Michael Fulmer
The ongoing narrative in the American League Cy Young race is that there hasn’t been any dominating pitching, and therefore, Zach Britton should probably win the Cy Young. The narrative is flipped. The case for Britton is that he has been historically dominant out of the bullpen, and therefore he should receive some consideration. I did consider him, but ultimately, he wasn’t my choice for Cy Young. Here is my ballot:
1st – Corey Kluber
To say that there hasn’t been a dominant starting pitcher is to ignore the type of season Kluber had with the Cleveland Indians this year. In 32 starts, Kluber has pitched 215.0 innings. Overall, Kluber is 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 227 strikeouts, 1.056 WHIP, 149 ERA+, 3.26 FIP, and a 6.5 WAR. He also led the American League in shutouts (2).
Coincidentally, when Kluber won the Cy Young Award in 2014, he was 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.095 WHIP. These two seasons are not that appreciably different.
They’re not appreciably different because Kluber had another fantastic season. Kluber led the American League in pitcher WAR, shutouts, ERA+, FIP, adjusted pitching runs (33), and adjusting pitching wins (3.5). He was also in the Top 10 in many of the major pitching categories. Kluber was fifth in innings pitched, sixth in ERA, third in wins, eight in win-loss percentage (.667), fourth in WHIP, third in hits per nine (7.116), fourth in strikeouts per nine, fifth in innings pitched, third in strikeouts, fifth in games started, third in complete games (3), tenth in strikeout to walk ratio (3.983), fifth in homers per nine (0.921), fifth in batters faced (860), and seventh in WPA (2.7).
Overall, Kluber was the most dominant starting pitcher in the American League this season. He was every bit as dominant as he was in 2014 when he won his first Cy Young Award. Considering how he matched that level of dominance, he should be taking home his second Cy Young Award this season.
2nd – Rick Porcello
About a year ago, the baseball world was laughing at the Red Sox for not only trading away Yoenis Cespedes got obtain the 9-15 Porcello and his 4.92 ERA, but also because the Red Sox gave him a four year $82.5 million extension. This year, it was Porcello and the Red Sox who were laughing.
The 2007 first round pick seemingly fulfilled his promise in his eight major league season going 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 145 ERA+, and a 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This was clearly the best season of his career, and he was one of the main reasons the Red Sox won the AL East.
Overall, Porcello would lead the majors in both wins and strikeout-to-walk ratio. He would also fair well in the Top 10 categories for American League pitchers finishing fifth in pitching WAR (5.0), fifth in ERA, second in win-loss percentage (.846), second in WHIP, seventh in hits per nine (7.789), second in walks per nine (1.292), fourth in innings pitched (223.0), eight in strikeouts (189), fourth in games started (33), third in complete games (3), fifth in home runs per nine (0.928), fourth in batters faced (890), second in ERA+, second in FIP, second in adjusted pitching runs (32), and second in adjusted pitching wins (3.2).
Porcello wasn’t that glamour ace that went out there and struck out 10+ batters a game and had the fans rhythmically clapping for that next strikeout. Instead, he was a ground ball pitcher that was best suited for his team and his ballpark. Twenty years ago, he probably wins the Cy Young Award as he had the most wins. Now, with better information available, he finishes second.
3rd – Chris Sale
4th – Justin Verlander
At this point is where it gets more and more difficult to differentiate between players. In many ways, Sale and Verlander were neck-in-neck for the next spot on the ballot.
Sale made 32 starts pitching 226.2 innings going 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.037 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 3.46 FIP, and a 9.3 K/9. Verlander made 34 starts pitching 227.2 innings going 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA, 1.001 WHIP, 136 ERA+, 3.49 FIP, and a 10.0 K/9.
Both were in the Top 10 in multiple categories among American League pitchers. Sale finished seventh in WAR (4.9), ninth in ERA, fourth in wins, third in WHIP, fourth in hits per nine (7.544), fourth in walks per nine (1.787), sixth in strikeouts per nine, third in innings pitched, second in strikeouts (233), first in complete games (6), second in shutouts (1), third in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.178), second in batters faced (907), and third in FIP.
Verlander finished first in WAR (6.6), second in ERA, sixth in wins, first in WHIP, second in hits per nine (6.760), third in strikeouts per nine, second in innings pitched, first in strikeouts, second in games started, fifth in complete games (2), seventh in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.456), third in batters faced, sixth in ERA+, fourth in FIP, third in adjusted pitching runs (29), and third in adjusted pitching wins (3.0).
Overall, they were neck-in-neck. The deciding factors were Sale went deeper into games, and Sale issuing fewer free passes while having similar strikeout numbers.
5th – Zach Britton
This very easily could have gone to any number of pitchers, including Michael Fulmer, who should be the American League Rookie of the Year. However, a vote needed to be made for Britton who had a historically great year for a reliever.
