes out, Asdrubal Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes hit back-to-back singles. Cabrera’s was satisfying because he laid down a bunt to beat the shift.
Cabrera then beat a poor throw home when he went home on a Jay Bruce grounder. Neil Walker singled home Cespedes, and Lucas Duda singled to load the bases. Bruce then scored on a Conforto bases loaded walk. Just like that it was 3-0.
It was 3-2 when Bruce stepped up to bat in the fifth. It was then 4-0 on a home run to deep center:
Jay Bruce showed off his center field power, a few rows deep into section 141. Not many balls go there. Only one last season. pic.twitter.com/kMpCjiFqtG
— CitiFieldHR (@CitiFieldHR) April 10, 2017
In the sixth, Conforto made it 5-2 with a home run of his own:
CONFORTO HOME RUN!! 5-2 Mets!!
Post Game on SNY pic.twitter.com/XOw4csfaWE
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 10, 2017
With the 5-2 lead, it set the first stage for Fernando Salas and Addison Reed to close out their first game since Jeurys Familia‘s suspension.
The two combined to pitch two scoreless hitless innings. Reed struck out two converting his first save of the year. With that, the Mets are back to .500, and fans can now take a collective sigh, especially with the Mets having momentum.
Jacob deGrom starts tomorrow.
Game Notes: Reyes went 0-4 putting him at 1-24 on the season. That’s a .045 batting average.
For those that bemoan a day and age where men where men and starters went all nine innings today wasn’t for you.
Robert Gsellman got the start, and he fought it all night long. The Marlins took advantage scoring runs in three consecutive innings.
In the first, Giancarlo Stanton hit a two out RBI single scoring Miguel Rojas, who had reached on a double.
In the second, Marcell Ozuna absolutely crushed one:
How to define "crushed." ?
?: https://t.co/xhLiqTLCko#LetsGoFish pic.twitter.com/zlrWm5mVyt
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) April 8, 2017
Leading off the third, Curtis Granderson misplayed a J.T. Realmuto liner into a triple. Really to scored on a Rojas sacrifice fly.
Gsellman finally had a scoreless inning in the fourth, and he appeared to have found himself. He appeared to be settling in a bit. He then struggled in the fifth.
Quickly, it was runners on the corners with one out. In what may be prove to be a building block for the season, Gsellman got out of the inning. First, Gsellman got Justin Bour to ground out weakly to Wilmer Flores freezing the runner at third. Gsellman then got out of the inning by striking out Ozuna with a beautiful change-up.
It was a professional start from Gsellman. He fought it all game long, but he kept his team in the game. His final line was five innings, six hits, three runs, three earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts. He departed down 3-0 after throwing 91 pitches.
While Gsellman kept his team in the game, it wasn’t enough as this Mets team is already showing their warts offensively. Worse yet, the Mets were facing Adam Conley, who absolutely owns the Mets:
In 2 starts at Citi Field, Conley has a 0.00 ERA, 0.615 WHIP, 10.4 K/9. In 5 games against the Mets 1-0, 1.11 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) April 8, 2017
It was more of the same from Conley tonight who carried a no-hitter into the fifth. Finally, his no-hitter and his Citi Field scoreless streak was broken up by Lucas Duda:
Watch it fly! #LGM pic.twitter.com/DvVLuywFu6
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 9, 2017
Duda has typically struggled against left-handed pitchers in his career with the exception of 2015. In that season, Duda stayed in and went the other way against lefties. The end result was Duda hitting .285/.333/.545 off left-handed pitching. So far this season, we’re seeing that Duda. He already has two extra-base hits off left-handed pitching and both hits went to left-center.
For some reason, the Marlins pulled Conley after he only threw 85 pitches. There was hope the Mets could get into the Marlins bullpen, but the Duda home run would be as close as the Mets got on the night.
Hansel Robles struggled again walking two and allowing a RBI single to Ozuna making it 4-1.
