Matt Harvey

The Stolen Bases Are Not Travis d’Arnaud’s Fault

The runner takes off from first, and Travis d’Arnaud pops out of the chute unleashing a throw to second base.  The throw isn’t even close as the runner swipes the bag easily.  Mets fans groan as it is yet another time d’Arnaud has failed to throw out the runner.  It happens all too often, and seemingly most of d’Arnaud’s throws to second are either off line or spiked in front of the base not giving Neil Walker or Asdrubal Cabrera a chance to put down the tag in time.  It should come as no surprise that d’Arnaud has only thrown out 22.6% of would be base stealers.  It should also come as no surprise that d’Arnaud has allowed the seventh most stolen bases in the majors despite a stint on the disabled list.

However, what may come as a surprise is that d’Arnaud is not really to blame at all for these woeful statistics.  It’s really the starting pitcher.  Here is a breakdown on how successful base stealers have been when each of the Mets starting pitchers are on the mound:

Pitcher SB CS Success Rate
Noah Syndergaard 40 4 90.91%
Bartolo Colon 7 6 53.85%
Jacob deGrom 3 3 50.00%
Steven Matz 20 6 76.92%
Matt Harvey 7 3 70.00%
Logan Verrett 3 5 37.50%

As you can see, teams run wild when Syndergaard and Matz are on the mound.  However, when Colon and deGrom are on the mound, teams tend to stay put, and when they do run, they are much less successful when attempting a stolen base.

These results are all the more surprising when you consider that Rene Rivera, who is generally regarded as a much better defensive catcher, has effectively become Syndergaard’s personal catcher.  Here is a breakdown of how successful Mets catchers are trying to throw out base stealers when Syndergaard is on the mound:

Catcher SB CS Success Rate
Travis d’Arnaud 12 1 92.31%
Kevin Plawecki 6 1 85.71%
Rene Rivera 22 2 91.67%

In reality, it doesn’t really matter who is back there, teams are going to run wild when Syndergaard is on the mound.  The catcher is always going to look bad trying to throw out base stealers when Syndergaard is on the mound.  We saw it again last night as the Diamondbacks were a perfect 4/4 in stolen base attempts.   It’s a big reason why Rivera is only throwing out 25.6% of base stealers this season.

It should also be noted that with veteran pitchers who actually hold on baserunners, d’Arnaud throws out more baserunners.  With Colon pitching, d’Arnaud throws out 37.5% of base stealers, and with deGrom on the mound, he has thrown out one of the three players who have attempted a stolen base with him behind the plate.

This isn’t to say d’Arnaud doesn’t have room to improve.  He can certainly work on winding up less on his throws, and he can work on making better throws to second.  However, at the end of the day, the base runners are running on the pitcher and not d’Arnaud’s arm.

Steven Matz’s Near No-Hitter Throws Padres for a Curve 

Regardless of the results what Steven Matz has been doing this season has been admirable. Matz knows he’s going to need surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow, and yet he still goes out there and pitches because his team needs him. 

With that said the results haven’t been pretty.  From June 7th until August 9th, Matz has gone 1-7 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.435 WHIP. That is a precipitous drop from the guy who started the year 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.030 WHIP. The main reason for the dip is he’s getting hit much harder. He’s gone from an 18% line drive rate with batters hitting .225/.272/.294 with four homers to a 28% line drive rate with batters hitting .297/.346/.475 with 10 homers. 

During his slump or whatever you want to call it, Matz has been without his main breaking pitch – the fabled Warthen slider. In the beginning of the year, he threw it 15% of the time. Beginning June 7th, he was only throwing it 8% of the time. 

In place of the change, Matz began throwing more changeups going from throwing it 9% of the time to throwing it 14% of the time. It’s not a wise move as opposing batters hit .340 against the pitch while slugging .630. He’s fooling no one with the changeup and the opposition has been teeing off on the pitch. 

Sunday, Matz effectively scrapped both his changeup and his slider focusing on his fastball and curveball. The result was a near no-hitter. 