Britton’s ERA+ this season is 827. No, that’s not a typo. It is actually that high. That’s better than anyone has ever posted in any single season in major league history. Note, unlike Tim Keefe and Pedro Martinez, Britton does not have enough innings to qualify.
Among major league relievers, he has the lowest ERA (.054) and the highest WAR (4.3), and it wasn’t particularly close in either category. On the season, Britton made 69 appearnces going 2-1 with 47 saves, a 0.836 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 827 ERA+, and a 1.94 FIP. This has now become the gold standard upon which all reliever seasons will be judged.
As you will see across baseball, the voting for the AL Rookie of the Year Award is going to be across the board. Many will want to reward a player putting together almost a full year while others want to reward a players who got called up and was insanely hot for a short stretch of time. There is room for both types of players on the ballot, and as you will see in my ballot, the player that did both, should win the Rookie of the Year Award:
1st – Michael Fulmer
Other than Corey Seager, Fulmer was the most impressive rookie in baseball this season. Consider that if not for a long rain delay, Fulmer would have pitched enough innings to qualify to have the best ERA in the American League. Overall, on the season, Fulmer was 11-7 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9. He was also one of 14 pitchers in the American League who would throw a complete game shut out.
When Fulmer was first called up by the Tigers, he was only supposed to be the rotation for a short duration due to the Shane Greene injury. Fulmer laid those plans to rest by putting together the best rookie season out of any pitcher in baseball this year.
If you are more interested in short bursts of greatness over longer periods of work where a player’s performance is permitted to ebb and flow consider that Fulmer was 3-1 with a 0.61 ERA and a 0.910 WHIP in five June starts. Consider that in a stretch from June 1st to August 14th, Fulmer made 13 starts going 6-2 with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.872 WHIP while averaging 6.2 innings per start. No rookie in the American League put up a two and a half month stretch that can compare to the run Fulmer went on over the summer.
That run was also part of the season for Fulmer falling off. As he far exceeded his innings limits for a team in the middle of the Wild Card race, his performance would noticeably suffer. However, that’s part of the reason why Fulmer is the Rookie of the Year. He was put in position to have a long run of success while also having to deal with being put in a position to fail. Ultimately, as Fulmer had the most dominant stretch of any American League rookie while also having a successful season stretching from April to September, he is the Rookie of the Year.
2nd – Nomar Mazara
Mazara was called up to the majors earlier than he was ready due to an injury to Shin-Soo Choo. Despite Mazara not being ready, he would jump right out of the gate winning the AL Rookie of the Month Award for April and May. In fact, if you took a straw poll around the All Star Break over who was the Rookie of the Year, Mazara would have won it hands down.
In that April and May stretch, Mazara hit .302/.348/.479 with three doubles, nine homers, and 24 RBI while being the Rangers everyday right fielder. Mazara played an above averaged right field too with a 5.3 UZR. Yes, Mazara would regress just as any other 21 year old rookie not quite ready for the majors would. Mazara finished the season hitting a respectable .266/.320/.419 with 13 doubles, three triples, 20 homers, and 64 RBI. Mazara would be only one of two rookies, Cheslor Cuthbert being the other, that had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.
Among rookies, Mazara had the most at-bats, runs, hits, and RBI. He is tied for first in homers. When you lead all rookies in these categories while playing well defensively, all for a first place team, you are among the top rookies in the sport, and you should be considered the top rookie among position players.
3rd – Gary Sanchez
In August and September, there has been no player, rookie or otherwise, discussed than Sanchez. After the Yankees decided to sell by trading away Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Carlos Beltran, Sanchez was among the rookies called-up by the Yankees to see which ones were ready to contribute next year to a rebuilding ball club. Sanchez came out and immediately announced he was ready to contribute.
In 51 games, Sanchez has hit .299/.372/.650 with 12 doubles, 20 homers and 42 RBI. Naturally, he leads all major leagues in homers during that stretch, and he’s tied with Mazara for the most amount of homers by a rookie. If you extrapolate those numbers over the course of a full 162 game season, Sanchez would finish the year with 37 doubles, 62 homers, and 131 RBI. After a full season like that, the Yankees would probably be best advised to just give him a monument and retire his number 57. You get numbers from a catcher like this, especially one with a cannon behind the plate, you are talking about a top five regular season in major league history.
But that’s part of the issue. Sanchez hasn’t played a full season. He’s played just two months. They’ve been two awesome months, but it’s still only about one-third of a full season. As we have seen with Fulmer and Mazara, a rookie who has a bright major league career ahead of them can have an incredible run for two months. Because Sanchez only played one-third of a season, we didn’t get the opportunity to see the league adjust to him and see if he could respond. While Sanchez’s rookie year was definitely the best, the brevity of his season coupled with how others have dominated in similar stretches that he did bumps him down to third on my ballot.