Paul Sewald made his major league debut in the eighth. The Las Vegas native fittingly wore the number 51.
Unfortunately, Sewald struggled. The Marlins greeted him with three straight singles. When he finally recorded an out, it was a safety squeeze that scored a run. The damage wasn’t worse as Jerry Blevins came on in relief and bailed him out.
Just to rub salt into the wound that was this game, Christian Yelich robbed Yoenis Cespedes of an extra base hit in the ninth. As usual, all the great catches are against the Mets.
In the ninth, Collins turned to Rafael Montero which was absurd and potentially dangerous. Yesterday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 2.2 innings. On Wednesday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 1.2 innings. That’s 70 pitches over 4.2 innings without much rest.
This is shades of Jim Henderson. Henderson was no longer the same pitcher after Collins’ reckless use if him, and Henderson couldn’t get a roster spot with a major league team this year. Collins showed he learned nothing from the event.
Naturally, it didn’t go well for Montero. Now, Montero attacked hitters, but he was a tired pitcher with nothing. It was a shame his manager put him in that position. His allowed three hits and two runs before Fernando Salas got the Mets out of the inning without further damage.
By that point, it didn’t really matter anyway. It was 8-1, which was the final score.
It is difficult picking who had the worst night, but it might have been Neil Walker who earned his first career golden sombrero. He’s now 3-20 on the season.
With the loss, the Mets snap their streak of beating the Marlins in five straight series. Instead of winning a series, the Mets now need to win two in a row just to earn a split. Fortunately, the Mets have Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom the next two nights.
Game Notes: The Phillies jumped all over Jeremy Guthrie and the Nationals scoring 12 first inning runs. Those 12 runs match the amount of runs the Mets have scored all season. Granderson lead off as Jose Reyes started the game on the bench. He was double switched into the game in the sixth. He went 0-1, and he’s 1-19 on the season. Josh Smoker rebounded after yesterday’s tough outing by pitching a scoreless sixth. Asdrubal Cabrera is dealing with a wrist injury.
With Opening Day already behind us, it is now time to look forward to see how the rest of the 2017 season will progress. Yes, this is the typically ill-fated projections post. As with anything else, this will likely be wrong by season’s end, and with any luck, I will be reminded of it come October.
AL East – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won the division last year with an MVP caliber season from Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello with a more ways than one surprising Cy Young season, and lots of young talent. The team will be hurt by the loss of David Ortiz, but they will be helped by the addition of Chris Sale, who should help boost a rotation that has David Price as a question mark. Considering the rest of the AL East downgraded as well, it it fair to surmise the downgraded Red Sox roster will stay on top.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
So, the American League Pennant winners add Edwin Encarnacion, get Michael Brantley back, and return Carlos Correa from injury? That’s the rich getting richer. This team is poised to not only win the division again, but they should be poised to return to the World Series.
AL West – Texas Rangers
This team is truly going to benefit from a full season of Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate, and they are also going to benefit from a full season from Yu Darvish. Combine that with a good bullpen, an excellent manager in Jeff Banister, and veteran leaders in Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, you have a team that will get the most of its roster and be able to win those close and tight games like they did last year.
AL Wild Card 1 – Houston Astros
The Astros will probably lose the division due to the lack of depth in their starting pitching. However, with a deep lineup that has George Springer–Alex Bregman–Jose Altuve–Carlos Correa–Carlos Beltran as their top five hitters. Combine that with Beltran’s leadership and mentoring of young players, and this is a team that will give the Rangers all they can give them.
AL Wild Card 2 – Seattle Mariners
The Mariners fell heartbreakingly short last season, and they have improved the roster with Jerry DiPoto suddenly becoming Trader Jack McKeon. To name a few, the Mariners added Jean Segura, Yovani Gallardo, and Drew Smyly to what was already a pretty good team with Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.