Over 7.1 dazzling innings, Matz only allowed the one hit allowing no runs and two walks with eight strikeouts. It was his best start since May. It was a return to the Steven Matz everyone once believed would emerge to join Jacob deGromMatt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard as one of four aces atop the Mets staff. 

Matz did it, in part, because he threw a lot more curveballs. He threw 29% curves on Sunday after throwing it 14% of the time ro start the year. It was the right move as it’s arguably his second best pitch (after his abandoned slider). Matz limits batters to a .235 batting average with his curveball, which is the second lowest batting average allowed against any one of his pitches.

With the fastball and curveball working, the only player who would get a hit off of Matz would be Alex Rios‘ former teammate Alexei Ramirez.  Like Harvey, Matz wouldn’t get the no-hitter. Unlike Harvey, his teammates would score runs did him a get the win. 

Wilmer Flores and Neil Walker hit solo homers in the first two innings respectively off Padres left-hander Clayton Richard giving Matz and the Mets a 2-0 lead. 
In the eighth, the Mets actually scored some insurance runs. Jose Reyes led off the inning with a single. He’d steal second and move to third when Padres catcher Derek Norris threw it into center. Reyes then scored on a Jose Dominguez wild pitch.  All of this happened during Ty Kelly‘s at bat.  It was vintage Reyes. 

The rally continued after the Reyes one man show, and it culminated in a T.J. Rivera two out two RBI double scoring Kelly and Jay Bruce. It was the first extra base hit and RBI in Kelly’s young career. It made the score 5-0. 

The final score would be 5-1 after Gabriel Ynoa allowed a run in the ninth. On the bright side, the Mets are 2-0 in games Ynoa pitched. Speaking of which, the Mets have finally won two games in a row. 

Overall, the story was Matz. He had a magical afternoon, and he made an adjustment to allow him to pitch more effectively. 

Pennant Race: Thr Marlins beat the White Sox 5-4. The Nationals beat the Braves 9-1. Three Cardinals beat the Cubs 6-4.  The Pirates bested the Dodgers 11-4. 

Don’t Blame the Mets Injuries

For the second straight year, it appears that the Mets have been snakebitten.  They have lost Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright to season ending injuries.  It would be easy to blame injuries like these as well as the other injuries the Mets have had for the team underachieving this season.  There’s just one problem with that – the Mets have been amongst the healthiest teams in all of baseball.

According to Spotrac, the Mets rank 15th in the majors and 8th in the National League with the team having placed 13 players on the disabled list.  With those 13 players on the disabled list, the Mets have missed 549 player days, which ranks 23rd in the majors and 12th in the National League.

Now, there are some fair criticisms in pointing just to the disabled list figures.  First, as we have seen with the Mets handling of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets wait too long before putting a player on the disabled list.  Second, this list does not account for players like Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard who are pitching despite having bone spurs in their elbows which will have to be surgically removed in the offseason.  However, this point-of-view is a bit myopic when considering the injuries the Mets main competition for the two Wild Card spots have endured.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The 63-49 Dodgers currently have the top Wild Card spot by four games.  They have also put a major league leading 25 players on the disabled list while losing a major league leading 1,400 player days.

Brett Anderson was gone for the season before he threw a pitch, Hyun-Jin Ryu only made one start, and Alex Wood lasted just 10 starts.  That’s 3/5 of the Dodgers Opening Day rotation up in smoke.  On top of that, the Dodgers have lost important bullpen pieces in Yimi Garcia and Chin-hui Tsao.

The Dodgers have also been decimated in the outfield.  Valuable fourth outfielder and bench bat Andre Ethier was also gone before the season started.  He was needed more than usual considering the Dodgers finally released Carl Crawford, had to deal with Yasiel Puig not producing, and recently losing the pleasantly surprising Trayce Thompson in the outfield.

All of this pales in comparison to the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw to the disabled list.  Kershaw was once again dominating, was the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, and quite possibly an MVP candidate. With his back injury, no one can be quite sure when he will return.  There is no more damaging blow to any team in all of baseball than the Dodgers losing Kershaw.

And yet, the Dodgers keep winning games, and that is why they find themselves the current Wild Card leader.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have put one fewer player on the disabled list than the Mets, but they have also lost 174 more player days to the disabled list.  Like the Dodgers, they are also ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card Standings.