Coming into the season, the Mets were high on Dilson Herrera, and they viewed him as the second baseman of the near future. It is why the Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk, and they eschewed other long term free agent options to trade for Neil Walker who was a year away from free agency. However, the Mets made it perfectly clear they were willing to forego Herrera as the second baseman of the future if the right player came along. That is why the Mets doggedly pursued Ben Zobrist in the offseason. For the right piece or for the right price, the Mets were going to move on from Herrera to make the team better.
It is just hard to believe that player was Jay Bruce.
There is a lot to like about Bruce. He is a traditional slugger who is leading the league in RBI. He has a very affordable team option. He is insurance against Yoenis Cespedes missing an extended period of time this year, and quite possibly insurance against him leaving in free agency. He also helps with a sluggish Mets offense and with the Mets inability to hit with runners for scoring position. He is also more of the same.
This is a Mets team full of low OBP, high slugging outfielders – Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto. With the exception of Cespedes, all of the Mets current outfield options are left-handed batters. What this team doesn’t have is a center fielder. Currently, the best defensive center fielder on the team is Alejandro De Aza. While he is the team’s hottest hitter and best defender, it is hard to imagine he is going to be an everyday player while the team sits one of Granderson or Conforto everyday. In sum, Bruce is a nice offensive upgrade, but he doesn’t solve the teams problems. With that in mind, it seems like Herrera was a steep price to pay for someone that doesn’t solve what ails the team.
It’s also selling low on Herrera in what has been a tough year for him. Herrera has gone from a .327/.382/.511 hitter to a .276/.327/.462 hitter in AAA this year. He has had nagging shoulder issues, and he has fallen into some bad habits at the plate. It has been the first time the 22 year old has struggled at the minor league level. However, given the fact that he is still young for his level, and the fact that his struggles are closely associated with an injury, there is every reason to believe Herrera will rebound and become the All Star second baseman the Mets envisioned he would become. That is a steep price to pay for a duplicative player that does not solve the Mets problems.
We are just seeing it now with Michael Fulmer in Detroit. Fulmer was the big time prospect the Mets traded last year. He is the leading Rookie of the Year contender, and he is certainly in the Cy Young conversation with him going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. With each and every dominant start, it is a stark reminder how much the Mets need him this year with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery and Zack Wheeler being well behind schedule to return to the rotation. Overall, the idea behind trading Fulmer was to trade from depth to acquire a missing piece . . . a missing piece that was an imperfect fit. As we see last year, the Mets supposed depth was an allusion.
Now, the Mets did trade from depth with Herrera. Gavin Cecchini could move from shortstop to second, which now seems to be his destiny with the meteoric rise of Amed Rosario. Wilmer Flores could move over there next year. The Mets could always re-sign Neil Walker or another free agent or make another trade. Depending on David Wright‘s health, Jose Reyes could move from third to second. There are any number of factors at play, but as we see again this year, the Mets can never have enough depth as this team seems more snakebitten than any other team in the majors. With that in mind, the Mets are now less deep at second base, and they are quite possibly without their best second base option for next year.
The Mets traded away another big time prospect for another slugging corner outfielder. Hopefully, Bruce will have a similar effect on the Mets as Cespedes did last year. The Mets are going to need that type of performance to help them get back to the postseason. They are going to need that type of performance to help Mets fans forget about the player they gave away in Herrera.
Last year, the Mets parted with number of pitching prospects in a drive to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2006. Over the course of this past year, we have seen some of them actually pitching in the major leagues:
- In 16 starts for the Detroit Tigers, Michael Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. He is the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year Award, and he should receive some Cy Young Award votes at the end of the season.
- The Tigers traded Luis Cessa in the offseason to the New York Yankees. Cessa has pitched briefly out of the bullpen for the Yankees this year. In his six appearances, he has pitched 13.2 innings going 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.244 WHIP.
- The Atlanta Braves do not seem quite sure what to make of John Gant and his quirky delivery, but they seem to be convinced he’s a major league caliber pitcher. Out of the bullpen, Gant has made seven appearances with no record, a 6.17 ERA, and a 1.714 WHIP. As a starter, Gant has performed considerably better going 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP.
As we know, the Mets got Yoenis Cespedes for Fulmer and Cessa. Gant was part of a trade that netted the Mets Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. The Mets also made trades of varying success to obtain Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, and Eric O’Flaherty. Overall, the Mets gave up valuable pieces to obtain major league players that helped them win the National League Pennant.
As of right now, the Mets are in a similar situation to where they were last season. They need to assess what they need (starter, reliever, and right handed bat off the bench) and what they are willing to trade to obtain those pieces. Sooner or later, the right player is going to come along, and the Mets are going to have to decide whether to trade next year’s Fulmer for this year’s Cespedes. The issue becomes who do you and who do you not trade. Here is a look at the Mets top prospects teams are sure to be inquiring about.