NL East – New York Mets
The Nationals are certainly more formidable than they were last year with them having a full year of Trea Turner and with the Adam Eaton acquisition. However, on the pitching side, they do not have the depth they typically have, and that is an issue with Stephen Strasburg‘s medical history and Max Scherzer having questionable health entering the season. Ultimately, it is the Mets depth that should carry the team over the Nationals in what promises to be a tight race.
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
They won the World Series last year, and they get Kyle Schwarber back into the lineup everyday and add Wade Davis to the bullpen. The real question is not whether they win the division, but whether they get to 100 wins again.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
Like with the National League East, the top two teams are very close, and it’s picking hairs to separate them. If you look at it Clayton Kershaw is better than Madison Bumgarner. Kenley Jansen is better than Mark Melancon. Johnny Cueto is better than another other pitcher the Dodgers have, but the Dodgers have a deeper rotation than the Giants. The Dodgers also arguably have the deeper lineup. If it goes in the reverse, no one should be surprised, but ultimately, the Dodgers appear better on paper.
NL Wild Card 1 – San Francisco Giants
When you have Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and two aces atop your rotation, it is hard to believe you are going to miss the postseason in its entirety.
NL Wild Card 2 – Washington Nationals
While the team is not deep and has some issues, there are real strengths. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are as good and as clutch a 3-4 combination as there is. The bullpen with Koda Glover, Joe Blanton, Shawn Kelley, and Blake Treinen could be dominant. Again, their only real question is health.
Postseason Series
AL Wild Card Game – Postseason Beltran and the Astros offense overcomes King Felix in his first ever postseason start.
ALDS – In what proves to be a slugfest, the better Astros lineup carries them past the Red Sox. In the other ALDS matchup, the Indians pitching, including the unleashing of Andrew Miller proves to be too much for the Rangers.
ALCS – The Indians pitching proves to be too much for a hot hitting Astros team leading them to consecutive World Series appearances.
NL Wild Card Game – Pick your reason: (1) Bumgarner; or (2) it’s technically a postseason series.
NLDS – This year, the Giants with an improved bullpen won’t be denied as Cueto and Bumgarner led the Giants past the Cubs. The Mets and the Dodgers 2015 NLDS matchup is not as intense as the Dodgers only have Kershaw to match the Mets aces leaving the Mets to be able to get past them a little easier this go-round.
NLCS – Bumgarner and Cueto are offset by Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. After that, the Mets can pick from Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Zack Wheeler, or maybe even Seth Lugo. You’d probably take any of them over the Giants next best starter Jeff Samardzija. As such, the Mets pitching outlasts the Giants pitching.
World Series – As painful as this is to say, Terry Francona just manages his way around Terry Collins and brings the Indians their first World Series title since 1948.
Power pitchers always present a conundrum. When they’re young and at their best, they dominate. However, they won’t always have that fastball. The question then becomes what next? Can the pitcher effectively adapt with a diminished fastball to be a quality starter? Can they still be dominant?
As Mets fans, we saw it first-hand with Pedro Martinez. In Boston, Pedro threw in the high 90s, and he put together legendarily great seasons. Towards the end of his Boston run and his time with the Mets, Pedro was in the low 90s forcing him to focus even more on location and movement.
In 2005, Pedro did that better than anyone going 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. He was an All Star. He was dominant. He could’ve done more if not for foot and shoulder injuries.
Judging from Matt Harvey‘s start last night, we may be watching Harvey try to emulate what Pedro did so well in 2005.
When Harvey burst on the scene in 2013, he was throwing in the high 90s and would hit 100 MPH. After his Tommy John surgery, Harvey again was living in the high 90s even if he wasn’t quite getting it to 100 MPH anymore. After Harvey’s surgery to remove a rib to alleviate the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS), his velocity hasn’t quite returned yet. During Spring Training, what velocity he did have wasn’t consistently there.
As a result, Harvey had to adapt. Adapt he did.
Last night, instead of trying to blow his four seamer past batters, Harvey relied almost exclusively on his two seamer. Instead of being in the high 90s, Harvey was hovering around 94 MPH. Instead of trying to rack up the strikeouts, he was relying on movement, location, and pitching to contact.