The biggest injury the Cardinals have had to deal with is their starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta.  Offseason surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb has limited him to 36 games this season.  When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. Initially, the Cardinals opted to go with Mets cast-off Ruben Tejada as Peralta’s short term replacment, but he was inffective and wounded up on the disabled list himself.  His replacement, Aledmys Diaz was having a terrific rookie season which led to him being named an All Start.  However, he is now on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in this thumb.

The Cardinals have also had a number of key position player injuries.  During the season, the Cardinals have placed Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham on the disabled list at points during the season.  This has left the team looking to find solutions at first base and center field during the season.

The Cardinals pitching staff has also been hit hard.  Lance Lynn went from a member of the rotation to losing the entire 2016 season to Tommy John surgery.  Closer Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness all year, and he has finally wound up on the disabled list.  One of his key set-up men, Jordan Walden, has yet to throw a pitch all season due to a shoulder strain and a lat injury.  The team also had to deal with losing key relievers from last season, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, for a stretch of time.  

Recently, they had Michael Wacha and Matt Holliday go down with what could be season ending injuries. 

Despite these injuries, the Cardinals are 2.5 games up on the Mets this season in the Wild Card standings.

National League East

It is interesting to note that the two teams the Mets are chasing in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals, are two of the healthiest teams in all of baseball.

For the Marlins part, it seems to be a combination of good luck and youth.  Seven of the eight Marlins everyday players are 28 and younger.  The two 28 year olds, Justin Bour (ankle sprain) and Dee Gordon (PED suspension) are the only players from the starting lineup to be placed on the disabled list this season.

Other than Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins pitching staff has been remarkably healthy.  Most importantly, Jose Fernandez has been the dominant starting pitcher he was always supposed to be.

The Nationals being so health is quite remarkable.  Each and every season, players like Daniel Murphy, Anthony RendonStephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman were usually good for at least one disabled list stint during the course of the season.  So far this year, Starsburg had a short stint on the disabled list, and Zimmerman just landed on the disabled list with a wrist contusion.

The reason why the Nationals are in a much better place injury wise is part luck, but it is mostly them doing things differently.  They created a larger and a multi disciplined medical team of experts to address injuries.  They have addressed each and every aspect of player preparation and health.  The result so far is a much healthier Nationals team both on and off the field.

The Nationals changing how they have approached injuries show how other teams have adapted and dealt with injuries better than the Mets – so have the other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots.  The Mets aren’t trailing in the Wild Card race due to their health.  In fact, they may still be in the race because the Dodgers and Cardinals have had to deal with more injuries than they have.

Its Time – The Mets Should Fire Terry Collins

Normally, you don’t fire someone until you have a viable replacement in place. It’s not the prudent course of action, and ultimately, you can make matters worse by acting off raw emotion to quickly fire someone. However, it’s time. The Mets need to move on from Terry Collins despite the lack of an obvious suitable replacement.

This isn’t said lightly. It was his ability to manage the clubhouse that kept the team together last summer until the Mets could make the trades to add Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Despite your impressions of his in-game management, Collins was the manager of a team that went to the World Series last year.

More than that, Collins appears to be a good man. He has written notes to Mets fans who are mourning the loss of a loved one. He stopped Spring Training practice so a young heart transplant survivor could meet his idols. Make no mistake, when you lose a human being of the caliber Collins is, your entire organization is worse off for it.

And yet, there comes a time when being a good person and past results need to be pushed aside. You need to focus on the job he’s doing and how he’s hurting the team.

This isn’t just about the Mets disappointing season thus far. You cannot pin a player underperforming on the manager alone even if Michael Conforto has regressed as the season progressed. Players certainly have to share in their responsibility as well. Furthermore, injuries have certainly played a part in this, and injuries cannot always be blamed on the manager.

It’s also not about Collins in-game management, which can be head-scratching at times. There are many factors at play to which we are not always privy. A player may feel under the weather or not ready to play in a game. Also, even if it may seem strange to people, a manager should be allowed to draw from 48 years of baseball experience to play a hunch every so often.

No, the reason why Collins needs to go is his decision making process and how it has hurt the team.