Each and every team is going to inquire on Rosario, and the answer time and time again is going to be no. It’s for good reason as well. When the Mets signed him out of the Dominican Republic, his defense was seen as a given, but there were concerns about his bat. Rosario has put many of those concerns to bed by hitting .321/.372/.464 with 19 doubles, 12 triples, three homers and 56 RBI between St. Lucie and Binghamton. He was a Florida State Leauge All Star, on the Team World Roster for the Future’s Game, and he was named MLB.com‘s 18th best prospect. Unless you are talking a Mike Trout trade, Rosario is off the table.
This is where things start to get a little interesting as Smith has really taken off since Rosario joined him in AA hitting .336/.398/.626 with five doubles, one triples, eight homers and 27 RBI. Smith is starting to show the power that could take him from a very good prospect to an elite prospect with the ranks of Rosario. Already, Smith is a plus defender at first base, and he has the ability to drive the ball gap-to-gap. If you trade him, you could be trading away the next John Olerud or worse if his power game continues to develop. If you keep him, you risk him becoming the next James Loney. Yes, Loney has been a quality major league first baseman, but Loney should never be what stands between you and getting an All Star or difference maker at the trade deadline that could put the team over the top.
It seems that since Herrera came to the Mets in the Marlon Byrd trade, he was touted as the Mets second baseman of the future. He was someone who could handle the position well defensively while being a real force at the plate. He showed that he has unique power for the position. Due to injuries in 2014, the Mets brought him up from AA to play in the majors. Last year, he was seen as an offensive spark when a number of players went down due to injury. This year he hasn’t been a consideration at all. He has struggled in AAA hitting .277/.331/.471 in the Pacific Coast League which is a hitter’s league. Part of that might be teams figuring him out. Part of that may be him dealing with a shoulder injury sapping him of some of his offensive ability and having him fall into bad habits at the plate. He is less patient at the plate, and he is lunging for balls he wouldn’t last year. If you move him, you are moving the guy that could be a multiple time All Star. If you don’t, you just might be hanging onto a guy that may never figure it out.
Cecchini is in a tough position in the Mets organization. He isn’t seen as good a prospect at short as Rosario, and he has had some trouble handling the position at Cashman Field, who has an infield that is not kind to infielders. He’s a good hitter hitting .315/.392/.441 with 18 doubles, two triples, five homers, and 40 RBI, and he reminds you of a right-handed Daniel Murphy at the plate. However, he is not considered as good of an offensive prospect as an Herrera. Furthermore, his bat does not have the power profile that would play at third or the outfield. By many accounts, Cecchini will play in the majors one day. What you don’t know is what he will be. Will he be the next Murphy at the plate with similar defensive versatility? With that in mind, will he develop power as he gets older and fills out like Murphy did? Will he turn into the next Matt Reynolds – a major league utility player? Again, you don’t want to lose the next Murphy for a rental, but you also don’t want to miss out on someone because you wnated to keep another Reynolds or Joe McEwing type of player.
Most Mets fans would jump at the opportunity to trade him. He hasn’t hit at all in the majors despite given extended looks on two different occassions. However, Plawecki has been a good defensive catcher and pitch framer. He was also once considered a prospect who could push Travis d’Arnaud for playing time. Keep in mind that since his demotion, Plawecki is hitting .291/.347/.512 with four doubles, five homers, and 21 RBI in 27 games. These numbers aren’t exciting, especially in the Pacific Coast League, but it shows he is starting to become more patient at the plate and more selective swinging at pitches. Also keep in mind that catcher is a position that players tend to develop later in their careers than other positions. Plawecki could still very well be the Mets catcher of the future, or he could be a solid backup. He may not be the type of player who should hold up a deal, but he definitively is a player you want to protect if at all possible.
Ultimately, it seems like one of the aforementioned players are going to have to be traded if the Mets want to acquire an impact player like Jonathan Lucroy. However, they need to be very careful about which one.
In an ideal world, Rosario and Smith are non-starters. These are two players who are excelling in AA at a young age, and they appear primed to contribute to the Mets sooner than expected. You do not ever want to give up a Rosario or a Smith. These players should prove to be fixtures in the Mets lineup for ten plus years. Still, you’re going to have to give up someone if you are going to want to add that last piece who could put the Mets over the top in 2016.
That piece appears to be between Herrera and Cecchini. The Mets may very well have a preference between these two players, and coming into this season, it seemed like Herrera. However, that does not mean they still feel the same way, nor does it mean that other teams think similarly. Regardless of how the Mets feel, a team may force their hand to trade one or the other to hopefully trade for this year’s version of Yoenis Cespedes. In the end, it seems like the Mets will be giving up a Herrera or a Cecchini like they did with Fulmer last year if they want to make a move.