We saw an economical Harvey who only needing 77 pitches to get through 6.2 innings. Other than two mistakes Matt Kemp turned into long home runs, Harvey mostly yielded week contact. Impressively, Harvey seemed to get stronger as the game went on recording two of his four strikeouts in the seventh. While it wasn’t the typical Harvey start we were used to seeing, it was the same Harvey. He had the swagger on the mound, and he dominated the opposition.
And with that, we have a glimpse of the transformation Harvey is undertaking in the event his velocity never fully returns. With him, we see a pitcher who is knows how to pitch. We see a pitcher able to reinvent himself. We see a pitcher able to dominate in more ways than one.
This is extremely important. The Mets have decisions over the next few years on who to keep and who should go. Essentially, you’re gauging who is going to be Pedro and who is going to be Tim Lincecum. The ones that go the Pedro route are the ones who are worthy of contract extensions. They are going to be the pitchers who will continue to pitch at a high level, and they will help the Mets compete for the World Series year in and year out. While there may have been some doubt Harvey was that type of pitcher, last night, he started to put those concerns to bed.
When Harvey was first called up to the majors, we knew he was special. Seeing him last night, he showed just how special he could be. He could be one of the greats that has the ability to get outs no matter what he has. If that is the case, even though he is represented by Scott Boras, he might just be the first pitcher you want to sign to a contract extension.
However, before we get to that point, let’s just enjoy Harvey for what he is. He’s already gone a long way in calming our concerns about him and the rotation. We can once again dream of the Mets winning a World Series this year with a rotation headlined by him, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.
Steven Matz was dealing with elbow pain towards the end of Spring Training, and it landed him in the disabled list. He has subsequently been diagnosed with a strained flexor tendon leaving Matz to say, “I try to do all I can to stay healthy and stay on the field. Thankfully, it’s not anything more serious. So, I hope that I can come back and help the team when I’m ready but there’s nothing I can do I feel like.” (Marc Carig, Newsday).
Seth Lugo struggled in the World Baseball Classic Championship Game and when he returned to the Mets in Spring Training. The struggles were blamed on a dead arm that, like Matz, landed him in the disabled list. He was sent for an MRI yesterday. After the Mets Opening Day win Mets manager Terry Collins would say, “We lost Seth Lugo today for a period of time, so we know how important it is to keep our pitchers healthy.” (Laura Albanese, Newsday).
And just like that the vaunted Mets pitching depth of seven starters is now down to five . . . a fragile five.
The injuries have forced Zack Wheeler into the rotation ahead of schedule. With his missing two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery, the Mets wanted to limit him to around 125 innings. That’s going to be extremely difficult when he’s in the Opening Day rotation, and the Mets currently go only five starters deep.
In front of Wheeler in the rotation is Matt Harvey. In 2015, he was terrific after returning from his own Tommy John surgery. He wasn’t able to take the next step as expected in 2016 as he was dealing with the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS).
Harvey had the season ending surgery to alleviate the effects of his TOS, but so far he hasn’t rebounded as well as he did from Tommy John. Harvey has been inconsistent with his velocity and location during Spring Training. For his part, Harvey believes he turned a corner saying, “It definitely took a little while, but moving in the right direction.” (James Wagner, New York Times).
While Jacob deGrom appears back to his 2015 Cy Young caliber form, he is coming off an injury plagued season. First, it was the oblique. Then it was a nerve issue in his pitching elbow which required season ending surgery.
This leaves Noah Syndergaard and Robert Gsellman as potentially the Mets only truly healthy starters entering the season.
The issue with Gsellman is he’s a rookie with only 44.2 major league innings under his belt. For that matter, he only has 93.1 innings above Double A. It’s possible he hits a rookie wall, or he needs to have his innings limited this year.