In April, there was his ill-advised decision to pitch Jim Henderson the day after he threw a career high 34 pitches. It was even worse when you consider Henderson is pitching in his first full season after having had his second shoulder surgery. Eventually, Henderson landed on the disabled list due to a shoulder impingement. Collins’ excuse for pitching Henderson was Henderson telling him before the game that “he felt great.

That signals that what was Collins’ greatest strength is also his biggest weakness. He puts too much trust in his players leading Collins to sometimes play players when they shouldn’t be playing.

It was the big issue with Game 5 of the World Series. He let Matt Harvey talk his way back into the ninth inning despite Collins belief that the Mets should go to Jeurys Familia in that spot. That moment wasn’t about whether anyone thought it was the right move to let Harvey stay in the game. It was about Collins thinking it wasn’t he right move and his letting the player control the situtation.

Speaking of Familia, Collins recently overworked him as well. Over a six day stretch from July 22nd to July 27th, Familia had worked in four games throwing 76 pitches. He was tiring, and in his last appearance, Familia finally blew his first save. The following game the Mets got seven innings from Jacob deGrom, and the rest of the bullpen was fairly rested and ready to go. Instead, Collins went back to Familia who would blow his second save in a row. Collins’ excuse? He was going to sit Familia until Familia approached him pre-game and told him he was ready, willing, and able to pitch.

With Henderson, Harvey, and Familia, it appears that Collins is losing control to the players. That seemed all the more apparent during the Cespedes golfing drama. The Mets star player and key to their entire lineup had been hobbled for over a month due to a quad injury, and yet he continued to golf everyday. That was news to Collins who said, “I didn’t know he played golf until you guys brought it up. Had it been bothering him then, he would’ve said something about it, but not a word.” (Ryan Hatch, NJ.com).

It is not fair to blame Collins for Cespedes’ injury. It also isn’t fair to blame Collins for Cespedes playing golf. However, your star player is injured, and his injury is severely hampering your team. Doesn’t a manager have an obligation to speak with Cespedes knowing he is an avid golfer that played golf throughout the postseason last year despite having a shoulder injury?

On it’s own the Cespedes golf situation would be overblown as well as the aforementioned pitching decisions. If that was the only issue, you could argue Collins should be permitted to stay on as manager. However, his decision making this past week was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

On August 5th, the Mets lost a game 4-3. The fourth and decisive run was set-up by a J.D. Martinez double. Upon replay, it appeared that Matt Reynolds had held the tag on Martinez appeared to came off the bag. Reynolds looked into the dugout, but there would be no challenge. Now, that’s not necessarily Collins’ fault as he is relying upon the advise of the replay adviser. However, it was important to denote this when setting the stage for what happened the following night.

The Mets trailed the Tigers 7-6 in the top of the ninth. Jay Bruce started a two out rally in the top of of the ninth, and he would try to score from second off a Travis d’Arnaud single. Martinez would throw him out at the plate, and the Mets just walked off the field without challenging the play to see if there was a missed tag or if Jarrod Saltalamacchia was illegally blocking the plate. Why? As Collins said himself, “Because I didn’t think about it — that’s why. Plain and simple.” (Ken Davidoff, New York Post).

The Mets literally lose the game without that challenge. They lost the night before, in part, because they failed to challenge a play where it appeared Martinez was out at second. Even with all of that, Collins still didn’t at least try to challenge the play to try to get the tying run home.

As if that wasn’t enough, there was the matter of why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t pinch running for Bruce in that spot. Collins didn’t choose Nimmo as a pinch runner because he simply doesn’t know which one of his players is faster:

When you cede decision making to the players, when you fail to do everything possible to win games, and when you don’t fully know the capabilities of every player on your roster, it is time to go.

Time to Make a Run

The Mets have not won back-t0-back games since over a month ago.  At that time, they have gone from three back in the division and leading the race for the second Wild Card.  They have seen Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Reyes go on the disabled list.  Matt Harvey had season ending surgery.  The Mets have seen themselves fall to nine back in the division.

Yet, the Mets are still in the thick of the Wild Card race.