The hope is that the player has the impact Cespedes did last year and that the Mets take the next step and win the 2016 World Series.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Minors
According to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo, the Mets have inquired about Jon Niese, and the team may be interested in Mark Melancon.
Niese makes a lot of sense for the Mets. With the Mets not knowing when and if Zack Wheeler can come back this year and Steven Matz dealing with bone spurs in his elbow, it would not hurt for them to have some insurance in their starting rotation even if it is Niese, who was dreadful as a starting pitcher this year. The hope is that Niese could get back to what he was with the Mets when he is once again working with Dan Warthen. It is also possible that Niese could pitch out of the bullpen for the Mets as he did so well for them last year.
Niese was demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates, and he has made four appearance so far pitching well. He is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.080 WHIP.
On the other hand, it is hard to believe the Mets could also acquire the pending free agent Melancon from the Pirates even if it was a package deal to take on both Niese and Melancon. Melancon is having another outstanding year as the Pirates closer going 1-1 with 30 saves, a 1.51 ERA, and a 0.960 WHIP in 45 appearance. Either this is a ploy to drive up the price of Melancon as the Nationals are interested in him, or it’s the Mets trying to get him on the cheap by having the Pirates try to package him with Niese. It is doubtful the Mets would give up the prospects necessary to land him to have him set up for Jeurys Familia.
The Mets are apparently more interested in a bat now due to Juan Lagares‘ injury. In other news, the Mets were interested in Steve Pearce, but they have found the Rays asking price to be too high. The Mets have also inquired on Jay Bruce as insurance for Yoenis Cespedes for both this year and the next. It should be noted that the Reds turned down a Bruce for Wheeler deal last year that resulted in the Mets acquiring Cespedes for Michael Fulmer last year at the trading deadline.
The Reds are also dangling Ross Ohlendorf, Blake Wood, and Tony Cingrani in the hopes of making a deal to alleviate some payroll for next year. There are no reports that the Reds have discussed any of these relievers with the Mets in a deal that could or could not involve Jay Bruce. However, we do know that the Reds have been scouting Kevin Plawecki for some reason or another.
If the Mets were able to move Plawecki for a Cingrani or a Wood, they have to consider it as they are both having good years out of the pen. Wood has made 44 appearances going 5-1 with one save, a 3.42 ERA, a 1.500 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. Cingrani has made 46 appearances going 4-2 with 12 saves, a 3.20 ERA, a 1.267 WHIP, and a 6.4 K/9. Both relievers are controllable past this year, and it appears as if Plawecki may never fulfill his offensive potential with the Mets. It is worth a shot.
Steven Matz has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, and the Mets talked him out if having inseason surgery to remove them. Noah Syndergaard also has bone spurs in his pitching elbow, but it appears like it’s nowhere near as serious as Matz’s. Zack Wheeler has had a number of setbacks in his Tommy John rehab, and the best case scenario has him returning to the Mets mid to late August. Now, worst of all, Matt Harvey may have thoracic outlet syndrome.
Anyone one of these pitchers may miss an extended period of time, and the Mets replacements are less than inspiring.
First up as always is spot starter Logan Verrett who has a 5.32 ERA in his five starts this year. Sean Gilmartin has a 7.00 ERA in his limited appearances with the Mets this year. Seth Lugo had an electrifying one inning appearance before bring sent back down to AAA where he has a 6.55 ERA. Rafael Montero hasn’t been much better with his 6.31 AAA ERA and his 11.57 major league ERA. Finally, there’s 23 year old Gabriel Ynoa who may not be ready for the majors.
For a team that is built on pitching, these are not viable options. These pitchers are not carrying these Mets back to the World Series like the pitching did in 2015.
No, the Mets need a pitcher like Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has made 13 starts this year going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.096 WHIP. He’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH Warthen slider. If he was in the Mets rotation right now, he would arguably be the best pitcher in their rotation. At the very least, he’s top three. There’s one problem.
Fulmer’s a Tiger. Fulmer was one of 12 pitchers the Mets have traded away since the 2015 offseason. Make no mistake. Fulmer was the best of the lot.
Many have justified his departure as he was traded away to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes would go off in August and September with an offensive display Mets fans haven’t seen since Mike Piazza was leading the Mets to back-to-back postseason appearances. The Mets would fall just short of the ultimate goal as they lost the World Series in five games.
Arguably, the Mets needed Cespedes to reach that point. However, in acquiring him, the Mets gave up Fulmer’s entire career. They gave up the very player they may need this year just to get back to the World Series. The Mets may have sacrificed their chances in 2016 and beyond for the run they made last year.
The reason is because pitching is fragile. No matter how good you think you have it there’s a bone spur, a torn collateral ligament, or a shoulder condition that can take an ace pitcher away. It’s why an organization needs as much high end pitching depth as it can get their hands on. Yesterday’s surplus becomes today’s necessity.