So, to that end, the only pitcher left you feel 100% confident about this year is Syndergaard . . . and he was forced to leave his Opening Day start due to a blister. His next start has already been pushed back a day. Considering the Mets health history, it’s hard to be confident that’s all it will be.
With that, the Mets vaunted pitching rotation depth has already been tested. With one more injury or one prolonged slump, the Mets may be forced to turn to Rafael Montero which hasn’t turned too well in the past.
In the event Montero or someone else takes the mound, we all may soon realize the Mets deep seven man pitching staff just might’ve been one or two starters short.
For a Mets team that brought in no new players this offseason, it is quite fitting this team picked right up where they left off last season. For those that forgot, and how could you, Noah Syndergaard was dominant, and the Mets couldn’t get that big hit off the other team’s ace.
Today, Syndergaard was dominant. His final line was six innings, five hits, no runs, none earned, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Basically, he was just as dominant as he was in his last game only he pitched one less inning. He pitched one less inning as he had to depart with a blister on his pitching thumb. Again, the Mets are picking up where they left off last year.
Overall, Syndergaard was up to his old tricks. Fastballs at 99 MPH. Change-ups and sliders between 90 – 94 MPH. Hitters frustrated and overmatched. The real surprise is that he had to get out of two separate jams. In the fourth, he worked around a one out triple off the bat of Freddie Freeman (ball was played terribly by Jay Bruce in right) by striking out Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.
In the sixth, Syndergaard had runners at the corners with one out. Again, he struck out Kemp by keeping the ball low in the zone. He then induced a harmless fly ball off the bat of Markakis to end the inning.
Offensively, the Mets struggled against Julio Teheran. While Teheran was 7-10 last year, he is a terrific pitcher whose record really was hindered by a lack of run support. In addition to the 7-10 record, Teheran had a 3.21 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 129 ERA+, and an 8.0 K/9. Against the Mets last year, he was 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and a 5.4 K/9 in four starts. Struggling against him is certainly no red flag.
And yet, if you are a pessimistic Mets fan, you saw some troubling signs. The team did rack up six strikeouts in six innings. There were seven left on base, and the team was 0-3 with RISP. The main culprit there was Lucas Duda who twice came up with a chance to knock in a run and both times he came up short.
With Syndergaard leaving with a blister and Teheran leaving due to his pitch count, the game became a battle of the bullpens. Fortunately, the Mets, even without the suspended Jeurys Familia have a terrific bullpen. Hansel Robles added a slight hesitation in his delivery to go with the quick pitch, and he mowed down the Braves in the seventh.
The deja vu would end in the seventh. With Ian Krol allowing a lead-off hit to Rene Rivera, Wilmer Flores hit into a fielder’s choice, and he stole second off Tyler Flowers. After Jose Reyes walked, Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single up the middle, and Flores was sent home. Center fielder Ender Inciarte nailed Flores at the plate.
Or did he?
https://twitter.com/MLBReplays/status/848986918343725056
Upon replay, it shows Flores just got his foot in front of the tag from the way too far behind home plate Flowers. With that, the Mets got the lead and momentum. After Yoenis Cespedes walked to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a sacrifice fly off former Met Eric O’Flaherty to make it a 2-0 lead. He then walked Neil Walker and Jay Bruce back-to-back to force in a run to make it 3-0.
While Bruce had a misplay in right field, it was a very encouraging day for him. On the day, he had four good at-bats going 0-1 with three walks and an RBI. He looked more patient at the plate and more willing to take a walk. If he continues this for the full season, its going to be a huge year for him.
After the Bruce walk, Duda finally got a hit with runners in scoring position with a bases clearing double off of O’Flaherty.
The Dude delivers! Duda drives in 3 to extend our lead! https://t.co/AljU6eO0rH pic.twitter.com/vY4CTB9sBz
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 3, 2017
O’Flaherty’s work in the seventh inning was the most he has done to help the Mets than all he had done for them in 2015. His final line was 0.1 innings, one hit, two runs, two earned, three walks, and no strikeouts. For Mets fans, it was nice being on the other side of an O’Flaherty outing.