After a much needed day off, the Mets begin a six game homestand against two of the worst teams in baseball in the Diamondbacks and the Padres.  After that the Mets begin a West Coast trip starting with the Diamondbacks.  These are nine extremely winnable games.  If the Mets are a playoff team, they will steamroll through the Diamondbacks and the Padres and take possession of the second Wild Card spot.

Even better, they should have some help coming soon.  Jim Henderson, Zack Wheeler, and Reyes are on rehab assignments in St. Lucie.  Adding these health players along with a Michael Conforto, who hit an opposite field home run yesterday, gives you some optimism in what has mostly been a frustrating season for both him and the team.

All that anger and frustration can go away over the next nine games against two bad baseball teams.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online 

It’s Time to Fire Terry Collins

Normally, you don’t fire someone until you have a viable replacement in place. It’s not the prudent course of action, and ultimately, you can make matters worse by acting off raw emotion to quickly fire someone. However, it’s time. The Mets need to move on from Terry Collins despite the lack of an obvious suitable replacement.

This isn’t said lightly. It was his ability to manage the clubhouse that kept the team together last summer until the Mets could make the trades to add Kelly JohnsonJuan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Despite your impressions of his in-game management, Collins was the manager of a team that went to the World Series last year.

More than that, Collins appears to be a good man. He has written notes to Mets fans who are mourning the loss of a loved one. He stopped Spring Training practice so a young heart transplant survivor could meet his idols. Make no mistake, when you lose a human being of the caliber Collins is, your entire organization is worse off for it.

And yet, there comes a time when being a good person and past results need to be pushed aside. You need to focus on the job he’s doing and how he’s hurting the team.

This isn’t just about the Mets disappointing season thus far.  You cannot pin a player underperforming on the manager alone even if Michael Conforto has regressed as the season progressed.  Players certainly have to share in their responsibility as well.  Furthermore, injuries have certainly played a part in this, and injuries cannot always be blamed on the manager.

It’s also not about Collins in-game management, which can be head-scratching at times.  There are many factors at play to which we are not always privy.  A player may feel under the weather or not ready to play in a game.  Also, even if it may seem strange to people, a manager should be allowed to draw from 48 years of baseball experience to play a hunch every so often.

No, the reason why Collins needs to go is his decision making process and how it has hurt the team.

In April, there was his ill-advised decision to pitch Jim Henderson the day after he threw a career high 34 pitches.  It was even worse when you consider Henderson is pitching in his first full season after having had his second shoulder surgery.  Eventually, Henderson landed on the disabled list due to a shoulder impingement.  Collins’ excuse for pitching Henderson was Henderson telling him before the game that “he felt great.

That signals that what was Collins’ greatest strength is also his biggest weakness.  He puts too much trust in his players leading Collins to sometimes play players when they shouldn’t be playing.

It was the big issue with Game 5 of the World Series.  He let Matt Harvey talk his way back into the ninth inning despite Collins belief that the Mets should go to Jeurys Familia in that spot.  That moment wasn’t about whether anyone thought it was the right move to let Harvey stay in the game.  It was about Collins thinking it wasn’t he right move and his letting the player control the situtation.

Speaking of Familia, Collins recently overworked him as well.  Over a six day stretch from July 22nd to July 27th, Familia had worked in four games throwing 76 pitches.  He was tiring, and in his last appearance, Familia finally blew his first save.  The following game the Mets got seven innings from Jacob deGrom, and the rest of the bullpen was fairly rested and ready to go.  Instead, Collins went back to Familia who would blow his second save in a row.  Collins’ excuse?  He was going to sit Familia until Familia approached him pre-game and told him he was ready, willing, and able to pitch.

With Henderson, Harvey, and Familia, it appears that Collins is losing control to the players.  That seemed all the more apparent during the Cespedes golfing drama.  The Mets star player and key to their entire lineup had been hobbled for over a month due to a quad injury, and yet he continued to golf everyday.  That was news to Collins who said, “I didn’t know he played golf until you guys brought it up. Had it been bothering him then, he would’ve said something about it, but not a word.”  (Ryan Hatch, NJ.com).