Fulmer was seen as surplus last year, and he was moved for Cespedes. With Harvey’s, Wheeler’s, and Matz’s medical issues, he’s now a necessity that is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
For the second straight year, the Mets entered the season with questionable depth. The result of the questionable depth last year was the Mets were forced to raid their minor league pitching depth to build a bench and a bullpen. Overall, the Mets traded away Robert Whalen, John Gant, Casey Meisner, Michael Fulmer, Luis Cessa, Dawrin Frias, Miller Diaz, and Matt Koch. The end result was a National League Pennant and only one player under contract beyond 2015.
The Mets had the whole offseason to make sure that didn’t happen again. They didn’t. The team decided not to re-sign Kelly Johnson, and they waived Ruben Tejada. The end result was the Mets started the year with Eric Campbell on the 25 man roster. Keep in mind, the 2015 Mets which supposedly had less depth had Campbell in the minor league system.
Unfortunately, Campbell did not reward the faith the Mets placed in him. Campbell hit .159/.270/.222. The Mets were forced to move on from him. Next up was Ty Kelly, who the Mets signed to a minor league deal over the winter, and Kelly hit .111/.200/.111. Another option was Matt Reynolds, who is still up with the team, who is currently hitting .167/.231/.167. By the way, the Mets have now made it readily apparent they are not going to give T.J. Rivera a shot. Long story short there are kiddie pools with more depth than what the 2016 Mets had this season. Accordingly, the Mets were in a position where they were forced to make a move to improve their depth.
Today, the Mets traded away Akeel Morris for Kelly Johnson. This is the same Kelly Johnson the Mets thought Eric Campbell was better than in the offseason. This is the same Kelly Johnson who is currently hitting .215/.273/.289 this year.
Again, the Mets could have signed him in the offseason and not forfeited a prospect in return. Either the Mets thought Campbell was a better player and were wrong, or they made a money decision. There is roughly a $1.5 million difference between Campbell’s and Johnson’s salaries, and the Mets did release Tejada before the season in an effort to save money. Keep in mind, the Mets not only obtained Campbell in the deal, but as per Jon Heyman, the Mets also received some money in the deal as well. Because of the Mets penny wise pound foolish decisions, the Mets once again had to dip into their minor league system to address their poor depth.
This time the cost was Akeel Morris. Last year, Morris was terrific in his 23 appearance in AA. He went 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. This year, for the first time in his major league career, he is struggling. In his 22 appearances, he is 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.382 WHIP. Lost in those stats is Morris’ stuff. He can get his fastball up to 95, and he has a good changeup. With his ability to strike people out, he could have been a late inning reliever. With the development of another pitch, like the Warthen slider, he would be. If he does reach his potential, it will be with another organization as the Mets decided they desperately needed someone who is hitting worse than Kevin Plawecki this year.
Regardless of his struggles, Johnson is an upgrade over what the Mets have been playing lately. Johnson may also benefit from returning to a team where he played well last year. If Johnson does play well, it’ll be a reminder the Mets should not have let him sign elsewhere in the offseason. It will be a reminder that the mistake the Mets made a mistake in thinking Campbell was the best choice for the bench. Ultimately, the cost of that mistake is the career of Akeel Morris.
Since Michael Fulmer‘s call-up on April 29th, he is an astounding 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.175 WHIP. In his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 0.32 ERA and a 0.635 WHIP. These are great numbers from any rookie. It’s all the more incredible when you consider he’s only made three starts in AAA. The 23 year old is showing everyone why he was considered a potential ace, and why the Tigers wanted him in the first place.
It’s also a reminder that the Mets used their biggest trade chip last year.
While the Mets farm system is still stocked with pitching talent, there aren’t any pitchers with the upside of Fulmer, at least not any that are as close to the major leagues as Fulmer was last year. Now, the Mets do boast some terrific position player prospects like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. However, neither one of those players are close to ready to being major leaguers. While these players are highly thought of around baseball, they are certainly not going to fetch a player of Yoenis Cespedes‘ caliber at the trading deadline. That’s a huge problem for the Mets.
Right now, the Mets are without Lucas Duda, David Wright, and Travis d’Arnaud due to severe injuries. The Mets don’t know the long-term status of Juan Lagares and the torn ligament in his left thumb. Hopefully, d’Arnaud, who has started rehab games, can catch with the torn labrum. Realistically, all the Mets can do with each of these players is put a timetable on when they think they could return not fully knowing when these players can return. As the Mets are waiting to figure this out, they are playing a group of players that are having problems just to reach the Mendoza Line. The big solution they have so far was to acquire James Loney. Loney has been good so far, but he is still the player who was released by the Tampa Rays and was playing for the San Diego Padres’ AAA affiliate. In short, the Mets are going to have to go out there on the trade market and obtain some players that can help them at catcher, first, and third.