In the fateful seventh, the Mets sent 11 batters to the plate, and the team scored six runs on three hits, five walks, and a sacrifice fly. Basically, this Mets team featuring a number of smart veteran hitters feasted on a poor bullpen. With the six run seventh, Robles would be the winning pitcher.
Cabrera was easily the best Mets player on the day . . . well, Mets player not named Noah Syndergaard. He went 3-4 with an RBI and a stolen base. It was a refreshing change of pace from the Cabrera who seemingly went the first half of the 2016 season without a hit with RISP.
Cabreras wasn’t the only one in midseason form. Gary, Keith, and Ron were great today including them honoring the late Bill Webb. Keith Hernandez told a terrific story about how Webb used to get Keith fined $100 by filming him smoking in the first base tunnel. Keith deadpanned about how all Mets fans knew he used to smoke.
Overall, this was about as good a start to the 2017 season as you reasonably could have asked for. While you were obviously concerned about Syndergaard leaving the game with a blister, you had to be encouraged by Robert Gsellman entering the game in the ninth because Gsellman would be the guy to start in Syndergaard’s place should there be an issue serious enough to cause him to need to miss a start.
After Gsellman’s scoreless ninth, the Mets are 1-0 and in first place where we expect them to be after Game 162. The win also improves the team’s MLB best Opening Day record, which is now 35-21.
Game Notes: Mets fans complain about d’Arnaud, but Flowers is much worse. Both Cabrera and Flores were able to steal bases off of him. In his first Opening Day with the Mets since 2011, Jose Reyes was 0-3 with a run, walk, and two strikeouts. Reyes also became the first Met since Ty Wigginton to be the Mets Opening Day third baseman other than David Wright. Travis d’Arnaud entered the game in the sixth inning as a pinch runner for Rivera. This marks the first season without Bill Webb as director of the Mets games.
When the Mets take the field later today, they do so with probably the worst possible lineup that could’ve been assembled. For those that haven’t seen it yet, it’s:
- Jose Reyes 3B
- Asdrubal Cabrera SS
- Yoenis Cespedes LF
- Curtis Granderson CF
- Neil Walker 2B
- Jay Bruce RF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Rene Rivera C
- Noah Syndergaard P
There are many things to focus on here, but it would probably be belaboring the point. Reyes has a .321 OBP over the last three years. Michael Conforto should be the everyday right fielder. Basically, you can pick a part of this lineup and have room to really disagree with it.
Instead of focusing on those issues, it is probably more important to focus on the decision to bat Bruce over Duda because it is a microcosm of everything that is wrong with this lineup.
Due to a myriad of factors in the lineup, Terry Collins had little choice but to bat his two left-handed sluggers back-t0-back in the lineup. Normally, you would like to split them up for many reasons, but the one most often cited is you don’t want to give the opposition the opportunity to bring their LOOGY into the game to pitch to consecutive lefties. Effectively speaking, putting consecutive lefties in the lineup makes the opposing managers decision making that much easier.
At first glance at this lineup, it was one of the things I thought about, but then after careful consideration, I realized batting Bruce and Duda back-to-back in the lineup could be a stroke of genius. If handled properly, you are baiting the opposing manager into bringing in a LOOGY, which in turn, would permit the Mets to unleash their weapon – Wilmer Flores.
Last season, Flores wasn’t friendly to left-handed pitching hitting .340/.383/.710 against them. Basically speaking, Flores transforms to Babe Ruth when a left-handed pitcher on the mound. More than anyone not named Cespedes, this is the player on the team you want at-bat with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. By putting the lefties back-to-back in the lineup, you create a situation where you get to pick your spot to put Flores up at the optimal time. When that manager goes to the LOOGY, the Mets can then go to Flores. It’s actually quite brilliant.
Except it isn’t.