It is not fair to blame Collins for Cespedes’ injury.  It also isn’t fair to blame Collins for Cespedes playing golf.  However, your star player is injured, and his injury is severely hampering your team.  Doesn’t a manager have an obligation to speak with Cespedes knowing he is an avid golfer that played golf throughout the postseason last year despite having a shoulder injury?

On it’s own the Cespedes golf situation would be overblown as well as the aforementioned pitching decisions.  If that was the only issue, you could argue Collins should be permitted to stay on as manager.  However, his decision making this past week was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

On August 5th, the Mets lost a game 4-3.  The fourth and decisive run was set-up by a J.D. Martinez double.  Upon replay, it appeared that Matt Reynolds had held the tag on Martinez appeared to came off the bag.  Reynolds looked into the dugout, but there would be no challenge.  Now, that’s not necessarily Collins’ fault as he is relying upon the advise of the replay adviser.  However, it was important to denote this when setting the stage for what happened the following night.

The Mets trailed the Tigers 7-6 in the top of the ninth.  Jay Bruce started a two out rally in the top of of the ninth, and he would try to score from second off a Travis d’Arnaud single.  Martinez would throw him out at the plate, and the Mets just walked off the field without challenging the play to see if there was a missed tag or if Jarrod Saltalamacchia was illegally blocking the plate.  Why?  As Collins said himself, “Because I didn’t think about it — that’s why. Plain and simple.”  (Ken Davidoff, New York Post).

The Mets literally lose the game without that challenge.  They lost the night before, in part, because they failed to challenge a play where it appeared Martinez was out at second.  Even with all of that, Collins still didn’t at least try to challenge the play to try to get the tying run home.

As if that wasn’t enough, there was the matter of why Brandon Nimmo wasn’t pinch running for Bruce in that spot.  Collins didn’t choose Nimmo as a pinch runner because he simply doesn’t know which one of his players is faster:

When you cede decision making to the players, when you fail to do everything possible to win games, and when you don’t fully know the capabilities of every player on your roster, it is time to go.

Applying the “A Time to Kill Test” to Cespedes’ Golfing

In the movie, A Time to Kill, an all white jury in the deep South was set to convict Carl Lee Hailey, a black man, until his young white lawyer, Jake Brigance, stood before the jury of his peers and gave the closing argument of a lifetime:

What he did was absolutely brilliant.  He took the same exact story and presented it to the jury exactly how it happened to a group of people that know what happened.  The only thing he changed was the person.  Instead of it being Carl Lee Hailey’s daughter, it was a little girl that could very well be close to them.  Ultimately, that is what made the story hit home; that was what made them change their opinion.

Overall, the “A Time to Kill Test” is a good test to use whenever passing judgment on anything including how you feel about a player in a particular situation.

If you do not think it was a big deal that Yoenis Cespedes was playing golf with an injured quad, ask yourself would your opinion have changed if that was Matt Harvey?  If you had a problem with Cespedes playing golf, would you have had the same opinion if you discovered David Wright was the one playing golf or taking part in any other activity that would have hampered his injury?  Would it even matter if Jose Reyes or Asdrubal Cabrera were taking part in recreational activities that could have possibly had an effect on their ability to get back on the field from their perspective injuries?  Essentially, no matter what the situation, choose another player, preferably one on the other end of the spectrum, and see if your opinion would change.

Overall, from looking at things from that perspective, it would be fair to say Cespedes shouldn’t have been playing golf while he was injured as it could have prevented him from getting back on the field.  It would be fair to say his playing golf was ill advised because the possibility remained that he could have exacerbated the injury.

Sure, it is possible that your perspective may change if it was Harvey or Wright in the same situation, but that’s the issue.  If it was the same situation, your opinion on the matter shouldn’t change.

Cespedes Put Golf Before the Mets

Yesterday, Yoenis Cespedes began his day with a round of golf with Kevin Millar . . . 

. . . and he ended the day on the disabled list. 

By all reports, Cespedes has been playing golf each and every day since he’s been injured. 

Cespedes’ injury was painful enough to prevent him from flying out and participating in the All Star Game. It was so bad he told the Mets he could no longer play center field. It was so painful he would miss games. Overall, his quad injury would affect his ability to play baseball, but he would not let it interfere with him playing golf each and every day. 