The Mets have the pieces to make those deals. However, they may not have the pieces to make that blockbuster deal that everyone wants. The Mets don’t have the one big trade piece that could solve the issue at one or more positions. The reason why is the Mets went all-in on the 2015 season. The result was the Mets making it to the World Series. At the end of the day, the 2016 Mets may be hamstrung by what happened in 2015.
With that said, Sandy Alderson is a very good GM. He has swung some good trades while he has been the manager of the Mets. The deals he made with the Braves for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe as well as the deal he made with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Addison Reed were absolute coups. Alderson was able to acquire quality major league pieces without giving up much of anything. The Mets are going to need the same type of performance this trading deadline, especially since he doesn’t have the same assets he had last year to get the job done. It’s not going to be easy. It’s going to require some creativity. However, if anyone can do it, it’s Sandy Alderson.
Despite the spinal stenosis, David Wright was playing well in 2016. He was hitting .226/.350/.438 with seven homeruns and 14 RBI. He had hit homeruns in three straight games before it was discovered he had a herniated disc in his neck. It was a cruel setback for a player who has worked so hard to get back to this point. It leaves everyone questioning if this is the straw that will break the camel’s back. If it is, or if Wright needs another lengthy stint on the disabled list, the Mets are going to have to find a long term solution to third base.
Internal Options
Wilmer Flores. Going into this season, the Mets tabbed Flores to be the main backup at four infield positions. With Wright needing days off here and there due to the spinal stenosis, it was presumed Flores would play a lot of third base. At the outset, Flores appears to be the player who will get the first crack at the position. However, if he continues hitting .167/.231/.267, the Mets are going to be forced to turn in another direction.
T.J. Rivera. Eric Campbell already had his shot, and he hit .159/.270/.222 leading him to be designated for assignment. Matt Reynolds had a brief call-up and he hit .100/.182/.100 in limited duty. The revolving door has now brought us to Ty Kelly, who is hitting .167/.231/.167 in limited duty. While this triumvirate has been given the opportunities and failed to hit, Rivera stays in AAA hitting .364/.399/.535. Sooner or later, he’s going to get a shot to play in the majors with the way he has been playing.
Gavin Cecchini. The former Mets 2012 first round pick is currently hitting .308/.390/.400 in his first season in AAA. The issue is in his minor league career, Cecchini has only played SS. If he gets called up, the Mets would have to choose between playing him at a position he has never played before or making him the SS while Asdrubal Cabrera moves to third, where he has only played one inning in his major league career.
Dilson Herrera. The Mets could elect to call-up Herrera to play second while sliding their second basemen to third like they have the past few seasons. The issue here is Herrera is not raking in AAA the way he usually does, and Neil Walker hasn’t played third base regularly in his big league career, and he hasn’t played there in six years.
External Options
If you are going to make a move at this point, you are really only going to be able to obtain a player from a team that is completely out of the pennant race, or a player that has been designated for assignment. With the current two Wild Card format, a safe line of demarcation is any team 10 games or more out of first place is out of contention. Looking over the standings, that would mean the Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds (who have nothing of value), and the San Diego Padres. Of course, due consideration should be given to the Oakland Athletics, who are always ready, willing, and able to make a trade.
Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is one of the many reasons the Twins are having a down year as he is hitting .246/.273/.369. For his career, he’s a .245/.307/.417 hitter. As such, he’s not going to resolve any of the Mets offensive problems. Also, as per UZR and DRS, he has only been an adequate defensive third baseman meaning he doesn’t have the superior defense to carry his bat.
Eduardo Nunez. The former Yankee is having a nice year for the Twins hitting .340/.367/.507 in 42 games. This year he has mostly played third and shortstop. In the event Wright does come back, Nunez can be a valuable utility player. The main issue with the 29 year old Nunez is that he will not be cheap as he still has a couple of cost controlled years before he becomes a free agent in 2018.
Kelly Johnson. Johnson was a valuable bench piece for the Mets last year hitting .250/.304/.414. The benefits are you know he can play in New York, and he should not be expensive. The downside is he’s hitting .218/.279/.307 this year.
Gordon Beckam. While Beckham has never quite lived up to the hype, he is having a good year this year as a utility player for the Braves playing second, third, and short. The career .244/.307/.374 hitter is hitting .293/.393/.446 this year for the Braves. Maybe it’s the small sample size of 30 games, maybe it’s the change to the National League, but Beckham is a better offensive player this year.
Aaron Hill. Hill is having a tremendous year as the Brewers’ third baseman this year hitting .275/.351/436. He’s also capable of played second in his career. The main sticking point with Hill is his salary. He is earning $12 million this year with the Arizona Diamondbacks paying $6.5 million of that. If the Mets were to obtain Hill, they would have to take on the prorated portion of the $5.5 million the Brewers are paying him or part with additional prospects to get the Brewers to eat some of that salary.