This would really only work if Duda hit in front of Bruce. Remember this is a National League team, and as such, the Mets have some constraint using bench pieces. You need to hold back a bat or two to pinch hit when the pitcher’s spot comes up. If you hit Flores for Bruce, this means you are then going to have to bring another player into the game to play right field. This means in one at-bat you have burned two players.
When you extrapolate further, it makes less sense. Between the two lefties, Bruce is the better hitter against left-handed pitching. For his career, Bruce is a .226/.292/.419 hitter against left-handed pitching to Duda’s .224/.295/.364 batting line. Assuming you’re not going to have back-to-back pinch hitters, you want to keep Bruce in against the LOOGY over Duda. Keep in mind, this is really the only situation in which you should prefer Bruce over Duda as a hitter.
In 2014 and 2015, Duda was the Mets everyday first baseman, and over that time frame, he hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI with a 133 OPS+. Now, to be fair, Duda did struggle last season with the back injury hitting just .229/.302/.412 with 7 homers and 23 RBI in 47 games. However, Duda did look better this Spring, and in reality, if you think Duda is going to be that type of hitter again, he should be on the bench. With the Mets tendering Duda a contract and not trying to move Conforto to first, it appears they believe he will return to form.
From 2014 – 2016, Bruce has hit .231/.295/.440 while averaging 26 homers and 84 RBI with a 98 OPS+. Keep in mind, Bruce did this while hitting at the band box that is the Great American Ballpark instead of Citi Field. Looking at that, wouldn’t it be fair to say Duda is the better hitter than Bruce, and therefore, should bat higher in the lineup?
And that is where we come to the problem with the lineup. At the core, the lineup shows Collins believes Bruce is a better hitter than Duda, which is just wrong. It is this lack of critical thinking that is reflected in each and every part of this Mets lineup from the lead off hitter straight down to the seventh spot in the lineup. It’s a problem.
Hopefully, Bruce goes out there and has an incredible season besting what Duda’s averages has been. Hopefully, Bruce makes Collins look like a genius. Hopefully, the only changes needed for this lineup is Travis d’Arnaud catching the rest of the staff, and David Wright triumphantly returning to the lineup.
There’s a lot to hope for there, but it is Opening Day where we all get to hope that everything will break right, and the Mets will win the World Series. With the Mets pitching, there is a legitimate reason to hope.
Year in and year out, the one thing you notice with Spring Training games is the stars rarely travel. That goes double for when there are split squad games. The bus travel during Spring Training is not ideal, and you really want to keep your best players both happy and healthy going into the season.
That is why I took a step back the other day when I saw Yoenis Cespedes traveled about an hour by bus with the Mets to Jupiter to play the Marlins in a split squad game.
Now, this wasn’t some interesting strategy that allowed Cespedes to get a look at some of the Marlins pitchers for the 2017 season. It wasn’t even an opportunity for him to help find a spot for Tim Tebow in the Mets lineup at First Data Field. No, it was for personal reasons for Cespedes that he made this rare trip:
Cespedes asked to play the road game in Jupiter because his son has a game in West Palm Beach at 4 that he wants to make.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) March 27, 2017
In many ways, Cespedes has become almost a cartoon character with the Mets. He’s a guy that is unstoppable at video game levels when he’s hot. He’s the guy that had a car show at Spring Training last year. He gave the keys to one of those expensive cars so someone could purchase the right waffle iron for him because as we know the biggest star on the Mets also makes breakfast for everyone. He bought a farm, and he bought a pig at a State Fair. He even rode horses one day at Spring Training with Noah Syndergaard. To top it all off, he randomly decided to become the Lion King last year because why not?
Through it all, Cespedes has shown himself to be one unique individual, and that is why the fans love him.
Under all of that though, Cespedes is just a dad doing all he can do to make sure he can go watch his son’s baseball game. Certainly, that is something all dads can appreciate. It is certainly a trait we can all admire. It is another reason that we can all root for Cespedes.