Did the Mets botch this?  Sure, they always mishandle injuries. It’s why they talked Steven Matz out of getting surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. They also talked Juan Lagares out of surgery initially. The solution for Matt Harvey was him roughing it out without getting a full examination. They wouldn’t put a hobbled Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera immediately on the disabled list. There are more injuries they’ve mismanaged both this year and in the entire Ray Ramirez Error, sorry Era. 

The Cespedes situation is yet another example of the Mets mismanaging injuries. They could’ve out him on the disabled list at the All Star Break to minimize the amount of games he would miss. They could’ve told him not to play golf. 

However, they shouldn’t have to tell a 30 year old man making $27.5 million to rest his legs so he could return to the field as soon as possible. They shouldn’t have to tell him not to let down his teammates in the middle of a pennant race so he could hang out with Kevin Millar on the golf course. No, this is something Cespedes should just no. He either didn’t know, or he knew it and didn’t care.  

Cespedes showed a complete lack of self awareness saying he needed to stop playing for 10 days to get healthy:

It wasn’t clear from that statement if he meant golf or baseball. Given his actions over the past month, he probably meant baseball. 

Yes, the Mets mismanaged this injury like they mismanage all of their injuries. However, Cespedes prioritized his golf game over the game he is paid to play. Hopefully, Cespedes will refrain from playing golf these next 15 days to let him get back on the field. 

After a month of golf and his sporadic play, it’s difficult to be optimistic that Cespedes will now treat this injury seriously and put baseball first. 

Trading Dilson Herrera Was a Bad Idea

Coming into the season, the Mets were high on Dilson Herrera, and they viewed him as the second baseman of the near future.  It is why the Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk, and they eschewed other long term free agent options to trade for Neil Walker who was a year away from free agency.  However, the Mets made it perfectly clear they were willing to forego Herrera as the second baseman of the future if the right player came along.  That is why the Mets doggedly pursued Ben Zobrist in the offseason.  For the right piece or for the right price, the Mets were going to move on from Herrera to make the team better.

It is just hard to believe that player was Jay Bruce.

There is a lot to like about Bruce.  He is a traditional slugger who is leading the league in RBI.  He has a very affordable team option.  He is insurance against Yoenis Cespedes missing an extended period of time this year, and quite possibly insurance against him leaving in free agency.  He also helps with a sluggish Mets offense and with the Mets inability to hit with runners for scoring position.  He is also more of the same.

This is a Mets team full of low OBP, high slugging outfielders – Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto.  With the exception of Cespedes, all of the Mets current outfield options are left-handed batters.  What this team doesn’t have is a center fielder.  Currently, the best defensive center fielder on the team is Alejandro De Aza.  While he is the team’s hottest hitter and best defender, it is hard to imagine he is going to be an everyday player while the team sits one of Granderson or Conforto everyday.  In sum, Bruce is a nice offensive upgrade, but he doesn’t solve the teams problems.  With that in mind, it seems like Herrera was a steep price to pay for someone that doesn’t solve what ails the team.

It’s also selling low on Herrera in what has been a tough year for him.  Herrera has gone from a .327/.382/.511 hitter to a .276/.327/.462 hitter in AAA this year.  He has had nagging shoulder issues, and he has fallen into some bad habits at the plate.  It has been the first time the 22 year old has struggled at the minor league level.  However, given the fact that he is still young for his level, and the fact that his struggles are closely associated with an injury, there is every reason to believe Herrera will rebound and become the All Star second baseman the Mets envisioned he would become.  That is a steep price to pay for a duplicative player that does not solve the Mets problems.

We are just seeing it now with Michael Fulmer in Detroit.  Fulmer was the big time prospect the Mets traded last year.  He is the leading Rookie of the Year contender, and he is certainly in the Cy Young conversation with him going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP.  With each and every dominant start, it is a stark reminder how much the Mets need him this year with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery and Zack Wheeler being well behind schedule to return to the rotation.  Overall, the idea behind trading Fulmer was to trade from depth to acquire a missing piece . . . a missing piece that was an imperfect fit.  As we see last year, the Mets supposed depth was an allusion.