Brett Wallace. Wallace is a left-hand hitting third baseman. He has bounced around as he has never reached his full potential at the plate. He has also been a below average fielder wherever he has played, including third base. He seems to have found a home as a Padre these past two seasons. This year he is hitting .219/.379/.381. The issue with him is he’s still a cost-controlled player just entering his arbitration years.
Yangervis Solarte. Former Met Roger Cedeno‘s nephew, Solarte, is hitting .300/.397/.600 this year while playing mostly third base. He is a versatile player with a good bat. He is only making $525,000 this year, and he’s not arbitration eligible until 2017. If you want him, you’re going to have to pry him away from the Padres. Remember, this is the same Padres front office that rejected Michael Fulmer for Justin Upton. Solarte would be a great fit for the Mets, but it is unlikely the Mets are going to be willing to pay the price of what it’ll take to acquire him.
Ruben Tejada. Simply put, Tejada is a major league caliber player that is better suited to playing shortstop. He was a career .255/.320/.323 hitter on the Mets. He played poorly with the Cardinals hitting .176/.225/.235 before being released. He’s better suited for the bench than he is as the third base option. Even if he’s not the third base solution the Mets should claim him and put him on the bench.
Jed Lowrie. Lowrie is in the midst of a good season hitting .309/.351/.360 for the Athletics. He is capable of playing second, third, or shortstop. However, he has little power, and he is in the middle of a relatively large contract that pays him $7.5 million this year and $6 million next year with a team option/buyout in 2018.
Danny Valencia. Valencia is having a terrific year this year hitting .333/.370/.558 while playing third base for the the Athletics. He has an extremely reasonable $3.15 million salary this year. However, that is part of the problem. He has a reasonable salary this year, and he is under team control until 2018. Given the way Billy Beane does business, he will be extremely expensive.
Overall, that is the problem. If Wright is really going to miss a significant amount of time for the second straight season, the Mets are going to need a real long term solution. If the Mets enter the trade market and pay high prices for good, quality players like Solarte and Valencia. For the most part, you are looking to trade with a Brewers franchise you cancelling a trade with last year, or a Padres or Athletics team that really drives a hard bargain. That leaves the Mets in a very difficult situtation. Therefore, for the time being, the most prudent course might be to see if Flores can handle the position defensively and offensively. If he doesn’t the Mets will need to make a big trade just like they did last year. If that time should come, hopefully, they will have the pieces necessary to make that happen.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
All you need to know about tonight’s game is the Mets scored a franchise record 12 runs in the third inning. Here’s how it happened:
A 12-run inning? That’s the highest-scoring frame in @Mets history. https://t.co/mLUBSOeNVe pic.twitter.com/4eUVXnWN2U
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) April 30, 2016
Watch @ynscspds cap off our 12-run inning with a grand slam! #Metshttps://t.co/0Z4NwYW4Gb
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 30, 2016
As Ron Darling would later say, “You got the feeling that the inning might not ever end.” This inning was a far cry from the 2015 Mets June/July offense. The Mets sent 15 batters to the plate. The only Mets batter that didn’t reach base or score at least once was pitcher Steven Matz. With his grand slam and six RBI, Yoenis Cespedes broke Butch Huskey‘s team record of five RBI in one inning. Who knew?
The inning was so impressive Jake Peavy‘s ERA went from 6.86 to 8.61. The Mets scored half their runs off Peavy and the other half off of sacrificial lamb Mike Broadway. His ERA went from 3.86 to 11.81.
Matz lasted six innings allowing seven hits, zero earned, three walks, and four strikeouts. It wasn’t a dominating performance. He only had one 1-2-3 inning. With that said, he more than got the job done. The only run scored by the Giants was a leadoff homerun on the seventh inning by Angel Pagan off of Jerry Blevins. It was a good decision by Terry Collins to give Blevins a full inning of work in a blowout. Blevins has been the least used member of the bullpen.
As if they were irritated by Pagan’s homer, the Mets rallied again in the seventh to score a run. The 13th run of the game was scored on a Juan Lagares RBI single. Logan Verrett pitched a scoreless eighth, and Antonio Bastardo pitched a scoreless ninth to close out the 13-1 victory. I’m assuming Verrett, the long man in the pen, didn’t pitch two innings because Terry Collins’ Magic 8 Ball told him to do it.
This was the Mets first game this season against a National League team that was expected to be a contender for not only the postseason, but also the World Series.
Game Notes: Kevin Plawecki threw out Brandon Belt in the second. He’s now 5-9 in throwing out would be basestealers. Since taking over for the injured Travis d’Arnaud, he’s gone 2-13. David Wright, who for some reason wasn’t pulled, continued his throwing issues with a throwing error in the eighth. Eric Campbell entered the game to play LF in the eighth. Michael Fulmer made his debut for the Tigers against the Twins. He went five innings allowing two earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.