Now, the Mets did trade from depth with Herrera.  Gavin Cecchini could move from shortstop to second, which now seems to be his destiny with the meteoric rise of Amed RosarioWilmer Flores could move over there next year.  The Mets could always re-sign Neil Walker or another free agent or make another trade.  Depending on David Wright‘s health, Jose Reyes could move from third to second.  There are any number of factors at play, but as we see again this year, the Mets can never have enough depth as this team seems more snakebitten than any other team in the majors.  With that in mind, the Mets are now less deep at second base, and they are quite possibly without their best second base option for next year.

The Mets traded away another big time prospect for another slugging corner outfielder.  Hopefully, Bruce will have a similar effect on the Mets as Cespedes did last year.  The Mets are going to need that type of performance to help them get back to the postseason.  They are going to need that type of performance to help Mets fans forget about the player they gave away in Herrera.

Jay Bruce Solves Some Problems While Exacerbating Others

Right now, if you were going to list what the Mets problems were, two things that would be discussed ad nauseaum would be the offense and hitting with runners in scoring position.  While it has not been discussed as frequently, Yoenis Cespedes‘ and Juan Lagares‘ injuries also make center field an issue for the Mets.

The Mets acquisition of Jay Bruce presumably solves the first two Mets problems while only further confounding the center field issue.

First, the offense.  There is no doubt that Jay Bruce is your classic left-handed slugger that should be hitting in an RBI position in your lineup.  This year Bruce is hitting .265/.316/.559 with 22 doubles, six triples, 25 homers, and a major league leading 80 RBI.  He also isn’t a Great American Ballpark creation as Bruce has hit better on the road.  In road games, Bruce has slashed .277/.318/.582.  More importantly to Mets fans, Bruce is hitting .360/.406/.719 with runners in scoring position.  Ideally, the Mets would bat him fifth in the lineup as Bruce has been hitting .290/.340/.603 from that spot in the order.

Still, there is some cause for concern with Bruce.  As we see with his stats, he is not nor has he ever been a great on base guy.  He is also a guy who is a platoon type of bat as he is hitting .250/.287/.491 off of lefties this year.  With that in mind, the Mets might have just added a player that is more of the same.

He is also coming off two straight seasons that saw him hit a combined .222/.288/.406 while averaging 22 homers and 76 RBI.  If his July, where he hit .218/.289/.529, is any indication, he might be becoming that type of player again.  Furthermore, Bruce has not hit well at all in Citi Field.  In 21 games, Bruce has hit .186/.275/.443 with five homers and 13 RBI.  Hopefully, some of that is a short sample size and some of that is Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.

Regardless, Bruce is an offensive upgrade for an injured and under-performing Mets team.  However, he is not a defensive upgrade for a team that needs a center field solution.

If reports are true, Bruce is being brought here to play right field rather than to play first base in place of James Loney.  That would shift Granderson from right to center.  As we saw in the one game Granderson played in center this year, there is a reason why he has not played center regularly since 2012.  The other issue is that while Granderson has had a down year defensively in right field, he has been much better than Bruce, who has posted a -11.5 UZR and a -13 DRS this past year.  Over the previous two seasons, Bruce has averaged a -5.2 UZR and a -1 DRS meaning he is worse this year than he has been over his career.

With Bruce’s struggles, Granderson’s inability to play center, and Yoenis Cespedes playing on one leg, this outfield should be reminiscent, if not worse, than the Cliff FloydRoger CedenoJeromy Burnitz outfield that was seen as an unmitigated disaster defensively.

The other issue is where does this leave Michael Conforto?  After everything that has happened this year, are the Mets really going to make him a bench player?  Is he going to platoon with another left-handed batter?  Does he move to first base?  Aren’t you now forced to send him down to AAA until September call-ups?  This really leaves your best young hitter and future of your team in a lurch.  With all that in mind, it is a very curious move, especially when there was no corresponding move to address any of the Mets other needs.

Overall, Bruce solves some of the Mets problems while exacerbating some others.  The best way to deal with all of these issues is for both he and his new teammates to just go out there and hit.